John Bonnes

Third baseman and non-roster invitee Sean Burroughs reported to Twins spring training camp yesterday and apparently took some time to talk to reporters, as you'll find him in numerous stories today. That's not surprising.Download attachment: burroughs.jpg Burroughs is a good story - a Little League hero who rose to prize prospect, flamed out in 2007, fell into a life of substance abuse and returned to the majors as a bench bat last year. For now, it's a happy ending. For Twins fans, it has a chance to be happier still, because Burroughs has positioned himself to be in the right place at the right time. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]I was asked today how the Twins were the lucky team to sign someone with Burroughs’ upside to a minor league contract. The answer is a bittersweet one to Twins fans. Burroughs likely signed with the Twins because a lot could go wrong at the hot corner this year. Last year, a heap of unwanted attention was piled on Danny Valencia's defense, and when one plays for a manager like Ron Gardenhire, that's no small problem. But there was also the fact that the right-handed batting Valencia has simply not hit right-handed pitching, posting .242 batting average and just a 654 OPS in 660 plate appearances. For comparison, Nick Punto’s career OPS is 652. Considering right-handed pitchers account for 2/3 of the at-bats an everyday starter faces and suddenly Valencia’s future as a full-time player is in doubt. Enter Burroughs. Burroughs bats left-handed. Coincidentally, when speaking of Burroughs, Gardenhire specifically praised two areas in which Valencia has struggled: defense and clubhouse impact. ESPN 1500’s Phil Mackey asked Gardenhire about Burroughs and passed along the following quotes: It's unlikely last year’s third base responsibilities would change by Opening Day. But it's not totally crazy to think that Burroughs could find his way onto the 25-man roster. Two bench spots might be in play. Luke Hughes' status is up in the air given his shoulder problems. Burroughs could replace him, especially if he shows he can fill-in at second base in a pinch. And the Twins have enough redundancy at catcher, shortstop and center field that Gardenhire could use that last roster spot for a bench bat instead of a bench glove. But whether he makes it right now or not, this story isn't over. We don't know the plot twists that will take place yet this spring or summer, but there is plenty of opportunity for all involved to live happily ever after. Click here to view the article

The trade deadline is a significant event in Twins Daily’s calendar and now that it’s over, I thought we might give an update on how the community is faring.Download attachment: huddle.jpg We have 1923 registered users and 963 of them have contributed at least one post to the site.We have 2209 threads with 40,120 posts. Each month, the number of posts has been increasing by 24%.133 members have tried blogging and produced 1342 posts.Over 150,000 unique visitors have stopped by the site since we went live just over five months ago.On trade deadline day, we set a record for activity with 45,000+ page views. What’s more, on Friday we will pass our 3 millionth page view. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]We (actually, Brock gets all the credit for this ) have also rolled out a new mobile version of the site that we hope will help you keep in touch with the community even when you have to be away from your PC. I hope you’re all as thrilled with the scale of what is happening and are committed to making everyone feel welcome. The goal of this site was to make it easier for Twins fans to find great independent Twins writers and thinkers, regardless of the background and baseball beliefs. We’ve now reached 150,000 fellow fans who have read your posts and blogs three million times. So THANKS for continuing to share your passion and make this community an inviting baseball oasis. Please think about sharing it with friends or even strangers who are as passionate about the Twins as you are. Passions are best when they’re shared. And PLEASE don’t hesitate to share your thoughts/suggestions about the site in our Questions About Twins Daily forum. Blogs You would think we might be happy with 133 member blogs and 1342 posts. We are, but I believe we can do more - that there is a lot of hidden talent out there. So in our forum I’ve opened a thread talking about the establishment of a Twins Daily Writer’s Club. If you’re interested in writing more, please check it out and let me know of any ideas you might have. Click here to view the article

