diehardtwinsfan

I guess the real question for me was what caused his drop off in the second half. His final results were 'acceptable' offensively for a SS, but not what I want to see in a top prospect. He got off to a fantastic start, maintaining an .800 OPS into (if memory serves me right) August. Finishing with a .723 is concerning. Is it just not being used to the rigors of playing baseball full time, or that the FSL caught up to him? Glad he hit the AFL running.

The whole part of buying that out is spreading the risk around while giving some cost certainty to both sides. I think in general that is a good thing (though I'd have fought hard for that 1st year of FA). The Twins should be looking to do this with guys like Sano and Buxton once they start to mature as well.

So I would note that as tech, we are far more diversified than most places. Those self driving cars, we are there. Robotics, we are there. Cloud, we are there. Security, we are there. etc. You're right though, you aren't diversified. The flip side is that I think in terms of value, technology right now is finally starting to reach the promise that was expected out of them during the dot com bubble. I don't think that sector will be as volatile... Now that said, if you're looking for up and coming, I think the next big movement within tech may be security firms. Companies are getting the rear ends handed to them by hackers. Finding the next big security firm would probably yield a good payday.

well, setting aside short term, I have no complaints about MSFT (full disclosure, I work for them). Share price has gone up about 20% in the two years I've been there. Our cloud solutions are growing at absurd rates right now, and that's a high margin line of business. I own shares in my 401k account, and I haven't sold off any of my vesting shares either. edit: they pay dividends as well.

Well, with the dollar starting to fall, gold, silver, and really any commodity would make for a decent short term play. Not a bad way to be up 10% or so in a month. Then sell and get something else.

To me, the Twins have always needed a decent bat off the bench. That's where a Mauer/Park/Vargas platoon for 1B/DH will consistently leave them with a decent bat off the bench. Mauer isn't the power threat obviously, but a good bet to work the count and get on base. That can be valuable subbing for a weaker hitter in front of some of the power guys.

I'm not sure I'd call it timing the market. It simply involves paying attention to signals and investing accordingly. Technical trading works, and with pretty good odds. You don't have to time it perfectly, just position yourself when the market starts putting in the red flags. You win far more than you lose, you get in trouble when you try and time the market to maximize profits.

I think the main problem with adding bats is at the end of the day, there aren't many positions we can improve. You have lots of young talent that just needs repetition more than anything else. Catcher was the biggest weakness. We might help the framing aspect of things, for whatever that is actually worth, but Castro isn't a good hitter. The OF needs time mostly. Sano needs time at 3rd. SS didn't have much for options. Escobar is a fine placeholder, and there's decent options in the high minors. 1B could improve, but Mauer isn't going anywhere. So yeah, it's back to the rotation. At least next year there will be some decent FA options there.

I suppose it's possible for him to have a healthy year and post a couple .800 OPS seasons towards the end of his career, but unfortunately, he's really fallen off the proverbial cliff. Wish him well. I hope Molitor is smart enough to play him a bit less going forward, especially with Park and Vargas likely to make the team. That might help keep him fresh.

Yeah, I'm really wondering where this idea is coming from that TR caved when it came to making trades. He only made them when he got value back, and he wasn't known to make them that often at all. His main criticism (and rightfully so in some cases) was holding out for too much value.

I guess I'm not seeing how you come to the former in this case. Every time Smith was in a position where he was being forced to make a trade (Santana, Hardy, Garza), he got absolutely raked over the coals. Oh, I forgot Capps... Smith did OK with cost effective pickups during a tight race (Rausch for example), but when he was in a situation like we are with BD, he did the 'take what you can get strategy' and got absolutely nothing. In all of those cases, he would have been better off holding his cards then playing them. I'm not sure the Dozier trade is really any different. Maybe Levi is right and there was far more on the table there and the Twins were being greedy, but based on every press report out there, it's JDL and nothing else special. That is pretty much the definition of a Bill Smith trade. He'd have taken that and that would have been that. A big part of getting value in trades is knowing when to walk away and being willing to do so. I'm disappointed, but truthfully, I'm not surprised. F&L were going to get tested. That may mean failing to trade Dozier, but it also makes real clear to the 29 other GMs that they aren't going to take their scraps.

With the exception of the other team, it's kind of sad that there's people like that. Hope the kid proves them wrong.

Well, I trade options, though I always hedge them to minimize losses. I get what you're saying, and you're right that it can stay irrational longer than solvent. I tend to use ETFs that move inverse the market for some of that. Not as much risk (or reward) in that scenario, which I'm fine with. That's just like buying/selling stocks at that point, except these go up when the market goes down and vice versa. That said, if you do technical trading at all, you can see plenty of signs of a top in the market. That's pretty normal, which I guess is my point. Barring a crash, it just means a temporary 10-20% correction. I'm not saying short the whole thing, but I think there's a ton of merit right now in allocating some spare funds to hedge your long positions and take a quick profit or closing a few winners that are overbought. PS... oil should be in a bubble. There's a huge glut of supply right now and it is not shrinking... I refuse to touch that one.

Oh I agree. Ryan was the example of a guy who wasn't got to make a move unless he got good value. Probably too much so in some cases. The flip side though is just as bad, if not worse.

