Eris

On may 9, 2025 I was in Greensboro, NC watching my grandson's team play in the North Carolina High School Baseball Playoffs.  I met Luke Napleton from Chicago. He had been playing for a semi-pro team in High Point, NC, called The Rockers. (High Point used to manufacture a lot of furniture and has furniture markets every year.) Frank Viola is the pitching coach for the Rockers. Luke told me he had just been signed by the Twins and was going to Ft. Myers this weekend. He expected to either play at Ft. Myers or at Cedar Rapids. He was with the Rockers only a short time, but was hitting .571 (12 for 21) with 2 doubles and 2 home runs. I told him I was the biggest Twins' fan in North Carolina. He played at the University of Louisville in 2024 and hit .320 with 11 HR. 

Every sports fan is likely to believe the umps are biased against their team, but there have been several games lately that make it seem like the fates are working against the Twins. Let's look at some examples.
In last night's game against the Pirates, assistant hitting coach Derek Shomon was ejected for arguing balls and strikes. As it turns out, he was right to be frustrated, as HP ump Paul Clemons called a pitch to Correa a strike when it was a ball. Later in the inning, with bases loaded, a ball to Kepler was called a strike, impacting the shape of the plate appearance, the inning, and the game, as the Twins were unable to score a run. After the game, the folks at umpirescorecards.com released their scorecard, and Pittsburgh was awarded 1.17 runs in their favor.

During the Yankees series, there were several questionable calls and most seemed to go against the Twins. That seems to be a trend on the season. Let's take a deeper dive into the data
So far this season, if all pitches had been called correctly, the Twins should have scored an additional 5.22 runs. Their main divisional opponent, the Guardians, should have scored 17.82 FEWER runs than they have. Overall, that 23 run differential means that the two teams should be much closer in the standings than they are. However, not all runs are created equal. So, I looked at the ump scorecards for each game that was decided by two of fewer runs to understand exactly what impact the umpires have had on the two teams results.
For starters, there have been two head-to-head games that went Cleveland's favor that actually should have been Twins victories. Here are the scorecards for the 4/6 and 5/17 games.  
There have been other examples of Twins losses that the outcome should have been wins, or at least may have ended differently. On 4/14 against the Tigers, the final score was 3-4 Tigers, but they scored 1.32 additional runs due to ball and strike calls.
 
On 4/19, also against the Tigers, the 4-5 loss was in part decided by the extra .88 runs awarded to the Tigers. 

That's four losses directly attributed to incorrect ball and strike calls.
There was also a single example of the Twins recording a win that they may not have earned. On 4/23, against the White Sox, the 6-5 score was aided by an extra run in our favor.

Net-net, this likely means we should have at least three more wins than we actually do. 
Earlier, I mentioned Cleveland's 17.82 surplus runs. According to umpirescorecards.com, they lead all of baseball in favorable calls. How has this impacted their win total? In addition to the two-game swing based on the head-to-head matchups discussed earlier, they have had several one-run victories where they scored a half-run due to ball and strike calls. While these may still have ended in Cleveland wins, the outcome may have been different on 4/18, 5/6, 6/1, and 6/7.

Perhaps more importantly for Cleveland, they have only had a single game this season that calls went against them in a meaningful way - 4/13 against the Yankees. With a final score of 3-2 Yankees, the evil empire was granted an extra .55 runs.
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Assuming that Cleveland would have won half those games anyway, it's fair to think their actual win total should be four wins less than reality.
What's the impact of all this? Well, entering play on 6/8/24, Cleveland is 40-22 and the Twins are 33-30. Based on expected win totals were balls and strikes called accurately and consistently, the ACTUAL win/loss records should be Cleveland at 36-26, and the Twins at...36-27. That reality would feel much different for fans than the one we are living. The good news is we are well-positioned the rest of the way, with one of the easiest remaining schedules in baseball. Cleveland has one of the hardest. With some fair umpires, we just might be able to run away with the division.
Thoughts?

