John Bonnes

Download attachment: Morneau_Justin_Smiling_US_600.jpg Aaron and John talk about Justin Morneau going unclaimed on waivers, the rotation being heavy on mediocrity for 2014, getting blocked by a documentary film crew, free agent pitching options for the offseason, how to be a fan by way of Andrew Albers, adventures in dog-sitting, drinking vs. not drinking, winning bets on Nick Blackburn, and Doug Mientkiewicz brawling. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Download attachment: kyle-gibson-futures-games.jpg In this week's Minnesota Twins podcast, Aaron and John talk about expectations for Kyle Gibson's promotion, where Aaron Hicks rehab stint will take him, Wilkin Ramirez' setback from a concussion, Trevor Plouffe's trade value, Antoan Richardson's eye-popping OBP, Oswald Arcia's quiet success, trade speculation, the upcoming zombie apocalypse and answer mailbag questions. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Two huge trades went through yesterday and both of them impact the Twins to some degree. Yankees Acquire Ichiro Suzuki Yesterday the Yankees acquired Ichiro Suzuki (and cash) for little more than a lesser prospect and a waiver wire pickup. It had been reported that they had explored trades for both Denard Span and Shane Victorino of the Phillies, so this gives the Twins one less suitor to court. But it doesn’t properly reflect the market. Download attachment: Ichiro07232012.jpg In nearly all respects except name recognition, Denard Span is worth quite a bit more than Ichiro to a major league team. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Ichiro is 38, comes with a price tag over $6M for this year, is a free agent at the end of the year, and his OBP is just .288. (For reference, Tsuyoshi Nishioka’s OBP last year was just 10 points lower.) Span is 28, will cost the team $1M, is under contract for two more years (plus a 3rd year team option) and has an OBP of .340. Finally, Ichiro had trade veto rights, so he was only going to go where he WANTED to go. This was a salary dump, and possibly a favor to Ichiro, which is very different than a Span trade would be. But it does mean one less team is interested in Span, taken by a player we didn’t really know is on the market. That doesn’t mean that the market has dried up. As far as lead-off hitters go, there are still plenty of options: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Baltimore and the Dodgers could all be labeled “borderline desperate” for a high OBP player. So could the Nationals, who incidentally approached the Twins about Span last year. The more I look at it, the more I believe that some team is going to talk themselves into Span at the deadline. He’s a better fit for more teams than has generally been acknowledged. Tigers Acquire Anibal Sanchez When the Marlins, who had seemingly pushed all their chips into the middle of the table this offseason, announced they were looking to sell off key players, it was bad news for the Twins. The Marlins have plenty to offer teams looking to get better. That includes right-handed pitcher Anibal Sanchez, who is becoming a free agent at the end of the year and positioned to do even better than Francisco Liriano on the free agent market. He was traded yesterday to the Detroit Tigers along with Omar Infante, a starting second baseman. In return, the Tigers built a package around starting pitcher Jacob Turner, who entered the season as an “A” prospect, though he’s struggled a bit in AAA and the majors this year. They added a couple of “C” prospects too. Meanwhile, there were multiple reports that the Cubs had an agreemenent to trade Ryan Dempster to the Braves for a package that include Randall Delgado, another “A” starting pitching prospect who has struggled a bit this year in the majors. This suggests that right now, eight days before the deadline, aggressive (or risk-adverse) teams are willing to overpay with borderline “A” pitching prospects for an exceptional pitcher. That doesn’t mean the Twins have received that kind of an offer. Dempster was clearly valued higher than Liriano. Sanchez is at least comparable, and certainly has been more consistent. (Also, since the Tigers are in the Twins division it was unlikely they would want to trade the Twins a prospect that will face them for years to come.) There are still a few hands to play before we find out where Liriano ranks in the trade market. Lots of additional names could hit the market - or they could not. The Phillies are negotiating with Cole Hamels. Zach Greinke and Matt Garza both suddenly have injury concerns. Either way, there are still plenty of teams interested in Liriano. But so far, the market seems to be dictating that the market for moving a pitcher like Liriano is strong. We’ll see in the next week whether it gets better or worse. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Willingham.jpg Oddly, a lot of sabrmetric geeks I know don’t like the Win Probability Added (WPA) statistic. I don’t want to speak for them as to why, but the comment I hear that drives me the craziest is something like “All you have to do is see that Erik Komatsu was more valuable then Ben Revere to understand that it is worthless.” It drive me crazy because 15 years ago, I would hear the same question from baseball traditionalists when I’d suggest that an on-base machine like Bobby Abreu was more valuable than a guy with 20 more RBI. And I would say “Yes, that’s exactly what that means.” And I felt confident because: wins for a team correlates closely with run differential and the runs a team scores mirrors closely their On-base Plus Slugging (OPS) and a team’s OPS built is on their players’ OPS and Bobby Abreu has a crazy good OPS.And they would say, “That’s nice that you have all those correlations and stuff, but Abreu only had 79 RBI last year!” They might agree with the method, but couldn’t accept the results. To me, that’s just being closed minded. Similarly, I believe in the method of computing WPA. Here’s how it works: Analyzing dozens of years of baseball, you compute every game situation and how often a team in that situation won or lost the game. So, for instance, a home team that has runners on the corners and one out and is down by a run may have won games 55% of the time. Give the batter and the pitcher credit for how much they change those probabilities. So if the batter bounces into a double play, and the percent chance drops to 30%, then the batter loses .25 points and the pitcher gains .25 points. Do this for every play of every game throughout the year. It’s not perfect – it doesn’t take into account fielding. If also isn’t especially predictive. And a player who plays a lot has plenty of opportunities for negative scores as well as positive scores. However, it also is not dependent on other players; the player who is on third isn’t affected by the batter who grounds into the double play. And it rewards players who make big hits – hits that change the course of the game. Finally, if you look at the players with the highest and lowest WPA at the end of the game, it is almost never a surprise. It lines up with who you, as a fan, thought the heroes and goats of the game were. In fact, I have rarely heard anyone criticize the method. It’s fairly simple to understand and, though it means handling a lot of data, the logic is straight-forward and elegant. But the results…that’s a different story. And that will be the case when you see the Twins WPA this year. Today we’ll start with the hitters and get to the pitchers next time: Download attachment: WPA Hitters.jpg I suspect few people have trouble with the top two names on the list. Willingham not only had an enormous positive impact in games amongst Twins, his is one of the highest in the majors. It is the 2nd highest, right now, in the American League, sandwiched between Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera. (Actually, Cabrera is fourth. Edwin Encarnacion is in 3rd, .05 points above Cabrera. And fifth in the AL belongs to the next name on that list – Joe Mauer. He’s currently above Prince Fielder but a few percentage points. For all the talk about how “clutch” Mauer might not be and how many double-plays he grounds into, Mauer has had an enormous positive impact on the Twins this year. Statistically, it’s not debatable. On the other hand, I suspect some folks are going to have trouble accepting that Ryan Doumit and Ben Revere have, offensively at least, cost the Twins several wins. Statistically, both have been fairly strong, but overall, they’ve had a lot more negative impacts on games than positive impacts so far this year. Because of that, they rank lower than subs that aren’t even with the team any more like …. well, Erik Komatsu. That doesn’t mean the statistic is worthless. It just means Revere (and Doumit) didn’t have the offensive impact that we would have like to have seen. Of this, I’m confident. