John Bonnes

Beat Vegas to win a Harry’s Razor starter kit! What the hell just happened? Despite enormous changes, the A's continued the 2015 season the way they left the 2014 season - by winning far fewer games than a team with a decent run differential should. They finished with only 68 wins, though their run differential said they should've been closer to 77. Billy Beane wheeled and dealed this offseason, so nobody knows what to expect.Vegas’ Line: 75.5 wins What The Line Is Saying "I don't know exactly what they're doing over there, but I know I don't trust them." They’ll Beat Vegas If… Only one team in the AL West is going to finish with less than 75.5 wins. If the Mariners or Angels melt down, Oakland will clear the 76 wins they need to beat Vegas. If you beat Vegas, you can win a free Harry’s Razor starter set. Just leave a comment with your choice of the “Over” or” Under” and your reasoning. At the end of the season, for each team, we’ll randomly pick one of the winning predictions for a free Truman Razor set. They’ll Lose To Vegas If… If they're the worst team in the AL West, they're not going to hit that number…. I’ll Bet The…. UNDER ….and they look like the worst team in the AL West. Plus, if Beane can sell any pieces for anything of value at the trade deadline, he'll certainly do it. Now it’s your turn. Give us your prediction in the comment section (you’ll need to register first) and you’re automatically entered. We’ll be giving out a free Harry’s Razor Truman Set to one of the winning correct predictions for each team, so we’ll be give away 15 sets of razors! You can also click over to Harry’s Razors and get $5 off on your first order using the promo code ‘gleeman’. You can stop by to pick another team tomorrow. Or prior to 4/5/16, you can also enter a prediction for any of the previous teams we’ve covered. Here they are: AL EAST Baltimore Orioles Tampa Bay Rays New York Yankees Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays Click here to view the article

Beat Vegas to win a Harry’s Razor starter kit! Boom. A couple of midseason pickups launched the Jays to a second half surge that moved them from also-ran to dominant AL East Beast. They won 93 games and had a Pythagorean win total of 103 games, but now must figure out how to compete without David Price at the top of their rotation (and at the top of a division rival's).Vegas’ Line: 87.5 wins What The Line Is Saying Boy, were you good last year. Just SO GOOD. Even without Price, you're good enough to edge out this division." They’ll Beat Vegas If… The rotation is competent and the offense continues to treat baseballs the way Donald Trump wants to treat, well, seemingly everyone. If you beat Vegas, you can win a free Harry’s Razor starter set. Just leave a comment with your choice of the “Over” or” Under” and your reasoning. At the end of the season, for each team, we’ll randomly pick one of the winning predictions for a free Truman Razor set. They’ll Lose To Vegas If… The big knockers in that lineup are all on the wrong side of 30. The fade might not happen this year - but it also might. And now each of the members of the rotation finds himself stepping up a notch in the rotation. Finally, there was plenty of drama this offseason in the front office when they fired GM Alex Anthopoulos after a 93-win season. There are plenty of ingredients for a meltdown here. I’ll Bet The…. OVER It's not like there are no concerns, but every team in the AL East has those same concerns. This team feels like it's at least a year away from losing their swagger, and I can't say the same for any other team in the division. Somebody has to win this division, and I think that team will be the Blue Jays. Now it’s your turn. Give us your prediction in the comment section (you’ll need to register first) and you’re automatically entered. We’ll be giving out a free Harry’s Razor Truman Set to one of the winning correct predictions for each team, so we’ll be give away 15 sets of razors! You can also click over to Harry’s Razors and get $5 off on your first order using the promo code ‘gleeman’. Stop by tomorrow for more chance. And, prior to 4/5/16, you can also enter a prediction for any of the previous teams we’ve covered. Here they are: AL EAST Baltimore Orioles Tampa Bay Rays New York Yankees Boston Red Sox Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about Jose Berrios, Kennys Vargas, and Nick Burdi being sent to the minors, Trevor May officially going to the bullpen, over/under picks for the American League West, a last chance to win a pair of 20-game Twins season ticket packages, Carlos Quentin making things interesting, Tinder super likes, the therapeutic properties of macaroni and cheese at Mason's, and a new basketball podcast from Britt Robson and David Brauer.You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click the Play button below. Click here to view the article

