Tom Froemming

Agreed, that's still a really great deal for Baltimore. It's a shame arbitration panels haven't evolved in step with how statistical analysis has changed over the years.

Yes, you are correct in this case. Based on quotes from Brian Cashman in this New York Post article the Yankees did attempt to reach a compromise prior to numbers being formally exchanged, but once it was clear that wasn't going to happen they cut off talks.

In related news, O's reliever Brad Brach just won his arbitration hearing. He will get $3.05M, the team had filed $2.525M. This was only the second time Baltimore has lost in 13 arbitration hearings. Brach has a 2.61 ERA over the past three seasons, but just three career saves to his credit. One thing that may have boosted his case is he has 22 wins over the past three years, including 10 a year ago. He was also an All Star. It may seem silly, but those things can factor into these arbitration decisions.

Perhaps the biggest area of uncertainty when it comes to a baseball team's future financial obligations is arbitration salaries. In some cases, teams will "buy out" a player's arbitration years by signing him to an extension in order to ensure cost certainty. The Twins saved themselves a good chunk of change by doing exactly that with Brian Dozier prior to the 2015 season, signing him to a four-year, $20M extension. Sometimes this strategy doesn't work out so well (see Singleton, Jon).We already know teams will delay calling up prospects in an effort to gain an extra year of team of control/delay a player's arbitration eligibility, but should they also make an effort to keep players affordable in their arbitration seasons? Are they already doing this? Counting stats still weigh heavily in arbitration cases, and one of the biggest gaps in arbitration salaries is between relievers with saves and those without. A lot of Twins fans are holding out hope that J.T. Chargois can elevate himself to be the team's closer at some point in 2017. But if that were to happen, and Chargois spends something like two and a half seasons as a closer, he's going to be very expensive by the time he becomes arbitration eligible. Brandon Kintzler is still in arbitration as well, so in terms of future salary considerations, Glen Perkins taking back over as closer would be the ideal scenario. The Twins have a $6.5M option on Perkins for 2018 whether he gets four saves or 40. Even going forward from next year and beyond, this issue of whether or not to put a pre-arb or arb-elligible pitcher in the closer role will be interesting to follow. Stop me if you've heard this before, but the Twins have a number of relievers in the minors who should be ready to make an impact soon. Will the team thrust one of them into the ninth inning, or opt to sign affordable vetetans to fill that role instead? Maybe by then it's not going to matter. The case of Betances v. Yankees On Friday, there's a baseball player in Florida who is challenging the system. It's not at a spring training complex, but rather at an arbitration hearing. Yankee reliever Dellin Betances became arbitration eligible for the first time this off season. He filed for $5 million, the team for $3 million. Often these differences are resolved and both parties agree to a salary somewhere in the middle (as the Twins did with all their arb guys), but not in this case. In an arbitration hearing, one side wins the other loses. There is no compromise in the middle. Typically another team's arbitration case wouldn't garner even the faintest interest from me, but I've been looking forward to this one. Having guys like David Robertson, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman around have made it pretty difficult for Betances to get saves. He has 22 of them over his career. It's clear by looking at his ERA and ratios that Betances is a rare bird no matter what inning he pitches, but those things don't typically play up in arbitration. Back in 2014, Kenley Jansen asked the Dodgers for $5.05M in his first year of arbitration, they offered $3.5M. Jansen eventually agreed to a $4.3M contract. Given the similarities of 2014 Kenley Jansen and current day Betances, I'd say it's a good bet he could have gotten $4.3M. But Betances has dug in his heels, and even delayed his arrival at spring training (with approval from the team) so he can prepare for and attend his hearing. If he wins, it could represent a victory for setup men and middle relievers across the league. There aren't many other pitchers on Betances' level, but a rising tide lifts all boats. Click here to view the article

His delivery looks a lot like Francisco Liriano's. His physique looks a lot like two Francisco Lirianos. Sorry, I couldn't resist Sometimes having a little extra weight seems to serve a starting pitcher well, but I'd be interested in how Mejia looks down in spring training. I was able to watch his first and last starts with the Red Wings. The results were good in both, but he looked tired in that final start. He wasn't finishing his delivery strong. To be fair, he set a career high with 134 innings pitched, so I suppose some fatigue is to be expected. But still, I wonder how old that 6'3" 195 lbs. listing is, cause he's nowhere near that now.

How does a guy have 4.6 K/9, 4.3 BB/9 and still post a 3.03 ERA over 92 innings like Stewart did in Double A? Magic. He's a wizard. Only logical explanation I've managed to come up with.