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Dempster_Ryan_600-321.jpg One of the more interesting times in every offseason is when the rhetoric goes away and the choices become, often painfully, clear. Rock, meet Hard Place. The Hard Place is where the Twins are: fronting a rotation with Scott Diamond next year. Diamond, by Twins general manager Terry Ryan’s own analysis, is a #3 starter. He’s clearly scouring the winter meetings for upgrades. But like Charlie Brown at Halloween, all he’s getting is a whole lot of Rock. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Here are the available pitchers who could be considered an upgrade over Scott Diamond. (FYI – These guys are all profiled in the TwinsCentric ffseason Handbook.) Tell me which one you think the Twins should go after. Zack Greinke – Will likely get a nine-figure deal over at least six years.Jake Peavy – Re-signed with the White Sox for 2 years at $29M with a vesting option for a 3rd year.Hiroki Kuroda – Re-signed with the Yankees for 1-year/$15M.Dan Haren – Available. He’s getting “getting interest from lotsa East-coast clubs.”James Shields – Only available via trade, and probably not to the Twins after they traded away Denard Span.Edwin Jackson – Available. Most recently rumored to be courted by the Angels.Anibal Sanchez – Reportedly called a 4-year/$48 million offer from the Tigers a few weeks ago “insulting.” Says he is seeking a 6-year/$90M offer.RA Dickey – Available via trade from the Mets. The price for him is “very high.”Brandon McCarthy – Still available. However, several teams have expressed an interest in him including “the Red Sox, the White Sox, the Cubs, the Royals, the Diamondbacks and the Twins – and the Angels and Rangers are also expected to join in.”Ryan Dempster – The 35-year-old has been linked with the Twins, Diamondbacks and Brewers and is searching for a 3-year deal, likely for around $13M per year.Kyle Lohse – Represented by Scott Boras. ‘Nuff said. Each of these guys (with the possible exception of Haren or maybe McCarthy) is pushing for (and probably likely to get) $13-$15M per year. Also, each is looking for a deal at least one year longer than any fiscally sane club would want to give them. Thus, this is the “interesting” time, or, if you prefer, “hellish.” It’s looking more and more like teams are going to need to pay to play. We can look at a 5-year/$65M deal for Jackson or a 3-year/$33 million deal for McCarthy and say that’s “crazy,” and we’re probably right. But we can’t do that and then rip Ryan for not upgrading the rotation, or settling for names like Brett Myers, Kevin Correia, Joe Blanton or John Lannan. This is the way free agency works. The vast majority are overpaid. It is the nature of the system. When a player signs with the one team that offers him the most money, instead of the 29 that think that much money is too much, odds are that is too much. We can rip the Twins for putting themselves into this position – this is why minor league development is so important – but that ship has sailed. If we want to focus on the problem at hand, the choices seem to be overpay or settle. Rock or Hard Place. Which way are you going to go? Click here to view the article

The Minnesota Twins have announced they have traded Justin Morneau to the Pittsburgh Pirates for outfielder Alex Presley and a player to be named later who was later identified as reliever Duke Welker. Download attachment: Morneau_Justin_Happy_US_720.jpg Morneau, who was drafted by the Twins in 1999, moved into 3rd place on the Twins all-time home run list just last night when he passed Tony Oliva with his 221st career blast.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] It also provided the deciding run in a 3-2 win over the Texas Rangers. If he does not return to the Twins, he will also rank high on the Twins leaderboard, including slugging percentage (4th - .485), RBI (5th - 860) and extra-base hits (5th - 526). He will almost certainly become a member of the Twins Hall of Fame when he is eligible. Morneau had been the subject of trade rumors for months as he was becoming a free agent at the end of the year and had the second highest salary on the non-contending ballclub. The Pirates have agreed as part of the trade to pay the approximate $2.3M he will still make this year. The initial player who was announced was Alex Presley, a 27-year-old outfielder who has bounced between AAA and the Pirates for the last four years. During that time, he's hit .261 with a .718 OPS over 699 plate appearances while mostly playing corner outfield spots. He's had considerably more success in AAA, where he posted an 837 OPS while playing mostly in centerfield. As a left-handed hitter, he profiles as a player similar to, albeit a slight upgrade to, Clete Thomas. Later, the second player, Duke Welker, was announced. Welker is also 27 years old and serves as the closer for the Pirates AAA affiliate. This year he struck out 64 batters in 61 innings with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.279 WHIP. He profiles as a serviceable right-handed reliever. Click here to view the article

In today's 6-3 loss to the Tampa Rays, the Twins pitchers didn't have a great day. Starting was Ricky Nolasco, whose prefix is already slowly turning from "Mr." into "Most Expensive Free Agent the Twins Ever Signed." (MEFATES?) Anyway, Mr. Nolasco threw two scoreless innings, but five of the seven opposing batters hit the ball hard. Fortunately, the last of those hard hits was right at first baseman Chris Colabello who turned a nifty double-play. I'm not saying there should be any concern. It's March 2nd. I'm just saying there is clearly work to do. The blast that hurt the most was given up by Anthony Swarzak to Evan Longoria. Longoria does stuff like that against all kinds of pitchers and nobody expects Swarzak to be immune. But Swarzak also gave up three other hits to guys not named Longoria, albeit all of them pretty good hitters. Swarzak isn't on anyone's list of concerns this year, due to some very effective pitching last year. But it's not like his strikeout rate spiked or a walk rate plummeted last year. He just gave up a lot fewer home runs and hits. Today, that formula didn't seem as comforting as yesterday. We also got to see the recently acquired left-hander Brooks Raley, who induced three efficient ground balls in his first inning and then watched several pitches get tattooed to left field in his second inning. Finally, we got to see top pitching prospect Alex Meyer's 95+ mph fastball up close. Unfortunately, the Rays batters were seeing it too. He gave up a run in each inning and four hits total, though he wasn't helped by his defense in the eighth inning. One could draw a comparison from this game to last year's pitching woes and a slew of other memorable six-run games, but that would be a little silly. This was just an early spring training game featuring a couple of big leaguers and a lot of minor leaguers and nobody should feel too bad about losing to the Rays in any case. So instead, let's call it a reminder that the Twins this year are