John Bonnes

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1123-If-Twins-Will-Trade-Justin-Morneau-There-s-A-Way-Toward-Contention

According to the Washington Post, the only legitimately good first baseman on the free agent market, Adam LaRoche, is in talks to re-sign with the Nationals. In the 2013 Offseason Handbook, I think the next best option we found was Carlos Lee, who slugged just .365 (and is 36 years old.) What’s more, there aren’t a lot of good options on the free agent market to move to first base. For instance, Kevin Youkilis is available at third base, but if he can play third base (and it looks like he can) he’ll be signed as a third baseman. The last couple of years, the market has not been so thin. Last year, of course, was epically good, with Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder leading the charge. 2010 had Paul Konerko, but also Aubrey Huff, LaRoche, Carlos Pena and Lance Berkman. 2009 was thin, but 2008 had Mark Teixeira leading the class. It’s been years since we had a free agent first baseman sign for less than $6M, but that will almost certainly happen if LaRoche returns to the Nationals. This presents a unique opportunity to the Twins, if they choose to embrace it. In our 45-minute interview with Terry Ryan for the Offseason Handbook, he stated that 1B/OF Chris Parmelee will get every opportunity to play every day. While manager Ron Gardenhire says he’s satisfied with Parmelee’s defense in right field, the rest of the organization has shown no such endorsement. Indeed, in AAA-Rochester this year, he didn’t play a single game there. Moving incumbent Justin Morneau would not only make space for Parmelee, but free up $14 million to purchase starting pitching in a free agent market thick with it. Even if the Twins received nothing in return, that’s enough money to sign any starter except Zach Greinke. Ask yourself, would you trade Morneau for Jake Peavy, Dan Haren, or Anibal Sanchez? If you would, it makes sense to trade away Morneau for nothing more than a bag of bricks. Fortunately, for the Twins, that might not be necessary. There are not shortage of teams that struggled mightily at first base last year. SEVEN teams had an OPS lower less than 700 last year, and even the Rangers first basemen hit just .251/.301/.399. For a team struggling to fill major needs on a lower budget, the thin first base market is a godsend. If the Twins can find the will, there is almost certainly a way to bounce back quickly.

According to the Washington Post, the only legitimately good first baseman on the free agent market, Adam LaRoche, is in talks to re-sign with the Nationals. In the 2013 Offseason Handbook, I think the next best option we found was Carlos Lee, who slugged just .365 (and is 36 years old.) What’s more, there aren’t a lot of good options on the free agent market to move to first base. For instance, Kevin Youkilis is available at third base, but if he can play third base (and it looks like he can) he’ll be signed as a third baseman. The last couple of years, the market has not been so thin. Last year, of course, was epically good, with Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder leading the charge. 2010 had Paul Konerko, but also Aubrey Huff, LaRoche, Carlos Pena and Lance Berkman. 2009 was thin, but 2008 had Mark Teixeira leading the class. It’s been years since we had a free agent first baseman sign for less than $6M, but that will almost certainly happen if LaRoche returns to the Nationals. This presents a unique opportunity to the Twins, if they choose to embrace it. In our 45-minute interview with Terry Ryan for the Offseason Handbook, he stated that 1B/OF Chris Parmelee will get every opportunity to play every day. While manager Ron Gardenhire says he’s satisfied with Parmelee’s defense in right field, the rest of the organization has shown no such endorsement. Indeed, in AAA-Rochester this year, he didn’t play a single game there. Moving incumbent Justin Morneau would not only make space for Parmelee, but free up $14 million to purchase starting pitching in a free agent market thick with it. Even if the Twins received nothing in return, that’s enough money to sign any starter except Zach Greinke. Ask yourself, would you trade Morneau for Jake Peavy, Dan Haren, or Anibal Sanchez? If you would, it makes sense to trade away Morneau for nothing more than a bag of bricks. Fortunately, for the Twins, that might not be necessary. There are not shortage of teams that struggled mightily at first base last year. SEVEN teams had an OPS lower less than 700 last year, and even the Rangers first basemen hit just .251/.301/.399. For a team struggling to fill major needs on a lower budget, the thin first base market is a godsend. If the Twins can find the will, there is almost certainly a way to bounce back quickly.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1120-GATG-Ep-64-Postmortem-Geek-On-Wheels

[video=youtube;i9-h0fcFU-g] John show of his motorcycle minutes after the podcast - and moments before he realizes he's killed the battery, which will undoubtedly be talked about at length in Episode 65.

[video=youtube;i9-h0fcFU-g] John show of his motorcycle minutes after the podcast - and moments before he realizes he's killed the battery, which will undoubtedly be talked about at length in Episode 65.