I didn't wanna see him go in 2018.
While I sat at home watching the Twins play on a perfect Minnesota night in September, Mauer came to the plate in the bottom of the 5th inning against the nemesis New York Yankees, and the ingredients were in place for this at-bat to be something special. The Twins were up 6-1 and the bases were loaded, and everyone watching knew Joe Mauer had exactly one thing on his mind: taking the first pitch, which he did, for a ball.
Because that was Joe's process. A quiet, understated patience that drove pitchers to frustration and subtly nudged umpires to up their game. Without saying a word, he communicated to his opponent that he was going to force him to deliver a pitch he could hit.
This was also evident in the broadcast booth, as Mauer's old teammate, Justin Morneau, commented on what we were about to see with just a tinge of excitement in his voice.
"I'll be surprised if Joe swings early, and I'll be surprised if he swings at anything out of the zone."
Joe took another pitch, a 96 mph fastball which caught the corner for a strike. Joe barely reacted while he kicked the dirt and began setting up for the next pitch. It was then that Morneau said something which made me catch my breath.
Upon Dick Bremer remarking that Mauer's average with RISP was still 5th in the league despite having dipped a bit, Morneau offered more than just platitudes: he offered an opinion.
"And that's the part that tells me he still has something left in the tank - he still should continue to play baseball when he can come through in those situations."
With Mauer's future uncertain and his contract coming to a close, this felt like a papal decree. For Justin Morneau, one of Mauer's closest friends, to make a statement like that during a broadcast?! Surely he would know what Mauer was planning for the future and wouldn't comment otherwise, right? 
Mauer took his third consecutive pitch for another strike on the outside edge, making it 1-2.
"Come on, Joe! Swing at 'em!" someone shouted from the stands.
Joe stepped out of the box and calmly looked around, resetting his focus and taking a big breath before watching the 4th pitch hit the dirt, and the 5th pitch follow right behind for a full count.
5 pitches, and the crowd was beginning to buzz without Joe ever taking the bat off his shoulder. 
"This is what Joe Mauer does, he makes you throw him something that he wants to hit."
And so it was, on this crisp autumn night, as Yankees pitcher Tommy Kahnle grooved a fastball directly down the center of the strike zone. and Joe Mauer let loose all the energy that he'd been holding in reserve up until that point.
Dick Bremer was immediately on the mic. "A high blast to center field! Going back is Hicks!"
"Go ahead, ball!" implored Roy Smalley.
"That ball is GONE, a grand slam!"
The only swing that Joe Mauer made was a no-doubter, and Target Field let their appreciation for their hometown kid be known. Sitting in my office with my dog asleep on my lap, it was all I could do to raise my arms in silent appreciation. He's still got it. He's still my guy.
"Like I said, there's plenty left in the tank right there. That's fun to watch," Morneau repeated. From his mouth to the front office's ears, I thought.
I didn't wanna see him go.
But baseball isn't a scripted narrative, and life doesn't revolve around sports, despite how much we believe it to be true. Mauer would take his final curtain call at catcher a few weeks later, while I tried to convince myself that this was simply him hedging his bets - this was just in case things didn't work out when he'd come back to the team to talk about a short extension. The lies we knowingly tell ourselves when the truth would be too painful.
Joe Mauer's legacy is one that is almost amusing in its stubborn adherence to form: an understated stature that loomed large when it needed to, never flashy, and knowing what was needed at the right time. In 2018, Mauer knew that it was time to be a dad, looking back on his career and deeming it a fine enough journey to be proud of. 
Later today, Joe Mauer will get the delicious icing of finding out that the baseball world wholeheartedly agrees with that assessment with his election to the Hall of Fame. A perfect ending to the career of an unassuming kid who, throughout it all, let his patience do the talking.
Here's to you, Joe.