likely going to go as far as their pitching will take them. To their credit, they showed they understood this with their offseason moves. But those moves still need to work. Twins Takes There was an interesting subplot in today's game. Versus Tampa Bay's young right-handed phenom Alex Cobb, manager Ron Gardenhire started Jason Kubel, Oswaldo Arcia and Chris Parmelee. The three of them are all left-handed corner outfield/designated hitters, and there is a decent chance that only two of them come north with the team. Kubel, who most assume will be the team's primary designated hitter, started in left field. He went 0-3, though he had some hard hits. Batting as the designated hitter was Chris Parmelee, who homered yesterday. He also hit fifth, one spot in front of Oswaldo Arcia, which struck me as a little odd, seeing as I've assumed Arcia would make the team over Parmelee. Parmelee singled again today. Arcia, who played right field, hit a home run in the fifth inning. We've talked a lot about how "options" may make forecasting a bullpen a little tricky, but I wonder if they might not have an impact here, too. Parmelee is out of options. Arcia is not. And Kubel was awfully fragile last year. If the Twins believe Parmelee is ready to turn the corner, it might make the most sense long-term to go north with Kubel and Parmelee. They could keep Arcia in reserve at Rochester for a couple months in case Kubel goes down or Parmelee flails. Keep an eye on how each is used. Click here to view the article

by Nick Nelson Download attachment: GameDay Scorecard.jpg If you're not familiar with the Twins' Official $1 Scorecard, you should be. It's sold at the program stands near the entrances to Target Field, and it's only one buck. How many things can you buy at the ballgame for a dollar? Aside from providing the necessary tools for a scorekeeper to do his/her thing, the scorecard also includes content that changes for each series. Even if Nick Nelson wasn't the guy supplying that content this year, I'd highly recommend picking up a copy each time you make it out to the park. It may be the best value at Target Field. Below you'll find an excerpt from the Twins' side of the next coming scorecard, which will be available during the Orioles series when action resumes after the All-Star break. ~~~ Notable Trade Deadlines for the Twins With the non-waiver trade deadline just a couple short weeks away, here’s a look at some memorable past deadlines during the Ron Gardenhire era: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] 2003: Twins trade OF Bobby Kielty to Blue Jays for OF Shannon Stewart and SP Dave Gassner. The Twins carried an eight-game losing streak into the All-Star Game, pushing them 7.5 games out in a division they’d been on top of for much of the first half. Needing an offensive spark, they acquired Stewart during the break and installed him as their leadoff man. They never looked back, going 46-23 the rest of the way as Stewart hit .322/.384/.470 and even picked up a few MVP votes. 2004: Twins trade 1B Doug Mientkiewicz to Red Sox, receive SP Justin Jones in four-team swap. This move was more about clearing space at first base for Justin Morneau than loading up for the stretch run. It worked out well for both sides – Mientkiewicz won a World Series that year in Boston, while Morneau was an MVP two years later. 2005: Twins acquire 2B Bret Boone from Mariners. Remember Bret Boone? The offense-starved Twins hoped to catch lightning in a bottle by snagging the former star slugger, but he proved to have nothing left in the tank. Boone batted .170 in 13 games for the Twins and was done as a big-leaguer after that. 2007: Twins trade 2B Luis Castillo to Mets for OF Dustin Martin and C Drew Butera. In one of the only “sell” moves that the Twins have made in the past 10 years, they unloaded the veteran Castillo and his salary for a pair of prospects. The purpose was to compete while making room for Alexi Casilla, but the Twins didn’t make the postseason that year. 2009: Twins trade SS Tyler Ladendorf to Athletics for SS Orlando Cabrera. Cabrera flashed impressive pop after coming over on July 31, hitting five homers down the stretch including a key blast in the Twins’ AL Central tiebreaker victory over the Tigers. 2010: Twins trade C Wilson Ramos to Nationals for RP Matt Capps Seeking to shore up the closer position, the Twins dealt away their top catching prospect for the experienced right-hander. Capps was very effective the rest of the year, though he’s had some ups and downs over the rest of his tenure in Minnesota. ~~~ You can find more, including previews of each team for just $1 just inside any gate at Target Field or at any gift table. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: WIRED_Story.jpg There is no doubt that the internet changes how we consume sports, both positively and negatively. But does it also change the way we think? In the October 2013 issue of Wired, Clive Thompson examines the benefits of blogging and online posting for the writers, the readers and the world. Essentially, he argues that the deluge of information to which we are exposed everyday is changing how we think for the better. And it is a deluge:[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Thompson isn’t delusional about the quality of most of that content: Thompson’s first point is that focusing only on the content is a mistake. The more important effect is that people are writing, instead of just reading. And writing changes how we learn and think, usually for the better. Because when you write about something, especially publicly, you pay a lot more attention. He cites studies where students change the way they learn when they know they must present their knowledge to an audience, even if the audience is small. Thompson’s second point is that the impact is further multiplied when it is exposed to a community who can take the ideas and run with them. Leaps forward in knowledge often happen simultaneously and independently. This implies that those breakthroughs aren’t just due to the individuals. They’re building on previous work; the time is ripe for a breakthrough. That’s why there are scientific research journals and standards for citing each others work. They were attempts at a global network before there was the internet. The internet drives that collaboration to a whole new level. As an example, Thompson tells the story of Ory Okolloh, a blogger who wrote about Kenya during the 2007 upheaval over elections. Trying to track all the incidents was overwhelming. She openly asked for a way readers could submit them directly to Google maps. One of her readers took that request to a friend who was a developer and they quickly cobbled a tool. When Okolloh started her blog about Kenyan politics, she wasn’t trying to develop an indispensable worldwide aid tool. She just wanted to study Kenyan politics. But her interest turned into a blog which turned into community which turned into a network. Big things can happen, both internally and externally, when one graduates from reader to writer. ~~~ If you would like to contribute to some of the discussions on TwinsDaily, you might want to start by registering. You’ll then be able to post comments to our stories, or discuss the latest Twins rumors in our forums. You even get your own Twins blog. If you want to learn more about this topic, follow the link to the Wired story at the top of this article. You can also check out Clive Thompson’s new book Smarter Than You Think, a study on how technology is making us smarter. The Wired story is an excerpt from this book. Click here to view the article