You won't find bigger fans on Slama than some of the TC guys. If he was overlooked, it's because we believe the organization just doesn't value him.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1118-Twins-Purge-Matt-Capps-And-Seven-Others-From-40-Man-Roster

The Twins cleared eight players from their 40-man roster yesterday in moves that affected suspects, prospects and Matt Capps. Because there were actually forty-three players on the 40-man roster, the moves left five spots open which will be filled throughout the offseason by free agents and other new players as well as Twins prospects that the organization wants to protect. Of the eight, the biggest name was former closer Capps, who was acquired by the Twins by trade in 2012 and has signed two consecutive contracts with the Twins. The Twins had a $6 million option (with a $250,000 buyout) on Capps for next year, but he had been hurt for most of this last season, hurting his chances of making anywhere near that money on the free agent market. Capps release does suggest that the Twins aren’t currently talking with him about re-signing him yet again. They have a similar option on pitcher Scott Baker which they are also assuredly going to decline, but they did not do so yesterday, likely because they are in talks to re-sign him according to Terry Ryan. Of the other seven players released only one did not ever make it to the majors – relief prospect Carlos Gutierrez, who was claimed by the Chicago Cubs. Gutierrez was a first-round pick by the Twins in 2008, but stalled out in AAA and eventually underwent season-ending shoulder surgery this July. It is not clear when he’ll be able to pitch again. The cuts included five other pitchers: Esmerling Vasquez is a somewhat wild reliever who was converted to a starter midway through the year in Rochester. The 28-year-old had good success in that role but struggled with his control in a September promotion to the Twins. PJ Walters was a 27-year-old starter had spent time with the Cardinals and Blue Jays prior to this season. He had success in his initial few outings, but eventually was sidelined with a shoulder injury. He also struggled this September when he returned. Kyle Waldrop is also a first round pick by the Twins, but underwent shoulder surgery in 2008. He has since become a pitcher who lives and dies by getting ground balls. He appeared in 17 games with the Twins this season, all of them in relief. Jeff Manship bounced back from a injury-plagued 2011 to stay mostly healthy this year, but the 2.91 ERA he posted in Rochester didn’t translate to the majors. His threw relief in 12 games, posting a 7.89 ERA. Finally, Luis Perdomo joined the Twins last offseason from the Padres organization. He’s traditionally struggled with his control, but made progress in Rochester only to see that progress disappear in the majors. He appeared in 15 games, pitching seventeen innings and walking 12. The only batter trimmed was outfielder Matt Carson, who had been a bit of a surprise when he was called up to the majors in late August. The 31-year-old outfielder received 66 at-bats, hitting .211 with just one extra-base hit. While these represent moves represent the lion’s share of 40-man roster moves, more can be expected. When Carl Pavano declares free agency within the first couple of days of the World Series, he will be dropped. Some arbitration decisions could lead to more openings. And if Scott Baker and the Twins fail to each an agreement, that would result in another opening. ~~~ If you’re interested in some of the Twins prospects that may fill some of these spots, Seth Stohs has an essay in the TwinsCentric 2013 Offseason Handbook that list the top candidates likely to be rewarded a spot. It is shipping now at a 30% discount until the end of the World Series.

The Twins cleared eight players from their 40-man roster yesterday in moves that affected suspects, prospects and Matt Capps. Because there were actually forty-three players on the 40-man roster, the moves left five spots open which will be filled throughout the offseason by free agents and other new players as well as Twins prospects that the organization wants to protect. Of the eight, the biggest name was former closer Capps, who was acquired by the Twins by trade in 2012 and has signed two consecutive contracts with the Twins. The Twins had a $6 million option (with a $250,000 buyout) on Capps for next year, but he had been hurt for most of this last season, hurting his chances of making anywhere near that money on the free agent market. Capps release does suggest that the Twins aren’t currently talking with him about re-signing him yet again. They have a similar option on pitcher Scott Baker which they are also assuredly going to decline, but they did not do so yesterday, likely because they are in talks to re-sign him according to Terry Ryan. Of the other seven players released only one did not ever make it to the majors – relief prospect Carlos Gutierrez, who was claimed by the Chicago Cubs. Gutierrez was a first-round pick by the Twins in 2008, but stalled out in AAA and eventually underwent season-ending shoulder surgery this July. It is not clear when he’ll be able to pitch again. The cuts included five other pitchers: Esmerling Vasquez is a somewhat wild reliever who was converted to a starter midway through the year in Rochester. The 28-year-old had good success in that role but struggled with his control in a September promotion to the Twins. PJ Walters was a 27-year-old starter had spent time with the Cardinals and Blue Jays prior to this season. He had success in his initial few outings, but eventually was sidelined with a shoulder injury. He also struggled this September when he returned. Kyle Waldrop is also a first round pick by the Twins, but underwent shoulder surgery in 2008. He has since become a pitcher who lives and dies by getting ground balls. He appeared in 17 games with the Twins this season, all of them in relief. Jeff Manship bounced back from a injury-plagued 2011 to stay mostly healthy this year, but the 2.91 ERA he posted in Rochester didn’t translate to the majors. His threw relief in 12 games, posting a 7.89 ERA. Finally, Luis Perdomo joined the Twins last offseason from the Padres organization. He’s traditionally struggled with his control, but made progress in Rochester only to see that progress disappear in the majors. He appeared in 15 games, pitching seventeen innings and walking 12. The only batter trimmed was outfielder Matt Carson, who had been a bit of a surprise when he was called up to the majors in late August. The 31-year-old outfielder received 66 at-bats, hitting .211 with just one extra-base hit. While these represent moves represent the lion’s share of 40-man roster moves, more can be expected. When Carl Pavano declares free agency within the first couple of days of the World Series, he will be dropped. Some arbitration decisions could lead to more openings. And if Scott Baker and the Twins fail to each an agreement, that would result in another opening. ~~~ If you’re interested in some of the Twins prospects that may fill some of these spots, Seth Stohs has an essay in the TwinsCentric 2013 Offseason Handbook that list the top candidates likely to be rewarded a spot. It is shipping now at a 30% discount until the end of the World Series.

