Alex
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Everything posted by Alex
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It almost sounds like an immovable object meets irresistible force type question...
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It surprised me when I found out that a high strikeout rate doesn't historically correlate to runs scored. I guess, though, when you can't hit anyway, they make things worse.
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You must not have watched much this season?
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Great insight. Makes me think they aren't really interested in the Hammer because of the extra year on the contract and he's the ruse.
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Booo!
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Me too. Shall we start with an over under on pages for game 162, or will we all be focused on the Vikings losing season?
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That's fair and I'd agree Parmelee is a huge disappointment, but at what's the minimum point would you question the Twins decision (whether it's how bad Doumit needs to be or good Parmelee needs to be) . Parmelee is .223/.303/.372 this season while Doumit is .243/.310/.382. For me, it's close enough to say that Doumit isn't worth batting at an OF/DH position and that you may as well give those ABs to someone else, especially considering defense.
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I'm starting the Twins should start giving someone credit for a cycle anytime he touches all four bases.
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It's a good point, and I'll admit this broadcast might be more effective than bedtime music for my daughters, through no real fault of the announcers. Though, now that I think about it, they had a great opportunity to discuss that strikeouts don't really have a negative impact on run scoring when they brought up that Cleveland and the Twins are both prone to strikeouts, unless of course you just can't hit like the Twins, then strikeouts are pretty awful.
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I think it's cute when Dick talks about the Twins and Sox like they are in a pennant race against each other.
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Twins are putting lineups out that are an homage to the deadball era.
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Struggling and not getting PAs on a rebuilding team are two different things. No one is blaming Doumit directly -- I think it's more about his use. He's the most expendable player of those getting at-bats, though Ramirez is a close second (and first if he continues to get regular playing time). EDIT: Doumit has 60 games at RF and DH. This is why people would argue he's the one most directly blocking Parmelee from get chances.
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Here are numbers on the opportunities the Twins have given players in discussion: Dozier 2012: 340 - 2013: 489 Plouffe 2011: 320 - 2012: 465 - 2013: 397 Parmelee 2011: 88- 2012: 210 - 2013: 274 The approach with Dozier and Plouffe has been consistent with rebuilding team. The approach with Parmelee has not. He not only has fewer PAs, but his have been the least consistent. Plouffe and Dozier had consistent playing time for two seasons. Parmelee really only got consistent time this season -- last season was a lot of up and down. Parmelee's career OPS is .720, the highest of the three players. I realize he's scuffling this year, but arguing he should be written off doesn't make a lot of sense when viewed in this context.
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I think having a better hitting first baseman would put more wins on the board. The winning vets on the Twins certainly haven't generated much these last three years. It's simply time to find out if we have better players or go and get them.
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Yes, that can be an advantage in some situations, but that idea is at worst balanced by the fact that they're a year older and what we are seeing may be a decline rather than a down year for both. It also certainly hasn't been the case for Morneau. He's hit better this season and more recently (though not in his last 22 PAs) so he'd be at his highest value by that logic but still no one wants him. Well, maybe the Pirates, but we'll see and my guess is at best the Twins essentially end up paying for a prospect.
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But that's the odd thing about this argument, right? If they were untradable last season for anything of value, they're certainly not going to become more valuable next season. And if, they don't have value to be traded, ie no one wants them over their current players, why are people going to bat in this thread for them to be in the starting lineup for the Twins? Also, "flip" means to "turn over," but no harm and I appreciate clearing that up.
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Pirates still interested in Justin Morneau
Alex replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
It's been a pretty common theme since Ryan took over that the Twins demands have been "high" in relation to anyone of value. It could be a negotiating tactic, but it's been there (Willingham, Perkins, Morneau previously). It wouldn't surprise me, either, if Ryan has rigid high expectations for return on players because that would seem to "mirror" his also rigid philosophy on free agency where he wants to come in low. -
I guess I'd also have a hard time saying that a rebuild is "further along" when the only player that I think is above 50% to have a good full major league season in the near future is Arcia. Beyond that, there are a ton of question marks and that's even more true of the pitching, which is incredibly tenuous.
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While I advocating signing a MI because I didn't think Dozier would really be a regular starter in the majors, they put him out there and let him play and it looks like I'll be wrong about that, which I'm more than happy to admit. I don't get why they haven't applied this philosophy with other players mentioned who have shown that they can hit AAA pitching.
