John Bonnes

I'm with Seth. I was baffled by the reaction on Twitter and here; more so on Twitter. As I get older, I get more frustrated with our willingness to distort objective analysis for entertainment. It feels like that is the case here. A quick snarky Gardy joke is top of mind and easy to make, so resort to tweeting it and retweeting it and praising it. But it's ... um ... let's call it "self-pleasuring" - we do it because it feels good, not because it's productive. Ron Gardenhire is the winningest manager in Twins history, and if you think he's a bum, you might want to re-examine if any manager of a team you cared for has ever not been a bum. He finished in the top three in AL Manager of the Year approximately half a dozen times, which is essentially an award based on how a team overperforms expectations nationally. He built his success ON turning young players into contenders; nobody expected a team of Mientkiewicz, Koskie, Pierzynski, Guzman, Jones and Hunter to have anywhere near the run they had. And he oversaw it for an enormous stretch - far longer than, say, Joe Maddon made the Rays a winning team. Also, just so we're clear - he essentially resigned. The story from all accounts, is that Ryan told Gardenhire they could not offer him an extension for 2016 and Gardy said that he thought maybe the organization should make a change, and so Ryan agreed. The "fired" part is true only because Ryan continued to pay him through 2015, which he would not have needed to do if Gardy "resigned," but this was a parting of the ways. So why are we puzzled - and even more crazy, concerned - that Gardy is back in the organization? This reaction is, IMHO, insane. Of course you want a lifetime baseball guy, who spent close to 30 years with the team and is the winningest manager in Twins history, back with the team. You would be crazy not to.

Aaron and John talk about the Twins breaking through with their first wins of the season, Oswaldo Arcia reminding everyone he can hit, Glen Perkins' latest injury, Joe Mauer's great start, Byung Ho Park's huge power, being a Twins groundkeeper for a day, signing David Murphy to a minors deal, hot-hitting Eduardo Nunez, Byron Buxton vs. Eddie Rosario, and Bonnes refusing not to dance like a maniac.You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click the Play button below. Click here to view the article

Aaron and John recap their experience at the Twins' home opener, apply sabermetrics to lifetime beer consumption, and wonder what the team can do to fix itself in a special midweek episode sponsored by Harry's.com.You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click the Play button below. Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk at the Iron Door Pub about the Twins' brutal 0-6 start, over-managing Miguel Sano, "messing" up tater tots, Joe Mauer quietly having a big week, assessing Byung Ho Park, a special Home Opener GATG podcast, Danny Santana getting hurt, Paul Molitor tinkering constantly, Ricky Nolasco coming up big, buying a mattress from Casper, Glen Perkins struggling again, and Max Kepler filling in. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click the Play button below. Click here to view the article

BTW, sorry to go all CAP HEAVY. I'll try again: defense in rf doesn't matter. It's where you out the worst, most unathletic person in every baseballish game at every level for all teams in history, except for DH. And Sano is not the least athletic guy on the Twins. He played third base, which us higher on the defensive spectrum. It's all going to be fine.

La Bombo, I love you're writing style. I can't reply to all you posts, and I wish I could, but a much more important point is that you should write. I want you to have a blog here. I think it's going to be great. I'll possibly disagree with it vehemently, like I do this Sano thing, but u think it will be great. I think most of the Sano in RF angst is rhetorical, which is super fun and super popular, but ultimately at odds with an honest, objective, analytical evaluation. If I had to explain it rhetorically, I'd go with this: Sano is superhuman. That's why we have trouble understanding how a 270(+?) is gonna be able to handle this. But if you watch, he is handling it. So relax. As for the questions earlier about Hunters defense, I'll give more detail & then give the obvious conclusion. Detail: from each AL team I pulled the RFer w the most innings. Then I sorted them by their UZR. (Hunter had a positive UZR.) Obvious conclusion - actually I'll get be two of them: 1) Hunter was not as bad in RF as you expected but you made up your mind early and didn't notice because DEFENSE IN RF DOESNT MATTER. 2) Hunter was still bad in RF, but better than average because most RFers aren't very good defensively, because DEFENSE IN RF DOESNT MATTER.

