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nicksaviking

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Everything posted by nicksaviking

  1. nicksaviking
    Adam Dunn could take a walk. Lots of the actually. He was always among the league leaders. As a corner outfielder, Walker is going to have to get on base or he'll stall out really quickly.
  2. nicksaviking
    I'm usually a "push" guy as I don't like babying these guys but I think Anti-Walker needs to open in Ft. Myers. Usually my beef with the slow promotion is that I don't want these guys getting coddled and end up soft. Perhaps it's just me, but guys who refuse to take pitches even when it would seem their livelihood depends on it, seem somewhat stubborn and could use remedial correction, not a reward which would only encourage the lack of discipline.
  3. nicksaviking
    Right, innings, not appearances. I don't see him as more than the longman/mop-up-guy, but this club always seems to want to indentify one of those early.
  4. nicksaviking
    That BB decrease from AAA to the MLB is very intersting. It could very well show that on the job training at the MLB level is the best way to learn. It could also show that MLB hitters are more agressive and AAA hitters are concsiously trying to improve their OBP, something that it seems is often a prerequisit for many MLB clubs. It could also show that AAA pitchers are more agressive knowing how much teams, scouts and people who perform prospect rankings value strikeouts.
  5. nicksaviking
    Rebuttals to Stauffer in the rotation should first consider this. While I'd guess the percentage is a bit exagerated, I can't see a scenario where Stauffer gets the #5 gig except for a rash of injuries. Bottom line is, he's an asset as a bullpen arm and he looks like another futile NL reclamation project as a starter. To me he looks like Anthony Swarzak's replacement and an upgrade at that. I could see him among the league leaders in appearances, particularly if the Twins can resist the urge of keeping a 13-man pitching staff due to all the veteran starters they have acquired.
  6. nicksaviking
    BB in college are probably something to be more skeptical about. I'd guess once the pitcher gets to full season ball however, the BB rate is probably a decent baseline for future projection. Seems to me the numbers start to become a little more guessable by that time, assuming we're not dealing with a small sample size issue.
  7. nicksaviking
    Not to mention that after Hoey's shoulder surgery he had huge control issues. Aside from his first start, that doesn't appear to be a major concern for Burdi.
  8. nicksaviking
    Why not? If he was, the team could just trade him for a top SS.
  9. nicksaviking
    Low velocity wouldn't bother me if they still generated strikeouts.
  10. nicksaviking
    Sorry if you folks have heard this one from me before, but I hate the rotation projections. Meyer does not project to be a #3 starter; #3 starters don't throw 98 with ++ strikeout potential. Meyer projects to be a #1-2 starter or back of the bullpen arm. I'm sorry if their rating criteria doesn't match the real life model of a MLB rotation, but that doesn't change the fact that their evaluations are misleading. Fireballing relievers have a repertoire and velocity more in common with front of the rotation arms than they do with the traditional command concious mid-rotation arms.
  11. nicksaviking
    Nope. I merely brought it up because it seems that guys with a strong pedigree get many more chances to prove they can be useful. I'm not sure a Luke Hochaver, Jason Isringhousen, Zach Britton or Glen Perkins gets as much leeway if they previously weren't a high draft pick or highly rated prospect. Their stuff was well respected at one point so these guys likely get more chances as there likely is hope that the positives scouts saw at one point can still be salvaged. Sometimes it can.
  12. nicksaviking
    This is where I have issues with keeping him down. You're not going to make him more durable by throwing extra pitches in Rochester. If he may not be durable, get as much as you can out of him before his clock strikes midnight.
  13. nicksaviking
    As far as his pedigree is concerned, he was the 9th overall pick in 2005 and was BA's 20th ranked player in 2007, but he's not really living up to expectations as a starter. He hasn't been good with men on base, but Perkins, Nathan and Guardado were much worse with men on base before they were converted to the pen as well (full disclosure, Aguilera was better with men on base as a starter). So unless there is an actual issue with pitching from the stretch, and there may be, the issues with runners on base is most likely related to repetoir or some mental issue. We've seen many times that many problems can be fixed by turning a 93-95 MPH fastball into a 96-98 MPH fastball. Maybe he can't increase velocity, but I don't think there's anything to lose by trying to find out.
  14. nicksaviking
    And sadly that was the correct assessment. Time to start refreshing our Bill Smith apologies.
