Ted Schwerzler

ALDS Game 3 New York Yankees (103-59) @ Minnesota Twins (101-61) Series: 2-0 Yankees Start Time: 8:40 PM ET / 7:40 PM CT Forecast: 60 degrees and sunny Pitching Matchup: RHP Luis Severino vs RHP Jake Odorizzi Lineups: Jake Odorizzi posted a sub-2.00 ERA through his first 13 starts for the Twins this season, and he was below 3.00 until the month of July. For the first half of the season Odorizzi established himself as the go-to arm behind Jose Berrios and earned a trip to his first All-Star Game because of it. July was not kind as the former Rays righty posted a 7.43 ERA in five turns and desperately needed to get back on track. Making nine more starts the rest of the way he rebounded with a 3.04 ERA .647 OPS against and 65/16 K/BB. As a fly ball pitcher it always made sense to turn Odorizzi loose in Target Field, but it was actually in New York that Jake fared significantly better than this outfit. His length in a series that has seen Minnesota get just a combined 6.0 IP from starters is a narrative to watch. Yankees Starter Aaron Boone turns to Luis Severino for game three. Had he been healthy in 2019 Severino would’ve likely been the game one choice as a two-time All-Star and Cy Young candidate at age 25. Instead he’s thrown just 12.0 IP this season and he’s yet to be given a leash longer than 80 pitches. Severino is a strikeout pitcher with plenty of velocity, and he’s fanned more than 10 per nine each of the past two seasons. He hasn’t been known to give up the long ball, and command isn’t much of a problem either. Luis does have a 6.26 ERA across 23 postseason IP however, and with the uncertainty of a small runway to get ready for this action, New York may decide to go with a quick hook. Battle Tested Twins There’s no denying that Minnesota is up against it and in a far from enviable position. That being said, this group has veterans sprinkled in that can provide levity during this type of scenario. Baldelli has kept things light and loose for his club all season, and nothing suggests bucking that trend now. Minnesota didn’t suffer a three-game losing streak until their 94th game of the season and surrendered to that fate just twice all season. Including a loss in the final game of the regular season the Twins are riding a three-game skid, but history suggests an ability to put the fire out. All hands will be on deck in an elimination game, and the expectation should be that the usage of Taylor Rogers, Trevor May, and Sergio Romo should be more liberal if the situation presents itself. While pitching has been a downfall, and the management of it, a central focus will be placed on the quality of at-bats and production from the lineup. After breaking records left and right during the regular season, the Twins have been outscored 18-6 in the past 18 innings. Climbing out of a 2-0 hole is hardly an easy task, and looking at it from a big picture view does nothing to minimize the situation. The Twins need to take their opportunities in small chunks at a time and attempt to win each inning on the path to making this a series before it’s over.

You won’t have any trouble finding glowing stories about the New York slugger. Sanchez was signed as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic, and he consistently popped up on top 100 prospect lists through his time in the minor leagues. A two-time All-Star and Rookie of the Year runner up, Sanchez owns an .846 career OPS and surpassed the 100-home run plateau this past season. Just about to turn 27, it’s Sanchez that is often thought of as the premiere backstop in baseball. With a breakout 2019 season under his belt, Mitch Garver threw all of that for a loop. I’ve described Garver as “The best catcher in baseball” when tweeting out his exploits on a regular basis. What may have started out as somewhat in jest has become a ringing endorsement of talent that holds serve with the high praise. Following a decent showing during his 2018 rookie season Garver went to work over the winter, and it is paying off in any more significant way would likely be impossible. At the end of the regular season Rocco Baldelli had played Garver in 93 games. He was given regular rest sprinkling in veteran Jason Castro, and he missed time after a Shohei Ohtani slide into home put him on the Injured List with an ankle injury. When the dust settled on those 93 games, Garver posted a .995 OPS. In Minnesota Twins history only four players have posted a higher single-season OPS: his teammate Nelson Cruz, 2009 MVP Joe Mauer, 1977 MVP Rod Carew, and Hall of Famer Harmon Killebrew (twice). Mitch ripped 16 doubles, which is a modest total on its own, but launched a Twins record 31 dingers (30 as a catcher) with a nutty .630 slugging percentage. When stepping into the batter’s box Garver brought his lumber and terrorized opposing pitchers. He’s been a bat first player for most of his career though, and it’s what he did behind the plate that elevated his game and stature in baseball’s landscape. After posting a -16 DRS and -9.2 FRM (framing runs) in 2018 he jumped those results to 0 DRS and 0.8 FRM in 2019. Working with Tanner Swanson over the offseason he focused on controlling the bottom of the strike zone and exponentially increased his effectiveness by percentage of called strikes. During the ALDS press conference on Tuesday afternoon Cory Provus asked Garver about the work he put in and if he was happy with where things wound up from a defensive growth standpoint. Mitch answered, “I think about that a lot.” He talked about the importance of stealing any extra strike and how you may quantify that. There’s a level of importance that plays into all facets of the game based on how each pitch is received. Garver also noted that “the