The Big Picture In the hyper-competitive NL East, the Braves are 4.5 games back of the division leading Nationals. But they’re also just one game back of the second wild-card spot, which happens to be shared by division rival New York Mets. Atlanta is reportedly searching for a top starting pitcher. That’s unusual ground for them – just last year they ranked 4th in MLB in ERA – but some injuries and regression by youngsters have them looking for rotation help.Download attachment: mike-minor.jpg [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Why They Will Trade With The Twins The Braves are somewhat like the Twins right now, with two solid starters – Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson – followed by a whole lot of finger-crossing. They’ve been linked to just about every possibly available starting pitcher on the market already. That includes Francisco Liriano. Braves scout Jim Fregosi (which are four words that should get ’93 Phils fans a little worked up) was at Sunday’s game, though he claimed the Braves weren’t interested in Liriano. But the best reason they match up with the Twins isn’t because of what they need as much as what they can offer – young pitching. One of the guys struggling in their rotation right now is 24-year-old left-hander Mike Minor, who is sporting a 6.20 ERA. But last year he struck out 99 batters in 100.2 inning in AAA, and almost matched that 1:1 ratio in 15 games in the majors. There are at least two other major-league-ready young pitchers that could be available for whoever can provide a high-end starter. Why They Won’t Trade With The Twins Pay a lot of attention to this next paragraph. Or don't, since I suspect I’m going to be repeating it in a lot of these profiles. It looks like there could be an awful lot of awful good starting pitchers available at the trade deadline this year. Yes, there could be a lot more “buyers” than “sellers,” but there are fewer buyers with the will or need to make a big trade for a starting pitcher. The Brewers are rumored to be fielding calls for both Zach Greinke and (if he gets healthy) Shawn Marcum. The Phillies have started calling teams about Cole Hamels. The Cubs will certainly listen to offers for Matt Garza. Liriano probably slots behind all of those guys and maybe among some other names like Seattle’s Jason Vargas. However, one thing that Liriano does have going for him to facilitate a trade to the Braves: he’s left-handed. Atlanta hasn’t indicated they have a preference, but the Nationals team they’re chasing is hitting just .233 vs southpaws this year, 3rd worst in the majors. Conclusion There are a lot of other teams that would like to add Liriano to their rotation, and there are a lot of other pitchers that could help the Braves. But the Twins and Braves make a good fit both in terms of what is given and what is received. Don’t be surprised if rumors surrounding these two teams get louder as the deadline approaches. Possible Trade Targets Mike Minor – LHP He’s just 24. He’s left-handed. He has very little service time. He was the seventh overall pick in the 2009 draft. And he has struck out 192 in 209 IP in the majors. But he’s sporting a 6.20 ERA this year (5.34 career) and is giving up WAY too many home runs. Sounds like an awfully good fit for Target Field. It’s a little hard to believe the Twins could get him straight up for Liriano, but perhaps they could include their own prospect to balance out the deal? Randall Delgado – RHP Here’s another one of the Braves promising pitching prospects that is struggling in the majors this year. Delgado’s problem this year has been control and that’s never been a particularly strong suit of his. But he’s just 21 years old and was rushed to the majors with only four starts in AAA. He also has 569 Ks in his 538 innings in the minors and a fastball that averaged 92.4 mph last year. Julio Teheran – RHP He’s one of the top pitching prospects in the minors with mid-90s stuff – and yet the Braves are looking for outside help? Yep. He’s just 21 years old. His strikeout rate in AAA doesn’t jump off the page and his brief callup last year (5.03 ERA w 10K and 8BB in 19.2 IP) was underwhelming. But again – he’s one of the top pitching prospects in the minors. And he’s in AAA. If the Braves don’t want to suffer through his growing pains, I know a team that will be happy to. A few more… Sean Gilmartin - LHP Stop me if this sounds like someone the Twins would like. Last year’s first round pick by the Braves projects as a middle of the rotation starter with outstanding control. The 6’2” southpaw is currently in AA. Zeke Spruill – RHP Also in AA, the 6’5” right-hander is positioning himself for a midyear promotion to AAA. With 63K in 98 IP, he doesn’t have outstanding stuff, but his control could make him a mid-rotation starter. Carlos Perez – LHP Only 19 and only in A-ball (again) and he’s not exactly thriving there. But he’s got a 90mph sinker that, if he can harness it, could rocket him up the ladder. He sounds a little bit like Liriano, actually. Arodys Vizcaino – RHP The 21-year-old fireballer rocketed through the organization to impact Atlanta’s bullpen last year. Unfortunately, it looks like that is his future, and it’s a future at least a year away as he was shelved for Tommy John surgery this March. Click here to view the article

