Alex

If you take this stance it's easy to justify any time the Twins don't spend money. It justifies their horrible on field product after getting a town to help build a beautiful stadium for them based on reasons that don't appear true. I, like some others, aren't broken up over this particular non signing, but the pattern is getting old.

Sad. I mean, it's not really either players' fault here but the fact that this play is still acceptable is a problem. When "all out effort" can mean not only a game injury but a life altering one to another player, that's a problem. I really don't understand why this play is acceptable on any level, it's not like catchers have appropriate protection for 170-190lb+ bodies with 90ft of momentum. This would be a rare play for most players in the NFL (standing still while the other player has that much built up momentum) and they have far more protection.

Sigh. Following the theory here, sign good pitchers to become competitive. Get better and then maybe elite pitchers sign. The alternative is doing nothing, and it's an approach that has done nothing so far.

Sure, but in the context of this discussion a lot of people have moved the narrative from "elite" to "good."

I hope you're joking.

I think he was referring to thegrin's comments.

Hmm...I'm looking at Fangraphs WAR. This will be the second time Correia has posted a War above 0.6 in the last five. Edwin Jackson hasn't posted a WAR below two in those last five years. Jackson is listed as worth about $5M more than Correia (this year) which is exactly what people are saying, yes you overpay to get Jackson but you actually get a better player with more upside. I did look at their stats again in Baseball Reference (2008-2013) and somehow got a third set of numbers (maybe due to updates?): Jackson: 4.17 ERA, ERA+ 101 Correia: 4.66 ERA, ERA+ 83 So, I'd agree that difference is not small and that the Twins are in a position to deliberately overpay a pitcher like Jackson to make the team better. The thing is when you spend very little, you're far more likely to get more value out of a player who succeeds, but even when he does, you still don't have a very good player that helps improve the team. When you overpay you aren't going to get full value but you're more likely to improve by more.

We don't know that always is true (and bolding it doesn't make it so). That said there do seem to be hints and rumors that the Twins don't make competitive offers. Also, Parker mentioned a source that said the Twins do have trouble getting interest in some FA because of their level of competition. But clearly it's not always true.

I actually thought the blue and white was pretty heavy and it sounded like we were playing in Toronto some of the time. It was also a weekend and the Twins have had some successful callups this month, though. But I agree. Maybe, but I think the Twins could at least help themselves by trying to create the perception of winning. When your big FA signing is Kevin Correa, it really doesn't look like you're all that interested in competing -- or if you are -- you look incompetent. I'm not saying they spend Toronto/LA/Yankee money but everyone knows they have a top farm system. I'd think that future potential could draw something, but the Twins need to make it look like they're interested in outside help and that they want to be competitive sooner rather than being content to wait.

Yeah, I was looking at the wrong line, but either way it was still under the threshold -- my bad!

I understand that, and I'll have to look closer but I thought Dozier played enough days to get a full year of service time. EDIT: Nope. I was wrong. He needed 172 days to qualify of 183. Dozier only played 125 games so at best he was up for around 150 days.

More games against Houston. Really, though, seeing improved play from exactly the players you named.

Absolutely not. But the comparison referenced was to their performance before their Sept callups. And Colabello has at least warranted a longer look because of the combination of performances - as Parmelee did eventually.

Bringing up Parmelee's September is a good point. I'd add, though, that Parmelee's success had less evidence behind it -- a good year in AA. Both Pinto and Colabello have had success in AAA.

If we dare hope that what we're seeing from Pinto and Colabello this month are glimmers of actual talent and what they could do next year, we're going to have a crunch next year with Willingham, Pinto, Colabello, and Doumit. It also means it's unlikely Parmelee and Hermann have a shot at making the roster next year, though Hermann's place may depend on Mauer's position. Mauer's position also snowballs to impact Colabello's regular play time to some extent, especially if Willingham shifts to the DH spot as he probably should. So, assuming Colabello and Pinto continue to produce as they have in September, what do you do and who do you try to move before next season? Where do you see everyone end up?

Deduno's injury is a serious concern and I'd definitely avoid locking him into a rotation spot -- sadly for him personally as well as for Twins' fans since he's been our best pitcher.

Depends on what you consider Wainwright. They locked him up before he became a FA for 5 years to the tune of 19.5M per year. So, no they didn't sign him as a FA, but they are paying a premier pitcher top dollar.

This is the same Phil Mackey that predicted an improved rotation? I can't disagree with what you say outright, but there are finer points that could be looked at. 1. The Twins have far more payroll flexibility now than ever. They have one significant contract. It wouldn't hurt them to take a shot at a higher upside guy than those they've recently gone after by opening up the pocketbook a bit. That doesn't mean they need to go $100M for 5 years...but something... 2. Sure to some extent. But, we need to get past the idea of overpaying. You can rarely expect to get dollar value on FA. You might have to overpay to actually get better. This is especially true of the Twins as they (as you say) are not the Rays or A's and haven't been able to do more with less. The alternative is to continue to be terrible. 3. Follows point 1 and 2. The Twins have limited options in other methods. They haven't done a good job of drafting or developing starting pitching, so they've been terrible. This also becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. If the Twins keep losing, they'll lose revenue and then have less room to assume risk. 4. Teams can suddenly get better and there's nothing wrong with simply making a team better. I'm not in the boat that says wait because you might be waiting forever. Trying to time picking up FA on prospects that might never make it is just as high risk. The bottom line for me is that the Twins haven't done a good job with whatever they're doing right now, especially with regards to starting pitching. You keep mentioning that other they are in the same boat as other teams, but there are other teams that are doing it better than they are with the same or less. They really have left themselves only one option in the near future for improvement and I think they should use it because I'd like to see a more competitive team next year. I'm at the point where I'd like to see them at least attempt to improve and fail (which doesn't have to mean a stupid signing, but a bit more risk would go a long way).

FTFY. Isn't Dozier finishing up his second year of service time, making him a FA in four years? I don't think you deal either, and really, there's no reason to. There's way too much risk to deal one now (both in what's lost and what could be gained). However, if you wait two-three years, you may have both at higher value (Dozier having established himself and Rosario ready to play 2B).

Some value? Brian Dozier wasn't crushing AA until he was 24. In fact, at 23, he had a .703 OPS at high A. I've been excited I was wrong about Dozier this season, but Rosario is on a far better developmental track. Ideally, Rosario becomes available as Dozier gets expensive and we reap good value....

Agreed, but there is the "Needs more Homers and RBIs" crowd, but maybe that's only local.

An interesting article regarding hitter's peaks with different aspects of hitting. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hitters-age-like-wine-power-like-cheese/ Especially interesting may be the isolated power numbers. I posted this as I think it is relevant to discussions about Plouffe and Dozier and their current power.

18th in WAR all-time by Fangraphs in 1178 Games. No one ranked above him with fewer. Buck Ewing is the only player close with 48.1 WAR in 1315 games. Add to that he did something three times no catcher before him had done and it's not even a question, imo.

True, assuming they can't hit as competent first basemen. If they show they can't, though it should still be easier to find a 1B who can at least hit more easily than a backup catcher. Again, I'd like to see Mauer catching as little as possible until he can add that value to help the team compete. Unfortunately, I think that will be too late as even a guy like Bench was pretty much done catching after age 32.

Unless Pinto is ready and hits better than an average catcher, this pretty clearly shows the value Mauer has at catcher. It's likely a loss of more than the .100 OPS mentioned as the hope for his improvement (which I think is pretty high). I am currently a fan of what Seth suggested. If he's healthy enough you play him more at catcher if needed when the Twins are competitive.