Beat Vegas and win a Harry’s Razor starter kit! The question before last year was either "How can the Red Sox NOT win with that lineup" or "How can the Red Sox win with that rotation?" The team was true to form, ended up with 78 wins, good for last place in the AL East. This offseason, they bandaged up their rotation with a hell of a Bandaid: they signed David Price.Vegas’ Line: 86.5 wins What The Line Is Saying "How can the Red Sox NOT win with that lineup (and David Price)?" They’ll Beat Vegas If… Price is Price AND a few of the other arms step up. Also, Xander Boegarts & Mookie Betts reveals the location of the Fountain of Youth to David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval and Dustin Pedroia. If you beat Vegas, you can win a free Harry’s Razor starter set. Just leave a comment with your choice of the “Over” or” Under” and your reasoning. At the end of the season, for each team, we’ll randomly pick one of the winning predictions for a free Truman Razor set. They’ll Lose To Vegas If… The lineup gets old. Strike that - they're already old. Make that "The various calcified joints throughout the Red Sox lineup embrace death's sweet release." I’ll Bet The…. UNDER I like the Red Sox rotation quite a bit more than last year, but that lineup looks like they are ready to age faster than an evil extra in an Indiana Jones film. Now it’s your turn. Give us your prediction in the comment section (you’ll need to register first) and you’re automatically entered. We’ll be giving out a free Harry’s Razor Truman Set to one of the winning correct predictions for each team, so we’ll be give away 15 sets of razors! You can also click over to Harry’s Razors and get $5 off on your first order using the promo code ‘gleeman’. We'll have another team tomorrow. Finally, prior to 4/5/16, you can also enter a prediction for any of the previous teams we’ve covered. Here they are: AL EAST Baltimore Orioles Tampa Bay Rays New York Yankees Click here to view the article

Here's your 3rd chance to beat Vegas and you can win a Harry’s Razor starter kit! They were led by Alex Rodriguez's surprising revival to 87 wins and a Wild Card spot , and their season ended just one game later. But even more surprising: the Yankees didn't sign a big free agent this offseason.Vegas’ Line: 85.5 wins What The Line Is Saying "On the one hand, this team has a lot of players that could fall off quickly and not a lot of other options. On the other hand, they still have two potential aces atop the rotation and our 81.5 guess last year underestimated them." They’ll Beat Vegas If… CC Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka both have seasons where they are their old healthy and dominant selves AND ARod and Mark Teixeira defy normal aging processes. If you beat Vegas, you can win a free Harry’s Razor starter set. Just leave a comment with your choice of the “Over” or” Under” and your reasoning. At the end of the season, for each team, we’ll randomly pick one of the winning predictions for a free Truman Razor set. They’ll Lose To Vegas If… The Miami-based "Elixir of Life" distributor that is keeping Arod and Teixeira productive is busted in a sting operation. Or Sabathia and Tanaka have not put their troubles behind them. I’ll Bet The…. UNDER …but I just don't trust myself with the Yankees. I just hate them so much, it's hard to be objective. But it seems like there is so much more room for bad things to happen to them then good things. Now it’s your turn. Give us your prediction in the comment section (you’ll need to register first) and you’re automatically entered. We’ll be giving out a free Harry’s Razor Truman Set to one of the winning correct predictions for each team, so we’ll be give away 15 sets of razors! You can also click over to Harry’s Razors and get $5 off on your first order using the promo code ‘gleeman’. Stop by tomorrow for another change. Or, prior to 4/5/16, you can also enter a prediction for any of the previous teams we’ve covered. Here they are: AL East Baltimore Orioles Tampa Bay Rays Click here to view the article

That's kind of where I am. But as I wrote these up, I realized I could say the same about a LOT of the AL this year.