confidence level from a manager to put you back there knowing the work I put in is translating to the game, I think that shows a lot. Having a manager that can trust you behind the plate, that’s kind of more important than all of those things (referring to defensive metrics).” Whether Mitch is in the lineup for every game of the series or not, it will be the time he’s on the field that his ability can truly take the spotlight it deserves. Sanchez has gotten the accolades while playing in the mega-market that is New York. The Yankees “Kraken” is the longball leader since he entered the league. Going into 2019 it was a good bet that he’d return to Silver Slugger status and regain his place at the peak of the position. For now, though it’s Garver’s chance to show he heads the conversation and currently carries the torch. Minnesota is often a secondary thought when it comes to national discussions. The smaller market that Minneapolis is will never trump the costs, and regardless of the press that this Bomba Squad has driven, individual contributors will fall by the wayside. For the guy from Albuquerque that has had to grind for everything he’s earned, that’s probably all fine and well. Over the course of this series though, Mitch Garver can allow his play to overshadow even the largest of markets. If and when those moments come it will be good for him, because he’ll have earned it.

There isn’t a ton of history between this collection of Twins and the Yankees presumed ace. Paxton started Opening Day at Target Field last season after a bald eagle attempted to throw him off his game. That lineup couldn’t be further from the 2019 collection, and this squad saw him for just three innings in May before he hit the injured list for nearly a month. Rather than breaking down individual matchups, the intrigue between what both sides do well is a tug-of-war between who wins out. Rocco Baldelli’s club set the single-season MLB home run record in 2019, besting this New York club by one. They owned the second-best slugging percentage in the history of baseball, and they thrive by hitting the ball out of the park. Dominated by right-handed power, left-handed arms are something the Twins have stuck a fork in all year. Facing lefties 39 times they posted a .286/.357/.529 slash line with 88 home runs. That’s an average of 2.3 HR per start against lefties as opposed to their 1.8 HR per start against righties. There’s also the consideration of where Paxton may pitch against the Twins. Unless his butt injury bumps him from a game one appearance, he can be expected to take the ball starting the series and then in a potential game four scenario. The first game would be at Yankees Stadium with that second start coming at Target Field. Minnesota has been a record-breaking road team this year, and the lineup has an OPS .31 points higher away from Target Field. In those road contests they also left the yard an additional 33 times. From a stadium standpoint Target Field and Yankees Stadium have both played very similarly in 2019. Per ESPN’s MLB Park Factors they rank 24th and 25th in HR. What we saw between these squads both during the extra-inning affair in Minneapolis, and their total body of work, is that any given night can make a ball yard look pretty small. So how does this stack up against Paxton? Well, there’s a lot to unpack. As a lefty it would be expected that righties hit better off of him, and that is the case. Opposite- handed batters own a .752 OPS against him while left-handed hitters have posted just a .670 OPS. Those lefties enjoy a higher .266 average and .314 on-base percentage. Righties jump way up in terms of slugging, posting a .445 mark, nearly 100 points higher. Surrendering 23 homers in 2019, Paxton has allowed only two of them to left-handed hitters and he has a K/BB two trips to the bench higher against lefties. Although Yankees Stadium is often considered a bandbox, Paxton has enjoyed his time at home. In 15 home starts he has an ERA a full run lower (3.35) with an OPS nearly 200 points less (.650) than where he’s at on the road (.814). 2019 was Paxton’s worst full season as a starter. He posted his highest ERA, walk rate, and HR rate. He’s given up a career high hard-hit rate, fly ball rate, and nearly matched his HR/FB tally from 2018. That’s not to suggest this isn’t still a top-tier pitcher as the former Mariner is sitting down over 11 per nine and gets swinging strikes 14% of the time. It’s for spots like these that the Yankees went and swung the deal to bolster their rotation. At the end of the day something must give, and it’s pretty hard not to say the pressure is on the Bombers. Paxton is pitching in the postseason for the first time, and now doing so with the weight of the empire on his back. He throws with the arm that Minnesota clobbers, and he’ll be coming off an injury-shortened start his last time out. As the home team it’s on New York to hold serve in the Bronx, and with Luis Severino likely to follow Paxton, a game one steal may be the best hand for the Twins to play. Given how closely these two teams look on paper, it’s hard to imagine we’re going to see anything less than a four-game series. If the Twins can continue playing to their strengths and get to Paxton in game one, they’ll be in a great spot to make their way to the American League Championship Series. There’s no denying that Minnesota needs to perform up to expectations as well, but if there’s a draw they should be salivating about, it’s this one. Not all aces are made equal, and much like Jose Berrios for Minnesota, Paxton has plenty to prove across the entire baseball landscape. Pitching can tend to have the upper hand in October, but Baldelli employing #BombaSZN early would hardly be a shock.

