Steven Buhr

It's the offseason, so that means we are already deep in thought and discussion concerning 2015 roster construction for the Minnesota Twins. I reserve the right to change my mind, of course, but my preliminary thought on the subject has resulted in a conclusion I wasn't expecting. Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano should both be Minnesota Twins on Opening Day 2015. True, General Manager Terry Ryan has some time before he has to give much thought to such an un-Twins-like idea. (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com) Ryan can spend October finding a manager, gathering with his staff for organizational meetings in Florida and putting together a minor league field management organization. But when the final out is made in this year's World Series, it's time to get serious about this roster. When he does, maybe Buxton and Sano should part of his plan. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Buxton31.jpg Byron Buxton My thoughts aren't firmly in place yet, but it occurs to me that, if we're all so certain that the Twins' GM needs to think a bit differently than he has in the past when it comes to hiring a manager and coaching staff, maybe it's time to think a bit differently about how he treats his future superstars, too. So, even if you think I've lost my mind (and I may ultimately conclude the same thing), hear me out for a moment. I think most Twins fans would like to see improvement in two specific areas next season. First, as seems to always be the case, we want another top-tier starting pitcher. Maybe Ricky Nolasco will bounce back or maybe he won't. If he doesn't, Phil Hughes is going to need help at the top of the rotation. Even if Nolasco does rebound, I'd love to have him as my #3 starter rather than my #2, if I could land a bigger fish in the offseason. The second area of relative consensus is that the outfield must improve. The Twins scored enough runs in 2014 to be a competitive baseball team. They simply didn't keep opponents from crossing the plate nearly enough. If the starting pitching was problem number 1A, the outfield defense was certainly 1B. Fixing the starting pitching is easy enough. You shell out the money to lure one of the top free agent starters. If you're not willing to do that, you might reach for another Phil Hughes-type, but I'm not enthused about that approach. I think you go for the top guys or you just load up Trevor May and Alex Meyer to go with Hughes, Nolasco and Kyle Gibson and get Jose Berrios ready for an early call-up when it becomes necessary. As tired as we all are of losing 90 games, making a managerial changes takes a little bit of pressure off in terms of the 2015 season. For the first time in about three years, you don't enter the season with the staff coaching for their professional lives. So, if you can't (or won't) add a true difference-maker to your rotation, you can simply accelerate the advancement of those minor leaguers that you feel are closest to being ready. Which brings us to the outfield dilemma. The outfield situation is only a dilemma because of Byron Buxton. Without his presence looming, you could address the outfield just like you do the starting pitching - go out and get the best guy you can buy or trade for on the market. But Buxton's presence means (1) the Twins won't add someone on a high-dollar long-term deal that would "block" Buxton, and (2) no centerfielder on the free agent market with designs on a long-term deal is going to want to come to Minnesota, anyway. That appears to leave the Twins with two options. Either they identify a short-term solution they can sign/trade for or they keep the status quo, using Jordan Schafer or Danny Santana until Buxton is deemed ready for prime time. With expectations dampened and a new manager in the dugout, however, maybe it's time to just say, "screw development," and throw Byron Buxton out there right from the start. And while you're at it, do the same thing with Miguel Sano. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/SanoST11-742x1024.jpg Miguel Sano These two guys are going to be the cornerstones of the Twins for years to come, so why not just get them in the game right now? Sure, they'll struggle. But if they don't arrive until 2016, you have to assume they'll struggle some, then, too. Okay, I know, we can think of a number of reasons NOT to do this. They both essentially lost their entire 2014 seasons to injury and there is no assurance either player is really ready to face Major League pitching. The specter of Aaron Hicks' two years of near-abject failure, after being pushed up to the big leagues prematurely, looms over the organization. And he came up after spending almost twice as much time as Sano at AA, a level Buxton hasn't technically completed a full game at, much less a season. You certainly wouldn't want to damage the psyches of Buxton or Sano by having them fail miserably. But you know what? From what I've seen of these two guys, I don't think we have to worry about their psyches. Both players know what their destinies are and they aren't going to let a little bit of a learning curve keep them from getting where they know they belong in this game. We have seen how they address new challenges. They see. They learn. They adjust. Then they dominate. So, maybe the Twins should just skip the whole, "what do we do to improve the outfield until Buxton gets here," era and put the guy in centerfield. Maybe you take them aside and say, "Guys, if you're healthy in April, you're going to be Minnesota Twins. You may perform like Kennys Vargas or you may look more like Aaron Hicks, but you're going to stay in Minnesota. You will not be sent back to the minors. From this point forward, you are Major League baseball players. Now get to work and act like it." The thing is, you can't wait until spring training to make this decision. It wouldn't be fair to Trevor Plouffe. If Sano is going to step in as your primary third baseman, Plouffe needs to spend some time this winter learning to play left field. Maybe he and Joe Mauer could learn together. For that matter, I'd tell Sano to go out there and shag some fly balls, too, because I'm not convinced the Twins won't discover they're better off defensively with Sano in the outfield and Plouffe at the hot corner. But one way or another, maybe Buxton and Sano should be in the Opening Day line up. Imagine for a moment: Buxton CF Dozier 2B Mauer 1B Vargas DH Sano LF/3B Arcia RF Plouffe 3B/LF Escobar/Santana SS Suzuki C I'd buy tickets to see that line up, no matter who the starting pitcher is. I bet a few other people would, too.

