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Cap'n Piranha

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Everything posted by Cap'n Piranha

  1. Cap'n Piranha
    That was true--last year. A year before Kepler's breakout, when Sano and Buxton were hurt basically the entire year, Polanco was suspended for half the year, Garver spent 2/3 of the year in the minors, and Arraez the entire year. Just because a player has been good doesn't mean he still is or will be good--that looks like the case with Eddie right now. He continues to increase his chase rate, but has also increased his contact rate--likely leading to the decline in his BABIP, which combined with his cratering walk rate puts his OBP right around .300. Despite only getting 37% of pitches in the zone, Eddie starts 60% of his PA's 0-1; either pitchers have figured out you don't need to give him a strike to start an at-bat, or once they do, they don't go back to the zone again. Either way, this is not sustainable, and I find it hard to believe that a guy who will be 28 next year, and has had the same hitting coach for the last 3 years while his discipline eroded, is all of the sudden going to start demonstrating even a modicum of patience. Cave does just about everything Rosario does, but will do it at about 10% of the cost next year--I'd rather the Twins spend the ~$5.5M savings on pitching or building a lineup of death than "upgrading" from Cave to Rosario.
  2. Cap'n Piranha
    When the entirety of the case for keeping a player is "he has a lot of RBI's," it means he's not really that great of a player, he just consistently finds himself in opportunities to drive in runs. Eddie is 21st in baseball in terms of PA's with RISP; in those situations he has a .900 OPS, which sounds good until you realize that actually only puts him 86th in baseball this year. By wRC+ he's tied for 87th, and wOBA puts him at 91st. Zooming out to 30,000 feet, Eddie has 1.3 WAR in 110 games and 472 PA; Cave is at 0.8 in only 51 games and 156 PA. Add in the fact that most of our best hitting prospects (Kiriloff, Larnach, Rooker, and potentially Lewis) are nominally outfielders, the fact that Kepler and Buxton are clearly better and more valuable players, and Eddie only has two more years of control left (at much more money) compared to Cave's 4, and this honestly seems like a no-brainer to me.
  3. Cap'n Piranha
    At this rate we're going to set the home run record in August!
  4. Cap'n Piranha
    CRON!!!
  5. Cap'n Piranha
    Someone tell me right now--what does Rosario do that Cave doesn't? I swear, if I was Falvine, I would 1000% trade Eddie this offseason.
  6. Cap'n Piranha
    CAVEMAN!!!
  7. Cap'n Piranha
    It made me laugh out loud, particularly when he got upset when an unidentified teammate attempted to give the squirrel some water.
  8. Cap'n Piranha
    Aaron Judge this year has 6 homers in 178 PA's at Yankee Stadium, and 11 in 163 PA's on the road. This is a flip from his career splits, but it's not quite so cut and dry to attribute all of Judge's power to the Bronx.
  9. Cap'n Piranha
    Twins bullpen in August, with MLB ranks; 9 k/9 (15th), 2.2 bb/9 (1st), 0.95 HR/9 (3rd), .332 BABIP (26th), 35.5% GB rate (28th), 4.02 ERA (8th), 3.36 FIP (2nd), 4.16 xFIP (7th), 1.7 WAR (2nd). Perhaps Falvine knew what they were doing at the deadline.
  10. Cap'n Piranha
    As I understand it, that is incorrect. When predicting playoff odds, the data is input, and then simulations are run. Based on the numbers I gave above, if 1,000 simulations are run, the Twins made the playoffs in 974 of those simulations (883, 336, 149, and 73 for the other rounds, compared to 824, 524, 216, 91, and 44). As to whether Cleveland is more likely to advance given the same position as the Twins, that is slightly true based on reaching the division series (38.1% to LCS, 16.9% to WS, 8.3% win WS for Twins, 41.2%, 17.4%, 8.4% for Cleveland), but flips back to the Twins favor for reaching both subsequent series.
  11. Cap'n Piranha
    According to Fangraphs, the Twins have a better chance than the Indians to make the playoffs (97.8 to 81.5), make the ALDS (89.1 to 51.8), make the ALCS (36.4 to 20.7), make the World Series (15.0 to 9.1), and win the World Series (7.2 to 4.6).
