John Bonnes

~~~ sponsored by Ticket King ~~~ Download attachment: Puig_Yasiel_HighFive_US_720.jpg The Dodgers have been to Target Field before; just three years ago the Twins (despite a dismal year) took two of three, serving as dismal hosts. With Minnesota in the middle of a week-long rainstorm, the Dodgers might be back quite a bit sooner. There is no point in avoiding it: the story for this series is the weather, so let’s break it down…. The Possible Makeup Dates There are three dates this year that the Dodgers and Twins both have open and they’re all on Mondays: May 19 – The Twins will be wrapping up a homestand against Boston and Seattle and the Dodgers will be leaving Arizona and be on their way to New York City to play the Mets on the 20th. Also, both teams (at least right now) have an off day earlier that week, so it wouldn’t be such a hardship. This date seems like it would work best. July 28 – The Twins will be concluding a nine-game homestand and the Dodger will be finishing a nine-game road trip. This one doesn’t work out quite as well because the Dodgers would need to fly from San Francisco on Sunday and back home on Tuesday, but it’ll work. August 25 – The Twins will be ending a 10-game homestand against AL Central teams and the Dodgers be wrapping up their own homestand too. Again – this game isn’t exactly on the Dodgers flight path. They would leave LA, fly to Minneapolis, play a game and then go back to Phoenix to face the Diamondbacks. Actually, “a game” might be optimistic. If two games are cancelled, I suppose one of these days could host a doubleheader. I also suppose this presents a unique opportunity for those people who are buying Twins tickets on the open market (such as at TicketKingOnline.com). All of these dates generally have a lot nicer weather then you’ll see right now. Why not buy some seats super cheap and wait to see which game you get? I can think of three significant risks to that plan: 1) The game might be played as scheduled in really miserable conditions. 2) The game might be part of a doubleheader on Thursday, when there is a slightly lesser chance of rain. 3) The rescheduled game could be on a Monday afternoon, which could be good or bad depending on your work schedule. An Unbelievable Story Oh yeah, you might want to know a thing or two about the Dodgers. First: Yasiel Puig. Puig’s stats this year aren’t quite as gaudy as last year, when he was called up as a 22-year-old, hit .319 with 19 home runs and 11 stolen bases, finished second in Rookie of the Year voting, garnered votes for the National League MVP and led the Dodgers from last to first in the NL West over the last 100+ games of the season. His was easily the most exciting story in baseball last year. And yet his story may have already been topped. Recently, the story of his escape from Cuba was detailed in Los Angeles Magazine by Jesse Katz. A quick summary: drug lords, Cuban informants, double-crossing HVAC contractors, threats with machetes, lawsuits, chicken blood and a dead boat captain. I dare you not to click the link. Anyway, you’ll find him in right field, so you might want to shoot for something in Section 103, where I see $15 tickets. (Which is coincidentally in Target Field’s craft beer corner. Just saying.) No matter how his story ends, it might be able to tell your grandkids someday that “you saw him when….” Pitching Matchups Your guess is as good as mine as to how the pitching matchups will look if there’s another rainout. Kyle Gibson is up next and will likely get a chance to bounce back after his first rough outing and after having a couple of extra days of rest. Mike Pelfrey should pitch the second game, but if either of those first two games are cancelled, might the Twins just stick with Ricky Nolasco on Thursday and skip one of Pelfrey’s starts? The Dodgers rotation is bringing some star power, as they are wont to do. They’ll start with Zach Greinke, who is 0-3 with a 5.63 ERA lifetime in Target Field. Then comes Dan Haren, who is sporting a 3-0 record and a 2.03 ERA so far. If they get all three games in we’ll see Josh Beckett, who has recovered from a thumb injury and has a 2.45 ERA in four starts. ~~~ Obviously, this is a chance for some bargains, especially considering the drawing power of the Dodgers. There are $4 tickets for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. If you’re a Dodgers fan, the seats around their dugout are a little more scarce, but I see a pair right next to the dugout for each game for $55-$62. That becomes an even better deal if you use the promo code DAILYDOUBLE, which will get you 10% off and supports Twins Daily. Whatever your needs, your local ticket supplier, Ticket King, can help. ~~~ Click here to view the article

In Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance, Robert M Pirsig dwells on a topic about which we often argue at Twins Daily: Truth. (*1) Given a finite amount of data – and there is always only a finite amount of data – the human imagination is capable of creating an infinite number of explanations for what that data shows. But ultimately, one strikes us as The Truth. It can feel like an epiphany, an absolute. But it’s really just the prettiest of the explanations of which we can conceive. Download attachment: Ryan_Terry_Landscape.jpg This is true even for scientific facts, like gravity (*2). It's even more true when there is less observable data, like say, watching the moves of your favorite baseball team's front office. We can speculate from the outside, but odds are the truths we think we've found are the truths that appeal to us and are likely to change. My experience is that even when the people involved tell you The Truth, it's of limited value. They likely don't want to tell you the whole truth. It may even be that they don't understand it themselves. At the press conference where the Twins introduced Ricky Nolasco, Terry Ryan was asked about whether the Twins philosophy is changing towards free agency. He replied that he didn't think so (*3), that they had always said that they would utilize free agency when it was appropriate, and this was certainly appropriate. He implied the difference was that they now had the resources. That's a fine explanation, one that certainly can pass as The Truth for a limited set of facts. But there are other facts it doesn't explain. And the top one is that the Twins were in the exact same situation last year, and risked just $15 million on two pitchers, instead of the $73 million (and maybe more, soon) that they have already spent this year. In fact, last year, they under-spent their budget by $20 million. This additional data point can also be explained an infinite number of ways. For instance, 1) Maybe an extra year of losing added more urgency. 