John Bonnes

First, I'm a little disturbed that getting right-handed power power back would be a deal-breaker, so I'm going to gloss over that. OK, let's break this down..... In the Handbook, the pitchers Braves could offer are in this order... "Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Paul Maholm, Randall Delgado, Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Tim Hudson, and Kris Medlen." No on Jurrjens (obviously) or Hanson or Maholm, or at least not straight up. - Delgado....I'd think about that one a lot, though I might be a little worried that he would be another Frankie - just shaky enough control to doom him in this organization. But I'd be tempted. - Minor - I think I would trade him for Minor straight up. I think he's figured it out. Not a #1 buy, but a solid #3 that they can ride for years. - Teheran - I know he's more highly regarded, but I wouldn't trade for him right now. I'm worried about him. - Hudson - I think it's a moot point - Medlen - Well, sure, duh.

Aaron and I have argued a bit on the relative value of Jeremy Guthrie, and I don't see why we should have all the fun.... How would you feel about the Twins signing Guthrie to the amount that is in the Handbook: 2-years/$16M. (Let's ignore, for now, that he thinks he's going to get 3/34, for the purposes of this discussion.) Here's his baseball-reference page. Here's his Fan Graphs page. On the one hand, he's pretty consistently thrown about 200 innings per season with an ERA usually around 4. (Since 2007, when started in the majors full time, his ERA is 4.03 IF you throw out his crappy stint in COL last season.) On the other hand, he's 33 years old and his career strikeout rate is 5.4 K/9. His career xFIP is 4.63. I would welcome him at that Handbook's price. I would not welcome him at the price he's looking for. I understand the concern about his "stuff." But I think there's room for an inning eater on this staff.

Re: Arcia - I can see both sides. I wonder what he's doing this winter, and if that will play into the decision. If you read the interview with Terry Ryan, he sure seemed to suggest that they feel like they've moved him up pretty fast recently and seemed to be wondering if starting him at AAA was moving him too fast. One thing that might play into the decision is that there isn't necessarily a good reason to move him up there if he's going to need to sit there waiting all season. There is already a logjam, though I hope that will be cleared with a trade this offsesason. But I suspect they think Hicks is next in line, and then Arcia. That's not necessarily a reason to not promote him to AAA, but it does relax the urgency of moving him up the ladder.

I still think I have a box of clipping from 1987 in my basement someplace, but I wish, wish, really wish that I had the stack of them I had when I was following that run from afar. I didn't bring them back, and I'd sure love to see them again. It's weird how holding something like that can bring back memories.

These are fair points, and you could probably take them a step further by looking at Dozier's career numbers. But I'll also give Dozier this - I think they Twins handled him last year about as poorly as they could, and it sure seems like a lot of that was driven by Gardenhire's mancrush on him.

I don't have any inside information on this, but I wouldn't be shocked to see Arcia start the year in AA and I think Berrios will not be in a full season league next year - at least not to start the season.

I've never hunted (though I would like to) but I used to fish a lot as a teenager with my grandpa, so I know what you mean about having a lot of time to think quietly. In response to your topics... 1. I BET you're thinking about that. My only advice: marriage is the foundation and the kids are the house. Don't ever risk the foundation for the house. You will be tempted. 2. Well, of course. Kudos for admitting it. 3. Don't worry too much about Mauer's money. The Twins can build a good contending team on the remaining $70M, especially if they get to starts with a catcher that can bat 3rd. 4. Do you bring a camera that has any kind of zoom? 5. I look forward to the next post.

Um, it's not like the Twins couldn't trade Shields if this or next season goes down the drain.

