John Bonnes

Aaron and John talk about the endless game of musical pitchers, revisit their preseason over/under predictions, answer Twitter questions from listeners, try to decide who comes off worse owning the same shirt, wonder if Nick Blackburn is worth having in the 2013 plans, review Samuel Deduno's first start, and try to keep Aaron from coughing up a lung. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

He looked OK. It looked like the Twins pretty much gave up on his fastball. His curveball started as his go to pitch and ended up being his primary pitch.

Before that Filder at bat, Robertson had looked awfully good, especially against LHs. I still feel awfully good about him in there.

Lord, but I love the idea of getting Hamilton.

In spring training, Deduno looked like he had major league stuff but couldn't harness it. With 22 BB in 42 IP in AAA, it doesn't look like he's past that. Cross our fingers, I guess.

To me, this game was lost in the 8th. And that's mostly on Gardy. Yeah, there wer mistakes made at home plate, but they were good aggressive mistakes. Runners were left on base, but I'm not going to hammer Plouffe too much for leaving the bases loaded. The Twins were also shut out by Downs for multiple innings. If Perk was unavailable, they I understand why Burnett started the 8th. But why wasn't Robertson warmed up? You could see Gardy swearing when Burnett was facing (and walking) the lefty. Was he swearing at a miscommunication or himself? I gotta say, I feel like the Twins have a lot of promising arms in their bullpen, but their availability is awfully limited. Perk pitched the 2nd and the 3rd, but not the 4th. There is stuff going on there that we don't know about.

Is that true? It is not obvious - I would think the opposite. Most hitters are right-handed, and most hitters pull the ball, so I would think there would be a lot more balls to left field than to right field. That (along with the aforementioned bigger space and shorter throws to 3rd) would be the reason I think it would make a lot more sense for him to play LF over RF. But I'll be interested to find out if I'm wrong.

I'm about 75% sure he would take that offer and run. I haven't crunched the numbers for next year's payroll, but I gotta think that handing $12.5M to Liriano leaves precious little for the other 3/5 of the rotation.

My gawd, what a love fest we have going here. I thought I remembered multiple commenters this spring saying Revere would never make it as an outfielder because of his arm. Am I mis-remebering? Are they just ducking for cover? C'mon, someone out there has to take the other side here. Or has this truth just become that self-evident? Or have some, like nokomosid, changed their minds?

I think we all want this community to be as inclusive as possible to Twins fans. Could we all try to cool down a second before we escalate a thread into a personal attack? If we can't police ourselves, the administrators will need to.

One of the things Aaron and I talked about on the podcast last winter was how Twins fans were going to be treated to an experiment of sorts in the outfield this season. Ben Revere has outstanding range but a pretty awful arm - the two extremes. The Twins kicked the experiment up a notch by putting him in right field, where range counts for less and the arm for more. So I've been watching - how many times to I lament Revere's arm vs praise Revere's range? So far, it's absolutely no contest. I'll take the range every time. There have been times that I've grimaced over the occasional extra base, but they don't compare in quantity or in impact to how many times I think Revere's range has saved extra-base hits. But I kind of expected to see that, so I may be biased. I'd like to hear other's opinions, especially because there have been some very vocal critics of Revere's arm on these boards in the past. Am I off base?

One additional point i wish I would have added. This range also makes it difficult to know if Twins could/should offer Liriano a $12.5 one-year offer to get a draft pick if he signs elsewhere. Liriano might take it, or he might not. If he does take it, it would mean paying a premium for a pitcher when the market is likely to be flooded, which would almost certainly be a mistake.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?764-What-Would-A-Francisco-Liriano-Contract-Extension-Look-Like