2) Maybe last year the increase in prices surprised the Twins. 3) Maybe Ryan just wasn't accustomed to having money to spend. 4) Maybe they just like Nolasco and Phil Hughes more than any pitchers last year. 5) Maybe someone new in the front office gained influence and convinced the organization to spend the money. 6) Maybe someone above Terry Ryan in the Twins hierarchy convinced him to spend the money. Or maybe the philosophy changed. Whichever truth you choose depends on which additional events you choose to include, and which explanation you find most appealing. (*1)Actually, Robert M. Persig dwells on a lot of things, and they’re all wrapped inside an intriguing and somewhat gut-wrenching story that I should really re-read. And which you should too. It’s the offseason. Trust me on this one. (*2)You might have trouble, even in the Twins Daily forums, arguing against gravity. But before Isaac Newton, people noticed that stuff tended to fall to earth. The accepted Truth was that objects had an “earthly nature” that made them return to earth. It wasn’t until Newton came along and started talking about the other heavenly bodies and how they were holding other objects in orbit, and creating formulas for how quickly things fell to earth, that the idea of gravity sunk in. For the record, those previous “nature” ideas weren’t proposed by some dummy. This was Aristotlian (as in Aristotle) Physics. It was the truth for nearly two thousand years because it made sense to everyone. We accept gravity because it made even more sense once we started realizing the earth wasn’t the center of the universe. And we might well throw it aside – and Albert Einstein already did as part of general relativity. Which, by the way, has been modified several times by various theories. Einstein doesn't have all matter attracting other matter. Rather, matter curves spacetime, bending objects in motion towards itself. And with that insufficient teaser, I and my one trimester of physics are disentangling ourselves from this explanation. Instead, I choose to focus on this: we are talking about something that most would consider scientific fact, and yet every few hundred years, it’s modified as we recognize a different explanation as "truth" for why that apple falls on your head. They all explain the apple. But the one we accept at different times extends from additional facts and observations and is eventually adopted as the cleanest explanation. If scientific fact is that malleable, how absolute is any truth? (*3) The question was asked by Wally Langfellow of Minnesota Score magazine. Here was Ryan's entire reply: “No, I don’t think so Wally. This isn’t a change in philosophy. We’ve always said, if we need to do something. Now we have the resources to do it; there’s no doubt. If we were still in the Metrodome, this probably wouldn’t happen. But we’re in Target Field. We’ve got more revenue and resources, certainly. This is a nice opportunity. We need pitching. We went out and got it. As people recall, we tried to retain [Johan] Santana or retain Torii Hunter. To some extent, we just didn’t have the wherewithal. We would not hesitate to jump into free agency. I don’t think it’s the greatest path, because it is risky. We all know that. Free agency is not the answer. It’s a help and a supplement to a roster. But if you’re relying on free agency year-in and year-out, it’s not gonna work. Now we’re in a situation where we need help. We need immediate help. And this is the reason Ricky is sitting here. But I don’t see this as a big change. Yeah, this is a nice contract for any player. But we’ve given out contracts of sizable worth and that lad over there on that poster [Ryan points to a picture of Joe Mauer] is a good example. He’s making a lot of money. We’re not afraid to do it, provided we get the right fit.” Click here to view the article

Download attachment: TNP-2012-research-box-journal-image.jpg Thursday night, which is an off night for the Twins, can still be full of baseball. At 7PM at the Barnes and Noble in Har Mar Mall, there will be a book signing of Short But Wondrous Summers: Baseball In The North Star State by several of the writers who contributed, including myself. The book, all by itself, is a rare opportunity. It is only produced for those cities which host a SABR convention, which happened this past June. As part of that, SABR recruits members to contribute stories, history and research surrounding the region that hosts it. It's not an exaggeration to say that a compilation of Minnesota baseball information like this is something that happens once in a generation. Whatever your baseball library looks like, it will be considerably upgraded with the inclusion of Short But Wondrous Summers. (If you can't make it Thursday night, you can also order the book or just learn more about it here.) Beyond that, several of the authors of the book will be there to give a short talk about the chapter that they wrote. There will also be a chance to ask questions. Finally, there will be a quick book signing, too. If you can make it, please make sure to introduce yourself. I'd love to talk about Twins Daily, or the Twins, or Gleeman and the Geek, or just about anything else. The good lord willing, maybe we can even grab a beer afterwards. I'll see you there. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: 343_hammond.jpg John and Aaron talk about the Twins signing Rafael Perez, which arms will be healthy, stuffing seven relievers into two bullpen spots, how much a person is allowed to like Brian Dozier, ornery insomnia, casting CSI:GATG, why Joe Benson should be left-handed, unprofessional bathroom breaks, Liam Hendriks vs. Kyle Gibson, snowshoes and the Vinland Center's "winter walkabout" charity, and the importance of spring training. the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Episode 24: Zumaya and Arbitration Aaron and John are joined by special guest Nick Nelson and talk about the Joel Zumaya signing, Glen Perkins, Alexi Casilla, Francisco Liriano, and the arbitration process, Roy Oswalt rumors, Delmon Young's contract with the Tigers, Victor Martinez's injury, and looking back at the top Twins prospects of 2011. Direct download: Ep_24_Zumaya__Arbitration.mp3 RSS: http://gleemangeek.libsyn.com/rss iTunes: http://itunes.apple....eek/id457946327 [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Download attachment: ps.eogeusbt.170x170-75.jpg Click here to view the article