Why not hype Royce Lewis as AL rookie of the year? Rookies with a full year (or nearly so) in the league have a certain advantage, but none of the familiar names have numbers approaching Royce. Royce is number one in average, slugging, HR/AB, RBI/AB, and OPS.
Rankings by OPS w 200 minimum AB:
Royce Lewis .302/.365/.545 202 AB 14 HR 50 RBI and .910 OPS
Tristan Casas (Bos) .263/.367/.490 429 AB 24 HR 65 RBI and .857 OPS
Zach Gelof (Oak) .268/.335/.516 213 AB 11 HR 25 RBI and .851 OPS
Yanier Diaz (Hou) .285/.309/.536 330 AB 21 HR 56 RBI and .845 OPS
Edouard Julian (Min) .266/.379/.454 293 AB 13 HR 27 RBI and .833 OPS
Gunnar Henderson (Bal) .257/.327/.496 502 AB 26 HR 76 RBI and .823 OPS
Josh Jung (Tex) .274/.323/.489 427 AB 22 HR 67 RBI and .812 OPS

Gilberto Celestino has had an interesting path to the majors, and one that reduced his initial shine for most of the fanbase. Celestino was acquired for Ryan Pressly at the 2018 trade deadline, alongside Jorge Alcala, in a very unpopular deal at the time. MLB Pipeline ranked Celestino the 15th best prospect in 2019, and 14th best in 2020. The consensus was that Celestino was a standout defensive center fielder, but questions about his bat and power limited his overall projection.
When Celestino was called up out of emergency in 2021, his initial performance not only confirmed the offensive questions in the prospect rankings but the calling card of his defense was also poor with -2 Outs Above Average coming from 56 attempts. Celestino was clearly overmatched at the major league level, as he played a handful of games at AA before making the jump to the Twins. Celestino accumulated a 22 wRC+ and -0.7 fWAR in only 62 plate appearances in 2021. 
Needless to say, when Celestino was added to the 2022 Opening Day roster the reaction amid the fanbase was tepid. It's probable that the Twins didn't even envision Celestino making the roster, as they optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul on 3/31. Many believed that his status on the roster was to be temporary, with rumors swirling about the Twins adding Justin Upton to be a source of right-handed power in the outfield. 
Derek Falvey even went as far to say that Celestino could be off the major league roster in a week's time. 
Flashing forward to early May, Celestino has outperformed expectations, and probably any output that could have come from Justin Upton. As of 5/9, Celestino has provided some of the best offensive and defensive numbers on the team. 
  AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+ wRC+ wOBA fWAR bWAR Gilberto Celestino .324 .390 .405 .796 144 143 .361 0.6 0.4 FanGraphs has Celestino as the 6th most valuable offensive player on the Twins in fWAR and his wRC+ is the third highest on team behind Byron Buxton and the legendary Kyle Garlick. On the defensive side of his game, Celestino has 2 Outs Above Average (84th percentile). It's a small sample size, but how has Celestino been so valuable this early on? 
The answer to that question: Celestino has had amazing plate discipline. 
Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Swing % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing % 2021 235 51.5 64.5 82.1 26.3 63.3 43.8 30.6 46 23.1 6 85.7 2022 145 52.4 65.8 96 15.9 72.7 46.2 28.6 42.1 8.2 8.3 66.7 MLB   48.5 66.8 82 28.3 58.4 42.6 29.2 47 24.6 7.2 76
The highlighted cells show that areas where Celestino has been outperforming both his 2021 self, and the MLB average. He's simply become one of the most contact-oriented players in the game, and one of the most discerning about balls and strikes. He's swinging and making contact at pitches that are meant to be swung at in the zone, and spitting at the outside pitches that usually result in outs. 
Among all players with at least 25 plate appearances, Celestino ranks 3rd in Whiff % (8.2%) , and 16th in Chase Rate (15.9%). To put that in further perspective, here's a look at Celestino compared to two other players with great plate discipline reputations. 
  Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Swing % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing % Gilberto Celestino 145 52.4 65.8 96 15.9 72.7 46.2 28.6 42.1 8.2 8.3 66.7 Luis Arraez 351 43.6 66 92.1 25.8 88.2 46.4 19.5 43.3 8.6 5.7 60 Juan Soto 549 43.4 56.7 80.7 19.3 66.7 41 20.3 35.5 23.1 5.8 78.1 MLB   48.5 66.8 82 28.3 58.4 42.6 29.2 47 24.6 7.2 76 Am I saying that Gilberto Celestino is the next Juan Soto or Luis Arráez? No, but I am saying that Celestino is a supremely disciplined hitter with extreme contact skill. That doesn't always take a large sample to determine. Soto has a chase rate of 19.3%, which ranks in the 90th percentile. Arráez has a miniscule whiff rate of 8.6%, which is in the 100th percentile of MLB players. Celestino tops both players in these areas at this point in the season. 
The only knock on Celestino this year can be his lack of power. Both his Barrel Rate (3.2%) and his average exit velocity (86.9 MPH) rank below the MLB average. However, the Twins have plenty of slugging across their lineup to make up for that. Luis Arráez used to be the lone bat-to-ball man in the lineup with names like Miguel Sano, Gary Sanchez, Alex Kiriloff, and Gio Urshela. It helps to have offensive diversity, and Gilberto Celestino may be filling a needed niche that nobody expected. 

