Loosey

I say draft him and don't look back. My reasons are: 1) He is the consensus best player / most upside in the draft. 2) He is a pitcher that could be Ace material a few years down the road. 3) Since drafting pitchers is risky for a multitude of reasons, injuries, doesn't improve, etc, this kid would probably be a high round pick as a shortstop. So if something happens on the pitching front, he actually would have a 2nd shot at becoming a Major League SS, and possibly a very good one.

I just don't understand how he could hit an offspeed pitch a week ago, and now they are like a mystical thing he has never seen before without it being all in his head. When he struck out in his first at bat of the season I was concerned he might subconsciously start pressing to prove he is better than that and it would snow ball.

First of all it's only 3 games. Yes, it the first 3 games which exacerbates it, but lots of players go on 1-15 stretches. The strikeouts and swings and misses on off-speed stuff is somewhat concerning but overall I like that his swings are more aggressive this year compared to last year's timid defensive swings. He could hit the ball in Spring Training. I know Spring Training stats are meaningless, but going from hitting the ball relatively hard consistently to striking out 70% of the time shouldn't happen and is hopefully a small sample of bad AB's. I think he is pressing a bit and trying to do too much. One or two hard hits and I think he will progress more towards last September's performance instead of continuing with his old listless AB's.

Buxton's results weren't great, but he definitely didn't look like Buxton of last May/June. He was taking solid swings and was not chasing garbage. In his 2nd AB against Duffey, he just missed one and fouled it straight back and then when he put it in play he hit it hard. I don't know how he does it but it seems like Buxton always has a 2 strike count. Also, on his 3rd strikeout he wasn't fooled by the breaking ball that he got from Moylan. He was on it but just seemed to be hair ahead of it. Hopefully he gets that timing down better because that breaking ball, even though he was on it, was a hanger that could have been crushed.

I agree. I don't necessarily like "giving up" on a season either because the future is never certain and I would like to see them be relevant again right now. But if the right circumstances came around to perhaps bolster the roster for years beyond next season I could get on board. Where I think making this sort of trade would be problematic is from a PR stand point. If the team is in contention and they trade their best pitcher for a bunch of guys the casual fan has never heard of and most likely will not see for a year or two, they could lose some fan interest in a hurry.

Honestly I hope the Twins are winning baseball games and still trade Santana for future reinforcements. I don't want a team that eventually becomes good for a year or two then fizzles out as guys age or move on in free agency, etc. I want a team that gets good and stays good due to wise front office decisions in the the years prior to and during good seasons. The Twins have 104 games scheduled up until the trade deadline. If they are are around 54-50 I think most fans would be happy. But most likely they will still be 5+ games out of first in the central and a few out of the wild card race. If they have that record most of the young core will likely have performed well. I would be fine trading the staff ace at that point in order to get more young pieces to plug in now and in the future.

Personally I am ok with the offseason. It wasn't splashy and didn't produce much of a tangible increase in talent but, outside of pitching, where are long-term needs that are currently known on the offensive side of the ball? The outfield is young, fast and potentially elite defensively with Buxton, Rosario and Kepler. Sano is the 3rd baseman. Dozier is implanted at 2nd until he is moved at which point Polanco will move there. First base is currently being held down by Mauer and $23M a year contract as well as Park and Vargas as future pieces. Shortstop is an area that could have been addressed but the team chose to keep Polanco in the majors and have a possibly above average bat for a shortstop, with less than desired defense. But signed up Ehire Adrianza as a defensive addition there and Escobar as the utility infielder. They signed Castro at catcher as well as Gimenez with Garver waiting with Murphy. They attempted to improve the pitching through a trade, but didn't get what they wanted and passed, which I think was the right move as of now. If they feel the team is not going to compete this season (which I doubt they are) why go out and spend a bunch of money on relief arms and starters this year? That is wasting money and a contract year, when they can do that next year if they think it will help them get over the hump. I'm fine with this for now: Santana - Could be traded for younger version of himself Gibson - Maybe this is finally the year Santiago - meh, if he is good he could be flipped as well Hughes - meh Duffy/Mejia/Berrios - No team has 5 #1 starters. The Twins have a #2 starter, a #3 and 3 other guys who could be anywhere from future #1 to AAAA type. I like they are rolling with this for now and will adjust on the fly as they see fit.

