Ted Schwerzler

The Twins are in the midst of a heated race for the final AL Wild Card spot, and while they are running out of games, getting to this point has been a heck of a journey. Having suffered through four straight 90 loss campaigns, being back on the positive side of things is a nice change. Winning isn't new to this franchise however, and the most interesting aspect may be just how the winning takes place.
 
2010 saw the Twins compile a 94-68 record under Ron Gardenhire, good enough for first in the AL Central. Fueled by an incredible 48-26 in the second half, that club rolled into the playoffs with momentum on their side. The record wasn't the only difference though, as Gardenhire's 25 was of a different breed as well.
 
Valued in order by fWAR, the 2010 Twins were led by Joe Mauer (5.0), Justin Morneau (4.9), Jim Thome (3.0), Orlando Hudson (3.0), and Denard Span (2.6). In total, 11 offensive players have fWAR seasons above 1.0. The rotation was filled out by five double-digit game winners in Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, and Kevin Slowey, and Gardenhire had a capable pen.
 
Looking at the construction of the roster as a whole, that team was filled by a handful of veterans performing in or after their prime. Thome brought spark to the Twins while Mauer and Morneau carried the club. Span and Hudson remained assets, and the playoffs were made as an execution of the expectations laid out prior to the season.
 
Fast forward to where we are now. This Twins club currently has 82 wins, with just four games left. By fWAR, the club's top performers are Brian Dozier (3.6), Trevor Plouffe (2.4), Eddie Rosario (2.3), Miguel Sano (2.2), and Aaron Hicks (1.5). On the season, the 2015 Twins have just seven players with fWAR totals over 1.0 (which would add just Eduardo Escobar and Eduardo Nunez to the fold). Among the final rotation, only two pitchers (Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes) have double digit win totals.
 
There's little room for argument that the current Twins squad holds a candle to the one that last made the playoffs. Forget the fact that the playoffs aren't yet a reality, and 90 wins certainly won't be. The talent discrepancy between the two squads is apparent on paper alone. What is also very simple to see however, is what was and is next for both teams.
 
Four years of turmoil came out of the last playoff squad, with the most likely outcome this time around being at least four years of playoff runs. A younger organization filled with high profile prospects trending in the right direction is generally a recipe for good things to come. Comparing directly doesn't do wonders for this team, but there's no doubt it owns the edge in the future trends category.
 
It's easy to see the Twins current team and the one from the last playoff run aren't in the same boat, but there's little doubt this one is going places soon. Knowing how much fun this run has been, and that it's just the tip of the iceberg, it's best to enjoy what was, and be excited about what will be.
 
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Now owners of the first winning season for the Twins franchise since 2010, Paul Molitor and the guys have had a very successful 2015 campaign. There's been rookies introduced, milestones reached, and even a 40 year old man competing at a very high level over the last month of the season. What there has also been, is a pitcher that is generally the butt of all jokes, giving Minnesota exactly what they've needed.
 
For that, thank you Mike Pelfrey.
 
Before the season began, Twins fans no doubt would be thanking Mike Pelfrey that the Pohlad's were only shelling out $5.5 million for his services this season (a very modest amount for a major league starting pitcher). They would be thanking him for this being the end of his three year run with the organization. Thankfulness would be shed on the fact that his departure would open the door for someone else to come take over. However, now with the season coming to an end, Pelfrey should be thanked for all of unexpected contributions he provided this winning ballclub.
 
Full disclosure, calling any contributions at the big league level probably isn't fair. You're being paid millions to go out and compete, your team expects that to happen at a level that puts them in position to win. However, with Pelfrey having ERA's of 5.19 and 7.99 in his past two season respectively, the expectations were no doubt going to be lowered.
 
Initially asked to pitch out of the bullpen prior to Ervin Santana's PED suspension, Pelfrey warmly accepted his assignment the Scott Boras climate was quick to voice his unhappiness. After all, he wasn't going to welcome the chance to leave money on the table heading into free agency (even if I am of the belief he has very good to elite relief potential). Regardless of how it took place however, Pelfrey was going to start, and that is exactly what he has done.
 
Making 29 starts for the Twins (with one remaining as of this writing), Pelfrey compiled a 4.09 ERA, the second best mark of his career. His 3.99 FIP (fielding independent pitching) tally is the third best total over his 10 seasons, and his 0.6 HR/9 leads the big leagues. He gave the Twins 163.0 IP (second on the club behind Kyle Gibson), while walking a career low 2.4 batters per nine innings. He will set a new career best walk total (currently 43) and likely will give up less than 200 hits for just the second time over the course of a full season. In short, Mike Pelfrey has been everything the Twins have needed at the back end of their rotation.
 
Although sometimes seen as a dangerous starter, and notably someone who hasn't gone as deep as would be hoped in games, the narrative goes the other way as well. He has given up two earned runs or less in 17 of his 29 starts, while pitching into the 7th inning or later in 10 starts. Compiling a 2.0 fWAR for Minnesota, he'll post the third best mark of his career.
 
One of the biggest obstacles for Pelfrey as a Twin has been his health. In 2015, he has thrown more than 100 pitches in 10 starts, staying healthy for the first time. The health boost has been noticeable in his ability as well. With an average fastball velocity of 93mph (2nd highest of career and best since 2007), as well as a sinker averaging 93.3 mph (3rd highest of career, best since 2012, Pelfrey's effectiveness has been no doubt boosted.
 
Following the final week of the season, Pelfrey will ride off into the sunset. Most Twins fans will still struggle with the undeniable tie Pelfrey has to injuries and ineffectiveness during his tenure here. However, in a season where the Twins came out of nowhere, it was Pelfrey that held things down every 5th day.
 
Knowing there's prospects on the way to take his place helps to ease the transition. The Jose Berrios and Alex Meyer's of the world are going to raise the floor of what the Twins expect a 5th starter to be. For 2015 though, it was Mike Pelfrey that did the job, and did so at a very respectable level.
 
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Now owners of the first winning season for the Twins franchise since 2010, Paul Molitor and the guys have had a very successful 2015 campaign. There's been rookies introduced, milestones reached, and even a 40 year old man competing at a very high level over the last month of the season. What there has also been, is a pitcher that is generally the butt of all jokes, giving Minnesota exactly what they've needed.
 
For that, thank you Mike Pelfrey.
 
Before the season began, Twins fans no doubt would be thanking Mike Pelfrey that the Pohlad's were only shelling out $5.5 million for his services this season (a very modest amount for a major league starting pitcher). They would be thanking him for this being the end of his three year run with the organization. Thankfulness would be shed on the fact that his departure would open the door for someone else to come take over. However, now with the season coming to an end, Pelfrey should be thanked for all of unexpected contributions he provided this winning ballclub.
 
Full disclosure, calling any contributions at the big league level probably isn't fair. You're being paid millions to go out and compete, your team expects that to happen at a level that puts them in position to win. However, with Pelfrey having ERA's of 5.19 and 7.99 in his past two season respectively, the expectations were no doubt going to be lowered.
 
Initially asked to pitch out of the bullpen prior to Ervin Santana's PED suspension, Pelfrey warmly accepted his assignment the Scott Boras climate was quick to voice his unhappiness. After all, he wasn't going to welcome the chance to leave money on the table heading into free agency (even if I am of the belief he has very good to elite relief potential). Regardless of how it took place however, Pelfrey was going to start, and that is exactly what he has done.
 
Making 29 starts for the Twins (with one remaining as of this writing), Pelfrey compiled a 4.09 ERA, the second best mark of his career. His 3.99 FIP (fielding independent pitching) tally is the third best total over his 10 seasons, and his 0.6 HR/9 leads the big leagues. He gave the Twins 163.0 IP (second on the club behind Kyle Gibson), while walking a career low 2.4 batters per nine innings. He will set a new career best walk total (currently 43) and likely will give up less than 200 hits for just the second time over the course of a full season. In short, Mike Pelfrey has been everything the Twins have needed at the back end of their rotation.
 
Although sometimes seen as a dangerous starter, and notably someone who hasn't gone as deep as would be hoped in games, the narrative goes the other way as well. He has given up two earned runs or less in 17 of his 29 starts, while pitching into the 7th inning or later in 10 starts. Compiling a 2.0 fWAR for Minnesota, he'll post the third best mark of his career.
 
One of the biggest obstacles for Pelfrey as a Twin has been his health. In 2015, he has thrown more than 100 pitches in 10 starts, staying healthy for the first time. The health boost has been noticeable in his ability as well. With an average fastball velocity of 93mph (2nd highest of career and best since 2007), as well as a sinker averaging 93.3 mph (3rd highest of career, best since 2012, Pelfrey's effectiveness has been no doubt boosted.
 
Following the final week of the season, Pelfrey will ride off into the sunset. Most Twins fans will still struggle with the undeniable tie Pelfrey has to injuries and ineffectiveness during his tenure here. However, in a season where the Twins came out of nowhere, it was Pelfrey that held things down every 5th day.
 
Knowing there's prospects on the way to take his place helps to ease the transition. The Jose Berrios and Alex Meyer's of the world are going to raise the floor of what the Twins expect a 5th starter to be. For 2015 though, it was Mike Pelfrey that did the job, and did so at a very respectable level.
 
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For the first time since 2010, the Minnesota Twins are going to finish with a winning record. With just a handful of games left, they find themselves in the thick of a playoff race, and first year manager Paul Molitor has breathed life into a club so desperately needing it. Maybe most importantly though, the Twins have turned pitching woes into a strength at a critical juncture.
 
Needing to keep pace with clubs such as the Houston Astros, Texas Rangers, and Los Angeles Angels, the Twins were going to need to win in all facets of the game. Defense has been significantly improved in 2015, and the offense has been carried the final month by players like Miguel Sano and Torii Hunter. On the mound though, the starting pitching has been a tale of two totally different players.
 
On one hand, Minnesota has seen an ace form out of the very place it was expected. Signing him to a four-year, $55 million deal this offseason, the Twins have been powered by the arm of Ervin Santana. Despite missing the first half due to a PED suspension, it's been the final stretch in which Santana has looked every bit the part of a lights out staff ace. Backing him up is a guy on the complete opposite end of the spectrum. Rookie pitcher Tyler Duffey has taken an opportunity afforded after a second recall, and completely run with it.
 
At this point, both pitchers have thrown their last outings in the month of September. Santana went seven complete innings in four out of his five outings, going eight in the other. He compiled a 4-0 record to the tune of a 1.75 ERA, .211/.279/.297 slash line against, and an 8.5 K/9. Duffey went 3-0 in five starts, owning a 2.35 ERA, .237/.287/.316 slash line against, and an 8.0 K/9. By all respective measures, both pitchers have been near flawless for the Twins at the most important time.
 
With things where they are currently, the Twins path to the postseason is still very much an uphill climb. Should they get there, only one of the two stars is eligible to pitch (with Santana being ineligible for the postseason). However, the production over the season's final month highlights something vastly more important for Molitor, Terry Ryan, and the Twins.
 
Despite what has taken place in 2015, this wasn't the Twins opening of their next window. The winning at a high level was expected to begin in 2016. It could be argued however, that the most unknown commodity going forward was what Minnesota had on the mound. Right now, it looks like both Santana and Duffey have answered those questions.
 
The Twins will no doubt have Santana, Phil Hughes, and Kyle Gibson locked into starting roles for the upcoming season. Duffey's impressive rookie run, and his even more impressive curveball, have forced him into the discussion as well. For a team that should be in an even better place a year from now, having too much talent to juggle is something anyone can get behind.
 
September baseball has been fun in Twins Territory again this year, and while there's plenty of production to highlight, it's been Santana and Duffey that have paved the way. One expected, one out of nowhere, Minnesota has enjoyed watching two players look like shutdown aces for well over the past month, and it's been a very welcomed change.
 
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The Minnesota Twins found themselves drafting with the top 10 once again this season, after a fourth straight 90 loss season in 2014. With an already stacked minor league talent pool, another strong draft was only going to add to it. Having watched 2015 be the success it has been, draft position will change dramatically next season. That said, it's time to take a look back on what has been accomplished.
 
Now that all of the minor league seasons are completed, let's take a look at the Twins top ten picks of the 2015 Major League Baseball draft, and see how their professional career started.
 
