chpettit19

I'm pretty notorious for not caring much about coaching at all. But I couldn't have faith in the current staff because they're yet another new group.

Oh, I'm certainly hoping there's a dozen statistical outliers. I just don't judge moves based on that hope. I don't hate this move. It's the type of move I expected. I just don't love the move either. It's defensible and I hope Bell does well.

Bader brought elite defense. That was always going to be the case. He was always going to be useful in that way. He's an awful comp here. And he had .9 WAR in 2024. If that isn't "touching 1" I don't know what is. His problem was health. He had .6 WAR in 98 games in 2023. Could Bell put up a 130 OPS+? Sure. Julien could, too. Lewis could put up 160. Wallner 150. Larnach 125. Then the Twins are winning the division by 10 games and fighting for a title. "Can" is a terrible metric. What are the likelihoods? That's all that matters. Falvey has been building off the "can" for years and it's gone very poorly because the most likely outcomes are the ones that keep happening. The strategy of "if everybody has career years, we're golden" is a bad strategy. We certainly all hope it happens every year but expecting it is bad team building. It's what the Twins have been doing for years. And it's why they continue to struggle.

You don't even need WAR to show Josh Bell is a below average 1B/DH. His offensive numbers alone do that. He played 1B 33 times last year because he's terrible there. Has been his whole career. That isn't a new idea. He was the DH 98 times. Amongst DHs with 100 PAs at the "position," he ranked 35th in OPS. 36th in slug. 28th in OBP. 40th in Avg. Don't need WAR to tell you that those numbers aren't good for one of the worst defenders in baseball.

Sure. I'll take the under on Josh Bell being a 2-3 WAR bat. I mean he hasn't even sniffed 1 WAR in 3 years. That is just not a reasonable projection for him. Do I hope he does that? Absolutely. But a realistic projection for Josh Bell is 0 WAR.

How many DHs in baseball make 15 million a year? 4. And the Rangers are not at all happy paying Joc that. Are you suggesting teams will put Josh Bell in that category after he puts up 1 season? He better put up Schwarber numbers this year if he's going to get that. I'll take the under.

Yeah, I don't think it's a terrible move, but that's because I expect them to be out of it by the end of April and the Pohlads to tell Falvey to dump the rest of Bell's salary. I don't hate the move because I think they'll trade him, I just don't think it's the plan as of December 15, 2025. I lean towards him just trying to save his job, but if he didn't think this team was any good he'd trade Ryan for sure, and I truly don't think he has any intention of doing it.

Oh, I don't at all know better. I 100% believe Falvey is trying to compete in 2026. I don't know if he believes they can actually pull it off or if he's just making 1 last gasp effort to save his job, but I have been saying since the deadline I didn't think he was blowing things up in any real sense (in his mind) and was going to try to compete in 2026. I fully and completely believe Derek Falvey thinks he just made a meaningful deal that will help this team be good in 2026.

His career splits are actually quite similar. Adding another lefty only bat to the DH pile isn't very useful. He needs to get back to his career numbers against lefties or he's not all that useful here. And he played 33 games at 1B last year. How much many more days off in the field does he need? It isn't an awful move by any means. But let's not make Josh Bell into more than he is.

The Twins are trying to claim they are trying to be a good team, though. And people here are going to claim the same thing, and point to this signing as a reason to believe they can be. I'm on a crusade to make it known far and wide that the Twins are not going to be the team so many want them to be until we stop accepting that these are top half of the order hitters. We've been so conditioned now that people are really struggling to look at the team and compare it realistically to what the actual good lineups look like. I've made it my mission to annoy everyone by pointing this out constantly.

Yet another bat being presented as a "top half of the order" hitter who has no business hitting there on a good team. His last 3 OPS+ marks were 101, 100, and 110. We need to stop pretending like these are bats that make the team competitive if they're in the top half. They aren't. We've had this same problem since 2019. Kepler and Larnach are the 2 players that stand out most to me as getting way too many ABs in the top 4 or 5 of the lineup and people using them hitting there as proof the team can't/shouldn't move on from them. They aren't actually top half of the lineup bats. Not on real contenders, at least. Josh Bell is more of the same. The Twins have been "raising the floor" for years. That floor keeps getting lower and lower. I don't think this "raise the floor" plan is working very well. This isn't some egregious move. It's not a bad move in a vacuum. If you can flip him at the deadline for any sort of piece at all, that's not bad. But the idea that these types of moves are going to turn a 70-win team into a contender for the division is ridiculous. Their only hope remains that half the returning lineup puts up career years. You can judge for yourself how likely you think that is. This move didn't move the needle in any serious way. Maybe 1 more win.