~ Sponsored by Ticket King ~ There are lots of good reasons to go to any number of the Twins games versus the A’s this year, but … I mean, c’mon …. there is really only one game to go to. Monday is the home opener. You know where you need to be. The Long Winter Download attachment: BkZfFbPCcAAZ27W.jpg We’ll start with the obvious – because you’ve been waiting for six months to watch a live baseball game. Actually, odds are that you’ve been waiting a lot longer than that, seeing as the Twins attendance in September was pretty dismal. The field is green, the weather is going to be relatively warm, it’s been a brutal winter and there are trees back in Target Field. Correia’s Return It would be nice if it featured one of the free agent pitchers the Twins signed, but instead it’s going to feature last year’s ace, Kevin Correia, who already had a roller-coaster of a game in his first start. He gave up only three runs over six innings, but when he threw his last pitch, the Twins were down 3-2 and had about a 30% chance to win the game. However, in the top of the seventh, the Twins scored three runs giving them an 80% chance to win and get Correia the “W” without throwing another pitch. Download attachment: Correia_FanGraphs.jpg It all evened out for Correia, much to Twins fans chagrin. Glen Perkins blew the save, allowing the White Sox to tie the game in the ninth and so Correia got a “no decision.” Then Sam Deduno and Kurt Suzuki teamed up to lose the game in the 11th on a wild pitch. You can see the FanGraphs.com chart that shows the Twins/White Sox chances of winning that game to the right. Tough Road Download attachment: Kazmir vs.jpg The Twins should have their hands full this series. The A’s won 96 games last year, 94 the year before, won the AL West both of those years and took six of seven versus the Twins last year. For the opener, the A’s will have Scott Kazmir take the hill, who they signed this offseason to replace Bartolo Colon. Kazmir spent last year torturing the Twins when we was with the Cleveland Indians. He started five games against the Twins, threw 31 innings and had just a 1.45 ERA in those games. In fact, one could make a case that Kazmir should send the Twins a thank you note for the 2-year, $22 million contract he got. Without those games against the Twins, his overall would’ve climbed from 4.04 to 4.67. It’s Not Too Late Download attachment: TK_Opening_Day.jpg There are still tickets available for the home opener, and they won’t break the bank – I currently see some for as low as $14 apiece. Plus, it’s not like you need to take even a half day off; the game is at 3:00 so just get permission to blow out of there a little early. And if it is too late – as in, you are reading this on Monday night, take a look at the afternoon games later this week. The second and third games of the year always have incredible bargains for seats, and Wednesday it’s hitting 70 degrees for the first time this year. All you have to do is find a way to get out there by noon. (Oh, and it’s dollar dog day, too.) ~~~ Ticket King has all kinds of seats available for this matchup. You can impress an important client in the Champions Club, or give your kids a memory, even if it's from the the upper deck. Plus, if you use the promo code DAILY DOUBLE, you’ll be supporting Twins Daily and get 10% off. Whatever your needs, your local ticket supplier, Ticket King, can help. Click here to view the article

~~~ sponsored by Ticket King ~~~ Download attachment: Puig_Yasiel_HighFive_US_720.jpg The Dodgers have been to Target Field before; just three years ago the Twins (despite a dismal year) took two of three, serving as dismal hosts. With Minnesota in the middle of a week-long rainstorm, the Dodgers might be back quite a bit sooner. There is no point in avoiding it: the story for this series is the weather, so let’s break it down…. The Possible Makeup Dates There are three dates this year that the Dodgers and Twins both have open and they’re all on Mondays: May 19 – The Twins will be wrapping up a homestand against Boston and Seattle and the Dodgers will be leaving Arizona and be on their way to New York City to play the Mets on the 20th. Also, both teams (at least right now) have an off day earlier that week, so it wouldn’t be such a hardship. This date seems like it would work best. July 28 – The Twins will be concluding a nine-game homestand and the Dodger will be finishing a nine-game road trip. This one doesn’t work out quite as well because the Dodgers would need to fly from San Francisco on Sunday and back home on Tuesday, but it’ll work. August 25 – The Twins will be ending a 10-game homestand against AL Central teams and the Dodgers be wrapping up their own homestand too. Again – this game isn’t exactly on the Dodgers flight path. They would leave LA, fly to Minneapolis, play a game and then go back to Phoenix to face the Diamondbacks. Actually, “a game” might be optimistic. If two games are cancelled, I suppose one of these days could host a doubleheader. I also suppose this presents a unique opportunity for those people who are buying Twins tickets on the open market (such as at TicketKingOnline.com). All of these dates generally have a lot nicer weather then you’ll see right now. Why not buy some seats super cheap and wait to see which game you get? I can think of three significant risks to that plan: 1) The game might be played as scheduled in really miserable conditions. 2) The game might be part of a doubleheader on Thursday, when there is a slightly lesser chance of rain. 3) The rescheduled game could be on a Monday afternoon, which could be good or bad depending on your work schedule. An Unbelievable Story Oh yeah, you might want to know a thing or two about the Dodgers. First: Yasiel Puig. Puig’s stats this year aren’t quite as gaudy as last year, when he was called up as a 22-year-old, hit .319 with 19 home runs and 11 stolen bases, finished second in Rookie of the Year voting, garnered votes for the National League MVP and led the Dodgers from last to first in the NL West over the last 100+ games of the season. His was easily the most exciting story in baseball last year. And yet his story may have already been topped. Recently, the story of his escape from Cuba was detailed in Los Angeles Magazine by Jesse Katz. A quick summary: drug lords, Cuban informants, double-crossing HVAC contractors, threats with machetes, lawsuits, chicken blood and a dead boat captain. I dare you not to click the link. Anyway, you’ll find him in right field, so you might want to shoot for something in Section 103, where I see $15 tickets. (Which is coincidentally in Target Field’s craft beer corner. Just saying.) No matter how his story ends, it might be able to tell your grandkids someday that “you saw him when….” Pitching Matchups Your guess is as good as mine as to how the pitching matchups will look if there’s another rainout. Kyle Gibson is up next and will likely get a chance to bounce back after his first rough outing and after having a couple of extra days of rest. Mike Pelfrey should pitch the second game, but if either of those first two games are cancelled, might the Twins just stick with Ricky Nolasco on Thursday and skip one of Pelfrey’s starts? The Dodgers rotation is bringing some star power, as they are wont to do. They’ll start with Zach Greinke, who is 0-3 with a 5.63 ERA lifetime in Target Field. Then comes Dan Haren, who is sporting a 3-0 record and a 2.03 ERA so far. If they get all three games in we’ll see Josh Beckett, who has recovered from a thumb injury and has a 2.45 ERA in four starts. ~~~ Obviously, this is a chance for some bargains, especially considering the drawing power of the Dodgers. There are $4 tickets for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. If you’re a Dodgers fan, the seats around their dugout are a little more scarce, but I see a pair right next to the dugout for each game for $55-$62. That becomes an even better deal if you use the promo code DAILYDOUBLE, which will get you 10% off and supports Twins Daily. Whatever your needs, your local ticket supplier, Ticket King, can help. ~~~ Click here to view the article

In Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance, Robert M Pirsig dwells on a topic about which we often argue at Twins Daily: Truth. (*1) Given a finite amount of data – and there is always only a finite amount of data – the human imagination is capable of creating an infinite number of explanations for what that data shows. But ultimately, one strikes us as The Truth. It can feel like an epiphany, an absolute. But it’s really just the prettiest of the explanations of which we can conceive. Download attachment: Ryan_Terry_Landscape.jpg This is true even for scientific facts, like gravity (*2). It's even more true when there is less observable data, like say, watching the moves of your favorite baseball team's front office. We can speculate from the outside, but odds are the truths we think we've found are the truths that appeal to us and are likely to change. My experience is that even when the people involved tell you The Truth, it's of limited value. They likely don't want to tell you the whole truth. It may even be that they don't understand it themselves. At the press conference where the Twins introduced Ricky Nolasco, Terry Ryan was asked about whether the Twins philosophy is changing towards free agency. He replied that he didn't think so (*3), that they had always said that they would utilize free agency when it was appropriate, and this was certainly appropriate. He implied the difference was that they now had the resources. That's a fine explanation, one that certainly can pass as The Truth for a limited set of facts. But there are other facts it doesn't explain. And the top one is that the Twins were in the exact same situation last year, and risked just $15 million on two pitchers, instead of the $73 million (and maybe more, soon) that they have already spent this year. In fact, last year, they under-spent their budget by $20 million. This additional data point can also be explained an infinite number of ways. For instance, 1) Maybe an extra year of losing added more urgency. 2) Maybe last year the increase in prices surprised the Twins. 3) Maybe Ryan just wasn't accustomed to having money to spend. 4) Maybe they just like Nolasco and Phil Hughes more than any pitchers last year. 5) Maybe someone new in the front office gained influence and convinced the organization to spend the money. 6) Maybe someone above Terry Ryan in the Twins hierarchy convinced him to spend the money. Or maybe the philosophy changed. Whichever truth you choose depends on which additional events you choose to include, and which explanation you find most appealing. (*1)Actually, Robert M. Persig dwells on a lot of things, and they’re all wrapped inside an intriguing and somewhat gut-wrenching story that I should really re-read. And which you should too. It’s the offseason. Trust me on this one. (*2)You might have trouble, even in the Twins Daily forums, arguing against gravity. But before Isaac Newton, people noticed that stuff tended to fall to earth. The accepted Truth was that objects had an “earthly nature” that made them return to earth. It wasn’t until Newton came along and started talking about the other heavenly bodies and how they were holding other objects in orbit, and creating formulas for how quickly things fell to earth, that the idea of gravity sunk in. For the record, those previous “nature” ideas weren’t proposed by some dummy. This was Aristotlian (as in Aristotle) Physics. It was the truth for nearly two thousand years because it made sense to everyone. We accept gravity because it made even more sense once we started realizing the earth wasn’t the center of the universe. And we might well throw it aside – and Albert Einstein already did as part of general relativity. Which, by the way, has been modified several times by various theories. Einstein doesn't have all matter attracting other matter. Rather, matter curves spacetime, bending objects in motion towards itself. And with that insufficient teaser, I and my one trimester of physics are disentangling ourselves from this explanation. Instead, I choose to focus on this: we are talking about something that most would consider scientific fact, and yet every few hundred years, it’s modified as we recognize a different explanation as "truth" for why that apple falls on your head. They all explain the apple. But the one we accept at different times extends from additional facts and observations and is eventually adopted as the cleanest explanation. If scientific fact is that malleable, how absolute is any truth? (*3) The question was asked by Wally Langfellow of Minnesota Score magazine. Here was Ryan's entire reply: “No, I don’t think so Wally. This isn’t a change in philosophy. We’ve always said, if we need to do something. Now we have the resources to do it; there’s no doubt. If we were still in the Metrodome, this probably wouldn’t happen. But we’re in Target Field. We’ve got more revenue and resources, certainly. This is a nice opportunity. We need pitching. We went out and got it. As people recall, we tried to retain [Johan] Santana or retain Torii Hunter. To some extent, we just didn’t have the wherewithal. We would not hesitate to jump into free agency. I don’t think it’s the greatest path, because it is risky. We all know that. Free agency is not the answer. It’s a help and a supplement to a roster. But if you’re relying on free agency year-in and year-out, it’s not gonna work. Now we’re in a situation where we need help. We need immediate help. And this is the reason Ricky is sitting here. But I don’t see this as a big change. Yeah, this is a nice contract for any player. But we’ve given out contracts of sizable worth and that lad over there on that poster [Ryan points to a picture of Joe Mauer] is a good example. He’s making a lot of money. We’re not afraid to do it, provided we get the right fit.” Click here to view the article

Download attachment: TNP-2012-research-box-journal-image.jpg Thursday night, which is an off night for the Twins, can still be full of baseball. At 7PM at the Barnes and Noble in Har Mar Mall, there will be a book signing of Short But Wondrous Summers: Baseball In The North Star State by several of the writers who contributed, including myself. The book, all by itself, is a rare opportunity. It is only produced for those cities which host a SABR convention, which happened this past June. As part of that, SABR recruits members to contribute stories, history and research surrounding the region that hosts it. It's not an exaggeration to say that a compilation of Minnesota baseball information like this is something that happens once in a generation. Whatever your baseball library looks like, it will be considerably upgraded with the inclusion of Short But Wondrous Summers. (If you can't make it Thursday night, you can also order the book or just learn more about it here.) Beyond that, several of the authors of the book will be there to give a short talk about the chapter that they wrote. There will also be a chance to ask questions. Finally, there will be a quick book signing, too. If you can make it, please make sure to introduce yourself. I'd love to talk about Twins Daily, or the Twins, or Gleeman and the Geek, or just about anything else. The good lord willing, maybe we can even grab a beer afterwards. I'll see you there. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: 343_hammond.jpg John and Aaron talk about the Twins signing Rafael Perez, which arms will be healthy, stuffing seven relievers into two bullpen spots, how much a person is allowed to like Brian Dozier, ornery insomnia, casting CSI:GATG, why Joe Benson should be left-handed, unprofessional bathroom breaks, Liam Hendriks vs. Kyle Gibson, snowshoes and the Vinland Center's "winter walkabout" charity, and the importance of spring training. the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Episode 24: Zumaya and Arbitration Aaron and John are joined by special guest Nick Nelson and talk about the Joel Zumaya signing, Glen Perkins, Alexi Casilla, Francisco Liriano, and the arbitration process, Roy Oswalt rumors, Delmon Young's contract with the Tigers, Victor Martinez's injury, and looking back at the top Twins prospects of 2011. Direct download: Ep_24_Zumaya__Arbitration.mp3 RSS: http://gleemangeek.libsyn.com/rss iTunes: http://itunes.apple....eek/id457946327 [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Download attachment: ps.eogeusbt.170x170-75.jpg Click here to view the article