Buster Olney reports that Jeremy Bonderman is coming back from reconstructive elbow surgery. Meanwhile, Javier Vazquez is also contemplating a comeback after not pitching professionally last year. Both have some intrigue... Vasquez is 36, and wasn't signed last season, but that was a weird situation, becasue he sure didnt struggle in 2011. He had a 3.69 ERA and threw 192.2 innings for the Marlins, which is a hell of a good year. I always think of him as a National League pitcher, because he only had one good year in the American League, but that also could be coincidence. Bonderman had the misfortune of coming of age during the Tigers miserable years and getting thrust into the majors before he seemingly was ready. He had a 5.53 ERA in Detroit in 2010, but pitched 171 innings. Last I heard he was negotiating with Cleveland before 2011, but dropped off the map after that. He says he's only looking for a minor league deal with a spring invite. I have to think the Twins would be an enticing opportunity for him, given all the opportunities in their rotation. By the way - he only just turned 30 years old. I'm sure neither of these guys is going to excite people much and likely won't make a huge difference in 2013. But I'll add this: I wouldn't be shocked if "semi-retired players" are a significant market inefficiency within MLB. It seems like every year there are a couple of guys that we think are going to get a decent deal, but they over play their hand, and for whatever reason (probably pride?) end up not signing before April. But rather than sit out a year and then get back into the game, they are never heard from again. That seems like it's something a smart team might try to take advantage of.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1150-The-Case-For-Trading-Span

We're approaching the time when a long-time Twins player is going to be traded away. It will likely be Denard Span. In our interview for the 2013 Offseason Handbook, Terry Ryan was careful, but stated the obvious. When talking about Chris Parmelee being a regular, Ryan admitted "We're going to try and fit [Chris Parmelee] in there somewhere, without tipping my hand too far." Fitting Parmelee into the lineup as a regular means playing him at first base or in right field. That means moving one of four regulars: Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau, Ben Revere or Span. It's likely none are off the table, but Span is the most likely to be moved, not for any one reason, but for lots of little reasons, some of which are contradictory. He's valuable. Center fielders that can get on base, have a little power, occasionally steal and play above average center field don't grow on trees. There is a reason that Span's name has been bandied about by the Nationals and Red at the trade deadline the last two years: he's a commodity. In fact, for those attached to the more advanced sabrmetric stats, WAR (Wins Above Replacement) pegged Span as the most valuable Minnesota Twin last year - above Joe Mauer and Josh Willingham. He's replaceable. The Twins find themselves desperately short of pitching and middle infielders from the majors down through the minors. But this organization can sure develop center fielders. Twins fans know that Revere could step into center field for Span right now and probably improve the defense. And one-level below him is toolsy first round pick Aaron Hicks, who is going to be better defensively than either of them, and probably better offensively, too. And Twins fans have also already been introduced to Joe Benson, who can also hold down the position. He's becoming expensive. Span will make over $10M over the next two years of his contract. The Twins have limited funds after two straight years of declining attendance. That is $10M that could (and probably should) be used on pitching. He's not that expensive. There are going to be several free agent center fielders available this year - BJ Upton, Michael Bourn, Angel Pagan, Shane Victorino - but they're all going to cost a pretty penny. A 2 year/$10M commitment to Span is going to look like a bargain comparatively. There will be openings. While the free agents above will be snapped up by the highest bidder, their former teams are going to be looking for replacements. The Rays are going to lose Upton and don't have a great replacement for him; they also have been heavily rumored to be shopping some of their better pitchers, like James Shields and Jeremy Hellickson. Similarly, the Braves will likely lose Michael Bourn and they also have few centerfielders in their farm system. In our 2013 Offseason Handbook, there’s a whole essay on why it makes sense to trade with the Brave by Ben Chase. In it, he lays out the assets the Braves would consider trading, in order: "The Braves would probably trade their eight starters in the following order (most likely to least likely): Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Paul Maholm, Randall Delgado, Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Tim Hudson, and Kris Medlen. They've also got Brandon Beachy coming back midseason from Tommy John surgery and Sean Gilmartin knocking on the door in AAA." Chase admits the last half of that list is off the table for Span, but several of the first couple names are in play, and each would provide an affordable upgrade to the Twins rotation. Usually, when fans suggest a player should be traded, it's because they don't like him. Span, on the other hand, is well-regarded and maybe even undervalued. But a combination of traits - value, affordability, replacability and opportunity - make him the most likely player to be traded. And with the MLB General Manage meetings happening this weekend, it could happen sooner rather than later.