On May 24 the Twins had just wrapped up a victory against the Chicago White Sox. They were 34-16 through their first 50 games and the club had swatted 101 homers. Dubbed “#SotaPop” by Twins Daily’s own Nick Nelson a month earlier, Eddie Rosario dropped a term that would stick the rest of the way. He suggested “When you’re hitting a lot of bombas, everybody’s hitting bombas, everybody’s happy.” From that point forward the “Bomba Squad” was born. https://twitter.com/dohyoungpark/status/1132140065700892672?lang=en Rosario’s comments came just a day after Minnesota had launched eight dingers for the second time on the season. Fast forward a few weeks and Byron Buxton had just launched the 4th greatest homer of the season in terms of WPA. It was his blast on June 5th though that busted out the tape measure. 454 feet against the rival Cleveland Indians, the shot was described as launched while putting the league on notice. Anyone in this lineup could take you out, and of the no-doubter variety. As the month of June wore on, it became time that the authorities take notice. All season long the Minnesota Twins did an exceptional job of marketing this team. Facing attendance woes from a year prior, they found ways to funnel fans into Target Field. Keeping with that theme in relation to the All-Star Game, the Twins creatively marketed the “Bomba Ballot.” Baldelli’s Bangers ended up meeting the Minneapolis Bomb Squad, and one group was preventing crime while the other was committing it. https://twitter.com/MinneapolisPD/status/1143988275872329728 Heading into the All Star Break the Twins surpassed the 2018 New York Yankees mark for most home runs prior to the time off. They swatted four dingers against the Texas Rangers on July 5 at Target Field giving them 162 on the year (they’d add one more the next day). That game was a blowout 15-6 win that saw catcher Mitch Garver continue his tear. https://twitter.com/TFTwins/status/1147350726731079681 You can’t look back to July without thinking about the epic affair Minnesota and New York provided over the course of 10 innings. The two clubs combined for 26 run on 35 hits, and while the pitching got beat around, it was the bats that showed off. These two squads have been running away from the pack with the longball all year, and that was one of the most exciting games Minnesota has played this season. Unfortunately, it ended with an Aaron Hicks diving grab in the gap, but Miguel Sano put his stamp on the action by leaving the park twice on the evening. https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1153877390059114496?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1153877390059114496&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Ftwinsdaily.com%2Farticles.html%2F_%2Fminnesota-twins-news%2Fminnesota-twins%2Fthe-10-most-important-home-runs-for-this-record-breaking-twins-team-r8337 When the calendar turned to August the Indians began to believe they had a chance in the AL Central division. With the division lead shrinking by the day the month needed to get off to a good start. The lineup had lost some key pieces due to injury, some of the pitching performances weren’t what they were early on, and there was too much runway left to sit back and rest. On a day in which he was getting a break, Miguel Sano became a hero. Pinch hitting for Ehire Adrianza in the 9th inning of a tie game against the Atlanta Braves, he stepped in got a second pitch, and sent everybody home. https://twitter.com/MLBONFOX/status/1158579684084350976?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1158579684084350976&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Ftwinsdaily.com%2Farticles.html%2F_%2Fminnesota-twins-news%2Fminnesota-twins%2Fthe-10-most-important-home-runs-for-this-record-breaking-twins-team-r8337 Before the month would end the Twins walloped their greatest home run of the season. Highlighted as the greatest WPA inducing blast of 2019 in Cooper’s piece last month, Marwin Gonzalez got all of a ball from Josh Hader to put the Twins ahead while trailing in the 8th inning. Both Gonzalez and Nelson Cruz had looked like slam dunk fits for this club coming into free agency, and this was just another moment to highlight how right the front office got it. https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1161477762990792704?