I’m not particularly fond of how Minnesota treats its sports stars. The Puckett-like love affair is rare. More often, we pick nits. Kevin Garnett doesn’t score enough, or isn’t clutch enough. Joe Mauer doesn’t hit for enough power or doesn’t show enough leadership. Fran Tarkenton can’t win the big one, Harmon Killebrew is too quiet, Rod Carew is self-absorbed … the list goes on and on. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Download attachment: fans_boo-425x277.jpg (There are forces at work here that are slicker and far more powerful than subjective analysis. It feels like it has to do with the human need for entertainment, or drama, or our self-identity forcing us from one side to the other to find our niche. I have to believe some bright person has studied this – the ebbs and flows of fame in a celebrity culture. If anyone knows of any books on this, I’d love to hear about them.) I’ve defended Mauer consistently throughout his career. Most recently, it was an ongoing topic on the Gleeman and the Geek podcast for most of this offseason. The last time I wrote extensively about fan reaction to Mauer was just before his breakout 2009 season, in a story titled “I Was Promised Superstar.” If you have a minute, I think it’s worth the click. It recaptures the Mauer debate four years ago, and it’s funny how it has changed and how it hasn’t. What hasn’t changed is the “health” debate. That was a concern eight years ago, and it’s a concern now, though the early returns this year appear positive. Whatever preparation or medical treatments Mauer has undergone are paying off, but I wonder if the important change wasn’t one of philosophy. Prior to this year, there was a “Iron Horse” stubbornness about how often Mauer should play catcher, certainly fromh Mauer and possibly with the organization. Catching wears down a player. (In fact, we studied how that hurt Mauer’s performance a couple of years ago.) This year, he’s playing every day, but “resting” at first base and designated hitter. And the overall results have been good. The other debate that might benefit from a change in philosophy is the “power” debate. It seemingly went away in 2009 when Mauer hit 28 home runs on his way to the AL MVP award. It came back in 2010 when the Twins moved to Target Field and opposite field home runs became the stuff of fairy tales. In 2009, most of Mauer’s power was opposite field home runs. He’s hit just 14 home runs since the move to Target Field, and only two within its confines. To change that trend would require pulling the ball, a change that the uber-patient Mauer seems reluctant to even attempt. It’s also worth noting that while it’s fun to cite “Games Played” statistics and what he’s batting with runners in scoring position, the overall impact numbers like WPA show that the fans know better than stats. Mauer hasn’t had a particularly positive impact on games this year. Friday night’s game (in which he demonstrated some power with a double and triple) was what finally lifted him to an impact above “historically mediocre.” If you’re wondering why fans have booed Mauer, that might be explanation enough. He generated enormous expectations, cashed in on those enormous expectations, and in what should be his prime years he isn’t living up to them. Add to that a reluctance to change his philosophy, whether it be pulling the ball or swinging at a first strike. Finally, he’s also the face of a franchise – another role which he signed up for and for which he is richly compensated – which appears to be exiting its golden era. Add that up, and you get frustration, and frustration, not ignorance, is why fans boo. Click here to view the article

Even just looking back at the last 10 or so stories, I find several worth featuring. Download attachment: hope-08-600-b1.jpg Remember, if you're not checking out the blog page, you're missing a lot of up-and-coming independent baseball writers. This weekend's entries had a common theme: hope. Looking for some immediate hope? James Richter has it for you, and shows we have pretty short memories. Looking for more hope, but maybe a couple years down the road? Jim Crikket looks to Iowa and the latest series that top prospect Miguel Sano just had. If you're willing to look further in the distance (and much further away), Jnygaard looks at Puerto Rican prospects that the Twins might target in the amateur draft. Finally, if you're looking for hope in the unlikeliest of places, how about in Luis Perdomo's beard? Click here to view the article

