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jharaldson

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Everything posted by jharaldson

  1. jharaldson
    I couldn't find much out there but Mike Trout's dad was a former Twins minor league play so there was a small connection there. Kelly Theiser reported they were looking for pitching in the draft after drafting Hicks, Revere, and Parmalee in the previous drafts. http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090604&content_id=5138988&vkey=news_min&fext=.jsp&c_id=min&partnerId=rss_min In general I can't knock the Twins for the 2009 draft because they did go after Gibson and paid well above slot to sign him so they didn't cheap out. Also, 24 other teams passed on Trout so it wasn't just the Twins failing.
  2. jharaldson
    I agree that anytime he gets a walk he is thrown 4 balls but it is also highly likely that he was thrown a strike as well. Last night he was thrown 2 strikes he opted not swing at. Also, I think there is a miscommunication here. I am not asking Joe Mauer to change his approach to hitting, I am asking him to apply the same approach he does when the bases are empty. Maintain a good batting eye and a walk rate around %11-13 (there will obviously be situations he is pitched around when first is open). When strikes are thrown don't be afraid to swing at them. Here are some more interesting stats: Mauer's K% goes from %12.6 to %13.9 when men are on. Mauer's BB% goes from %11 %17 when men are on. Mauer's Balls in Play% goes from %76.4 to %69.1 when men are on. Mauer's GB% goes from %52.6 to %58 when men are on which makes him more likely to GIDP. I am not sure where all of this leads but I think the old debate of "Mauer's RBI totals suck" vs "Mauer's RISP numbers are awesome" is getting stale and there is probablly a middle ground. Some of it probablly is Gardy's use of sub-standard players in the 2 hole of the lineup but I think some of it is due to the fact that Joe swings the bat less in these situations as evidenced by his reduced ball in play numbers. If Joe keeps his same ball in play percentage that he does with the bases empty and maintains his good AVG/OPS numbers I bet his RBI totals would jump from the 60's to the 70's. PS: Anyone know where I can get "Swings per AB" number with splits? Thanks!
  3. jharaldson
    I don't think you know what "must" means. Fixed it for you. Mauer's differential is so much greater that it seems likely his approach at the plates changes and he becomes more passive. Other than grammer issues do you have any explanation why Mauer is almost %55 more likely to take a walk when men are on base as opposed to when the bases are empty? Especially when given a direct comp that shows different behavior?
  4. jharaldson
    I don't think most people are saying "ineffective", they are more saying why hasn't he been effective as it seems he should be. Here is an counter example to your stats above. BB% With Bases Empty Mauer - %11.0 Willingham - %11.7 Both guys seem to be equally patient as batters when nobody is on. BB% With Men on Base Mauer - %17.0 Willingham - %13.6 When runners get on it appears that Willingham is able accept a few extra walks when he gets pitched around but seems to keep the same approach. Mauer's differential is so much greater that one must assume his approach at the plates changes and he becomes more passive. Or, that pitchers are more careful with Mauer when runners are on in front of him. There's really no stat for what you guys are really searching for... it's going to have to be an extrapolation of some sort. Why would pitchers be more careful around Mauer this year than Willingham? Willingham has an OPS over 60 points higher than Mauer? Wouldn't they garner similar respect and have similar adjustments to their Walk Rate?
  5. jharaldson
    I don't think most people are saying "ineffective", they are more saying why hasn't he been effective as it seems he should be. Here is an counter example to your stats above. BB% With Bases Empty Mauer - %11.0 Willingham - %11.7 Both guys seem to be equally patient as batters when nobody is on. BB% With Men on Base Mauer - %17.0 Willingham - %13.6 When runners get on it appears that Willingham is able accept a few extra walks when he gets pitched around but seems to keep the same approach. Mauer's differential is so much greater that one must assume his approach at the plates changes and he becomes more passive.
  6. jharaldson
    I've noticed that this discussion shows the disconnet between Mauers RBI totals (61) and his AVG/OBP/SLG (.354/.468/.478) with RISP. Since the goal of a batter with RISP is to drive them in I was wondering if anyone knew where I could find the following stats: % of runners on 3rd Driven In % of runners on 2nd Driven In % of runners on 1st Driven In I think it the stats I described above would be a nice intersection between RBI total and RISP performance that would give us a better feel of Joe as a run producer
  7. jharaldson
    Thank you for finally calling out Blackburn on his start this year. We rip on Marquis for his performance and when he was cut Blackburn had an ERA that was identical. We rip on Liriano for his performance this year and he has an ERA almost a point lower than Blackburn. Even if you take his 2009 WHIP he would rank 83/112 pitchers in baseball. He just isn't that good when he is good and he is really bad when he is bad.