  12. Cap'n Piranha
    The difference between May and Duffey being options 2A and 2B, and May and Duffey being options 4A and 4B is absolutely massive.
  13. Cap'n Piranha
    Dude, we can debate multiple definitions at the same time. I've stated, explicitly and multiple times, that based solely on on-field production (which is the current criteria), Trout is the MVP, it's not close, and it should be unanimous. If the MVP is restricted to the current year (which it should be), but pay is included (which it also should be), Trout is much less valuable, due to the fact that each point of WAR costs $4.2M (Kepler is $1.7M, Acuna is $196k, Bellinger is $88k). Those 3 players cost less than half of Trout this year, but have combined for almost twice the WAR. Here's an example for you; say you are told you can have one bowl of ice cream, and you get a choice between two bowls. One has 3 scoops, and costs $5, while the other costs $2 for 2 scoops. If all you care about is maximizing your ice cream, you'll get the 3 scoop bowl. However, if you get the 2 scoop bowl, you can use your extra 3 dollars to buy a brownie, some hot fudge, whipped cream, and a cherry. The latter option clearly has more value, which should perhaps be taken into account when conferring an award that has the word Valuable right in it.
  14. Cap'n Piranha
    And if the Indians didn't go 41-16 from June 4 through August 9, the Twins would be winning the division by 15 games.
  15. Cap'n Piranha
    I am legitimately done with Eddie. I want the Twins to move him this offseason for whatever they can get.
  16. Cap'n Piranha
    Well put.
  17. Cap'n Piranha
    Dan Gladden is an idiot. "The White Sox average exit velocity today is 82 MPH, but they have 7 hits! Makes you wonder, is exit velocity really that important". To his credit, Cory Provus immediately and unequivocally corrected him.
  18. Cap'n Piranha
    Jake hits the #9 hitter, who is OPS'ing .606, with the next three batters up already 5 for 6 on the day. What could go wrong?
  19. Cap'n Piranha
    Here's the thing with the White Sox; they have exactly 3 good relievers, and then a bunch of terrible ones. If we're still trailing after 6, the White Sox will use their good guys, whereas if we're up, they'll use their bad guys. It explains why we lost Monday, but crushed yesterday.
  20. Cap'n Piranha
    Pull Odorizzi now, and put Thorpe in. With a day off tomorrow and Monday, a full shuttle, the Tigers up next, and roster expansion in 10 days, this game needs to be bullpenned.
  21. Cap'n Piranha
    I have to say, you're quite the dresser.
  22. Cap'n Piranha
    Speculation on your part. It's possible that a Twins loss is the straw that breaks the camel's back, vis a vis global immolation. I think just to play it safe, the White Sox should let the Twins win.
  23. Cap'n Piranha
    Eddie has a 108 wRC+, due to his .308 OBP. That wRC+ puts him 11th for Twins regulars (ahead of only Cron, Cave, Gonzalez, and Schoop). His OBP is 13th amongst regulars (ahead on only Schoop). What Eddie can do is hit for power, and be pretty good in high leverage (124 wRC+). That's best suited for the 6 or 7 spot in the lineup, when there will hopefully be baserunners for him.
  24. Cap'n Piranha
    Nope, scheduled day off.
  25. Cap'n Piranha
    If the MVP vote is based solely on current year production, Mike Trout is the clear and only choice. If he doesn't win it unanimously, people should have their voting privileges taken away. If it's based on current year value, which would include salary, arguments can be made Trout shouldn't be in the top 5. To illustrate this, think about if the Twins had signed Berrios to a 6 year, $150M deal before the season started, but Berrios had the exact same season. He's clearly less valuable in that scenario than in one where he's not extended, despite identical production. If we're talking organizational value, Trout shouldn't even be on the ballot. Anthony Rendon has put up 5.2 WAR this year so far (8th among hitters). However, since he cost $18M this year, and is a free agent after this year, Juan Soto, Trea Turner, and Victor Robles all have far more value. Think of it this way; who do you think would require more in prospect capital to acquire; Mike Trout or Ronald Acuna? If the answer is Acuna, that would seem to make it pretty obvious that Acuna is more valuable.
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