648 days ago, TwinsDaily was launched. Today seems an appropriate (and belated) time to thank so many of you who contribute to the site. So please join me in thanking our…. Download attachment: turkey-baseball-11658716.jpg Moderators Our moderators have tracked 8276 threads since we launched less than two years ago, performing what I consider the most demanding and least rewarding job on the site. If you appreciate the forums as a place to discuss Twins news, please let them know, Without them, I assure you the forums would have disappeared months ago: glunn, snepp, Riverbrian, ashburyjohn, USAFChief, ChiTownTwinsFan Writers Of the 2182 stories that have appeared on TwinsDaily, over 1/3 were not written by Nick, Seth, Parker, Brock or I. Instead, they’ve been contributed by members of the community. This includes: Beat Writers Christopher Fee (@CJFee) Andrew Walter (@MNfanfromafar) Jim Crikket/SD Buhr (@JimCrikket) Minor League Reports and Draft Coverage Cody Christie (@NoDakTwinsFan) Jeremy Nygaard (@JeremyNygaard) Bloggers With At Least 10 Stories Brad Swanson (@bridman77) AJ Pettersen (@apettersen1) Thrylos (@thrylos98) PeanutsFromHeaven (@HeavenlyPeanuts) Mr. Horrorpants (@mrhorrorpants) Bwille (@BeeWill15) I could to on and on; there have been 62 other people who have published stories on Twins Daily. So please reach out to your favorites to show your appreciation, and use the links to follow them on Twitter. Editor A lot of those writers have been promoted because Kevin volunteers to comb through our blogs daily and help us identify stories that are worth promoting as well as edit them. Before that, our ability to promote stories was hit and miss, depending on my bandwidth that day. That’s not a small job – there have been 4333 blog entries since TwinsDaily was founded. If you appreciate all those extra voices, please let Kevin know. Community It’s a big step from reading to contributing, and we’re honored that so many of you have taken that risk. 3022 members have contributed 180,000 comments and posts. (Again, we keep our moderators pretty busy.) The level of discourse and knowledge keeps rising and more and more people are finding their voice every day. That’s what this site is all about. Thank you. Readers and Supporters Thank you to everyone for going beyond the default baseball coverage that’s easy to find and making a point of stopping by TwinsDaily and partaking in the 13 million pages that have been read in the last 21 months. We also really appreciate all of you who have let friends know, as our audience and contributors continue to grow year over year at a 40% clip. You're not alone and you're growing and growing. TwinsDaily is, to be candid, a dream come true for me. It is powered by the community that surrounds it and the volunteers that share their time, talent and energy to make it better. Thank you to everyone. Brock, Nick, Parker, Seth and I are grateful beyond words. Click here to view the article

It was a risk without an acceptable backup plan. The Twins knew that. And it failed. And they’re paying the price. And that price is a .192 batting average.Download attachment: target+field+premium.JPG That’s the combined batting average of whoever the Twins have played in right field so far. It’s last in the majors. Their combined OPS is .594. That’s the career OPS of Juan Castro. And there isn’t anything close to a solution in sight unless the Twins want to mess with their best hitter. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Two weeks before the end of spring training, the Twins shuffled the roster, deciding that Josh Willingham would move back to left field and Chris Parmelee would come north with the club as first baseman, essentially replacing Ben Revere in the starting lineup. The plan would work because Ryan Doumit had the flexibility to play a somewhat passable right field. At the time, it looked like a solid way to boost the Twins lineup, if Parmelee hit. When Parmelee fell flat early in the season, the plan went to hell. To his credit, Gardenhire has done a decent job playing musical chairs but any give night, there is position left standing. That position is right field. Seven players have started there and none of them have more than 13 starts. The projected starter, Ryan Doumit, only has six starts because on any given day there is a spot open at designated hitter or catcher that he can fill. And there is no use having him stumble around right field when it only means a questionable bench player will end up as the DH. The guy with the most starts is Trevor Plouffe. He would be the best option right now except: He’s hitting .152. He hasn’t shown any ability to hit right-handed pitching. He’s usually already at another spot in the field, playing an infield position now that Danny Valencia is in AAA.Seventeen starts have been taken by Darin Mastroianni, Eric Komatsu and Clete Thomas. They could all be valuable role players. None of them should be starting consistently in 2012 for a major league team. That leaves Revere, who has all of seven starts. Defensively, right field is a terrible position for Revere, as it limits his biggest asset (his range) and emphasizes his biggest weakness (his arm). Also, the jury is still out regarding Revere’s offense. He returned to AAA and hit .330 this year, but still hasn’t shown any ability to get on base beyond posting a crazy high batting average. Getting on base needs to be his game. The best option goes back to the original plan: moving Revere to left field where his defense makes him a real asset and having Willingham play right field. But I’ll excuse Gardenhire for not wanting to jack his cleanup (and best) hitter around. Like a lot of things the team is dealing with this year, there isn’t an easy solution. Even with a lineup that has stayed remarkably healthy, the Twins find themselves one legitimate bat short of a major league lineup on a consistent basis. Click here to view the article

Last year in Twins Territory, Denard Span was the hot topic as the trade deadline approached, much to Span’s dismay. This year, we’ve read that the Nationals are still interested in Span. They certainly should be, given their stopgap centerfield solution, Rick Ankiel, is hitting just .221. Download attachment: Denard-Span-227x300.jpg But they likely aren’t going to be alone. Span plays a premier defensive position competently, but more importantly he gets on base as a leadoff hitter. One can bet a few of the below teams will at least be calling at the trade deadline this year. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Los Angeles Dodgers The Dodgers have a pretty fair centerfielder already, though Matt Kemp is out with a hamstring injury for at least a few weeks. What they don’t have is a leadoff hitter who doesn’t induce nausea. That job was speedster Dee Gordon’s to start the year, but he’s posted a .275 OBP, so they have turned it over to Tony Gwynn Jr. while he fills in for Kemp. Whether or not they need Span depends on whether you think Bobby Abreu, who was dropped by the Angels but has a 900+ OPS for the Dodgers in limited time, will turn back into a pumpkin. If Kemp stays out, Span can fill in for him. If Abreu grows old again, Span can play left field while leading off and Abreu comes off the bench. So stay tuned…. Dodgers Top Prospects per BaseballProspectus.com Zach Lee – RHP – 4 stars Nathan Eovaldi – RHP – 3 stars Allen Webster – RHP – 3 stars Baltimore Orioles Like the Dodgers, the Orioles also have a center fielder having an MVP caliber year. But the Orioles also have big problems at their leadoff spot, with a combined OBP of just .253. Most of that can be blamed on Endy Chavez, though Robert Andino (.304 OBP) has done his share of damage, too. Again, the problem becomes finding a place for Span to play, though that doesn't appear to be a problem this year. A spot just opened up in right field where Nick Markakis was just put on the DL due to wrist surgery. There has also been a spot for a month in left field, where Nolan Reimold has been out with a bulging disk in his neck that has required multiple epidurals. Span could fit in with the Orioles long term there as Reimold is now 28 years old and has bounced between the majors and minors a bit in recent years. Orioles Top Prospects per BaseballProspectus.com Dylan Buncy – RHP – 5 stars Manny Machado – SS – 5 starts Jonathan Schoop – INF – 4 stars Cincinnati Reds The Reds lead the NL Cental with Drew Stubbs, a 27-year-old with a .300 OBP as their center fielder. He now has 1500 major league at-bats and a .249 career batting average. And believe it or not, he’s not the big problem. By the way, you’re warned – CAPS heavy sentence coming up. The big problem is the number .214. CUMATIVELY, that is the ON-BASE PERCENTAGE from the Reds LEAD-OFF hitters. It is as if every person they put atop the lineup becomes Drew Butera. Except that isn’t fair to Butera, whose career OBP is .231. I don’t know what to add to that. I’m a little stunned. How can they not get Joey Votto and Jay Bruce a little help? Let’s get to the prospects…. Reds Top Prospects per BaseballProspectus.com Billy Hamilton – SS – 5 stars Devin Mesoraco – C – 5 stars Zach Cozart – SS – 3 stars (Huh. This is the guy who is leading off for the Reds, so let’s go one more...) Robert Stephenson – RHP – 3 stars Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Appel_Mark_Praying_US_720.jpg For the latest rumors/news, check out the Official Day 1 Draft Thread. Here it is: everything you need to look like you’ve been eating and breathing MLB Draft (which starts at 6:00 tonight) for the last month, all in one quick story. The Bad News The Twins are drafting fourth in what is widely considered to be a draft with three great players. If those three go to the first three teams, the Twins will likely go one of two ways:[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Option 1 (seems most likely) They’ll draft a Texas high school pitcher with big upside named Kohl Stewart. He could be the best pitcher in the draft, but high school pitching can be risky and take several years to make it to the majors. OR…. Option 2 They’ll take a high school catcher named Reese McGuire who is ready defensively but will require time in the minors to become a major league hitter. If the Twins did this, it would be so they could save some money on the pick and use that money to “overdraft” later picks. That’s sort of the MLB equivalent of trading down in the draft. The Good News There are a lot of rumors flying around that one of the three teams above the Twins will NOT take one of the three best players. They would do so for the same reason that the Twins would do Option 2 – to save money for “overdrafting.” So, let’s explain that. Overdrafting There are three things you need to know about the MLB draft: 1) A lot of players who are eligible, but who don't get the bonus they think they should get, won't sign with a team, choosing to re-enter the draft in subsequent years. 2) Therefore, teams often don’t pick a lot of really good players if they don’t think they can sign them. 3) Teams can’t sign them because teams have a set amount they can pay players based on where they pick them. But that limit isn’t per player – it’s for their whole pool of players. This means that if the Twins saved money with their first pick, they can use their second pick on a player who was talented enough to go in the first round, but didn’t for whatever reason. Then they can offer him first-round money because they can offer the second-round money plus the money they saved. The Big Three The good news about overdrafting is that the explanation of it is now over. The really good news is that it means there is a decent chance that one of these three players could fall to the Twins. All project as difference-makers. Ace #1 - Mark Appel A college right-handed pitcher who has been on the radar for years – mostly because he was one of those guys last year who didn’t sign. He’s considered ace material and could be in the majors this year, though the Twins might want to be cautious about that given all the innings he racked up for Stanford. The biggest question about him is whether he might want more money than the #4 overall team can offer. (His agent is Scott Boras.) Ace #2 - Jonathan Gray A college right-handed pitcher who exploded on the scene this year with triple digit heat and a vicious slider. He’s also considered ace material though riskier than Appel because he has less of a track record. Also, it was revealed this week that he tested positive for Adderall, a stimulant. If things go well, he could be fronting a rotation by the end of next year. Slugger #1 – Kris Bryant A slugger who at one point this year had hit more home runs than 90% of Division 1 teams. Read those last words again. Bryant also didn’t have much of a track record before this year and scouts aren’t sure if his defense will be good enough to stay at 3rd base. But with that kind of power, who cares where he plays? He also could reach the majors soon, maybe arriving about the same time next year as Twins uber-prospect Miguel Sano, a slugger who might struggle to stay at 3rd base. It’s HERE! One way or the other, you’re going to have a reason to be excited Friday morning. Either the Twins are adding high-end pitching they desperately need, yet one more eye-popping bat - or a catcher plus more talent in later rounds. (OK, maybe you won't be excited no matter what they do.) But it should be an exciting day, so if you want to live and die with each pick, I’d recommend participating in the Official Day 1 Draft Thread. Enjoy. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: GDR_shirts_large.jpg Aaron and John are joined at stops along the Grand Drunk Railroad by special guests David Brauer of MinnPost, Jack Moore of Sports on Earth, and Kate Agnew of Girls in Tech to talk about the Twins' season ticket holder survey, hanging onto Josh Willingham, maximizing your investment in tickets, moving to Minnesota from Wisconsin, the value of pitch-framing, fitting the lineup pieces together for 2015, the Brewers' closing window, and fighting for "official couple" status. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Baseball%u00252520TV.jpg Aaron Gleeman and the Twins Geek discuss Zumaya's injury, rank JR Towles chances of unseating Drew Butera, watch the Twins first televised spring training game, take questions at the Wild Boar and finally unveil John's original "Beauty & The Beast" theme song. Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe and leave reviews).[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Jeter_Derek_Smiling_US_720.jpg Aaron and John talk about Phil Hughes' impressive first two months, beating the new-look Yankees, why Jason Kubel is stealing at-bats from Josmil Pinto, Oswaldo Arcia and Josh Willingham returning, Aaron Hicks giving up switch-hitting, Jon Jay trade rumors, technical difficulties, Joe Mauer's struggles, and Ben Revere's shocking home run. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [/hr]Twins beat the Yankees on Sunday, so you win today. Get 50% of a Large or XL pizza at PapaJohns.com when using the promo code 'TWINSWIN'. Click here to view the article

Hyperbole is fun. Download attachment: cuffl458504_159613_jb1.jpg It is. It’s also easy. Plus, it sounds so darn authoritative. No wonder it’s so often our go to form of entertainment. Our latest example (for baseball, because this is a baseball blog) was the deal the Tigers just signed with Prince Fielder. The Tigers suddenly became favorites to win the World Series. Which is interesting, because about a week earlier, even their candidacy for the AL Central crown was in doubt when their second best hitter, Victor Martinez, was going to miss the year after a knee injury. Is the hyperbole correct? Is Fielder such an upgrade over Martinez that the Tigers, who won 95 games last year (but only had the run differential of an 89-win team), are a lock for the AL Central? [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Let’s just do a little back of the napkin figuring on what this means the Tigers. Some of the hyperbole is dead on. Fielder is every bit that good. The contract is being called ridiculous by a ton of baseball analysts, but if you’re going to give a ridiculous contract to someone, Fielder is a pretty good choice. We like to make fun of his size, but there are 130 runs hidden in that ample waist and his size hasn’t stopped him from playing at least 157 games per year every year since 2006. He's probably even better than you think. A really nice metric for measuring a hitter’s offensive impact is Bill James’ Runs Created (RC). James demonstrated that by looking at the number of walks, hits, doubles, triples, homeruns and at-bats a team had, he could give a pretty good estimate of how many runs they scored that year. Then he used that same formula for players. (It’s a fun metric, and if you have an extra five minutes to dive into details, I did a short tutorial on it here.) Using RC (as pulled from ESPN.com), Fielder has created 130, 114 and 141 runs for the Brewers each of the last three years. Martinez, on the other hand, is no slouch, but has generated 91, 81 and 105. That’s about 35 runs less per season than Fielder. Fielder also hasn’t been a terrible first baseman. He’s below average, but has cost his team only about five run per season the last few years. The bigger concern for the Tigers is the talk about Miguel Cabrera moving back to third base. He wasn’t a terrible third baseman with the Marlins, but that was back in 2007. It’s not too crazy to suggest he would be one of the worst third basemen in baseball if he were to play there full time. The worst third basemen in baseball cost their teams about 15-20 runs last year. Which would still mean that the Tigers are coming out ahead 15-20 runs. That’s about two wins. But is that really going to happen? The Tigers might not WANT to put Cabrera or Fielder in the DH spot regularly, and those players may not want to play there either. But nobody is going to want to watch Cabrera embarrass (or hurt) himself either. And if you're going to play Brandon Inge anyway, wouldn't you rather play him at third? So those other 15-20 runs are in play, too. That could be another two wins. Still, the hyperbole probably isn’t accurate. Fielder likely improves the Tigers above and beyond what Martinez could have provided, adding 2-4 wins. That certainly strengthens their hand, but it doesn’t launch them into a world-class level, and they’re still within reach of whichever other AL Central team puts things together this year. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: souvenir-from-united-states-baseball-nevada-las-vegas-collage-31811.jpg Aaron and John talk about picking over/under win totals for each team, Kyle Gibson vs. Scott Diamond and Aaron Hicks vs. Alex Presley, Sam Deduno moving to the bullpen, drinking Hammerheart beer and eating all kinds of good stuff at New Bohemia, Vance Worley clearing waivers, how not to get an iPhone, Josmil Pinto and the catcher situation, Padres fan bartenders, and succulent sausages. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Here's the breakdown...[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]1:30 – Australian Twins 4:30 – Hammerheart/New Bohemia 7:45 – Running Sap 11:30 – Starter Race 22:30 – Assembling dreck 25:00 – Hicks return 31:00 – Batting 2nd 35:30 - Succulent Sausages 39:00 – Fattening up 40:30 – Vance Worley 43:00 – Twins catchers 43:50 – Bench speculation 48:00 – Shaving letters 49:00 – Aaron’s iphone 53:45 – Over-unders 57:25 – Houston Astros 58:30 – Beer flights 1:05:00 - Seattle Mariners 1:08:30 – LA Angels 1:13:00 – Texas Rangers 1:16:30 – Oakland A’s 1:20:30 – Blue Jays 1:24:30 – Baltimore Orioles 1:27:00 – Yankees 1:30:30 – Red Sox 1:32:00 - Tampa Bay 1:33:30 – White Sox 1:35:00 – Cleveland Indians 1:37:00 – KC Royals 1:39:30 – Detroit Tigers 1:42:00 – Minnesota Twins 1:46:00 – San Diego Padres 1:47:00 - Next week Click here to view the article