Here's your second chance to show us you can beat Vegas and win a Harry’s Razor starter kit! The Rays find themselves stuck. Stuck between good and bad. Stuck between prospects and suspects. But mostly stuck in a stadium that is strangling any fan interest, revenue opportunities and competive hopes they might have. Their 80-82 record might as well be Flick after licking the flag pole: "THTUUUCK!"Vegas’ Line: 81.5 wins What The Line Is Saying "We like ya well enough, but let us know when you're serious about winning." They’ll Beat Vegas If… The core to be competitive is there. Evan Longoria anchors the lineup. Their rotation is outstanding, led by Chris Archer who had 252(!) strikeouts last year. They need their supplementary bats, particularly in their underachieving lineup, to take turns being productive. If you beat Vegas, you can win a free Harry’s Razor starter set. Just leave a comment with your choice of the “Over” or” Under” and your reasoning. At the end of the season, for each team, we’ll randomly pick one of the winning predictions for a free Truman Razor set. They’ll Lose To Vegas If… A few of their stars miss time or have a bad year and the rest of the lineup doesn't catch fire. Or they just follow the lead of their fans and ex-manager and ex-GM and any of their ex-players and give up. It's hard to believe they haven't already. I’ll Bet The…. UNDER And it breaks my heart. It looks like the Rays window has closed, and all that's left is to play out the string and decide when to start the next rebuild. I suspect the only reason they haven't done that already is they're still hoping this sustained run finally gets them the stadium they need. Now it’s your turn. Give us your prediction in the comment section (you’ll need to register first) and you’re automatically entered. We’ll be giving out a free Harry’s Razor Truman Set to one of the winning correct predictions for each team, so we’ll be give away 15 sets of razors! You can also click over to Harry’s Razors and get $5 off on your first order using the promo code ‘gleeman’. Stop by tomorrow for another change. Or, prior to 4/5/16, you can also enter a prediction for any of the previous teams we’ve covered. Here they are: AL East Baltimore Orioles Click here to view the article

Show us you can beat Vegas and you can win a Harry’s Razor starter kit! The Orioles entered the last two months of 2016 as a Wild Card favorite - and completely folded. The slide started with a four-game sweep at the hands of the Twins, led to a 11-18 August, and it took a hot (and meaningless) last week for the Orioles to finish with a .500 record. Their offseason consisted mostly of bringing back their players for another run.Vegas’ Line: 79.5 wins (last in the AL East) What The Line Is Saying "We didn't believe in you last year - and we were right. Why would we believe in you this year?" Coming off a 96-win season in 2014, Vegas set an 82.5 total for the Orioles last year - and that was still too high. They’ll Beat Vegas If… ....their strategic free agent signings do well. That starts with Yovani Gallardo, who they got for just $22M over two years after renegotiating when the Orioles found something they didn't like in Gallardo's physical. But the market's concerns about Gallardo are very real: his strikeout rate has consistently and significantly dropped each of the last three years. If you beat Vegas, you can win a free Harry’s Razor starter set. Just leave a comment with your choice of the “Over” or” Under” and your reasoning. At the end of the season, for each team, we’ll randomly pick one of the winning predictions for a free Truman Razor set. They’ll Lose To Vegas If… …they continue to get old. Or the Buck Showalter magic wears off. Showalter has shown to be a stellar manager, but his demanding nature has also lost a few clubhouses in his tenures. If things go south early, or if the rest of the AL East just proves to be too competitive, it'll be interesting to see what happens when the mood gets ugly. I’ll Bet The…. UNDER I think the Orioles under Showalter have been a consistently underappreciated and underrated team - but even I am pessimistic. It feels like their competitive window is closing, and they're running on borrowed time. Now it’s your turn. Give us your prediction in the comment section (you’ll need to register first) and you’re automatically entered. We’ll be giving out a free Harry’s Razor Truman Set to one of the winning correct predictions for each team, so we’ll be give away 15 sets of razors! You can also click over to Harry’s Razors and get $5 off on your first order using the promo code ‘gleeman’. This is our first of 15 stories, so stop by tomorrow for our next preview and to give us your pick. Click here to view the article

