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Everything posted by John Bonnes
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DD132ReLx9s To hear the actual podcast, go to http://gleemanandthegeek.com/ After recording the 68th episode of their "Gleeman and The Geek" podcast Aaron Gleeman and John Bonnes are joined by documentary filmmaker Nathan Fisher for a "Cribs"-like tour of Gleemanor.
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I gotta think Hannahan is almost a given, if they can get him on a minor league deal.
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I'm thankful for a talented corps of independent Twins writers, both those who contribute here or elsewhere. And I'm thankful that the media, the Twins and the independent writers are working together to show the beauty in the game that we see and feel. That includes great minor league coverage, headlined by Seth, who really champions them tirelessly. And it includes the Gleeman and the Geek podcast, which I've really enjoyed doing both because it has allowed me to get to know Aaron better and because it has inspired me to stay engaged.
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http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/tom_verducci/11/20/arizona-fall-league-top-prospects/index.html?hpt=hp_t2 I don't know what to think of Roberts exactly, but Verducci's writeup of him made me smile. To summarize: 1) He isn't toolsy 2) He's old for his leagues 3) But damn, he's been putting up numbers and 4) Seems to be good at being hit by pitches. I don't know exactly what to do with all that, but it was interesting.
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Coupla things... 1) To me, Oswalt has limited value as a reliever for the Twins. I'm not opposed to him, but I'm also happy enough going dumpster diving for relievers and hope for some finds. That's funny for me to admit, because last year I was very critical of signing Joel Zumaya because I felt like they needed to fill that role with someone they could count on. This year, I'd be happy with a Zumaya signing. 2) Where did you get this data? It's kind of cool. 3) I wonder if .8 mph (if I'm reading the data right) is really much of a difference for a pitcher that is moved to the bullpen. It seems every pitcher would show some jump, and without any data I would think a couple of MPH might be fairly average. For instance, as a reliever, he never threw more than 20 pitchers. It wouldn't be shocked if, even as a starter, his first 20 pitches had more mph than his next 20. (Though, it also wouldn't surprise me if the mph increased as he "warmed up". ) I guess my question is how that increase compares to other pitchers who did a split role like Oswalt did. I think Perkins, for instance, added 3-5 mph to his fastball as a reliever, though I could be remembering that wrong.
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Looks like some people are noticing Max Kepler's performance. Topps awarded him the Appalachian League Player of the Year. Congratulations Max. I've heard about Kepler since he signed, mostly because he signed in the same year that the Twins went nuts with international money. But I don't know that I've heard any projections on who or what he could become. Any insight?
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I like this idea. And we have enough quality media members in this town that I'm sure would be open to it. Anyone have some example questions? I'd love to share them with them.
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Does Torii Hunter's Contract Bode Will For Josh Willingham Trade?
John Bonnes posted a blog entry in TwinsGeek.com
Torii Hunter had 12 or 13 teams chasing after him?!? And signed for two years and $26M? Then how much must Josh Willingham, who hit twice as many home runs as Hunter last year and makes half as much, be worth? I thought of this question on Sunday as I was podcasting with Aaron Gleeman. A quick look at the top free agent outfielders made me even more interested. Below are the top five free agent outfielders. Let’s go through them as a general manager who is looking for right-handed power in an outfielder. We’ll bold the ones that fit that description…. Josh Hamilton – Left-handed AND ridiculously expensive Curtis Granderson – Not available. BJ Upton – Perfect – If you’re willing to pay 6 years and $90M. Michael Bourn – Great centerfielder, but no power. Nick Swisher – Switch-hitter, quite a bit of power who will likely need a four-year deal. (He also hits better as a left-hander.) Those are the guys that I thought would make more than Hunter this offseason. Compared to them, Willingham – who hit more home runs than Upton or Swisher – looks like a effective but much more affordable and risk-adverse solution. Unfortunately, just below that level are a few names that a general manager could turn to if they miss out on the big names… Cody Ross – Right-handed and hit 22 home runs last year, albeit in Fenway. Shane Victorino – No power. Angel Pagan – Not enough power. Ichiro Suzuki – Not enough power any more. Melky Cabrera – Signed. Ryan Ludwick – Right-handed and hit 26 home runs last year, albeit in Great American Ballpark. Delmon Young – Right-handed and hit 18 home runs last year in Comerica Park. Even though he hit quite a few more home runs in a tougher ballpark, Willingham is not viewed as significantly different than Ross, Ludwick and Young. And all three of those guys will get contracts similar or less than Willingham’s. The Twins took advantage of that perception last offseason when they Twins were able to sign Willingham to his affordable deal. Also, Willingham's defense looks pretty bad, though it isn’t terrible according to metrics like UZR, which says he cost the Twins just 8 runs over the average left fielder. Still, that perception could limit National League teams interest. The bottom line is that if a GM is looking to add some right-handed pop to his lineup, there are some other options. While they might not be as good, they also aren’t going to cost a blue chip prospect and they aren’t going to break the bank. If Twins fans want to see a big return for Willingham, this offseason probably isn’t the best time to trade him, despite the interest there was in Hunter. -
Does Torii Hunter's Contract Bode Will For Josh Willingham Trade?