  8. jharaldson
    No matter what people think of Terry Ryan you have to admit that he is reasonably skilled at taking a good major league player and trading him away for quality prospects (AJ trade, Knoblauch trade, Milton trade, ect....) I expect that if he does make a trade he will not get fleeced and the players we get will impact the team in coming years.
  9. jharaldson
    For comparison I looked at the first 15 rounds of the White Sox draft that year and they got a combine .7 WAR out of it so we look to have done reasonably well. Anybody know a quicker way of getting this type of data that isn't copying names from a draft list and looking them up in fan graphs one by one? It would be interesting to compare to the rest of the league.
  10. jharaldson
    I am not sure of the best way to judge a draft but we got a combined 18.6 WAR from this draft.
  11. jharaldson
    Good point about the BBCOR bats, I wasn't aware they were required this year and that would hurt his power. I still stand by my point though that 3 HR in a season (1 every 40 AB) is not power when numerous players in the state are hitting homeruns every 10 AB: http://www.maxpreps.com/list/leaderboard_list.aspx?state=GA&sectionid=-Select-&leagueid=-Select-&teamtype=player&leaguetype=overall&category=,batting average&position=-All-&classyear=-All-&ssid=6dc45447-ba5f-4114-8ec2-63428ccb3a68 I still like the pick as well. He looks like he can throw well in the video's I have seen, his speed seems ridiculous, and he has a high average in High School. He just doesn't have the power to be described as a "5-tool" player and that isn't a bad thing.
  12. jharaldson
    I am curious how Buxton's power will develop when he is currently in a metal bat league with smaller fields and crappy pitching and he can only hit 3 home runs. I know it is dangerous comparing Hicks to Buxton but Hicks had more home runs and a higher slugging % in high school than Buxton. I guess at this point I don't buy into Buxton being a 5 tool guy.
  13. jharaldson
    Good points, the opposite field increase isn't a good thing in itself but indicates he is fixing an issue that was preventing him from hitting last year and earlier this year. The odd thing is I was always taught when a RHP is facing a LH that you pull the curve because it is breaking in to you and when a LHP is facing a LH you go opposite because the ball is breaking away from you. Given this increase of curveballs to Justin I and the fact that most pitchers ar RH I would have anticipated an increase in pulled pitches but I assume plate location has something to do with that as well.
  14. jharaldson
    I am always confused when people make hitting to the opposite field such a goal or some sort of lofty ideal. In my mind the goal is to drive the ball. If one player does this by pulling the ball and another does this by driving the ball to the opposite field I don't see a difference. If the inability to pull the ball or hit it the other ways dramatically changes how teams pitch to you or defend you then it is something to be addressed but a double left field is the same as a double to right.
  15. jharaldson
    I think this is a good direction for the team to go but these type of moves cannot just be limited to guys that are already in Gardy's doghouse but need to go beyond that. A specific example is Blackburn. Nick currently has an ERA of around 7.00 and would be the joke of the rotation if Liriano had not imploded to the extent he did. If Blackburn doesn't turn it around in the next few starts the Twins need to push him in to the bullpen as well.
  16. jharaldson
    If I am Scott Baker I leave unless the Twins pick up that option because I do not want my comeback year to be under the supervision of this medical staff. He has already wasted the second half of last year and all of this year on them.
  17. jharaldson
    Joe Mauer had some interesting comments to Shooter: http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_20389452/shooter-now-twins-joe-mauer-didnt-feel-very The frustrating thing is that I don't know how much better of an offseason/spring training he could have had. He shut down early with the flu so he effectively had 4-5 months off with no surgery where he could just get ready for the season. If that isn't sufficient then something is wrong with him.
  18. jharaldson
    Stop using the definition of a "save" as the rule for putting in your closer. There are extremely good offensive teams I would want our closer in when we have a 4-5 run lead and really crappy teams where we don't need to burn them when we have a 2-3 run lead.
  19. jharaldson
    It has been 20 months now since Morneau had his concussion and he has been awful or injured since then. During his comeback last year his best month was a .723 OPS which would be at the bottom of the league for firstbasemen. He showed up to spring training underweight, can't hit for average, and can't hit for power. At this point I am assuming he is done until he proves otherwise.
  20. jharaldson
    The issue is not just the $400,000 that is going out the window but the additional $500,000 we will have to pay one of our in house guys to fill the spot bringing us to almost $1 million. There are a lot of better options on the free agent market for a million that I would have preferred like Chad Qualls or Todd Coffey rather then the 16 pitches from Zumaya and a full season of the Manship at Target Field.
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