Hrbowski

Increase in velocity depends on the pitcher, but Carlson will add to his fastball. I wouldn't be surprised to see him sitting around 97 mph in the future. I don't prefer one breaking pitch over another. If the pitcher locates it well and gets swings and misses he obviously has something working for him. Yes, those other pitches you mentioned usually develop later than most, but you can get a good feel for who will be able to do it and who won't.

http://www.the3rdmanin.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/2017-MLB-Draft.png Sam Carlson is a right-handed pitcher out of Burnsville High School in Minnesota who is committed to the Florida Gators. Carlson is listed at 6’4” and 195 pounds, with a projectable body that will add a lot of strength as he gets older. Because his season started later than most, scouts have gotten a later look at him than some of the other top prep pitchers. Nevertheless, they have come away impressed with his calm presence on the mound and advanced feel for pitching. Carlson has risen swiftly up draft boards this spring, and after scouting him this comes as no surprise. Carlson’s pitching repertoire consists of three above average pitches that he can throw for strikes. He throws his fastball in the 92-94 mph range, which he commands down in the zone very well. His slider is good enough to be an out pitch, sitting in the low 80s with some bite to it. His changeup has good deception, and is one of the best among pitchers in this year’s draft class. His understanding of pitching elevates him over most high school pitchers across the country, and there are no concerns about him being just a thrower. Carlson has above average control, which can be attributed to clean pitching mechanics. There is not a whole lot of effort in his delivery, and he has nice arm action. The team that drafts him will likely have him use his lower half more, but that is a natural part of the development process and is not something he needs to worry about in high school. As he matures his velocity will get better, which paired with his secondary offerings makes him a likely middle of the rotation pitcher down the road with a ceiling of a number two starter. Pitching in a cold-weather state has caused him to fly under the radar, but when he reaches the professional level he could surprise many. Many teams have Carlson near the top of their board, including the Mariners, Giants, and Blue Jays. Teams that pick in the top ten that have interest are the Braves and Brewers, who both have histories of taking high school players. The Pirates have been keeping a close eye on him, and since people are having a tough time pegging their potential pick we could see a surprise there. As the draft approaches, more information will come out about which teams like him the most. You could speculate all day on who will draft Carlson, but I think that he could go higher than what most publications are predicting. Overall, Carlson should be in the conversation as the best prep pitcher in the class. Hunter Greene and Shane Baz receive more hype, but Carlson has better pitchability than either of them. The Florida commit is also a good hitter, so if he makes it to college he will be a two-way player. Since he will be chosen in the first round his chance to hit at a higher level will likely be in a National League ballpark, but that is a ways down the road. When Carlson hears his name called on June 12th, he will be one of the top picks from Minnesota in draft history.

I don't like the Cliff Lee comp for McKay at all. I asked one AL executive if Jon Lester was the best comp for McKay, and he said that made sense. Bukauskas is my personal favorite, but his lack of physicality make scouts wary of him. I really like Mac Gore, and I have heard from scouts that he is the only pitcher who is better than Sam Carlson at this point, with the other big names being referred to as throwers.

I don't care what O'Leary says about pitching. He is even worse when it comes to analyzing hitters. I have my own personal opinions about pitching mechanics, but it varies from pitcher to pitcher because of body type. I mostly look for how well the upper and lower bodies are synchronized, and ignore whether something looks high effort or not. Some pitchers look smooth with their delivery, but have flaws that are hard for a lot of people to pick up. Others are high effort, but other than that they have a fundamentally sound delivery.

Depends on who else is interested in him.

High school arm and college bat. They really like Shane Baz, and I think that they could try to get him to fall to #35. If they can't, Sam Carlson or Hagen Danner could be grabbed there. They also have been fans of Tanner Houck for a long time, but he probably won't fall that far.

Lance Lynn was by no means a control guy while he was pitching in the SEC. Also, Danny Hultzen had elite control in college, was a lefty, and had similar stuff to McKay, but he never made it to the majors.

I will try to get into contact with the UNC guys.

Enlow could be a tough sign.

Sorry that I missed this comment. Smith only has 2 stolen bases this year.