John Bonnes commented on John Bonnes's blog entry in TwinsGeek.com
Torii Hunter had 12 or 13 teams chasing after him?!? And signed for two years and $26M? Then how much must Josh Willingham, who hit twice as many home runs as Hunter last year and makes half as much, be worth? I thought of this question on Sunday as I was podcasting with Aaron Gleeman. A quick look at the top free agent outfielders made me even more interested. Below are the top five free agent outfielders. Let’s go through them as a general manager who is looking for right-handed power in an outfielder. We’ll bold the ones that fit that description…. Josh Hamilton – Left-handed AND ridiculously expensive Curtis Granderson – Not available. BJ Upton – Perfect – If you’re willing to pay 6 years and $90M. Michael Bourn – Great centerfielder, but no power. Nick Swisher – Switch-hitter, quite a bit of power who will likely need a four-year deal. (He also hits better as a left-hander.) Those are the guys that I thought would make more than Hunter this offseason. Compared to them, Willingham – who hit more home runs than Upton or Swisher – looks like a effective but much more affordable and risk-adverse solution. Unfortunately, just below that level are a few names that a general manager could turn to if they miss out on the big names… Cody Ross – Right-handed and hit 22 home runs last year, albeit in Fenway. Shane Victorino – No power. Angel Pagan – Not enough power. Ichiro Suzuki – Not enough power any more. Melky Cabrera – Signed. Ryan Ludwick – Right-handed and hit 26 home runs last year, albeit in Great American Ballpark. Delmon Young – Right-handed and hit 18 home runs last year in Comerica Park. Even though he hit quite a few more home runs in a tougher ballpark, Willingham is not viewed as significantly different than Ross, Ludwick and Young. And all three of those guys will get contracts similar or less than Willingham’s. The Twins took advantage of that perception last offseason when they Twins were able to sign Willingham to his affordable deal. Also, Willingham's defense looks pretty bad, though it isn’t terrible according to metrics like UZR, which says he cost the Twins just 8 runs over the average left fielder. Still, that perception could limit National League teams interest. The bottom line is that if a GM is looking to add some right-handed pop to his lineup, there are some other options. While they might not be as good, they also aren’t going to cost a blue chip prospect and they aren’t going to break the bank. If Twins fans want to see a big return for Willingham, this offseason probably isn’t the best time to trade him, despite the interest there was in Hunter. -
Does Torii Hunter's Contract Bode Well For A Josh Willingham Trade?
John Bonnes posted an article in Twins
Torii Hunter had 12 or 13 teams chasing after him?!? And signed for two years and $26M? Then how much must Josh Willingham, who hit twice as many home runs as Hunter last year and makes half as much, be worth? I thought of this question on Sunday as I was podcasting with Aaron Gleeman. A quick look at the top free agent outfielders made me even more interested.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Below are the top five free agent outfielders. Let’s go through them as a general manager who is looking for right-handed power in an outfielder. We’ll bold the ones that fit that description…. Josh Hamilton – Left-handed AND ridiculously expensive Curtis Granderson – Not available. BJ Upton – Perfect – If you’re willing to pay 6 years and $90M. Michael Bourn – Great centerfielder, but no power. Nick Swisher – Switch-hitter, quite a bit of power who will likely need a four-year deal. (He also hits better as a left-hander.) Those are the guys that I thought would make more than Hunter this offseason. Compared to them, Willingham – who hit more home runs than Upton or Swisher – looks like a effective but much more affordable and risk-adverse solution. Unfortunately, just below that level are a few names that a general manager could turn to if they miss out on the big names… Cody Ross – Right-handed and hit 22 home runs last year, albeit in Fenway. Shane Victorino – No power. Angel Pagan – Not enough power. Ichiro Suzuki – Not enough power any more. Melky Cabrera – Signed. Ryan Ludwick – Right-handed and hit 26 home runs last year, albeit in Great American Ballpark. Delmon Young – Right-handed and hit 18 home runs last year in Comerica Park. Even though he hit quite a few more home runs in a tougher ballpark, Willingham is not viewed as significantly different than Ross, Ludwick and Young. And all three of those guys will get contracts similar or less than Willingham’s. The Twins took advantage of that perception last offseason when they Twins were able to sign Willingham to his affordable deal. Also, Willingham's defense looks pretty bad, though it isn’t terrible according to metrics like UZR, which says he cost the Twins just 8 runs over the average left fielder. Still, that perception could limit National League teams interest. The bottom line is that if a GM is looking to add some right-handed pop to his lineup, there are some other options. While they might not be as good, they also aren’t going to cost a blue chip prospect and they aren’t going to break the bank. If Twins fans want to see a big return for Willingham, this offseason probably isn’t the best time to trade him, despite the interest there was in Hunter. -
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1182-Episode-68-Live-from-GleeManor
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[ATTACH=CONFIG]2710[/ATTACH]Aaron and John are at GleeManor being filmed for a documentary and talk about Scott Baker signing with the Cubs, Torii Hunter's post-Twins career and return to the AL Central, poor Mike Redmond, how the local media has and hasn't changed in their decade of blogging, why the Tigers and Blue Jays seem more willing to make big moves than the Twins, and their planned trip to see Hannibal Buress. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.
