Franz

"He absolutely has the ability to put up a .300+ average with 30+ home runs." I love the optimism. I just don't see it happening and I think it sets the bar for measuring Rosario's value to this team much too high. But I appreciate Nick's next line, "...But even if he holds steady he's a quality bat for the middle of the lineup, as well as an energizing spark plug in all phases." I think that's exactly right and I would be very happy to see the Twins extend him this year. I will pay money just to see a Rosario-Buxton-Kepler trio play the outfield. Going back to expectations....let's consider...there were eight (qualifying) players in the AL who hit .300+ last year. Only three of them hit more than 30 homers. In fact, they were also the only three .300 hitters that hit more than 20! Their names were Trout, Martinez, and Betts. I love watching Rosario play but he is nowhere near that class in pitch selection, and I think that aggressiveness is such an integral part of his personality that he will never develop into a selective hitter; the kind of hitter that can hit for both power and high++ average. If he ever does, his BABIP would have to be other-worldly. Also, he doesn't play home games in Fenway :-)

If that is the case I am happy to provide my apologies and thanks for the correction in advance! I will also, however, re-state my original question: Is there anything in Buxton's track record to suggest he would add value as a modern (OBP) lead-off man? I've seen lots of analysis on this site and elsewhere that suggests the 2019 Twins 25-man roster will likely lack players with good on base skills, so it seems to me they would want to maximize this ability at the top of the order, at least.

Good catch...let me try it again with more specifics... ...according to MLB Gameday, Byron Buxton put the first pitch in play in 5 of his last 6 at-bats, including all three of his at-bats while going 0-3 in the February 27 game against Philadelphia and his first two at-bats while going 3-3 in the February 25 game against Baltimore.... A small sample size and subject to recency-bias, I'll admit, but it doesn't do anything to persuade me that he is working on pitch-selection during spring training. And if he doesn't work on grinding out at-bats when the games don't count, what is the likelihood that he will during the regular season? Habits are hard to break.

It seems like I'm going off-topic here by inserting a comment about the last of Cody's mailbag responses! Regarding Buxton having a breakout season and becoming the leadoff hitter by September, I think the first prediction is realistic (breakout season!) but not the second. Is there anything in Buxton's track record that suggests he would add value as a modern (OBP) leadoff man? FYI, in his last 6 spring training at-bats he has put the first pitch in play 5 times. That sounds like a guy who is working on being aggressive with pitches in the zone rather than seeing a lot of pitches.

I agree that this is a likely path, and the path of least risk with respect to long-term planning. I'd be surprised if the club made a serious attempt at top free agents this year. And it doesn't seem like they are close enough to contention to commit their top prospects in a trade for a front line starting pitcher (if there are any to be had). I wonder if they even will commit the prospects to get a #3-caliber starter. You haven't listed any youngsters on that roster. I also agree that the club will choose not to rush (i.e. start the service clock) on prospects if they can help it. The exception I think, may be Rooker. But I'd be very surprised to see him before June. One of your bench positions that I'm not sure about is Astudillo. I know they've played him around the diamond a bit...but does he really provide enough value as an infielder to make it worth carrying a third catcher vs. a thirteenth pitcher? Another that I'm not so sure about is Grossman. I see that you question whether he will be offered a contract. I will be interested to which way they go with him. Was he a front office favorite, or a manager favorite? It will also be interesting and informative to see how the club pursues free agent infielders. I wouldn't mind seeing a left side of Eduardo Escobar and Jose Iglesias, with Polanco shifting to 2B, and Sano moving to be the primary DH and spot 1B. I think that would tighten up our fielding considerably, and tide us over until the arrival of Lewis. (And Gordon?)

