TwinsMusings

My guesses: Vargas is getting the vast majority of the DH at-bats, the ones Pinto got earlier in the year, and Gardy doesn't see him as the "best chance to win at C" against teams still in contention. I have no problem with the former, but do not buy the latter.

To this fan the Twins' front office and field staff appear to be not keeping up with the times. We may see a few signs of recognition that they know it, but few signs that they are doing much about it. In contrast, here is an interesting article about the changes made by the Angels and their long-time manager. http://www.ocregister.com/articles/year-635556-dipoto-angels.html

Picking up on a comment 'stringer bell' made on another topic I thought was worth a new thread. (Here is the comment.) "Speaking of concern, I wonder how good Perkins is going to be for the remainder of his contract. Honestly, I think he has to adapt some and perhaps come up with another pitcher. He has stayed with his 92-94 mph fastball and his slider. I think he needs to have something that is a change of speeds. I think he threw one changeup yesterday and it was in the dirt. Everybody seems to throw at least 92 in mlb bullpens, so he really needs to locate his fastball." --- I agree that Perkins needs to make some kind of adjustment. His pitch selection has been quite predictable lately. I figure if I can predict what pitch he is going to throw when, the hitters (and opposing scouts/hitting coaches) can too. Part of his recent less than stellar results might be failing to locate especially his fastball, but even when he throws the ball where he wants to, for example slider down and in to Abreu in yesterday's game, the hitter seems to know what is coming. Granted, Abreu is an elite hitter and sometimes you just tip your hat to the hitter getting to a pitch mere mortals would flail at, but recently Perkins has been anything but elite with less that great hitters. Is he tired? Still ailing? Beginning to decline? What are your thoughts?

For fans of Byron Buxton, here is a recent story in the Des Moines Register about his life in Low-A ball. http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20130526/SPORTS/305220105/1003/?source=nletter-news&nclick_check=1

Interesting analysis and comments. One more factor that is most likely contributing to his struggles is the lead-off hitter's role, at least in part, is to see lots of pitches to help the hitters behind him in the lineup. Is Hicks taking too many first pitches that are good pitches to hit because he wants to extend the first at bat?

That outfield would be fun to watch if many fly balls are hit. Which one of those three guys is going to hit his way on to the opening day roster?

Based on the likelihood the Twins will open the season with 13 position players, and assuming they keep two or three catchers and four or five outfielders, there is room for six infielders. Unless an injury or unexpected event occurs during spring training, it looks like Morneau, Plouffe, Carroll, Dozier, Escobar and Florimon will be the six. From all I have read about the middle infield situation, including comments from Terry Ryan and Ron Gardenhire, I expect Florimon will start the season at SS and Dozier at 2B with Carroll and Escobar as utility players. I think, especially at his age, Jamey Carroll's best role is as a utility infielder. Because he is so solid defensively, I would use him as the primary backup for 2B and 3B leaving SS to Escobar as the first in if Florimon falters or is rested. By mid-season we should know more about the younger players – which ones will succeed and which will show they are not ready or major league material. I won’t speculate too much in this thread about those younger guys, but will say I have my doubts about all three. With regard to Carroll, I think we are going to see the Twins management doing whatever they can to limit his plate appearance so as not to automatically trigger his option. If the Twins are miraculously in the hunt at the trade deadline, that probably will be at least in part because one or both of Florimon or Dozier is/are performing well above expectations and Carroll will most likely be serving as a utility guy, so his time can be limited. The only way he is starting regularly is if Dozier or Plouffe is out an extended time with an injury. If the Twins are out of contention, it would make some sense to trade Carroll to a contender who needs a solid utility guy to strengthen a roster for the pennant run (and let that team worry about the plate appearance trigger). If the Twins are in full rebuild mode by mid-season, having a veteran utility guy taking a roster spot that could be used for a younger player, does not make much sense. So, my prediction is Carroll will serve well the first half of the season as a utility player, but will not finish the season with the Twins and he will be a free agent in search of a team in 2014 so he can play at age 40. He will probably still be good enough to latch on to a contender looking for a solid veteran presence on the bench, and I hope for his sake he gets that chance.

I have trouble getting very excited about payroll discussions because the public information on total revenue of the Twins (a private corporation) is not complete and not knowing how much the total revenue is makes it difficult to project what "50-52%" really is. For example, I have trouble believing the Twins actually spent 50% of total revenue on payroll in 2010. No responsible business would BUDGET for 100% attendance. Their budget may have projected 50% based on expected revenue, but I'd be very surprised if income did not greatly exceed budget expectations in 2010. For 2013, I expect the Twins management will project lower revenue from attendance, but that does not mean overall revenue will be lower. We will never know all of the rest of the revenue. Based on what Pohlad and Ryan have been reported as saying publicly, I expect the 2013 payroll to be whatever Terry Ryan decides it should be. They may have a target number, but philosophy, longer term projections, and availability of players to fit the philosophy and projections will have more to do with the final number than any hard and fast budget decision. If I had to guess right now, I'd say somewhere between $90 and $100 million will be where he ends up projecting around opening day.

What is announced publicly and what actually happens behind the scenes are not always the same. Although I have no real evidence to prove it, I would be very surprised if Terry Ryan did not, over the past month or so, explore every option for a buyout that included Nishioka's signing with a Japanese team - effectively trading him back home to Japan for "cash considerations". My guess is there were no takers at that price, but it would not surprise me if some Japanese teams showed interest if he was a free agent. All Ryan had to do in that case is report that to Nishioka and his agent at let them do the math and consider the damage to his "brand" if he stayed one more year at AAA. In fact, Ryan may have told him AAA was not guaranteed if he would be blocking other prospects. For all we know, Ryan may have told Nishioka he was going to be released and gave him the option of public face saving. Nishioka can now say he did what Japanese culture expects. (Many examples of Japanese business/government leaders resigning and taking responsibility.) Nishioka can go home saying he "resigned, took responsibility, and is willing to return to Japanese baseball to restore his dignity and honor." The bonus is: almost certainly he will make more money in the long run by doing so.

