Early Draft Board - 2017 MLB Draft
Entry posted by Hrbowski ·
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Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics
Early 2017 draft board:
#1 – J.B. Bukauskas – rhp – University of North Carolina
Bukauskas has been on fire this spring, with a strikeout to walk ratio of 70/11 in 47 innings. Some scouts do not think he will be a starter because he is only 6’0”, but his pitching repertoire is better than any other in the draft class. Bukauskas’ upside is a top of the staff starter, and if he has to move into the bullpen he should become a great closer. If I were picking number one I would take him over any other player due to his combination of upside and a closer proximity to the majors than the other players in the class.
I do not view his size as a concern because if there has been any variance in the success of shorter versus taller pitchers, it has favored the shorter ones. Most taller right handed pitchers who were taken at the top of the draft because scouts viewed them as future workhorse starters never had their careers come to fruition. Meanwhile, smaller pitchers such as Tim Lincecum, Marcus Stroman, and Sonny Gray developed faster than the larger pitchers taken in the years they were drafted. To draw this thought to a conclusion, I do not buy into the philosophy of taller pitchers being better than smaller ones, and there is no data to back up this idea when you look at any sample of pitchers who have been taken in the first round.
#2 – D.L. Hall – lhp – Georgia High School
Hunter Greene has received more hype than any other prep pitcher this year, but Hall has as much upside as every other high school player. Hall’s fastball and curveball are both well above average, and with development his control will become good enough for him to head a rotation. Like Bukauskas, Hall is only 6’0”, yet scouts have not voiced concerns about his size to the same extent as they have about Bukauskas; that is probably due to his being a lefty. Considering everything, taking Hall would probably be the wisest move for a team looking for high school talent.
#3 – Alex Faedo – rhp – University of Florida
Faedo is the prototypical favorite of scouts: College righty, tall, and putting up good numbers against SEC competition. Although there is a lot to like about Faedo there are drawbacks, such as having had lower body injuries in the past. Since Faedo has not had any arm injuries some scouts do not feel that his health will be anything detrimental long term, but it could be a sign of his big body breaking down early. Faedo has a high ceiling, and if teams are willing to overlook his injury history he will be one of the first players to be drafted.
#4 - Jacob Heatherly – lhp – Alabama High School
Heatherly has not gotten much attention, but this lefty from Alabama is the most polished high school pitcher in the draft. Heatherly has four above-average pitches and advanced command for a prep pitcher, but the reason he is not considered a top-five pick by most scouts is because he does not have one pitch that is overly dominant. Heatherly’s repertoire gives him tools to work with, and his ceiling of a number two starter is appealing enough that a team should be willing to take a flyer on him high in the draft. One pitcher who Heatherly reminds me of is fellow Alabaman Braxton Garrett, who some readers might remember as the player I was high on very early last year, even though he was not considered a top ten player at the time. As the spring progressed others recognized Garrett’s potential and he was eventually taken seventh overall by the Marlins. Heatherly does not have the brilliance of Garrett, but he shows a similarity in being a lefty with an advanced feel for pitching.
#5 – Hunter Greene – rhp – California High School
Greene has long been the favorite to go number one in this draft, and even though I think he is overrated he does have a ton of potential. Since there has been no shortage of praise for Greene I will start out by giving the reasons I dislike him. The first reason is because his curveball is the only secondary pitch that is workable in games, and even though he has a fastball that occasionally touches 98 miles per hour he will not be able to get outs in the big leagues with just two pitches. Greene is working on a changeup, but it has not yet shown a ton of promise, and his command could become an issue that will hinder his development. Greene does have a high ceiling, yet I believe that I should warn Twins fans who are incessantly calling for the team to take him that there is a long path ahead, and that with the amount of development that Greene needs before becoming a major league ready starter, he may never survive the vicissitudes of the minor leagues.
#6 – Tanner Houck – rhp – University of Missouri
The comparisons of Houck to Max Scherzer have been rampant, and some of that could have to do with them sharing an alma mater. Another similarity is that they both use unorthodox deliveries, which has also raised eyebrows in the scouting world. Houck may have to go further to prove himself than other college pitchers, but if he does, he could move to the top of draft boards. Houck has a superb fastball and a secondary combination of a slider and changeup, which are both solid pitches.
#7 – Jeren Kendall – of – Vanderbilt
Kendall is the top college hitter in this draft, but that does not say a whole lot since this year is a very weak class for hitting. Kendall has been compared to Jacoby Ellsbury, and although he does show a lot of similarities on the baserunning and fielding sides of the game, he struggles to make contact at times. I will soon be writing a player profile for Kendall where I will cover him more closely.
The following players are a drop off from the previous ones, and they probably will not be getting a whole lot of attention from the teams picking first in the draft:
Brendan McKay is a two-way player who could be picked as either a first baseman or lefthanded pitcher. The Louisville Cardinal is a favorite for the Golden Spikes Award. Most scouts prefer him as pitcher.
Vanderbilt Commodore Kyle Wright got a lot of talk over the winter as a potential number one pick, but a rough spring has silenced that. Wright still has a ton of upside, and should go early in the draft.
The top high school hitter is Royce Lewis, who does not yet have a defensive home, and has one of the longest swings I have ever seen. He does have a ton of athleticism, and, if developed properly, he could be very rewarding for the team that drafts him.
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