Download attachment: baseball-in-snow.jpg Aaron and John talk about braving the blizzard in the name of podcasting, Anthony Swarzak's horseplay, Scott Diamond's setback, the Twins' pitching curse, Joe Saunders choosing "dollars and years" somewhere else, where the Twins' farm system ranks, reaching 500,000 downloads, bad mug shots, The Voice of Reason's evil twin, Lifetime Hockey's annual camp, and drinking vodka like water. Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe andthe podcast on iTunes.Or listen by clicking below....[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Tickle Me Pink.jpg Aaron sips a pink libation. John begs their listeners to take a quick survery for recruiting sponsors. Then they chat about whether Sam Deduno belong, whether the Twins can and should re-sign Scott Baker, how one characterizes the starting pitching market, Liam Hendriks first "W," the MLB television deal and what it means for the Twins payroll, the switch from Beloit to Cedar Rapids, and honors bestowed by Baseball America on some Twins prospects. Then they answer mailbag about the Minnesota Twins and compare blogging to podcasting. the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe andthe podcast on iTunes.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Download attachment: outfield_k_strikeout_signs_610x.jpg Aaron and John talk about once again rooting for the worst team in the league, why Francisco Liriano is like religion, what defines an "A" or "B" prospect in trade talks, how passing on Mark Appel makes even more sense now, celebrating our 50th episode, Matt Capps' return, Carl Pavano's non-return, Aaron's refined drinking habits, and a whole bunch of mailbag questions from listeners via Twitter. Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe andthe podcast on iTunes.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

If the Twins want to sign Francisco Liriano to an extension, it will need to be in the parameters of what Liriano will make on the free agent market this winter. But its hard to know even roughly how much he’ll command. Partly that’s because of his mercurial performance. But that problem is compounded by a free agent class that is unprecedented in pitching depth.Download attachment: liriano.jpg It starts with two 28-year-olds, right-hander Zach Greinke and left-hander Cole Hamels that are both better than anyone in last year’s class. They both could reach nine figure deals with yearly salaries that approach $20M per year. But the really remarkable variable about the free agent class is the next level. There is a glut of “potential” star pitchers and Liriano falls into that class. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Anibal Sanchez – The Marlins right-hander is just 28, and has thrown 195+ innings with a mid 3s ERA the last two years. He looks similarly strong this year. Shaun Marcum – The Brewers 30-year-old right-hander has a 3.56 ERA over the last three years and has averaged about 200 innings the last two of years. But lately he’s shelved with a sore elbow. Jake Peavy - The 2007 Cy Young winner has been injured a lot the past several years, but has finally regained his form with the White Sox with a 2.96 ERA (and 101 K). Colby Lewis – the Rangers right-hander who has struck out 455 batters and in 500 innings over the last 2.5 years – but who is now out with “forearm tightness”. Dan Haren – After posting an ERA of 3.08 over the last two years with the Angels, the 31-year-old right-hander struggled this year. He recently admitted he’s had lower back pain all season and may find the DL. His performance over the last couple of months may determine if the Angels pick up his $15M option. Ervin Santana – Like Liriano, Santana has had good years and bad years. The last two, where he threw 451.2 innings with a 3.65 ERA were very good years. This year, where he has a 5.12 ERA is not so much. He’s not even 30 yet. Liriano, who currently has 5.40 ERA and 76K in 76.2 IP slots in somewhere among these pitchers. He’s probably been the least consisten, but he’s also one of the youngest. He has never posted the inning totals that these guys have. But he’s also the only left-hander in this group. Finally, it’s also worth noting that I haven’t included a slew of other pitchers, some of whom might even be more enticing to teams looking for “inning eaters”: Kyle Lohse, Joe Saunders, Randy Wolf, Carl Pavano, Kevin Correia, Derek Lowe, Carlos Zambrano, Fausto Carmona and Daisuke Matsuzaka. So how much could Liriano expect, provided he continues to be effective? The guys I bullet pointed above could all expect multiyear offers for $10M+ per year any other year. Injuries and late season performances could change that. So could the depth of the market. Liriano would likely be on the low end of that group, but his age could be a factor in allowing a longer-term