Two paths to building a winner: Part 1

[Ryan_K]

The thought process

I wanted to take a second chance at building an offseason blue print now that the 40 man roster has been set, and a number of previously desired FA option are now longer available. I could see two different paths that I will discuss below. The first option makes us a World Series Contender, while the second is more of building a sustainable contender with needing some luck. The main fork in the road hinges on where the Twins believe Royce Lewis is on recovery and his trajectory. I will defer to their judgement on if he can be an average or better MLB starting SS on a playoff team. If they think his injury could cause him to loose a step not be as agile, then option #1 is the one to go with. However, if they think he can be the Twins Jeter for many seasons, than that will open the flexibility provided by option two. I will discuss option two in a subsequent post as I don't want this to be too long winded. 

• Option #1 "2019-2020 Offseason Strategy 2.0" - strikeout on top tier pitchers and pivot to an offensive juggernaut
• Option #2  "Spread the wealth"

Option #1 Run to Correa

For option #1, this centers on signing Carlos Correa. To use my Spanish, Corre a Correa = Run to Correa. I would think he would need a 10 year $350 mm deal to sign here. My thought is you can't waste Buxton's prime and what better way to capitalize than having the first two picks of the 2012 draft together. In addition, I think there is a need for some quality pitching to make use of this potential lineup--dream on it for a second.

• LF Arraez
• 2B Polanco
• CF Byron Buxton
• SS Carlos Correa
• 3B Donaldson
• C Garver
• 1B Kirilloff
• DH Sano
• RF Kepler

There is no reprieve for the opposing team. If Kirilloff, Sano, and Kepler are the worst hitters on your team, good things will happen.

Supplement the core with strong SPs

The pitching additions would be on the trade front. Using MLB Trade Values, I composed a swap of Chris Bassitt in exchange for Dobnak, Duran, and Rodriguez + $1.2mm to buy out Dobnak's options. The A's get a borderline top 100 arm depending on the prospect site, Dobnak is a steal as a #4 SP when healthy and his contract makes him appealing, while Rodriguez is a good upside lottery ticket. Bassitt is going to be 33, so his next contract would be starting in his age 34 season limiting the potential number of years should the twins want an extension, plus we will get draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere and our pick would be higher than the A's since we are recipients of revenue sharing. The second trade is with the Reds getting Sonny Gray for Larnach, Strotman, Steer, and De Andrade. Gray is 32 for all of next year and has an option for 2023. The Reds get back two lottery tickets, a former top prospect, and a SP who may have interesting stuff. With both these teams, getting rid of salary is a big factor. A's let Melvin go, and the Red's didn't get much for Iglesias.

 

Proposal & Business Case

To accomplish option one, the sacrifice is using rookies for the bench and bullpen, and needing a $10mm payroll increase. However, it gets a legendary lineup, two TOR SP, and leaves room for our prospects this year and going into next with players who likely won't command long term deals. The other big reason for the added star power is according to an old Pioneer Press report from 2016, the Twins current deal expires in 2023. The Twins should want to be at the negotiating table with the leverage of having a great product and to help increase their $40mm in TV revenue to that of other mid sized markets

 

This approach I feels strongly resembles the 2019-2020 offseason where we didn't land a single big name pitcher and moved to strengthen a strength. This does that as well as upgrades the defense for the long term with the only top prospects surrendered being Duran and Larnach. Celestino showed well in AAA after being sent down and could play all three spots. Imagine a late inning defense of Celestino, Buxton, and Kepler--we are transported back to the days of nothing falls but raindrop days. Miranda would get time at 2B, 3B, and LF and a similar approach would be used for Arraez.

 

I think Correa is the only FA worth spending on as he is only 27 and plays elite defense. Story is more average defense and good bat, Castellanos & Bryant are great hitters, but we don't need more corner types. Bassitt could return or leave depending on how the Twins SP prospects develop, and if one starts dominating like an 06 Liriano then Bundy, Ober, or Ryan could move to the pen. Gray provides that second top of the rotation arm critical in playoff series, and I think they would be great role models for the young pitchers coming up. I would encourage people to look at the Baseball Savant profiles of both Gray and Bassitt, they seem much more desirable than traditional big names and MLB Trade Values doesn't have them costing a lot

 

Wrap up

I say this is my favorite of my two options, because of the lineup this gives, keeps most of the tier 1 prospects, the potential drawing power in TV/Subscription negotiations, and still allows the young SP pipeline to be active if they show they are ready, while still giving the fans a chance at a World Series, if we can approve an additional $13mm dollars.

 

I would welcome feedback and thoughts as I work on finalizing Part 2. I will say it is less exciting on a brand name basis, but I think the moves may be interesting It raises the floor, but without as much ceiling as this option. My previous entry was here https://twinsdaily.com/forums/topic/53986-offseason-blueprint-reinvest-restructure-retry/#comment-1084460, and with hindsight $13mm extra plus a few good prospects gets a world a difference.  Thank you and enjoy