Sean Miller Rd 10 (290th overall)
 
Miller was drafted as a college shortstop and assigned initially to the Appy league by the Twins. He lasted all of 11 games there. While he didn't light the league on fire by any means, a promotion was deemed necessary. Miller finished the season playing in 26 games for the Cedar Rapids Kernels, acting as Nick Gordon's double play partner at second base. He slashed .284/.311/.324 across 102 at bats, and helped power Cedar Rapids to a runner up finish in the Midwest League. Look for him to join Gordon at Fort Myers sometime in 2016.
 
LaMonte Wade Rd 9 (260th overall)
 
Like Miller, Wade was a college prospect and was sent to the Appy league. Unlike Miller though, Wade stayed for 64 games. He made a mockery of the level also. Slashing .312/.428/.506 in his first professional experience, Wade was on fire. His nine home runs and five triples suggest that he has the ability to flash both speed and power. Wade was promoted to Cedar Rapids for their playoff run, and started in the outfield under Jake Mauer. He should begin 2016 with the Kernels.
 
Kolton Kendrick Rd 8 (230th overall)
 
One of the Twins "lottery" type picks, Kendrick is a bopper. Known for his big swing and power, he's been heralded as the type you hope puts it together. Coming out of high-school though, he was going to be a long ways away. Kendrick played 24 games at the Rookie level with the Gulf Coast Twins in 2015. He slashed .200/.371/.271. Surprisingly, he went homerless in his first professional season. Kendrick could repeat the GCL or head to E-Town next year.
 
Jovani Moran Rd 7 (200th overall)
 
Just 18, Moran was extremely raw when the Twins took him from Puerto Rico. The lefty was sent to the GCL and started six games. He owned a 4.12 ERA across 19.2 professional innings. His 17 strikeouts to nine walks was a decent ratio, and he held opposing hitters to a .219 average.
 
Chris Paul Rd 6 (170th overall)
 
A college selection from UC Berkeley, Paul grabbed himself his first promotion in his first professional season. Pounding Appalachian League pitching for E-Town, Paul slashed .302/.375/.488 with three homers and 16 runs batted in. He was also given 12 games of work at Cedar Rapids, mainly at DH. Although Paul only slashed .244/.277/.356 for the Kernels, he helped them down the stretch and in the playoffs. He'll probably begin 2016 in Iowa.
 
Alex Robinson Rd 5 (140th overall)
 
Robinson was also selected out of Maryland, a teammate of LaMonte Wade's. He pitched in 10 games, all in the Appalachian League for E-Town. In 12.0 innings, he gave up 13 runs (12 earned) while walking 16 and striking out 15. It was a rough professional debut, but the 21 year old should be expected to progress moving things forward. We could see him in Cedar Rapids in early 2016.
Trey Cabbage Rd 4 (110th overall)
 
Another high school selection, Cabbage will still be 18 when the 2016 season starts. He debuted with the Gulf Coast Twins and got in 33 games before back issues sidelined him for the remainder of the season. Cabbage had an up and down debut, with a final slash line resting at .252/.302/.269. Just two extra base hits in 33 games, Minnesota no doubt would have liked to see more, but it's uncertain what can be attributed to the injury. Cabbage will probably be slow-played to start 2016.
Travis Blankenhorn Rd 3 (80th overall)
 
Already being ranked on some of Baseball America's watch lists, Blankenhorn earned a 2015 promotion as well. He played in 14 GCL games as well as 39 games for E-Town. As a whole, the 19 year-old slashed .244/.321/.347 in his first professional season. He picked up three homers (all at E-Town) along with seven doubles and two triples. Blankenhorn will be a name to watch over the next couple of seasons.
Kyle Cody Rd 2 (competitive balance)
 
The Twins whiffed in selecting Kyle Cody with their competitive balance picked. The Kentucky Wildcat pitcher decided not to sign and instead will return to college. In the upcoming draft, the Twins have been awarded the 74th overall pick by not signing Cody.
Tyler Jay Rd 1 (6th overall)
 
Drafted as a reliever, with the idea he could start, the Twins wanted to rush Jay to the big leagues. That plan was halted when he gave up six earned in his first 6.2 professional innings. From there though, the former Fighting Illini pitcher was lights out. Jay ended the season for the Fort Myers Miracle with 11.2 innings of 2 run ball with 14 strikeouts and a .171/.261/.244 slash line against. He also did not give up an earned run over his last seven outings. With the idea he should be stretched out to start, Jay will probably begin 2016 back at High-A Fort Myers.
 
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The Minnesota Twins weren't supposed to be much of anything this season. Paul Molitor was expected to inherit a team finishing closer to 90 losses than 90 wins. September would be another month highlighted by call-ups and talks of the future. Then the season happened, and none of that took place. Looking at the offseason, it's Terry Ryan's recent decisions that provide the biggest bright spot for what will be an extremely important 2016.
 
In 2014, the Minnesota Twins were taking on water and going nowhere fast. A fourth straight 90 loss season had very few highlights, but one of the greatest was a trade that got very little respect. Twins GM Terry Ryan grabbed Sam Fuld off of the Oakland Athletics scrap heap. Entering the season with little outfield depth, Fuld was a need for Minnesota. Then as the roster shifted later in the season, Fuld became an even bigger asset.
 
With the Athletics poised for a postseason run, Oakland wanted its speedster and defensive asset back in the fold. In return, they sent major league caliber starting pitcher Tommy Milone to the Twins. Milone owns a 4.08 ERA across 21 starts for the Twins in 2015. At times, he's looked like their best starter. His 6.3 K/9 is amongst the best of his career, and being under team control until 2019 makes him a valuable depth piece. For virtually nothing, Ryan had worked a great deal for his club.
 
Then, with the Twins in position to make a playoff run this season, Ryan did it again. This time, Minnesota would be on the market for relief pitching. A bad bullpen needed help down the stretch, but shying away from sacrificing the future needed to remain the goal.
 
Ryan plucked Chih-Wei Hu from High-A Fort Myers and sent him to Tampa Bay for Kevin Jepsen. Hu was having a great season (2.38 ERA across 16 starts in the organization), but he was never regarded as a top prospect. As little more than a lottery ticket, and with pitching depth abundant for the Twins, Ryan cashed in for a strong major league asset.
 
Jepsen joined the Twins with a 2.81 ERA in 46 games for the Rays. Since getting to Minnesota, his 1.96 ERA, 2.88 FIP, and 7.8 K/9 marks have all been even better than what he left. He's also filled in as closer (7 saves) for an injured Glen Perkins. On top of that, Ryan once again got a controllable asset in that Jepsen doesn't hit free agency until 2017.
 
Two seasons, two great trades. Now what's next?
 
As Minnesota embarks on the offseason and begins to prepare for the 2016 season, there should be plenty of roster shuffling. In looking at the landscape of the organization, I was able to come up with just 14 players who should be considered roster locks. That group would include: Kyle Gibson, Phil Hughes, Kevin Jepsen, Trevor May, Glen Perkins, Ervin Santana, Kurt Suzuki, Brian Dozier, Joe Mauer, Trevor Plouffe, Miguel Sano, Eduardo Escobar, Aaron Hicks, and Eddie Rosario. That gives us a starting point.
 
Based on the above grouping, the Twins should have three of their five starters accounted for (Gibson/Hughes/Santana), two relievers (Jepsen/Perkins), second basemen (Dozier), first basemen (Mauer), and third basemen (Plouffe). What that means, is that there's plenty of roster uncertainty left. In a season the Twins should begin to start a chain of consecutive playoff seasons, it will be on Ryan to improve and remove that uncertainty.
 
Thankfully, the Twins have some expendable assets down on the farm. There's maybe not room for Jorge Polanco, Oswaldo Arcia could be on the outs; what happens to Vargas or Santana? How does Max Kepler fit, and are all of the promising relief arms going to make their debuts with the Twins? Each of those questions need answers, but in packaging some of the questions as assets, Ryan could boost the Twins from outside.
 
It's fun knowing that the Twins organization has one of the best farm systems in the league, and it's tough feeling an excitement to seeing those players realize their potential. The fact of the matter though is that not all will, at least here. Minnesota should find themselves relatively active in the trade market over the winter, Ryan absolutely has the pieces to move. Pushing the floor higher by executing more Jepsen type trades (proven/quality major league talent) should be part of the blueprint.
 
It's far too early to speculate who Ryan and the Twins may target, or who they may deal. What isn't too early to tell however, is that when looking at recent trade history, Terry Ryan absolutely knows what he's doing.
 
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After stumbling to a 90 loss season in 2013, the Minnesota Twins found themselves awarded the 5th overall pick in the 2014 Major League Baseball draft. With a couple of different options at their disposal, Terry Ryan and company went with high school shortstop Nick Gordon. With a lineage of great baseball surrounding him, and big league defensive skills showing already, Gordon was going to be a worthwhile project. In 2015 though, he's been the catalyst for what could be a Championship winning Cedar Rapids Kernels team.
 
Gordon spent his first professional season in the Appalachian Rookie League with the Elizabethton Twins. Despite a bat that would need time, he slashed .294/.333/.366 with 11 extra base hits in 57 games. The test though would come in his first full season of pro ball at the Low-A level. Sent to Cedar Rapids to begin 2015 at age 19, Gordon would be pushed early.
 
Through May 31, or the first 45 games of the season, the brother of Miami Marlins Dee Gordon found himself slashing just .230/.305/.281. With a brother pacing the NL in average, the other Gordon was doing anything but. Just five doubles and two triples under his belt, Gordon's speed was kept in check on the bases as well. Then, as spring turned to summer in Iowa, Gordon got going.
 
From June 1 until the end of the Cedar Rapids season, a period of 75 games, Nick Gordon paced the lineup with a .304/.355/.406 slash line. He roped 18 doubles, legged out five triples, and clubbed his first home run of the year. Gordon also scored 48 runs, drove in another 35, and stole 13 bases. The shortstop had now embarked into "offensive threat" territory.
 
Helping to push the Kernels to a 77-63 record on the season, Gordon fueled a playoff destined offense. With Cedar Rapids looking to grab a Midwest League title, it's been Gordon once again in the middle of it all. Prior to a 4-1 loss on Thursday to the West Michigan Whitecaps, Cedar Rapids was a perfect 5-0 in the playoffs. For Gordon, he's slashed .400/.407/.480 with two doubles and three runs across six games.
 
Now just two games away from lifting the end of the season hardware, it will likely be Gordon again that helps to push the Kernels to the finish line. Turning five double plays and making just one error in 55.0 innings, Gordon continues to get it done on both sides of the field. Still just 19, but eyeing the next level, it's season's like 2015 that the Twins envisioned out of Gordon when they took him.
 
For the immediate future, shortstop will be manned by Eduardo Escobar or whatever free agent the Twins choose to bring in over the offseason. Down the line though, Nick Gordon continues to trend in the right direction, and 2015 has been a nice launching pad for the Kernels star.
 
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Thus far, I've been pretty vocal in my belief that it's Miguel Sano who (and not Carlos Correa), that deserves the AL Rookie of the Year award. In a crop of youth that is one of the strongest in recent memory, Sano, Correa, and Francisco Lindor have highlighted the field. The Twins have another rookie though that has been equally as important in 2015, and it isn't Byron Buxton.
 
Way back in March, I suggested that Eddie Rosario would be the first Twins prospect promoted to the big leagues, and that he would have a Danny Santana-like breakout this season. While he hasn't hit out of his mind like Santana did, he has substantiated his performance significantly more than the converted shortstop, and Rosario has been a catalyst for the Twins winning.
 
Drafted out of Puerto Rico in the 4th round of the Major League Baseball draft back in 2010, Rosario debuted for the Twins on May 6. His first game saw him go 1-4 with a run in a 13-0 Twins rout of the Athletics. Fast forward just over 100 games, and the numbers Rosario has put up have been nothing short of remarkable.
 
Handling his own at the big league level, Rosario has slashed .270/.291/.450 for the Twins. A free swinger that strikes out a bit too much while walking a bit too little, the production has showed up in other places. With 17 doubles, 12 triples, ten home runs, and 11 stolen bases, Rosario has been the king of extra bases for the Twins. He's also scored 50 runs and driven in another 42. Offensively, his game will need to evolve towards a better command of the zone, but in his first go round, he's fared extremely well.
 
