jimmer

I believe I read somewhere, maybe on this thread, that Fangraphs had rated the Twins farm system in the bottom 10. I haven't seen that.

I haven't seen Fangraphs article ranking the farm systems yet. I've seen their prospect guys' individual reports on some clubs, including ours, but no 1-30 rankings of systems.

Rarely does a position player garner more value at the trade deadline than he would in the offseason. Premium trade deadline prices show up almost exclusively with pitchers.

I don't remember our defense getting any better later in the season. Don't we envision every starter besides Suzuki being the same?

Trumbo was only averaged 0.7 WAR over the last 3 years. 0.7. Trumbo only averaged 1.7 WAR over the last two years. 1.7. His ONLY value is HR. Can't get on base, can't play defense, He's only had a wRC+ of 110 or higher twice. Glad Twins didn't waste their money on him. Hoping Baltimore signing Davis and Trumbo for what they did stops them from being able to sign Machado.

Probably generous.

Because saves leader?

Old School MLB Network guys whining cause the HR leader, who is 'only' 31, got 'only' a 3/38ish deal. Then say he's basically Chris Davis who go who got 7/161. Are they the same? Before Davis' contract, he posted a WAR of 5,6. Before Trumbo's contract, Trumbo posted 2.2 WAR. Before Davis' contract, he posted a wRC+ of 148. Trumbo posted wRC+ of 123. Davis career slash: .250/.330/490 (OPS+120). Trumbo's:.251/.303/..473. (OPS+112) Davis play good D at 1B, Trumbo plays horrible defense (when he plays defense). These are not the same players, unless someone grunts, scratches themselves and mumbles home runs. Did Davis get too much?Yeah,, but at least he came off a great season and provides value offensively and defensively.

Beltre wRC+ 115, OPS+ 116, OPS .818. Traditional slash line:.286/.338/.480 Chipper wRC+ 141, OPS+ 141, OPS .930. Traditional slash line: .303/.401/.529 Offensively, Beltre isn't close. But defense should and does count. Chipper about average (maybe slightly below, but not too much below). Beltre, on the other hand, AWESOME on D! And though bWAR has Beltre barely above Chipper, fWAR actually has Chipper higher than Beltre (barely) though I doubt it ends up that way when it's all said and done. P.S. Chipper is also 3rd in HRs for 3Bs.

I think Chipper is an absolute slam dunk HOFer worthy of first ballot entrance, and he'll get it. Never had an amazing year? Well, he has an MVP, had 5 seasons with an OPS over 1.000 (which is more than 25% of his seasons), led the league in OPS+ once, has a batting title, had a season where he had an OBP of .470. Had 10 seasons with an OBP over .400. Had 11 seasons with an OPS over .900 and NEVER had an OPS under .800. Oh, and he wasn't a 1B or a corner OF, he was a 3B. BA of .303, OBP .401, SLG% over .529. 141 OPS+. 18 year career with an OBP over .400? Yes please. Not sure how one can have those career numbers and never have an amazing season. 'Some cool Chipper nuggets: He's one of exactly two switch-hitters in history who hit .300 from both sides of the plate over at least 5,000 plate appearances. (The other: Frankie Frisch.) ... He's also one of two switch-hitters in the .400 OBP-.500 SLG-400 HR Club. (The other: Some guy named Mickey Mantle.) ... He finished with more than 100 more walks than strikeouts. And in the expansion era, only four other players with as many home runs as the Chipster could say that (Bonds, Frank Thomas, Albert Pujols, Gary Sheffield). ... And if we're allowed to mention RBIs, guess who drove in more runs than any player in history whose primary position was third base? Yep. Chipper Jones (1,623).'--Jayson Stark And the WAR argument, for those who care (and many don't). There are 7 retired 3B that are in the top 10 for bWAR at 3B. ALL of them are in the HOF. Beltre (4th), Chipper (6th) and Rolen (10) are the other three in the top 10 and haven't been on a ballot yet.

It's not like Glavine was ever a K machine or a control freak.. -He was at 7K/9 or higher only twice. -He only walked less than 2 per 9 once. -Mussina AVERAGED over 7K and less than 2BB/9 And Mussina had less than 50 PA against pitchers, Glavine had over 1300 PA against pitchers.. Mussina pitched against better offenses and performed better across the board anyway. You want to say the extra innings/years help even out the rate stats, well, the fact that Glavine faced weaker competition than Mussina his whole career put the advantage right back to Mussina. But those 800 more innings is also what got him the 300 wins which was likely another big reason why he gets in first ballot. If Mussina wanted to be a compiler,, he likely only needs another 400 innings to get to 300 wins. And he'd still have about 400 less innings if he had done that.

So Jayson Stark made an interesting comment, 'I'd even argue he was the greatest No. 1 overall draft pick of all time -- considering he played every game of his career for the team that drafted him..' I love Chipper and he is a slam dunk HOFer, but there's a guy named Ken Griffey Jr. Thoughts?

