John Bonnes

The easy reaction to the news that the Twins and Kevin Correia have agreed to a 2-year/$10 million deal is to overreact. I still plan to. But before I go down that path, I want to remind myself about paradigms. A paradigm is the story around the story that impacts our perceptions. The classic example (I think from Stephen Covey) is that while riding the subway, he saw the father of several small children watching them passively as they misbehaved quite badly on the subway. People were getting angry at the children and even angrier at his indifference. That perception, and the entire car’s reaction, changed when it became clear he and the children were coming from the hospital, where they had said their last goodbyes to his wife, their mom. A paradigm is the story the conman spins to make us think that doing something stupid is doing something smart. It can also lead to overreaction, as Aaron Gleeman and I discussed on our most recent podcast. We recalled the overwhelmingly negative reaction nationally and locally when the Twins drafted Ben Revere. Some of that reaction was undoubtedly driven by two paradigms in vogue at the time. First, that the Twins were cheap, and thus overdrafted Revere to save money. And second was that they were enamored with speedy piranhas over power. Ultimately, it isn’t clear that either was true, and it certainly isn’t clear that Revere was a good example of either. Here’s an interesting thought experiment. What if the paradigms at the time had been different? For instance, what if the Twins had the reputation of the “Moneyball” A’s? Had the A’s signed Revere, it would have been example of them recognizing the value of speed and defense, getting an underrated contributor in those overlooked areas at a bargain price. (And ultimately flipping him for more than he was worth.) It might well have been a love-fest. That’s the power – and the trap – of a paradigm. The signing of Correia faces a similar challenge. The current popular paradigms for the Twins are that they love “pitch to contact” starters and that they are cheap. Correia represents the worst of both of those philosophies. So, before I overreact, let me just say that I’m aware of these paradigms. I’m aware of their power. And I’m aware that neither paradigm is really true, with plenty of counter-examples. I’m even aware that Kevin Correia is not Jason Marquis. So what am I left with? Unfortunately, I think I’m left with Kevin Correia signed for two-years and $10 million. Correia's ERA over the last two years is 4.49 and that’s pitching in the National League. He wasn’t bad because he was unlucky. Instead, on those off-years where he’s been good, it’s because he has been lucky. And he’s never pitched in the AL. I guess he’s been fairly durable. However, just because you can make every start doesn’t mean you should, a lesson that the Pirates seemingly learned when they moved him to the bullpen after the trade deadline. And while there is room for a guy like that on the bottom end of a pitching staff, it isn’t on a multi-year deal. This is not dissimilar to the Twins signing Marquis last year. Except that Marquis wasn’t kicked off of the starting rotation the year before. And he had a better year. And he wasn’t given a multi-year deal. I get that the starting pitching market is drying up. I get that the Twins need someone to eat some innings. And I get that the most vitriolic critics will wallow in paradigms that aren’t really justified. But here’s something else that isn’t justified – giving Kevin Correia a two-year deal and 10 million dollars.