Winning will put butts in the seats. The first, last and only consideration should be who, in the GM's opinion, will be most successful at turning this team in to a winner.

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Molitor would be open to using any information available to him in order to improve his team's chances of winning.

I don't know either, Thrylos. But then, I don't know that there's any consensus among baseball people (not to mention Twins fans) who the best manager candidate out there is. It's not like there are any established successful managers out there to go get like there are some years. I want to see a legitimate search, then in time we'll see if the right choice was ultimately made. And honestly, I'm more concerned that there is some new blood in the inner circle of the coaching staff for whoever the manager might be. Molitor and Mientkiewicz were not "insiders" in that they were not part of Gardy's inner circle. Keep in mind, if Gardy would have stepped aside 3 years ago, we'd very likely be looking at someone like Scott Ullger as the frontrunner.

Maybe. But Mattingly got a 3 year extension after last season and I'd be surprised if he's not with the Dodgers next year.

OK I don't think I'd disagree with that. What if he puts up similar numbers in AA (and higher), though? If he turns out to be one of those guys who will simply always strike out at a high rate and hit .250... but produce 30+ HR per season (which his MiLB HR numbers would roughly equate to over a full MLB season)... I think I'd find a place for him. I'm not counting on Walker doing that. But I've probably been more impressed with what he has accomplished than others have.