Defensively, Rosario has been at the center of an outfield that has improved by leaps and bounds over a season ago. He has 15 outfield assists and has compiled 10 DRS (defensive runs saved). His 5.4 UZR (ultimate zone rating) and 7.2 UZR/150 (15.25 UZR/150 when not playing RF) marks are also plenty impressive. Playing in the grass with the likes of Buxton and Aaron Hicks, Rosario has helped to give the Twins what may be the fastest outfield in the big leagues.
 
Considering the depth of the Twins farm system, and the talent loaded at the top of it, Rosario has somewhat flown under the radar this season. He's generally thought of third among the likes of Sano and Buxton, and his prospect status never reached higher than being rated 60th overall prior to 2014 by Baseball Prospectus.
 
For a guy who has been linked to attitude problems, and suffered the setback of a drug suspension, 2015 has been a revelation for Rosario. A successful Arizona Fall League campaign in 2014 (.330/.345/.410 6 XBH 18 RBI in 24 G) seemed to be indicative of what was to come, and that's been exactly the case with how 2015 has played out for Eddie.
 
Going forward, Rosario will need to perfect his game and continue to work at the plate more significantly than that of more toolsy prospects Sano and Buxton. Rosario doesn't seem to have the proverbial cliff that Santana fell off of coming, but it is going to be on him to cut down on ways opponents can exploit his negative tendencies. This season has been much of what should have been expected from the former 4th rounder, but then there's also been much more than what was expected as well.
 
Rosario isn't given the due Sano has been, and he probably doesn't have the fanfare that Buxton carries. A lunch pail guy that has just gone to work, Rosario has quietly got it done, and he's been very good.
 
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On June 14, 2015, the Minnesota Twins embarked on what they hoped would be a monumental day in the history of the franchise. Drafted 2nd overall in the 2012 Major League Baseball draft, Bryon Buxton was finally a member of the Twins active roster. Billed as baseball's best prospect, the expectations were through the roof. Now three months into his career, things haven't gone as expected.
 
Or maybe they have.
 
As of this writing, Buxton has played in 34 games, and slashed a paltry .202/.242/.272. He has one triple, six doubles, and just 23 hits in 114 at bats. He's struck out 39 times while drawing only five free bases. To put it lightly, the offensive output has been less than stellar. What is hasn't been though is unexpected.
 
Buxton tore up the farm system. He's a career .301/.383/.489 hitter across four seasons, and he batted .400/.441/.545 in 13 games at the Triple-A level this season. That's indicative more of what he's capable of than it is what should have been expected. Coming to the big leagues, Buxton was a Gold Glove caliber defender from the onset, but the bat was going to take some time.
 
At this point, Buxton's offensive repertoire is a direct reflection of his speed. He is putting the ball on the ground at a 47.8% rate as well as owning a 21.2 infield hit percentage. On top of needing to adjust to big league pitching, Buxton is doing himself few favors in regards to the strike zone. Swinging at 32.3% of pitches outside of the zone, he's chasing far too often. Reflected in his 69.3% contact rate, Buxton has room to improve when it comes to putting his pitch in play.
 
Aside from the numbers, Buxton has always been expected to hit, in time. Given a 70 grade by MLB.com scouts, he's regarded as close to a sure thing at the plate. In time, the tools should absolutely become reality, and allow the former number one prospect to provide plus value at the plate. For now, that value is evidenced in other aspects.
 
Not going well at the plate, it's integral that Buxton find himself playing (and contributing) in the field often. Thus far, he's done exactly that. Playing 283 defensive innings in centerfield for the Twins, Buxton has already been worth 4 DRS (defensive runs saved). As things stand, Buxton would be on pace for 21 DRS over the course of 162 games. That mark would trail only Kevin Kiermaier's 38 this season for centerfielders in all of baseball.
 
In his first taste with the Twins, Buxton has not only gained extremely valuable experience, but he's given insight of what is, and what will be. Right now, a raw hitter and an incredibly good defender, Buxton is only half of the puzzle. What he should be expected to do, is draw his hitting ability more closer to that he has displayed with his glove.
 
Looking forward, Buxton's floor might be something like a better version of Mike Cameron. A guy that was a career .249/.338/.444 hitter and compiled a 50.7 fWAR across 16 seasons. Both offensively and defensively, Buxton should be superior at his worst. Looking at a doomsday scenario though, the Twins could do much worse.
 
Speculating about the ceiling probably isn't fair. Buxton remains an incredible athlete and should be expected to take significant strides forward in 2016. Reaching his potential, he could find himself being a perennial All Star.
 
Keeping things in perspective, it's best to remember that what Buxton is providing the Twins in 2015 is far less important than what the Twins are providing him. Allowing the floor to be raised, Buxton's future is only a glimmer at this point, but it still remains plenty bright.
 
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This season, the Minnesota Twins have risen well above expectations. More likely to lose 90 games than be a playoff team, Paul Molitor has his squad in a very unexpected position. Getting key contributions from big names like Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano, the Twins offense has been rolling of late. There's another star that has not gotten near the publicity deserved however.
 
Trevor Plouffe.
 
Thought of as a placeholder at third base until Sano forced a position changed for either himself or Plouffe, it has been Trevor who has evolved into a lunch-pail type player. After a breakout season in 2014, Plouffe has followed it up by coming to the field every day and simply getting it done. Putting substantial credibility into his impressive 2014 campaign, Plouffe is on pace for plenty of career highs this season.
 
Through 135 games (which is just one shy of his career high) Plouffe owns a .250/.313/.445 slash line. To this point, the Twins third-basemen has 127 hits, 31 doubles, four triples, 20 home runs, 79 runs batted in, and 44 walks. Per FanGraphs, Plouffe owns a 2.6 fWAR the second highest mark of his career.
 
Looking at detractors, the biggest slide has been Plouffe's defensive prowess. A year after posting a career best 6 DRS (defensive runs saved) at the hot corner, he owns a -2 mark this season. Plouffe's UZR (ultimate zone rating) has also taken a hit falling from 6.7 a year ago to just 2.7 this season. Effectively however, that's where the negatives end.
 
On pace to accumulate new career highs in games played, runs, hits, triples (already accomplished), runs batted in, and potentially walks and home runs, 2015 has been a smashing success. The 29 year-old former first round pick has begun to enter his prime, and the Twins are better for it. With Dozier and Sano slotting in close to him in the lineup, it has been Plouffe that has provided the stability.
 
Going forward, much has been made about the eventual position change that either Plouffe or Sano will need to make. Despite Plouffe having played everything but catcher, pitcher, and centerfield at the major league level, that decision doesn't need to be made yet. Plouffe can spell Joe Mauer when he needs to, and Sano can operate as the team's primary designated hitter. No matter how Molitor chooses to utilize Sano, Plouffe, and Mauer, there's room for each in the foreseeable future.
 
Knowing what Plouffe brings to the Twins, it's probably best for Minnesota to be looking to pay him, rather than to trade him. Currently signed on a one-year $4.8 million deal, arbitration will become expensive in 2016. Not a free agent until 2018, Minnesota could do right by Plouffe and save themselves some money by buying out the next two years of arbitration while grabbing a year of free agency in the process.
 
At 32 years-old in 2018, Plouffe should still be expected to be roughly the same player he currently is. Minnesota has been the beneficiary of a California kid who has gotten it done in a big way the last two seasons. It's now time to make sure he's part of the future as well.
 
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In recent seasons, the Minnesota Twins have not been in the best position to make moves at the trade deadline. A winning club for the first time since 2010, Terry Ryan was awarded a new opportunity this season. With a handful of different upgrade possibilities at his disposal, it was the bullpen piece that he acquired making it two straight slam dunk deals for the Twins.
 
A season after snagging major league quality starter Tommy Milone from the Athletics, Ryan turned his attention to a pitching starved pen. The Twins bullpen had been one of the worst in the big leagues through the first half of 2015, and if the club was even going to sniff a playoff opportunity, finishing games needed to be less stressful.
 
As the deadline drew to a close, Ryan sent lottery ticket prospect Chih-Wei Hu to the the Tampa Bay Rays for veteran Kevin Jepsen. Despite Hu owning a sub 3.00 ERA for the Fort Myers Miracle, he was a fringe prospect that Minnesota turned into a major league commodity. Jepsen came to the Twins under a one-year, $3.03 million deal and a year of team control in 2016.
 
Despite a potentially concerning 4.20 FIP for the Rays, and an ugly first outing for the Twins, Jepsen has been everything Minnesota has needed. Since that first blow-up outing, Jepsen has allowed just a single earned run across 18.1 IP. He's given up just nine hits, and five walks, while striking out 17 in that span. Allowing just a .141/.203/.188 slash line against, his 0.49 ERA is dazzling. To say Jepsen has revitalized the Twins bullpen would be an understatement.
 
Jepsen has also taken aim at some of his own peripherals. The once inflated FIP has settled in at 3.04 with the Twins. He's also hitting the strike zone 64% of the time, compared to 61% while with the Rays. Then there's the added responsibility that the newest Twins reliever has taken on.
 
Despite Glen Perkins being baseball's best closer through the first half of the season, the second half has been a different story. Marred by injury, Minnesota's 9th inning role was up in the air, until Jepsen stepped in. He's picked up seven saves for the Twins (blowing none). Just one run has crossed in those seven innings, and he's fanned nine while giving up just four hits. Not traditionally a closer (just 12 saves in 7 seasons prior to his time with the Twins), Jepsen has looked every bit the part.
 
Maybe somewhat poetically, a closer is absolutely what Minnesota and Terry Ryan were hoping for in Jepsen. With a renewed sense of purpose in 2015, a bullpen unable to hold onto leads and close out games wasn't going to get it done. Targeting a low cost option, with future benefit, Jepsen has proved to be an acquisition that Minnesota can look back and smile upon.
 
Over the course of the season, prolonged strength in relief hasn't been something the Twins could much point to. Aside from Perkins, Trevor May, and times of Blaine Boyer, things have been bleak. When Minnesota needed it most though, they got Kevin Jepsen, and became better for it.
 
Whether the Twins make the playoffs or not, Jepsen has been a diamond in the rough for Molitor and Neil Allen. He's been at the center of Minnesota's September pursuits, and should be expected to continue that trend into 2016 as well.
 
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It was inevitable right? I mean after all, how long could the 57 year-old Gardenhire sit down in Florida puffing on stogies? Eventually, the former Minnesota Twins manager was going to find a new job, and it would be much to the chagrin of Twins Territory. What might have been unexpected is that said new job would come within the AL Central and have Gardy staring into the Twins dugout from the other side.
 
That scenario looks very much like it will come to fruition at this point.
 
It was reported by the Detroit Free Press this morning that Detroit Tigers skipper Brad Ausmus was managing his final few games. Compiling a 143-127 record across just under two seasons, Ausmus has drawn the ire of Tigers owner Mike Illitch. The Little Caesar's entrepreneurial mogul has decided that former team President Dave Dombrowski isn't the only one needing to go in 2015. Ausmus is set to be relieved of his duties following the season.
 
With the managerial opening for the Tigers being announced this morning, information has been relatively fluid. One of the first names brought up as a potential successor was Gardenhire's. Then reports began to surface that the former Twins skipper was not only the front-runner, but likely the already decided upon choice.
 
Gardenhire took the 2015 season off after being replaced by Paul Molitor following the end of a fourth straight 90 loss season in 2014. Despite showing up at Twins spring training this season, Gardenhire has laid low and flown under the radar. Linked to the Miami Marlins job following the firing of Mike Redmond, Gardenhire stayed put. Now with the American League opening presented to him, and in the Central division nonetheless, it may be time to return to the dugout.
 
There was never any doubt that Gardenhire would once again manage, but a National League team always seemed to be an odd connection. The Marlins job was never one coveted by many (the franchise is notably poorly run), and Gardenhire may be in over his head. Managing for 13 years in the American League, a guy not known as an innovator would have to adjust to a completely different game in the NL.
 
Should he become the Tigers eventual choice, the fit would seem to make a lot of sense. Gardenhire has compiled a 1068-1039 record across 13 years in the AL Central. Of the major league franchises, the Tigers would be one of the few Gardenhire would find himself relatively familiar with. Detroit also is not far from his roots established in Minnesota and would provide another layer of comfort when getting back into the business.
 