They actually had lengthier careers than the more physical pitchers who were ranked higher than them in the same drafts. Greg Reynolds and Taylor Jungmann were less durable than Lincecum and Gray. Another reminder, very few pitchers make it past the age of thirty.

http://s3.amazonaws.com/media.dth/28424_0412_baseballvsncstate_gargan196p.jpg J.B. Bukauskas is a right-handed pitcher for the University of North Carolina who has the best pitching repertoire available in this year’s draft. Bukauskas is listed at 6’0” and 195 pounds, and with his delivery and pitch mix he reminds me of a smaller Matt Cain. A native of Virginia, Bukauskas played high school baseball for the Stone Bridge Bulldogs, where he quickly ascended draft boards during his senior year. In 2014, he was drafted by the Arizona Diamondbacks in the 20th round after asking teams to not draft him, and he ultimately made the predictable decision to attend college. With his electric pitching style and presence on the mound, he has the potential to separate himself from all other players in this year’s class. Bukauskas’s repertoire consists of three pitches: Fastballs, sliders, and changeups, with all being above average or average. His fastball reaches the upper nineties, and he works with it on both sides of the plate. His slider is nothing short of nasty, and he can throw it at ninety miles per hour with the bottom falling out, making it nearly unhittable. His changeup will need the most improvement, but it should at least be an average major league offering. His command of his pitches has improved throughout his years at college, and will likely get even better. The main concerns that scouts have about Bukauskas are his violent delivery and small size, which leads some to conclude that he will end up in a bullpen. He has already diminished the effort he uses while pitching, but has still managed to maintain his velocity, and with the right development he could continue to do this. His control has also improved with the changes in his delivery, and his walk rates have gone down every year in college. His size should not be a big concern, since many other pitchers with similar builds have had a significant amount of success in the big leagues, including Tim Lincecum, Sonny Gray, and Marcus Stroman. Even if Bukauskas moves to a bullpen, he could be an elite reliever. Bukauskas could potentially be selected first in the draft, but the talk involving him and the Twins has subsided as the draft gets nearer. Right now, it looks as if the Twins will take a pitcher, and Bukauskas has a higher ceiling than any other college pitcher available. Most people think the Twins will take either a high upside player like Hunter Greene, or a potentially quick mover like Brendan McKay, but Bukauskas could be the perfect combination of the two, albeit a less physical one. Most right-handed pitchers who are selected first overall are much taller than Bukauskas, with recent examples being Kris Benson, Matt Anderson, Bryan Bullington, Luke Hochevar, Stephen Strasburg, Gerrit Cole, and Mark Appel. Few of them had big league success, making me wonder if height is the best way to separate hard throwing pitchers. Bukauskas has been overlooked by many so far, but that could quickly change in the future. His athleticism and competitive nature make him fun to watch, and he has performed consistently against some of the best college competition. Some teams think that the injury risk with Bukauskas is too great to select him, but injuries are something you can get with any pitcher. The team that roles the dice and decides to take the undersized righty could get a future number one starter. Regardless of risk, Bukauskas is the best player available.

Not publicly.

Brendan McKay is a left-handed pitcher and first baseman who plays college baseball for the Louisville Cardinals. McKay is listed at 6’2” and 220 pounds, and has a body and delivery that reminds some of Jon Lester. The Pennsylvania native was overlooked in the 2014 draft, due to his commitment to Louisville and getting less exposure than prep players from states with warmer weather. Three years ago, the San Diego Padres selected him as a pitcher in the 34th round. There is little doubt that he is one of the most intriguing players in this class. McKay’s improved performance as a hitter has been more surprising than his pitching, and he is one of the better hitters available. His load starts with his front foot, and since he only has average bat speed he could have trouble catching up to big league fastballs. He also lets his weight get to far forward towards the pitcher, and his swing is not made for deep flyballs. McKay will only hit for average power at best and is not a good defensive player, so teams might be afraid to select him as an everyday player. He has continued to improve throughout his college career, so some might be willing to take a gamble on him as a hitter. As a pitcher, McKay has dominated college level hitters, and is durable enough to pitch in a big league rotation. He does not have one pitch that will blow you away, but has command of his low nineties fastball along with his curveball, which is his best pitch. His changeup needs work, but some scouts think that he can improve it enough to make it big league average. McKay will likely end up in the middle of a rotation, and is viewed as having one of the highest floors in the draft. The consensus views him as a better pitcher than hitter, and that is where he will likely play in the majors. When the Twins have the first pick in June, McKay will be one of the players that they consider drafting. The industry believes that at the current moment he is their favorite player, although that could change quickly. If the Twins select McKay it could be either as a pitcher or hitter, but a pitcher is more likely to be their pick than a hitter. Advanced college players have a history of being selected first overall, and McKay is already close to his ceiling. His combination of being a two-way player and having had success in college could make it hard for the Twins to pass. Brendan McKay is truly an intriguing player, but he is not going to wow evaluators with tools or his pitching repertoire. He may be better suited for the National League, where he could both hit and pitch, but it would be unwise for a team to use him in both roles during the development process. Some view him as a low-risk player because he could move over to first if he does not develop as a pitcher, but that itself comes with a lot of risk. Taking McKay as a hitter would be a bigger gamble, since he is further behind there, and it would be harder for him to transition back to the mound if he cannot hit in the pros. The team that drafts McKay will get a player who could make it to the big leagues quickly.