deal. Three years and $27M “feels” about right. But there are a ton of unknowns. If some teams really want a left-hander, he could go higher. If the market dries up after the first half dozen guys sign, he could go lower or for fewer years. Plus, there is his performance in July through September. If he wants to cash in now and avoid all that, one would think the price of an extension might be a little lower. But there is another lesson here too. The Twins, should they choose to spend some money, have a historically deep free agent class to rebuild their rotation. While the focus is likely to be Greinke or Hamels, there is a lot of value in that next tier – someone is going to fall out of that group and get a lower contract than we anticipate. And there are a lot of other average pitchers (such as Pavano) who might find themselves standing without a chair when the music stops. If the Twins choose to try and extend Liriano, they place their bet early. It might make more sense to wait until the market sorts itself out and be aggressive later. Click here to view the article

sponsored by Ticket King Download attachment: Cabrera_Miguel_Sliding_US_720.jpg Your first place Minnesota Twins? Not yet, but with Detroit coming to town retaining a one-game lead, you could be hearing that phrase as early as tonight. In fact, if you don’t hear it Friday night, you might need to wait a while, because the Tigers are bringing out their big guns for games two and three. Granted, it's a pitifully low standard, but a game for first place, even in April, allows a guy to fool oneself that it means something. That’s my #5 reason to grab a great seat to tonight’s game at Target Field . But there are more: Download attachment: AL Central Standings 2014-04-24.JPG #4 – Get ‘Em BEFORE They’re Hot The Tigers scored the second most runs in MLB last year. This year they’re 27th on that list. Read that last sentence again. To be sure, they had some defections from their lineup, starting with Prince Fielder, who was traded to Texas for Ian Kinsler - but Kinsler really replaces Omar Infante, who signed with the Royals. The Tigers also lost Jhonny Peralta and then lost his replacement, Jose Iglesias, for the season with stress fractures in both of his legs. Their team OPS is almost 50 points lower than they finished last year. But that OPS is still 732, which is slightly higher than the Twins 730 OPS, and would be good for eighth in MLB. Detroit’s real problem is that they have only hit .212 with runners in scoring position. Coincidentally (or not) that also ranks 27th in MLB. That’s not likely to continue. A team that’s hitting .265 overall (6th place) is likely to see their clutch hitting progress to the mean, and with it, their offense. A turn against the Twins starting rotation might be just the thing to spark them. So I'm getting a ticket for Friday, before the Tigers get hot. #3 – Avoid the Aces The Tigers have a hell of a poker hand, getting dealt three aces in Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez and Justin Verlander. The latter two will take the hill on Saturday and Sunday vs. Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson. I like a challenge as much as the next guy, but criminy…. Friday night’s game is a little more reasonable. Kevin Correia, who is the heavy favorite to win “Twins Man-crush Who They Will Angrily Justify Re-signing To A Stupid Contract This Offseason” Award, will face Rick Porcello. Porcello is no slouch – he’s sporting a nifty 3.15 ERA this year – but he also hasn’t won a Cy Young Award or ERA title yet. I’ll choose the game he starts. #2 – Sun > Rain I wouldn’t mind seeing Verlander pitch on Sunday, but there is no guarantee that we would see him pitch. Paul Douglas is describing it as “Cloudy and Soggy. I’ll take the highs of 65 on Friday and Saturday instead, thank you very much. #1 – The Offseason In Minnesota Is Long Download attachment: Fur Bomber Hat.JPG No, I’m not talking about the fact that the Twins season has basically been over by mid-August for the last three years. I’m talking about the insanely long and bitter winter, when wearing a Twins cap for any extended period of time leads to your ears CLIMBING INSIDE OF YOUR HEAD TO BEAT YOU ABOUT THE BRAIN REPEATEDLY. The Twins have a solution and it’s being given to the first 10,000 fans who show up to the Friday night game where the Twins take back the AL Central, however briefly. We’ll see you there. ~~~ It seems like Minnesota agrees with me. You're going to want to get your tickets early, because tickets are scarce for Friday's tilt, with the cheapest being $19 at TicketKingOnline.com. Saturday, you'll find a lot more, with tickets starting at $12, with plenty on the lower level. Or, if you're a gambler by nature (or happy to come back later in the year for a possible rainout) you can find tickets for Target Field on Sunday for just $7. Plus, if you use the promo code DAILYDOUBLE, you’ll be supporting Twins Daily and get 10% off. Whatever your needs, your local ticket supplier, Ticket King, can help. ~~~ Click here to view the article