Tom's statement, "If the Twins intend to be contenders in 2019" is a key point to consider. The roster that was put together in 2018, with several short-term free agent contracts to veteran players, was an obvious attempt by the front office to bridge a gap while young major leaguers matured, minor leaguers developed, and large contracts came off the books. But I suspect that contention in 2019 was not the goal of that strategy, rather, I think the club was looking at 2018 and 2019 as "competitive" years with 2020 as a contention year. 2018 became a disappointing, non-competitive year when the free agents didn't perform as expected and the young major leaguers lost time due to injury and suspension. Now the best that can be hoped for in 2019 is a development year for the youngsters. That means lots of at bats for an every-day outfield of Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler. Polanco shifting to second base to see how his glove will play there. Sano and Austin splitting time at first base and DH. Any plan that leaves Buxton on the bench until the late innings minimizes his true value as a player, which is helping out the pitchers and his fellow outfielders (and infielders!) by providing platinum glove level fielding for nine innings. I will also take the opposite side of Tom's argument that there's nothing wrong with putting Sano on the bench if he starts the season slumping. As long as he is physically able, he belongs in the lineup, primarily as a DH. In his first year with the club, he provided plenty of value of the DH spot. I would argue that moving him around the diamond since then has taken away from his focus on hitting. Grossman and Cave have done all they can to fill in where needed. I've got no complaints about their effort or character. I just don't see either of them as a starting-caliber DH or outfielder on a contending team. And with 25-man roster spots for position players so scarce these days, I don't see how you can keep carrying players with little positional flexibility. Maybe you can carry Cave as a lefty swinging DH/1B/OF for platoon purposes.

For me, it is not what the game was worth, but what it represented. I watch and listen to games for entertainment. I am quite serious when I say that for me, watching Byron Buxton play center field is worth the price of admission. For quite some time now, I have NOT been entertained by the team that the Twins have put on the field. A number of their acquisitions and managerial moves over the past three years simply have not been conducive to putting a good product on the field. And when it becomes apparent - even obvious - that a move isn't going to work out, they persist in it! A few examples, in roughly chronological order: Sano in right field, to make room for Plouffe at 3B and Park at DHGrossman ANYWHERE in the outfieldPolanco at shortstopDozier in the leadoff spotBelisle's returnBelisle's return (with a new arm angle!?!?)Gimenez's return...as a first baseman?Buxton's non-returnI apologize for not tagging this as <rant></rant>, but I think it's implied at this point in the thread...

Wow. Almost makes me wish I had watched the broadcast. Almost. All the Twins needed today was for Gimenez to throw toss lob one at somebody's head.

September call ups need to be on the 40 man roster, so I'd say "no" for Vargas. Beyond roster technicalities, it seems to me that they will want to see as much of Tyler Austin as possible over the last month, and Vargas at-bats would cut into Austin's playing time.

I think Ted got the semantics just right with "turning the corner". Kepler appears to be making incremental adjustments to his approach without making radical changes to his sweet swing. I very much doubt that we've seen his (sustained) ceiling. Looking forward to Ted's promised deeper dive.

During Reed's last outing, the 4-run eighth inning against Detroit, his fastball was clocking in at 89-90 mph while his slider was at 84-85. Not much difference in velocity between those pitches. Perhaps if Reed is losing fastball velocity, he needs to work on more separation between those pitch speeds to keep hitters off balance? Does he have anything besides fastball/slider??

Count me in as worried. It worries me that Tom's pitch-count matrix shows that four of the seven relievers have pitched in three of the last four games. And Reed has pitched in four of the last five. Some of that is due to extended extra-inning games, but still, it seems like we should see some fresh arms getting off the plane in KC this morning. I've never totally bought into the "twice through the order then a bullpen parade" that I feel was popularized by the Royals during their world series years. It just doesn't 'feel' sustainable to me over the course of a 162 game season. Perhaps time will tell how the practice affects career trajectories of starters and/or relievers. Anyone doing stats on that? Final thought...should the Twins put their faith in a bullpen coach whose nickname is "Everyday"?