648 days ago, TwinsDaily was launched. Today seems an appropriate (and belated) time to thank so many of you who contribute to the site. So please join me in thanking our…. Download attachment: turkey-baseball-11658716.jpg Moderators Our moderators have tracked 8276 threads since we launched less than two years ago, performing what I consider the most demanding and least rewarding job on the site. If you appreciate the forums as a place to discuss Twins news, please let them know, Without them, I assure you the forums would have disappeared months ago: glunn, snepp, Riverbrian, ashburyjohn, USAFChief, ChiTownTwinsFan Writers Of the 2182 stories that have appeared on TwinsDaily, over 1/3 were not written by Nick, Seth, Parker, Brock or I. Instead, they’ve been contributed by members of the community. This includes: Beat Writers Christopher Fee (@CJFee) Andrew Walter (@MNfanfromafar) Jim Crikket/SD Buhr (@JimCrikket) Minor League Reports and Draft Coverage Cody Christie (@NoDakTwinsFan) Jeremy Nygaard (@JeremyNygaard) Bloggers With At Least 10 Stories Brad Swanson (@bridman77) AJ Pettersen (@apettersen1) Thrylos (@thrylos98) PeanutsFromHeaven (@HeavenlyPeanuts) Mr. Horrorpants (@mrhorrorpants) Bwille (@BeeWill15) I could to on and on; there have been 62 other people who have published stories on Twins Daily. So please reach out to your favorites to show your appreciation, and use the links to follow them on Twitter. Editor A lot of those writers have been promoted because Kevin volunteers to comb through our blogs daily and help us identify stories that are worth promoting as well as edit them. Before that, our ability to promote stories was hit and miss, depending on my bandwidth that day. That’s not a small job – there have been 4333 blog entries since TwinsDaily was founded. If you appreciate all those extra voices, please let Kevin know. Community It’s a big step from reading to contributing, and we’re honored that so many of you have taken that risk. 3022 members have contributed 180,000 comments and posts. (Again, we keep our moderators pretty busy.) The level of discourse and knowledge keeps rising and more and more people are finding their voice every day. That’s what this site is all about. Thank you. Readers and Supporters Thank you to everyone for going beyond the default baseball coverage that’s easy to find and making a point of stopping by TwinsDaily and partaking in the 13 million pages that have been read in the last 21 months. We also really appreciate all of you who have let friends know, as our audience and contributors continue to grow year over year at a 40% clip. You're not alone and you're growing and growing. TwinsDaily is, to be candid, a dream come true for me. It is powered by the community that surrounds it and the volunteers that share their time, talent and energy to make it better. Thank you to everyone. Brock, Nick, Parker, Seth and I are grateful beyond words. Click here to view the article

It was a risk without an acceptable backup plan. The Twins knew that. And it failed. And they’re paying the price. And that price is a .192 batting average.Download attachment: target+field+premium.JPG That’s the combined batting average of whoever the Twins have played in right field so far. It’s last in the majors. Their combined OPS is .594. That’s the career OPS of Juan Castro. And there isn’t anything close to a solution in sight unless the Twins want to mess with their best hitter. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Two weeks before the end of spring training, the Twins shuffled the roster, deciding that Josh Willingham would move back to left field and Chris Parmelee would come north with the club as first baseman, essentially replacing Ben Revere in the starting lineup. The plan would work because Ryan Doumit had the flexibility to play a somewhat passable right field. At the time, it looked like a solid way to boost the Twins lineup, if Parmelee hit. When Parmelee fell flat early in the season, the plan went to hell. To his credit, Gardenhire has done a decent job playing musical chairs but any give night, there is position left standing. That position is right field. Seven players have started there and none of them have more than 13 starts. The projected starter, Ryan Doumit, only has six starts because on any given day there is a spot open at designated hitter or catcher that he can fill. And there is no use having him stumble around right field when it only means a questionable bench player will end up as the DH. The guy with the most starts is Trevor Plouffe. He would be the best option right now except: He’s hitting .152. He hasn’t shown any ability to hit right-handed pitching. He’s usually already at another spot in the field, playing an infield position now that Danny Valencia is in AAA.Seventeen starts have been taken by Darin Mastroianni, Eric Komatsu and Clete Thomas. They could all be valuable role players. None of them should be starting consistently in 2012 for a major league team. That leaves Revere, who has all of seven starts. Defensively, right field is a terrible position for Revere, as it limits his biggest asset (his range) and emphasizes his biggest weakness (his arm). Also, the jury is still out regarding Revere’s offense. He returned to AAA and hit .330 this year, but still hasn’t shown any ability to get on base beyond posting a crazy high batting average. Getting on base needs to be his game. The best option goes back to the original plan: moving Revere to left field where his defense makes him a real asset and having Willingham play right field. But I’ll excuse Gardenhire for not wanting to jack his cleanup (and best) hitter around. Like a lot of things the team is dealing with this year, there isn’t an easy solution. Even with a lineup that has stayed remarkably healthy, the Twins find themselves one legitimate bat short of a major league lineup on a consistent basis. Click here to view the article

Last year in Twins Territory, Denard Span was the hot topic as the trade deadline approached, much to Span’s dismay. This year, we’ve read that the Nationals are still interested in Span. They certainly should be, given their stopgap centerfield solution, Rick Ankiel, is hitting just .221. Download attachment: Denard-Span-227x300.jpg But they likely aren’t going to be alone. Span plays a premier defensive position competently, but more importantly he gets on base as a leadoff hitter. One can bet a few of the below teams will at least be calling at the trade deadline this year. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Los Angeles Dodgers The Dodgers have a pretty fair centerfielder already, though Matt Kemp is out with a hamstring injury for at least a few weeks. What they don’t have is a leadoff hitter who doesn’t induce nausea. That job was speedster Dee Gordon’s to start the year, but he’s posted a .275 OBP, so they have turned it over to Tony Gwynn Jr. while he fills in for Kemp. Whether or not they need Span depends on whether you think Bobby Abreu, who was dropped by the Angels but has a 900+ OPS for the Dodgers in limited time, will turn back into a pumpkin. If Kemp stays out, Span can fill in for him. If Abreu grows old again, Span can play left field while leading off and Abreu comes off the bench. So stay tuned…. Dodgers Top Prospects per BaseballProspectus.com Zach Lee – RHP – 4 stars Nathan Eovaldi – RHP – 3 stars Allen Webster – RHP – 3 stars Baltimore Orioles Like the Dodgers, the Orioles also have a center fielder having an MVP caliber year. But the Orioles also have big problems at their leadoff spot, with a combined OBP of just .253. Most of that can be blamed on Endy Chavez, though Robert Andino (.304 OBP) has done his share of damage, too. Again, the problem