Download attachment: BlackboardTeal.jpg Pitch To Contact - at this point, I think we can go with capital letters, don't you? That phrase and philosophy have drawn a fair amount of criticism, a chunk of which is just snark, but some of which at least tries to ground itself in statistical analysis. In a thread started yesterday on Twins Daily, there was a lot of debate on Pitch To Contact, what it means and what we really know about its effects. When Bill James unveiled several new tools for analyzing baseball, the most fundamental ones usually started by analyzing team stats.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] For instance, by studying teams' wins and losses, he found a correlation with runs scored and runs given up. And by studying team runs scored, he discovered a correlation between getting on base and total bases. From there, it's a short step to assuming that if you get a lot of players who get on base or hit for power, you'll score more runs. But how about teams that don't give up many runs? If we take a look at teams for the last few years, can we see a trend in those that don't give up many runs? And does that trend match or contradict a "Pitch To Contact" philosophy. So let's do a very quick-and-dirty back-of-the-napkin study. I looked at 150 teams, or all the teams from the last five years, ranked them by runs/game (R/G) and then searched the stats that most closely correlate with it. I did this using the "CORREL" function in Excel, which generates a coefficient between 0 and 1. 1 means a perfect correlation. 0 means it is entirely random. The full results are at the bottom, but here is a summary. Those who are critical of the Pitch To Contact philosophy are usually reacting to the reduced emphasis it puts on striking people out. The K/9 correlation to runs per game is .54, one of the lower correlations on the list. That's lower than I would have expected. Clearly, having a staff that strikes out a ton of batters isn't especially important. The defenders of the Pitch To Contact philosophy like to say that it's essentially saying "throw strikes." Presumably, that would imply not walking people, something that the Twins have certainly emphasized. However, the correlation of BB/9 to R/G is about the same: .56. Like strikeouts, not walking players is good, but not great. Combing the two gets us a little closer. SO/BB has a .69 correlation. Close to that correlation is something else the Twins have been especially good at this year: not giving up home runs. HR/9 has a .65 correlation. But the winner, without question, is hits. H/9 has a correlation of .88, crazy high compared to the other traditional stats in the list. That might seem obvious - if you don't give up hits, you shouldn't give up runs. So the question changes....how do you avoid giving up hits? Well, it isn't just "strike people out". In fact, we proved just the opposite - that's fine, but a very small part of the story. So the difference is...defense? Luck? Secret sauce? The truth is we don't know what it is. Sabrmetrics is still remarkably poor at predicting pitching. But we know what it isn't - it isn't as easy as gathering Ks. And whatever philosophy one adopts, its goal better be limiting hits. ~~~ Here is a link to the spreadsheet to check things or play with it yourself: https://docs.google....dit?usp=sharing ~~~ And here are the final numbers.... Stat Correl R/G 1.00 R 1.00 ERA 0.99 ER 0.99 WHIP 0.93 H/9 0.88 H 0.86 ERA+ -0.81 BF 0.80 SO/BB -0.69 L 0.66 W-L% -0.66 W -0.66 HR 0.66 HR/9 0.65 tmSHO -0.65 SO -0.57 BB/9 0.56 SO/9 -0.54 #Pitch 0.54 BB 0.53 SV -0.53 IP -0.51 cgSHO -0.36 GF 0.32 CG -0.32 HBP 0.27 WP 0.27 BK 0.20 PitchAge -0.13 IBB 0.01 Click here to view the article

Steve, Sorry this article didn't initially get credited to you. It's fixed now.

It isn’t just for reading. That’s the difference. When I first started blogging in January of 2002, I went something like six solid months with less than 20 people reading my thoughts on a daily basis. That’s the dirty secret about blogging that both supporters and critics don’t get: it’s easy to do, but very hard to get enough readers so that anybody notices. Download attachment: TD Front Page.jpg When I find out that someone has blogged, they have instant credibility. Sure, anyone can write. But to do so consistently, and make it insightful and entertaining without payment or promise of payment or even any hope that what you’re doing is going anyplace beyond dissolving into the ether – I want to know these people. That is a story of faith. And passion. And dammit, nobility. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Which is why it kills me that it may be harder to blog now than it was when I started. At least then it was new and fresh. Now it’s so loud out there, I don’t know how any new voice ever gets heard. And I’m as guilty of the deafness as anyone. I simply can’t keep up with all the Twins blogs that have sprouted up only to go silent. That’s why TwinsCentric is very proud to announce the launch of TwinsDaily.com. We’re each setting aside our independence to start a central site where you can find (for free, mind you) all our stories. But the site isn’t just for reading. There are two other very important pieces. First, in the hope of resurrecting the spirit of the old Dickie Thon Twins Board we’re including a forum where you can discuss all kinds of Twins topics. All we ask is that you register so we have some accountability for the discussions, and that you keep it civil. We’re all on the same team. Second, when you register, you get a blog. You can ignore it if you want, or you can try out your voice. If your post is good, we’ll find room for it on the front page. And if it’s bad? Well, then we won’t. But at the very least you’ll be trying to find your identity where thousands of Twins fans are stopping by each day. TwinsCentric has worked on several magazines, books and e-books over the last couple of years, but I think it’s safe to say that we’re more excited about this than any of them. This is a site we want to exist: a local place where Twins fans can gather, read, share and write. If that sounds great, then please swing by. And if it sounds too over the top, swing by anyway, because that’s exactly what we want it to be. Thanks, TwinsCentric P.S. If you’re looking for a good place to start, stop by the front page or check out our one-minute cheat sheet. Click here to view the article