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Aaron and John are at GleeManor being filmed for a documentary and talk about Scott Baker signing with the Cubs, Torii Hunter's post-Twins career and return to the AL Central, poor Mike Redmond, how the local media has and hasn't changed in their decade of blogging, why the Tigers and Blue Jays seem more willing to make big moves than the Twins, and their planned trip to see Hannibal Buress. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.
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Rochester Red Wings name Coaching Staff
John Bonnes replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Wow. Talk about going outsider the organization. So the pitching coach was LaRussa's bullpen coach for 10 years and the hitting coach is a college/independent league guy? -
If we're looking for a guy to just fill in innings on a minimum deal, I would be at least interested in Jeff Francis. I don't expect much, but his strikeout rate bumped back up last year, and I'd like to get him out of Colorado's thin air. I'd also roll the dice on Scott Feldman. And I'd be interested to see what Chris Young is like a year after his anterior capsule tear, ala Johan Santana.
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Boston Globe Cafardo: Pavano Could Sign Minor League Deal
John Bonnes replied to ScottyB's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Absolutely. Though I think getting him on a minor league deal is optimistic. This year, the Twins totally misdiagnosed his injury, so I don' t know what you can take from it. But in 2010 and 2011 he threw 443 innings. His ERA was about 4 and so was his xFIP and FIP. And the injury was a bone bruise, not something ligament related. Frankly, if you can get that guy on a minor league deal, not only do you do it, but there is not excuse for building a very good rotation strictly from the free agent market. All that's required is patience. -
Who might be the Joe Benson of 2013?
John Bonnes replied to Pius Jefferson's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
It might be Benson. I'm going to go with Berrios. Second place is Arcia. Third is Sano. -
WE had a pretty good story on this site on this: http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?526-A-History-Lesson-Twins-Pitching-Draft-Edition For some reason, the Twins went away spending high picks on pitchers in 2006 and 2007, had a couple of clunkers in 2008 and have had injuries to their top piicks in 2009 and 2010. Prior to that they were on a roll with pitchers, but I don't know if a change in philosophy is really the culprit. They just haven't done as well. Some of that might be on the new draft guy, but some is just on not taking guys in 2006 and 2007.
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Strib's Howard Sinker: Twins are the Nishiokas of MLB
John Bonnes replied to Jim Crikket's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
It seems like Howard is advocating spending in the short term as a patch. That's fine to say, but harder to do, and impossible to do earlier in the season. The names that will sign now, at least as far as pitching, are going to want long-term deals. If we want to wait for the 1 and 2-year deals, then we aren't going to see many before Christmas. I'm not saying it's a bad strategy - I lobbied and lobbied hard even last season to not penny-pinch. But I think we're jumping the gun here. Of course, one way to appease fans now would be to be forthright about just how much money the Twins have to spend this offseason. Because we automatically (and justifiably) assume the worst when the management won't commit to that. -
Is Mike Redmond the next Joe Girardi?
John Bonnes commented on twinslover's blog entry in Blog twinslover
Hmmm.... that's an interesting thought. Things would need to deteriorate quickly with the Marlins for that to happen - or else the Twins would need to pay a ransom for him, I suppose. -
This was brought up in the recent thread about the BP Twins top 10 list, but I want to talk about it a little more generally, so I thought I'd start a new thread. It is not uncommon to see a recent high draft choice be at the top of an organization's prospect ranking list. It's not crazy to do so. After all, they have made a significant investment in that player and their scouts (and likely scouts of other teams) are in love with him. And yet.... Scouts are often wrong. Teams are often wrong. I don't know how many first round picks (or top 10 picks) don't make the majors at all, but I'm sure studies have been done on that. I'd be interested to see how it compares to a fairly young guy who does well (not great, but well) at AA. (AA is often viewed as the league where the biggest step up is taken for prospects.) I wouldn't be surprised if the latter has a better chance of making it to the majors or even of having a successful major league career. They might even have a better chance at being an All-star. If that's the case, then you could make a pretty good argument that Hicks or Rosario should be ranked higher than Buxton, and maybe higher than Sano. Or, maybe more importantly, that the organization should value them more - targeting similar players in a trade and be more willing to trade away the possible future star (or bust) who is still in the rookie league. Am I crazy?
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There is no evidence that the Twins went $20M over budget for payroll. At most, they went $8M (the cost of Pavano), and based on their own statements, it was probably closer to $4M. I don't personally have any problem with the Twins running their business like a business while Ilitch treats his like a fancy toy with super neat-o expensive options. But let's not pretend that the Twins ever did anything close to what Ilitch is doing now.