The biggest question may be in regards to what Illitch and the Tigers believe they are getting in the longtime Twins manager. Ausmus is no doubt being fired for failed expectations. Given premium pieces to make World Series runs, he is 0-3 in his lone postseason appearance, and will miss them in 2015. While given a less than impressive bullpen a season ago, Ausmus no doubt did less with more. What's curious, is that the same could be said about Ron Gardenhire.
 
Despite a 2010 Manager of the Year award, and six AL Central Division titles (compared to just four for the Tigers in his tenure), Gardenhire's playoff ability has plenty of unanswered questions. The Twins advanced to the ALCS just once under Gardenhire (losing 4-1 to the Angels), and were swept three times in the ALDS (twice by the Yankees, and once by the Athletics). As a whole, Gardenhire's playoff record stands at just 6-21 (good enough for a .222 win percentage). Added up, it would appear the Tigers may be fixing a question with somewhat of another one.
 
Manager's are somewhat of a fickle beast, and we've seen that this season more than ever. Matt Williams, the Washington Nationals manager with just 2014 as his previous experience, has fallen flat on his face. Williams took a star-studded team and effectively ended their playoff hopes with his own inability. Then there's Dan Jennings (who took over in Miami for Redmond), coming in having never managed or played at any level, who's compiled a 39-57 record (or virtually the same as his predecessor in Redmond). What we have learned over the course of 2015 is that often, major league franchises perception of managers becomes reality.
 
If Illitch and the Tigers do intend on hiring Ron Gardenhire to take over in 2016, it will be because their perception trumps documented reality. Gardenhire is a very good manager, but he's had many of the same shortcomings (albeit in a larger dose) than Ausmus. Detroit has changed their culture to be deep playoff runs or bust, and Gardenhire could get them there, but he also couldn't. If the Tigers don't address their lackluster farm, poor relief help, and spending habits, it won't matter who's in the dugout.
 
Ron Gardenhire deserves another chance at managing. It's going to be odd for Twins fans to see it come in Detroit. He could succeed there, but it may not have much to do with his own accord.
 
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So here we are, the 2015 Major League Baseball season is quickly rumbling to a finish, and the Minnesota Twins have made it a relevant year. In the playoff hunt, and playing meaningful September baseball, the Twins are in a good place. With the performance though, there are no doubt players that have taken steps forward. The question is, does Kyle Gibson qualify among them?
 
Coming into the season, Gibson was a pitcher I expected a lot out of. A former first round pick and top Twins pitching prospect, Gibson needed to push the envelope. Now 27 years old, his experience was teetering into veteran territory, and there's no doubt that Minnesota was hoping the results would follow. With new pitching coach Neil Allen getting to work with him for the first time, Gibson had plenty of opportunity in front of him.
 
The lone full season in his career at the big league level, 2014, Gibson owned a 4.47 ERA in 31 starts for a bad Twins team. He pitched 179.1 innings, struck out 107, walked 57, gave up 12 home runs, and owned a 1.310 WHIP. For all intents and purposes, the numbers were mediocre across the board. On a team with bad starters, Gibson was an ok-at-best back-end option. With a retooled 2015 rotation, the Twins were hoping Gibson could push towards possessing the middle-to-top type stuff he once was billed as.
 
In 2015 (as of this writing), Gibson owns a 3.87 ERA. He's started 28 games and has pitched 172.0 innings. The former Missouri Tiger has struck out 119 batters and walked 57, while allowing a career high 16 home runs. All told, he's compiled a 1.291 WHIP in 2015. On the surface, it's somewhat difficult to suggest what context that gives the year-by-year improvement Gibson has seen. Taking a closer look starts to open things up however.
 
First, the start Gibson has was simply brilliant. From April 15 through May 30, Gibson was one of the best in the big leagues. A span of nine starts saw him throw to the tune of a 1.85 ERA and just a .237/.302/.363 slash line against. An rough stretch in the middle of the year inflated things, but then has once again been evened out by a strong finish. In four starts since August 22, Gibson owns a 3.20 ERA and has allowed opposing hitters to slash just .228/.291/.315 off of him.
 
Continuing with a beginning and end trend, Gibson actually has fared the opposite over the course of games themselves. In 2015, the first inning has been one of his worst. Allowing 17 first inning runs and 34 hits, Gibson has been hit around to a 5.46 ERA in getting the first three outs of a game. As contests go on as well, his finish has been difficult. Reaching the sixth inning in 24 of his 28 starts (and advancing beyond just 11 times), the righty owns a 6.52 ERA.
 
What he has done well though is bounce back. In the second inning, and high leverage situations, Gibson has been at his best. In the second, Gibson owns a 2.25 ERA, and has allowed just eight runs. After pitching to less than advantageous situations, he's allowed opposing hitters to bat just .219/.319/.281 (his lowest slash line allowed across three possible situations).
 
Quite possibly the biggest improvement Gibson has seen in 2015 is being great when good, and well, less bad when bad. To be fair, every pitcher has better numbers when generating a win than a loss, but Gibson has bee drastically more impressive. In 2014, the Twins starter owned a 1.42 ERA, 1.045 WHIP, and 5.7 K/9 in wins. He was hit around to the tune of an 11.04 ERA, 1.962 WHIP, and just a 4.6 K/9 in losses. 2015 has been a different story. This season, it's a dazzling 0.87 ERA, 0.952 WHIP, and 6.2 K/9 in wins, with a better 7.38 ERA, 1.752 WHIP, and 6.0 K/9 in losses. Capitalizing on success, and limiting the damage, it's been a complete improvement for the former top prospect.
 
Having taken a deeper diver into the good, it seems that Gibson is, if nothing else, targeted in his excellence. Needing to settle in and focus, he's at his best. Being stretched out and coming into a game, he can be taken advantage of. It's not all positive however.
 
Arguably the most concerning numbers Kyle Gibson has produced in 2015 fall into the peripheral statistics category. Looking at FIP (fielding independent pitching) and BB/9, there's some cause for concern. Gibson owns a 4.07 FIP last year (compared to a 3.80 FIP in 2014) and a 3.0 BB/9 (up just 0.1 over 2014). There's some explanation for the former, but maybe not for the latter.
 
A season ago, the Twins were historically bad defensively, especially in the outfield. For a guy who utilizes the ground ball, pitches shouldn't get to the outfield. Owning a 54.4% ground ball rate in 2014, the 52.7% mark this season is a step backwards. His increased line drive percentage (19.0% in 2014, 20.2% in 2015) also doesn't help things. While the outfield defense is markedly better now, Gibson is also making it work harder behind him.
 
Although Gibson isn't walking a a much higher rate of batters, the fact that it hasn't decreased is less than ideal. Improvement in the strikeout category is a nice plus, but for a guy fanning only six per nine on average, three walks per nine is hefty. Gibson has utilized his changeup the most in his career in 2015 (19.5%), likely in large part to Allen's instruction. The increased pitch usage could be helping the strikeouts, while making the zone a bit more difficult to maintain. Right now, Gibson's walk rate isn't a problem, but toeing right in the middle of the line, you'd rather not see it become one either.
 
So, here we are, some ups and some downs, but that's probably what you're going to get with Gibson. I'm not sure he ever looked the part of a one or two pitcher, but at this point it's fair to pencil him in as a solid number three. If the Twins make the playoffs, he can be trusted on the mound to keep you in the game, and really, that's about all you should be asking for. He's taken steps forward this season, and in an improved rotation, he's a big part of it.
 
Kyle Gibson probably isn't ever going to be the guy, but he's proven he's far more than just a guy too.
 
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The 2015 Major League Baseball season wasn't supposed to go the way it has for the Minnesota Twins for many different reasons. Most notable, is the fact that Paul Molitor's club is in playoff position a year before they were expected to be. Surprisingly, there are a few expected contributors that are missing from the fold however. Maybe most glaringly of the bunch are two relievers, Nick Burdi and Jake Reed.
 
Minnesota selected both Burdi and Reed with 2014 draft picks. Burdi was taken in the 2nd round out of the University of Louisville, while Reed went to the Twins in the 5th out of Oregon. Both players put together solid debut seasons, and Reed then went on to impress during the Arizona Fall League. With a good amount of momentum rolling behind them, both players looked like a 2015 MLB splash could be in the cards.
Until it wasn't.
 
Burdi's first outing of the season for Double-A Chattanooga was of the four run blowup variety, grabbing just two outs. By June 25, he owned a 5.93 ERA and was allowing opposing hitters a .775 OPS off of him. For Reed, things weren't much prettier. Three outings in, he allowed his first run. It snowballed to a 5.56 ERA and a .281/.366/.388 slash line by Aug 6th. Both players were then met with even more adversity.
 
The Lookouts ultimately gave Burdi the hook first, with him being demoted at the end of June. Reed would stay with the Double-A club until early August, before assuming the same fate. Now being sent down to High-A Fort Myers, a level both seemed above, confidence needed to be regained.
 
Pitching in his first game of 2015 for Fort Myers on July 2nd, Burdi registered four strikeouts in two innings pitched. After 13 games a level below, he had compiled a 2.25 ERA, a 13.05 K/9, and baffled opposing hitters to the tune of a .179/.208/.239 ERA. Since, he has been promoted back to Double-A Chattanooga, and owns a 1.74 ERA in 10.1 innings.
 
Still down at Fort Myers, Reed has found himself as well. Having skipped over the level a season ago, Reed was getting his first taste of the Florida State League. Now with 11.1 innings under his belt, the former Duck looks every bit as dominating as he was once billed. A 0.00 ERA with a 7/1 K/BB ratio, Reed is overpowering hitters allowing just a .211/.225/.211 slash line.
 
Now with the season set to wrap up, the next hurdle has appeared for the two flamethrowers. Both have been assigned to take part in the Arizona Fall League as representatives for the Twins. Playing for the Scottsdale Scorpions, Reed will be repeating the league after an impressive 2014 showing (0.71 ERA in 12.2 IP). Burdi will be making his first appearance.
 
As Reed did last year, both pitchers can use the next challenge as a new opportunity. Despite being something they both likely believed they were past, a strong Fall League showing, could have heightened 2016 implications. With a Twins bullpen that will no doubt undergo a significant amount of turnover, candidates will need to emerge.
 
Both Jake Reed and Nick Burdi continue to profile as key cogs in the Twins bullpen for years to come. Possessing high velocity arms, and strikeout stuff that has not been synonymous with the Twins for quite some time (or ever), the excitement level is there. Although 2015 didn't turn out to be what was once expected, a refresh button has appeared.
 
Having had the opportunity to interview both Reed and Burdi in the past, betting against them a second time around doesn't seem like a good practice. These are two names you may want to get familiar with. With the Arizona Fall League as their proving ground, the next step could be within reach.
 
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Just a few weeks ago, the Twins 2015 postseason hopes looked all but lost. In a season in which expectations had already been so vastly exceeded, it appeared that once again, September would be nothing more than a proving ground for 2016. Now on the back of another nice run, Paul Molitor's squad enters September with something to play for. With a perfect storm approaching, Minnesota has the chance to sink or swim.
 
Heading into the final full month of the season, Minnesota finds themselves looking up at only the Texas Rangers. With both the Yankees and Blue Jays holding down either the AL East or top Wild Card spot, it will be Texas that Minnesota will chase. Separated a few games ahead of the Los Angeles Angels, Minnesota can worry about themselves.
 
Looking at the final month of the season, the Twins play plenty of familiar foes. Following the first weekend in September, the Twins will play only AL Central teams the rest of the way (outside of a four game homestand against the Angels). In those 22 games, only six of them come against the division leading Kansas City Royals. For further context, that means the Twins will play 16 games against sub .500 teams the rest of the way.
 
Minnesota has played the AL East the toughest this season (going 19-14), while nearly splitting with divisional foes (26-25). Despite holding down the second spot in the division, the Twins will face plenty of tough pitching matchups the rest of the way. Kluber, Sale, and what might be an improved Verlander looming, earning a playoff berth will be a must.
However, the Twins also have a few trump cards at their disposal this September. Instead of looking to give playing time to those who have paid their due, Molitor and Terry Ryan stand to benefit their big league club by calling up true talent. It's safe to say players such as Kennys Vargas, Jose Berrios, and even Max Kepler have earned their way onto the big league roster. Knowing that each of them could equate to key wins helps that fact to carry even more weight.
 
