Lonestar

That's one thing I like about the Kohl Stewart pick. SI has linked Jameson Taillon's TJ surgery to abuse before being drafted as a high school senior. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20140415/tommy-john-surgery-high-school-pitchers-jameson-taillon/

Who is on your radar for the 46th pick?

According to Baseball America, Rodon's Friday was similar to most of his starts this season. Rodon's fastball sat 90-92 mph, touching 94 four times. " ... he didn’t have command of his fastball,” North Carolina State coach Elliott Avent said. [His slider] was at least a plus offering but lacked the depth and tilt of his offering last week. Rodon struck out seven on the day (21.9 percent) with a 2:1 groundout-flyout ratio in eight innings. http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/friday-roundup-tcu-makes-a-statement/ Not what I would call a solid start for a first tier draft prospect. K/BB = 2.33:1, 7.88 K/9

I would have second thoughts about Rodon at 1-5. He and his advisor have been counting on 1-1 money for 2 years. 1-1 slots at more than twice what 1-5 does

My concern is that you confuse the safety of Wimmers and Gilmartin with the safety of Nola and (my main man) Freeland. Freeland might have some projection left, has two plus fast balls, flashes a 70 slider, and has a curve and change-up that are promising. To that, you add command, control, and pitchability. In fact, it's his pitchability that gives [me] hope for his slider, curve and change-up. And at least one pro scout has comped him to Chris Sale. Sorry, I couldn't help it. Compare that to Kolek. Kolek often hits triple digits. With professional strength training and coaching, he might project to throw even harder. He has shown some feel for other pitches. But he has only faced Texas high school AAA competition and his mechanics remind me of Trevor May's. As some pundit said, you can't coach height or velocity, but there is more to it. I'm not saying you are wrong to dream on Kolek or Rodon or Hoffman. I would like more information on all of these guys. As I'm sure the Twins would.

The Twins have had 40 picks in the first 2 rounds since 2000 and only taken 7 young pitchers. Of course two of those were Berrios and Stewart. Crawford has Blewett as #25 on his own board.

In 2012, the average velocity for his fastball was 92.9 MPH and for his change-up 87.2. In 2014, the average velocity for his fastball is 90.3 MPH and for his change-up 85.5. He could be on the bubble if/when the Twins go back to 12 pitchers.

Define "whiff". Is Phil Humber a whiff? Jeff Niemann? Delmon Young? They are at least disappointments. A 1-5 is a lottery ticket. By my reckoning, 30 out of the 50 top 5 picks from 2001 to 2010 busted or disappointed. That includes five 1-1's.This draft class is not as deep as 2005, yet Jeff Clement drafted at #3 that year busted. If you want to minimize your chances of whiffing, you draft a hitter like Alex Jackson or Zimmer because they are less likely to break. Or a college pitcher like Aaron Nola or Kyle Freeland. Then you run into the whole risk/reward, BPA thing.

Not a mention of Jackson but Simpson talks about 9 pitchers. Obviously not all 9 are candidates 1-1. Jackson got off to a relatively slow start IIRC, but he has fewer warts than Hoffman, Rodon, or even Kolek. He's #2 on my board and could be #2 on Miami's. They are relatively pitching rich and offensively deficient. If Aiken, Kolek, and Rodon go in the first 3 picks in any order, I could see the Cubs popping Jackson. I just think he's going to be gone. You can at least see the concerns I have about Rodon and you get a sense of Freeland's helium.

I'm guessing that the Twins wanted him to focus on catching in the minors and play the OF to give other catchers innings so they didn't have him work at 3B. Could it be time for him to work on it again? That would make him a super utility fielder. Besides his penchant for an 8th reliever and a 3rd catcher, Gardy has a jones for 2 futility IF's (witness Bartlett). If Herrmann can catch AND play 3B, the Twins have addressed two of those.

Didn't Hermann play a lot of 3B at the U (Miami, that is)? How is his 3B defense?

Polanco is a year younger than Rosario was in FSL, for those who put stock in those things when N = 1 (or is it 2).

FWIW http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/college-baseball-week-9-chat-with-aaron-fitt/

I agree we need to learn more. That's why I said he should be on the Twins' board. His velocities are not unlike Rodon's this year. They are considered plus, especially for the two-seamer. To that you add plus movement and plus-plus command. And deception. And two very different fastballs coming out of the same delivery. That's true. But he pitched very well in Cape Cod League where Hoffman gets all of his cred. The difference is that Freeland has carried it over to this year. For years it seemed the Twins were going after the next Radke. But Radke did not have the Freeland's movement or velocity (both plus). He surely didn't have the two-seamer. Nor did he have Freeland's plus slider. Radke did have the plus change-up. Freeland's change and curve are works in progress, but they are progressing. Could Freeland be Radke or Scott Baker without the HR tendencies? I don't mean to suggest that that's his floor, but his floor is higher than Kolek's or Rodon's or Hoffman's, IMO. Could he be the next Clif Lee or a LH Doc Halladay? My point is that there is considerable ceiling there that's not just wishcasting.

