What I would have done and my predictions for the season

[KnoblauchWasFramed]

What Could Have Been - A Look At The Smoke And Mirrors Job The Pohlad's Pulled On All Of Us.  

2021 Payroll - $120,084,606 - 2022 Payroll - $110,859,524 - Difference ($9,225,082)

2022 Payroll - $110,859,524 - 2022 League Average Payroll - $133,435,408 - Difference ($22,575,884)

Now let's take a look at some pitching rotation and bullpen signings the Twins could have made and still be at, or below, the league average payroll.  The only 2 assumptions here is that if the Twins sign a high(er) end SP then they don't take on Dylan Bundy at $4,000,000 and the Twins still make every other trade they already have done.

Scenario 1 of what the Twins could have done;

	$110,859,524
dylan bundy	($4,000,000)
SONNY GRAY
JON GRAY	$15,000,000
JOE RYAN
BAILEY OBER
GRIFFIN JAX
TYLER DUFFEY
JOE SMITH
JORGE ALCALA
ARCHIE BRADLEY	$3,750,000
COLLIN McHUGH	$4,000,000
CALEB THIELBAR
TAYLOR ROGERS
	$129,609,524

Scenario 2 of what the Twins could have done;

	$110,859,524
dylan bundy	($4,000,000)
SONNY GRAY
EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ	$15,000,000
STEVEN MATZ	$8,000,000
JOE RYAN
BAILEY OBER
TYLER DUFFEY
JOE SMITH
JORGE ALCALA
GRIFFIN JAX
BRAD HAND	$6,000,000
CALEB THIELBAR
TAYLOR ROGERS
	$135,859,524

Look at the difference a few moves that just get us to the league average make.  And these moves could have been done and allowed the Twins to keep every single prospect.  Right now without anymore moves the Twins are almost $10M under where they were last year.  But the Twins take on Correa for one guaranteed year and we all turn around and immediately buy 100,000 tickets.  The cheapest ticket is $18.00 and, of course, that not what everyone bought.  Let's take the median Twins ticket price of $45.00 and call that a $4,500,000 profit before food and parking and souvenirs.  And let's assume that in the week and a half since the signing the Twins sold another 100K tickets for a possible profit of $9m on top of the $9m in savings from last years payroll.  The Pohlad's have already essentially recovered more than half of Correa's salary.     

So while I'm very excited to see what Correa can do at Target Field let's not let the Pohlad's confuse us with the smoke and mirror show they just pulled.  Again, they have refused to do even the minimums to put a competitive product on the field even once after we all bought them their new $555m stadium 12 years ago.

Here's the prediction on what I think happens If we go into the season with the current pitching staff.  This is easily a 85+ loss team.  Correa then gets traded at the deadline after the Twins paid half of his salary, $15.5m, but the Twins keep all of the extra profits from the ticket sales and save millions by trading him.  And then they tell us fans, "Well, we were willing to spend money but the team didn't win so we got some great future prospects out of the deal.  Better luck next year."  And us Twins fans will do what we always do... fall for it and start dreaming of the lineup we'll have in 2025 with so many Top 100 prospects in the farm system.  And the Pohlad's and the FO live off the good will of the Correa signing for 3-4 years.

Further, since the opening of Target Field the Twins record is 874 - 968 (0.474) with 8 seasons below .500, won 3 Central Division Titles, and went 0 - 9 in the playoffs.  Attendance averaged 2.57m a year.  From 2001-2009 in the Metrodome the twins record was 794 - 665 (0.544) with 1 season under .500, won 5 Central Division Titles, and went 3 -  19 in the playoffs,  Attendance averaged 1.89m a year.

Brand new stadium, more expensive tickets and more TV and advertising revenue, an embarrassing "winning" percentage but still averaging 680k more fans a year in spite of that, and what have the fans gotten in return for all of it?

Let's discuss...

[gil4]

There was the new-stadium attendance boost for the first 4 years, but 2013 was the last time attendance was higher than it was in the last year of the dome.

But  I agree ticket prices are higher, there's more TV money, and they could have done more to compete, but chose not to.  An actual commitment to winning would probably be a net positive to the bottom line.