Over a week ago, I wrote about what I would do if I owned the Minnesota Twins, including giving my GM instructions to fire his manager. Obviously, Jim Pohlad not only read my article, but took it to heart because less than a week later, Ron Gardenhire was out as manager of the Twins. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/TRyan2014c.jpg GM Terry Ryan In the days since that announcement, speculation has been rampant concerning who the next manager might be. For his part, General Manager Terry Ryan said he would cast a wide net. He indicated he would look inside and outside the organization and that "diversity" would be a factor, both for the manager position and, ultimately, for the Twins' coaching staff (further evidence that my advice, which included instructions for adding more Latin American coaches, was being followed almost to the letter). (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com) It occurs to me, now, that I may have done a disservice to the Twins GM in my earlier article. I honestly didn't expect Twins ownership to follow my advice. Heck, I didn't even know Pohlad was one of my loyal readers. Had I known how quickly he would take my advice to heart and act on it, I would have includes advice to Ryan on how to go about replacing Gardenhire. But I didn't. My bad. But today, I'm going to rectify that oversight. Better late than never, right? The Twins are a tight-knit organization. Rare is the case when something involving the internal workings of the front office reaches the public until the top dogs in that office want it to. How do you know when they want the public to know something? Just assume that if you're reading it, they want you to know it. You'll be correct 99% of the time. So here's what the Twins want us to know about their manager search, so far: Paul Molitor and Doug Mientkiewicz have been interviewed, Molitor more than once. Both are serious candidates for the job. Gene Glynn will be interviewed. Ozzie Guillen will not. That's about all of it. You know what? Molitor, Mientkiewicz and Glynn would all, in my opinion, have the potential to be excellent choices. If Terry Ryan introduces one of them as the next manager on Monday morning, you won't find me yielding a pitchfork and marching on Target Field. But it would be wrong. To explain, allow me to digress briefly and talk about Iowa Hawkeyes football - specifically the head coaching job at Iowa. A lot of Hawkeye fans love long-time coach Kirk Ferentz. A lot of Hawkeye fans would like to see Ferentz replaced. But, a good number of those fans have an unrealistic view of the Iowa program and the kind of coaching candidates the Iowa job might attract. Iowa is not Alabama, USC or Ohio State. You would not get top tier coaches tripping over themselves to take over the Iowa program. You would have to either hire from within or hire a lower tier outside candidate who has not yet proven himself. In other words, when you talk about replacing Kirk Ferentz at Iowa, you'd better be careful what you wish for. But here's the thing: The Minnesota Twins are not in that position. Sure, they've had 90+ losses for four straight years. That might seem like the kind of thing that would relegate the organization to a position where they have to be satisfied with the left-overs after the good teams in Major League Baseball decide who they want as their manager. However, "good" MLB teams already have their managers in place. It's not like there are going to be teams in the postseason immediately letting their managers go the day after their seasons end. Manager candidates are being interviewed in a number of locations across baseball, but each of those teams has one thing in common - they played bad baseball in 2014. Currently, there are three managerial openings: the Texas Rangers, the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Twins. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Milwaukee Brewers added to that list in coming days, but as things stand right now, the Twins' 92 losses are the fewest among teams currently interviewing for a new manager. The Minnesota Twins should be choice number 1 for anyone with designs on landing a big league manager's job in 2015. Texas and Arizona have had front office disruptions in recent years. In Arizona, your new General Manager was a player agent a couple weeks ago and will be reporting to an executive who was a Hall of Fame caliber manager. In both locations, the manager is going to have multiple bosses looking over his shoulder, all of which likely believe they could do your job better than you do (and in at least one case, he'd probably be right). Arizona and Texas don't have terrible talent. They have some guys who know how to to play baseball and they have minor league organizations considered to be at least average in terms of the talent moving through the pipeline. (It's that dreary farm system of the Brewers that anyone considering a run at a potential Milwaukee opening should be wary of.) Arizona is going to be rebuilding and trying to compete in a division with the Giants, who field perennial championship level teams, and the Dodgers, who are clearly committed to leaving the New York Yankees in the dust when it comes to being willing to spend money to buy championships. The Rangers "only" have to deal with the Angels and A's, I guess. The Twins, on the other hand, had one of the top ranked farm systems in baseball heading in to 2014 and have a General Manager about whom their owner has stated that he'd be the GM for as long as he wants to remain in the job. That GM leads an organization that has demonstrated loyalty (to a fault, some might say) to managers. The Tigers are aging and the Royals' postseason run assures that they'll retain Ned Yost as manager, which virtually assures that you won't be viewed as the worst manager in your division, no matter what. Who, in his right mind, would prefer one of the other open positions over the Twins' job? Which, finally, brings us to this advice for Terry Ryan: You need to get this right. That's not only the most important thing, it's the only important thing, in this process. And here's the process: Step 1 - Talk to those in baseball you respect and ask them who they believe are the top 3 potential managers in all of baseball not currently under contract to manage another MLB team. Then make your own list of the top half dozen names or so. Step 2 - Interview everybody on that list and identify those that not only are likely to succeed in 2015, but have a, "you never stop learning," approach to life in general and baseball in particular, which you can envision allowing him to lead your team to success for the next decade. Ask each of them to tell you what they've learned about the game of baseball in the past two years that they didn't know before. Anyone who can't give you a number of ways in which they have expanded their baseball knowledge in that time should immediately be crossed off your list. Step 3 - Rank your candidates after interviewing all of them, and not before. Step 4 - Hire the name at the top of your list. It's really that simple. Don't get lost in a quagmire of details like how many years of experience they have as a manager at the big league level or at the minor league level or as a coach in the big leagues or whether their players liked them or not. Everyone who has coached/managed at any level has players who liked them and players who didn't. Every one of them has success stories - and has failed at something. Just act like you are the General Manager offering the best managerial opportunity in baseball and you are entitled to hire the best managerial candidate. You deserve that. The Twins deserve that. Twins fans deserve nothing less.

