d-mac
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Everything posted by d-mac
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Bravo!
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Last time I checked Dozier doesn't pitch. Wait, let me check again... Nope. Still doesn't pitch.
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Keeping assets beyond their "sell by" date guarantees you get nothing. I don't know how anybody that followed the Twins the last 5 seasons or so wouldn't have learned that lesson. And by the way, nobody is saying "Give him away for anything!" That's a strawman. De Leon has already been established as part (and presumably not the whole) of a return. And I think that is a good get. I believe De Leon will give the Twins better future value than Dozier will. I don't mean that he will give the Twins more WAR than Dozier- I mean that he fits what we are trying to do- find young, talented, cost controlled arms to pair with our core of position players and get back to contention 3 years or so down the road. Dozier's added WAR over the next two years is of little value to the Twins.
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Actually, Berrios did have concerns- particularly about his height preventing him from controlling home runs in the majors and the lack of height affecting his long term durability. But we know that a lot of that was nonsense- there isn't much correlation between height and durability/injuries or home run rate. For the latter, command is the most important piece.
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True, but it's hard to find any pitching prospect without durability or injury concerns.
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Well then you may be left holding the check. A bird in hand is better than two in the bush.
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Elite contact rate in the zone, along with his minor league numbers- that screams top of the rotation stuff. He's got great command and movement on his fastball and one of the best change-ups I've seen in a long time. I don't care if his breaking ball is ever better than average if he's got two plus pitches with plus control and command. Really, my only knock on him is durability.
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I don't know if anybody has posted this yet, but here is a great article that just appeared at fangraphs. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-twins-should-take-jose-de-leon-while-they-can/
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Sure, but timing is the most important factor (that a team can control) for maximizing a return is timing. The time is now. The risk he loses value between now and July is greater than the upside of increased potential demand/urgency at the deadline since he's a position player. Demand/Urgency really only gets exaggerated around the deadline for pitchers.
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Correct, they are competing 2017 version Cubs sans Fowler and Chapman, not the 2016 Cubs. People seem to forget that.
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Sorry, I thought you brought him up. My bad. Hochevar was a college arm so it was a really bad example. I also hope they don't pass on Greene just because he's a high school arm either. However, there is inherently more risk with high school arms and I'm not convinced that he is significantly better than the top college arms at this point to go with him 1-1. Obviously, there is a long time between now and June, so that could certainly change. But I think with a college pitcher, you would likely be able to sign him for less than Greene (or any high schooler for that matter) and reallocate that pool money to 1-35 and 2-1. If that's the case, we should be able to snag first round talents in those spots. In other words I think the risk adjusted return in that scenario is higher than Greene at this point, but it may change if Greene improves relatively or the other players back up a bit. One more thing to think about at this point is fitting the timing with the current core. If things go well for Greene, were looking at 4 years before he's up. If he gets injured, then maybe 6 years. 4-6 years from now the current core of Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polanco will be getting expensive or already at free agency. Then we've already missed the opportunity to maximize that window without even mentioning that most players, even top prospects, can take 2-3 years to establish themselves.
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The Dodgers definitely have the leverage at this point. Count me too as someone who is worried the Twins will overplay their hand. Based on our situation, if we don't trade Dozier while his value at his highest it's a failure, and I think the Dodgers know that as well.
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This is also what I'd prefer as well.
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What does that have to do with Hochevar?
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I think Zunino was also rushed quite a bit by the Mariners. But that K/BB ratio is a major red flag for Kendall.
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Exactly- Examples: Kris Bryant in college Fr: 1.67 K/BB So: 0.97 K/BB Jr: 0.67 K/BB Anthony Rendon: Fr: 0.74 So: 0.34 Jr: 0.41 Compared to someone like Mike Zunino who has failed to establish himself: Fr: 4.22 So: 1.63 Jr: 1.52 Kendall has a worse K/BB ratio than Zunino as a sophomore (2.48) with an OPS of .150 lower. Now, there is the caveat that Zunino and Kendall played in the best conference in college ball, unlike Bryant and Rodon, but you'd still like to see a K/BB ratio near 1:1.
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The two most critical tools for major league success. I'm passing on Kendall at this point.
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But the scouts were wrong, so it wasn't. A lot of us don't understand what your point is.
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Um, no thanks.
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Sounds super complicated. But it'd be a blockbuster to end all blockbusters.
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You're underselling Dozier. Even if he regresses from his career year, he's still a very valuable commodity and fills a glaring need for the Dodgers.
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Probably a decent comp. Verdugo might a have better power than Pagan. But far less speed and won't play CF.
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That's the absolute upside. Likelihood he's a slower version of Rosario with slightly better contact ability. Not enough to move the needle for me.
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It's a lot less valuable if he's not in CF, which is likely the case. Eaton also has way more speed than Verdugo.
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That's what I'm thinking too.