The actions (or lack there of) from the Twins' front office appear to have thrust Kennys Vargas into a position to be the team's designated hitter. While Twins fans are familiar with Vargas after seeing him in cameos the past three seasons, expectations are varied. And for good reason. We've seen Vargas look like a force worthy of an everyday role, and we've seen him struggle to the point it's fair to wonder if he is slapped with the dreaded Quad-A hitter label at some point.Byungho Park is still around, but having been removed from the 40-man roster, his path to playing time is obstructed. Potential free agent targets Jose Bautista (back with Toronto), Mike Napoli (back with Texas) and Chris Carter (signed with the Yankees) are off the market, leaving the likes of Pedro Alvarez, Adam Lind and Justin Morneau among the top available bats. In other words, it appears likely Vargas will get another opportunity to prove himself. There are some reasons to be optimistic. He's already been pretty good Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com recently shared some impressive numbers from last season, highlighting Vargas' exit velocity, launch angle and fly-ball rate. That piece is well worth your time, but even when you take his entire body of work from the past three seasons into account it's easy to see why the club would trust Vargas with DH duties. Vargas has compiled roughly a full season's worth of playing time (595 PAs over 158 games) and has a .251/.309/.434 line with 24 HR and 75 RBI. That's not going to win him a Silver Slugger or anything like that, but even if he doesn't improve at all you could do worse than a guy with a career 103 OPS+ as your DH. It's a good bet he'll continue to improve his strikezone control Vargas entered 2016 with 21 carer walks over 335 PAs in the majors. Last season, he surpassed that total in just over half as many PAs (24 BB in 177 PAs). Given his minor league track record, I don't think that was a fluke. MLB: 29.2 K%, 7.6 BB% AAA: 23.2 K%, 16.6 BB% AA: 18.0 K%, 12.4 BB% For what it's worth, Vargas' 66 walks tied him for second most in the International League last year. I think it's a safe to believe Vargas could maintain a walk rate in the double digits, which is something only 28% of qualified hitters could accomplish last season. Repeating his 2016 walk rate of 13.6% would put him into elite company, as that's only a shade behind Joe Mauer's. Just a dozen qualified hitters drew walks more frequently than that last year. I'm not as confident Vargas will get his strikeouts under control, but it's certainly possible. If he can keep up the walks and slug some more homers, however, it's not really gonna matter. Speaking of home runs, Vargas also had an uptick in longballs last season. His homer rate (HR every 15.2 ABs) was almost on par with Brian Dozier's (14.6 AB/HR). He had a better winter than it appears at first glance Some people have wondered if Vargas' poor numbers in winter ball clluld be a huge red flag. Vargas posted an ugly .179/.329/.316 line in winter ball. While that's not the way he wanted to follow up his MVP performance from the previous season, there are some silver linings. The Puerto Rican winter league is extremely pitcher friendly. Only three hitters posted an OPS north of .800 (former Twins farmhand Danny Ortiz led the league with an .813 OPS). And while Vargas' slash line looks bad, he still led the league in walks (24), was second in RBIs (18) and third in home runs (3). Again, it was certainly a disappointing performance, but he was far from a complete disaster. So, what do you think? Is this the year Vargas establishes himself or will he be back in Rochester before we know it? Click here to view the article

Here is a short YouTube video of him throwing in the AFL two years ago. To my eye it looks like he comes a little bit more over the top on the last pitch he throws in that sequence, which (as you alluded to) he has a reputation of doing. He also does a lot to try and throw hitters out of rhythm. He'll quick pitch or hold the ball for a really long time. Definitely tries to get every advantage he can. It's possible he's been getting by on gimmicks, and it's probably a bad idea to get too excited about a 26-year-old former 22nd-round pick, but I'm a believer. Like you said, the numbers are completely filthy.

H/T to Brandon Warne over at Cold Omaha on this one ... here's what current Assistant Director of Baseball Ops for the Braves, Kiley McDaniel, had to say about his defense: "he’s a plus defender at shortstop with a plus arm and above average speed, but the bat is light and there isn’t much power; his upside is a Cesar Izturis-type utility guy" Izturis was one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball for a decade. I haven't seen Adrianza play, but all the data and reports I can find are very complimentary of his defense.

If he can just coast to a .272/.352/.422 line like he had a the second half of last season, I'm totally cool with him being the top bench bat on a team that should have no trouble scoring runs.

Look at the staring lineup, who are you pinch hitting for? Maybe Castro, but not many managers like to put in the backup catcher unless absolutely necessary. Also, Grossman had a 126 OPS+ last season, maybe that was a mirage, but you gotta give him some credit. Outside of Dozier he was their best offensive player last year.