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I don't see how this is debatable, honestly. Going back to 2011, the only significant trade(s) the team has made to help bring in young talent is to trade young major league talent (Span, Revere). They let a handful of veterans walk for nothing at that time (Nathan, Cuddyer, Kubel). It's looking unlikely that they will get anything out of their veteran FA signings from our recent offseasons Willingham, Doumit, Carroll, Correa, Pelfrey) or for Morneau, who will be leaving shortly. If they wanted players to help with a 2014 or even 2015 rebuild those players would have ideally brought something back already. Anything they bring back now will likely be further out that that, and it's far more likely they bring back nothing at all of value. Maybe that's true to some extent, but they've only been treading water these last two seasons and have shown minimal improvement-- the FA they've signed haven't helped them much -- they're not really better off and certainly don't look to be climbing out of anything. In fact, the opposite may be true if Willingham and Doumit have similar seasons next year. Who and where do you see them signing this offseason that could help be part of that? The only bet I'd make is that they sign a veteran 1B. Beyond that, I really don't see them signing anyone and I bet they again leave the FA SP market alone, or at least don't make any signings of significance.
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I think I realized part of the contention here is maybe the term "blocked." With the exception of Colabello, who I think has earned a chance at regular playing time, it's probably true that no one is really legitimately blocked. That is different than finding out what players can do in the majors, and that would be worthwhile for players many have mentioned. It was, in fact, a major point people made in giving Dozier a chance to play this year. Carroll probably deserved the spot over him at 2B to start the season, but Carroll wasn't really part of long term plans and so ended up on the bench much of the season. I don't understand why the front office and the manager don't apply this philosophy in a couple of other spots.
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And all this goes back to the main question: How do you a grade a rebuild? The Twins have not done a good job turning over veterans for prospects at the right times, and those veterans haven't really helped them field an even somewhat competitive team during the rebuild. They haven't done a good job of signing free agents that will help them get out of the rebuild more quickly or even really bridge the gap to a future team. Besides Dozier possibly, they haven't properly identified/developed/given a chance to younger players that can take over a position and make use of valuable major league time. The most successful aspect of the rebuild is in acquiring talent by trading already cost controlled and relatively young players in Revere and Span. They've done a good job of making smart decisions in the draft. For me, measuring how well a rebuild goes is how quickly it looks like the Twins are going to get out of it. At this point, their decision making with the major league team has been painfully slow and awful, but they've done a decent job strengthening the minor league system. This makes the rebuild a passive one that will be a significant wait.
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The problem is, these Twins veterans that are being talked about are not playing much above an AAAA level themselves and they are regularly starting. Doumit is the biggest example of this because he is hitting the worst and has no asset to provide besides his bat (though he can sit behind the plate), but it includes Willingham and to some extent Morneau this year (but certainly includes any talk of re-signing him). It's baffling to me to argue that they should be playing over comparable players that are younger and could have a longer future with the team is the issue. What sense does this make? If they had any trade value this season, wouldn't we be arguing they should have been moved? Instead, since no one else wants them, the position is that they should play for the Twins regularly? Now, I'm not arguing we cut bait on all of them, but a team that is rebuilding should not have all three of these guys on their roster. Willingham will need to be a more permanent DH next season. This really squeezes Doumit because Hermann is far more versatile, is certainly a better backup catcher, and is hitting almost as well as Doumit. This leaves Doumit in the outfield, which is not really a position he's suited for, not to mention, Parmelee got sent back to AAA for hitting about exactly what Doumit is hitting now.
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Again, I'm not arguing that. But you've pointed what is arguably another mistake in what should have been part of the rebuilding process. They signed a 32-year old player to a two year deal in late June during a losing season. A great take here: Ryan Doumit extension shows Twins still living in the past | HardballTalk Here's a quote from it that sums it up pretty well: "Ignoring for a moment the fact that the Twins seem to be working to keep together their probable 95-loss team, smart clubs don’t give out multiyear deals unless there’s real upside to them."
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Not arguing that point, and I agree on the Twins use of him, but was debating the selling high point. Doumit had probably his second best season in 2012 and turns 33 next season? Of course, it wouldn't have been terrible if they got something for him,ast year and had Butera catching Mauer's off days the last half ofthe season.