Vanimal46

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ANND Welcome! To Minnesota Twins Whine Line: Detective Edition! I'm your LEAD Investigator, Vanimal, along with my trusty sidekick, the intern. Since we last checked in, both of us set down the PS4 controllers, put MLB The Show back in the case, and studied for our Private Investigator license! In the real world, we noticed that it's January 30th, and 8 out of the top 10 free agents have still yet to sign! It's a strange, boring off-season... There's been several STRONG takes about why this is happening... And we're no different! We decided to put on our Deerstalker, and dive deep into the REAL reason why recent off-seasons are boring...
 
Collusion: It happened once before, so it could happen again, right? That's what we thought too! Until we put it to the test using real world examples... Have you ever arranged a conference call with 30 busy people before? It's NEARLY impossible to do! Plus, they would waste countless hours of time! Owners will be talking over each other, waiting for others to take themselves off mute, jumping on the line 25 minutes late, and needing to "circle back at a later time." All of that sounds exhausting....
 
Whine Line Verdict: False.
 
Waiting for a Sale: As consumers, we're accustomed to Black Friday, Cyber Monday, 4th of July BLOWOUTS, or "just because!" sales. Doesn't it feel good to purchase what you wanted, for a 30% discount! Of course it does! General Managers are humans too, and they want to feel like they got a discount... Now these days he could look at MLBTradeRumors, FanGraphs, even the Twins Daily Handbook to find salary projections of free agents. Where's the excitement?! The THRILL of the hunt?! Perhaps they're waiting for their Cyber Monday sale....
 
Whine Line Verdict: Certainly possible!
 
Too Many Options: Typically at this time of year, 1 or 2 of the top free agents are left unsigned... If that! This year, there are 4 to 8 times as many options! Is it possible that General Managers are frozen in fear because there's too many players to choose from? We took our investigation on the road to get to the bottom of it!
 
ANNND Welcome back! We're broadcasting LIVE from the Cheesecake Factory! That's right, the home of a 20 page menu.... If you can't find something to eat here, you're not looking hard enough! In order to test this theory, the intern and I gave ourselves a 30 minute window to decide what to order...
 
WAITER: "Here are your waters, gentleman. Do you have any questions about the menu? Or know what you want?"
VAN: "I think we need a little bit of time. There's so many options here. Any specials?"
WAITER: "Today's soup of the day is split-pea, and we also have a Philly cheese steak with your choice of fries, salad, fruit, onion rings, or vegetable."
VAN: "Wow, even the sides have a bunch of options to choose from... Okay, we need some time."
 
8 minutes later...
 
WAITER: "Are you ready to order? Questions at all?"
VAN: "Yeah, a few questions. I'm debating between the Avocado BLT, Philly cheese steak, Chicken Parmesan, or Chicken Enchiladas. What would you choose?"
WAITER: "Hmm, well, our Philly is one of the most popular orders today. The Chicken Parmesan is okay, but I would recommend our Spaghetti and Meatballs over that. And frankly, you're better off going somewhere else for Mexican food."
VAN: "That helps... And the Cobb Salad?"
WAITER: "I mean, it's a salad.... So... How about you sir, are you ready?"
INTERN: "I'll have the uh, chi.... No. Not that. Umm.... Can you come back to me?"
WAITER: "Guys, I do have other tables to tend to. I'll come back later."
 
13 minutes later....
 
WAITER: "Okay, how about now?"
INTERN: "I.... I...... I JUST CAN'T DECIDE! Please, come back to me, okay?"
WAITER: "Are you crying, sir?"
INTERN: "It's your fault! There isn't a perfect option to order... EVERYTHING has flaws!"
WAITER: "Okay, this is getting weird. What about you, sir?"
VAN: "I have narrowed it down to 2 items, and I will get back to you by the end of the week."
WAITER: "This ISN'T how this works, sir. Look, guys, it's only lunch. You're just spending some money now... It's not like you're trading me your watch, or I don't know... a top prospect like Nick Gordon in order to eat. So what do you say? Let's figure this out before my shift is over, okay?"
VAN & INTERN: "Wow... This HAS to be how Falvine feels signing free agents.... I've seen the light!"
 