Every year USA Today examines the salaries of the Major League Baseball teams and their players and publishes them. Let's see that their numbers tell us about the Twins recent payroll cut.... Download attachment: iStock_000003652779Small-baseball-cash-300x199.jpg Swimming Upstream Twins payroll went from $112.7M last year to $94.1M this year, a decrease of $18.6M or 17%. Overall, MLB payrolls increased 6%. If the Twins payroll from 2011 would have increased 6%, the payroll would have been $119.5M, $25.4M more than actual level. Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Joe Nathan are making $25M this year with their new teams. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Prince Fielder is making $23M with the new contract he signed with the Tigers. The top 3 free agent pitchers this year – CJ Wilson, Yu Darvish and Mark Buehrle – all have contracts that are back-loaded or, in Darvish’s case, come with significant money going back to his Japanese club. Because of that, those three are making less than $25M this year combined. Not Alone The Twins were not the only team to cut payroll. 13 of 30 MLB teams cut payroll. For instance, the Yankees cut payroll, too. They went down $4.7M to $197.9M, which is still $100M more than the Twins. However, the Twins had the fourth biggest cut in payroll in dollars, and the fifth biggest cut in payroll by percentage. But the Twins were not the AL Central’s biggest cut. That honor goes to the White Sox, who cut their payroll $30.8M. They’re still the second biggest spenders in the AL Central. The Twins are 3rd, $2.8M behind the Sox. The Rise Of The Midwest Of the top five teams with the greatest boost to payroll, three of them are in the AL Central. Fifth is the Kansas City Royals, whose payroll rose from $36.1M to $60.9M, which is still $34 million less than the Twins. That 69% increase represented the second biggest percentage increase in MLB. Fourth is the Detroit Tigers, who increase payroll $26.6M to $132M. Almost all of that can be attributed to signing Prince Fielder. And second is the Cleveland Indians, who spent an extra $29.2M to raise to $78.4M. The Miami Marlins, who moved into a new ballpark, had the largest increase, both in pure dollars and by percentage. Their payroll increased by $61M, more than doubling their payroll last year. Click here to view the article

I may have exaggerated a little. I know – shocking for a blogger. Download attachment: Zach_Greinke_600-321.jpg For months I’ve been saying that this free agent class of pitchers is almost historically deep. That might be a little strong, unless you think history only goes back as far as 2007. Because based on the dollars that were thrown around, 2006-2007 was an unbelievably lucrative free agent starting pitching market – for the players. It didn’t work out nearly as well for the owners. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The top two contracts given out that year were unmitigated disasters. San Francisco is still trying to get out from under the $126M contract they gave Barry Zito while the Red Sox are finally finished with the $100+M they paid to get Daisuke Matsuzaka. Those two contracts are legendarily bad, and that’s NOT an exaggeration. But the next two were almost equally dismal. The Royals invested $55M in Gil Meche, though he saved them some of that when he voluntarily retired only four years into the deal. The next biggest deal went to Jason Schmidt, who made $47M and pitched only 43.1 innings. (Read that last sentence again.) And it didn’t stop there. The majority of the pitchers who signed for big money struggled and there were a lot of them: nine pitchers signed guaranteed deals for at least $20M. The teams may have figured out something since then. In the five years since, only eleven pitchers have reached that $20M level. No class since has had more than three pitchers reach that plateau. In fact, no class has had more than seven pitchers even get $10 million contracts. Or it could be that the pitchers since just haven’t been that good. For instance, last year was the year those seven pitchers got at least $10M. The market had three big names – CJ Wilson, Yu Darvish and Mark Buehrle. But beyond them, there wasn’t much. Hiroki Kuroda got a one-year, $11M deal from Yankees. Three others got $10+ million contracts, but they were all for multiple years, so the fifth, sixth and seventh biggest deals went to Aaron Harang ($6M/year), Chris Capuano ($5M/year) and Wei-Yin Chen ($3.8M/year). Did you just say “Who?” Exactly. If you’re looking for a thin market for starting pitching, the last five years qualify. This year is different. There are as many as 11 pitchers who could garner a $20M offer from a team. In the first draft of TwinsCentric’s Offseason GM Handbook (which you’ll be able to order soon, I promise), I count six that are virtually locks to make that money There are five more that might, and each will almost certainly get at least $10 million guaranteed. That’s deeper than any class since 2006. But it’s deeper still than that. Because after those guys there are another dozen pitchers who qualify as “innings eaters” or “intriguing gambles” which are the domains in which the Twins are most likely to dabble. Scott Baker belongs in the latter category and ranks 22nd overall on our list. By comparison, there were only 18 starting pitchers last year that signed major league contracts – and that was the most since 2006-2007. So, yes, I might have exaggerated a little in the past, so I’ll try and be a little more precise. (John Dyer-Bennett would have wanted it that way.) Right now, this year’s free agent starting pitching class looks to be the best group we have seen in at least five years. It is also flush with mid-level talent, going at least 20 to 25 players deep. And I’ll go a step further. If the Twins were trying to time find an offseason where average starting pitching would be available at a discount, they couldn’t have done a much better job. (Provided they actually spend some money.) ~~~ Click here to view the article

Download attachment: environment.jpg Aaron and John discuss the Minnesota Twins spring invitees, the rest of the available free agents, Aaron's reason for going to New Zealand, Hammerheart's smokey experiments, John's brilliant baseball tournament, what happened to a bunch of ex-Twins, Aaron's bucket list and one million reasons to love you crazy listeners. You can listen by clicking below, or download us from: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Span_Denard-600-321.jpg Aaron and John record an emergency podcast to talk about the trade sending Denard Span to the Nationals for pitching prospect Alex Meyer, what it means for Chris Parmelee, how Span went from prospect bust to underrated big leaguer, why letter grades for prospects can lead to arguments, dropping Deolis Guerra from the 40-man roster, adding Jeff Clement for Triple-A depth, and why Hulkamania will never die. Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

It's been really hard to keep up on all the great blog entries that members have been creating the last few days. If you're ready to dive past the top stories and swim in the deep end, check these out....Download attachment: Deep%u0025252Bend.jpg [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The New Britain Rock Cats are off to a great start, and Twins Fan From Afar blog has been all over them. The includes a great comeback, reliever Deolis Guera's fantastic start and also some research on how Joe Mauer had hit with runners in scoring position. Liriano will skip a start, but Cody Christie wonders what the next steps are and who else it would affect. Who else have the Twins drafted and not signed (similar to Clete Thomas) and how are they doing? Jnygaard gives us a list. Minneapolis does have a 3rd place team in town. It's the Gophers. Shanwahl gives us a Big Ten Update, along with his top draft prospects in the Big Ten. Fire Dan Gladden looks at how Twins have reacted to both the slow start and the last decade of winning. He wonders if our reaction might depend on whether we focus on The Ride of the Glory. Finally, shawntheroad reviews the minor league career of Wednesday night's Twins starting pitcher, Liam Hendriks. Click here to view the article