The CR bullpen absolutely drove the K rate. But starters Gonsalves, Batts and, to a lsser degree, Hu, got their share of Ks after they arrived, in addition to Thorpe.

Several critical aspects weren't mentioned here and while I prefer Mientkiewicz as a candidate over Molitor by a slight margin, I think a fair analysis requires some additional information be considered. Age is one factor, but in terms of being able to relate to the next wave of young players, I think you have to consider the fact that Molitor has been at least as involved in the development of guys like Buxton and Sano (and others) as Mientkiewicz has. In fact, media reports have both of the Twins' top prospects strongly voicing support for Molitor, who worked directly with them in his role as a minor league instructor. Molitor has at least as much of a pedigree related to more modern analytical metrics as Mientkiewicz, who admittedly is not much in to the "SABR" approach. Questioning why Molitor hasn;t been offered other opportunities is kind of a non-issue with me. It was pretty well established that during certain periods, he was not interested in positions that required full time travel due to family matters. His renewed interest recently coincided with children getting a bit older. If you minimize that factor, perhaps you haven't faced a similar family dynamic. I like both guys as options. Either could be excellent managers. They have very different personalities and I'm not sure, frankly, which is more conducive to leading the Twins at this point. But Molitor is a baseball savant and has an excellent rapport with many of the players coming up through the organization, just as Mientkiewicz does. The only advantage I give Mientkiewicz is that I could imagine him as a Twins manager for a more extended period in to the future than Molitor. That's a very slim advantage.

Based on your opinion, shouldn't Walker also "dominate" AA in 2015? If he hasn't impressed you the last 2 years, why would he impress you by producing in the next level?

I need to be careful not to have this sound like I'm arguing "against" Stewart because I like him a lot and definitely believe he has top of the rotation potential. That said, I wonder how much of our "ranking" of him, compared to others, is influenced by his high position in the draft. Watching him this season in the same rotation with Hu, Thorpe and Gonsalves, made me realize I just don't see any reason why any one of them should be considered much more probable to find himself at the top of a rotation in the future. Hu and Thorpe were international signings. Thorpe would have graduated from HS this past spring if he'd been in the US. Pretty good bet he'd have been a high pick. Gonsalves projected (I believe) as a 1st or 2nd round draft pick the same year as Stewart but fell due to some "character" issues that turned out to be total BS. Hu is a year older (he can legally buy a beer here in a month) and definitely more advanced in development at this point. I'm not sure if that means we're ranking Stewart too high or the others not high enough. Just saying there isn't much difference between them in my book.

On both points: The TD Offseason Handbook includes organizational depth charts for each position. It’s one of the first sections I look at when I get my copy. I started jotting a few names down, as well, for a few positions, but it’s kind of premature to do until we know which minor league free agents the Twins re-sign. A number of AA and AAA guys could either elect to go elsewhere or not be offered contracts by the Twins and that would affect those depth charts. There’s no point in looking at starting pitcher “depth,” if by that we mean potential #4/5 starters. If that’s the likely spot for any guy you’re looking at signing or trading for, don’t bother. Let some of these guys get a few starts with the Twins in 2015 instead. But if we’re looking at landing one of the big fish via FA or trade, then the presence of the guys listed shouldn’t stop you from doing so. Landing a new #1 pushes Hughes, Gibson, et al, down a slot, so you tell these younger pitchers they’ll need to beat out someone a bit more established. Makes them beat someone out instead of just competing for an “open” rotation spot. That’s how rotations improve, not by simply cycling new arms through the #4/5 spots.

