Analyzing a pitching options vs when best to acquire it

[Brandon]

During the regular season, How much would going with Hughes/ Sanchez/ Mejia/ May/ Gonsalves/ Romero/ Slegers / Littell cost the Twins in wins over trading 3 or 4 good prospects and Kepler for Archer?  While I get that Tampa Bay would get more cost effective talent and more talent overall in that trade,  This would also help set us up for our run at the top with a low cost ace for the next 4 years.  Here is how our rotation sets up this season with the trade

 

Archer

Odorizzi

Santana

Berrios

Gibson   

 

Mejia/ Hughes/ Sanchez/ May/ Slegers/ Gonsalves/ Romero / Littell as depth options

 

and without it:

Odorizzi

Santana

Berrios

Gibson

Mejia/ Hughes/ Sanchez/ May/ Slegers/ Gonsalves/ Romero / Littell

 

For this season I suspect it will cost us a few wins but with Hughes pitching with better velocity so far.  (His endurance will get tested this year and I suspect Romero and Gonsalves along with Mejia will be ready to step in when Hughes does wear out this season as he builds back up after 2 seasons of a low workload and surgeries.  

 

Getting Archer makes us so much better on paper to start the season.  It also makes the rotation a top 10-15 rotation and maybe a little higher.  With a top 13-18 bullpen and a top 3 offense and top 10 defense we should be a strong team capable of low to mid 90's wins.  Especially in our division.  Though some 2nd half breakout performances will need to continue for that to happen.  

 

By not getting Archer now we still have prospects available to trade later on in the season should there be a need and if there is a pitcher available that fits our needs.  With all of our new acquisitions it may make more sense to put the acquiring on hold till after the draft and maybe even after the all star break so we can see what all we do need for the stretch run.  

 

Next Season would shape up like this:

Archer

Santana (option may not get picked up)

Berrios

Odorizzi

Gibson (if tendered a contract)  Pineda, May, Mejia, Gonsalves, Romero, Thorpe, Littell (others may be ready in the 2nd half of next season and some of these pitchers may be traded for Archer or others by then)  

 

Honestly I feel we do have enough depth to start the season as is and if it appears we need another starter for next season we can revisit the Archer trade scenario as I doubt he gets traded without Tampa circling back around and asking us to top the offer they have before they pull the trigger.  I think the biggest keys to if we make an Archer trade down the road is:

 

1.  How does Santana pitch when he comes back from his surgery?  and will we pick up his option?

2.  How does Hughes pitch?  so far he has regained some of his velocity but he felt good last year too but without the velocity gain.  

3.  How do our starting pitching prospects develop?  will we have enough ready to step into the rotation and grow into the starters we need?

4.  Gibson?  does he pitch well enough to stay another season or does he get non-tendered?

 

I think we will have most of these questions answered by June so if we need to revisit the Archer trade we can and have time to put together the best deal we can from our side of the equation.