The Rays finally found a way to beat the Twins on Thursday afternoon: just don't let them score. Eventually, that worked, but it wasn't until the top of the ninth inning that the Rays pushed across the game's lone run, winning 1-0. Download attachment: francisco-liriano-no-hitter.jpg It didn't have to be that way. The Twins threatened in the first inning, when Denard Span singled and then nabbed his first of two stolen bases. Trevor Plouffe then coaxed a walk for an early scoring opportunity. But on a 3-1 pitch, Joe Mauer lined weakly to left field which held the runners. Justin Morneau flew to center and Josh Willingham grounded to shortstop and then early rally was stifled. Twins pitchers nearly matched the Rays. Francisco Liriano threw the first three innings, striking out five and walking none, while giving up just one hit. Liam Hendricks, Scott Diamond and Daryl Thompson then worked scoreless inning. Jeff Manship struck out the side in the seventh inning. Brendan Wise got the Twins through the eighth inning. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Twins pitcher Carlos Gutierrez started the ninth inning with a strikeout and ground out, but walked Hak-Ju Lee on four pitches. Lee then stole second. Gutierrez still should have got out of the inning, but Luke Hughes, who was playing his first game since rehabbing a shoulder injury, had a throwing error that plated Lee and kept the inning alive. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: neon-bar-sign.jpg Aaron and John's Minnesota Twins podcast visits a bar for sale. Then they talk about Aaron Hicks historic struggles, their move to KFAN, what went right for the Twins this week, conficting explanations for how the Twins ended up with a low-K pitching staff, Oswaldo Arcia's role this week, what makes Aaron curl into the fetal position, misperceptions about the infield, batting practice misfires, charging the mound and #42. Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Or click below to listen. Click here to view the article

~ Sponsored by Switch My Trip ~ Download attachment: Gibson_Kyle_followthru_US_720.jpg Maybe the Twins knew what they were doing when they brought Kyle Gibson north from spring training. The Twins switched their plan by including Gibson on the roster and he switched around the direction of their homestand. They had signed four free agent pitchers over the last two years to fill the five spots in their starting rotation. That left one spot. Officially, Gibson was one of the candidates, but by no means the favorite.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The competition was supposed to be between three pitchers – Vance Worley, Scott Diamond and Sam Deduno – all of whom were out of options, meaning they would need to be offered free of charge to other teams if they didn’t make the Twins roster. Gibson was not out of options, so the Twins could send him to AAA without fear of losing him. Instead, by the last week of March, Worley had been traded, Deduno had been moved to the bullpen and Diamond had been been demoted to AAA-Rochester. Gibson and his 2.20 spring ERA were traveling with the club to chillier climes. The colder weather has suited him. He won his first start of the year in Cleveland when it was 36 degrees with a 24mph wind. ~ The Twins are looking to switch things around this year. Every week, Metro Transit recognizes a Twins player who successfully switched the outcome of a game for the better. ~ But it’s his second start that garners the “Switch of the Week” award. The Twins had started their opening 2014 homestand 0-3 with the starting pitcher shouldering most of the blame in each of the three losses. One by one the free agents had dug the team an early hole. Kevin Correia had given up five runs in the first three innings of the home opener. Phil Hughes had given up four runs before the Twins got their first at-bat in the second game of the season. Mike Pelfrey gave up five runs in his first four innings on Thursday afternoon. Gibson started down that road: a wild pitch led to a run in the first inning. But he limited the damage and then held the line for the next five innings while the offense rallied for seven runs to put the game safely away. He thus earned his second win in two starts, tying the total he earned over 10 starts last year. He also kicked off a string of quality starts through the remainder of the Royals series. Whether it a happy coincidence or not, the Twins starting rotation has looked totally different since Gibson took the mound on Friday. It’s easy to be optimistic about his future. Before he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2011, Gibson was a top pitching prospect in the Twins minor leagues. After a year of recovery, his arrival last year was highly anticipated, which made the 6.53 ERA he posted that much more disappointing. But he was still recovering from the surgery, and approaching the team's innings limit for him when was recalled at the end of June. This year his arm should be more prepared for the challenges of a long major league season. But there are also indicators the suggest some caution. It’s unusual for a starting pitcher to have long-term success with a below average strikeout rate. Through two starts, Gibson’s sits at just 4.8, far below the league average of 7. It’s also unusual for a pitcher to have success if he’s walking nearly as many batters as he is striking out. Gibson has walked more (8) than he has struck out (6). So another switch isn’t out of the question, and it could be a switch for the worse. On the other hand, Gibson is a sinker ball pitcher – strikeout rate isn’t quite as important for a pitcher who relies on hitters hitting groundballs at his infielders. Whatever the future, though March and April, Gibson has been one of the Twins most pleasant surprises and most consistent starters, which is a switch that we all can embrace. ~~~ Why fight traffic and parking? Say ‘Switch My Trip’for the next Twins game. Metro Transit can provide you and your whole family a train ride to the game. Planning your trip is as easy as clicking on this link. Click here to view the article