Whine Line Verdict: TRUE

http://gentlemint-media.s3.amazonaws.com/images/2012/04/18/6745f59b.jpg.505x650_q85.jpg

 
 
ANND Welcome! To Minnesota Twins Whine Line: Detective Edition! I'm your LEAD Investigator, Vanimal, along with my trusty sidekick, the intern. Since we last checked in, both of us set down the PS4 controllers, put MLB The Show back in the case, and studied for our Private Investigator license! In the real world, we noticed that it's January 30th, and 8 out of the top 10 free agents have still yet to sign! It's a strange, boring off-season... There's been several STRONG takes about why this is happening... And we're no different! We decided to put on our Deerstalker, and dive deep into the REAL reason why recent off-seasons are boring...
 
Collusion: It happened once before, so it could happen again, right? That's what we thought too! Until we put it to the test using real world examples... Have you ever arranged a conference call with 30 busy people before? It's NEARLY impossible to do! Plus, they would waste countless hours of time! Owners will be talking over each other, waiting for others to take themselves off mute, jumping on the line 25 minutes late, and needing to "circle back at a later time." All of that sounds exhausting....
 
Whine Line Verdict: False.
 
Waiting for a Sale: As consumers, we're accustomed to Black Friday, Cyber Monday, 4th of July BLOWOUTS, or "just because!" sales. Doesn't it feel good to purchase what you wanted, for a 30% discount! Of course it does! General Managers are humans too, and they want to feel like they got a discount... Now these days he could look at MLBTradeRumors, FanGraphs, even the Twins Daily Handbook to find salary projections of free agents. Where's the excitement?! The THRILL of the hunt?! Perhaps they're waiting for their Cyber Monday sale....
 
Whine Line Verdict: Certainly possible!
 
Too Many Options: Typically at this time of year, 1 or 2 of the top free agents are left unsigned... If that! This year, there are 4 to 8 times as many options! Is it possible that General Managers are frozen in fear because there's too many players to choose from? We took our investigation on the road to get to the bottom of it!
 
ANNND Welcome back! We're broadcasting LIVE from the Cheesecake Factory! That's right, the home of a 20 page menu.... If you can't find something to eat here, you're not looking hard enough! In order to test this theory, the intern and I gave ourselves a 30 minute window to decide what to order...
 
WAITER: "Here are your waters, gentleman. Do you have any questions about the menu? Or know what you want?"
VAN: "I think we need a little bit of time. There's so many options here. Any specials?"
WAITER: "Today's soup of the day is split-pea, and we also have a Philly cheese steak with your choice of fries, salad, fruit, onion rings, or vegetable."
VAN: "Wow, even the sides have a bunch of options to choose from... Okay, we need some time."
 
8 minutes later...
 
WAITER: "Are you ready to order? Questions at all?"
VAN: "Yeah, a few questions. I'm debating between the Avocado BLT, Philly cheese steak, Chicken Parmesan, or Chicken Enchiladas. What would you choose?"
WAITER: "Hmm, well, our Philly is one of the most popular orders today. The Chicken Parmesan is okay, but I would recommend our Spaghetti and Meatballs over that. And frankly, you're better off going somewhere else for Mexican food."
VAN: "That helps... And the Cobb Salad?"
WAITER: "I mean, it's a salad.... So... How about you sir, are you ready?"
INTERN: "I'll have the uh, chi.... No. Not that. Umm.... Can you come back to me?"
WAITER: "Guys, I do have other tables to tend to. I'll come back later."
 
13 minutes later....
 