becomes finding a place for Span to play, though that doesn't appear to be a problem this year. A spot just opened up in right field where Nick Markakis was just put on the DL due to wrist surgery. There has also been a spot for a month in left field, where Nolan Reimold has been out with a bulging disk in his neck that has required multiple epidurals. Span could fit in with the Orioles long term there as Reimold is now 28 years old and has bounced between the majors and minors a bit in recent years. Orioles Top Prospects per BaseballProspectus.com Dylan Buncy – RHP – 5 stars Manny Machado – SS – 5 starts Jonathan Schoop – INF – 4 stars Cincinnati Reds The Reds lead the NL Cental with Drew Stubbs, a 27-year-old with a .300 OBP as their center fielder. He now has 1500 major league at-bats and a .249 career batting average. And believe it or not, he’s not the big problem. By the way, you’re warned – CAPS heavy sentence coming up. The big problem is the number .214. CUMATIVELY, that is the ON-BASE PERCENTAGE from the Reds LEAD-OFF hitters. It is as if every person they put atop the lineup becomes Drew Butera. Except that isn’t fair to Butera, whose career OBP is .231. I don’t know what to add to that. I’m a little stunned. How can they not get Joey Votto and Jay Bruce a little help? Let’s get to the prospects…. Reds Top Prospects per BaseballProspectus.com Billy Hamilton – SS – 5 stars Devin Mesoraco – C – 5 stars Zach Cozart – SS – 3 stars (Huh. This is the guy who is leading off for the Reds, so let’s go one more...) Robert Stephenson – RHP – 3 stars Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Appel_Mark_Praying_US_720.jpg For the latest rumors/news, check out the Official Day 1 Draft Thread. Here it is: everything you need to look like you’ve been eating and breathing MLB Draft (which starts at 6:00 tonight) for the last month, all in one quick story. The Bad News The Twins are drafting fourth in what is widely considered to be a draft with three great players. If those three go to the first three teams, the Twins will likely go one of two ways:[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Option 1 (seems most likely) They’ll draft a Texas high school pitcher with big upside named Kohl Stewart. He could be the best pitcher in the draft, but high school pitching can be risky and take several years to make it to the majors. OR…. Option 2 They’ll take a high school catcher named Reese McGuire who is ready defensively but will require time in the minors to become a major league hitter. If the Twins did this, it would be so they could save some money on the pick and use that money to “overdraft” later picks. That’s sort of the MLB equivalent of trading down in the draft. The Good News There are a lot of rumors flying around that one of the three teams above the Twins will NOT take one of the three best players. They would do so for the same reason that the Twins would do Option 2 – to save money for “overdrafting.” So, let’s explain that. Overdrafting There are three things you need to know about the MLB draft: 1) A lot of players who are eligible, but who don't get the bonus they think they should get, won't sign with a team, choosing to re-enter the draft in subsequent years. 2) Therefore, teams often don’t pick a lot of really good players if they don’t think they can sign them. 3) Teams can’t sign them because teams have a set amount they can pay players based on where they pick them. But that limit isn’t per player – it’s for their whole pool of players. This means that if the Twins saved money with their first pick, they can use their second pick on a player who was talented enough to go in the first round, but didn’t for whatever reason. Then they can offer him first-round money because they can offer the second-round money plus the money they saved. The Big Three The good news about overdrafting is that the explanation of it is now over. The really good news is that it means there is a decent chance that one of these three players could fall to the Twins. All project as difference-makers. Ace #1 - Mark Appel A college right-handed pitcher who has been on the radar for years – mostly because he was one of those guys last year who didn’t sign. He’s considered ace material and could be in the majors this year, though the Twins might want to be cautious about that given all the innings he racked up for Stanford. The biggest question about him is whether he might want more money than the #4 overall team can offer. (His agent is Scott Boras.) Ace #2 - Jonathan Gray A college right-handed pitcher who exploded on the scene this year with triple digit heat and a vicious slider. He’s also considered ace material though riskier than Appel because he has less of a track record. Also, it was revealed this week that he tested positive for Adderall, a stimulant. If things go well, he could be fronting a rotation by the end of next year. Slugger #1 – Kris Bryant A slugger who at one point this year had hit more home runs than 90% of Division 1 teams. Read those last words again. Bryant also didn’t have much of a track record before this year and scouts aren’t sure if his defense will be good enough to stay at 3rd base. But with that kind of power, who cares where he plays? He also could reach the majors soon, maybe arriving about the same time next year as Twins uber-prospect Miguel Sano, a slugger who might struggle to stay at 3rd base. It’s HERE! One way or the other, you’re going to have a reason to be excited Friday morning. Either the Twins are adding high-end pitching they desperately need, yet one more eye-popping bat - or a catcher plus more talent in later rounds. (OK, maybe you won't be excited no matter what they do.) But it should be an exciting day, so if you want to live and die with each pick, I’d recommend participating in the Official Day 1 Draft Thread. Enjoy. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: GDR_shirts_large.jpg Aaron and John are joined at stops along the Grand Drunk Railroad by special guests David Brauer of MinnPost, Jack Moore of Sports on Earth, and Kate Agnew of Girls in Tech to talk about the Twins' season ticket holder survey, hanging onto Josh Willingham, maximizing your investment in tickets, moving to Minnesota from Wisconsin, the value of pitch-framing, fitting the lineup pieces together for 2015, the Brewers' closing window, and fighting for "official couple" status. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Baseball%u00252520TV.jpg Aaron Gleeman and the Twins Geek discuss Zumaya's injury, rank JR Towles chances of unseating Drew Butera, watch the Twins first televised spring training game, take questions at the Wild Boar and finally unveil John's original "Beauty & The Beast" theme song. Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe and leave reviews).[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Jeter_Derek_Smiling_US_720.jpg Aaron and John talk about Phil Hughes' impressive first two months, beating the new-look Yankees, why Jason Kubel is stealing at-bats from Josmil Pinto, Oswaldo Arcia and Josh Willingham returning, Aaron Hicks giving up switch-hitting, Jon Jay trade rumors, technical difficulties, Joe Mauer's struggles, and Ben Revere's shocking home run. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [/hr]Twins beat the Yankees on Sunday, so you win today. Get 50% of a Large or XL pizza at PapaJohns.com when using the promo code 'TWINSWIN'. Click here to view the article