I'm guessing we see an increase in OBP a decrease in HR but BA slightly above his career average. I'll go with: .260/.350/.490 (.840) 31 HR

My expectations are relatively high for him this year. Why? Because for the first time in 5 years there are no expectations, improved strength, flexibility, eye sight, etc. It seems this year he is just a baseball player coming in after a subpar season. Everyone gets banged up over the course of the season and then heals up going into spring. Due to this I expect him bat around .315 going into June. However, because of his performance Molitor will begin playing him too much and the batting average will decline until Molitor realizes the rest is what got him to the .315 range. . Final Line: .291/.397/.409 8 HR

This is a huge bummer. I was really hoping I had misunderstood Watkins the other day. Still think he has a bright future, happy he isn't a pitcher! I know the theme of this thread is why didn't they address this sooner, and I have the same questions. Was there a setback with his rehab, was it worse than originally thought? You would think if it is torn, you fix it surgically, if not do you wait to see if it gets better, or until it tears fully? I don't understand the whole thing enough.

I agree with this partially. I don't think he needs to be traded "as soon as possible". I think all three of the guys you listed will continue to get better and add value over the next year +. Some may leap frog others. Maybe Gordon has a breakout year, or Javier starts to fly up the system, etc. As you, me and many others have mentioned the Twins likely are not contending for a WS this year, and as of today there isn't a log jam at SS. So no need to sell too soon. If by the end of this season the Team has 3 potential above average SS's, then great and leverage it at a time when there is a solid return on the other side.

There really is something special about the forums here on Twins Daily. The moderators are a huge part of that. I have never posted a comment on any other website such as ESPN, Strib, etc, yet somehow I am well about 1000 posts on Twins Daily. If the feeling of community is something John Bonnes and crew were going for I think they succeeded. I have never met any of you in person, yet I feel like I know many of your personalities and views on many things Twins related. Here's to another 50 years!

I've always wanted to attend one of the events but have not been able to make one yet. That being said I think TD has a large enough following and (I assume) a majority localized to the Twin Cities or a least Minnesota that if a bar around Target Field would be willing to become an official "Twins Daily Pre/Post-Game Bar". I personally think something like that would really help give people many of us "internet only" TD'ers a chance to meet others since I assume a lot of us go to games.

What was the market for him last year when the Twins got him? Weren't the Twins sort of shocked they got him for the $13M posting fee they bid? That sort of tells me that even before he had MLB experience no one was willing to make a commitment to him. Now that he has shown what type of MLB player he was for 1 year, the interest is even less. Does anyone know who posted the 2nd most for Park last year? And how much was it?

So was I. But only after Dozier is traded.

I'll start to worry about the pitch framing carrying too much weight when we get Robot Umpires. But since Castro's deal is only 3 years, I don't think we will have to worry about it.

I think Adrianza at shortstop is a backfill role for the "Just in case we trade Dozier during the season". A contending team is one 2B injury away from a making a trade for Dozier.

I seem to recall the new front office stating relatively bluntly that wholesale changes will not happen overnight. Most people I think assumed they meant in regards to firing and hiring new people within the front office. But I think the statement can be blanketed to cover the on-field staff and players as well. They didn't come here to fix everything prior to spring training of this year, they have time. A Dozier trade would have been nice, but they apparently didn't get what they thought was necessary. Maybe a scorching 1st half for Dozier ups the price people are willing to pay for him. Either way just because the team hasn't built the future for 2018-2019 yet doesn't mean they can't still or won't.

Good work on finding this. I wonder if his vision and slowed reactions due to concussions have an effect on judging pitches that are not down the middle. If his swing hasn't slowed (I don't know if it has or hasn't) then something like sight, timing or judgement could be a cause for this. If that is the case no number of analytics will help him unfortunately.

It's amazing he was able to play any level of professional baseball with 20/50 vision. I was around 20/75 before lasik and felt I was near blind without contacts or glasses.

My thoughts on Dozier are if you can't maximize is value or at least get back what you think he is worth do not make the trade right now. There is no rule anywhere that says he needs to be traded before the season starts. It would be nice and would put a stamp on regimes list of accomplishments. If there is more value at the deadline you can trade him then, or next offseason his value might diminish some but then the return will be more on par if it is similar to what they are being offered now.

If I place bets with Minnesota sports team, I always bet against them. That way when they lose I can be happy I won money and when they win, the happiness of the win offsets by pain of losing money. My own emotional betting hedge.

This is different that not trading Perkins. The market for Dozier is ice cold. De Leon could become a superstar, or he could be just a middle of the road starting pitcher or worse. I want multiple lottery tickets to improve my chances of hitting on one.

Here is my question. Let's say Dozier stays with the team all year long. Dozier hits 30 HR's and bats .250 with an .830 OPS. De Leon has a decent rookie year 3.90 ERA with a FIP around 4 and 9 SO/9. If the Dodgers are still a 2B short next year, is De Leon for Dozier straight up better deal since the Dodgers now only get 1 year of Dozier and De Leon is more of known commodity? Or do De Leon's stats diminish his value and Dozier increases his by following up 2016 with a nice 2017?

I agree.