WAITER: "Okay, how about now?"
INTERN: "I.... I...... I JUST CAN'T DECIDE! Please, come back to me, okay?"
WAITER: "Are you crying, sir?"
INTERN: "It's your fault! There isn't a perfect option to order... EVERYTHING has flaws!"
WAITER: "Okay, this is getting weird. What about you, sir?"
VAN: "I have narrowed it down to 2 items, and I will get back to you by the end of the week."
WAITER: "This ISN'T how this works, sir. Look, guys, it's only lunch. You're just spending some money now... It's not like you're trading me your watch, or I don't know... a top prospect like Nick Gordon in order to eat. So what do you say? Let's figure this out before my shift is over, okay?"
VAN & INTERN: "Wow... This HAS to be how Falvine feels signing free agents.... I've seen the light!"
 
Whine Line Verdict: TRUE

On Saturday, the Twins announced that young pitcher Jose Berrios would be demoted to Rochester to start the season. The reason, according to manager Paul Molitor, was "that the lack of work and consistency of work ... to try and rush the buildup here in the last ten days to try and get him ready to try and be in that spot didn’t make a lot of sense to me.”
 
Does this explanation pass muster?
 
Consider Phil Hughes is a given for the rotation, and that Berrios and Hughes have been on roughly the same pitching schedule this spring:
 
Feb 25, Hughes: 2.0 innings
Feb 26, Berrios: 2.0 innings
 
March 2, Hughes: 2.0 innings
March 3, Berrios: 2.0 innings
 
It was at this point that Berrios went to play for Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic. Meanwhile, Hughes pitched in an intra-squad game on March 7. I will assume Berrios stayed loose or played some catch during that same time.
 
Berrios and Hughes then made starts on the same day:
 
March 12, Hughes: 5.0 innings
March 12, Berrios: 5.0 innings
 
After this, Berrios did not pitch again until the final, while Hughes made a start on March 17 for 5.0 more innings. However, Hector Santiago, teammate of Berrios on Puerto Rico, did say that Berrios threw a 55-pitch session of live batting practice during this time.
 
Interestingly, both pitchers pitched again on the 22nd:
 
March 22, Hughes: 2.0 innings
March 22, Berrios: 1.2 innings
 
This was the game Berrios struck out Giancarlo Stanton and Jonathan Lucroy with the nasty slurve-curve he throws:
 

 
And here we sit, heading into Monday March 27. Both Berrios and Hughes would figure to pitch again in a day or two. In my opinion, if anyone needs to be stretched out, it's Hughes, who reported tingling in his fingers between innings last season, then had shoulder surgery.
 
Obviously we are not privy to some of the things that goes on within the clubhouse and in private. I am also no pitching coach and do not know how pitchers prepare except for what I read on the Internets. However, the explanation that Berrios can't get "stretched out" does not hold up, in my opinion. Will Molitor and the Twins name a date for Berrios's return or the number of starts they plan to give him, or when the expect him to finally be stretched out?
 
Berrios threw 40 pitches in his last outing the 22nd. How much more stretching out would Berrios need?
 
How about something like this:
March 22, 40 pitches (already complete)
Tues. March 28, starting pitcher vs. Tampa Bay (50 or so pitches)
Sun. April 2, no game, but a vigorous bullpen session (50-75 pitches - continue scaling upwards)
Regular season: Sat. April 8, makes start against the White Sox, with a limit of 5 innings or 75 pitches

That April 8 start is the turn of the fifth starter in the rotation. After that point, wouldn't Berrios be stretched out and ready to take his regular turn in the rotation? Yes? No? Thoughts?

-Shtickball-



An Euphus Pitch of Truth


 
Minnesota Twins First Baseman is in the later years of his career, and says he's finally finding some of the finer things in life as a well paid veteran.
 
"You grow up, you get old, and you find things that you really enjoy." Mauer said after finally showing up to Spring Training "I've had a blast watching my kids grow up, I've had a good time trimming my lawn with scissors, and now I've started smoking cigars lit with hundred dollar bills, and let me tell you, it's just fantastic."
 