Just realized this thread is also going in the Minor League forum. I'm going to move it over there and then merge it with the other one.

Was he out of options next year? I'm a a little surprised by this, too.

I think the answer is "because they didn't think they would be able to give them playing time." That didn't turn out to be true, because Parmelee suffered that groin injury and then had to leave the team for a little while. It might have been fun to call up Arcia and Hicks, but I'd have trouble calling it a waste. Unless one of them walked on water and waived his hand to bring back the trees, it wasn't going to change the offseason plans. Neither was going to be slated to be a starting OFer next year. In fact, from the interview with Terry Ryan, it sounds a little like Arcia isn't a lock to start the season in Rochester.

Obviously, this isn't big news, but it does bring us one step closer to the inevitable re-signing of Matt Capps..... http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/175660561.html

For those who have purchased the Offseason Handbook, I want to ask about the part of the Terry Ryan interview that shocked me the most: that the 2nd biggest priority is to improve the bullpen. When I asked why, the reply was that the team can never have enough arms, but also seemed to be that they still believe in Dozier and Florimon. I gotta say, I was pretty surprised by this. That one thing I thought about later was that maybe he meant it in relation to picking up waiver claims and 6-year minor league free agents, more than shopping on the market for an established reliever. Did that shock anyone else?

I sensed the same feistiness. Loved it! Made me wish it had been a video interview. I got the feeling he was treating John as both someone who was challenging him, but also someone who was asking legitimate questions. FWIW, the feistiness was closer to jocularity than confrontation. It was a lively give-and-take, with the occasional friendly barb.

No, it's not. Or at least not when you include those players whose options are going to be declined. How one wants to evaluate how "deep" a market it is open to debate, but it seems to me the best way is by evaluating the dollars they're likely to draw. That would at least give a sense of whether the teams think this is a deep market. And what we're going to see is that this is the deepest market, demanding the most dollars, as there has been in several years. I wrote about this a few weeks ago. http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?1049-Deep-Starting-Pitching-Market-Is-A-Lucky-Break-For-Twins

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1113-Terry-Ryan-Twins-Will-Chase-Pretty-Darn-Good-Pitcher