I'm amazed at our ability to make up our minds about something before we've seen it. From the beginning, the mind set seems to have been that Sano is going to be a disastrous outfielder and that's based on ... what? His weight? Is that it? It seemed like Sano fielded just about as many hits to right field in these first three games than I bet he saw all of spring training. And for the most part, he looked like a fine (if below average) right fielder. He made several routine plays, at least one good play up against the wall and had the mistake that cost the team a run. He looks inexperienced but already the equivalent of Delmon Young, Chris Parmelee, Josh Willingham and Oswaldo Arcia (non-2016 year edition). I'll leave with this. Here are the seven worst fielding starting right fielders in the AL last year: Josh Reddick Shin-Soo Choo Gerardo Perra Carlos Beltran Avisail Garcia Nelson Cruz Jose Bautista Here were the seven best: Kole Calhoun J.D. Martinez Rusney Castillo Alex Rios George Springer Torii Hunter Steven Souza You tell me which group you would rather have. Good hitters with questionable defense play right field all the time. Indeed, looking at the whole list, nearly every "below average" defender in right field is a guy you would want to have, and the best fielders are simply there because there isn't a good hitter on the roster to stick there.

Ok, I've used the WAR values to recreate the points. Here are the details: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G3FVpKs0rA7Wlt8R6K8Zt-zemowor1i7qiHIxGRIlHY/edit?usp=sharing And here are the sorted final WAR values for the top 30 prospects in each system by team: TOTAL LAD 41.5 MIL 35 TEX 32.6 ATL 31.9 PHI 31 COL 29.2 CHN 28.5 HOU 28.2 WAS 28.2 PIT 26.7 BOS 25.2 CIN 23 TB 22.7 MIN 20.7 CLE 20.5 NYM 19.7 NYY 19.5 SD 18 OAK 16.5 STL 16.2 SFG 13 TOR 13 ARI 11 CHA 11 KC 11 SEA 10 BLT 7 DET 5.5 LAA 4.5 MIA 4.5 I'll also just note that if Buxton is a 70 (I don't know if that was true) and he still would have been on the list, the Twins would have been at 31.7, 5th overall.

Great discussion here. I think it's awesome that Jesse compiled this stuff for us to chew on. I also agree with the main critique of it - that the point system implies that a "60" is only 20% better than a "50". The scouting point system isn't made to determine value. It was made to give scouts an easy way to differentiate between similar players. To that end, I really like the WAR list that Markos provided. Yes, it has career WAR, but really what Jesse is working through here is "What is the value of these players to the organization?" That boils down to "What is the value of these players in the first six years of their MLB career to the organization?" I bet that corresponds very closely with career WAR, so I'm good with using it. Anyone want to do the same excercise using WAR point system?

If you don't follow @TwinsDaily on Twitter, you might have missed our intrepid reporting on Target Field's new food options. To remedy that, you'll want to read below, as we'll recap the entire event. But then you're going to want to sign up for Twitter and follow @TwinsDaily, because it's baseball season, and you're going to love it. OK, let's talk food:The entryway of the new Catch Tapas Bar in center field. Click here to view the article