Yeah, I don't think the hesitancy is to appease TR loyalists or anything of the sort. I think it has to do with the fact that TR wasn't the only conservative player out there when it came to dealing talent, and that there was good reason for it. TR made his fair share of mistakes, don't get me wrong, but he had a reputation of wanting value when he made trades, and it's a large part of why this team was competitive during the 2000s. You're right though that the trade needs to happen. The real problem though is if no one gives any real value for BD. If LA is the only bidder and won't offer more than JDL + junk, I'm likely to side with F&L and say keep him. That sets a bad precedent and leaves an enormous amount of risk here, the largest of which is that JDL fails and that valuable asset got us nothing but wasted time.

Have we forgotten the Bill Smith era already? He did some great things with international signings, but part of the reason this org is where it is right now is due to the talent that got given away for nothing... and he did far more than once.

Of note, I find it interesting in Stewarts case that there's a lack of mention about some of the other guys in the situation. LA still has DeJong or whatever his name is and guys like McCarthy as well. Even without Stewart and JDL, they are sitting about 8 or so deep for options. Don't get me wrong, Stewart and JDL are certainly better options than some of them, but they are hardly hurting for SP help in that scenario. If that's the concern, then throw in Buehler instead... but again, he's not an option. Shs_59 is right. If a guy like Stewart isn't an option for a second piece, then there's a big problem. Like or not, that problem is JDL + junk.

Think the problem is that when it corrects, those gains get wiped out in a hurry. That's party of why I tend to stay in shorter term positions usually going long in positions that have broken out so to speak. I just don't stay there. A 20% drop in the market would wipe out just about all of those gains. Yes, you'll get it back, but I'm not a fan of trying to catch a falling sword.

Honestly, I think this a great short term play. Whether you think inflation is good or not, the Fed does, and based on their policies, they have to bring that dollar down. The USD just broke below it's moving average and can move all the way down to the low to mid 90s while still remaining in a bull market. That move is roughly 10%, so you should see a nice spike in most commodities during that time. Silver might be a better play given that it tends to out perform gold in that scenario.

Well for one, the dollar strengthening has been a catalyst for these types of moves of late. This crushes the carry trade as well as all debt denominated in dollars (which makes up a huge chunk of foreign debt). It destroys corporate profits overseas as well (if you look at the recent corrections, they correlate with a strengthening dollar). It's already causing major problems for the Chinese, but it's not just them. It's already forcing a number of nations to start defending their currencies. The fed has been trying hard to get inflation into the system, and in spite of that the dollar has risen due in large part to the BOJ. The problem with this approach is that once you get that inflation, it's much like trying to get ketchup out of a glass bottle. You end up with far more of it than you wanted. That causes other issues, and you're about to see it. As others have noted, the market is already moving more in line with an expectation of inflation. Three of the four major inflation indicators (and we all know those numbers are already heavily massaged) are showing inflation above 2%. That will force rates up, quite possibly faster than the 2-3 rate hikes being predicted (that's another big negative for the market). That is going to also cause plenty of other real problems, particular with countries that have too much debt because as a strengthening dollar makes it more expensive to pay them off, so do higher rates. As I mentioned as well, right now we are looking at historically bad P/E ratios. Stocks are going to figure this out at some point, and when they do, the market is going to correct. I'd consider locking in some gains and potentially moving some cash into assets that will perform well in that scenario. I guess most of that depends on your strategy. I'm not really a buy and hold guy anymore. I trade options in my IRA and use the brokerage link in my 401K to make short to mid-term trades. I usually sell once I'm up between 10-20%.

to me, it's the sign of an irrational market. Price to earning ratios are at historically bad levels and the market continues to rise. That's another sign that a correction is due. I think 10-20% drop across the board is pretty reasonable in the near future. It sucks, but stocks are always the last to get it and there are some pretty big problems right now that the market is largely ignoring.

Is Buehler even a top 100 prospect? For some reason I didn't think he was. I do like him as well. He's likely a fast riser, and his fall in the draft was not due to potential but injury. He's got ace upside, but... he's got a grand total of 5 innings pitched in the minors due to said injury... 5. 2017 will most likely be a getting used to the grind type year, and due to the injury his workload will be monitored and his stamina is highly likely to fall off. This means that even being a possible fast riser, he's not sniffing the rotation until mid 2018 at best. Personally, I'd prefer Stewart here as he's ML ready now and has modest upside as well... but he's off the table too apparently. Honestly, if a JDL/Buehler package wasn't on the table... well... again, I have to think LA is lowballing us pretty bad. There's an enormous amount of risk with Buehler. He's a high upside pick that has a lot of risk attached to him. But if even that isn't a worthy 2nd player, then I hate to think what they want added for a 3rd player. You can forget guys like Ruiz or Lux. If Buehler wasn't on the table as a second piece, there's no way guys like that would have been available as a final piece. I'm with drjim or RB here. You don't trade in that scenario. I get that LA may be high on him. That's fine. But you have to give value to get it.

Isn't that exactly what De Leon is at this point?

the dollar broke below it's moving average yesterday and is maintaining that today. If you make short term plays, things like silver, gold, any commodity really, should all see a nice pop while the dollar loses a few points. Might be an easy 10-20% short term ROI. The market could correct down too. Really looks like a top is forming here.

cannot say I understand the angst on Gibson. 3 years in the majors guys... last year he was lights out for a long period of time and struggled through injuries this year. Not sure who the real Gibson is, but I don't think that is one to give up on.