Download attachment: 9225048-large.jpg Minnesota Twins fans finally have a mildly good reason to push the panic button. It wasn’t that Scott Baker was leaving the team – without an option year, his value the year after Tommy John isn’t particularly meaningful. It certainly isn’t that (gasp) other free agent starting pitchers are signing elsewhere – especially when only a handful have changed teams and there are an inordinate number of good starting pitchers on the market. And MOST OF ALL it isn’t that the Twins have dared to sign minor leaguers, which is business as usual for this time of year. But if you want to push it, go ahead. Because yesterday, the Atlanta Braves agreed to terms for center fielder BJ Upton. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]For Twins fans hoping for long-term upgrades to the Twins starting pitching staff, this is the worst news this offseason. The Braves have plenty of young (and affordable) pitching like that, and were in the market for 1) a center fielder and 2) right-handed power. What’s more, they had to be affordable, since the Braves are working on a corporate (inflexible) budget. Both Denard Span AND Josh Willingham had been floated in rumors from the Braves media entities, and it wasn’t out of the question that they could be attempting a blockbuster deal for both. Upton IS both. He’s a centerfielder, who hits right-handed and has hit 51 home runs over the last two years. And they got him for about $14M/year, which is just a couple of million more than Span and Willingham would have cost. Upton was the linchpin of the offseason for the Braves; he was the one player available to fill both needs at a reasonable price without trading away their starting pitching. The Twins and their fans will need to take solace in the cliché of the other broken-hearted: there are lots of other fish in the sea. There are. The Rays will need to replace Upton, the Phillies are actively courting center fielders and the Reds have been mentioned as a possible landing place for months. But the Braves represented the big one that got away. They were the single best option this offseason when trading for major-league-ready, affordable, young, top-half-of-the-rotation starting pitching. If the Braves had missed out on Upton, the Twins and Braves would have made stunningly good fits for each other. Without them interested, the Twins didn’t just lose one name from the “demand” side of the equation, they also lost their best trading partner. But at least Twins fans have found a reason to push the panic button in 3 …. 2 .... 1 …. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: winter-meltdown-pint.jpg Aaron and John talk about missing out on A.J. Pierzynski and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Joe Nathan going to Detroit, a Twins Daily event during TwinsFest that you won't want to miss, Liam Hendriks being dropped from the roster, podcasting from Hammerheart Brewing next week, Justin Morneau going to Colorado, what to make of Robinson Cano's contract, saying "I love you" to Amber, mailbag questions from listeners, podcast reviews from beautiful women, eating giant ice cream cakes at a bar, and being the bad boy of Minnesota Twins baseball bloggers. You can listen by clicking below,download us from iTunes or find it atGleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Download attachment: HIcks_Aaron_landscape.jpg Aaron and John talk about the Minnesota Twins' winning opening week, bouncing back from last week's podcast, what to make of Aaron Hicks' slow start, Glen Perkins' excellence and managing the bullpen, appreciating Roger Ebert, the upcoming "Tix For Tots" event, close games and late-inning heroics, Tyler Robertson's goodbye, and "The Running Man" coming true. Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Or click on the link below... Click here to view the article

Aaron and John podcast from Freehouse and discuss the Twins final roster decisions, Kyle Gibson’s opportunity, losing Vance Worley and Alex Presley, distinctive Fanny Bay oysters, Byron Buxton’s injuries, gimpy knees, expectations for the Twins lineup, roto-bird, Aaron’s new iPhone and the magic of Tinder. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Here's the breakdown:[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]0 Aaron’s Knee 4 KFAN 8 Freehouse 11 25-man roster 12 Kyle Gibson 13 Wrong Aaron 14 Sam Deduno 17 Losing Worley 21 Losing Presley 23 Oysters 28 Keeping Bartlett 33 Bullpen moves 35 More Barltett 40 Keeping Guerrier 41 Powered by Cheese Curds 42 Buxton’s injury 46 Embracing “youth” 49 Lineup over-under 50 Brian Dozier 54 Kurt Suzuki 56 Joe Mauer 60 Josh Willingham 64 Oswaldo Arcia 68 Jason Kubel 70 Trevor Plouffe 73 Aaron Hicks 75 Pedro Florimon 77 Josmil Pinto 78 Losing kids 81 $1000 burger 85 Aaron’s iphone 94 Tinder Click here to view the article