The Twins lost their season opener to the Orioles, 3-2 on a walk-off single in the bottom of the ninth yesterday by Matt Wieters, who up to that point had been 0-4 and left five stranded on base. The game featured a couple of very promising performances, a few discouraging ones, a play that baseball geeks love to debate and weather shenanigans.The Good Eduardo Escobar began the season where he left off last season, with two doubles, the second of which drove in a run and set the table for the Twins tying run. Escobar was both Aaron Gleeman’s and my pick in yesterday’s Gleeman and the Geek podcast to be the Twin who most surprises in a positive way this year. Escobar, you might recall, posted a .952(!) OPS in August and an 816 OPS in September last year, while showing considerably more plate discipline. Eduardo Escobar is for real. The other impressive outing belonged to Trevor May, who pitched two high-leverage innings out of the bullpen, striking out four of the eight batters he faced. May ended last season exactly the opposite of Escobar: struggling and hurt. Seeing him effective and strong enough to throw 31 pitches (with 22 strikes) is a good omen for the bullpen. The Bad And the bullpen could use some good news, because it had its share of bad news, some expected, some not so much. The expected bad news was that Casey Fien gave up two runs before he got an out, though he did stick around for 2/3 inning after. The Twins offered Fien arbitration this year because, in theory, he offers the upside they saw the in first four months of 2014, when he posted a 2.34 ERA and was a reliable eighth inning setup man. But he battled injuries at the end of 2014, battled them again in 2015 and has posted a 4.57 ERA since August 1st of 2014. A team can gamble on a reliever like that during the offseason, hoping that rest will heal what ails the previously reliable arm. But at some point, it doesn’t matter whether a reliever is ineffective because he’s injured or just because he is not that good. The point should be coming within the next month or so for Fien. He’ll need to find that magic again, because the Twins should have other options. The unexpected bad surprise was Kevin Jepsen giving up a walk and two singles to lose the game after getting two quick outs. I don’t know that we need to sound any alarms. It started because he fell behind 3-1 and ball four, which put the (eventually game-winning) runner on base, looked like a strike. The two singles were “diamond cutters,” well hit singles up the middle, but also the sort of hit that relievers just occasionally give up. Finally, it’s worth noting that the Twins lead-off candidates, Brian Dozier and Byron Buxton, were 0-7 combined. Dozier got a couple of high fastballs that were to his liking, but popped them up instead of driving them into the left field seats. Buxton struck out all three times he came to the plate. Each was followed with lots of reassuring tweets that “Buxton WILL hit.” He will, but that isn’t the question. The question is whether or not he’ll require a trip to Rochester before he makes the needed adjustment. The Rest 1. The Twins tying run scored on a play that baseball geeks like to debate. With runners on 2nd and 3rd base and one out, Kurt Suzuki hit a deep fly ball to left field that was foul but in play. The Orioles left fielder, Joey Rickard, caught it in foul ground, which allowed Byung-Ho Park to tag up and score from third base. Had Rickard just let the ball drop, it would have been a 1-2 count on Suzuki but the one-run lead would have been maintained. I suspect the usual logic is that unless it is the game-winning run, that’s exactly how it should be played. But I checked out FanGraph’s Win Probability Play Log to see how that catch affected the game. The answer? It didn’t. With runners one 2nd and 3rd and one out, nursing a one run lead in the top of the seventh, the home team wins the game 52.4% of the time. And with a tie game, two outs and a runner on second, they win…. 52.6% of the time. It’s essentially a wash either way Rickard played it. 2. The other big story of the game was the rain delay, which just ended up weird. The Orioles had their Opening Day festivities, but then delayed the start of the game by one hour and 40 minutes, most of which was dry. Then they started the game which went two innings before it started to rain and the umpires delayed the game. That lasted one hour and 10 minutes, and then the game started again and was played straight through without the starting pitchers. The issue of a rain delay is a little complicated because the person who has the authority to delay the game changes when the first pitch is thrown. Before the first pitch, the home team gets to decide if the game should be delayed. After the first pitch, it’s solely in the umpires’ hands. So it isn’t too surprising that the Orioles, who likely were trying to make sure their fans got to see the game they paid for, didn’t turn it over to the umpires early. What’s weird is that they started it in between storm fronts, where they lost control anyway. Click here to view the article