Mauer said that he wasn't into cigars in his twenties, believing that they were "yucky", but now that he's 32 and is able to finally afford some of the finer things in life, he came across cigar smoking and found that it was even better when he lit the cigar with a spare hundred.
 
"I was watching the Simpsons, and I saw Krusty the Klown do it, and I was like, hey, that guy had a bunch of extra money laying around like I do, and he's doing that, I should give it a try, it looks like fun." Mauer added, chuckling at the thought of the pasty cartooned celebrity. "It's been extra fun lighting them in front of all the minor league guys at camp this spring. Their faces when they see that hundred just go to waste is priceless. They must think it's so funny they're speechless."
 
Mauer has been known as a quiet type, and not the flashy and flamboyant type that you would typically see lighting cigars with hundreds, but perhaps this is a new Joe Mauer. Mauer says he feels more comfortable in his place in the world as a super rich baseball player, and it's led to more confidence for him to do things he would've consider silly in his younger years.
 
Some of his teammates were perturbed by the news, but ultimately didn't have anything bad to say about the former AL MVP.
 
"I mean, he's got more money than God, why would he not do that?" One Twins player said, choosing to remain anonymous. "It's weird seeing him do something like this, like he's a kid who just discovered breaking the rules or something, but hey, he's happy as hell, so whatever."
 
Mauer said he hasn't really thought about other new hobbies yet, but he's hoping that he might come across some more fun things like this in the future. It's also been said that he's considering getting an Instagram account just so he can follow Dan Bilzerian at the recommendation of a teammate, but he hasn't gotten around to downloading any apps on his phone in the three years he's had it. This very well could be a new Joe Mauer though, a cigar smoking rebel without a cause, and who knows where it could go from here.

According to sources, Twins general manager Terry Ryan is getting more and more tired of having to dress up as former Indians executive Derek Falvey every morning at spring training, and is considering other options. Ryan, 63, hatched the deception last year as the Twins slid to the worst season in franchise history, but reportedly is tired of the extra work that the disguise involves.
 
Friends say that Ryan now grouses throughout his daily two-hour makeup session, which transforms him into a reasonable facsimile of Falvey, who until recently served as the general manager in Cleveland, where his partnership with manager Terry Francona helped return the woebegone franchise to the World Series in 2016. Ryan is also increasingly worried about the potential legal ramifications of kidnapping Falvey, former Rangers executive Thad Levine, and Minnesota director of baseball research Jack Goin, locking the three in a basement, and hiring actors to portray the latter two.
 
"Terry just wonders if he's doing the right thing here, what with the three counts of felony kidnapping he'll no doubt face," said a source. "Plus, the disguise is really starting to irritate his skin, especially the hairpiece."
 
Sources say that Twins president Dave St. Peter okayed the scheme midway through the 2016 season, allowing Ryan and company to keep control of the Twins' dealings for future seasons, while portraying a changing front office to disgruntled fans. St. Peter and others have been concerned about Ryan's offseason dealings, which were so Ryan-like as to raise questions from a fanbase that has long been used to the GM's over-cautious, cheap strategies.
 
Insiders say that Ryan is considering hiring a third actor to portray Falvey, while officially returning to the team as a "special advisor," thus removing the need for the morning disguise routine. Ryan has also toyed with the idea of "outing" himself by awarding a roster spot to a terrible veteran pitcher at the expense of a prospect, but - after signing Hector Santiago, Matt Belisle, and Ryan Vogelsong - is unsure how much more he could do.
 
"He's just getting tired," said the source. "If he signs Jason Bartlett again, then you'll know - he wants people to find him out. Until then, he'll have to keep going with the ruse."