The Giants have never put him in the outfield over his entire minor league career. He has played 6,411 minor league innings, less that 100 of them have come at a position other than SS. Pretty clear they thought he was legit there. A lot of his time in San Francisco had been spent at 2B, but that's just because Brandon Crawford is a plus defensive SS.

I feel a little silly saying it, because there's probably a decent chance Adrianza gets DFA'd in a week if the Twins find somebody better floating out there, but I love this move. I've been clamoring for the Twins to add a legit defensive SS all offseason. No, this guy's probably not a threat to steal the starting gig (unless the new FO is really serious about improving the defense), but it's great to have a reliable glove man available to start once or twice a week and be a late inning defensive replacement off the bench. Some things to consider ... 1. Of the 88 players to amass 300 innings at SS since 2013, Adrianza ranks 3rd in UZR/150. He trails only Andrelton Simmons and Francisco Lindor. Sure, that's over a small sample, but still encouraging. 2. Adrianza has hit .311/.391/.431 in 439 PAs at AAA. Maybe there's more in that bat than he's show with the Giants. 3. I know a lot of people were intrigued by Pat Light's heat, but the guy averaged 5.7 BB/9 in Triple A over 57 total appearances. That's rough.

Some of the young arms should emerge eventually, but out the gate Chaggy is the only one worthy of breaking camp. Melotakis is on the 40-man, and should be pushed harder in his second season removed from Tommy John, but he could use at least another few months in the minors. Jake Reed is coming off a strong season, but it's not like he's dominated MiLB hitters. Nick Burdi needs to show he can just stay healthy for an extended period before he enters any call up conversations. Trevor Hildenberger has been amazing, he's maybe the next guy after Chaggy who most deserves a shot based on performance, but he's never even been to Rochester yet. Matt Belisle isn't going to block anyone. If one of the guys on the farm dominates, they'll find a way to give him an opportunity. It's likely somebody gets hurt (like Perkins last year) or is so bad they get cut (like Jepsen last year), if not by midseason they'll trade somebody away to make room (like Abad last year). One way or another, the cream always rises to the top.

I just realized I didn't address the elephant in the room ... Danny Santana. A lot of people, understandably, are frustrated that DanSan has stuck on the 40 man over so many of these other players (the list gets pretty long if we go back to last year too). But the fact remains that even with Dozier still around, infield depth is an issue. As the roster stands, we're just one injury away from having to rely on Engelb Vielma as the utility infielder and two away from having to call upon someone like Niko Goodrum, Tommy Field, Benji Gonzalez or Leonardo Reginatto. There's not that kind of dropoff when you go through nightmare scenarios in the outfield, at 1B/DH or even behind the plate. Right now Danny is needed as infield insurance, even though he's a terrible infielder. My hope is they will sign someone like Erick Aybar or Daniel Delscalso to provide infield depth, at that point I think we can expect to see Santana DFA'd. Until then, it seems his spot is pretty secure.

It was a shock to see the Twins elect to designate Byungho Park for assignment. There was plenty of speculation over who would be removed from the 40-man roster to make room for Matt Belisle, but nobody suggested it would be Park, who was just signed last winter.Looking at some of the other moves made under Derek Falvey, maybe we should have known better. It's becoming clear a goal of this offseason has been to eliminate redundancies. Last offseason, the Twins were faced with the challenge of figuring out what to do with Miguel Sano, thanks in large part to the assumption Park would take over at DH. The team could have been faced with a similar situation this year, but among Falvey's first moves was to non-tender Trevor Plouffe. Boom, problem solved. For better or worse, the team is now firmly committed to Sano at third base, his natural position. It appears, for now at least, the same could be said in regard to Kennys Vargas at DH. It remains to be seen whether or not the team signs a veteran slugger such as Mike Napoli, but it's clear now they have made the decision to prioritize Vargas over Park. There was really no reason to make that call this early, especially since Vargas has another option year. But the previous regime was criticized for dragging its feet in regard to making a decision on Plouffe's future, so it's difficult to argue with this move. As unnecessary as it seems, it does provides clarity. Of course, it's entirely possible Park remains in the Twins organization. But at that point he will no longer be on the 40-man roster, creating an even greater obstacle for him to return to Target Field. Regardless of any unforeseen additions, Vargas will not have that same issue. There have been a couple of other, minor moves this offseason in which Falvey and Co. have made tough decisions on similarly skilled players. It was unlikely both Adam Brett Walker and Daniel Palka were ever going to coexist, given their similarities. Walker had a crazy ride on the waiver/DFA roller coaster before landing with the Braves. That leaves Palka as the team's lone young slugging outfielder in Triple A. Behind the plate, the careers of Mitch Garver and Stuart Turner were intertwined, but much like with Walker/Palka, it was clear at some point the team would have to pick between the two. Turner was selected in the Rule 5 Draft by the Reds and will compete for the backup catcher spot in spring training. Turner has a realistic opportunity to break camp with the Reds, but if he's returned to the Twins it's more clear now than ever that he's behind Garver in the catching pecking order. Given the team's new depth behind the dish, Turner may even have to go back to Double A if he's returned to the organization. It never seems to be a good thing when an organization loses a player and receives nothing in return, which could be the case with Park. But sometimes such a departure can create huge opportunities just by opening up playing time for other guys in the org. So, looking ahead, what could be next for the Twins' roster makeover? Overshadowed by the Park DFA was the news that Trevor May is going to be given every opportunity to be a starting pitcher this season. With May in the mix, the Twins have no shortage of starting pitching options. Somebody will more than likely be pushed to the bullpen (Tyler Duffey?). With the addition of Belisle, however, things are looking very competitive among the reliever corps, as well. Some time between now and Opening Day, it's entirely possible we'll see another surprise move or two by the front office in order to provide clarity on the pitching staff. Click here to view the article