The easy reaction to the news that the Twins and Kevin Correia have agreed to a 2-year/$10 million deal is to overreact. I still plan to. But before I go down that path, I want to remind myself about paradigms. A paradigm is the story around the story that impacts our perceptions. The classic example (I think from Stephen Covey) is that while riding the subway, he saw the father of several small children watching them passively as they misbehaved quite badly on the subway. People were getting angry at the children and even angrier at his indifference. That perception, and the entire car’s reaction, changed when it became clear he and the children were coming from the hospital, where they had said their last goodbyes to his wife, their mom. A paradigm is the story the conman spins to make us think that doing something stupid is doing something smart. It can also lead to overreaction, as Aaron Gleeman and I discussed on our most recent podcast. We recalled the overwhelmingly negative reaction nationally and locally when the Twins drafted Ben Revere. Some of that reaction was undoubtedly driven by two paradigms in vogue at the time. First, that the Twins were cheap, and thus overdrafted Revere to save money. And second was that they were enamored with speedy piranhas over power. Ultimately, it isn’t clear that either was true, and it certainly isn’t clear that Revere was a good example of either. Here’s an interesting thought experiment. What if the paradigms at the time had been different? For instance, what if the Twins had the reputation of the “Moneyball” A’s? Had the A’s signed Revere, it would have been example of them recognizing the value of speed and defense, getting an underrated contributor in those overlooked areas at a bargain price. (And ultimately flipping him for more than he was worth.) It might well have been a love-fest. That’s the power – and the trap – of a paradigm. The signing of Correia faces a similar challenge. The current popular paradigms for the Twins are that they love “pitch to contact” starters and that they are cheap. Correia represents the worst of both of those philosophies. So, before I overreact, let me just say that I’m aware of these paradigms. I’m aware of their power. And I’m aware that neither paradigm is really true, with plenty of counter-examples. I’m even aware that Kevin Correia is not Jason Marquis. So what am I left with? Unfortunately, I think I’m left with Kevin Correia signed for two-years and $10 million. Correia's ERA over the last two years is 4.49 and that’s pitching in the National League. He wasn’t bad because he was unlucky. Instead, on those off-years where he’s been good, it’s because he has been lucky. And he’s never pitched in the AL. I guess he’s been fairly durable. However, just because you can make every start doesn’t mean you should, a lesson that the Pirates seemingly learned when they moved him to the bullpen after the trade deadline. And while there is room for a guy like that on the bottom end of a pitching staff, it isn’t on a multi-year deal. This is not dissimilar to the Twins signing Marquis last year. Except that Marquis wasn’t kicked off of the starting rotation the year before. And he had a better year. And he wasn’t given a multi-year deal. I get that the starting pitching market is drying up. I get that the Twins need someone to eat some innings. And I get that the most vitriolic critics will wallow in paradigms that aren’t really justified. But here’s something else that isn’t justified – giving Kevin Correia a two-year deal and 10 million dollars.

Criminy. I can understand signing him - barely. But 2 years?

I'll just reiterate what Brock said - if you see people being uncivil, let us know. We've had an insane number of posts here over the last 72 hours, and I'm not afraid to delete/wrn/ban people if I've seen them, but we can't always see them.

I'd have snapped him up for that 15.5/2-year deal in a second. I'd love to know what the Twins offered. Were they close, and the DBacks were just a better fit for him, or did they bid quite a bit less? (And frankly, I'd have loved to see them get him for 2/17 if that's what it took.)

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1237-Gleeman-and-the-Geek-Episode-71-Ben-Revere-For-Vance-Worley-Trevor-May

Aaron and John talk about the Twins trading Ben Revere to the Phillies for Vance Worley and Trevor May, what it means for team's 2013 plans, how much everyone is counting on Aaron Hicks, what John and Aaron did after the last podcast, why Darrin Mastroianni suddenly has a big role, what the farm system looks like after back-to-back big trades, the Rule 5 draft, whether Justin Morneau and Josh Willingham are next up on the trading block, and John's dog's digestive system. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

Aaron and John talk about the Twins trading Ben Revere to the Phillies for Vance Worley and Trevor May, what it means for team's 2013 plans, how much everyone is counting on Aaron Hicks, what John and Aaron did after the last podcast, why Darrin Mastroianni suddenly has a big role, what the farm system looks like after back-to-back big trades, the Rule 5 draft, whether Justin Morneau and Josh Willingham are next up on the trading block, and John's dog's digestive system. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

I wonder if we're thinking about this the wrong way. Let me offer a different type of deal, one that might make a lot more sense for the Twins.... Since the Twins likely won't be able to spend that money this offseason anyway (and maybe not next), what if the the Twins send Mauer to the Red Sox with the offer of paying, say, 50% of his salary over the next two years? In return, the Twins want top prospect back from the Sox, particulaly pitching and middle infield. (I don't really know who thay have that's desirable.) A $23M Mauer might not be that valuable to them, but a $11M Mauer has to be worth four top prospects, right? The Twins get young talent, the money they save this year year is essentially used to buy that young talent, and they free up payroll to pay these guys when they get expensive in a few years. Would that kind of deal make sense? Anyone got any Sox prospects they want to float out there?