There has been lots of discussion of Jim Pohlad's diagnosis of "total system failure." The owners are business people who rely on baseball experts to run the team, In one interview, Mr. Pohlad said the following:
 
"I’m the type to stand back and let the manager do his job. That’s something I learned from my dad, he would find people he could relate to and had confidence in, and then he let them go and run a business....I believe in that....n this case, I don’t know more about baseball that Paul Molitor (manager), Terry Ryan (general manager) and Dave St. Peter (president). So I try to put that lesson from my dad in practice." https://thatisgreat.co/category/interviews/
 
From a business perspective, this hands-off approach makes sense to me, but only there is a system in place that promotes accountability, particularly when the end product is failure.
 
Based on the interview, it appears that Mr. Pohlad made an effort to figure out what's going wrong and identified three possible explanations:
 
1. "One theory: the team isn’t as good as we thought it was."
 
2. "Maybe we’re doing something wrong in developing players."
 
3. Maybe last year was just a fluke. Maybe they appeared to play better than they really did. When you look at it, they only had one winning month last year, May, they were something like 20-7, and that kind of carried the whole season. Maybe we had unrealistic expectations for this year."
 
In my mind, explanation #1 and explanation #3 are two sides of the same coin, and explanation #2 is a red flag from a business perspective.
 
As a businessperson, these statements suggest to me that the Twins organization needs greater accountability. Obviously it's difficult to measure something like player development, because every player is unique. On the other hand, it seems to me that the two most important factors for a successful organization are player evaluation (scouting for the draft, scouting international players and scouting potential trades) and player development (coaching and decisions regarding promotion). If a team can excel at player evaluation and player development, then that team will likely succeed over the long run.
 
Obviously, there is a luck factor. Sometimes a team drafts a diamond in the rough (Mike Trout) and often a great looking prospect flops. But I think that there should be accountability for scouts who tag prospects who fail and who pass on prospects like Trout. I would hope that the Twins have scouts file detailed reports as to the prospects who they are scouting and that such reports are in a format that promotes intelligent evaluation of each scout's ability to predict success.
 
For example if a scout notes that a prospect has below average bat speed, then the development people should focus on that. Such records promote accountability and improvement. If the scout failed to note poor bat speed than that can be identified as the scout's mistake. If the coaches failed to help the player compensate for poor bat speed, then they should be able to show what they tried after reading the scout's report and why they failed.
 
From a business perspective, I would think that once a player comes into the system there should be a detailed computer record as to the player's strengths and weaknesses in every relevant category and that detailed records should be maintained showing what is being done and what needs to be done to improve every aspect of that player's game. For example, in the case of Buxton, every coach, manager and player development executive should have had access to reports going back to the first day that Buxton was scouted that include evaluations as to his ability to deal with curveballs and reports as to every effort made to improve this aspect of his game. I don't know whether the Twins maintain such a database or whether it is sufficiently detailed to promote accountability. Mr. Pohlad's use of the word "maybe" in the context of player development suggests to me that the Twins are not effectively using computer databases to create accountability.
 
Not to pick on Buxton, but another example is his seeming inability to bunt. This is based on my subjective eye test, but I have seen little league players who seem to have better fundamentals. In particular, if the ball is high then a player should pull the bat back,, and jabbing at the ball is a bad technique. In my ideal world, the Twins would have been tracking Buxton's bunting skills from the beginning and there should be records as to who worked with him on bunting, what they did and what they reported to the next set of coaches every time that Buxton moved up the ladder. There are lots of bunting drills. Which ones were used with Buxton and what has been done to help him with bunting? It seems to me that considering the financial investment that the team has made in Buxton, as well as the opportunity cost, the people running the team should be able to track every aspect of his development and make sure that all future speedsters have an excellent grasp on bunting fundamentals.
 
When I coached little league there was one team whose infielders all had great hands. At the end of the season, I asked their coach about this. His secret was using tennis balls for infield practice so that the kids could get used to weird hops without fear of getting hit in the face. There are some drills that are better than others. A a good database could give the Twins an edge over other teams by identifying the drills that pay off the most.
 