Show us you can beat Vegas and you can win a Harry’s Razor starter kit! A hot streak in May had the team in first place in June and dreaming of a postseason appearance at the All-Star Break. They fell short of that goal with 83 wins, but exceeded expectations while injecting their roster with long-awaited prospects. They’ll try to recreate that success replacing Torii Hunter with Byung-Ho Park, a South Korean slugger acquired this offseason.Vegas’ Line: 78.5 wins What The Line Is Saying “That was cute last year, but you were luckier than you think.” They’ll Beat Vegas If… Their prospects continue to take steps forward. That’s not only important for the big names breaking with the club: Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton. It’s also true for the guys at AAA who will likely provide much needed reinforcements mid-season: JO Berrios, Tyler Duffey, Max Kepler and Nick Burdi. If you beat Vegas, you can win a free Harry’s Razor starter set. Just leave a comment with your choice of the “Over” or” Under” and your reasoning. At the end of the season, for each team, we’ll randomly pick one of the winning predictions for a free Truman Razor set. They’ll Lose To Vegas If… Every pitcher in this rotation is a coin flip; if enough come up tails, the year could go the wrong way in a hurry. Is Phil Huges v.2015 or v.2014? Is Ervin Santana the guy we saw in August (7.11 ERA) or the guy we saw in September (1.88 ERA)? Can Kyle Gibson control his inconsistent outings, or will he succumb to them? And then we get to Tommy Milone and Ricky Nolasco….. oy. I’ll Bet The…. OVER It’s certainly possible this team has a swoon, but they should be loaded up for a solid 5-6 years of competitive baseball, and it should start this year. The AL Central often turns into a war of attrition and when ammo starts running low, I like the Twins midseason reinforcements to be the difference. Now it’s your turn. Give us your prediction in the comment section (you’ll need to register first) and you’re automatically entered. We’ll be giving out a free Harry’s Razor Truman Set to one of the winning correct predictions for each team, so we’ll be give away 15 sets of razors! You can also click over to Harry’s Razors and get $5 off on your first order using the promo code ‘gleeman’. Click here to view the article

Aaron and John say goodbye to the too-long offseason, get back on KFAN, and preview the Twins season by asking 10 key questions, thanks to the Minnesota Corn Growers. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click the Play button below. Click here to view the article

Jeremy, your note on Palka prompted me to look up when else we've talked about him on TD. Do you remember you talked him up as a possible draft choice by the Twins in 2013? http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins-minor-leagues/draft-board-v30-420-r1383 And sure enough, here he is....

I think we cover what we think is important. And we didn't think Kepler's spring was important. He wasn't going to make the team unless someone was hurt. And his spring training statistics were essentially meaningless, as are most spring training stats.