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1234-Does-Ben-Revere’s-Departure-Portend-Justin-Morneau-Trade

It was the second big trade of the offseason for the Minnesota Twins, and the second concrete indicator to the league and to fans that General Manager Terry Ryan is looking beyond 2013. Indeed, it was the second time in which a trade likely made the Twins worse for the 2013, instead of better. Which is odd, because it was a great trade. Ben Revere has plenty of value, but was not without question marks and could be replaceable as early as the second half of this year. The pitchers the Twins received in return, Vance Worley and Trevor May, are also not without question marks, but they’re exactly what the Twins needed to get – young, cheap pitching that can contribute in the majors. But the Twins offseason has seemingly pivoted since the TwinsCentric interview with Terry Ryan. If the focus for the organization is not on 2013, then what does the future hold for Justin Morneau, who becomes a free agent following this season? Let’s see have a looks at the pros and cons with which the front office might be wrestling… Pro: 2013 is toast…. Con: ….but you might still want people to come to the ballpark. As starting pitching free agents are snapped up, the Twins are increasingly unlikely to compete in 2013. But the Twins are also just starting their fourth year in their new stadium, have the All-Star Game coming in 2014, and are looking to rebound soon after with the prospects that are brimming from their minor leagues. It’s always a lot easier to retain customers than to get new ones. Morneau, besides serving as a veteran presence in the clubhouse for new players, can bridge that competitive gap for fans, especially those casual fans who might be more cynical about the future of the team. It doesn’t hurt that he and his wife are well-liked and active in the community. He is more than just another bat – he’s an ambassador at an especially fragile time for the organization. Pro: He can be replaced by Chris Parmelee…. Con: ….but who replaces Chris Parmelee? The Twins have a left-handed first baseman in the wings, Chris Parmelee, who launched himself up the prospect charts with a monster season in AAA-Rochester last year. But with both Denard Span and Revere gone, Parmelee already has a spot waiting for him in the outfield. What’s more, the prospect mostly likely to be ready in 2013, Aaron Hicks, is already earmarked to move into center field. If Parmelee moves to first, that means filling his spot with either Joe Benson, who had a terrible 2012 in Rochester and AA-New Britain, or Oswaldo Arcia, who is only a half year removed from High A-Fort Myers. Both COULD get a shot, and both might if the Twins look at 2013 as a year to invest in youngsters. But neither is a great bet to thrive real soon. Pro: Teams are looking for big bats… Con: ….but will be looking for big bats at the trade deadline, too. There is really only one good first baseman on the free agent market – Adam LaRoche – and he seems to have no lack of suitors. One of them, the Orioles, has already been linked to Morneau in trade rumors, for whatever that is worth. The Twins told reporters not to believe everything they hear, but they said that about trading Revere, too. There is a market for Morneau. But the market could be there in July, too. At that point, he’ll hopefully have four more healthy months behind him. If he hits like he did the second half of last year, he’ll have a track record to generate plenty of interest. (Hell, if that’s the case, the Twins might even think of extending him.) Finally, he won’t cost his new team $14M, but closer to $5M, making him that much more attractive. Hmm… speaking of money….. Pro: He’s owed $14M this season…. Con: ….but the Twins aren’t going to spend it anyway…. Pro: ….unless they use it to pay Morneau on his new team. The biggest single reason to consider trading Morneau this offseason was to free up $14M to spend on starting pitching. Even if the Twins traded Morneau for nothing, the $14M would have been enough to get a top flight pitcher, like Dan Haren, who signed a one-year deal this week for less than that. But now, that $14M likely isn’t leaving the Twins coffers. Frontline starting pitching isn’t just expensive – it’s expensive long-term. Ryan fears giving players contracts that are one or two years longer than is sane, and it appears that will be the case for the majority of top pitchers remaining. At this point, it’s debatable if the Twins are going to spend the $20-30M we thought they would. An extra $14M isn’t going to help. But on the third hand, this would free up the Twins to make the kind of trade that (to my knowledge) they have NEVER done. They could trade away a big contract, but pick up a chunk of the cost for an excellent prospect. The Orioles might not be willing to give up much for a $14M Morneau. The might give up a tremendous amount for a $10M Morneau. So which way do you go? To me, the path isn’t clear, but the answer is. The answer? “He’s available, for the right price.” That’s what the answer has been for the better part of six months now, and the price has been too high. With the Twins new focus on 2014 and beyond, I won’t be surprised if some new customers don’t stop by to see just how available Morneau might be.