Hopefully, there is a lot of accountability that we are not seeing and there will be meaningful changes in the organization's practices and personnel. Ideally, the team will bring in high level people from more consistently successful organizations like the Cardinals who can suggest proven strategies that work better than what the Twins are doing now. With Buxton's speed, bunting should have been a priority from day 1.
 
In my mind, maintaining accountability is very important to maintaining long term success in any organization. If something is working then it should be repeated and enhanced. If something is not working, then a change of approach and/or personnel should be made promptly. Without accountability, mistakes are repeated and ineffective personnel injure the business.
 
Computer databases can promote accountability, but only if they are carefully designed to track relevant information. I would hope that the Twins are investing enough in this. Mr. Pohlad portrays himself as a business person who delegates to baseball people and I have no problem with that. But it seems to me that as a business person, Mr. Pohlad would be wise to insist on a very high level of accountability within the business.
 
If I were a team owner and had a Buxton who could not bunt, I would like to know that someone in the organization can look at a detailed record of Buxton's development and identify what happened. Did coaches try like hell to help Buxton learn the fundamentals of bunting? Or did coaches drop the ball on this? There should be a record within the organization so that if a player is having a problem with a fundamental skill then every coach and the relevant people in the FO can track the efforts to remedy this.
 
Perhaps, the Twins' performance is ultimately attributable to not employing cutting edge business strategies.
 
Fans sometimes complain that the owners run the team too much like a business. Perhaps the opposite is true?
 
Perhaps the key is to start tracking players from the first day that they are scouted and maintaining a database that allows the relevant coaches and executives to evaluate which scouts are doing the best job and which coaches are getting the best results.
 
Maybe the Twins are doing a lot of this already, but I am not seeing it on the field or in the media.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
-------
 
After the trading deadline passed and with the Twins' having the league's worst record in the last couple of months and their lead for the first and then the second wild-card position was getting smaller and smaller, there was hope that Terry Ryan will do something to improve the team in the 3 biggest positions of need, shortstop, catcher and the bullpen.
 
But he did nothing, other than trading the teams' 18th and 25th prospects (and that is from this off-season) for a 30 year old middle reliever with another year of arbitration in the middle of a 4.22 FIP and 1.333 WHIP season (and aided by a .254 BABIP.)
 
 
The Twins' fans feel that have every reason to be upset because of Ryan's inactivity. On the other hand, they should not be, because Ryan himself said exactly what he was going to do.
 
“I have every intention of trying to improve this club and find a piece here and a piece there,” 7/31
 
The "a piece here and a piece there" should had clinched that Ryan will be up to his usual dumpster diving.
 
 
“There’s nobody that’s more sensitive about that than me. They’ve done a hell of a job getting to this point, and we’re in a good position, and now it’s my responsibility to help the cause,” 7/31
 
It was his responsibility, but if nobody holds him accountable for not doing things he is responsible, might well be anyone's responsibility...
 
“I’m aware that one correct move by me could help that cause immensely because it’s going to change that attitude in the clubhouse. I don’t want them thinking a white knight is coming around the corner, because it might not be. But it also is a possibility that you don’t have to tinker with this too much to get us going back in the right direction.” 7/31
 
Here you have it. Clearly; "might not be". And you don't have to tinker too much, just get a mediocre reliever who is slightly better that the awful ones that are with the club. "a piece here"; not a white knight; not an All-Star reliever. That would be too much tinkering.
 
And here is the kicker:
 
“We’re not going to mess around much with this major league team,” 7/31
 
And he didn't. True to his word. And you don't have to read between lines.
 
It was all there. Why hope that Ryan will not be Terry Ryan in 2015, since he had been Terry Ryan since 1994 (with the small break of "retiring" to let someone else deal with the Santana and Mauer contract and the Ballpark situation, before returning.)
 
This is Terry Ryan.
 
And unless he goes away, the Twins' fans will not see another parade downtown Minneapolis. And if the Twins' owner cares about the Country Club more than winning, he should tell the team to one who cares about winning.