If the Twins want to sign Francisco Liriano to an extension, it will need to be in the parameters of what Liriano will make on the free agent market this winter. But its hard to know even roughly how much he’ll command. Partly that’s because of his mercurial performance. But that problem is compounded by a free agent class that is unprecedented in pitching depth. It starts with two 28-year-olds, right-hander Zach Greinke and left-hander Cole Hamels that are both better than anyone in last year’s class. They both could reach nine figure deals with yearly salaries that approach $20M per year. But the really remarkable variable about the free agent class is the next level. There is a glut of “potential” star pitchers and Liriano falls into that class. Anibal Sanchez – The Marlins right-hander is just 28, and has thrown 195+ innings with a mid 3s ERA the last two years. He looks similarly strong this year. Shaun Marcum – The Brewers 30-year-old right-hander has a 3.56 ERA over the last three years and has averaged about 200 innings the last two of years. But lately he’s shelved with a sore elbow. Jake Peavy - The 2007 Cy Young winner has been injured a lot the past several years, but has finally regained his form with the White Sox with a 2.96 ERA (and 101 K). Colby Lewis – the Rangers right-hander who has struck out 455 batters and in 500 innings over the last 2.5 years – but who is now out with “forearm tightness”. Dan Haren – After posting an ERA of 3.08 over the last two years with the Angels, the 31-year-old right-hander struggled this year. He recently admitted he’s had lower back pain all season and may find the DL. His performance over the last couple of months may determine if the Angels pick up his $15M option. Ervin Santana – Like Liriano, Santana has had good years and bad years. The last two, where he threw 451.2 innings with a 3.65 ERA were very good years. This year, where he has a 5.12 ERA is not so much. He’s not even 30 yet. Liriano, who currently has 5.40 ERA and 76K in 76.2 IP slots in somewhere among these pitchers. He’s probably been the least consisten, but he’s also one of the youngest. He has never posted the inning totals that these guys have. But he’s also the only left-hander in this group. Finally, it’s also worth noting that I haven’t included a slew of other pitchers, some of whom might even be more enticing to teams looking for “inning eaters”: Kyle Lohse, Joe Saunders, Randy Wolf, Carl Pavano, Kevin Correia, Derek Lowe, Carlos Zambrano, Fausto Carmona and Daisuke Matsuzaka. So how much could Liriano expect, provided he continues to be effective? The guys I bullet pointed above could all expect multiyear offers for $10M+ per year any other year. Injuries and late season performances could change that. So could the depth of the market. Liriano would likely be on the low end of that group, but his age could be a factor in allowing a longer-term deal. Three years and $27M “feels” about right. But there are a ton of unknowns. If some teams really want a left-hander, he could go higher. If the market dries up after the first half dozen guys sign, he could go lower or for fewer years. Plus, there is his performance in July through September. If he wants to cash in now and avoid all that, one would think the price of an extension might be a little lower. But there is another lesson here too. The Twins, should they choose to spend some money, have a historically deep free agent class to rebuild their rotation. While the focus is likely to be Greinke or Hamels, there is a lot of value in that next tier – someone is going to fall out of that group and get a lower contract than we anticipate. And there are a lot of other average pitchers (such as Pavano) who might find themselves standing without a chair when the music stops. If the Twins choose to try and extend Liriano, they place their bet early. It might make more sense to wait until the market sorts itself out and be aggressive later.