Hyperbole is fun. Download attachment: cuffl458504_159613_jb1.jpg It is. It’s also easy. Plus, it sounds so darn authoritative. No wonder it’s so often our go to form of entertainment. Our latest example (for baseball, because this is a baseball blog) was the deal the Tigers just signed with Prince Fielder. The Tigers suddenly became favorites to win the World Series. Which is interesting, because about a week earlier, even their candidacy for the AL Central crown was in doubt when their second best hitter, Victor Martinez, was going to miss the year after a knee injury. Is the hyperbole correct? Is Fielder such an upgrade over Martinez that the Tigers, who won 95 games last year (but only had the run differential of an 89-win team), are a lock for the AL Central? [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Let’s just do a little back of the napkin figuring on what this means the Tigers. Some of the hyperbole is dead on. Fielder is every bit that good. The contract is being called ridiculous by a ton of baseball analysts, but if you’re going to give a ridiculous contract to someone, Fielder is a pretty good choice. We like to make fun of his size, but there are 130 runs hidden in that ample waist and his size hasn’t stopped him from playing at least 157 games per year every year since 2006. He's probably even better than you think. A really nice metric for measuring a hitter’s offensive impact is Bill James’ Runs Created (RC). James demonstrated that by looking at the number of walks, hits, doubles, triples, homeruns and at-bats a team had, he could give a pretty good estimate of how many runs they scored that year. Then he used that same formula for players. (It’s a fun metric, and if you have an extra five minutes to dive into details, I did a short tutorial on it here.) Using RC (as pulled from ESPN.com), Fielder has created 130, 114 and 141 runs for the Brewers each of the last three years. Martinez, on the other hand, is no slouch, but has generated 91, 81 and 105. That’s about 35 runs less per season than Fielder. Fielder also hasn’t been a terrible first baseman. He’s below average, but has cost his team only about five run per season the last few years. The bigger concern for the Tigers is the talk about Miguel Cabrera moving back to third base. He wasn’t a terrible third baseman with the Marlins, but that was back in 2007. It’s not too crazy to suggest he would be one of the worst third basemen in baseball if he were to play there full time. The worst third basemen in baseball cost their teams about 15-20 runs last year. Which would still mean that the Tigers are coming out ahead 15-20 runs. That’s about two wins. But is that really going to happen? The Tigers might not WANT to put Cabrera or Fielder in the DH spot regularly, and those players may not want to play there either. But nobody is going to want to watch Cabrera embarrass (or hurt) himself either. And if you're going to play Brandon Inge anyway, wouldn't you rather play him at third? So those other 15-20 runs are in play, too. That could be another two wins. Still, the hyperbole probably isn’t accurate. Fielder likely improves the Tigers above and beyond what Martinez could have provided, adding 2-4 wins. That certainly strengthens their hand, but it doesn’t launch them into a world-class level, and they’re still within reach of whichever other AL Central team puts things together this year. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: souvenir-from-united-states-baseball-nevada-las-vegas-collage-31811.jpg Aaron and John talk about picking over/under win totals for each team, Kyle Gibson vs. Scott Diamond and Aaron Hicks vs. Alex Presley, Sam Deduno moving to the bullpen, drinking Hammerheart beer and eating all kinds of good stuff at New Bohemia, Vance Worley clearing waivers, how not to get an iPhone, Josmil Pinto and the catcher situation, Padres fan bartenders, and succulent sausages. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Here's the breakdown...[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]1:30 – Australian Twins 4:30 – Hammerheart/New Bohemia 7:45 – Running Sap 11:30 – Starter Race 22:30 – Assembling dreck 25:00 – Hicks return 31:00 – Batting 2nd 35:30 - Succulent Sausages 39:00 – Fattening up 40:30 – Vance Worley 43:00 – Twins catchers 43:50 – Bench speculation 48:00 – Shaving letters 49:00 – Aaron’s iphone 53:45 – Over-unders 57:25 – Houston Astros 58:30 – Beer flights 1:05:00 - Seattle Mariners 1:08:30 – LA Angels 1:13:00 – Texas Rangers 1:16:30 – Oakland A’s 1:20:30 – Blue Jays 1:24:30 – Baltimore Orioles 1:27:00 – Yankees 1:30:30 – Red Sox 1:32:00 - Tampa Bay 1:33:30 – White Sox 1:35:00 – Cleveland Indians 1:37:00 – KC Royals 1:39:30 – Detroit Tigers 1:42:00 – Minnesota Twins 1:46:00 – San Diego Padres 1:47:00 - Next week Click here to view the article

Download attachment: BlackboardTeal.jpg Pitch To Contact - at this point, I think we can go with capital letters, don't you? That phrase and philosophy have drawn a fair amount of criticism, a chunk of which is just snark, but some of which at least tries to ground itself in statistical analysis. In a thread started yesterday on Twins Daily, there was a lot of debate on Pitch To Contact, what it means and what we really know about its effects. When Bill James unveiled several new tools for analyzing baseball, the most fundamental ones usually started by analyzing team stats.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] For instance, by studying teams' wins and losses, he found a correlation with runs scored and runs given up. And by studying team runs scored, he discovered a correlation between getting on base and total bases. From there, it's a short step to assuming that if you get a lot of players who get on base or hit for power, you'll score more runs. But how about teams that don't give up many runs? If we take a look at teams for the last few years, can we see a trend in those that don't give up many runs? And does that trend match or contradict a "Pitch To Contact" philosophy. So let's do a very quick-and-dirty back-of-the-napkin study. I looked at 150 teams, or all the teams from the last five years, ranked them by runs/game (R/G) and then searched the stats that most closely correlate with it. I did this using the "CORREL" function in Excel, which generates a coefficient between 0 and 1. 1 means a perfect correlation. 0 means it is entirely random. The full results are at the bottom, but here is a summary. Those who are critical of the Pitch To Contact philosophy are usually reacting to the reduced emphasis it puts on striking people out. The K/9 correlation to runs per game is .54, one of the lower correlations on the list. That's lower than I would have expected. Clearly, having a staff that strikes out a ton of batters isn't especially important. The defenders of the Pitch To Contact philosophy like to say that it's essentially saying "throw strikes." Presumably, that would imply not walking people, something that the Twins have certainly emphasized. However, the correlation of BB/9 to R/G is about the same: .56. Like strikeouts, not walking players is good, but not great. Combing the two gets us a little closer. SO/BB has a .69 correlation. Close to that correlation is something else the Twins have been especially good at this year: not giving up home runs. HR/9 has a .65 correlation. But the winner, without question, is hits. H/9 has a correlation of .88, crazy high compared to the other traditional stats in the list. That might seem obvious - if you don't give up hits, you shouldn't give up runs. So the question changes....how do you avoid giving up hits? Well, it isn't just "strike people out". In fact, we proved just the opposite - that's fine, but a very small part of the story. So the difference is...defense? Luck? Secret sauce? The truth is we don't know what it is. Sabrmetrics is still remarkably poor at predicting pitching. But we know what it isn't - it isn't as easy as gathering Ks. And whatever philosophy one adopts, its goal better be limiting hits. ~~~ Here is a link to the spreadsheet to check things or play with it yourself: https://docs.google....dit?usp=sharing ~~~ And here are the final numbers.... Stat Correl R/G 1.00 R 1.00 ERA 0.99 ER 0.99 WHIP 0.93 H/9 0.88 H 0.86 ERA+ -0.81 BF 0.80 SO/BB -0.69 L 0.66 W-L% -0.66 W -0.66 HR 0.66 HR/9 0.65 tmSHO -0.65 SO -0.57 BB/9 0.56 SO/9 -0.54 #Pitch 0.54 BB 0.53 SV -0.53 IP -0.51 cgSHO -0.36 GF 0.32 CG -0.32 HBP 0.27 WP 0.27 BK 0.20 PitchAge -0.13 IBB 0.01 Click here to view the article