Aaron and John meet up at the new New Bohemia Lake St and discussed: - the Twins giving Byron Buxton every chance to win the center field job - the limited roster battles the Twins have in spring training - how you can win a pair of 20-game Twins season tickets from the MN Corn Growers - how Carlos Quentin picked the wrong year to be a Twin and - review Vegas' Over-Under lines for the AL East and - how you can play along and win a free Truman Set from Harrys.com. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click the Play button below. Click here to view the article

The Minnesota Twins version of Super Tuesday came to Hammond Stadium yesterday. The candidates were the glut of left-handed relievers in the Twins bullpen. The results were inconclusive. But while the final choice for the sole left-handed setup spot wasn’t going to be made yesterday, it’s apparent the Twins will need to pare down the nominees. That may be what Super Tuesday did.Every time the Twins make their way through the starting rotation this spring, the starters add an inning. And since the Twins have eight players still competing for a starting pitching spot, three days out of every five the starting pitchers are doubling up: pitching one right after another. So, for instance, on Monday, Phil Hughes pitched three innings followed by Trevor May who pitched 2.1 innings. That only left 3.2 innings to dedicate to relievers. By Saturday, if both Hughes and May are stretched four innings, it could mean one inning left for a reliever. And that will be true for Tyler Duffey and Ricky Nolasco on Sunday, too. Plus, Ervin Santana and JO Berrios are doubling up this Thursday and presumably next Tuesday, too, so the innings available for relievers are becoming scarce. That's especially true because the Twins have a LOT of left-handed relievers through which to sort. Not counting Glen Perkins, there are eleven left-handed relievers in camp fighting for a single spot. As is, some were having trouble getting into games this week. Yesterday provided a rare opportunity: the Twins had two games – a “split squad game” - and two rosters to fill. Given the innings crunch, some of these guys may not get a better – or indeed another - chance to show what they can do. Thus, Super Tuesday. The Twins trotted out five left-handed relievers consecutively for an inning apiece in their home 5-3 loss to the Cardinals. Only one, Ryan O’Rourke, didn’t give up a hit. Only two – O’Rourke and Michael Strong, didn’t give up a run. Only one, Logan Darnell struck out any of the batters he faced. We could go into more detail, but we confirmed what we already knew: we're not thrilled with any of these candidates. I especially wonder about Buddy Boshers and Aaron Thompson sticking around camp much longer. Neither has shown much so far this spring and their struggles continued in this game. That Starting Arms Race This inning scarcity raises a couple of other topics worth exploring. First, I won’t be surprised if JO Berrios is sent down fairly early in camp. It wouldn’t be a reflection on him. It would just mean the Twins need his innings to sort through their bullpen. Also, I would think that as soon as the Twins feel that the other six candidates for the rotation are healthy (and that appears to be the case), May will be moved back to the bullpen, maybe as early as early next week. The Road Game That Twins lost the other split squad game too, 9-3, to the Blue Jays up in Dunedin. The organization’s attitude towards split squad games is interesting. Terry Ryan always goes to the road game. Under Tom Kelly & Ron Gardenhire and now under Paul Molitor, so does the manager. The attitude is that if the players need to go, the GM and the coach should go. This is no small sacrifice, by the way. It’s a five-hour round trip drive to Dunedin where the Blue Jays play. With that kind of trip, even if you like to go to road games, the easy choice is to watch the home game. But pretty regularly, the more intriguing group of players is the one sent on the road and that was certainly the case yesterday. Tyler Duffey pitched on the road; Ricky Nolasco pitched at home. The regulars that played at home included Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe, Kurt Suzuki and Eduardo Escobar. On the road, they were Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Byung-Ho Park and John Ryan Murphy. That’s not unusual because generally, the manager lets the more veteran players stay home, while the younger players sit on the bus. As a result, it’s often the players fighting for playing time or players that have the New Car Smell™ that end up on the road trips. Watching Nolasco Ricky Nolasco made his second start of spring training and looked pretty good. More precisely, he looked very good in his first two innings, but