If the Twins want to sign Francisco Liriano to an extension, it will need to be in the parameters of what Liriano will make on the free agent market this winter. But its hard to know even roughly how much he’ll command. Partly that’s because of his mercurial performance. But that problem is compounded by a free agent class that is unprecedented in pitching depth. It starts with two 28-year-olds, right-hander Zach Greinke and left-hander Cole Hamels that are both better than anyone in last year’s class. They both could reach nine figure deals with yearly salaries that approach $20M per year. But the really remarkable variable about the free agent class is the next level. There is a glut of “potential” star pitchers and Liriano falls into that class. Anibal Sanchez – The Marlins right-hander is just 28, and has thrown 195+ innings with a mid 3s ERA the last two years. He looks similarly strong this year. Shaun Marcum – The Brewers 30-year-old right-hander has a 3.56 ERA over the last three years and has averaged about 200 innings the last two of years. But lately he’s shelved with a sore elbow. Jake Peavy - The 2007 Cy Young winner has been injured a lot the past several years, but has finally regained his form with the White Sox with a 2.96 ERA (and 101 K). Colby Lewis – the Rangers right-hander who has struck out 455 batters and in 500 innings over the last 2.5 years – but who is now out with “forearm tightness”. Dan Haren – After posting an ERA of 3.08 over the last two years with the Angels, the 31-year-old right-hander struggled this year. He recently admitted he’s had lower back pain all season and may find the DL. His performance over the last couple of months may determine if the Angels pick up his $15M option. Ervin Santana – Like Liriano, Santana has had good years and bad years. The last two, where he threw 451.2 innings with a 3.65 ERA were very good years. This year, where he has a 5.12 ERA is not so much. He’s not even 30 yet. Liriano, who currently has 5.40 ERA and 76K in 76.2 IP slots in somewhere among these pitchers. He’s probably been the least consisten, but he’s also one of the youngest. He has never posted the inning totals that these guys have. But he’s also the only left-hander in this group. Finally, it’s also worth noting that I haven’t included a slew of other pitchers, some of whom might even be more enticing to teams looking for “inning eaters”: Kyle Lohse, Joe Saunders, Randy Wolf, Carl Pavano, Kevin Correia, Derek Lowe, Carlos Zambrano, Fausto Carmona and Daisuke Matsuzaka. So how much could Liriano expect, provided he continues to be effective? The guys I bullet pointed above could all expect multiyear offers for $10M+ per year any other year. Injuries and late season performances could change that. So could the depth of the market. Liriano would likely be on the low end of that group, but his age could be a factor in allowing a longer-term deal. Three years and $27M “feels” about right. But there are a ton of unknowns. If some teams really want a left-hander, he could go higher. If the market dries up after the first half dozen guys sign, he could go lower or for fewer years. Plus, there is his performance in July through September. If he wants to cash in now and avoid all that, one would think the price of an extension might be a little lower. But there is another lesson here too. The Twins, should they choose to spend some money, have a historically deep free agent class to rebuild their rotation. While the focus is likely to be Greinke or Hamels, there is a lot of value in that next tier – someone is going to fall out of that group and get a lower contract than we anticipate. And there are a lot of other average pitchers (such as Pavano) who might find themselves standing without a chair when the music stops. If the Twins choose to try and extend Liriano, they place their bet early. It might make more sense to wait until the market sorts itself out and be aggressive later.

I'll throw another team out there - the Phillies. It looks like they're resigned to losing Victorino. Why not get his replacement locked up and move him at the deadline?

Yes, he does. So who is pitching Sunday?

I wonder about the likelihood of Hamels or Greinke re-signing with their existing teams. It sure seems like it could happen. That changes the market quite a bit.

In his show today, after talking with Rick Anderson, Paul Allen hinted about two things going on with the Twins pitching staff. The first was that Hendriks had made his last start with the major league team for a bit, and that played out today when he was demoted and De Vries was called up. But the second was that Pavano is still not throwing yet and that the Twins are very disappointed by that. This is apparently taking longer to recover from than they had hoped. To review... 6/4 - Pavano was put on DL 6/15 - we heard the shoulder was getting stronger 6/24 - Joe C reported that Pavano would begin a throwing program "this week" 6/27 - Joe C reports he's playing long toss but hasn't thrown from a mound 7/3 - crickets At this point, I gotta think there is no way he has enough starts to generate any trade value. Seeing as it's unlikely he wants to be traded, that's probably just fine with him.

On his KFAN show this morning, PA hinted this was in the works, immediately after his talk with Rick Anderson. If this is what it seems on its surface, then I'm a little worked up about it. I saw gradual improvement from Hendriks, which is what made his fifth inning last night so disappointing - it looked like he turned the corner up until then. He's also been the victim a few times of staying in an inning too long and defense that wasn't quite good enough. Plus, Hendriks is 5 times the prospect DeVries is and a much better bet to be an asset this year. And what exactly does he have left to prove in AAA? The only think I can figure is that something happened behind the scenes to make the organization think that either Hendriks wasn't ready or needed a kick to the butt or to regain some confidence. Maybe something after he was pulled just short of getting his first win. I have no insided information that is the case, but I don't understand this move otherwise.