Boras doing Boras things. I assume the option was added as a way to spread out the money. I can't imagine either side has any plans to actually reunite for 2027, but it gave the Twins a way to pay him part now and part in 2027 so Boras demanded the total be a little higher for that manipulation by the Twins.

Not a whole lot to say about this one. Far prefer his bat to Clemens, but he's yet another DH on this team. For his career he's been pretty balanced between his numbers against lefties and righties, but last year he was atrocious against lefties. The hope has to be that he bounces back from that as he'll start every day against them while he's healthy and with the Twins. At this point it's an unsurprising "meh" of a deal. He doesn't significantly improve their odds of even competing in the central, but maybe it's a good sign that they went out and got someone before February. Hopefully more moves to come.

1 year, 7 million with a mutual option for 2027.

Not sure where they'd want to put Larnach. Wouldn't think he's pushing Ward, Cowser, or Beavers out of the outfield or pushing Alonso, Rutschman or Basallo out of the DH rotation. Weirder things have happened, but I can't imagine Larnach is high on their list of desires from the Twins. I'd think it's pitching, pitching, and more pitching that they'd ask for.

Baseball Savant

Mountcastle would be such a disappointing move, but I think it's probably a realistic one. I don't think Mayo is realistic. Mayo would cost current pitching talent, and if the Twins are moving that they need to go full rebuild and they don't appear to have any real plans to do that. Mountcastle would be yet another uninspiring, 1 year addition that doesn't move the needle in a meaningful way. Unfortunately, I think Mountcastle is a real possibility if they can't get Hoskins, Goldschmidt, or whatever other uninspiring FA 1B. It's what they do. Run back nearly the exact same disappointing roster from the previous year, tell us they believe in the talent of the core, and add 1 year, bargain bin guys. Rince and repeat.

Kim's arm was still better than Lee's last year. He had the 22nd best arm amongst shortstops last year. In other words, better than 7 other starting SS. Certainly not as good as when he was a top 10-15 arm at the position, but still hanging on to SS worthy. Better arm than gold glove winning Jeremy Pena and JP Crawford, multiple time gold glove winner Dansby Swanson, superstars Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, and Bo Bichette, significantly better than Brooks Lee, glove only Taylor Walls, the guy an article on here suggested the Twins should go get for SS yesterday CJ Abrams, and essentially the same arm as all world defender Andres Gimenez. I think you're severely overstating Kim's arm struggles last year.

I've thought they've had a pretty solid minor league system for a while. They've been missing athleticism, but they've done well to adjust there. But prospects will always be a numbers game. It's why I want more. People throw around the "log jam" idea all the time and it drives me crazy. There's no such thing as a log jam of prospects. There's no such thing as a redundancy of prospects. We'll see what this wave does. I'd just prefer making the wave bigger to give them the best chance at success. I have a Master Class subscription. I just enjoy learning things, so I watch a session almost every day. I'm still waiting for the Pohlad's picture to pop up at the top of my screen one of these days to showcase their class in how to destroy a company. I prefer to learn from successes, but there's still lessons in failures. I'd watch that class for sure. If I were running things, I'd be shopping Ryan this offseason. I'd have told Buxton I don't plan to have Ryan, Lopez, or Ober in the rotation by the end of 2026 to see if he still wants to be here. If he doesn't, I'd be shopping him too. Ober I would hold until the deadline because I expect him to build a little more value by showing he's healthy and back to his previous self. Lopez I'd go either way. It's a balance with him between the length of control and him showing he's healthy again. If I got a great deal this offseason, I'd move him. If not, I'd hold him until the deadline. I'd trade Jeffers this offseason. None of those 5 guys would be on my 2027 roster.

My gut is telling me Paul Goldschmidt. That may be because I'm in a bad place when it comes to my faith in this FO right now. But that's just what it feels like their moves are going to be.