Despite being a year ahead of schedule, the Twins have parlayed getting hot again at the right time, with the ability to bolster their roster for the home stretch. Knowing what teams lie ahead, and their level of talent, Minnesota has tipped the scales in their favor. Whether or not they make it to the playoffs remains unseen, but Paul Molitor has everything point the right direction at the most opportune time.
 
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Just a few weeks ago, the Twins 2015 postseason hopes looked all but lost. In a season in which expectations had already been so vastly exceeded, it appeared that once again, September would be nothing more than a proving ground for 2016. Now on the back of another nice run, Paul Molitor's squad enters September with something to play for. With a perfect storm approaching, Minnesota has the chance to sink or swim.
 
Heading into the final full month of the season, Minnesota finds themselves looking up at only the Texas Rangers. With both the Yankees and Blue Jays holding down either the AL East or top Wild Card spot, it will be Texas that Minnesota will chase. Separated a few games ahead of the Los Angeles Angels, Minnesota can worry about themselves.
 
Looking at the final month of the season, the Twins play plenty of familiar foes. Following the first weekend in September, the Twins will play only AL Central teams the rest of the way (outside of a four game homestand against the Angels). In those 22 games, only six of them come against the division leading Kansas City Royals. For further context, that means the Twins will play 16 games against sub .500 teams the rest of the way.
 
Minnesota has played the AL East the toughest this season (going 19-14), while nearly splitting with divisional foes (26-25). Despite holding down the second spot in the division, the Twins will face plenty of tough pitching matchups the rest of the way. Kluber, Sale, and what might be an improved Verlander looming, earning a playoff berth will be a must.
However, the Twins also have a few trump cards at their disposal this September. Instead of looking to give playing time to those who have paid their due, Molitor and Terry Ryan stand to benefit their big league club by calling up true talent. It's safe to say players such as Kennys Vargas, Jose Berrios, and even Max Kepler have earned their way onto the big league roster. Knowing that each of them could equate to key wins helps that fact to carry even more weight.
 
Despite being a year ahead of schedule, the Twins have parlayed getting hot again at the right time, with the ability to bolster their roster for the home stretch. Knowing what teams lie ahead, and their level of talent, Minnesota has tipped the scales in their favor. Whether or not they make it to the playoffs remains unseen, but Paul Molitor has everything point the right direction at the most opportune time.
 
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August comes to a close, the Twins have rebounded from a lackluster middle of the summer, and an AL Wild Card spot is once again in the cards. Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton have paced the offense, and Paul Molitor's club is rolling. Heading into September, there's one more weapon the Twins have at their disposal however: La Maquina.
 
Spanish for "The Machine," La Maquina describes and defines Jose Berrios in a way no other phrase can. The Puerto Rican superstar has put together another amazing season in the Twins farm system, and Terry Ryan is running out of reasons not to deploy him. With Berrios laying waste to opposing hitters, he very well could be the final missing piece to helping the Twins capitalize on their good fortune this season.
 
A year ago, Berrios blitzed the Twins system. Generally regarded for slow-playing even the best prospects. Berrios pitched at three different levels in 2014. Making 16 starts for Fort Myers, followed by eight for New Britain, and finally a spot start for Triple-A Rochester, it appeared Berrios had arrived. Unfortunately, not everyone saw it that way.
 
Keith Law had Berrios in the 90's when it came to his top prospect list. The Twins invited him as a non-roster guy to Spring Training, but he was shipped out rather quickly. All of it has fueled Berrios' fire. In 2015, he's done everything possible to substantiate his impressive 2014. With a 3.08 ERA in 15 Double-A starts, he's actually been even better at Triple-A Rochester.
 
For the Red Wings, Berrios owns a 2.78 ERA across 10 starts and 64.2 innings. He's compiled a career high 155.1 IP and owns a 10.2 K/9 at the highest level of the farm. Since giving up four and five earned runs respectively in his first two Triple-A starts, Berrios has put together a run of 54.0 IP allowing just 38 hits, 12 runs (11 earned), walking nine, striking out 61, all to the tune of a 1.83 ERA. Opposing batters are slashing just .197/.252/.316 off of him, and it all adds up to Berrios being nothing short of dominant.
 
Since being under the microscope in August, Berrios has taken his game to yet another level. With a September call-up being a possibility, the Twins best pitching prospect has reeled off performances of 12, 10, eight, and nine strikeouts in his last four outings respectively. To put icing on the cake, it was the 12 strikeout, three hit performance on August 26th that general manager Terry Ryan was in the stands for.
 
Keeping Berrios at the Triple-A level is no doubt the business side of baseball. Not yet on the 40 man roster, the Twins would need to do some finagling to get him up to the big leagues. More than that however, his service time would begin, and Minnesota would lose out on an extra year of team control. Down the line, that no doubt could cost a team generally looking to maximize their spending.
 
On the flip side, the Twins absolutely had no business being in the spot they currently find themselves in. Beginning to compete a year ahead of schedule, and doing so with top prospects in tow, Molitor's boys have presented an intriguing situation. With a month left of games to go, it's Berrios that undoubtedly could provide the final boost to put the Twins over the top.
 
If the top prospect ends up being the pitcher the Twins expect him to be, he's going to need to get paid down the line. Minnesota will need to cough up the cash earlier than expected if his promotion happens, but maximizing winning potential when it's there may make sense. A worst case scenario may look like a Berrios promotion only to miss the playoffs, but that experience could prove vital in a more important 2016 season anyways.
 
How the Twins value future cash flow and contract status will likely be the determining factor, but considering how this club has performed against the odds thus far, Berrios would be a welcomed final piece. Terry Ryan dipped his toes in the water when he traded for Kevin Jepsen and Neal Cotts, but now it's time to dive in. Unleash La Maquina.
 
More: From Puerto Rico To The Pros: The Jose Berrios Story
 
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Major League Baseball is quickly pushing towards September 1st; a day in which big league rosters are allowed to expand from 25 to 40 players. For many teams, this involves some roster reconfiguration. The Minnesota Twins are not an exception, and will need to re-evaluate who they view worthy of holding down an ever important spot.
 
For the Twins, this season represents something a bit different, as they are in the midst of a playoff race. While they are likely going to be on the outside looking in, maximizing roster potential in September is a must. Terry Ryan and crew will need to make some difficult decisions in the coming week however. Let's take a look at some of the candidates on the chopping block.
 
Pitchers:
 
A.J. Achter-RHP
 
Achter was a 46th round pick by the Twins in 2010. He has appeared in just 13 big league games, and has pitched 18.1 innings to the tune of a 4.91 ERA. Much better in the minors, Achter owns a 2.90 ERA in 366.1 IP. This seasons for Triple-A Rochester, Achter has compiled a 2.74 ERA in 46.0 innings. At this point, Achter has done everything asked of him, but his stuff profiles more like an AAAA type. He may pass through waivers unclaimed, but he's probably not the type to right your bullpen.
 
Logan Darnell-LHP
 
The Twins haven't called upon Darnell in 2015 after he pitched 24 big league innings with a 7.13 ERA last season. He's had a solid 2015 for Triple-A Rochester, and he recently took a perfect game into the 6th inning in his last start (he's being stretched out of late). His 3.05 ERA and 7.6 K/9 are some of the best marks of his MiLB career. Darnell is either going to be given a shot to prove it, or needs to cede way to someone else though.
 
Brian Duensing-LHP
 
Including Duensing on this list is less about September than it is about this offseason. Minnesota took Duensing to arbitration over the winter and settled on a one-year, $2.7 million deal. They would be best served to cut ties after 2015. The longtime Twin has been better of late, but his 4.25 FIP (fielding independent pitching) is in line with his 4.01 career mark, and his 4.5 K/9 is ugly out of the pen. There are better options out there (and on the farm), who are also much cheaper.
 
Casey Fien-RHP
 
This is somewhat or a mixed-emotions add for me. My trust in Fien as a late inning reliever has waned in recent seasons, but he has also remained relatively consistent. Fien is arbitration eligible in 2016, and remains under team control until 2019. On that alone, I'm not sure I'm sold on removing him. However, his declining strikeout rates (10.6 K/9 in 2013, 7.2 in 14, and 5.2 in 15) are a problem, and his FIP has steadily increased each of the past three years (3.16 in 13, 3.43 in 14, 3.62 in 15). If there's a better option, I wouldn't be opposed to exploring it.
 
Ryan O'Rourke-LHP
 
Back in 2010, the Twins selected O'Rourke out of a small town college in Massachusetts. He's now 27, and made his big league debut this season. Despite being a LOOGY (lefty one out guy), he's been hit around to an ERA north of 5.00 for the Twins. His career 4.15 MiLB ERA isn't inspiring either. O'Rourke is allowing lefties to hit just .156/.250/.250 while striking out 16 in 32 at bats. He's walked one-fourth of the righties he's faced though, and isn't a real answer to a shaky pen.
 
Aaron Thompson-LHP
 
Thompson was an early season surpise for the Twins. The former first round pick owned a 2.11 ERA and a .181/.235/.278 slash line against in his first 21.1 IP. Then the wheels fell off. Over his final 24 games for the Twins, Thompson pitched to the tune of a 10.64 ERA and allowed opposing hitters to slash .388/.444/.490 off of him. Since being demoted back to Triple-A Rochester, Thompson owns a 4.76 ERA and has just a 7/4 K/BB ratio in 11.1 IP. It's probably best for the Twins to move on from the reclamation project whether he's claimed or not.
 
Jason Wheeler-LHP
 
A former 8th round pick in 2011, Wheeler has had quite an eventful 2015. He's been demoted to Double-A Chattanooga twice, while being promoted to Triple-A Rochester once after starting the season there. In total, he owns a 5.73 ERA and a measly 5.7 K/9. His Double-A numbers are better (4.34 ERA 7.6 K/9), but still show little reason to be hopeful. With pitching as an asset throughout the farm, the 40 man roster spot could go to better use.
 
Position Players:
 
Chris Herrmann-C
 
Much like Duensing, Herrmann isn't an immediate DFA option for the Twins. He's on the 25 man roster as the backup catcher, and with Josmil Pinto (who's not catching) as the only other 40 man option, this isn't happening now. Regardless, Herrmann isn't a big leaguer, and the Twins have some serious issues behind the dish. Over the winter, addressing their backstop situation is a must. Herrmann is slashing .159/.225/.305, which is bad (and even worse by the standards of a guy with a career .187/.254/.289 slash line). Minnesota needs some catching depth, and Herrmann doesn't qualify as that.
 
Eduardo Nunez-Util
 
Smoke and mirrors was what Eduardo Nunez put up for a good portion of 2015. Now the owner of a .268 average, Nunez owned a .302/.333/.508 slash line up until the All Star Break. The catch was that he played in just 22 games and had just 66 plate appearances. He's been worth 0.6 fWAR on the season, which is at least a positive. Nunez however was someone I thought could have been DFA'd prior to the 2015 season starting. Better utility options are generally out there, and as an arbitration guy this upcoming season, he's not going to be worth the expense.
 
Shane Robinson-OF
 
If anyone assumed their role better than Shane Robinson in 2015, I'm not aware of it. Brought in to be a 4th outfielder, he was exactly that. It was Jordan Schafer that was kept out of spring training at the detriment of Aaron Hicks, not Robinson. In his first season away from the Cardinals, Robinson has slashed .255/.306/.331. His five steals tie a career high, and his 0.5 fWAR is on pace to be a career best. His defense was a boost to a Twins outfield in flux, and he gave the club everything asked of him. Now with the outfield in a more stable situation, Robinson can be thanked for his contributions and be made expendable.
 
Oswaldo Arcia-OF
 
Easily the highest profile name on this list, Arcia puts the Twins in a tough spot. He has played just 19 games in the big leagues this season, and is not deserving of a September callup. Despite a career best .276/.338/.379 slash line at the MLB level, he compiled 15 strikeouts and just four walks. Despite being a power guy (34 HR the last two seasons), he swings and misses far too often. At Triple-A Rochester, Arcia owns a .206/.265/.385 slash line with 11 home runs 75 strikeouts and just 17 walks. He has hit just .108/.202/.176 since July 21, and his attitude combined with effort have been in question most of his career. Out of options going forward, Minnesota dealing him this offseason seems like a good avenue to explore.
 