If Celestino's current blend of strong defense and astounding swing decisions holds up, he probably ranks as a starting-caliber outfielder on most major league teams. The lack of power will always hold him back from being a true star, but his skillset fits today's game more so than the previous half-decade. The surprise addition to Opening Day roster may have been the perfect fit for the 2022 brand of baseball. 
 
 

With recent struggles from Twins pitchers, for example, an early season discussion has been brought up this week. Did the Twins address well enough the team’s need during the offseason? Some people sure feel like they didn’t. But one offseason move (out of several others) that we can absolutely tell was right on the money was the Marwin Gonzalez signing.
 
Having played this season in six different positions throughout the field, while also batting DH and pinch hitting, “Margo” is officially one of the most useful pieces a team could have in the sport. Baseball Essential considered Gonzalez the best super-utility player in the game. He was an invaluable help overall during the first couple of months of the season, filling in for injured Miguel Sanó, starting 52 of the team’s 60 games.
 
But it took a while for most Twins fans to see Gonzalez as indispensable. He had a horrible first month offensively, batting .167, with a .501 OPS and 34 wRC+ in 23 games. Even though bad starts offensively have always been a part of his career, people started doubting him, on some level. Overall, he holds a .228 AVG, with a .675 OPS in his eight years in the league. Still, even specialists believed he was bound to lose at bats and become the third option to start at third base, once Willians Astudillo was having himself a hot start of the season. The Turtle was batting .327 with an .870 OPS by the end of April, so it was the natural choice then.
 
But then, things shifted. Since May 1st, he’s batting .304/.376/.500. In that span, only two other players drew more walks than him, who got 11. Also, Gonzalez has been left-handed pitchers’ nightmare, as he’s slashing .378/.425/.541 against them. He completely turned his season around. With 125 PA since the start of May, he’s been the fifth most used player in the offense, with more PA’s than everyday starters Jonathan Schoop and Byron Buxton, for example. He’s become a vital and dependable part of this MLB-best offense.
 
But that’s not even his biggest contribution. Not only is he doing some damage at the plate lately, but he’s also been playing Gold Glove-caliber defense. Being a bench player, he will never win such award, but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s an above average defender. And what’s more impressive about this? He does so in more than one position. Here are some defensive stats.
 
As a 3B (257.2 innings)
3 DRS
1.8 UZR
.989 FP
4 DPS
69 Assists
21 PO
1 Error (TE)
 
Gonzalez' three defensive runs saved would be tied for sixth best in MLB, if he qualified. He has as many as 2018 Gold Glove Award winner Nolan Arenado, who's already played over twice as many innings as him this year. He has saved more runs than players such as old friend Eduardo Escobar, Rafael Devers, Yoan Moncada, Matt Carpenter and José Ramírez, all of which have been on the field for at least 446 1/3 innings. Regarding his UZR, he would also be tied for sixth best in the game, beating names like Evan Longoria and Alex Bregman, the AL runner-up for the Gold Glove award last year.
 