Thanks for asking questions! I really do not care about defensive ability when I rank prospects. If Smith was a centerfielder he would be the #1 pick, but since he plays first base people are overlooking his hitting abilities. It brings to mind Kyle Schwarber, who was ranked low by most publications because they did not think he could catch in the majors. With Lewis we have the reverse, an extremely athletic player who some scouts think can play both shortstop and centerfield. I think that Lewis will have a hard time adjusting to a wood bat, which I will cover in my post about him. I believe that Greene is a very good player who is having his status unfairly elevated. I had similar opinions on Jay Groome and Riley Pint last year, and there is no reason to believe he is any better than they were. I have reservations about high floor/low ceiling players. Danny Hultzen is someone who comes to mind when people talk about Brendan McKay. I am going to publish my post on McKay today, in case you are interested.

http://www.the3rdmanin.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/2017-MLB-Draft.png #1 - J.B. Bukauskas – rhp – North Carolina #2 - Pavin Smith – 1b - Virginia #3- MacKenzie Gore – lhp – North Carolina High School #4 - Kyle Wright – rhp - Vanderbilt #5 - Hunter Greene – rhp – California High School #6 - Sam Carlson – rhp – Minnesota High School #7 - Brendan McKay – lhp/1b - Louisville #8 - D.L. Hall – lhp – Georgia High School #9 - Jake Burger – 3b – Missouri State #10 - Nick Pratto – 1b – California High School #11 - Jeren Kendall – OF - Vanderbilt #12 - Austin Beck – OF – North Carolina High School #13 - Royce Lewis – OF – California High School #14 - Jacob Heatherly – lhp – Alabama High School #15 - Tanner Houck – rhp - Missouri #16 - Shane Baz – rhp – Texas High School #17 - Alex Faedo – rhp - Florida #18 - Keston Hiura – OF/2b – UC Irvine #19 - Griffin Canning – rhp - UCLA #20 - Nick Allen – ss – California High School #21 - Heliot Ramos – OF – Puerto Rico #22 - Hagen Danner – rhp – California High School #23 - Clarke Schmidt – rhp – South Carolina #24 - Tristan Beck – rhp - Stanford #25 - Greg Deichmann – 3b - LSU

Rooker is a junior. The Twins took him last year as a draft eligible sophomore.

I also saw that he did not have Austin Beck or J.B. Bukauskas on his list, but the Twins are considering both.

Carlson just started his season, and I think that he will continue to rise up draft boards. Carlson is probably as good as Greene, but he has way less exposure. At this point Greene is a thrower, while Carlson has an advanced feel for pitching with both an above average slider and changeup. Greene's fastball is just a bit faster than Carlson's, but Carlson has better command of his. I think that if Carlson had pitched in South Cal and Greene had pitched in Minnesota we would have seen Carlson higher than Greene on most draft boards.

Innings pitched, hits, runs, walks, and strikeouts.

By the way, MLB has their top 100 prospect list out. Sam Carlson is #15, and Mike Baumann is #99. Carlson can reach the upper nineties with his fastball and has above average secondary offerings, and since his season just started we could see a MacKenzie Gore like rise to the top of the draft. Baumann played high school baseball for the Mahtomedi Zephyrs and was drafted by the Twins out of high school. There have been a lot of really good players to come out of Mahtomedi in recent years, and one of the top 2018 draft prospects pitched there as well.

That would be a dumb way to assess the three teams that are picking first. None of those organizations have had their front offices around long enough to have any track record.

I think we could get him in the 3rd round. I would much prefer Greg Deichmann if we were to take a college hitter.

McKay is a #3 starter. Greene has as many mechanical concerns as Bukauskas, and will take much longer to develop.