I'm fascinated to see what "power bat" and bullpen pieces they bring in, assuming they actually follow the plan they've put out. Will be interesting to see what their idea of good enough pieces are to salvage this thing. It's going to be an interesting offseason, even if it's not in the way I'd prefer.

If they're making player decisions based off what they think the fans will like, they're already doomed. They've lost fans. Running this thing back like this isn't helping fan relations. I'd argue a roster full of Jenkins, Culpepper, Prielipp, Abel, etc. would actually help their early season ticket sales. Every part of me wishes they'd pick a lane. That's been my argument since the deadline. I said then and I've been saying ever since that that wasn't the start of a rebuild, it was them trying to play both sides of the fence. And I think it's going to turn out horribly. Maybe everything clicks to start the year and I look like a fool for the one millionth time on this site. But I'd say the odds are far better that they struggle to start the year. And hopefully that leads to them truly leaning into the rebuild and moving Ryan, Lopez, Buxton, Jeffers, whoever has value and isn't under contract/control for years to come. It's certainly a possibility, but it's not without risk. Ryan or Lopez blow out an elbow and now you've lost their trade value completely and don't have them to help your team at all either. It's why I'd prefer they just dive into the rebuild this winter. I'd guess Falvey is feeling the heat and he's trying to make 1 last ditch effort to save his job. I think it's going to hurt the Twins for years to come after he's gone. But we'll see. I'll tune in no matter what. Like I know most around here will.

The Twins were below .500 before and after the trade deadline. The whole team was the problem from the beginning of the season. They didn't blow up the pen for the last 2 months because they were doing great. Why were they losing when the guys who pitched were Duran, Jax, Varland, and Stewart?

I'd bet there are more than 3 AAAA in most lineups according to my opinion. But I'm not the one arguing that the 10 guys you listed are a good base for a competitive MLB team. I gave you the numbers. I don't need to see all the lineups. The 10 guys you listed got essentially 80% of the PAs in August and September. My argument is that those 10 guys do not make up a good base for a competitive MLB team. And August and September is a great data set to help prove my point. Could the Twins switch out 5 of those guys for better players and then have a completely different lineup? Absolutely. But I don't expect them to. And I don't think you do either. I hope the Twins bring in a "power bat." But they aren't (weren't) shopping in the Alonzo aisle. They aren't shopping in the Tucker aisle. They're shopping in the Hoskins, Goldschmidt, Lowe aisle. And I don't think that moves the needle at all. Fangraphs says they think this roster could win 82 games next year. I disagree with that whole heartedly. You don't. And that's all good. It's why this site is fun, because we can have these disagreements and talk Twins and baseball in general like we all like to do. I hope you're right in your view. I've been championing the Twins the last several offseasons and believed they were good enough to compete. I was wrong. The roster has only gotten worse in terms of current talent. So now my opinion is that they should blow it up completely and give themselves an improved chance in 2028 and beyond instead of wasting trade value on guys who won't be here when they can truly be competitive. The only arguments I see for the Twins winning 80+ games in 2026 are either the Twins switch out a good half of the current 26-man roster or everybody on it significantly improves their performance. I don't like the odds of either of those things. But I'm happy to be wrong.

No, you showed 14 games worth of lineups. I gave you the entire data set. Why does it matter that you list it as 1 position? They're still 10 of the 13 guys they can roster. Or, if they send Roden down it's to keep Outman who's out of options. And the point remains; you're running back almost the exact same roster as the last 2 months of the season. No, I can't admit that because I've given you the numbers and the lineups won't be significantly different. You're suggesting they add 1 bat. So now you're at 11 of 13 spots filled. The last 2 spots likely go to guys that are already on the 40-man, right? One of those will be Alex Jackson. The last one is likely Kreidler, Outman, Julien, or Fitzgerald, right? That means you've changed 2 position player spots from the end of the season until 2026. The 1 FA bat we have to hope they add and the backup catcher. So, like I said, 90% of why you believe they can win 80ish games is because you simply expect the guys that were already here to play better. And they might. But the odds aren't great. And I'm glad you have hope. I absolutely hope you're right. I just don't see it. "Everybody will just play better" isn't a strategy that gives me the warm and fuzzies. Especially when most of those guys are in their late 20s or 30s.