I am becoming a Kyle Freeland fanboy. Let us compare him to Carlos Rodon. Rodon has a four-seam fastball with plus velocity. But can you say that Rodon has plus command of his fastball this year? All three ofFreeland’s fastball components (velocity, life and command) are at least plus (orwere in his last two outings). And that is true of his two-seamer as well as the four-seamer. Freeland pitches off his fastball. Rodon pitches off his slider. And his slider is a plus-plus pitch. Freeland’s slider is considered a plus pitch, flashing a grade higher. In general, a front-line MLB starter has to pitch off his fastball. Both have curves and change-ups that are works in progress. Rodon has a impressive body of work over the last two years,but concerns are emerging this year over his velocity, command, and ability tohandle adversity. Freeland faces a weaker college schedule, but he excelled since his breakout in last summer’s Cape Cod League. With his command, control, and 5-pitch mix, Freeland is much more efficient than Rodon. Efficiency isa good thing if he can maintain as he faces more advanced competition. It also means he has had less pitcher abuse. At 6’3” and 234 pounds, Rodon offers no physical projection. At 6’4” and 195, Freeland might have some physical projectability left. And he is certainly more athletic. Freeland has a clean bill of health whereas Rodon has had some back problems. Last, but not least in a race this close, Rodon’s advisor is Scott Boras. Then again, I don’t know who Freeland’s advisor is. Freeland will likely be cheaper.

That's one way of looking at it. I was happy with the Kohl Stewart draft last year. Hopefully I am that happy this year. Remember when Rodon was on a tier by himself. Now he is barely clinging to the first tier IMO. I can (and will) make a case that Kyle Freeland is as good of a bet as Rodon. And he's trending the right way. I would take him over the thrower (Kolek). I would be be very disappointed if Freeland wasn't on the Twins board.

I wouldn't be surprised to see your tier 1 to go in the first 4 picks. I wouldn't put Nola or Toussaint in tier 2 yet. Toussaint is certainly intriguing and might make it but I don't think Crawford or KLaw or McDaniel et al have nominated him for the second tier. Is Beede in your second tier?

You're missing Beede's latest start against Texas A&M 5IP 4K 4BB Unless Beede turns it around, I can see him falling toToronto. Again. They would need his permission to draft him since they draftedhim in 2011. It could be that he falls past Toronto.

I could hardly wait to get back to work so I could write about my main man, Michael Tonkin, being called up to The Show. As I said in the intro, Gardy would love to have the hard-throwing Tonkin on his staff. He can, after all, throw the expletive out of the ball. And with the Twins’ starting pitcher saveraging 5.1 innings per start after 9 starts, Gardy was whining for his beloved 13th pitcher, even Ryan Pressly. The opening came when outfielders Oswaldo Arcia and Josh Willingham were put on the disabled list. The Twins called up Daron Mastroianni (because you really should have two players on the active roster capable of playing center field) and Tonkin –a sad testimony as to the poor position player depth in AAA. When Tonkin was optioned, I was afraid that he would be pigeon-holed as a One Inning Only guy – otherwise known as the modern-day closer. To my relief, he pitched for more than one inning in all three appearances for the Redwings. So what do we expect from Michael Tonkin? The scouting report says he throws a lot of fastballs. This year in the majors, he has thrown 34 pitches including 24 four-seam fastballs at 92.6 mph and 6 two-seamfastballs at 92.38 mph. Tonkin’s slider is supposed to be a difference maker but so far he has thrown only one at 83.2MPH. He has thrown 3 curves averaging 81mph. http://baseballsavant.com/pitchfx Fangraphs appears to be using a different radar reading than Baseball Savant, but according to them, Tonkin’s MLB fastball velocity 92.8mph, down from 94.4 mph. That could be a spring phenomenon or small sample size. It will be something to keep an eye on. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10315&position=P Tonkin’s keys are stuff and command that we can monitor with these ratios: [TABLE=width: 256] 2013 BB% K% K/BB AA 0.074 0.278 3.750 AAA 0.058 0.259 4.500 MLB 0.064 0.213 3.333 Total 0.065 0.259 4.000 [TD=colspan: 4][/TD] 2014 BB% K% K/BB AAA 0.000 0.278 #DIV/0! MLB 0.000 0.250 #DIV/0! Total 0.000 0.269 #DIV/0! [/TABLE] Is Michael Tonkin up in the majors for good? That depends. Willingham and Arcia are coming back – some day. That means two players are going to be removed from the active roster. It makes sense to me that one of those is a pitcher. If a pitcher doesn’t get hurt (and pitchers do break), then who is voted off the island? Burton and Fien have struggled. Tonkin has options left, as do Gibson, Thielbar, and Fien. Gibson is not going anywhere. Fien has seniority. Thielbar has seniority and is the 3rd LHP in the pen. So I’m betting that I will have Michael Tonkin to write about again.