  15. nicksaviking
    I don't see an attack. Another poster previously said something I agreed with but instead of looking through all the posts again I instead anomalously paid him or her a compliment. I don't like WHIP, and because of the discourse I now am questioning my belief in OBP, so there has been some progress here I guess. I never felt any hostility from my counter part, he seemed civil from my perspective. I apologize if I somehow didn't sound the same.
  16. nicksaviking
    OPS isn't nearly as useless, as it includes slugging percentage which weights the type of hits. A useful WHIP should be the inverse of that. Maybe OBP should take a back seat to more comprehensive stats, but I just don't see much value in a stat that says a guy who gives up 25 HR and 1 BB is the same as a guy who gives up 25 BB and one HR. As noted earlier by a wise poster, BB should be much less of a concern for a strikeout pitcher as they aren't nearly as susceptible to runners moving over on routine grounders and sac flies. If Meyer is going to strike out batters at twice the percentage of, say Gibson, the tolerance for him letting guys get to first should be much, much higher.
  17. nicksaviking
    Right, WHIP is a terrible measurement. Anything that gives a silly little walk the same weight as a HR probably shouldn't be taken too seriously.
  18. nicksaviking
    I think some are underestimating how difficult and perhaps even rare it is for a guy going on 20 to develop a third pitch almost from scratch and that pitch actually becoming useful.
  19. nicksaviking
    Yes. I want Pelfrey nowhere near the rotation, but he certainly has the pedigree and the velociy (and lack of secondary pitches) that has turned many highly rated or drafted busts into solid if not exceptional relievers. The Twins should already be well acquainted with this concept, they've basically gotten their closers for the past 2 1/2 decades using this idea.
  20. nicksaviking
    It won't matter how he hits with men on base, he's never going to get called up if he doesn't start taking walks. A lot more walks. He'll never get a chance to prove critics like myself wrong except perhaps for some token September call up when he's 26 when fans look at his minor league HR numbers and call to see him just for the hell of it. Bernardo Brito part II.
  21. nicksaviking
    I wasn't comparing which arms they threw with, just comparing what appeared to be their lack of upside and ability to pitch well in the minors even when all evidence points to them not having the stuff to be effective at the MLB level. If his velocity is really as you say and he can start missing a good deal of bats, I'd be thrilled to change my opinion on him.
  22. nicksaviking
    Hardly any HS arms make it out of the Midwest League for the Twins without putting in a full year. Things have changed though, let's hope Gonsalves gives the decision makers a lot to think about. I really do hope Gonsalves velocity is "developing." The numbers look great, but I thought he was throwing harder in HS. If anyone has info on the history of his velocity I'd love to hear it. I guess otherwise we'll have to assume it was a case of pitcher friendly radar guns. Speaking of...I'm going to have a hard time considering Rogers an actual prospect. I guess any player that can make it to the majors should be considered for these lists, but I don't recall Cole DeVries or Matt Fox ever making these things. I guess he's got the whole "crafty lefty" bit going for him, I just don't buy into that like I used to a decade ago. Lots of people probably will argue with the Walker ranking. Not me, it looks about right to me. I have hopes he can figure out how to take a walk, but at this time, his odds of making the MLB seem to be much less than the three pitchers on this list and due to his inability to get on base, I'd give the German the edge too.
  23. nicksaviking
    If he put up those numbers, I'm not sure Suzuki would even need to get hurt for him to get a call up seeing as how much the team loves his defense. I don't assume he would hit anything near that though, he has never profiled to be much of a hitter. I'm not a big Duffey believer either, he looks an awful lot like the other high-contact AAAA arms that have come through the system in the last half decade. Hopefully there becomes a big enough log jam of talent for the rotation that he can go back to the pen where he can put more juice on his fastball.
  24. nicksaviking
    I want to play too! I see it as so: Det 85 - 78 Chi 84 - 79 Twins 79 - 85 KC 79 - 85 Cle 72 - 90 The math on Chicago and Detroit is not typo, the AL Central gets another game 163. Twins finish ahead of KC due to head-to-head matchup. Cleveland is going to stink. Well the whole division is going to stink, just Cleveland stinks more than most.
  25. nicksaviking
    Wait until the All-Star break at the earliest. There's no rush and we need a larger sample. I'm not big on players much older than their early 30's anyway. Additionally, what if the team gets lucky and some combinaiton Santana/Escobar/Polanco/Rosario end up showing they are good if not better options? Dozier and his 4 years of arbitration will be a lot more enticing for other teams than Dozier and a 6 year firm contract no matter how he performs.
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