struggled in his third inning, He threw strikes early in the count, throwing first pitch strikes to 7 of the 10 batters he faced. He mixed up all four of his pitches throughout the outing. He froze a lot of batters on called strikes, getting ten such calls and making hitters look like they were off balance. He struck out four batters, all on swinging strikes. His overall control was more of a concern. Of the 43 pitches he threw, 17 were out of the zone, which is 3-5 more than one would see on a good day. In particular, he seemed to get ahead in the count (often with those called strikes) and then try to hit the outside edge of the plate, but miss outside or low. “I made it a little hard on myself, trying to put guys away, maybe trying to do a little too much,” said Nolasco after the game. Finding A Way After struggling to get on base for most of spring training, Danny Santana bunted his way onto first base in the third inning. It was his second hit of the spring. “I played a couple days not too good, so I was thinking ‘Do I bunt today?’”, Santana said afterwards in the locker room. He made it look easy - it was towards the third baseman, who fielded it cleanly but was still late by a step. “I’m a bunting guy, you know?”, continued Santana. “I know how to bunt.” That versatility he showed at the plate has been more pronounced in the field. In this first week, Santana has appeared in six games, and has started the last three days. He has played second base, shortstop, third base, center field and right field. With no more options left, the Twins will need to choose to put him on the Opening Day roster or put him on waivers, where he will almost surely be claimed. Even if he struggles this spring, I don’t think the Twins will risk that. Look for him to continue to get opportunities and to make the team as a super-utility player this spring who can play everyplace but catcher and pitcher. He also brings speed to the bench. And apparently the ability to bunt when one needs it. He’s a bunting guy. Click here to view the article

The Minnesota Twins have emphasized chasing power arms with high speed gun numbers in recent year. However, different types of speed stood out in today’s 3-0 exhibition road win over the Orioles. Things started fast when Byron Buxton hit a leadoff double fueled by his amazing speed. It was Buxton’s second hit this spring and his first extra-base hit. He also put a charge into another pitch to the left field gap later, but the gusty wind, blowing in, made it nothing more than a long fly ball.The Twins keep demonstrating they hope Buxton’s speed also applies to his developmental timeline. In their six spring training games, Buxton has four of the starts in center field, and the other two have been split one apiece for Danny Santana and Max Kepler. This is clearly not a competition, or at least not yet. It’s Buxton’s job to lose, and the Twins hope that Buxton shows them enough to bring him north with the team. It’s not at all clear that he has so far. He struck out in four of his first five at-bats and is 2-10 this spring with no walks. Speedy was also the adjective best used to describe the pace of the game early. Before the game was an hour old, the Twins were already batting in the fifth inning. That’s when Oswlado Arcia used his speed to move himself around the bases on a stolen base and passed ball and scored the Twins first run. This is the second time in two days I’ve had to talk about Oswaldo Arcia’s speed, but I just checked : no sign of four horsemen anywhere to be seen. That game’s pace was driven by Phil Hughes who speedily dispatched nine Orioles hitters in ten plate appearances. He struck out nobody, but only gave up one hit, to Adam Jones. Trevor May followed him and struck out the side in the fourth inning, though he struggled with his command more in the fifth and beginning of the sixth. He still managed to retire seven and leave the game with only one hit and no runs. We saw more speed from an unlikely source: Miguel Sano. He scored from first base on a Trevor Plouffe ground ball double down the third base line. He also started in right field, but really didn’t get to showcase that surprising speed much; the only fly ball he had to catch was hard hit but hit almost right at him. While we’re beating this speed theme into the ground, I’ll add a couple more. Left-handed reliever Randy Rosario made very quick work of closing out the sixth inning, getting Adam Jones to fly out to center field and then made left-handed slugger Chris Davis look helpless for the third out. I think that’s his first action this spring. Relief pitcher Ryan Pressly showed quick reflexes when he fielded a drive right up the middle, and then threw to first base promptly to pick off a runner for an inning-ending