Yeah, I was going to give Seth a hard time about him projecting that so many of these guys apparently are being traded to the Rockies (NB's new affiliate). We're all going to have to get used to the Chattanooga thing. Like others, I'm not as high on Rogers as Seth is. Honestly, I'm not sure I'll have Stewart ranked as high, either, when I do my own list (usually after Arizona League). I thought he had a perfectly fine season in CR and looks like a potential top of the rotation guy, but I'm not sure he showed me enough to merit a top 5 ranking. Certainly top 10 though, so it's probably splitting hairs a bit.

I agree that it makes sense to consider pretty much any offer of valuable MLB player for prospects at the level of guys below your top 10 (and maybe higher). After all, the downside of having such a deep farm is that it will be virtually impossible to keep all these guys through to the point where they are legit big leaguers. There simply won't be room for all of them with the Twins. However, I'll also say that going back to the era from which the comparison was made by birdwatcher, I don't recall ever being terribly enthused by even the top 10 prospects on those lists, much less the 11-20 list.

I'd ask "President of what?" but it really doesn't matter. I can't think of anything I'd want to be President of, at this time.

Um... can I convince you that I didn't forget him and that I was just including him among "maybe others"? Yeah, didn't think so.

At least right now we can take some pleasure in knowing that the Twins could probably staff a rotation capable of winning any U21 tournament in the world with the likes of Stewart, Thorpe, Hu, Gonsalves, Romero, Jorge, Rosario (and maybe others I'm forgetting) if/when all are healthy.

Thanks for sharing. We get so wrapped up in the ups and downs of this team on the field, but it's great to be reminded that these players are also people and that many of them go the extra mile to help others by supporting various worthy causes. It's one area where we can be proud of the Twins players, regardless of their record on the field.

Based solely on what I saw of a few opposing hitters trying to adjust to a Nick Burdi 93 mph slider, I'd say you're pretty much on the nose here.

I agree with you on all points except the "Mauer can play third or OF" part. First, when you look at the talented OF prospects that will begin to logjam within the next year or two, I don't believe there will be room for Mauer in the Twins OF. Second, I think people underestimate how hard it is to play a MLB level third base. If being athletic was all it required, I wouldn't have any question that Sano would stick there. He's every bit as athletic as Mauer and then some. As for dealing Pinto, sure. But he's not going to bring you the return we're talking about here.

Unfortunately, that level of clarity is a ways off and in fact may not materialize for years to come. Sometimes, you have to take risks as a GM. That said, I'm not sure it's a risk I would take either, at this point.

You aren't alone on liking the idea of Ozzie Guillen because I know a lot of people who feel that way. I'm just not really one of them. There are aspects of his personality and managing philosophy I like a lot, but I just feel like with him, HE ends up being "the story" far too often for my tastes.

I probably already know the answer, but I'm going to ask it anyway. What if, instead of Buxton, it's Sano that gets you Hamels (or, preferably, some younger top 5-type SP)? At this point, are you any more inclined to listen? I can't speak for anyone else, but while I've always hoped Sano would stick at 3B (and believe he should continue to get every opportunity to do so), deep down I've always felt he would probably end up at 1B/DH. For me, Kennys Vargas was a lottery ticket... never felt real confident his game would translate in to a serious MLB power hitter, but if it did, you'd have a potential monster coming pretty close to the ceiling I've inwardly placed on Sano. IF... IF... Vargas is really that good going forward, can you consider a Sano trade for a young ace you'll have on staff for a while?

If I came back from my cruise and TR came to my office and said, "hey I got the 'ace' pitcher, there are two guys named Pedro on the coaching staff, Ozzie Guillen is our new manager and Sano & Meyer will be on the opening day roster. But, coming off an injury, I REALLY think Buck needs to start the season in Chattanooga," I think I'd probably have two reactions: 1) I'm fine with Buxton starting the season at AA, but if he's lighting it up in May, I don't want to hear about how he needs more time; and 2) Did you really say Ozzie freaking Guillen?