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1161477762990792704&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Ftwinsdaily.com%2Farticles.html%2F_%2Fminnesota-twins-news%2Fminnesota-twins%2Fthe-10-most-important-home-runs-for-this-record-breaking-twins-team-r8337 Minnesota began the month of September with a 4.5 game lead on the Cleveland Indians. Despite needing to provide some calm myself, and Indians personality Jensen Lewis providing fuel for the fire, the Twins were going to wrap the Central up. Holding serve the first two weeks was a must, and no serve was bigger than the Nelson Cruz bomba against the Washington Nationals. Statcast measured the blast at just 460 feet but crushing it out to bystanders at Minnie and Paul’s in dead center, there’s zero doubt the distance was significantly closer to the 500 ft mark. https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1172324536164839424 The Twins went into Cleveland and hung a doubleheader sweep on the Indians in what amounted to their final division opportunity of the season. Sending a shot out to left field off Nick Goody, Minnesota had all the breathing room they’d need. Once again, the Twins polarizing third basemen had come up in a spot fitting for a star. https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1173048756998033409 Just a couple of days later Sano went yard again, this time registering the longest homer of the season (per Statcast) tracked at 482 ft. Tape measure shots have become something of the norm for Miguel, but this one was something else. As Minnesota was in the swing of a 13-game stretch against the bottom of the division to close out the year, they were going to make sure there was no doubt about who the cream of the crop was. https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1174118837391773696 Another double dinger day was on tap for Sano against the Royals to close out the home slate at Target Field. As impressive as his efforts were in a 12-8 victory against Kansas City, it was his friend an elder statesmen that stole the show. Much like Jim Thome and his pursuit of 600 the last time Minnesota won the division (though the record breaker came in the following season), Nelson Cruz punctuated a career year with blast number 40. That longball was also the 400th of his career and firmly entrenched him as one of the greatest power hitters to ever play the game. https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1175864541760172035 Now the division has been in hand for nearly a week but coming off the official clinch on September 25 (and Baldelli’s birthday), the Twins trotted out their hangover lineup on Thursday against Ron Gardenhire’s Tigers. Minnesota was getting their game in hand over the Yankees in, and knotted at 299 homers could be the first to reach 300. Jonathan Schoop hit a wall scraper for a two-run shot to reach Sparta and history was made. Willians Astudillo tacked on another before the day was over, and now the Twins will look to hold serve before facing a Yankees team in a much more desirable set of circumstances. https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1177306346204459008 There are just three games left in the 2019 regular season. Minnesota can tie the all-time franchise wins record. They could surpass a few more benchmarks. Heck, they could even hang a final sweep on the board against the Kansas City Royals. No matter what they do though, this will have been the year of #SotaPop turned into the Bomba Squad and we lived through big flies that never seemed like they’d come down. https://twitter.com/dohyoungpark/status/1170114016955523072

Box Score Dobnak: 6.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K Home Runs: Luis Arraez (4), Rosario (32) Multi-Hit Games: Polanco (2-4, R, 3B), Cruz (2-4, R, RBI), Arraez (2-3, HR, R, 2 RBI, BB) WPA of +0.1: Arraez .289, Dobnak .180, Duffey .109 WPA of -0.1: Garver -.113 Early on in this one the story was infield defense. Minnesota has slipped behind their early season defensive efforts for months now. After playing at a career-best clip to start the year, Jorge Polanco has looked like the guy who won’t be a long-term answer at short. His error allowed the cement-footed Miguel Cabrera to score all the way from first base (it looked as if he was running in slow motion) to give Detroit a lead. Dobnak saw Miguel Sano boot a grounder later in the action that ended up proving harmless. Early in the season Eddie Rosario introduced us to the term “bombas” and it was off the bat of the diminutive Luis Arraez that the lead was captured. A 402 foot no- doubter put Minnesota in the lead. It was his fourth of the year and longest career blast to date. Dobnak bowed out with a lead and Tyler Duffey locked down his 23rd straight inning of scoreless relief work. Insurance runs didn’t take long as Minnesota was ready to put up another crooked number in the eighth inning. Polanco grabbed his seventh triple of the season with some solid baserunning after the first out. Nelson Cruz then drove him home through a pulled-in infield. Mr. Bombas himself, Rosario, then went jack job on a laser to right field for his 32nd dinger of the season. Up 5-1 needing just six outs, this one was all but decided. Don’t worry, Rosie wasn’t done with the fun after his homer either. Sliding to make a play in the field for Trevor May, there was some added flair on the out as well. There’s no denying a hot Rosario is a great development going into the postseason, and there’s also no denying this man is feeling himself right now. https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1177024908469125121 Cleveland currently trails the Chicago White Sox by a 4-1 tally in the third inning. A loss would allow the Twins to pop the bubbly for the first time since 2010. This team is two wins shy of 100, and the century mark is something they haven’t accomplished since 1965. Tomorrow will likely be a hangover-induced lineup, but the Royals should expect to get the business this weekend in Kansas City. A date with the New York Yankees looks imminent in the American League Division Series and this club is looking to erase demons Twins Territorians are haunted by. Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days Next Three Games Thu @ DET, 12:10 PM CT (TBD vs Zimmermann) Fri @ KC, 7:15 PM CT (TBD vs Skoglund) Sat @ KC, 6:15 PM CT (TBD vs Sparkman) Last Game Twins Game Recap (9/24): Odorizzi's Gem Cuts the Twins Magic Number to 2