double-play. Finally, minor league shortstop Engelb Vielma came in late and displayed his speed, effortlessly legging out a standup triple in the ninth inning. Really, all that was missing was one of those power arms, like reliever Nick Burdi or Alex Meyer. Never fear, with split squad games tomorrow, their turn should come around, uh, quickly. Some Slower Notes Left-handed reliever Fernando Abad pitched the seventh inning for the Twins. Abad is a minor league signing who struggled last year after having success previously and is one of the better candidates to break camp as the Twins left-handed relief specialist. It’s the first time I’ve seen him, and he throws hard enough, but what struck me was his softest pitch. He threw a couple of 74 mph offspeed pitches (I think a curve ball) that locked up two batters and got him ahead in the count to each batter. It’s Spring Training For Me, Too Finally, I should mention that I learned something new. In the eighth inning, one of the Twins backup catchers hit a run-scoring double. I didn’t realize until I looked him up that Juan Centeno is a new addition to the organization who is 26 years old and has had a dozen or so games in the majors each of the last three years. He’s not one of the three catchers on the 40-man roster, so it will be an uphill battle for him to make an appearance with the Twins this year, but it’s nice to see him making a good impression. Click here to view the article

Five days ago, in his first spring training at-bat, Byung-Ho Park, batting sixth, strode to the plate with the based loaded and two outs. He struck out. Today, Byung-Ho Park, batting sixth, strode to the plate with the bases loaded and two outs. He hit a grand slam. That’s called Progress.Progress is that which Twins officials have been wishing for their big international free agent since they signed him: not Success but Progress. They have reliably assured fans that adjustments would need to be made before Park successfully transitioned from Korean baseball to MLB, and those adjustments might not happen quickly; maybe not in spring training. Their scouting of his swing was not that it was Ready For The Show; it was that it was conducive for The Show. It has the raw material that an MLB player needs. Neither the strikeout five days ago nor the grand slam proves anything in that regard, of course. But it’s nice to see an upward trajectory. Indeed, that is the one thing upon which the Twins have been counting. Speaking Of Upward Trajectory The other play that stood out today in the Twins 5-4 road win over the Rays was defensive. In the eighth inning, Rays minor league outfield Johnny Field launched a long drive to the gap in right center field. It looked like it might be a home run, but the Twins right fielder ranged deep into the gap, caught the ball up against the wall, came down, spun around and threw back into the infield to eventually double off the runner at first base. It took me a moment to process this. Once I confirmed that I last had Oswaldo Arcia in right field – it took me another moment to process it. I eventually waited until he and the center fielder (Joe Benson) jogged in together to believe it was truly Arcia. And even that isn’t true. It wasn’t until people applauded Arcia that I convinced myself I hadn’t gotten he and Benson mixed up. (And even then I waited to see if someone else would tweet it first.) What my mind couldn’t grasp was the Arcia would have the range for that catch. Last week, Ryan talked a little about Arcia and what he had seen from him so far in camp. “He spent the entire winter down in our camp,” said Ryan. “He’s in good shape.” He certainly looked it today. Ultimately, Arcia’s shape and his glove aren’t going to determine his future. It’s going to be his bat, and that still hasn’t shown much this spring training – he struck out twice today, once against each handed pitcher. But as Ryan reminded us all “He’s got talent.” Mixing It Up Kyle Gibson threw two innings, and looked like he was willing to throw all of his variants in his first outing. Toward the end of his stint, when he fell behind 3-0, he went with fastballs to even the count but went back to an offspeed pitch (I think his change-up) to get a ground out. He finished the outing with a strikeout looking on another offspeed pitch. It’s Spring Training For Everyone Today’s reminder that It’s Spring Training For Everyone goes to, well, everyone involved with the first run the Twins gave up. It started with an error by Eduardo Escobar to get the lead runner on base. The runner advanced on a wild pitch that was mostly catcher John Ryan Murphy’s fault. The runner advanced to third base on a stolen base that was pitcher Glen Perkins fault; he simply didn’t check the runner at all. And finally