It was the second big trade of the offseason for the Minnesota Twins, and the second concrete indicator to the league and to fans that General Manager Terry Ryan is looking beyond 2013. Indeed, it was the second time in which a trade likely made the Twins worse for the 2013, instead of better. Which is odd, because it was a great trade. Ben Revere has plenty of value, but was not without question marks and could be replaceable as early as the second half of this year. The pitchers the Twins received in return, Vance Worley and Trevor May, are also not without question marks, but they’re exactly what the Twins needed to get – young, cheap pitching that can contribute in the majors. But the Twins offseason has seemingly pivoted since the TwinsCentric interview with Terry Ryan. If the focus for the organization is not on 2013, then what does the future hold for Justin Morneau, who becomes a free agent following this season? Let’s see have a looks at the pros and cons with which the front office might be wrestling… Pro: 2013 is toast…. Con: ….but you might still want people to come to the ballpark. As starting pitching free agents are snapped up, the Twins are increasingly unlikely to compete in 2013. But the Twins are also just starting their fourth year in their new stadium, have the All-Star Game coming in 2014, and are looking to rebound soon after with the prospects that are brimming from their minor leagues. It’s always a lot easier to retain customers than to get new ones. Morneau, besides serving as a veteran presence in the clubhouse for new players, can bridge that competitive gap for fans, especially those casual fans who might be more cynical about the future of the team. It doesn’t hurt that he and his wife are well-liked and active in the community. He is more than just another bat – he’s an ambassador at an especially fragile time for the organization. Pro: He can be replaced by Chris Parmelee…. Con: ….but who replaces Chris Parmelee? The Twins have a left-handed first baseman in the wings, Chris Parmelee, who launched himself up the prospect charts with a monster season in AAA-Rochester last year. But with both Denard Span and Revere gone, Parmelee already has a spot waiting for him in the outfield. What’s more, the prospect mostly likely to be ready in 2013, Aaron Hicks, is already earmarked to move into center field. If Parmelee moves to first, that means filling his spot with either Joe Benson, who had a terrible 2012 in Rochester and AA-New Britain, or Oswaldo Arcia, who is only a half year removed from High A-Fort Myers. Both COULD get a shot, and both might if the Twins look at 2013 as a year to invest in youngsters. But neither is a great bet to thrive real soon. Pro: Teams are looking for big bats… Con: ….but will be looking for big bats at the trade deadline, too. There is really only one good first baseman on the free agent market – Adam LaRoche – and he seems to have no lack of suitors. One of them, the Orioles, has already been linked to Morneau in trade rumors, for whatever that is worth. The Twins told reporters not to believe everything they hear, but they said that about trading Revere, too. There is a market for Morneau. But the market could be there in July, too. At that point, he’ll hopefully have four more healthy months behind him. If he hits like he did the second half of last year, he’ll have a track record to generate plenty of interest. (Hell, if that’s the case, the Twins might even think of extending him.) Finally, he won’t cost his new team $14M, but closer to $5M, making him that much more attractive. Hmm… speaking of money….. Pro: He’s owed $14M this season…. Con: ….but the Twins aren’t going to spend it anyway…. Pro: ….unless they use it to pay Morneau on his new team. The biggest single reason to consider trading Morneau this offseason was to free up $14M to spend on starting pitching. Even if the Twins traded Morneau for nothing, the $14M would have been enough to get a top flight pitcher, like Dan Haren, who signed a one-year deal this week for less than that. But now, that $14M likely isn’t leaving the Twins coffers. Frontline starting pitching isn’t just expensive – it’s expensive long-term. Ryan fears giving players contracts that are one or two years longer than is sane, and it appears that will be the case for the majority of top pitchers remaining. At this point, it’s debatable if the Twins are going to spend the $20-30M we thought they would. An extra $14M isn’t going to help. But on the third hand, this would free up the Twins to make the kind of trade that (to my knowledge) they have NEVER done. They could trade away a big contract, but pick up a chunk of the cost for an excellent prospect. The Orioles might not be willing to give up much for a $14M Morneau. The might give up a tremendous amount for a $10M Morneau. So which way do you go? To me, the path isn’t clear, but the answer is. The answer? “He’s available, for the right price.” That’s what the answer has been for the better part of six months now, and the price has been too high. With the Twins new focus on 2014 and beyond, I won’t be surprised if some new customers don’t stop by to see just how available Morneau might be.