We're approaching the time when a long-time Twins player is going to be traded away. It will likely be Denard Span. In our interview for the 2013 Offseason Handbook, Terry Ryan was careful, but stated the obvious. When talking about Chris Parmelee being a regular, Ryan admitted "We're going to try and fit [Chris Parmelee] in there somewhere, without tipping my hand too far." Fitting Parmelee into the lineup as a regular means playing him at first base or in right field. That means moving one of four regulars: Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau, Ben Revere or Span. It's likely none are off the table, but Span is the most likely to be moved, not for any one reason, but for lots of little reasons, some of which are contradictory. He's valuable. Center fielders that can get on base, have a little power, occasionally steal and play above average center field don't grow on trees. There is a reason that Span's name has been bandied about by the Nationals and Red at the trade deadline the last two years: he's a commodity. In fact, for those attached to the more advanced sabrmetric stats, WAR (Wins Above Replacement) pegged Span as the most valuable Minnesota Twin last year - above Joe Mauer and Josh Willingham. He's replaceable. The Twins find themselves desperately short of pitching and middle infielders from the majors down through the minors. But this organization can sure develop center fielders. Twins fans know that Revere could step into center field for Span right now and probably improve the defense. And one-level below him is toolsy first round pick Aaron Hicks, who is going to be better defensively than either of them, and probably better offensively, too. And Twins fans have also already been introduced to Joe Benson, who can also hold down the position. He's becoming expensive. Span will make over $10M over the next two years of his contract. The Twins have limited funds after two straight years of declining attendance. That is $10M that could (and probably should) be used on pitching. He's not that expensive. There are going to be several free agent center fielders available this year - BJ Upton, Michael Bourn, Angel Pagan, Shane Victorino - but they're all going to cost a pretty penny. A 2 year/$10M commitment to Span is going to look like a bargain comparatively. There will be openings. While the free agents above will be snapped up by the highest bidder, their former teams are going to be looking for replacements. The Rays are going to lose Upton and don't have a great replacement for him; they also have been heavily rumored to be shopping some of their better pitchers, like James Shields and Jeremy Hellickson. Similarly, the Braves will likely lose Michael Bourn and they also have few centerfielders in their farm system. In our 2013 Offseason Handbook, there’s a whole essay on why it makes sense to trade with the Brave by Ben Chase. In it, he lays out the assets the Braves would consider trading, in order: "The Braves would probably trade their eight starters in the following order (most likely to least likely): Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Paul Maholm, Randall Delgado, Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Tim Hudson, and Kris Medlen. They've also got Brandon Beachy coming back midseason from Tommy John surgery and Sean Gilmartin knocking on the door in AAA." Chase admits the last half of that list is off the table for Span, but several of the first couple names are in play, and each would provide an affordable upgrade to the Twins rotation. Usually, when fans suggest a player should be traded, it's because they don't like him. Span, on the other hand, is well-regarded and maybe even undervalued. But a combination of traits - value, affordability, replacability and opportunity - make him the most likely player to be traded. And with the MLB General Manage meetings happening this weekend, it could happen sooner rather than later.

I wonder what would interest the Rays more - a package of prospects that helps with the future, or an everyday center fielder that helps them take advantage of the window of opportunity they have right now. I think it might be the latter, but one could argue either way.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1146-Gleeman-and-the-Geek-Ep-66-Interviewing-Terry-Ryan

Aaron and John talk about John's interview with Terry Ryan in the Offseason Handbook, cover lots of minor moves, and argue a lot. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

Aaron and John talk about John's interview with Terry Ryan in the Offseason Handbook, cover lots of minor moves, and argue a lot. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