In 2013, Jamey Carroll should be a utility player. His value is highest in that role in part because he is a great role-model for the younger players to learn from and emulate. Professional attitude and consistent effort from the bench is essential and he provides it. If Carroll reaches the number of AB to trigger the option for 2014, it will be less that he has "earned" them and more that one or more of the starters are injured or faltering.

I agree with others who have already said he needs to pitch inside more often, but maybe one of the reasons he is less effective in the majors than he was in the minors is major league hitters can hit breaking balls much more consistently effectively taking away his best 'out' pitch. Last night he was simply not able to put away hitters when he had two strikes on them. Has anyone done a count of how many two-strike foul balls they hit off him? It is those long at bats that run up the pitch count just as much as missing the corners or not getting the strike calls.

Not bringing up Slama is more disappointing than surprising to me. I would like to have seen him get one more chance at the big league level, but he is not on the 40-man roster - taken off last off-season - and for some reason the Twins do not see him as part of the future. His age (28) plus time on the DL again this summer may have something to do with it.

Reasonable rules. OK by me. I presume with rule #4 the standing exception is the bloggers who post a copy here of content they post originally elsewhere.

http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_21364660/minnesota-twins-carl-pavano-shut-down-season-after Shipley's story has a bit more detail. From one of Pavano's quotes it sounds like there was more than one injury and he and the trainer did get the shoulder rehabbed, but still had pain. Does anybody remember when Pavano might have been hit on the arm by a come-backer causing the bruise? In spring training? Hard to see how the Twins will be interested in bringing him back unless he is willing to take substantially less in guaranteed salary.

Actually, some of us get both...living in Iowa and being able to watch the Twins. In my case here in north Iowa, my cable company carries FSN so almost every Twins game is on TV - HD even. Of course, that doesn't make the Twins any better. And, for those who don't live in Iowa and have not reason to know this, MLB.tv blacks out SIX MLB teams in Iowa (whether they are on FSN, FOX, ESPN or WGN) because we are considered "in market" for all of them! (Twins, Brewers, Cubs, White Sox, Cardinals, Royals) It does tend to make us a bit cranky if we are interested in one of those teams and our cable provider chooses to be "in market" for the wrong team for our interests. A little sympathy and help pressuring the Twins management and MLB from you Minnesotans would be appreciated.

Vasquez makes sense at this point in the season. The Twins need someone for Blackburn's slot in the rotation and it gives them a chance to get a look at Vasquez early. Hendriks might be another alternative, but he will most likely not get called up until September and even then only if he keeps pitching well at AAA.

This move was at least as much about Rochester's need as it was the Twins'. Tosoni just went on the DL and they were going to have to call up an OF from AA. This move is much better for both Rochester and Revere, who as many have already said, will benefit from regular playing time. Thomas will be a decent defensive replacement for all three OF positions for the Twins, so it works for the ML team as well.

There are still a couple of weeks to go, but if Morneau does not start hitting the ball with authority more consistently, the best option would be to open the season on the DL and continue to get as many AB as possible in extended spring training. I can't imagine Gardenhire moving him to the bottom of the order in the lineup and right now, he is not a cleanup hitter. Parlmelee is hitting the ball well and would help the Twins much more than a struggling Morneau. Some room for optimism: listened to the game on radio today and while he was 0-3, he hit the ball hard twice, both to opposite side.

Right now Burroughs does not appear to be versatile enough for a utility role. I think it is just as likely at the end of spring training that Terry Ryan will find a SS/UTIL guy from outside the organization to handle that role until Dozier is ready. If they go with who they have right now, I'd expect Chang or Hollimon to get the spot, but just until Dozier is called up sometime in June (or before is someone is injured or doesn't perform). One reason I don't see Dozier on the opening day roster is Gardenhire likes to rotate his bench players into games fairly regularly, especially in the early part of the season. If Dozier is on the team, he needs to play every day with just an occasional day off. In the bullpen, I'd be surprised if Maloney is not with the team opening day. He has pitched too well to expose to waivers, and I believe he is out of options. Also, according to Terry Ryan, Maloney, Swarzak and Hendriks are going to be stretched out in case they are needed as starters. That would put Maloney as my #1 option to move into the rotation is Baker or someone else is not ready. Manship is probably the odd man out.

By now you have probably seen this, but Rhett Bollinger, Phil Mackey and Joe Christensen have all reported via Twitter that Plouffe has a slight hamstring strain and is out until at least Wednesday according to Terry Ryan.

Good point, JB. I suspect marketing was a big part of the decision.

Yeah, I know, just wishful thinking.

Didn't say I liked it. Just looking at probabilities. I'd negotiate a buyout and let him go back to Japan where he might be able to have some success again.

Answers: 1) Liam Hendriks or Matt Maloney 2) Maloney or Swarzak. At this point, it looks like Baker may just be held out until they need a fifth starter around April 15 and no one would replace him in the rotation. In that case, an additional relief pitcher (Manship?) may be kept for the first 10 days or an additional hitter could be on the opening day roster. The latter might improve Nishioka's chances of staying with the team a little longer.

Thanks, Seth. I just saw that via Twitter.