Lee-The-Twins-Fan

Mike Sixel: I'm not sure who is implying the Twins are "one FA SP from being in the playoffs." I think most posters would agree that we need (or would like to have) one or two new SP in 2017 – whether by trade or free agency or promotion – but the team does have other needs. It needs one or two more (probably FA) relief pitchers, perhaps a 4th outfielder and shortstop (possibly homegrown). Also, since Ryan was fired, the Twins also replaced its starting catcher and made apparent decisions regarding Trevor May (to try him out as a starter) and Miguel Sano (giving him 3B). Changing catcher, and the decisions around May and Sano, might have been different with Ryan as GM, vs Falvey and Levine. Rebuilding is a process. There are a myriad of decisions – by the FO, the manager, hitting, pitching and other coaches - and by the players themselves on a field – which can make or break each game and a full season. If all the Major League teams had 2016 to play over, would the Cubs still be the World Champions? Maybe or maybe not. It's a matter of changing philosophies, changing the culture of a team which can have a positive (or negative) effect on players and winning. Those are some of the reasons, I believe, Ryan was fired.

So Dave: Who would you keep among the present Twins? Who would you release or trade? Who would you acquire – and don't refer to the Dodgers and the Dozier deal. It fell through. What could the Twins realistically do?

Actually, I think this team is built for 2018 and beyond. By then, they'll have Nick Gordon at SS, and Tyler Jay, Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero in the rotation. They just need some good relief pitchers (we have a few, and I expect Chargois and Stewart to be among them. Yes, I am optimistic for 2018 – and even for 2017. I think people will like Justin Haley, and yes, he'll be in the rotation this year. People complain that the FO hasn't done enough to improve the team. But let's face it - there were few good starters to sign, the market for Dozier was less than expected, and there's still time to sign a reliever or two. I fully expect Dozier to be on this team in 2018, when they win the division!

I fully expect Castro, Sano (playing FT at 3B) and Rosario (playing FT in the outfield, in place of Sano) will help fill those RBIs. It's not rocket science. When two players leave, two more come in. And I believe the guys coming in will do better then those they replaced. What can I say - I'm an eternal optimist.

Ditto. He'll be back.

Good story, Seth.

Bold prediction: Justin Haley will emerge from spring training as the Twins #5 starter. I think he will impress everyone in ST. I actually look forward to Haley pitching this spring.

Yeah - there are 40 guys on the Rays' (and Twins') 25-man rosters. They haven't started spring training yet.

OK. Thanks

Leviathon: Who has De Leon ranked as a top 10 pitching prospect? The 2016 MLB ranking has him at 33rd. It was mentioned in an earlier post that ESPN has him ranked in the 70s. I'm not trying to disagree with you here. I just want to know who ranks him that high?

Whoops – forgot Tyler Jay. He'll be there too. I'm just a bit higher on Romero and Gonsalves. Maybe it'll be Romero, Gonsalves, Jay, Berrios and Stewart, with Gibson in the bullpen. We'll see in a few years.

I know, I know, I'm an eternal optimist.. I'm looking at Romero, Golsalves, Berrios, Stewart and Gibson as the rotation of the future, maybe 2019 – and I believe all can contribute. Just an optimist talking.

Well... There are Mauer and Dozier...Or maybe you don't consider them "useful".

Agreed. Dozier is worth more to the Twins in 2017 then a prospect who may or may not pan out.

I assume this is supposed to be funny... And it is. If it's not supposed to be funny, then Buxton graduated from this list in 2016. But yeah, I miss him being #1 or #2...

I respectfully disagree. I think Dozier is worth more to the Twins than a POTENTIAL #2 or #3 starter. We might not know for 3 or 4 years if this was the right move. The way De Leon pitched in the majors last year, I question whether he'll get to a #2 status anytime soon. He might be a #5 in 2017, a #4 in 2018, and not get to a #2 until 2020. You don't know. The Twins needed more than just one decent prospect for Dozier – even if the market is soft.

I'm a little disappointed, but more relieved than anything that this ordeal is over. Now the Twins can go out and sign some pitchers and one FA outfielder and head to the season!!

Put this idea in the CRAZY file... Between Dozier and Polanco – which is the better fielder – who has the better range, footwork, instincts, arm? I'd like to see Dozier play SS a few times in ST, and Polanco play both SS and 2B. Dozier played 83 games at SS early in his career, and I bet he's grown some since then. I'd like to see him try SS, with Polanco at 2B, just to see if it would work. I think Dozier is a better fielder than Polanco. Here's another idea – flip the entire infield. Mauer's getting to be a better 1B, and clearly has the arm. Put Mauer at 3B, Dozier at SS, Polanco at 2B and Sano – the weakest fielder – at 1B. Otherwise, if neither Polanco or Dozier cannot cut it at SS, I'd try Vielma until Gordon is ready. Escobar is OK, but not full-time. He's better in the super-utility role. I'm hesitant about putting Polanco at 3B – i'd be concerned about his arm. Better to put Sano – or Dozier – there, if you want better fielding. Here are some combos: 1B 2B SS 3B Mauer Dozier Polanco Sano Sano Polanco Vielma Dozier Mauer Polanco Dozier Sano Sano Polanco Dozier Mauer I know. Crazy is as crazy does.

First bolded part first: De Leon is a very strong prospect, but with risk – he was injured last year, and didn't have a hugely successful MLB debut. But he is a very strong prospect. Brock Stewart is not on MLB's 2016 top 100 prospects; he's 17th on the Dodgers' prospect list. I don't consider him a "very strong prospect" Strong, yes, not very strong. He also moved through the Dodgers' system very fast, and also did not have a hugely successful MLB debut. But he is a strong – not very strong – prospect. The second bolded part. No one is saying (I don't think) that two years of Dozier is worth 6 years of a #2 type starting pitcher. The proposal is De Leon, Stewart and maybe one or two lottery-type prospects (low prospects, in rookie or A-ball, not on the Dodgers' top 50 list). De Leon and/or Stewart MAY develop into #2 starters. They may not develop beyond #5 starters. They are PROSPECTS, not #2 starters, at least not yet. They've both been at the MLB level in 2016, so I assume they have five years of control left each. If the Dodgers and Twins make this deal, it's a risk – for both teams. De Leon and/or Stewart may develop nicely. They may not. Dozier could be a top-three 2B for the next two years and hit 40 homers a year, keeping his batting average up and delivering great fielding, or he could revert to a top-15 2B, hitting 20 homers in the next two years. We're talking about mitigating risks for both teams. Chances are, if the trade is not made, and De Leon and Stewart stay with the Dodgers, they could both be in AAA in 2017, or up and down, or one in the rotation for most of the year. If with the Twins, it would be more likely one or both of them would be in the rotation, given the state of the Twins' rotation. That's why Dozier, who barring injury will play 2B for some MLB team, is worth De Leon, Stewart (or comparable pieces) and two low-level prospects.

I would say one or two lower level prospects – from my understanding each team might submit a list and see if any candidates match. I'm suggesting one or two drafted in the later rounds, in rookie or A ball, that are not on the Dodger's top 50-prospects list. If you want names, I'd have to do some research. The reason I would ask for this is to mitigate the possibility that both De Leon and Stewart falter at the major league level. When you're trading your best player (and I believe Dozier was the Twins' best player in 2016) it's all about mitigating risk. You might not think there's much risk with De Leon and Stewart. But think about this: De Leon was injured for part of the year last year. Stewart rose up very fast through the Dodgers' system and hasn't always been a starter. (In 2014, he was in rookie ball, and started only 1 of 17 games). There is a level of risk with each of them, far more than with Dozier. I mentioned earlier that I'd be willing to trade Dozier for an established MLB-level #2 or #3 starting pitcher. That's because an established pitcher carries a little less risk than a prospect. Yes, they might not be with the team as long, but their value per year will likely be higher.

You are right, They are the Dodgers. My mistake!

I mentioned two by name, but obviously there are more!! And if we are not to "plan around" prospects in the future, then why trade Dozier at all? Wouldn't the Dodgers be just giving us more of those unplannable prospects?

I'm not suggesting two guys on level with DeLeon. DeLeon is ranked (2016 MLB rankings – 2017 isn't out yet) as the 33rd best MLB prospect; he's second on the Angels' list. For comparison purposes, the Twins' Tyler Jay is ranked 37th overall on the MLB list. Yadier Alvarez, whom Dave W says is included in the negotiations, is ranked 91st overall, 5th on the Angels' list. Brock Stewart is not on the overall MLB prospect ranking, and is 14th on the Angels list – definitely not on the same level as either De Leon or Alvarez. I'm not suggesting two no. 2 starters – I'm suggesting two starting pitchers able to come into the Twins' rotation in 2017, plus one or two low A or A level prospects. De Leon and Stewart fit the first part of that bill - but they're hardly equal. I want two starters who have gone through their paces at the AA and AAA levels, pitched at least 120 innings last year (I believe De Leon fell short of that, though) – in essence two guys i reasonably believe can start games and have success at the MLB level in 2017. That and one or two 'lottery ticket' types. If it's De Leon and Stewart, it's a prospect at 33rd, and one that doesn't make the top 100. I'm not asking for the moon here. But Dozier's proven his value at the MLB level. Stewart and De Leon (and one or two others) haven't. It's way more likely that one or both of De Leon and Stewart falter at the MLB level than it is that Dozier does. That's why it will take multiple prospects to mitigate their risk. As I've said before, that's what Dozier is worth. If the Dodgers and other teams don't want to meet that price, then I'd keep Dozier. He has value for the Twins in 2017.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree... No harm in that. I tend to believe you are underselling Dozier's value. I'm not going to go into his history and stats, because it has been done. But he is a very valuable position player. He hit 42 homers last year – and played good defense, stayed on the field, etc. That's worth more than two unproven starting pitcher prospects! He has proven his value – they haven't (De Leon and Stewart, etc.). I'm not asking for the moon, here. Just two near-MLB-ready starters (Like De Leon and Stewart) and one or two A-level prospects. Considering Dozier's proven value – that's not a lot. Now if you're talking about an established 2-3 rotation pitcher for Dozier 1-on-1, i might go for that. But there's a reason they are called PROSPECTS. And I don't want to trade Dozier for De Leon and A-level prospects. He's worth more than that. So we'll have to agree to disagree.

You honestly believe the Twins will repeat a 103-loss season if we don't trade Dozier? I think it's more likely if we DO trade Dozier. Yes, we need pitching. Yes, the Dodgers have pitching and need a 2B like Dozier. But unless we get decent value for him, we shouldn't just trade him JUST to get a pitcher. We need more than that, and he's WORTH more than that! If the trade market is soft, then we wait to trade him. No irony was intended in my post. I'm merely pointing out that the Twins have got some very good arms coming up, but most of them are at least a year away yet. That's why we need 2 MLB-ready arms now. If the Dodgers won't do that trade, then we should either look elsewhere, or not trade BD. it's that simple. His leadership, his bat and his glove all have value to the Twins in 2017. The Twins should not trade him for half his value, just to get any pitching return, IMHO.