I think that is a very good point. I feel much more comfortable with Gibson in a rotation that goes: Berrios Santana Lynn Odorizzi Gibson

At the risk of hijacking this very interesting thread... I think it will be very informative to see how MLB handles the misconduct allegations against Miguel Sano. Aroldis Chapman got a 30 game suspension for an incident where he allegedly choked his girlfriend and then fired off 8 rounds in his garage. Police were called to the scene and a police report was filed. Chapman admitted that there was an altercation in his interview with MLB investigators; he disputed the choking, saying that there was an altercation and he was pushed down by his girlfriend's brother, but admitted to firing off the gun. Miguel Sano is accused of assault during an incident that was not reported for two years. I'm not aware if a police investigation has been opened. Will MLB really give him the same punishment as Chapman? My opinion is that MLB WILL come down hard on Sano in attempt to have a chilling effect on this type of behavior in the future. But...it seems like MLB set its standards awfully low with Chapman's punishment.

I agree that age has nothing to do with playing DH. There are only nine hitters in a lineup, and if you've got a guy that is one of the top two or three hitters on your roster, he MUST be in the batting lineup every day. If that same guy is a negative in the field, AND you have another guy who is better in the field and at least replacement level as a hitter, that guy should be the one with a glove. I don't see any problem with running Escobar out there every day at third base while Sano DH's.

Given the present roster construction, I like Sano as the regular DH with Escobar at 3B. My reasoning is that even given Sano's recent "struggles", he is still the only middle-of-the-order-bopper on this team. I think most people agreed that when he missed a few games in early August due to the HBP's, the resulting lineup looked very weak. It's not that I think he is LIKELY to injure himself by playing 3B for the rest of the season, but the downside is so great and the Twins' margin for making the playoffs so slim that you need to do everything possible to keep Sano healthy. For the bench I'd like to see both Granite and Garver brought up. Granite to provide pinch-running and outfield flexibility, and Garver to provide more positional flexibility along with a right-handed bat. Drop a pitcher off the roster for the next two weeks, and if the bullpen gets burned out again within the next two weeks somebody can ride the Rochester shuttle. Apologies to Kennys Vargas. I feel like he just doesn't provide the consistent power to overcome his positional inflexibility. Anyway, we'll see him in September.

I wrote down these potential 2017 lineups on a notepad at the end of the 2016 season, and dug them up this week. They are lineups that I liked, not necessarily what I thought the Twins would use (particularly because they are pretty platoon-oriented). Note that I've updated them by plugging in Castro for Centeno's spot, and I left one outfielder unnamed because, well, see notes below Re: Santana/Grossman. vs RHP Mauer 1B Kepler RF Dozier 2B Sano DH Escobar SS Buxton CF Rosario LF Polanco 3B Centeno Castro C Bench (Random right-handed hitting outfielder) Murphy Park vs LHP Polanco DH Buxton CF Dozier 2B Sano 3B Park 1B Escobar SS Rosario LF (Random right-handed hitting outfielder) RF Murphy C Bench Kepler Mauer Centeno Castro A couple of notes... 1) Yes, I do like Escobar that much. 2) Apparently I wasn't too far out of line to assume a 13-man pitching staff. But really I just couldn't think of a guy that would be helpful enough both in the field and at the plate. Examples: a. Vargas? How many DH/1B can you carry? b. Grossman? Couldn't handle the thought of him playing the field in 2017. c. Santana? Couldn't handle the thought of him playing the field OR hitting in 2017. 3) Is it just me or does anybody else think a guy like Aaron Hicks would be a pretty good fit for this team? Rests either Rosario or Kepler against left-handed pitching and can rest Buxton in CF as well. 4) Is it good, bad, or just weird that almost all the guys that I wrote down at the end of 2016 are still "the guys" for 2017?

I've never thought that Buxton's swing looked "long" in a classic sense. Bruno himself had a long swing. Buxton's reminds me of Puckett's...quick and wristy, with the bat spending little time in the hitting zone. I'd love to hear someone with swing expertise comment on the technical aspects. My decidedly amateurish take is that pitch recognition and "guessing" are Buxton's biggest hurdles...and he can work on both of these in either the high minors or the majors. Is fall league a possibility for him? Regarding knee problems...it seems to me that two MRIs in a month would be a perfect excuse to put him on the 15-day and let him work out any mechanical issues (if the team sees that as the issue), especially considering the Twins' recent history with diagnosing injuries.