With a farm system ready to overflow with prospects, and some worthy September call ups not being on the 40 man roster, Minnesota will need to begin some turnover. Abover are a few of the names to keep eyes on. As the Twins look to get back into a yearly playoff picture, Minnesota will need to fill the 40 man with more quality than quantity types.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Major League Baseball is quickly pushing towards September 1st; a day in which big league rosters are allowed to expand from 25 to 40 players. For many teams, this involves some roster reconfiguration. The Minnesota Twins are not an exception, and will need to re-evaluate who they view worthy of holding down an ever important spot.
 
For the Twins, this season represents something a bit different, as they are in the midst of a playoff race. While they are likely going to be on the outside looking in, maximizing roster potential in September is a must. Terry Ryan and crew will need to make some difficult decisions in the coming week however. Let's take a look at some of the candidates on the chopping block.
 
Pitchers:
 
A.J. Achter-RHP
 
Achter was a 46th round pick by the Twins in 2010. He has appeared in just 13 big league games, and has pitched 18.1 innings to the tune of a 4.91 ERA. Much better in the minors, Achter owns a 2.90 ERA in 366.1 IP. This seasons for Triple-A Rochester, Achter has compiled a 2.74 ERA in 46.0 innings. At this point, Achter has done everything asked of him, but his stuff profiles more like an AAAA type. He may pass through waivers unclaimed, but he's probably not the type to right your bullpen.
 
Logan Darnell-LHP
 
The Twins haven't called upon Darnell in 2015 after he pitched 24 big league innings with a 7.13 ERA last season. He's had a solid 2015 for Triple-A Rochester, and he recently took a perfect game into the 6th inning in his last start (he's being stretched out of late). His 3.05 ERA and 7.6 K/9 are some of the best marks of his MiLB career. Darnell is either going to be given a shot to prove it, or needs to cede way to someone else though.
 
Brian Duensing-LHP
 
Including Duensing on this list is less about September than it is about this offseason. Minnesota took Duensing to arbitration over the winter and settled on a one-year, $2.7 million deal. They would be best served to cut ties after 2015. The longtime Twin has been better of late, but his 4.25 FIP (fielding independent pitching) is in line with his 4.01 career mark, and his 4.5 K/9 is ugly out of the pen. There are better options out there (and on the farm), who are also much cheaper.
 
Casey Fien-RHP
 
This is somewhat or a mixed-emotions add for me. My trust in Fien as a late inning reliever has waned in recent seasons, but he has also remained relatively consistent. Fien is arbitration eligible in 2016, and remains under team control until 2019. On that alone, I'm not sure I'm sold on removing him. However, his declining strikeout rates (10.6 K/9 in 2013, 7.2 in 14, and 5.2 in 15) are a problem, and his FIP has steadily increased each of the past three years (3.16 in 13, 3.43 in 14, 3.62 in 15). If there's a better option, I wouldn't be opposed to exploring it.
 
Ryan O'Rourke-LHP
 
Back in 2010, the Twins selected O'Rourke out of a small town college in Massachusetts. He's now 27, and made his big league debut this season. Despite being a LOOGY (lefty one out guy), he's been hit around to an ERA north of 5.00 for the Twins. His career 4.15 MiLB ERA isn't inspiring either. O'Rourke is allowing lefties to hit just .156/.250/.250 while striking out 16 in 32 at bats. He's walked one-fourth of the righties he's faced though, and isn't a real answer to a shaky pen.
 
Aaron Thompson-LHP
 
Thompson was an early season surpise for the Twins. The former first round pick owned a 2.11 ERA and a .181/.235/.278 slash line against in his first 21.1 IP. Then the wheels fell off. Over his final 24 games for the Twins, Thompson pitched to the tune of a 10.64 ERA and allowed opposing hitters to slash .388/.444/.490 off of him. Since being demoted back to Triple-A Rochester, Thompson owns a 4.76 ERA and has just a 7/4 K/BB ratio in 11.1 IP. It's probably best for the Twins to move on from the reclamation project whether he's claimed or not.
 
Jason Wheeler-LHP
 
A former 8th round pick in 2011, Wheeler has had quite an eventful 2015. He's been demoted to Double-A Chattanooga twice, while being promoted to Triple-A Rochester once after starting the season there. In total, he owns a 5.73 ERA and a measly 5.7 K/9. His Double-A numbers are better (4.34 ERA 7.6 K/9), but still show little reason to be hopeful. With pitching as an asset throughout the farm, the 40 man roster spot could go to better use.
 
Position Players:
 
Chris Herrmann-C
 
Much like Duensing, Herrmann isn't an immediate DFA option for the Twins. He's on the 25 man roster as the backup catcher, and with Josmil Pinto (who's not catching) as the only other 40 man option, this isn't happening now. Regardless, Herrmann isn't a big leaguer, and the Twins have some serious issues behind the dish. Over the winter, addressing their backstop situation is a must. Herrmann is slashing .159/.225/.305, which is bad (and even worse by the standards of a guy with a career .187/.254/.289 slash line). Minnesota needs some catching depth, and Herrmann doesn't qualify as that.
 
Eduardo Nunez-Util
 
Smoke and mirrors was what Eduardo Nunez put up for a good portion of 2015. Now the owner of a .268 average, Nunez owned a .302/.333/.508 slash line up until the All Star Break. The catch was that he played in just 22 games and had just 66 plate appearances. He's been worth 0.6 fWAR on the season, which is at least a positive. Nunez however was someone I thought could have been DFA'd prior to the 2015 season starting. Better utility options are generally out there, and as an arbitration guy this upcoming season, he's not going to be worth the expense.
 
Shane Robinson-OF
 
If anyone assumed their role better than Shane Robinson in 2015, I'm not aware of it. Brought in to be a 4th outfielder, he was exactly that. It was Jordan Schafer that was kept out of spring training at the detriment of Aaron Hicks, not Robinson. In his first season away from the Cardinals, Robinson has slashed .255/.306/.331. His five steals tie a career high, and his 0.5 fWAR is on pace to be a career best. His defense was a boost to a Twins outfield in flux, and he gave the club everything asked of him. Now with the outfield in a more stable situation, Robinson can be thanked for his contributions and be made expendable.
 
Oswaldo Arcia-OF
 
Easily the highest profile name on this list, Arcia puts the Twins in a tough spot. He has played just 19 games in the big leagues this season, and is not deserving of a September callup. Despite a career best .276/.338/.379 slash line at the MLB level, he compiled 15 strikeouts and just four walks. Despite being a power guy (34 HR the last two seasons), he swings and misses far too often. At Triple-A Rochester, Arcia owns a .206/.265/.385 slash line with 11 home runs 75 strikeouts and just 17 walks. He has hit just .108/.202/.176 since July 21, and his attitude combined with effort have been in question most of his career. Out of options going forward, Minnesota dealing him this offseason seems like a good avenue to explore.
 
With a farm system ready to overflow with prospects, and some worthy September call ups not being on the 40 man roster, Minnesota will need to begin some turnover. Abover are a few of the names to keep eyes on. As the Twins look to get back into a yearly playoff picture, Minnesota will need to fill the 40 man with more quality than quantity types.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

August 20, 2015 is a day that will hopefully go down in history for the Minnesota Twins. While baseball's (and the Twins) number on prospect has already debuted at the big league level, it's on this day that Minnesota is hoping he never goes back to the farm. Entering a major league lineup with Miguel Sano for the first time, the Twins have their future franchise cornerstones in place. Although 2015 is just a starting point for Buxton, there's a few things I'd like to see from him over the final month and a half.
 
In his first stint with the big league club, Buxton slashed just .189/.231/.270 across 11 games before hitting the disabled list with a thumb injury. For a guy that has torn through the minor leagues, the output was less than stellar. Knowing full well that his bat would take some time, the slow start isn't anything to be disappointed with. That said, there's a few other things that should be keyed in on for the 21 year-old.
 
1. Controlled But Unlimited Effort
 
Often times in the world of sports (more often football), you'll hear about a player's motor. Byron Buxton has one of the highest running motors in all of baseball. Not only does he absolutely fly, but he's going at 110%, 100% of the time. While that trait is something that the Twins no doubt have to enjoy, it's when it becomes detrimental that there is a problem.
 
Much like Bryce Harper before him, Buxton needs to play the final month of the season with an understanding of what controlled effort looks like. He has been shelved the past two seasons after colliding with a teammate, and sliding on a steal. He has routinely smashed into fences, and has obliterated his lanky frame. The punishment he has put on his body has been nothing short of drastic.
 
Suggesting Buxton play the game of baseball differently is not something that I would be behind. However, Torii Hunter should be in Buxton's ear helping him to feel through how to give the same level of effort, without sacrificing his ability to be on the field for his team. Protecting himself while going into the wall, or getting his hands up when sliding into a bag are minor changes that Buxton can make, while still utilizing his style. In the remainder of the season, Buxton needs to continue to play with the same type of effort, with a bit more regard for his body.
 
2. Improved Approach At The Plate
 
For the Twins, Buxton was immediately going to be an elite, if not Gold Glove caliber, centerfielder. He is that fast, and that good with his glove. What he wasn't going to do was hit. Despite being a career .301 hitter in the minors, Buxton needed to get a feel for big league pitching. He fell somewhat flat in starting out hitting below the Mendoza Line in his first taste at the MLB level.
 
For a guy who owns a 245/135 K/BB ratio across 276 minor league games, Buxton's 15/2 K/BB ratio with the Twins wasn't a good start. The best thing that happened to him however was a stint in Triple-A. Now facing pitchers capable of spinning curveballs and other breaking pitches, Buxton was forced to alter his approach, and become a more patient hitter.
 
In 13 games, he did just that. Striking out 12 times while drawing four walks, Buxton had hits in each of his 13 games for Triple-A Rochester. How owned a .400/.441/.545 slash line, and collected three doubles, a triple, and a home run. It's safe to say that he's headed back to the show with a significant amount of confidence in his corner.
You'd be crazy to think that Buxton is going to bat anywhere near .400 at the major league level, and he may not even reach a .300 mark. What the Twins have to be hoping for though, is that Buxton can hit around .280 the rest of the way, while striking out less, and utilizing his speed to pick up extra base hits.
 
3. Make The Speed Play
 
As things stand, the Twins have stolen just 55 bases as a team (in 2013, Buxton stole that many on his own). The club leader is Brian Dozier, with 10 (he's the only Twins player with double digits). Byron Buxton needs to be the catalyst in reversing that poor output.
 
Buxton is a definite stolen base threat, but swiping bases at the big league level is much more than just speed. With 22 steals to his credit this season, Buxton has plenty of speed on his side. What he needs to accomplish throughout the last month and a half of the season, is to perfect his jump and learn big league pitchers.
 
Paul Molitor has allowed his Twins team to be more aggressive on the bases this season. For Buxton, he needs to be the leader when it comes to taking the extra base, as well as stealing them. After his recent thumb injury, head first slides shouldn't be avoided, but rather perfected. If Buxton can hone in his jump on pitchers, as well as his sliding ability, he will go into 2016 with another weapon at his disposal.
 
4. Drop A Bomb
 
Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton are vastly different players. The former has the ability to hit 30 home runs on a season-by-season basis (maybe even 40), while the latter will top out around 20. However, Buxton definitely does have a power stroke involved in his game. If he can launch his first home run at the MLB level in the final month and a half, it takes another pressure off of his plate for the upcoming season.
 
Really, that's more what Buxton hitting his first big league home run is about. If he can remove the distraction of "firsts" this season, it allows him to go into 2016 focused on a clean slate. First home run, first steal, first triple, etc. are things that Buxton doesn't need to worry about in a season where has is going to be dubbed "the man" in the outfield.
 
In his best year, Buxton will likely have a chance to hit around 15-20 homers as he adds more muscle to his frame. If he can enjoy some late season milestones for the Twins in 2015, he will set himself up for a 2016 in which he can worry about letting the game come to him.
 