Happy to see this. Upgrades the bullpen without necessarily blocking the youth. Not long ago I asked Ted at Off The Baggy who he thought would get dropped from the 40 man if something like this happened, his guess was Buddy Boshers. That makes a lot of sense, given the presence of fellow lefty Glen Perkins, Taylor Rogers, Ryan O'Rourke and Mason Melotakis on the 40 man. Randy Rosario would also seem like a candidate, but I think since we're adding a pitcher it would be surprising to see Danny Santana removed from the 40 man.

Yeah but ... Eddie Rosario: 25.2 K%, 74.2 contact% Mallex Smith: 22.3 K%, 73.1 contact% I think Tampa's main motivation was to dump Smyly's salary.

Can't argue against any thing here. But I came up with a comp to the Smyly package. He was traded for Mallex Smith, Ryan Yarbrough and Carlos Vargas. I think Rosario is a comparable piece to Smith, if not more valuable. But Smith's main tool is his center field defense, so it's tough to compare the two. If Rosario wouldn't be enough, I'm sure Polanco would be. Not the same position, but I'm sure after trading Forsythe the Rays could use a 2B, too. Ryan Yarbrough had a nice year at Double A, but he's 25. A former fourth-round pick, a Twins comp to him might be a guy like Ryan Eades or D.J. Baxendale. Carlos Vargas is a 17-year-old shortstop who played in the DSL. He and Wander Javier were in the same international signing class. Javier got $4 M, Vargas got $1.7 M. So this would need to be a intriguing young international signee, but no one near the level of Javier. I don't have my prospect handbook on me (FAIL!), so I don't have a specific name for this one. So, for two years of Smyly (career ERA+ of 108 would be best on the starting rotation) would you give up Rosario/Polanco, Eades/Baxendale and an interesting 17-year-old, but by no means your top young guy? I'd do that in a heartbeat. Maybe that means the comp I came up with is nowhere near as good as the package the Rays got for Smyly, I don't know.

I disagree with this. With the team's depth of young position players, why is trading one of them for a pitching upgrade not an option? Dan Straily and Drew Smyly were both recently traded for packages that included one player with less that half a season of MLB experience and two minor league prospects. I don't know if you can find a comparable Twins package to those deals specifically, but I would assume the Twins could put together a similar package to upgrade the rotation. Those are just recent examples, there have been a number of starting pitchers traded this winter. Obviously, prospects are incredibly valuable to a team like the Twins, but there are already a lot of guys on the roster who are under 25, the farm system is still pretty strong and the No. 1 pick/top bonus pool should mean it's only going to get better. If your veterans like Dozier can't be used in a trade to upgrade the pitching, at what point do you try to use the prospect depth to improve the staff? Never?

Awesome stuff. Hopefully the coaching staff can figure out the right amount of info to feed Buxton. Regarding Bautista eliminating a pitch, I was always surprised opposing hitters didn't just refuse to swing at Francisco Liriano's slider. Could say the same about Tyler Duffey's curve, but I suppose that's tougher to do on pitches guys throw 30-40% of the time.

Better yet, move the Rays up here and we'll rename them the Minnesota Green Pastures