In our TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook, we’re including a transcript from a 45-minute meeting "State of the Twins" interview with Terry Ryan. As you can imagine, an 8000-word interview covers a lot of topics, including: the strengths of the new coaching staff, Joe Mauer’s future at catcher, additional offseason priorities beyond starting pitching, how Twins approach waiver wire or minor league free agents, thoughts on the state of the Twins minor leagues, his evaluation of the Twins middle infield, whether Trevor Plouffe can stay at third base, how the Twins will fit Chris Parmelee into the lineup, and of course how the Twins will try to fix their starting rotation. One encouraging note, at least in my opinion, is that Ryan seems to be open to adding free agent pitchers who are a few cuts above Jason Marquis, who the Twins signed to a one-year, $3M. TWINSCENTRIC: As you look at the pitchers who are likely to become free agents or are scheduled to be free agents, do you think it’s a deep free agency class? TERRY RYAN: Thin. TWINSCENTRIC: You think it’s thin? TERRY RYAN: Sure. You tell me who you’re thinking about. I can’t comment on who is out there. There’s a few guys out there who are pretty darn good. TWINSCENTRIC: Are you likely to be chasing some players who are pretty darn good? TERRY RYAN: We better. TWINSCENTRIC: So you’re looking to add a top of the rotation, maybe not a #1 guy, but maybe a #2 guy or a top half of the rotation? TERRY RYAN: We’ll see. We’ll figure out how many years he’s looking for and how many dollars they want to get. TWINSCENTRIC: Are you willing to give multi-year deals to pitchers? TERRY RYAN: You aren’t going to get a pitcher unless you give a multi-year deal. So who qualifies as a “pretty darn good” pitcher? Despite Ryan’s characterization of the market as thin, there are no shortage of candidate that could be viewed as an asset to a rotation. Beyond ace Zach Greinke, the following will all likely get a contract in excess of $20 million dollars this offseason: Jake Peavy, Ryan Dempster, Dan Haren, Anibal Sanchez, Edwin Jackson, and Kyle Lohse. Another half dozen could get contracts in excess of $10 million: Hideki Kuroda, Brandon McCarthy, Hisashi Iwakuma, Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, Jeremy Guthrie and Shaun Marcum. That’s fourteen pitchers, most of whom would raise the eyebrows of even the most skeptical Twins fan. However, Ryan was also hesitant to commit to a payroll number and again emphasized that the Twins rotation woes won’t be solved solely through free agency. Does this mean the Twins may only have the funds to make one major signing and look to fill the other spots via other means? We likely won’t need to wait too long to find out. Ryan hinted that he plans to be aggressive with players that they think are going to be a good fit. That is consistent with the Twins approach last offseason, when players like Ryan Doumit and Jamey Carroll were signed even though there were still players in higher demand available. ~~~ After this last season, don't you deserve to enjoy the offseason? The full interview (as well as profiles of all the above pitchers) will be available in the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook, which comes out tomorrow. You can still get it at its presale discount price through the World Series. And if you’re still on the fence, you can download a sample here.

In our TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook, we’re including a transcript from a 45-minute meeting "State of the Twins" interview with Terry Ryan. As you can imagine, an 8000-word interview covers a lot of topics, including: the strengths of the new coaching staff, Joe Mauer’s future at catcher, additional offseason priorities beyond starting pitching, how Twins approach waiver wire or minor league free agents, thoughts on the state of the Twins minor leagues, his evaluation of the Twins middle infield, whether Trevor Plouffe can stay at third base, how the Twins will fit Chris Parmelee into the lineup, and of course how the Twins will try to fix their starting rotation. One encouraging note, at least in my opinion, is that Ryan seems to be open to adding free agent pitchers who are a few cuts above Jason Marquis, who the Twins signed to a one-year, $3M. TWINSCENTRIC: As you look at the pitchers who are likely to become free agents or are scheduled to be free agents, do you think it’s a deep free agency class? TERRY RYAN: Thin. TWINSCENTRIC: You think it’s thin? TERRY RYAN: Sure. You tell me who you’re thinking about. I can’t comment on who is out there. There’s a few guys out there who are pretty darn good. TWINSCENTRIC: Are you likely to be chasing some players who are pretty darn good? TERRY RYAN: We better. TWINSCENTRIC: So you’re looking to add a top of the rotation, maybe not a #1 guy, but maybe a #2 guy or a top half of the rotation? TERRY RYAN: We’ll see. We’ll figure out how many years he’s looking for and how many dollars they want to get. TWINSCENTRIC: Are you willing to give multi-year deals to pitchers? TERRY RYAN: You aren’t going to get a pitcher unless you give a multi-year deal. So who qualifies as a “pretty darn good” pitcher? Despite Ryan’s characterization of the market as thin, there are no shortage of candidate that could be viewed as an asset to a rotation. Beyond ace Zach Greinke, the following will all likely get a contract in excess of $20 million dollars this offseason: Jake Peavy, Ryan Dempster, Dan Haren, Anibal Sanchez, Edwin Jackson, and Kyle Lohse. Another half dozen could get contracts in excess of $10 million: Hideki Kuroda, Brandon McCarthy, Hisashi Iwakuma, Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, Jeremy Guthrie and Shaun Marcum. That’s fourteen pitchers, most of whom would raise the eyebrows of even the most skeptical Twins fan. However, Ryan was also hesitant to commit to a payroll number and again emphasized that the Twins rotation woes won’t be solved solely through free agency. Does this mean the Twins may only have the funds to make one major signing and look to fill the other spots via other means? We likely won’t need to wait too long to find out. Ryan hinted that he plans to be aggressive with players that they think are going to be a good fit. That is consistent with the Twins approach last offseason, when players like Ryan Doumit and Jamey Carroll were signed even though there were still players in higher demand available. ~~~ After this last season, don't you deserve to enjoy the offseason? The full interview (as well as profiles of all the above pitchers) will be available in the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook, which comes out tomorrow. You can still get it at its presale discount price through the World Series. And if you’re still on the fence, you can download a sample here.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1112-Twins-Hire-Cuellar-Bruanansky-Steinbach-Set-Coaching-Roles