Where does the "Twins Must Overpay" theory (or myth) come from? I've seen this referenced in a few threads and from (I think) different people, so I thought I'd dedicate one thread to talk about it. Usually, in the middle of a thread, I hear something like "No way this guy gets signed because not only would the Twins need to pay for a guy, they would need to pay a lot MORE for the guy." I'm always baffled by it, but I'm willing to listen. I have a few questions for those that espouse it: 1. Since when does anyone need to overpay for a guy in MLB? This isn't the NBA. In the NBA, where there are individual salary caps, players are far more likely to take other things - like how competitive the team is or the weather or whatever - into account, because there isn't more money. But in MLB, that cap doesn't exist. In fact, usually, the biggest criticism about free agents is just the opposite - that all they care about is the money. 2. Since when are the Twins so unappealing? This is especially true for pitchers. The Twins are generally know, at least under Ryan, as being a well-run organization. Gardy is known as a players manager. The ballpark is a dream for pitchers, especially those looking to regain some market value. They've sucked the last two years, but if everyone was chasing a ring, the only team everyone would sign with is the Yankees. (Again, usually the criticism is just the opposite - that players don't care enough about winning.) I think if you go down the list of all 29 other teams, you're going to find the Twins somewhere with the mass of other teams. 3. Is someone leading the charge on this? Is there someone in the media espousing this? I'm just wondering because I have no idea where this idea is coming from. I'm just curious. It is such a consistent comment that I assume someone is saying this on the radio or something. I was just wondering if anyone is hearing this talked or written about somewhere.

Well, I'm a little slow on the new CBA rules, obviously. I didn't realize that midseason trades could not get a qualifying offer. That's an interesing twist. I can see an imminent free agent with a no-trade clause waiving it so he doesn't get a qualifying offer in his offseason. I wouldn't be shocked if that's why Dempster ultimately agreed to a trade. Seth is right. This doesn't really affect the Twins this year. That's really good news.

I think we had him for 4/52 in the Handbook, and that seems high given the last 24 hours. Like I said in the other thread about the Angels/Cubs deal, I still don't believe that the Angels were going to pay for Marmol AND the $3.5M. But still, it seems like just about any offer to take him for 1/13 shoudl have been accepted by the Angels. If nobody wanted to do that, why would anyone do 4/52? When push comes to shove, I still wouldn't be suprised if some team looks at him and wonders why they didn't do that deal, as they pay close to that. But assuming things are as they seem, it would appear his market is somewhere around 3/35? That seems crazy to me. I'd jump on that in an instant.

If that deal - that the Angels send Haren + $3.5M to the Cubs for Marmol - was really the deal, there are roughly 28 other GMs that would have jumped into bed with the Angels, too. Supposedly, the whole reason the Angels were moving Haren was because they were on the hook for $3.5M. They're trying to save some money to pay to Greinke. By moving Haren, they either were going to get someone else to pay it, or pay it themselves and still get another player out of the deal. So I don't get this deal from the Angels standpoint. Why would they want to pay $9.8M for Marmol next year AND pay $3.5M to make Haren go away? It doesn't make any sense unless they have a totally irrational mancrush on Marmol, in which case nobody can match it . And, by the way, if that was the deal, there is NO WAY the Cubs back out of that. Like Epstein wouldn't give up Marmol and $2.7M for Haren? C'mon. I don't know if we'll ever hear the full story, but there is no way that deal was the deal.

Kyle Lohse is receiving a qualifying offer. It stands to reason that if he is, then a lot of other guys - especially starting pitchers - could too. For those that do, and turn it down, the signing team needs to give up a high draft pick. For the Twins, I *think* it would mean their second round pick. Would it be worth it? For instance, say Ryan Dempster costs the Twins 2 years/$26M, but also costs them their second round pick. Would you do it? GIven the Twins need to rebuild, it gives me pause. But if they don't, that could put quite a few pitchers out of reach, given that even Lohse and essentially Ervin Santana are getting that kind of offer.

So for those who haven't clicked over, there is a chart that shows how much they have traded with each major league team. I was a little surprised which they traded with the most. But now that I think about it, I remember quite a few trades with that team. I'm also a little surprised to realize that the Twins have made three intradivisional trades within the last two years. Huh.

I don't think they can. Offers to Otani will be limited by the cap on international signing bonuses. And I'm quite sure the CBA limits their ability to get around it with offers of a guaranteed contract.