5. Top The Lineup Often
 
Byron Buxton has just 11 games with the Twins under his belt, and he spent nine of those contests batting out of the nine hole. The two games in which Buxton led off, he hit .333/.333/.444 for the Twins (small sample size I know). The bigger point though is that a leadoff hitter is exactly what Buxton is.
 
On the season, Molitor has gone most often with Brian Dozier out of the leadoff spot. More recently, the role was given to Aaron Hicks. Hicks makes sense in that spot without Buxton in the lineup, but Dozier rarely does. Dozier is a home run hitter who is being forced to settle for solo blasts each time he's lined up as the table setter. For Minnesota, especially with Hicks on the shelf, leadoff should be Buxton or bust.
 
It's probably fair to slowly integrate baseball's top prospect back into the lineup. If Molitor wants to bat him 7th-9th for a game or two, that's fine. However, realtively early on, Buxton needs to assume the leadoff spot for the Twins. It's going to be his role in 2016, and settling into it over the final part of this season will no doubt pay dividends later. Give Buxton 90% of the leadoff at bats the rest of the way; just another way to remove jitters going into the ever-important 2016 season.
 
Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano in the same big league lineup is going to be a lot of fun. While it may not make much of a difference in 2015, it no doubt signifies the changing of the guard for the Twins, and them paving the way into the future. If Buxton can leverage his 2015 experience into the 2016 season, the entire big leagues should be on notice.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Tyler Duffey twirled his second straight impressive start for the Minnesota Twins as they took on the Orioles in Baltimore. The 24 year-old righty mowed down eight Orioles hitters, and he was on cruise control from the word go. As he's now made it two straight impressive starts, heads are starting to turn. The question is, should they be? And why wasn't Twins Territory already on notice?
 
Duffey was a 5th round pick out of Rice University by the Twins back in 2012. This season, he saw his first eight starts at Double-A Chattanooga, where he was the Opening Day starter. In and of itself that's noteworthy, considering it was Duffey (not Jose Berrios), that manager Doug Mientkiewicz gave the ball to kick off the season. He made that decision look wonderful as Duffey worked 6.2 innings giving up just four hits while striking out 10 Montgomery Biscuit batters. Since, he hasn't looked back.
 
On the season, Duffey has struck out eight or more batters in a game six times in 25 starts. He has 10 and 12 strikeout performances, and his eight strikeouts against the Orioles on Thursday night were the most by a Twins pitcher since July 5 when Ervin Santana sat down eight Royals. In his 25 starts, Duffey has given up more than three earned runs just five times, and he's held team scoreless ten times.
 
In 2015, the Twins have been aggressive with the consistently impressing Duffey. After pitching to the tune of a 2.56 ERA across eight Double-A starts (while owning a 9.3 K/9), Duffey found himself at Triple-A Rochester. The success came with him as he compiled a 2.72 ERA across 13 starts. After a tough first test at the big league level, it appears Duffey has arrived for the Twins too.
 
Starting against the Cleveland Indians and Baltimore Orioles, Duffey has put together 13.2 innings of impressive pitching. He's surrendered just 11 hits, two earned runs, and five walks, all while fanning 15 batters. Across those two starts, opposing hitters are batting just .224/.296/.265 off of him. By all early indications, it would appear as though Duffey is here to stay.
 
8.08, 6.44, 6.25, and 5.53 are the Twins current starters K/9 (May, Gibson, Milone, and Santana). Duffey finds himself the owner of a 9.19 mark through his first three big league starts. On a team starved for strikeouts, Duffey is providing the gold standard.
 
As he continues to see turns in a major league rotation, Duffey will only have a chance to get better. Currently throwing his hammer curve right around 30% of the time, the Twins have to be ecstatic about just how good of a pitch the former Rice Owl has at his disposal. Duffey is also getting batters to chase a healthy amount in generating swings at pitches outside of the zone just over 35% of the time. It's safe to say he's working into a groove, and making the game come to him.
 
A driven, motivated, and level-headed individual, Tyler Duffey has the opportunity to be a key cog for winning Twins teams in the years to come. Although not billed with the hype of other top pitching prospects, Duffey's performances are begging you to take notice all on their own.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

August 20, 2015 is a day that will hopefully go down in history for the Minnesota Twins. While baseball's (and the Twins) number on prospect has already debuted at the big league level, it's on this day that Minnesota is hoping he never goes back to the farm. Entering a major league lineup with Miguel Sano for the first time, the Twins have their future franchise cornerstones in place. Although 2015 is just a starting point for Buxton, there's a few things I'd like to see from him over the final month and a half.
 
In his first stint with the big league club, Buxton slashed just .189/.231/.270 across 11 games before hitting the disabled list with a thumb injury. For a guy that has torn through the minor leagues, the output was less than stellar. Knowing full well that his bat would take some time, the slow start isn't anything to be disappointed with. That said, there's a few other things that should be keyed in on for the 21 year-old.
 
1. Controlled But Unlimited Effort
 
Often times in the world of sports (more often football), you'll hear about a player's motor. Byron Buxton has one of the highest running motors in all of baseball. Not only does he absolutely fly, but he's going at 110%, 100% of the time. While that trait is something that the Twins no doubt have to enjoy, it's when it becomes detrimental that there is a problem.
 
Much like Bryce Harper before him, Buxton needs to play the final month of the season with an understanding of what controlled effort looks like. He has been shelved the past two seasons after colliding with a teammate, and sliding on a steal. He has routinely smashed into fences, and has obliterated his lanky frame. The punishment he has put on his body has been nothing short of drastic.
 
Suggesting Buxton play the game of baseball differently is not something that I would be behind. However, Torii Hunter should be in Buxton's ear helping him to feel through how to give the same level of effort, without sacrificing his ability to be on the field for his team. Protecting himself while going into the wall, or getting his hands up when sliding into a bag are minor changes that Buxton can make, while still utilizing his style. In the remainder of the season, Buxton needs to continue to play with the same type of effort, with a bit more regard for his body.
 
2. Improved Approach At The Plate
 
For the Twins, Buxton was immediately going to be an elite, if not Gold Glove caliber, centerfielder. He is that fast, and that good with his glove. What he wasn't going to do was hit. Despite being a career .301 hitter in the minors, Buxton needed to get a feel for big league pitching. He fell somewhat flat in starting out hitting below the Mendoza Line in his first taste at the MLB level.
 
For a guy who owns a 245/135 K/BB ratio across 276 minor league games, Buxton's 15/2 K/BB ratio with the Twins wasn't a good start. The best thing that happened to him however was a stint in Triple-A. Now facing pitchers capable of spinning curveballs and other breaking pitches, Buxton was forced to alter his approach, and become a more patient hitter.
 
In 13 games, he did just that. Striking out 12 times while drawing four walks, Buxton had hits in each of his 13 games for Triple-A Rochester. How owned a .400/.441/.545 slash line, and collected three doubles, a triple, and a home run. It's safe to say that he's headed back to the show with a significant amount of confidence in his corner.
You'd be crazy to think that Buxton is going to bat anywhere near .400 at the major league level, and he may not even reach a .300 mark. What the Twins have to be hoping for though, is that Buxton can hit around .280 the rest of the way, while striking out less, and utilizing his speed to pick up extra base hits.
 
3. Make The Speed Play
 
As things stand, the Twins have stolen just 55 bases as a team (in 2013, Buxton stole that many on his own). The club leader is Brian Dozier, with 10 (he's the only Twins player with double digits). Byron Buxton needs to be the catalyst in reversing that poor output.
 
Buxton is a definite stolen base threat, but swiping bases at the big league level is much more than just speed. With 22 steals to his credit this season, Buxton has plenty of speed on his side. What he needs to accomplish throughout the last month and a half of the season, is to perfect his jump and learn big league pitchers.
 
Paul Molitor has allowed his Twins team to be more aggressive on the bases this season. For Buxton, he needs to be the leader when it comes to taking the extra base, as well as stealing them. After his recent thumb injury, head first slides shouldn't be avoided, but rather perfected. If Buxton can hone in his jump on pitchers, as well as his sliding ability, he will go into 2016 with another weapon at his disposal.
 
4. Drop A Bomb
 
Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton are vastly different players. The former has the ability to hit 30 home runs on a season-by-season basis (maybe even 40), while the latter will top out around 20. However, Buxton definitely does have a power stroke involved in his game. If he can launch his first home run at the MLB level in the final month and a half, it takes another pressure off of his plate for the upcoming season.
 
Really, that's more what Buxton hitting his first big league home run is about. If he can remove the distraction of "firsts" this season, it allows him to go into 2016 focused on a clean slate. First home run, first steal, first triple, etc. are things that Buxton doesn't need to worry about in a season where has is going to be dubbed "the man" in the outfield.
 
In his best year, Buxton will likely have a chance to hit around 15-20 homers as he adds more muscle to his frame. If he can enjoy some late season milestones for the Twins in 2015, he will set himself up for a 2016 in which he can worry about letting the game come to him.
 
5. Top The Lineup Often
 
Byron Buxton has just 11 games with the Twins under his belt, and he spent nine of those contests batting out of the nine hole. The two games in which Buxton led off, he hit .333/.333/.444 for the Twins (small sample size I know). The bigger point though is that a leadoff hitter is exactly what Buxton is.
 
On the season, Molitor has gone most often with Brian Dozier out of the leadoff spot. More recently, the role was given to Aaron Hicks. Hicks makes sense in that spot without Buxton in the lineup, but Dozier rarely does. Dozier is a home run hitter who is being forced to settle for solo blasts each time he's lined up as the table setter. For Minnesota, especially with Hicks on the shelf, leadoff should be Buxton or bust.
 
It's probably fair to slowly integrate baseball's top prospect back into the lineup. If Molitor wants to bat him 7th-9th for a game or two, that's fine. However, realtively early on, Buxton needs to assume the leadoff spot for the Twins. It's going to be his role in 2016, and settling into it over the final part of this season will no doubt pay dividends later. Give Buxton 90% of the leadoff at bats the rest of the way; just another way to remove jitters going into the ever-important 2016 season.
 
Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano in the same big league lineup is going to be a lot of fun. While it may not make much of a difference in 2015, it no doubt signifies the changing of the guard for the Twins, and them paving the way into the future. If Buxton can leverage his 2015 experience into the 2016 season, the entire big leagues should be on notice.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

It's been a tale of two season thus far for the Twins. After racing out to a 49-40 record prior to the All Star Break, Minnesota had positioned itself in the heart of the AL Wild Card race. Since then however, the club has gone 10-20, or completely in the tank. It's not at all fair to suggest it wasn't seen coming, and honestly, it may have even been welcomed.
 
Going into the break, Kyle Gibson owned one of the best 15 ERA's in all of Major League Baseball. Forget that his FIP (fielding independent pitching) mark was north of 4.00, the Twins were happy with their former first rounder. Gibson though wasn't the only one, FIP suggested multiple Twins starters were in for some unpleasant surprises. That same fate seemed to be coming to a few bullpen pitchers as well, despite the output in relief already being lackluster.
 
Timely hitting had been the name of the game for the offense. Joe Mauer was hanging his hat on a ridiculous batting average in high leverage situations. Torii Hunter had staved off the fact that he's 40 years old, and Brian Dozier was pushing past the best second basemen discussion and into the big league's best player. Then, as it has a way of doing, baseball normalized.
 
The Twins own a -29 run differential (the only second place team in any division to be negative), and an ugly 21-36 record. Since the break, it hasn't been regression for one or two players, but rather an implosion across the board.
 
Hunter has slashed just .162/.207/.308 since July 1, and he's been as much of a defensive liability as Oswaldo Arcia. Glen Perkins went from saving 28 straight games, to owning an 8.10 ERA in 11 games after the break. Mauer looked to be turning a corner with a respectable May, but has slashed just .243/.314/.346 since the break. Finally, the stud Dozier, he's become a home run or bust type in every sense of the term. Following his All Star Game blast off of Mark Melancon, Dozier has slashed .212/.276/.416 with six home runs. He's struck out 37 times while walking just 10 times in that span.
 
