Fernando Romero - 2017

[goulik]

I think Romero seems like someone who should be jumping towards the top of the Twins prospects list. Is Gonsalves really still ahead of Romero? I look forward to seeing a Rotation that starts Berrios, Romero, May, Gonsalves, Mejia in 2019... Possibly 2018 with a Santana mixed in.

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Appearance No. 22 (08/07/17)

 

Fernando’s lengthy streak of good-to-excellent starts was bound to end sometime.   What is concerning is that it ended in a manner that suggests he may have hit the proverbial wall.    Fernando completed his allotted 5 innings but was hit around by the Jackson Generals (the Southern League’s best offense).   When he was replaced, the Lookouts were down 6-3 and went on to lose 9-3.

 

Fernando faced 23 batters over 5.0 innings giving up 6 runs on 9 hits (including 4 doubles).   Not only was he hit early and often—all 9 hits were given up in the first 3 innings—but he failed to strike out a single batter.   This from a pitcher averaging 9.4 SO/9 coming into the game.   In fact, the only other time Fernando failed to strike out at least one was a 5-batter appearance in the Dominican Summer League in 2012, his first year in pro ball.   Needless to say, management should be watching his next start intently for further indications of fatigue.   I’ll be hoping for a bounce back performance that convincingly shows this game was just an aberration.   One positive takeaway was that Fernando retired the side in order in both the 4^th and 5^th innings.

 

Finally, I thought it would be interesting to calculate a few stats for the games Fernando pitched between his last two poor outings—a period covering 13 starts made between May 24^th to August 2^nd.    I concede it's cherry-picking (which I generally don’t like to engage in) but, in this case, doing so illustrates how impressive he was during this extended period:

 

ERA: 1.40

WHIP: 1.10

SO/9: 9.9

H/9: 6.8

 

 

Box Score:

 

Player                          IP        H         R         ER       BB       SO       HR      ERA

F. Romero                   5.0       9          6          6          0          0          0          2.96

 

 

Season Stats:

 

IP:    115.2

ERA:    2.96

FIP:  2.76

WHIP:  1.28

AVG:   .243

GO/AO:   1.56

K/9:  9.0

BB/9:  3.2

 

                       

Check these webpages for more granular stats for Fernando:

 

MiLB.com:

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t498&player_id=622864#/career/R/pitching/2017/ALL

 

Baseball Reference:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=romero000fer

 

Fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa657418&position=P

[Dance with Disco Dan]

By way of update, Fernando has not pitched for 10 days and is not scheduled to pitch tonight.  That will be four straight times he is skipped in the rotation.   I cannot find anything online about this situation other than the Tweet (below) from Mike Berardino that was brought to the board's attention on Sunday.  

 

"RHP Fernando Romero is healthy, per #mntwins farm director Brad Steil. Was simply pushed back from today's scheduled start. Jorge instead."

— Mike Berardino (@MikeBerardino) August 13, 2017

 

Hopefully, Brad Steil was being forthright and Fernando's inaction is not injury related. In my view, his last outing was a negative outlier that suggested possible injury and/or fatigue.  Fingers crossed.

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Appearance No. 23 (08/019/17)

 

Following one of his worst performances of the season, Fernando was given 11 days off to rest, reset, and/or recover.    It didn’t help.    In this game, he had an even worse outing in which he failed to complete 5 innings and walked several batters in addition to giving up an uncharacteristic number of hits. The Tennessee Smokies were leading 6-1 when Fernando was replaced in the 5^th inning and went on to beat the Lookouts 6-4.

 

Fernando faced 25 batters over 4.1 innings giving up 6 runs on 8 hits (including 1 double and 1 home run).   He also issued 4 walks, threw a wild pitch that allowed a runner to score from third base, and struck out only 2 Smokies.   It also could have been worse had Fernando not battled hard in the 3^rd inning when the Smokies loaded the bases with no outs but scored only one run.   In short, nothing about this performance alleviates the concern that Fernando has an injury or serious arm fatigue.   The drop-off in performance has been precipitous and his ERA has jumped from 2.60 to 3.30 in just two games.   He is scheduled to pitch on his normal 5-days rest this week so, presumably, the Twins management is not yet concerned.   On a semi-positive note, the home run was only the 4^th he’s allowed this season (which is notably good over 120 innings).

 

 

Box Score:

 

Player                          IP        H         R         ER       BB       SO       HR      ERA

F. Romero                   4.1       8          6          6          4          2          1          3.30

 

 

Season Stats:

 

IP:    120

ERA:    3.30

FIP:  2.99

WHIP:  1.33

AVG:   .250

GO/AO:   1.56

K/9:  8.8

BB/9:  3.4

 

                       

Check these webpages for more granular stats for Fernando:

 

MiLB.com:

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t498&player_id=622864#/career/R/pitching/2017/ALL

 

Baseball Reference:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=romero000fer

 

Fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa657418&position=P

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Appearance No. 24 (08/24/17)

 

Fernando’s struggles continued against the Mississippi Braves.   He was hit hard for the third-straight game and trailed 6-2 when replaced after 5 innings.   The Lookouts went on to lose by that same score.

 

Fernando faced 25 batters over 5.0 innings giving up 6 runs (5 earned) on 9 hits (including 4 doubles).    His control was better than last game as he didn’t issue any walks but he hit a batter and apparently struggled with command giving up four extra-base hits.   Fernando was around the plate throwing 77 pitches with 53 for strikes but he struck out only 3 Braves.   Over his last three starts, Fernando has pitched 14.1 innings, given up 25 hits (!), 17 earned runs (10.68 ERA), and struck out 5 batters (3.14 K/9).   These numbers bear no relation to the previous 10 weeks of excellence.    I don’t know what his issues are or how he should be handled going forward.   As an interested observer, however, I am concerned about his health and disappointed that such a good season is finishing up on a down note.   That said, I am still hopeful Fernando will get back on track before the season ends.

 

 

Box Score:

 

Player                          IP        H         R         ER       BB       SO       HR      ERA

F. Romero                   5.0       9          6          5          0          3          0          3.53

 

 

Season Stats:

 

IP:    125.0

ERA:    3.53

FIP:  2.96

WHIP:  1.35

AVG:   .256

GO/AO:   1.56

K/9:  8.6

BB/9:  3.2

 

                       

Check these webpages for more granular stats for Fernando:

 

MiLB.com:

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t498&player_id=622864#/career/R/pitching/2017/ALL

 

Baseball Reference:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=romero000fer

 

Fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa657418&position=P

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Well, dammit. It turns out Fernando's recent poor performance was likely injury-related. The Lookouts placed Fernando on the 7-day DL with right shoulder impingement.  It is uncertain that he'll pitch again this season.  

 

I'm not up to speed on the distinctions between shoulder ailments but a quick Google search informed me that impingement is a precursor diagnosis to tendinitis or bursitis.  Here are a couple explanatory excepts from the web:

 

Impingement. When you raise your arm to shoulder height, the space between the acromion and rotator cuff narrows. The acromion can rub against (or "impinge" on) the tendon and the bursa, causing irritation and pain.

 

Shoulder impingement syndrome is a common cause of shoulder pain. Overhead activity of the shoulder, especially repeated activity, is a risk factor for shoulder impingement syndrome. Other risk factors include bone and joint abnormalities.With impingement syndrome, pain is persistent and affects everyday activities. Motions such as reaching up behind the back or reaching up overhead to put on a coat or blouse, for example, may cause pain. Over time, impingement syndrome can lead to inflammation of the rotator cuff tendons (tendinitis) and bursa (bursitis). If not treated appropriately, the rotator cuff tendons can start to thin and tear. (emphasis added).

 

So, an impingement diagnosis indicates the potential for a future rotator cuff tear.  This is obviously not good news. The non-surgical treatment for impingement is rest, stretching and non-steroid anti-inflammatory medicines.This regimen over 6-8 weeks is the most common treatment.  Of course, there is nothing common about treating a pitcher who is needs to make  multiple, high-effort throws per game.  A case could be made to move a pitcher prone to impingement to a bull-pen role to reduce the number of pitches required.  

 

We'll keep our fingers crossed that rest and treatment will get Fernando back to full health and performing like he did most of the summer.  We may have to wait until next spring before we know how this condition impacts the team's plans for Fernando going forward.