Article below is by Matt Johnson A week before the start of their 1987 championship season, the Twins released fan-favorite, Mickey Hatcher, and traded for the much more dynamic, Dan Gladden. In exchange for the Dazzle Man and a player to be named later, the Twins sent two minor league relievers and a player to be named to the San Francisco Giants. The player to be named that Minnesota would send to San Francisco wound up being Bemidji-native, former Golden Gopher pitcher and Twins ‘86 draft pick, Bryan Hickerson.One of the appeals of Gladden was his game-changing speed. One newspaper headline the morning after the deal read “Popularity Sacrificed for Steals,” a motivation confirmed by Twins executive vice president, Andy MacPhail, who said that “the reason we got him is he gives us speed. He can steal bases, he’s a good turf player.” Hatcher, who had been with the Twins since 1981 and had peaked in ‘84, was a pretty one dimensional player. Though he possessed a career .281 average, he offered very little of the speed and versatility that the Twins sought with the addition of Gladden. “He just didn’t fit in,” manager Tom Kelly said of Hatcher. “There’s no place for him to play on this team. We have better athletes. We didn’t need him as a designated hitter or a pinch hitter, either.” It was a bold decision for the Twins to pull the trigger on the Gladden-for-Hatcher switch. Hatcher was owed $650,000 for the ‘87 season, and a $100,000 buyout for ‘88. It was the most expensive contract that the Twins would eat to that point in team history. The decision would, obviously, pay dividends. Though Gladden wasn’t as good in ‘87 as he had been in ‘86 — or would be in ‘88, for that matter — he was a key component in the Twins winning their first World Series in franchise history. And the trademark grit and hustle he displayed on a broken bat Astroturf double in the bottom of the 10th of Game 7 put the Twins solidly in position to win the 1991 World Series. “Tonight,” Jack Buck said of that Game 7, “it’s so apparent that this is one of the most remarkable baseball games ever played.” After being released by Minnesota Mickey Hatcher returned to the Los Angeles Dodgers where he had played the first two seasons of his career. After playing sparingly in the 1988 regular season, he replaced the injured Kirk Gibson in the World Series, batting .368 with 2 HRs and 5 RBI as the Dodgers upset the heavily favored Oakland A’s in five games. Hatcher retired after the 1990 season. He began coaching in 1993 with the Rangers, and served as Angels hitting coach from 2000 to 2012 under Dodger teammate, Mike Scioscia. The Angels won the World Series in 2002. Bryan Hickerson, the final piece in the Gladden trade, graduated from Bemidji High School in 1982. He went on to the University of Minnesota, where he won the Gophers’ “Dave Winfield Pitcher of the Year” award in ‘85 and ‘86. The Twins selected Hickerson in the 7th round of the June ‘86 amateur draft. He made his major league debut for the San Francisco Giants on July 25th, 1991, entering the game in the top of the 9th with the Giants leading the Mets 8-1. Hickerson struck out the first two big league batters he faced, Kevin McReynolds and Howard Johnson, and induced a groundout from pinch-hitter, Vince Coleman. He pitched primarily in relief, but did start 29 games for the Giants between ‘93 and ‘94. After being released by the Giants, Hickerson pitched for the Cubs and Rockies in 1995 before retiring with a career 21-21 record and 4.72 ERA in 209 Major League games. For stories about the Major Leaguers who grew up in Minnesota, like Major Minnesotans on Facebook and follow @MajorMinnesota on Twitter. For the history of Minnesota Twins baseball, told one day at a time, follow @TwinsAlmanac on Twitter. Click here to view the article

Show us you can beat Vegas and you can win a Harry’s Razor starter kit! The Royals started last season 12-4 and really never looked back. They led the division from June 8th until the end, when they finished with 95 wins and a World Series Championship. In the offseason, they replaced trade deadline acquisition Johnny Cueto with starting pitcher Ian Kennedy, but didn’t lose much of anyone else.Vegas’ Line: 85.5 wins What The Line Is Saying “You weren’t as good as you looked last year.” They’ll Beat Vegas If… … they really are as good as they looked last year. Those 95 wins last year were not a fluke. They outscored their opponents by 84 runs, which should be good for about 91 wins in a season. The core of their lineup – Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Mike Mostakas, Salvador Peres - is still the right side of thirty years old. The bullpen is still lights out. So long as the rotation doesn’t self-destruct, that number looks safe. If you beat Vegas, you can win a free Harry’s Razor starter set. Just leave a comment with your choice of the “Over” or” Under” and your reasoning. At the end of the season, for each team, we’ll randomly pick one of the winning predictions for a free Truman Razor set. They’ll Lose To Vegas If… That rotation self-destructs. Losing Cueto isn’t the shock one would think it is – he recorded a 4.76 ERA in a Royals uniform. But even with going to the bullpen early, they’re going to need to get their innings from someplace. Edinson Volquez and Yordano Ventura must provide consistent outings and they’ll need to get contributions from Kennedy, Chris Young & Kris Medlen. You’re forgiven if you think “That doesn’t look like a playoff-bound rotation to me.” I’ll Bet The…. OVER There are certainly no guarantees in the AL Central, and that starting rotation gives me pause. But the core of this team is as likely to progress as regress. Between their bullpen and defense, they’ll find a way to stitch together the rotation and roll to another AL Central championship. Now it’s your turn. Give us your prediction in the comment section (you’ll need to register first) and you’re automatically entered. We’ll be giving out a free Harry’s Razor Truman Set to one of the winning correct predictions for each team, so we’ll be give away 15 sets of razors! You can also click over to Harry’s Razors and get $5 off on your first order using the promo code ‘gleeman’. Click here to view the article