You make it sound like all I put was WAR (calling it a WAR-based analysis like that automatically makes it invalid which I guess for some it does), and I didn't just use WAR. In fact, only one paragraph mentioned WAR. A lot of your argument goes back to the media/popularity argument (no, he didn't deserve 2 CY, only one) and compiler issues I already pointed out. Even without WAR (which you bring up, and discard, twice) I think he's overrated. It's not like I didn't list a bunch of other comparisons, right? FIP, ERA+, K/9, BB/9 NL versus AL, etc. All of which favor Mussina and Schilling. I even mentioned winning % , which I don't care about but thought it should be mentioned because SOME do. Winning % is as far away from WAR as one could get. And I never said Glavine wasn't HOF worthy, just that Schilling and Mussina were better, yet Glavine gets in easily on first shot. That's my issue. He certainly doesn't stack up to the group of Pedro, Clemens, Big Unit and Maddux.

Seems like a fairly similar conclusion that Fangraphs had: 'The system is more interesting than it is good or deep and whomever the Twins draft No. 1 overall next year will instantly become their top prospect. Teams like Toronto and Los Angeles, who have multiple picks between No. 1 and 39 (Minnesota’s second pick due to comp picks for free agents) will probably discourage the Twins from trying to get creative next June.'

BTW, question abut HOFer IRod. He was an awesome defensive catcher. Has Yadier been even better? I've watched both in their prime and think Yadier might be even better defensively.

'Mussina had nine seasons with an Adjusted ERA+ better than 129. The only perspective you need on what that means is the list I'm about to unfurl. The only five starters since 1900 with more seasons that much better than the league average: Clemens, Walter Johnson, Christy Mathewson, Greg Maddux and Lefty Grove. Check!'--Jayson Stark. Mussina has 82 WAR (that is a ton. That should get you in no matter what team you play on). Schilling 80 WAR. Glavine only 67 WAR (even though he played CONSIDERABLY longer than the other two). Before looking at the comparison below, remember Glavine pitched in the NL (the non-DH league) his whole career, Mussina pitched in the AL East his whole career. Mussina 3.57 FIP, Schilling 3.23 FIP, Glavine 3.95 FIP. Mussina ERA+ of 123 (3562 IP), Schilling ERA+ of 127 (3261 IP), Glavine ERA+ of 118. (4413 IP) Mussina 7.11K, 1.98BB, Schilling 8.60K, 1.96BB, Glavine 5.32K, 3.06BB (and he pitched to a lot of pitchers). For those who care about wins and losses, Mussina had a .638 winning %. Glavine was at .600 and Schilling at .597. I'm not sure what people can look at and say Glavine was a first ballot HOFer while Schilling and Mussina continue to wait, but I sure can't find it. But Glavine gets in first ballot. He was a win accumulator who stuck around a long time to get to 300 wins (which seem to matter but the losses don't). Fortunate to be on great teams with great teammates in the rotation, 'Big Three'. The writers pushed the Big Three narrative and they rewarded themselves, and Glavine, because of it.

One of those guys is not like the others.

I'm going to stand by what I wrote in the post you quoted 100%. You may not like my take on what happened or my opinion on it, but its not disingenuous. That word gets thrown around here a lot.

At least two of those three teams were bad last year as well (Royals and White Sox). We went 4-15 against the Royals and 7-12 against the White Sox. We went 4-15 against Detroit too. If we go even .500 against them, they have a losing record too.

absolutely all of this.

I should have been able to put 2 and 2 together. My bad.

They've expanded the called strike zone every year since 2010 (starting then) until this year where it was like 2014 (though still quite different than 2009 and before). IMO, patient batters with very keen eyes who were used to a certain strike zone for a long time, have a harder time adjusting. He should be adjusting of course, but for players who are more free swingers, the change in strike zone is less of an issue.

De Leon and Stewart would be a very good haul for Dozier. For the love of Luke Skywalker, I hope we didn't/wouldn't turn that down.

Vlad Guerrero (with his 54 fWAR and 59 bWAR in 9,000 PA) barely misses it in his 1st shot and likely makes it next year. EDMONDS (with his 65 fWAR and 60 bWAR in 8000 PA) is off the ballot in his 1st shot. 8 time gold glover and OPS over .900 (and he was primarily a CF). Larry Walker (with his 69 fWAR and bWAR of 73 in 8000 PA) isn't going to make it. This guy did it all (hit, very good runner, very good defender). He is 10th in WAR for RF and every single guy in the top 14 for RF, with the exception of Shoeless Joe who is banned, is in the HOF. Ichiro, who is 16th in WAR for RF, will make it too (likely 1st time). But, of course, WAR isn't the end all be all (for some, it means zero) When looking at positions, defense, wRC+ and OPS+ (which accounts for park and time frame) it's equally ridiculous to see Vlad so close on first time and neither of these guys having any kind of shot.

Still no Mussina, still no Schilling. In fact, Schilling actually DROPPED.