Apparently, John Manuel identified two guys who he thought were the top two on the board, both of which had that kind of stuff. Lara was one of them and Domingez(?) was the other. Neither was picked, not by the Twins, not by anyone. I'm not busting on Manuel, or on the Twins, or on the other GMs. I think it just shows that there is a lot of unknowns in this process. But I'd sure be a lot more excited about a big arm like that than I ame about Pressly, FWIW.

You touched on the big problem in the Phils organization - control. I can't imaging the can get Biddle. I'm intrigued by May. Worley - I kind of like him, but next year he'll be arbitration eligible. Would I take him straight up for Revere? Maybe. I don't know.

I caught that too, and fixed it, probably while you were commenting. He was 23 years old last year. (Also, just a point of grammar to all you budding writers out there: if that phrase is being used as a noun or adjective, it should have hyphens. So the 23-year-old or the 23-year-old pitcher will be turning 24 years old.)

Seems like a "C" prospect to me. Actually, he doesn't. The most damning thing about his stats that I can see is that at the end of this year, being used only as a reliever, he struck out 21 in 27 innings at AA. In fact, he's bounced between starter and reliever throughout his minor league career. So even the hope that his stuff will be amped up out of the 'pen seems unfounded. He is the longest of shots to stay with the team this year, IMHO. It might just be that the Rule 5 just isn't worth paying attention to any more. Or it might just be that the Twins, who have had the #2 and #4 picks the last two years and come up with almost nothing, just don't know how to really take advantage of it any more. Can anyone remember of any Rule 5 picks from last year for any team that look like they're going to be worthwhile?

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1232-Shift-In-Free-Agency-Strategy-Doesn-t-Favor-The-Minnesota-Twins

The Minnesota Twins might be looking back to the good old days wistfully for a reason other than wanting to relive their decade of glory. For instance, signing free agents used to be a relatively orderly business: Teams that needed a great pitcher would chase the best (or best remaining) pitcher, hoping to get him. One team would get him. Lather. Rinse. Repeat. That’s oversimplifying a little, but in general, free agents would sign from the top down. In fact, free agents might wait to sign until the guys above them signed, knowing the remaining teams would probably chase him, driving up his demand. But the market has matured. General managers seem to have a willingness to sign a slightly lower level or pitcher rather than be shut out of a better one. Meanwhile, free agents recognize their value a little better, are willing to take snap up a generous offer early (and probably like the lack of risk that comes with it.) It might also be that teams are recognizing the value that can come in from the second and third tier pitchers exceeds that which can come from the top guys. Whatever the reason, it sure isn’t top down this year. Here is the starting pitching free agent list I used when I started making the list for the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook. They are roughly sorted in order of desirability. The crossed out names are the guys that have signed with someone. Zack Greinke Anibal Sanchez Jake Peavy Edwin Jackson Ryan Dempster Hiroki Kuroda Kyle Lohse Brandon McCarthy Ervin Santana Dan Haren Shaun Marcum Joe Blanton Jeremy Guthrie Scott Baker Colby Lewis Joe Saunders Carl Pavano Francisco Liriano Scott Feldman Carlos Villanueva Chris Young Roy Oswalt Kevin Millwood Erik Bedard Bartolo Colon Kevin Correia Derek Lowe Jason Marquis Daisuke Matsuzaka Carlos Zambrano Freddy Garcia Jeff Francis Roberto Hernandez Chien-Ming Wang Aaron Cook Jamie Moyer Jonathan Sanchez Kip Wells Randy Wolf It isn’t the top tier that has signed – only two of those guys have signed already. It’s the second-tier that has been snapped up so far. Another fell yesterday, when Joe Blanton, clearly a second/third tier guy signed with a team that was linked to a lot of top-tier talent, the Angels. Overall, this feels like bad news for the Twins. The Twins have never chased top-tier talent, as they are (probably justifiably) hesitant to commit to the long-term deals that talent demands. But now the second tier is almost completely spoken for. This leaves third-tier talent, or non-tendered pitchers, all of which are by definition third-tier guys. The hope might be that it goes the other way. Perhaps some of the guys at the top will find their demand slipping away somewhat as top-tier teams gravitate toward the middle of the list. But from the rumor coming out of the winter meetings, it doesn’t sound like any of these guys are lacking for suitors right now. It seems more and more like the Twins choice is to overpay or to settle, and settling now means going to third and fourth tier pitchers. This further raises the question whether the Twins should place much hope in 2013 or look forward to 2014, and what that does to their offseason strategy.