I took a look at how I’d construct the 25-man roster for the ALDS earlier this month, and now there’ve been some significant changes that make a shuffle more than necessary. Barring any further injuries, this is the group that I’d suggest go to war with Rocco Baldelli. Catchers (2): Jason Castro, Mitch Garver Changes: None There’s been no developments here to suggest a change makes any sense. The Twins have had the most productive catching tandem in baseball, and Mitch Garver has hit like a man possessed for another significant stretch. He left a game this weekend with a hip impingement, but it sounds like some quick rest should be enough to get him over the hump. They’ll be locked in and ready to go both at the plate, and behind it, no matter who Minnesota faces. Infield (6): C.J. Cron, Luis Arraez, Jonathan Schoop, Jorge Polanco, Marwin Gonzalez, Miguel Sano Changes: Ehire Adrianza out with an oblique injury Unfortunately for the Twins, they lost a versatile asset when Ehire Adrianza pulled an oblique muscle. There has been talk that he would hope to not miss the rest of the season, but time is running out and those things don’t typically heal in a quick fashion. Arraez and Gonzalez give Baldelli plenty of flexibility on their own, and Luis having pushed his way into the starting role allows for some thump out of Schoop’s bat off the bench. It is worth noting that Rocco Baldelli mentioned Adrianza looking good, but he's "not sure if he's close to being ready to play." I'd imagine Ehire would need game action this week to be included. If he is, Jake Cave could be the odd man out with the Twins opting for non-traditional outfielders in relief. That does seem like a pretty big long shot. Outfield (4): Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, LaMonte Wade, Jake Cave Changes: Byron Buxton done with labrum surgery, and Ian Miller left out There’s no replacing a guy like Byron Buxton, and the Twins have had to grapple with that reality for weeks now. He’s not going to be there defensively for a pitching staff that loves him, and his bat is now out of the lineup as well. Minnesota added Miller to the 40-man roster as a speed guy off the bench, but it’s Wade that may have forced him out. LaMonte has gotten healthy and takes as good at-bats as stud Luis Arraez. Recently writing up a speciality Minnesota will need to pick for the postseason, it’s probably Wade’s on base skills that outweigh an additional 90 feet on a stolen base. Over the final week of the season the Twins will want to get both Kepler and Cave back going again. They’ve dealt with injury, have sprinkled in some playing time, but also need to work in routine at-bats. Eddie trending upwards is a positive development at this time of year, and if he can continue to shrink his zone then opposing pitchers will have a much tougher time exploiting his weaknesses. Designated Hitter (1): Nelson Cruz Changes: None No surprise here, Mr. Boomstick is the living embodiment of the Fountain of Youth. 400 dingers to his credit, and 40 at the age of 39, the Twins are enjoying one of the greatest seasons from a free agent ever. He’s coming back next year at a reduced rate and there should be ample opportunity for him to make an impact on and off the field in the postseason. Rotation (3): Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Randy Dobnak Changes: Michael Pineda was handed a PED suspension, Martin Perez has been ineffective and moved to the pen You probably need four starters for a postseason series unless you’ve got an elite arm or two. Unfortunately for the Twins they have two guys that they’d be expected to turn to, and a complete wild card. Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi are locks, although they’ll need the former to be the best version of himself. An additional starter is up in the air, but I like the proposal of Randy Dobnak. He’s been great for Minnesota in 2019 and the unfamiliarity for opposing hitters could be to his benefit. A lefty doesn’t make a ton of sense given the strength both Houston and New York have on that side of the plate. Dobnak could pitch game two allowing the Twins to utilize their bullpen more aggressively before the scheduled day off. If Baldelli’s squad can steal a win on the road, or return home having yet to lose, they’d be sitting pretty when attempting to advance to the ALCS. Bullpen (9): Taylor Rogers, Sergio Romo, Tyler Duffey, Trevor May, Zack Littell, Brusdar Graterol, Kyle Gibson, Cody Stashak, Martin Perez Changes: Dyson is done for the year, Gibson, Stashak, and Perez all added The first six names of this group seem like obvious locks to me. They represent the core of a group that has been very, very good in the second half. It’s the last three that are more uncertain but they each seem to fill a need. Kyle Gibson has struggled significantly with his health, and then his production because of it, down the stretch. If the Twins deem him healthy though, it makes a good amount of sense to have him as a presence in the pen and a veteran arm ready to go. Should he be deemed unhealthy, that’s probably a spot for Lewis Thorpe, or an opportunity to squeak someone like Willians Astudillo onto the bench. Stashak has been nothing short of dominant in his time with the Twins, and while he’d be throwing on the biggest stage yet, the stuff has played. Needing another lefty, it's the starter Perez who comes into play. Despite his ineffectiveness, he's still been strong against lefties and has worked in relief before. Initially expected to be a part of the 2020 plans, he still probably gets a chance in the Postseason. A roster of 12 pitchers and 13 hitters is the split that Baldelli should find solace in. Nick looked at the pen options yesterday and came up with 12 openings as well. Here’s to hoping for a clean bill of health over the final week, and smooth sailing so that optimal decisions can be made. Minnesota has been forced into enough change due to unfortunate circumstances thus far. Adding to that this close to the October run isn’t something anyone should want to deal with. What would your final roster for October look like? Where do you differ and what do you agree on? Share your thoughts below.

Brief Overview: The Tigers have managed to win just 46 games despite playing 155 thus far. A winning percentage below 30% in baseball is laughable at best, and this team is worse than both assumed bottom-feeders in Baltimore and Miami. Ron Gardenhire has had little to work with, and has gotten less from them. He’ll be back in 2020, along with Miguel Cabrera’s anchor of a contract, but this team is hapless in their current construction. What They Do Well: It’s not a surprise that a team this bad would have little going for it. We’ve harped on their deficiencies in this space all season long so continuing to beat that dead horse does little for me. They are in the bottom third across all facets of the game, and while the farm system has some big names, no significant contributors (sorry Jake Rogers) are currently up with the big club. To really fish for something they’ve done well in 2019, there’s probably no better place to look than their record against the Cleveland Indians. Detroit managed to go 1-18 with a -78 run differential against Terry Francona’s club. Obviously that’s not good at all, but you almost have to be trying to stink up the place that badly against a common opponent. With little place else to turn, the Tigers were great at losing to the Indians this year. What They Do Not Do Well: As the flip side of the section above this is also a bloodbath for the home club. In fielding they are 26th and dead last in batting, I suppose they can be proud of their 20th ranking in terms of pitching. Minnesota needs a few homers to catch the Yankees for the MLB single season record, and Detroit should provide them in spades. During a three-game series earlier this month the Tigers coughed up 10 longballs to the Bombers. Spencer Turnbull has been an arm of intrigue in 2019 for Detroit, but he’s 3-15 with a 4.66 ERA. Wednesday’s starter Daniel Norris was a once-heralded arm but has taken his lumps as well, going 3-13 with a 4.58 ERA. Sweeps are never an easy ask, regardless of the competition, but Detroit will do its best to provide the Twins ample opportunity. Individuals of Note: Former Twins farmhand Niko Goodrum has actually provided the greatest fWAR for Detroit this season, but his year is over due to a groin strain. Victor Reyes is one of the lone productive bats in the lineup at this point. He’s been worth 1.6 fWAR in just over 60 games this season. Although he is batting .304 on the year, his .772 OPS leaves a bit to be desired. The staff ace Matthew Boyd won’t be seen having just taken a turn, but the aforementioned Turnbull will throw. He’s responsible for the second highest fWAR on the pitching staff and has a FIP that suggests a bit better numbers than what he’s accounted for. Of the trio that Minnesota will square off against it’s Turnbull who keeps the ball in the park the best. Recent History: These two clubs have not seen each other since the end of August. A four-game series in Detroit was won by the Twins dropping only game two. On the year Minnesota is 11-5 against Detroit. Recent Trajectories: The Twins are 7-3 over their last 10 games while the Tigers are an opposite 3-7. Minnesota hasn’t lost a series to a sub-.500 team since dropping two of three to the White Sox on August 21st. Detroit last won a series on July 31st taking two of three against the Angels. Pitching Matchups: Tuesday: Odorizzi vs Turnbull Wednesday: TBD vs Norris Thursday: TBD vs Zimmermann Ending Thoughts: Detroit is terrible and the Twins have an eye on the postseason. I’d like to see Mitch Garver be available this week even though he didn’t initially make the trip to the Motor City. Max Kepler playing in a regular capacity would be good for his playoff outlook as well. Minnesota is three positive outcomes from an AL Central division title, and 100 wins is in reach as well. A sweep here would go a long way to positioning them well for both opportunities.