When looking at his assists amount, he doesn’t rank very high in the league, but, of course, his sample time on the field is much smaller than the average everyday third baseman. If he had had the opportunity to play, say, 400 innings on the field, he would have an equivalent of 107 assists, which would rank him 5th in the league. Had he been there for 500 innings, we would be talking about a league second best 133 assists. But, of course, this is purely hypothetical mathematics.
 
As an OF (81 innings)
3 DRS
0.9 UZR
.933 FP
2 Assists
12 PO
1 error (FE)
 
In the outfield, Gonzalez also has a very small sample, which prevent him from competing with the everyday outfielder in the stats department. But, still, you can tell he’s not at all a bad defender there either. He has as many defensive runs saved as Mike Trout does and one more than NL MVP Christian Yelich. So, the Twins signed a player that, if starting regularly in his primary position, would compete for the league’s highest honours in defense. Not too shabby.
 
Far beyond the numbers, by watching Twins game on a daily basis, you can tell what a great defender he is. There hasn’t been a moment in which I’ve felt insecure about Twins defense in the hot corner or wherever “Margo” is on the field.
 
A lot of things could and should be fixed in the Twins roster. But having Gonzalez in the team guarantees that the bench isn’t one of them. It’s impossible to say for sure if Minnesota would be having the same success that they are having right now if he wasn’t a part of the team, but I imagine things would be much harder. Afterall, he might be the best and most prolific utility player in the game right now.

-SHTICKBALL-


In a stunning reversal of conscience, the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame will induct a member this summer who owes nearly all of his successes to the benefits of steroid use.
 
Former Commissioner Bud Selig has been elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame, despite his time overseeing the game running rampant with performance enhancing drugs, now a topic that makes any baseball player's Hall of Fame credentials wilt like Toons dropped in “The Dip”.
 
When inducted, Selig will become the first person in the Hall to have Performance Enhancing Drugs' sticky pine tar like residue on his hands. While some may consider it a dubious honor, it may actually open the flood gates for accused players to gain entry in the future, making Selig a trailblazer of steroids in his own right, normalizing something previously frowned upon, which Selig is probably comfortable with, like an owner becoming commissioner.
 
“The Hall is a very judicious place, and we only let in the most deserving of candidates.” Hall Chairman Jane Forbes Clark said. “ We're certainly excited to have Mr. Selig in the Hall, as he oversaw a time in baseball when there was a lot of growth and money and expansion and money and home runs and money.”
 
It's important to note that Selig was elected to the Hall of Fame by the Today's Game Era Committee, an absurdly confusing renaming of the Veteran's Committee. While this varies decidedly from the voting process used by the mostly pretentious and geriatric BBWAA, it's unclear if Selig would've made the Hall of Fame under a writer's vote, seeing as how he was as popular with the baseball loving public as Canadian rock band Nickelback.
 
The BBWAA has 'abstained' for the most part for electing any player whom has ever even heard of steroids, thus becoming the ever-vigilant keepers to the Hall of Fame that no one really ever asked them to be. The same process was not in the cards for Selig, which is an important reminder of how Major League Baseball will do whatever it wants, no matter how wildly unpopular the decision is.
 
Regardless of his relative unpopularity, some fans are still defending Selig's merits.
 
“Yeah, I think Bud should be in. I mean, he benefitted in every way possible from steroid use, but the fact is he never actually took steroids, and that's the most important thing.” One unnamed Milwaukee resident said, “Guys who took it just to recover from an injury once, guys who were already Hall of Famers before they started using, and guys that were rumored to use them but it was never proven, those guys are the real frauds here.”
 
Along with his bold stance of ignoring steroid use, Selig will likely be remembered for his other work in baseball as well, such as canceling the 1994 World Series as acting commissioner due to a strike, or declaring the All Star Game a tie in his own hometown, then making it count towards the World Series from then on, or moving his family's baseball team into a more lucrative league, and moving the Astros out of the very same league years later, ensuring daily interleague play, rendering it meaningless.
 
So congratulations to Bud Selig, Performance Enhancing Drugs Trailblazer, and the first guilty as sin person from the steroid era to join the Hall of Fame.