Sponsored by Ticket King [/hr]Download attachment: Darvish_Yu_Standing_US_720.jpg We're off by one crummy day. Such is the fickle nature of the baseball gods. Memorial Day has always been a special day for baseball in Minnesota, even before the Twins arrived. When the Minneapolis Millers and St. Paul Saints were the dueling minor league clubs in town, they would schedule home-and-away doubleheaders on Memorial Day, July 4th and Labor Day. Some of those games (and the ensuing brawls) were legendary. Monday's Memorial Day game at Target Field had a chance for that kind of excitement. The kids are off of school, the weekend chores are already done (right?) and they're even giving away 10,000 Kingsford grill tongs at the game. All that was needed was that premier pitching matchup.... And it's happening one day late. Tuesday night the Twins will send out developing ace Phil Hughes to face the Rangers perennial ace Yu Darvish. That, I'm afraid, is this series' hot ticket. If, like me, you're taking the family to see the Memorial Day game today, you might want to opt for bleacher seats in right field for a home run ball; Kevin Correia is squaring off against Rangers pitcher Nick Tepesch. Overview The truth is, you almost can't go wrong this week. Summer is truly here, and other than some chances of a thunderstorm, it looks gorgeous. It also helps that the word most used to describe the Rangers lately is "reeling." Or maybe"decimated." Both describe the recent news that slugging first baseman Prince Fielder will likely miss the rest of the year due to surgery on a herniated disk in his neck. It might not surprise you that the 275-pound Fielder has some spinal issues, and that might explain the significant dip in his stats over the last year-and-a-half. But Fielder has also been the model of durability, playing 547 consecutive games before being sidelined last week. It's rare that one would describe Fielder as a "tip" instead of an "iceberg," but in this case, it's true. His injury just adds to the plethora of injuries the Rangers have been facing. Three starting pitchers are hurt. Most of the infield has been out at one time or another. Four relievers are out, three of them possibly for the rest of the year. It's not hard to see the impact. Texas enters the series ranked 11th in runs scored in the American League and 11th in runs against. Their 25-25 record is still respectable, but it hides that they started the season 14-8, and have been sliding ever since. Even the GM, John Daniels, sounds a little defeated when he says quotes like "I haven’t ever been a part of anything like this — never across the board to this degree. You try to plan all offseason to give yourself depth. ... But there is a limit to how many premium innings you can replace, and how many premium offensive players you can replace. That sort of quote just breeds overconfidence, but the Rangers still stole a series from the Tigers this weekend, scoring a dozen runs in each of the last two games. The Twins have an opportunity to kick the Rangers while they’re down, and before they head to Yankee Stadium for a weekend series. Best take advantage of it. Yu vs Hughes At the very least, Rangers fans can look forward to every fifth day. Like Felix Hernandez last weekend, the Twins will get to face one of the very best pitchers in the American League on Tuesday night. Darvish sits near the top of the AL leaderboard in nearly every pitching category: ERA (2.35 - 3rd), strikeouts (73- 7th), WHIP (1.11 - 7th) and even WAR (2.4 - 2nd). Whether you like it or not,the Twins are getting to face a lot of very good pitchers this year. Let's not forget about Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, James Shields, Chris Sale and Justin Masterson, all in the AL Central. But even among the best, Darvish can lay claim to being a King of the Hill. An interesting question is whether we're watching a Twins pitcher grow into that elite class. Phil Hughes has been demonstrating the same promise he showed as a minor league prospect now that he has escaped from New York. Hughes started slowly; in his first three starts he only went five innings in each and gave up four earned runs in each. But over his last six starts, check out his stats next to Darvish’s last six: [TABLE=width: 250] [/TD] [TD]Hughes Darvish ERA 1.60 3.20 IP 39.1 39.1 WHIP 1.017 1.246 W-L 5-0 3-2 K 30 48 BB 1 15 HR 2 3 [/TABLE] Clearly, this is selective sampling. And Hughes may want to continue this trend for more than a month before we start comparing him to the best