The Minnesota Twins might be looking back to the good old days wistfully for a reason other than wanting to relive their decade of glory. For instance, signing free agents used to be a relatively orderly business: Teams that needed a great pitcher would chase the best (or best remaining) pitcher, hoping to get him. One team would get him. Lather. Rinse. Repeat. That’s oversimplifying a little, but in general, free agents would sign from the top down. In fact, free agents might wait to sign until the guys above them signed, knowing the remaining teams would probably chase him, driving up his demand. But the market has matured. General managers seem to have a willingness to sign a slightly lower level or pitcher rather than be shut out of a better one. Meanwhile, free agents recognize their value a little better, are willing to take snap up a generous offer early (and probably like the lack of risk that comes with it.) It might also be that teams are recognizing the value that can come in from the second and third tier pitchers exceeds that which can come from the top guys. Whatever the reason, it sure isn’t top down this year. Here is the starting pitching free agent list I used when I started making the list for the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook. They are roughly sorted in order of desirability. The crossed out names are the guys that have signed with someone. Zack Greinke Anibal Sanchez Jake Peavy Edwin Jackson Ryan Dempster Hiroki Kuroda Kyle Lohse Brandon McCarthy Ervin Santana Dan Haren Shaun Marcum Joe Blanton Jeremy Guthrie Scott Baker Colby Lewis Joe Saunders Carl Pavano Francisco Liriano Scott Feldman Carlos Villanueva Chris Young Roy Oswalt Kevin Millwood Erik Bedard Bartolo Colon Kevin Correia Derek Lowe Jason Marquis Daisuke Matsuzaka Carlos Zambrano Freddy Garcia Jeff Francis Roberto Hernandez Chien-Ming Wang Aaron Cook Jamie Moyer Jonathan Sanchez Kip Wells Randy Wolf It isn’t the top tier that has signed – only two of those guys have signed already. It’s the second-tier that has been snapped up so far. Another fell yesterday, when Joe Blanton, clearly a second/third tier guy signed with a team that was linked to a lot of top-tier talent, the Angels. Overall, this feels like bad news for the Twins. The Twins have never chased top-tier talent, as they are (probably justifiably) hesitant to commit to the long-term deals that talent demands. But now the second tier is almost completely spoken for. This leaves third-tier talent, or non-tendered pitchers, all of which are by definition third-tier guys. The hope might be that it goes the other way. Perhaps some of the guys at the top will find their demand slipping away somewhat as top-tier teams gravitate toward the middle of the list. But from the rumor coming out of the winter meetings, it doesn’t sound like any of these guys are lacking for suitors right now. It seems more and more like the Twins choice is to overpay or to settle, and settling now means going to third and fourth tier pitchers. This further raises the question whether the Twins should place much hope in 2013 or look forward to 2014, and what that does to their offseason strategy.

I"m not going to cry and bitter tears over Blanton. It's possible he would be a lot better if his home field was Target Field than The Bank, but for $7.5M/year, I'm not anxious to risk it. So Jeff Francis is going back to Colorado? Is he a masochist? Why does he keep going back to that launching pad? I'm not a huge fan of his, but I'd have loved to see him sign a one-year deal for cheap provided the Twins had an option year. I'd be intrigued to see what he could do in a pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Well, I think it would be fire-able to not bring in anyone, just because I think for the most part we know what we have in the guys we saw last year. There is not point in reserving innnings for them. That's doesn't mean I'm opposed to bringing in guys with some risk and upside - PROVIDED there is a future payoff. I think this means having an option year on 2014, or bringing in guys who aren't at 6 years service time. I'd be more willing to try out minor league free agents than sign lower level guys, even if they have upside, to a one-year deal.