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Defying History: a preview and prediction of game two with New York


Nash Walker

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blog-0265432001563901477.jpgThe Garvsauce delivered for Minnesota on Monday as they defeated the Yankees 8-6 in game one. Here is the full recap: http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/twins-game-recap-722-twins-turn-triple-play-mitch-garver-homers-twice-in-win-over-yankees-r8133

 

The Twins will send Kyle Gibson to the mound tonight. Gibson pitched well Thursday against Oakland, going seven strong and striking out seven to improve his record to 9-4. Gibson is now 6-1 at Target Field with a 3.71 ERA and 49 strikeouts in 53 1/3 innings pitched.

 

This will be Gibson's tenth start against New York. He is 1-6 with a 6.50 ERA against the pinstripes. Edwin Encarnacion is 10/33 with a 1.127 OPS and four homers, Gary Sanchez is 3/8 with two home runs, and Brett Gardner (knee) is 5/16 with a double and a triple off Gibson.

 

The Yankees are showing their top man on the hill in Domingo German. German is 12-2 in 15 starts this season. German threw six great innings against Tampa Bay on Thursday, striking out five and earning his third win of the month. German missed most of June with a hip flexor injury and has not reached 100 pitches since. He has not pitched more than six innings in a start since May 15th.

 

In his last start against Minnesota on May 5th, German struck out seven and allowed one run in 6 ⅔ innings in New York. The Twins are batting .152 with 19 strikeouts in 46 at-bats against German. Marwin Gonzalez has the best history, going 4/9 with a double.

 

The Yankees have the strongest bullpen in baseball and a dominant starter going tonight. The Twins have had a tendency to battle in games such as these but will have to force German into tough situations. If they can stay hot with the long ball and force him out early, their chances of winning greatly increase. Kyle Gibson will have to limit Encarnacion and the amount of walks he allows.

 

Projected Twins lineup:

Max Kepler CF

Jorge Polanco SS

Nelson Cruz DH

Eddie Rosario LF

Marwin Gonzalez RF

Luis Arraez 2B

Miguel Sano 3B

Ehire Adrianza 1B

Jason Castro C

 

Prediction: This is a tough one for Minnesota. They will likely struggle to get to German and Gibson has an awful history against the Yankees. I do believe this game will be close, but the Yankees may outlast Minnesota with their elite bullpen.

Score: Minnesota 4, New York 5

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    I am hoping Gibson can deliver a good start for the Twins tonight. I cannot find data to support this, but from watching him, it feels like he is reluctant to show his slider the first time through the order. I think for him to be effective tonight, he will have to have a strong blend of off-speed pitches early.

     

    His walk rate would look much better if not for his 4 BB game against Oakland and 5 BB game against Boston that have both occurred in his last 5 real starts. Not that there are any teams you can afford to give free baserunners to, but the Yankees seem to be a team that takes advantage when given those gifts. If Gibby can show command early, he should be successful tonight.

     

    Give me a 7-3 Twins win!

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