I wonder just how reasonable it would be for the Twins go get one of those top 3 guys. I would think that the Braves would need to be outmaneuvered for some of these other guys and need to feel like they had to respond to another contender. Boy, I'd be really happy with any of them.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?753-Trade-Target-Team-Profile-Atlanta-Braves

The Big Picture In the hyper-competitive NL East, the Braves are 4.5 games back of the division leading Nationals. But they’re also just one game back of the second wild-card spot, which happens to be shared by division rival New York Mets. Atlanta is reportedly searching for a top starting pitcher. That’s unusual ground for them – just last year they ranked 4th in MLB in ERA – but some injuries and regression by youngsters have them looking for rotation help. Why They Will Trade With The Twins The Braves are somewhat like the Twins right now, with two solid starters – Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson – followed by a whole lot of finger-crossing. They’ve been linked to just about every possibly available starting pitcher on the market already. That includes Francisco Liriano, since Braves scout Jim Fregosi (which are four words that should get ’93 Phils fans a little worked up) was at Sunday’s game, though he claimed the Braves weren’t interested in Liriano. But the best reason they match up with the Twins isn’t because of what they need as much as what they can offer – young pitching. One of the guys struggling in their rotation right now is 24-year-old left-hander Mike Minor, who is sporting a 6.20 ERA. But last year he struck out 99 batters in 100.2 inning in AAA, and almost matched that 1:1 ratio in 15 games in the majors. There are at least two other major-league-ready young pitchers that could be available for whoever can provide a high-end starter. Why They Won’t Trade With The Twins Pay a lot of attention to this next paragraph. Or don't, since I suspect I’m going to be repeating it in a lot of these profiles. It looks like there could be an awful lot of awful good starting pitchers available at the trade deadline this year. Yes, there could be a lot more “buyers” than “sellers,” but there are fewer buyers with the will or need to make a big trade for a starting pitcher. The Brewers are rumored to be fielding calls for both Zach Greinke and (if he gets healthy) Shawn Marcum. The Phillies have started calling teams about Cole Hamels. The Cubs will certainly listen to offers for Matt Garza. Liriano probably slots behind all of those guys and maybe among some other names like Seattle’s Jason Vargas. However, one thing that Liriano does have going for him to facilitate a trade to the Braves: he’s left-handed. Atlanta hasn’t indicated they have a preference, but the Nationals team they’re chasing is hitting just .233 vs southpaws this year, 3rd worst in the majors. Conclusion There are a lot of other teams that would like to add Liriano to their rotation, and there are a lot of other pitchers that could help the Braves. But the Twins and Braves make a good fit both in terms of what is given and what is received. Don’t be surprised if rumors surrounding these two teams get louder as the deadline approaches. Possible Trade Targets Mike Minor – LHP He’s just 24. He’s left-handed. He has very little service time. He was the seventh overall pick in the 2009 draft. And he has struck out 192 in 209 IP in the majors. But he’s sporting a 6.20 ERA this year (5.34 career) and is giving up WAY too many home runs. Sounds like an awfully good fit for Target Field. It’s a little hard to believe the Twins could get him straight up for Liriano, but perhaps they could include their own prospect to balance out the deal? Randall Delgado – RHP Here’s another one of the Braves promising pitching prospects that is struggling in the majors this year. Delgado’s problem this year has been control and that’s never been a particularly strong suit of his. But he’s just 21 years old and was rushed to the majors with only four starts in AAA. He also has 569 Ks in his 538 innings in the minors and a fastball that averaged 92.4 mph last year. Julio Teheran – RHP He’s one of the top pitching prospects in the minors with mid-90s stuff – and yet the Braves are looking for outside help? Yep. He’s just 21 years old. His strikeout rate in AAA doesn’t jump off the page and his brief callup last year (5.03 ERA w 10K and 8BB in 19.2 IP) was underwhelming. But again – he’s one of the top pitching prospects in the minors. And he’s in AAA. If the Braves don’t want to suffer through his growing pains, I know a team that will be happy to. A few more… Sean Gilmartin - LHP Stop me if this sounds like someone the Twins would like. Last year’s first round pick by the Braves projects as a middle of the rotation starter with outstanding control. The 6’2” southpaw is currently in AA. Zeke Spruill – RHP Also in AA, the 6’5” right-hander is positioning himself for a midyear promotion to AAA. With 63K in 98 IP, he doesn’t have outstanding stuff, but his control could make him a mid-rotation starter. Carlos Perez – LHP Only 19 and only in A-ball (again) and he’s not exactly thriving there. But he’s got a 90mph sinker that, if he can harness it, could rocket him up the ladder. He sounds a little bit like Liriano, actually. Arodys Vizcaino – RHP The 21-year-old fireballer rocketed through the organization to impact Atlanta’s bullpen last year. Unfortunately, it looks like that is his future, and it’s a future at least a year away as he was shelved for Tommy John surgery this March.