As the Houston Astros and New York Yankees battle back and forth for the number one seed, it’s the Bronx Bombers that Minnesotans should be welcoming. History can be cast aside as no one currently on this roster cares about previous futility. Aaron Boone’s squad has plenty of warts on the bump and the Twins lineup can go toe-to-toe with anyone. No matter who they face though, what happens in a late game situation when Baldelli needs to work some magic? Is it speed, or is it patience? Minnesota acquired Ian Miller from the Seattle Mariners in early August. He was a 14th-round pick in the 2013 draft and had yet to debut in the big leagues at 27-years-old. Not a top prospect by any means, Miller provided outfield depth on the farm but this move was about a specific asset. He’s fast and can steal a base. Even before Byron Buxton had his season come to an end due to shoulder surgery, the likelihood that he’d be available in a late game situation off the bench isn’t good (because he’d be starting). Miller fits the mold of a Terrance Gore type, and that’s exactly why the speedy outfielder (Gore) finds late season opportunity again in 2019, with the Yankees. Miller has stolen 243 bases in the minor leagues while being caught 51 times. That’s a success rate of 83% and puts him into the threshold of the additional 90 feet being a worthy gamble. Unfortunately he also has just a .340 OBP on the farm and isn’t typically heralded for his ability to get on base. Taking over on the basepaths may be beneficial, but could come at the cost of an additional at-bat later in the game. Despite being capable in the outfield there are a good deal of question marks outside of his ability to swipe bags. The aforementioned Gore has been inserted into nine playoff games over seven seasons. He’s stolen five bases, being caught once and has scored three runs. The Twins made the prudent move by adding him to the 40-man roster. He’s now eligible for the postseason, and they continued down their forward-thinking path at the beginning of September. Baldelli’s squad has stolen just three bases since the All-Star break though, and a team so capable of scoring from first base may not deem the gamble to second as a risk worth taking. On the flip side of the coin, I can’t help but be reminded of the at-bat Luis Arraez took in mid-July against Edwin Diaz. Regardless of the closer’s struggles this season, Minnesota’s rookie stepped in at an 0-2 count against a dominant arm and took a walk. Having the ability to generate a very strong at-bat against some of baseball’s best pen arms could prove invaluable during a big situation in October. Fortunately for Minnesota Arraez has worked his way into the starting lineup, but LaMonte Wade could represent a similar asset to consider. Despite missing a significant portion of his big league time this year due to injury, he hasn’t missed a beat in the time that he has played. Wade owns a career .389 OBP in the minors and has walked in 20% of his big league plate appearances. He’s struck out just three times in 41 opportunities, and has faced three-ball counts 32% of the time he’s stepped in. Despite a .161 batting average, he’s bolstered it with a .366 OBP and routinely makes pitchers work. Like Miller, Wade too plays the outfield and could take over for a starter as a defensive replacement. He’s got the ability to play all three outfield spots, and despite not being a speedster, can hold down all three roles at an above average clip. The decision here is an interesting one because it deals with two parts of the game that Minnesota has left largely unattended in 2019. The Twins have the fifth best OBP in baseball, but they’ve taken only the 18th most walks in the game. When constructing this lineup over the winter it was apparent that power production was a focus, and we’ve seen that play out at a record setting pace. No one has stolen fewer bases than Minnesota’s 26, and is postseason play the time to start looking for 90 extra feet? Both of these players probably found themselves on the outside looking in when the outfield was in its healthiest state. Now with some holes, the Twins will look to create opportunity through utility on the fringes. Miller and Wade present opportunity, but which way will Minnesota go, and will they consider either of them at all?