the run came home on a sacrifice fly. Stuff I Don’t Get Michael Tonkin pitched the sixth inning today. His first two pitches were 95 mph fastballs - and both were hit hard but ended up being long fly balls. He struck out his final batter on seven pitches. He’ll likely make the team if for no other reason than he has no options left, but it’s hard to see how a reliever with a 95+ mph fastball (his first warm-up pitch was 97) hasn’t already made the team. But of his nine pitches today, six were that fastball and none of them got a swing and a miss. Lightning Lineup Notes Byung-Ho Park started at first base today, the first time he has been in the field.Carlos Quentin played in right field for the first time this spring. He had been at first base or DH. Arcia also played right field for the first time this spring. It was also the first time he has played but hasn’t started.Danny Santana got his first start of the spring in center field. Click here to view the article

If sabremetricians had a guild, I’d be a card carrying member, but I’m far from blind to our weaknesses, and hubris is among them. We like to think we have more insight on the future of players than we do, that our numbers give us insights others lack. And then along comes Eduardo Escobar. Escobar should not be this good. In case you have forgotten, he finished 2015 with the highest OPS on the for anyone with at least 350 AB. Higher than Joe Mauer. Higher than All-Star Brian Dozier. And he did this while playing shortstop.That makes him incredibly valuable. Shortstop is the position of smooth leather and limp bats. The average American League shortstop hit .264 with a 690 OPS. Escobar matched that batting average, but exceeded the OPS by 64 points. If he would have maintained that production for 54 more plate appearances, he would have had the second highest OPS among qualified AL shortstops, just 22 points short of up-and-coming Red Sox superstar Xander Boegarts. Not bad for a guy who started the season as the utility infielder. All of this is a complete surprise. It certainly is to me, who trashed the acquisition of Escobar when I wrote “10 Things I Hate About The Francisco Liriano Trade.” Escobar was reasons #19 though #21. Escobar was a light-hitting, free-swinging, decent-fielding utility player with a lot of versatility. It’s not uncommon for those first three adjectives to gradually improve with age and experience, but the trickiest is the “free-swinging,” It can also have the largest impact. It certainly seems to have with Escobar. Through July 31st last year, Escobar had struck out 53 times, walked just nine times and was posting an underwhelming .241 batting average with a .653 OPS per Baseball Reference. About that time, manager Paul Molitor started relying on him at shortstop. If you ask Escobar about his sudden improvement, he’ll note that. “You play every day, you change, you know?”, says Escobar. “I stayed at one position, too, so that’s why it’s different.” However, his statistics suggest a change in approach, too. Remember that 53/9 K/BB ratio before July 31st? It was 33/19 over the second half of the year. Remember that .653 OPS? It was .874 after August 1st. Was that two month stretch a fluke? On the one hand, a lot of that success was when Escobar was red hot in August (.952 OPS). He cooled a bit in September (.812 OPS). But he wasn’t just getting lucky hits; his BABIP actually dropped in 2015 compared to 2014 as did his batting average. The difference in OPS was the power and the patience. If you press Escobar a bit beyond talking about his increased playing time, he also talks about a change in his approach at the plate. “I worked hard to take more concentration to home plate, see more of my pitches, so I don’t swing at everything”, he continues. “After that, I saw better pitches.” The correlation of patience with increased productivity, along with the fact that Escobar seems to recognize the change, suggests he might be a fundamentally different hitter and that we may have witnessed a transition. That increased plate discipline isn’t as easy as it sounds. It might not even be a conscious adjustment; more of an expression of self-confidence. Twins general manager Terry Ryan has his own theory about that growth. “For me, it’s the old adage: it takes a guy a year or two for a guy to get comfortable before they change clubs. And usually it’s the case. It just happens.“ Whatever the cause, Escobar's free-swinging days might be over. If we see that same approach this year, I suggest he’ll exceed last year’s .754 OPS which already exceeds projections systems like ZIPS, which is projecting a .711 OPS. It's possible, maybe even probable that we're wrong about Escobar. One could argue that we already have been. Click here to view the article