Gleeman & The Geek, Ep 584: Bullpen Blech

[John Bonnes]

Aaron and John talk about the Twins' bullpen meltdowns in Cleveland, the shocking departure of pitching coach Wes Johnson for LSU, and why the need for more relief talent is a bigger issue than anything else.  You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. 

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[Guest]

Just listened and according to the show the five games lost to Cleveland the Twins had, at one time, a max Win Probability for each game of 92%, 98%, 82%, 95%, and 89%.  Based on my third grade probabilities class doesn't this work out to the Twins have an overall chance of 62.5% to have won all five of these games.

(0.92 x 0.98 x 0.82 x .95 x 0.89 = 0.625, 62.5%)

Conversely, the chance that Cleveland wins all five games is 0.08 x 0.02 x 0.18 x 0.05 x 0.11 = 0.00000158, 0.000158%) 

Is there someone out there that can confirm, or correct, my math?  Somehow I can believe the Twins should have one all five 62% of the time given the numbers, but Cleveland's chance is so miniscule I can hardly believe it.

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, Verified Member said:

Is there someone out there that can confirm, or correct, my math?