For months there was a growing notion that the Twins would make a move. This club looked the part and jumped out to a big divisional lead. With a relief corps that could use some reinforcements, the front office would almost assuredly deal from depth to bolster the bullpen. Although it didn’t happen in as timely of a matter as some may have hoped, and there could have been some hiccups avoided mid-summer, moves came. Two veteran arms with high ceilings would be added to a back end that already had some promise. But then, two became one, and a handful emerged. Dyson was the best reliever dealt at the deadline. There were bigger names that weren’t moved, but it was he who had previous closing experience and top-notch stuff. He has since been shut down and it looks like his season may be over. Romo and his wipe-out slider are still getting the job done, and he’s stuck in high leverage as expected. One of the two moves worked, but it’s the ones set into motion many months before that are truly paying off. Back in February I suggested that the Twins would win 92 games en route to a Central division crown. Chief among the reasons was the revamped coaching staff and infrastructure within the organization. The current group is a collaborative power that is constantly changing on the fly and looking for an opportunity to exploit the next level out of each player. For some, it takes longer to unlock then others, but if there’s a way this contingent of coaches is going to find the right buttons. There’s no more apparent area currently reflective of that then the bullpen. Since the trade deadline the Twins have posted 2.9 fWAR (2nd in MLB). Their 2.06 BB/9 is the lowest in baseball as is the 3.58 FIP that suggests they’re even better than a fifth best 3.67 ERA. The 1.54 WPA is fifth in baseball and one of just 12 teams currently putting up positive numbers. No one has opponents chasing more than the Twins' 35.2% and the arms they’re doing it with are virtually all home grown. You already know Taylor Rogers is an absolute menace. He’s a lefty with high velocity stuff that doesn’t care what side of the plate you stand on. Tyler Duffey owns 0.8 fWAR since August 1st and hasn’t given up a run since July 23 (a streak of 18.2 IP). He has a ridiculous 30/5 K/BB in that time, and looks the part of the elite closer that Minnesota drafted out of Rice way back in 2012. Looking for his calling with the Twins, there’s no denying Trevor May appears to have found it. Despite an ugly breaking pitch against Cleveland, and one that Rafael Devers beat him on in Boston, his 20 innings since the deadline have been exceptional. May has generated 0.5 fWAR and has allowed just those two earned runs in 20.0 IP. He has a 25/4 K/BB and opposing batters have mustered a sad .325 OPS against him. Arguably the most impressive work comes from the guy that the least was expected of. Still just 23-years-old, Zack Littell was asked to take a game against the Rays on the chin in May. He went back to Triple-A and transitioned to relief. Ramping up the velocity in shorter stints, he showcased his stuff in brief call-ups throughout the year. Now adding the time up, he’s pitched 24.2 innings in relief since June. Littell has allowed just two runs, both in the same outing, and has 21 strikeouts to his credit. He’s still working through command issues at times, but the .209 batting average against is exceptional. With just two weeks left until postseason baseball, Minnesota’s earliest bugaboo has now become an area of strength. This isn’t a lineup that needs to pad a starter’s lead bridging a gap to Taylor Rogers. The Twins are something like six or seven deep in quality arms, and none of those guys could care less who is in the opposing batter's box. Opponents may not have heard of anyone aside from the elder statesmen Romo, but this is a group that will generate name recognition as they turn from the plate watching the ball go around the horn following any given at-bat. There’s no denying that Rocco Baldelli is going to need a healthy dose of mix and match in October. Only the Astros go deep enough to throw starting cares to the wind. Teams like Minnesota will need to get what they can from the first man on the bump and then turn it over to the reinforcements behind the wall. Fortunately for this group, everyone from Baldelli to Wes Johnson, Jeremy Hefner, and the entirety of the minor league pitching support staff deserves a significant pat on the back for the speed with which they turned a deficiency into an asset.