LHP Kyle Freeland has plenty helium. Great control. Solid 4 pitch mix. Or 5, if you differentiate between 4-seam FB and 2-seamer. Keep reading. http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/game-report-evansvilles-kyle-freeland/ http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2014-draft-update-change-at-the-top-as-pitchers-dominate/ Check his latest box score against Wichita State from last night after all of those nice things were written. http://www.gopurpleaces.com/boxscore.aspx?path=baseball&id=5785 But then again KLaw thinks he will be a reliever.

Santana has always been a shortstop. Rosario can't play shortstop. And Sulburban was 5'9" and traded for Drew Butera. Way overvalued by some. Nunez gives the Twins an option of sorts while they prepare Santana.

Michael Harvey Tonkin Position: RP Throws: R DOB: 11/19/1989 Acquired: 2008 draft; 30th round – out of Palmdale HS in Palmdale, CA Signed for $230,000 (4thround slot money) away from commitment to USC Height/Weight: 6’7”, 220 lb. Tonkin was converted from starter to reliever in 2011. He throws a lot of fastballs in the mid-90’s with good movement. He throws a good slider that emerged as a difference maker in 2012. So he has two pitches that are above-average to plus. What differentiates Michaelfrom most hard throwers is his good command. He appears to be a flyball-neutral pitcher at worst, which is a little surprising given his reliance on the four-seam fastball and slider – perhaps a function of his height. He has a high effort delivery but appears durable. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/10/15/4838866/minnesota-twins-top-20-prospects-for-2014 http://www3.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Minnesota+Twins+v+Tampa+Bay+Rays+omoPzeJwoPCs.jpg Tonkin climbed three levels in 2013,from AA to AAA to the MLB making his debut in July when he was called up forThielbar’s paternity leave. He was optioned back to Rochester, then called up in September. In 2013, he had 28 days of MLB service andpitched 11.1 innings in 9 appearances so he is still eligible for Rookie of theYear and still a prospect. Tonkin was optioned before the startof 2014, then called up for the start of the season when Duensing went on paternity leave. In my opinion, he was optioned because he has options. Because he was on the 25-man active roster at the start of the season, Michael fell to me at #54 on the 2014 Adopt-A-Prospect board. Gardenhire would love to have thehard-throwing Tonkin on his staff, but then again he would love to have 13 pitchers on his staff. Tonkin would be much more noticeable in a farm system not as rich as the Twins. So where does he fit in the Twins firmament of prospects. John Sickels ranked him 14th but said he could fit anywhere from 14th to 20th (C+). Gleeman ranked him 12th. Twinkietown ranked him 15th. According to 2014 Minnesota Twins ProspectHandbook, Seth Stohs ranked him 26th, Cody Christie ranked him 20th, and Jeremy Nygaard didn’t rank him in his top 20. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/10/15/4838866/minnesota-twins-top-20-prospects-for-2014 http://aarongleeman.com/tag/michael-tonkin/ http://www.twinkietown.com/2014/1/16/5315604/minnesota-twins-prospect-vote-round-15 http://www.twinkietown.com/2014/1/6/5279280/minnesota-twins-2014-prospect-vote-round-12 I would rank Tonkin 12th. I like his high floor as a 7th or 8th inning set-up man. Actually I hate those roles. I like that he appears to be an old-fashioned shut-down reliever. With his stuff and control, he could be inserted into the middle of a high-leverage situation. I think he could also pitch more than aninning, although Seth (in his handbook) questions Tonkin’s effectiveness when he is used that way. If he can pitch for more than an inning, he will help the Twins limit the pitching staff to 12. Or even 11. It seems you can’t write up Michael Tonkin without mentioning that Jason Kubel is married to his sister. I never put too much stock in that until I discovered that Tonkin got an audition in the Metrodome before Gardenhire and Anderson in June 2008 which reportedly led to his signing. http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/196793121.html

Michael Tonkin rookie-eligible, not on 25-man roster

Who are possibilities like Paul Goldschmidt -- sluggers who won't get drafted in the first two rounds because at the next level they're going to have to hit.

Unless it's his Bugs Bunny change up. The combination of those three pitches could be lethal.