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Alex

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Everything posted by Alex

  1. Alex
    Fun with numbers: More posts here than fans at the stands by the ninth? FYI, Chicago Cubs in 1968 apparently did not score in 48 innings. They also were shut out 4 times in a row which has happened 11 more times since then. We're threatening now, though...but a K and DP should do the trick.
  2. Alex
    So, lose in the closing seconds in Chicago and back at Target Field the Twins now have how many scoreless innings?
  3. Alex
    If the player is getting a qualifying offer, he probably is substantial and, as mentioned, the fact that they are attached to a draft pick becomes part of the game and, at least last year, lowered the haul that most of them got. I'd argue that people are overvaluing prospects. A 2nd Rd pick has something like of 49% chance of even making the majors. That's a 51% chance that they'll never see the big league field. I'm not sure what the chance they become a valuable player is but that's much lower. The Twins have a well stocked farm system and a lot of extra cash. I think giving up a 2nd round pick for a reliable, proven major leaguer at this point is worth the chance. I'm not saying they throw the money away, but at this point, I'd have no problem with it. If they get better, to the point where their first round pick is unprotected because they've moved down a few spots, this opportunity is lost (and frankly, I hope that's the case soon).
  4. Alex
    He's been great in the field all year. His bat has only been good a couple of months.
  5. Alex
    So, what's your limit?
  6. Alex
    The hype is relative, though. The hype on Buxton is that he will be Mike Trout or better. The hype on Sano is that he's going to hit 40+HR a year and will be one of the best power hitters the organization has ever seen. Both of the these players could fall short of that and still be regular players, though. Hopefully it's not the worst case scenario, of course, where they don't manage even that.
  7. Alex
    -3.6 UZR there last season in 80 games. Project that out to a full season and that a -7ish UZR for a full season. Those numbers would make him one of the worst three (qualified) SS this season.
  8. Alex
    I don't disagree with the exception of 2B, C, and CL
  9. Alex
    An interesting comparisons might've to look at last year's defense vs. this year's. The OF wasn't as good without Span and Revere, but up the middle infield was improved greatly -- best combo In the league by some metrics. So, I'm not convinced the "it's not the pitcher's fault" really flies.
  10. Alex
    I agree. It comes across as pathetic excuse making and just not owning up. I'm sure it's because he can't just come out and say he made huge mistakes, but anyone should be able to read between the lines here -- that or he comes across as pretty mule-headed about the real reasons the Twins are terrible. I'd like to see how the Twins actually rank up when looking at injuries. I mean, relatively recent injuries (like those to Deduno and Mauer) occurred after the wheels had come off. The team has been incredibly healthy at almost every spot, especially when compared to two years ago. Willingham is the only exception, and he'll still end up with 500 PAs, not to mention he's not a 10 win guy. The bottom line is that there went into this season aging players who looked older this, hopes at 3B and RF that missed, a rookie CF who was not at all prepared, a 1B who was a shell of his former self, and a starting staff that was a lottery ticket where the max win was $10.
  11. Alex
    So you're saying if he had better players he'd manage better?
  12. Alex
    First, was that the primary purpose of the season -- especially as the front office was concerned? Second, developing players and being competitive are not mutually exclusive. The Twins could have fielded a more competitive team AND still had these players develop because -- as someone else mentioned -- most of them have nothing to do with the major league team. Most of those players would have had a chance to develop exactly the same way, especially the important ones (Sano, Buxton, Meyer), whether or not the Twins had brought in more talent at almost any position that merited an upgrade with the exception of 2B. Dozier had a rough season and looked replaceable but sticking with him has paid off and surprised many of us. Also, I don't think anyone has complained about the Twins minor league system. But, it would certainly have been nice to see both a more competitive team and/or a more active approach to make the team better.
  13. Alex
    Or you can be a fan regardless and share your frustrations about the way the team is run.
  14. Alex
    I believe they are getting that number from and interview and direct quote from the Twins organization, so it's probably a guideline for Ryan.
  15. Alex
    Cuddyer and Willingham have almost exactly flip-flopped OPS+ numbers (which account for park differences) between this year and last. I think it's worth caring about the value you get out of a contract when you have a team at or near its own cap. However, at this point, the focus of the team in FA should be adding better players. If they have to overpay a bit, they should.
  16. Alex
    I think the payroll for next year drop by 5-10 million but it's possible it will drop by $15M. At most, I imagine the Twins signing a decent FA and one or two journeymen types, but I wouldn't be surprised if their signings ar similar to last season. When combined with possible trades of veterans, I don't see the payroll even close to holding steady. I do hope I'm wrong.
  17. Alex
    If by success we mean basically doing nothing and waiting (mostly) for prospects that were acquired by someone else with a half decade or more of time between competitive seasons, I agree. He'll probably succeed.
  18. Alex
    Not sure how multiples work, but because they pick in the top 10 they lose a 2nd Rd pick instead.
  19. Alex
    People (Seth was the earliest) have laid out other reasons that have nothing to do with TR. for example, in a lot of positions of need, the Twins have young players that are close or near ready. One position of need, 1B, may need to be kept open for Mauer.
  20. Alex
    With regard to qualifying offers and draft picks: The Twins first round pick would be protected. So, if the Twins could get a lower risk higher upside player that could help them now and in a couple of years when they are more competitive, it might be worth looking at. I'm not sure Lincecum is that guy, but I'd definitely keep that option open.
  21. Alex
    Not a fan of the new slow and steady narrative I've seen pop up. It's possible to put an interesting team on the field without waiting a half decade or more. For prospects to mature.
  22. Alex
    Does anyone else think he possible increase in FA money available to everyone will drive salaries to the point where Ryan can't stomach it?
  23. Alex
    Yeah, but both of those are lower around the league as well, so pure numbers aren't enough. I'm not sure how they compare when factoring that in.
  24. Alex
    I wouldn't be surprised if the only increases are through arbitration and that they don't significantly replace the salary that's been lost. To be clear, I'm not predicting that that won't increase payroll, but I think it's far from "has to happen." First, I think this offseason could be an interesting FA market with all the new TV money coming in and that you could see some very big signings. With the way the front office, or at least TR, has been risk averse last season, if contracts do inflate, I don't see them getting all that deep in the muck where the team is at right now and for next season. The bigger reason, though, is I'm just not clear where they are going to spend on anything but journeymen replacements. Most positions in question have possible younger players coming up sometime next season or the year after (3B Sano may arrive, CF: Do you sign a CF when Buxton may be up in 2015, etc...). I'm not convinced they'll replace Morneau and, if they do, it might be small signing because they'll want to leave first as an option for Mauer. The exception, of course, may be starting pitching. There's no reason not to spend money there and hopefully they go out and get someone, but we saw how that went last year in what I think will be recognized as a far better market.
  25. Alex
    Single players don't make baseball teams, especially when we're talking about guys that haven't played above high-A. Having one of the three best hitting catchers of all time has not helped the Twins avoid three very awful seasons.
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