At the trade deadline, the Twins began to see the writing on the wall. Rather than chasing after a team like the Blue Jay who had added David Price and Troy Tulowitzki, Terry Ryan held his cards and decided to play a truer window. Rather than deal assets for 2015 fixes, he made a move for a controllable reliever in Kevin Jepsen. Unfortunately, the bullpen has gone only further downhill.
 
Next through the revolving door for the Twins was lefty specialist Ryan O'Rourke. After debuting relatively strong, his last 7 outings have been to the tune of an 18.90 ERA. A.J. Achter owns a 9.00 ERA, and Rule 5 pick J.R. Graham is being hidden in a stretch in which he owns an 11.57 ERA over his last six games. In fact, the last time Graham didn't give up a run in relief was on July 26. Add Perkins struggles in, and Neil Allen's relievers are nothing short of a debacle.
 
Of course, with regression looming and so many indicators suggesting it, the obvious answer is that the Twins would be proactive in dealing with the situation. No, they didn't need to make any trades, but almost assuredly the organization would experiment from within. No, Terry Ryan and the Twins have instead welcomed the dumpster fire.
 
In the outfield, Torii Hunter has ceded way to Shane Robinson. Robinson, a capable fourth outfielder (and nothing more) has started three of the Twins last six games. The career .239 hitter is currently deemed more deserving of innings than the number one prospect in baseball, Byron Buxton (who happens to be slashing .412/.444/.549 at Triple-A Rochester.)
 
There's no point in showing distaste about Joe Mauer getting playing time. He's remained healthy and in the lineup this season, if not ultimately unproductive. What he been afforded though is a top of the lineup spot. Instead of batting 6th or lower, manager Paul Molitor continues to run Mauer out in the three hole on a nightly basis (despite his .260 average).
 
For the Twins, the offense has been less of a problem in terms of regression than the pitching has been. With Phil Hughes now on the DL, Ervin Santana looking like he might as well go there, and Glen Perkins quite possibly needing a trip, there should be plenty of options chomping at the bit.
 
Instead, Jose Berrios is continually looked over at Triple-A, Taylor Rogers isn't considered for the bullpen, and hurlers like Nick Burdi, Zack Jones, and J.T. Chargois aren't given the clearance to give it a try.
Understandably, the Twins could make cases to hold each of those young players back if the circumstances were different. The reality is that while regression has set in heavily, Minnesota has chose to welcome it, rather than to address it and further the future avoidance of the problem.
 
While Burdi and Jones have gone through tough stretches, Rogers hasn't been as sharp, and Berrios may have an innings limit, they will all be counted on at some point in 2016 (a few relatively early). The problem is that the Twins are opting to throw those prospects into the fire, rather than to integrate them in what amounts to a developmental period. Much like the handling of Aaron Hicks, the Twins forego an opportunity to use September, and instead bank on a strong spring training translating to immediate big league success.
 
At it's core, 2015 should still be considered a resounding success for Minnesota no matter how it ends (the Twins would need to lose 33 of their final 40 to reach 90 losses, that isn't happening). What is problematic is the way internal operations are carried out. As 2016 rolls around and the Twins are in a position to win, will they know how to carry that out? Welcoming regression, continuing to bungle DL stints, and lacking the push to cure issues from within, some key matters remain a mystery.
 
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The Minnesota Twins dropped another tough game last night, and once again it came against the New York Yankees. After a great start to the season, and heading into the All Star Game strong, Minnesota has been a different team since the break. It was these Yankees that may have started the downward spiral (on July 25th at Target Field), but it's the Twins who don't seem to be leaving the rut any time soon.
 
During the first half of the 2015 Major League Baseball season, it was pretty apparent that the Twins were playing outside and past expectations. This team wasn't a contender, and their secondary statistics suggested regression would be coming. For over 80 games though, Minnesota turned up a nose at all of those notions.
 
Through the first half, Brian Dozier looked like a legitimate MVP candidate, Trevor Plouffe was one of the best third basemen in the big leagues, Torii Hunter looked ageless, Glen Perkins was the gold standard, and Joe Mauer seemingly was battling back to being his former self. It was a perfect storm of everything going right, all at the same time.
 
Dozier's first half was indicative of him being arguably the best second basemen in all of baseball. In 88 games, he slashed .256/.328/.513. His on base percentage once again negated the relevance of his average, and his extra base hit numbers powered the way. With 19 home runs, 26 doubles, and 50 runs batted in, the Southern Miss product was on pace to do something special.
 
Dozier's two infield teammates also paced Minnesota in the first half. Mauer's average (.271) wasn't ideal, but his slash (.271/.336/.387) helped the Twins in the middle of the lineup. His six home runs and 42 runs batted in also were a by product of a very strong high leverage batting average. Plouffe swung to a .259/.320/.449 slash line with 11 homers and 46 runs batted in, along with 22 doubles. Minnesota's third basemen was only overshadowed by a guy named Josh Donaldson.
 
Then there was Torii Hunter. 40 years old, at the end of his career, and still getting it done. The Twins favorite slashed .257/.312/.444 across his first 80 games. Hunter added 14 homers, 15 doubles, and 49 runs batted in to help pace the offense. By all early indications, he had plenty left in the tank.
 
Despite the Twins glaring issues in the bullpen, there was Glen Perkins. A failed starter, but two-time All Star closer, now looked like one of the best in the game. He was 28-28 in save opportunities, owned a 1.21 ERA, and was allowing opposing hitters to bat just .188/.217/.246 off of him. Dazzling probably doesn't do Perkins first half justice.
As the calendar turned over to the second half however, it all came crashing down.
 
Since the break, Dozier has slashed .220/.286/.431, effectively making his poor average a detriment. His six home runs have netted just 11 runs batted in, and he's doubled only five times in 27 games. Mauer has batted just .250/.316/.356 with two homers and nine RBI while Plouffe has watched a nice run of late bring up a paltry .225/.262/.500 slash line since the break. Without his seven home runs and 19 RBI, Plouffe's 26 game post All Star stretch would look even worse.
 
Then, there's the fact that Torii's age has begun to show. He hasn't been a solid defensive player at any point for the Twins in 2015, but that was expected. His .172/.215/.322 slash with just four home runs and 11 RBI since the break would warrant a demotion for most younger players. To say he's gone in the tank is putting it nicely.
 
As the bullpen has seemed to survive on shaky ground in the second half, it's been Perkins who has been arguably the worst. Despite the dazzling first half, he owns an 8.10 ERA in 10.0 post break innings. He's picked up only three saves, blown two, and lost three times. Opposing hitters are batting .383/.420/.702 off of him, and he's surrendered four home runs.
 
When looking at the middle of the Twins lineup, and the heart of what the team needs to compete, it's been a blow up in every sense. Dozier, Plouffe, and Hunter have turned into home run or bust types, while Mauer has been even more of a shell of what once was. Adding in the fact that Perkins is no longer a guaranteed save only complicates the issue.
 
As things stand, there is a rainbow through the storm that the Twins veterans have created. Miguel Sano (.292), Eddie Rosario (.279), and Aaron Hicks (.276) are pacing the Twins lineup. The youth movement has started, and 2016 was always seen as the opening of an upcoming window. While it's been the veterans failure to remain consistent that has cause the Twins biggest regression, it has been the youth's ability to succeed that has kept Minnesota relevant.
 
For months leading up to the All Star Game, regression was a word Twins fans wanted to stop hearing about. The fact now is that the numbers have began to even out, and because they were so steeply skewed in Minnesota's favor, they are now going the opposite way equally as steep.
 
The downturn has highlighted why the Twins were right to balk at making any big moves at the deadline. Playing well above their heads, remaining in contention for a wild card spot was unlikely. What has happened though is positive growth for 2016, a season in which the Twins should begin to "go for it." Curbing the post "break" downturn is something the Twins need to figure out however, and having the regression hit across the board at the same time is something that has to be avoided.
 
Paul Molitor has done an incredible job in his first year as the Twins skipper, but if he wants to use this season's success as a kickstart for the years to come, focusing on the second half slide is priority number one. Mauer and Hunter are more done than they aren't, but Plouffe, Dozier, and Perkins are cornerstones for this organization, and getting 162 games worth of productivity is part of taking the next step.
 
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As baseball evolves in time, one thing will always remain, and that is the fact that the sport is a thinking man's game. Regardless of what is going on in front of you, there's numerous outcomes to consider in any given instance prior to them taking place. A large portion (let's call it 90%) of the game remains simple at its core on the field, but that emerging 10% can often being explained by statistical analysis.
 
Sabermetrics aren't for everyone, but there's no doubt they are for anyone. In a numbers driven sport, it's probably time for a wider variety of numbers to be given their due.
 
Full disclosure, I don't consider myself a sabermetrics diehard. I understand their place, value, and use. I include them and credit certain values in my writing, and I believe they help to explain some of what your eye already sees on the field. I don't believe they are a be all, end all. They have a place, and far too often aren't given that.
Recently, Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press caught up with Twins catcher Kurt Suzuki in the name of sabermetrics. Suzuki is the poster child for such a discussion. He's roughly a replacement level catcher, and finding any and every advantage to improve his game and worth should be his constant goal.
 
In his piece, Berardino asks Suzuki two questions that get somewhat appalling responses. Here is what was said:
 
On what stats he likes: “Obviously the WHIP for the pitchers. I don’t know what the other stuff is. (Fielding Independent Pitching), I don’t know what that means. For hitters, I like the OPS. I think OPS is better than average. That has a lot to do with it.”
 
On zero being replacement level: “I find that hard to believe. If you take a big-league guy and then you go get some guy from Double-A, you’re telling me that? Unless it’s a bench player, I don’t see that.”
 
Addressing question one, Zuk keeps it simple. WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) is a valuable takeaway. It's pretty simply logic to understand that putting guys on base (no matter how it happens) isn't beneficial to a pitcher. What WHIP doesn't explain is what Suzuki decides to ignore.
 
FIP (fielding independent pitching) has become one of the most important pitching numbers over the past couple of seasons. In understanding FIP, a pitcher is able to assess their performance in relation to being a sum of total parts. Knowing there are eight defenders playing into what happens on any given batted ball, a pitcher's effectiveness is quantified in relation to his ERA. FIP helps to tell a deeper story, whether or not hits are warranted, or a by-product of a bigger issue. Once again highlighting that there is no one number that does complete justice.
 
Again staying in a relative comfort zone, Suzuki looks at OPS (like WHIP, OPS would not be considered a traditional sabermetric stat). OPS (on-base plus slugging) has gained relevance in recent years because of what it says about a batter. As seen in his teammate Brian Dozier, Suzuki understands that average alone is not a good measure of a player's value.
 
Batting average is the quantifiable sum, but it's on-base percentage and slugging percentage that win games. Dozier for example has a paltry .248 AVG, but his .318 OBP and .495 SLG set him apart. He walks a considerable amount (though less than his career average, which is another issue altogether), and he finds ways to give the Twins runners. When he is hitting the ball, he also finds ways to snag extra bases, which drive his slugging percentage way up. A batter getting on base, and being further on the base paths is no doubt more valuable than a consistent singles hitter.
 
The second question Suzuki addresses is just somewhat indicative of the problem as a whole. Sabermetrics are definitely not for everyone, but they are very much for anyone. Suzuki has decided to look past a level of understanding because he has chosen to discredit the metrics. Whether that's because they aren't kind to him, or for some other reason, remains unsolved.
 
Replacement level being zero in and of itself should be a relatively easy numerical,value to grasp. If WAR (wins above replacement) calculates a positive or negative value, then 0 would serve as the statistical baseline. Plus or minus that number would then define a player's ability.
 
Defining replacement level is somewhat difficult, but FanGraphs states: "One who costs no marginal resources to acquire. This is the type of player who would fill in for the starter in case of injuries, slumps, alien abductions, etc." At it's core, that definition is relatively self-explanatory. Working as an MLB player to increase your value, targeting areas of concern would no doubt be a good place to start. If WAR is a sum of all parts, understanding the underlying sabermetrics that make up the whole would be a good plan of action.
 
At the end of the day, any amount of numbers can get to a point where the game becomes a chess match inundated by numerical values. At its core though, baseball is a chess match, and knowing how to utilize the numbers in your favor is something that no doubt is the difference in certain key situations.
 
Sabermetrics aren't for everyone, but they are for anyone and should be comprehended by those looking to utilize their utmost value.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz