twinstalker

He'll get a start for Ft. Myers then maybe one for NB. Then the AFL.

Um, yeah, Kepler's a no-brainer. Does the same hold true for Sano? They were signed the same year, but not really, as Kepler signed at the regular time and Sano signed late, if you remember. Hmmm, I ask the question of a thread that's no longer being read or that I'd likely not return to see the answer.

I don't see that as an issue here. While the Twins do stupid things in the name of "image," they aren't going to mess this up to make a few bucks.

I keep reading that Hicks may not hit. I don't think that's going to be an issue. He's been rushed, but I'd think he'd hit better next year than Clete Thomas is hitting this year. Eventually he'll be .270/.350/.430, good for a CF but not anything too special for a corner guy.

The question is simply: is Sano good enough that you want to control him through 2020 instead of just 2019? It's not like he won't learn something in AAA. It will be the first time he consistently sees breaking balls at any count. It will be interesting to see how long it takes him to crush AAA. He only needs to not be on the 25-man for 11 major league days. It's too bad he's not eligible for the Arizona Fall League (foreign players from countries with winter leagues are not eligible).

There's essentially nothing different between Hicks and Thomas this year. Neither should be in the big leagues. I'm amazed that it seems to be unrecognized that Thomas sucks incredibly.

I hope nobody tells Gonsalves that the Twins passed on him three times.

Yeah, I'm disappointed Meyer hasn't had a strikeout in two months, too, but geez, at least understand why. There should be a test prior to logging on. And the first question is if you know how to spell the simple words, like Meyer. I'm not sure there is even a last name "Myer." Perhaps. Sorry, surly. And now I need one.

How dare you suggest a platoon! Part of what makes Rosario a top prospect is his position, but his bat still projects better than what the Twins are throwing out there (Thomas?) after ditching Willingham. Obviously, Buxton's timetable plays into the thought of Rosario playing any OF, but it wouldn't shock me to see him get ABs there.

Yes, sorry, Kepler is the clear leader for future 1B. Also, Plouffe does have some value right now. NY would love him. Dozier I'm suggesting trading if he gets off to a good half-season next year, but it's stupid to suggest Ryan would ever consider trading a guy who's doing well. He might get criticized!

I'm bringing up this subject because of something that's been bothering me. The Twins best infielder this year is Brian Dozier. He's entering his prime years, and we can expect that he'll be better the next couple of years. He's also saving a spot for the irresistible force that is Eddie Rosario, and Dozier's arm and range are such that it is very unclear whether a utility role suits him. No room at the inn? Well, clearly, Dozier will start 2014 in the lineup as Rosario continues to press forward. Here's a look at the other names and positions and my opinions on what is optimal (and then what Ryan will do). Trevor Plouffe: I think there are two clear options here, neither of which will be explored by Ryan/Gardy. First, Miguel Sano will soon be up, and he will play everyday. Plouffe has shown himself to be a pretty poor 3B, and he's flashed power, but when all is said and done, you really only want him to bat against LHP and play an unimportant defensive position (DH, 1B, RF). Unfortunately, Gardenhire refuses to ever do a straight platoon, and in Plouffe's case, he'll probably refuse to do it even though DH, 1B, and RF will be the perfect spots to get him in the lineup vs lhp once the Sano era starts. Meanwhile he mans 3B full-time. The other good option with Plouffe is to trade him for some sort of prospect (better than Liriano return but unfortunately not a B prospect). Sano is coming and Plouffe is going to arbitration as a super two. If you're not going to pay him arbitration rates as a platoon corner guy, then perhaps the solution is to move him now and sign a cheap placeholder until Sano gets here. I doubt either option is chosen, and Plouffe, like most Twins, will die on the vine until he's released or traded for basically zero. Most likely he'll move to 1B where his bat vs rhp will prove insufficient, thus prompting his demise into nothingness prior to becoming a useful piece with another organization. Shortstop: No doubt the Twins will enter 2014 with Pedro Florimon as their one and only option. What else can they do? James Beresford and Danny Santana might provide some competition in camp, but Florimon's defense has impressed enough to make him the sure-thing there. My opinion is that on a good team, Florimon's bat can be hidden, on the Twins he's just another hole in the lineup. The Twins, like the good teams they hope to become, need someone who can both hit and pick it. No suggestions, unfortunately, except please find a Profar or Machado or Lindor. Well, let me try out this one: move current Class A infielder Jorge Polanco to SS full-time in the minors and determine whether or not his glove is majors-worthy. His bat looks like it will play. First base: Well, the main question here is if Chris Parmelee's bat is quick enough to hit enough to play first base. And then because of Gardenhire, can he hit lhp? (It's gotten so frustrating, I just don't understand how he's allowed to continue to make horrible decisions). Parmelee will not be playing the outfield because Arcia will be in right, Hicks in center, and Buxton in left (Gardenhire again). I would suggest that Parmelee will hit enough to form half a good platoon with some combination of Plouffe and Chris Colabello. So targeting midseason 2014 with the Twins not in contention, here's the plan to optimize: [TABLE=width: 500] Player Plan Mid 2014 pos Eventually B. Dozier Trade in 2014 [/TD] E. Rosario Recall mid 2014 2B Regular P. Florimon Pray SS Polanco? T. Plouffe (A) Trade now NYY prospect? Get a stop-gap for 2014 T. Plouffe ( Platoon mid 2014 1B/DH/RF/3B keep while low $$$ M. Sano Recall mid 2014 3B all-star J. Beresford Recall mid 2014 Utility [TD]C. Parmelee Platoon Aug 2013 1B Vargas/Harrison C. Colabello Platoon Aug 2013 1B/DH Vargas/Harrison [/TABLE] One way or another, you have to optimize your assets, and unfortunately we can only dream about that, because Terry Ryan has always waited to deal someone until he's hit some sort of valley. It's like he's afraid of the perception of Twins fans if he deals someone who's doing well. Take Perkins as a prime example, though other reasons can be argued. Take Willingham last year. Plouffe has value right now. Trade him or use him correctly next year. Dozier will have value next year, probably. Trade him while he's doing well (my projection, anyhow). He's not the future and is unlikely to be a good utility guy. I've made this a larger post than it seemingly is an issue, but I can already see Plouffe and Dozier as completely wasted or mis-used assets.

Romero doesn't have to be a big-league player. He can stop-gap the rest of the year, and the Twins can find someone on a one-year contract next year. Unless you're going to do a straight platoon with Plouffe somewhere (not happening under brilliant Gardy), he's more of a detriment than anything. Perhaps next year is his year, but really nothing in his development says he'll ever hit well enough up here. Yeah, he teased us in AAA, but AAA pitchers are there mostly because they can't hack the majors. Very few Gibsons for very long. Good pitchers don't spend much, if any, time in AAA.

Get what you can now. This season is lost. To re-sign him, you will have to commit to multiple years, and NOTHING Pelfrey has ever done makes him worth multiple years. Sorry, folks, we just let a guy mend on our dime, but that was pretty obvious when we gave him a straight one-year deal. Get what you can NOW.

Dude, Pelfrey is a free agent.

I think Andrew Albers will be pitching for the Twins yet this season. I assume he's either on the 40 or needs to be placed there next year, so that's not an impediment (there are many candidates for DFA).

I'm not sure what his weaknesses are and where he is in his development, but I think that a consideration when a guy needs work yet is what it does to the affiliate. Yeah, you could promote him, but he needs to work on a few things, and he's a big part of the team in Cedar Rapids. They have fans, too. Now, of course, that consideration won't come into play when there's room for promotion, and there's nothing left to accomplish at the current level. But if the Twins are somewhat on the fence, I think it plays a part. I'm sure they've spoken with ABW about what he needs to do, so maybe Seth needs to make a call to the man himself.

Is it really that difficult to spell Parmelee's name right? Typos are one thing...

Thanks. There is no doubt the Rosario stands with the best of them bat-wise. Unfortunately, defense is a difference-maker, and we don't know where Rosario stands there, yet. The other guys have all shown they'll handle 2B in the majors (well, Gyorko might be a 3B, but his bat is that good). If Rosario can't play 2B, his value to the Twins declines immensely.

How rare is Perkins? It's really a subject that could be debated quite a bit, with ample evidence for the positions of very rare and not so rare. The obvious problem teams have is that the guy they give the role to doesn't have much room for error, so finding someone with both the success and matching peripherals that predict future success lends to a real comfort level that at important times (like the playoffs) the end of your bullpen won't implode. That's worth a lot, and it's why Perkins' value is higher now than it would be in the offseason when team think they might be able to develop their own successful closer (like Rondon in Detroit).

No, but the thought has crossed my mind that Plouffe works out with Braun in the offseasons.

Well, yeah, but realistically the only way the Twins get Bradley is to give them Mauer and pay for his salary*...and I'm not exaggerating. He's a franchise pitcher. *I'm not saying this is necessarily a bad idea.

I agree and don't think the Twins are likely to find a much better bridge and prospect than Dozier/Rosario. I feel like 2B is determined. Though I don't recommend just any bum, they can still use some corner sticks. Arcia, Hicks, Sano will be a part of this team going forward. They need five or six when you include DH in the picture.

Along those lines, is there a shortstop (beside Machado or Bogaerts) who's waiting in line for some team? Frankly, the Twins don't have any reasonable options there, and if they could acquire someone like Erick Aybar was his first couple of years, that (with a decent but not top prospect) might be the sort of thing that makes sense.

There's quite a difference between AAAA players who have figured out AAA but not MLB and 21 year olds who have advanced so far. His numbers are very good at AAA for a 21 yr old. That his numbers don't quite match the year-older Arcia's shouldn't be a slight at all. To wit, having another Arcia-quality bat would be a very big deal to the team. Also, I should add that Castellanos has hit 9 of his 12 HRs away from Toledo, a sign that the Mud Hens' park might mute his power. Just my two cents.

Glen Perkins is obviously the Twins biggest trade chip, if they choose to make him available. Normally, a much sought-after reliever on a bad team is a no-brainer trade candidate, but Perkins is different. Consider: We have to hope 2014 shows substantial improvement for the Twins as both the pitching stabilizes and the prospects graduate. Then we pretty much have to hope this team can contend starting in 2015. If that hope isn't there, then what in the hell are we even doing here? I personally expected 2013 to be just like it is, but the time for crap is over after this season. Perkins, unlike most outstanding relievers, has a very team-friendly contract that extends out through 2016. To wit: 14:$3.75M, 15:$3.75M, 16:$4.5M club option with incentives that likely add a mil or two each year. Much better than $8-12M you normally pay for his level of performance. When the team is ready to contend in 2015, the absence of a lock-down stopper could create problems. So there is a lot to weigh here. What is the probability we'll need a closer like Perkins in 2014, 2015, and/or 2016, and what is the probability that the Twins could find a suitable replacement if they let him go? By 2015 Michael Tonkin or another unknown could well be a fine stopper. Then, of course, there is the question of what sort of return Perkins can bring. It's my personal opinion that if we're not talking high-end prospects, the discussion ends right here. As much as I like, say, Jorge Polanco and Adam Brett Walker, if another team were to offer them up to the Twins for Perkins, the probability of one of them being a positive impact eventually is too small and their upside not high enough to give up a commodity like Perkins. So I'm going to bring up six scenarios and attach names to them. Not necessarily names that are available but names that represent their positions and their prospect status. Please avoid the "the Giants/Rangers/Whatevers will never give him up" statements, because that's not really the point. The point is the value from the Twins point of view. If the team in question would never consider such a deal due to not being in contention or just the value from its point of view, that's fine, the names are just examples. Scenario 1: Trade Perkins for a top shortstop prospect at the A level. I'm talking almost sure things here, names like Addison Russell, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa. Do the Twins do it? These guys won't contribute until 2015 or 2016, but there is very little doubt about them, and your shortstop is set for perhaps a decade. The obvious problem is that the names I mention are basically the only names in this class, and their teams aren't going to make that deal. But do you make that deal if offered? I think you obviously have to. More realistic shortstop names are in Scenario 6, guys that I'd want but not alone for Perkins. Scenario 2: Trade Perkins for a top prospect hitter who's nearly ready but is a corner guy, an area where we expect Hicks, Arcia, Sano, Plouffe, and perhaps the best of the rest to occupy. One name I've heard mentioned in this regard is Detroit 3B/OF Nick Castellanos, a current AAA rh hitter with a very good hit tool and very moderate power (but no less so than any current MLB Twins). There is a very good chance that Castellanos will be a quality bat at even the corner positions. Another is Pirate prospect Gregory Polanco, whose prospect to us is dimmed just slightly by the fact that some of his value is as a good CF, which he won't play here. Both these players are in the current BA top 15, but it's important to note there is a gap between their prospects and the Top 10 guys like Bogaerts, Yelich, and Sano. Do you trade Perkins for one of these guys? As difficult as it is, I think you do. These might not be as unrealistic as the Scenario 1 guys. Detroit is filling needs, and Pittsburgh already has two star CFers playing everyday. Castellanos is ready in 2014, Polanco not until 2015 probably. My opinion is yes, trade Perkins, because a high-quality hitter in the hand is worth one hundred non-Sano non-Buxtons. Scenario 3: Would you trade Perkins for a top and close pitching prospect? The type of names I'm referring to here are the Alex Meyer types. There are certain pitchers (Dylan Bundy, Archie Bradley, Taijuan Walker e.g.) that carry franchise-type labels. We won't consider them. Would you, though, trade Glen Perkins straight up for a pitcher of the quality of Jameson Taillon, Yordano Ventura, or Noah Syndergaard? These three are all very close to MLB and all have extremely high upside, but none are sure things. Note that each is considered a better prospect than Meyer. I do this trade for any of the three. The first two hit 100 mph, and the third is uber-polished. I doubt any guy like this would be made available. Scenario 4: Would you trade Perkins for a high end prospect pitcher in A ball? This is what Alex Meyer was last year at this time. Names are Robert Stephenson, Taylor Guerreri, and Max Fried. Scout gush over these guys for different reasons and predict MLB success for all. We're looking at 2016 for this type of guy. Again, I think I would pull the trigger. This type of return for Perkins should not be unrealistic. Fans of the other team will scream, but so many things happen to derail even the best Class A arms. Scenario 5: The Ramos scenario, except that Perkins is good. The Twins need a catcher to catch 60-80 games in 2015 and take over for Mauer soon thereafter. Gary Sanchez (NYY) and Austin Hedges are the guys who qualify here as candidates from strictly our point of view. Do you trade Perkins for a catcher as good as these guys? I think this is a tough one, and we should consider Josmil Pinto is already in the system putting up great stats. Are they better than Pinto? Scenario 6: Should we look at lesser prospects in tandem for Perkins? The teams involved here, if interested in Perkins, would certainly not want to give up more than just one name, but I don't know that it would make sense for the Twins to get just one name. Alen Hanson (Pit) and Dorsyss Paulino (Cle) are two name that are relatively highly rated (Top 100) but not guaranteed to stick at SS. Getting a shortstop is important, but getting a shortstop's bat that has to move to another position is dangerous. Adding another name would reduce the risk. Again, what we'd likely need is something another team won't likely give, but you never know when the Bill Smith in a GM might come out, like it did with Sabean in 2003. Would you make a deal for two nice prospects (one top 150, one top 250) for Perkins? Combinations that come to mind are Pittsburgh's Hanson and Josh Bell (yeah, I know, too much), Baltimore's Eduardo Rodriguez and Nick Delmonico, Arizona's Chris Owings and Andrew Chafin (or David Holmberg), Texas' Luis Sardina and Jorge Alfaro and Cleveland's Dorssys Paulino and Mitch Brown (Paulino being good enough for us to accept lesser-rated Brown as the addition). I would do any deal like this that brings back a shortstop or top prospect starter as one of the pieces. To put this in perspective, Baltimore laughed when the Cubs wanted either Jonathan Schoop or Eduardo Rodriguez in a deal for Matt Garza. Of course, Garza is a free agent at the end of the year, and Perkins is controlled through 2016, so perhaps we're not too far off. Again, this is supposed to be from the Twins' point of view. What would it take for a deal to make sense for the Twins, given the value Perkins brings with his arm and his contract? The simple answer could be that we'll never get this kind of return in any of the scenarios, and that therefore why trade him? For instance, I mentioned Mitch Brown, the kid from Rochester, MN who was deemed 1st-rd supplemental quality in the 2012 draft. Perkins would easily bring him and probably another like him, but that package for the Twins (two Browns) would be extremely risky and, well, dumb. You would cross your fingers lottery-like and hope one would become Perkins. So perhaps Perkins is un-tradeable. If true, so be it.