in the game. But there is hope that Tuesday night’s game could be close to a competitive affair. That’s not something that we could say too often over the last three years when a pitcher like Darvish came to town. [/hr]As one might expect, tickets are getting scarce for Target Field now that the weather is heating up. Now is when having a local ticket broker on your side makes a lot of sense. Monday's game still has good lower level seats available, but the cheap seats are gone. Believe it or not, the Darvish/Hughes duel still has some $6 tickets available. Wednesday night's prices look inviting, too. Finally, Thursday's Twins day game tickets are so good you can't afford TO go to work. All are an even better deal if you use the promo code DAILYDOUBLE, which will get you 10% off and supports Twins Daily. Whatever your needs, your local ticket supplier,Ticket King, can help. Click here to view the article

~~~ sponsored by Ticket King ~~~ Download attachment: Machado_Manny_Showalter_US_720.jpg OK, you can come out now. The bad weather has (mostly) passed. It’s going to be 60 degrees, one of the best young players in baseball will be visiting and Mike Pelfrey will not be pitching. That sounds like a pretty fair weekend to grab some great seats at Target Field. In fact, it sounds like a pretty fair weekend to all the Twins Daily guys, who will be attending Saturday’s game. (Say “Hi.”) Slogging Along It’s been a sluggish start for the Orioles who entered May with a .500 record, the first time they’ve started that “poorly” over the last three years. By May 1st last year, they were already five games over .500, just like they were the previous year. But in the AL East, it hasn’t hurt them. They are in second place in the packed division because the entire division is sluggish. As of Thursday, not a single team in the division had scored as many runs as their opponents. While the records for the teams vary between four games over to five games under .500, the run differential of all the teams are between -6 and -12. None have been good; none have been terrible. Download attachment: AL East stats.jpg Slippage The same can be said about the Orioles pitching and hitting. Neither is necessarily a dire problem, but neither is quite as effective as they were last year. Last year’s offense ranked fourth in the American League with 4.6 runs per game; this year’s lineup has slipped to seventh (4.5 runs per game). Last year’s pitching was sixth overall (4.38 runs against per game) while this year’s arms have slipped to ninth (4.75 runs per game.) And remember: last year’s Orioles didn’t make the playoffs. The team got a mix of good news and bad news this week offensively. The positive news was the activation of Manny Machado on Thursday. The 21-year-old is a rising superstar in major league baseball, a mix of power, speed, defense and youth that might be the most coveted third baseman in baseball right now. However, on Sunday, slugger Chris Davis was placed on the DL with an oblique injury. Davis crushed 53 home runs last year, including one at Target Field. Barring a postponed game, he won’t go yard here this year; this is the Orioles only scheduled trip to Minnesota. Sloppy Starts Download attachment: Nishioka_Tsuyoshi_Error_US_720.jpg Baltimore’s offense could use a boost because a few players in the lineup are really struggling. Twins fans might be surprised to hear that one of them is JJ Hardy, who the Twins traded to the Orioles three years ago to make room for (cringe) Tsuyoshi Nishioka. (And if you think I mentioned Nishi just so I could include this picture on the right, you could not be more correct. Let's admire it again, shall we?) Anyway, Hardy's hitting just .242 with no home runs and a .258 on-base percentage. He’s also been battling a hamstring strain that kept him out of the lineup last week. He should play this weekend, but hopefully his turnaround will wait until after the Orioles leave town. Ditto that sentiment for pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez. Jimenez was signed to a $50M contract this offseason to help anchor the top of the rotation. He’s been an anchor alright: 0-4 with a 6.59 ERA entering Friday’s night’s start versus Ricky Nolasco. Jimenez’s control has been brutal this year, walking seventeen batters in 27 innings. That’s also led to relatively early exits: he has yet to get more than six innings of outs. ~~~ If you would like to see Manny Machado up close, I see row 2 and row 3 seats right be third base available for Friday’s game. Saturday you can bake in the sun for the whole game in Section 125. And on Sunday, I’d consider the $17 tickets in Section 240, so I can watch the Twins for two hours and then retire to the nearby Town Ball Tavern to watch the Wild at 3:00. All are an even better deal if you use the promo code DAILYDOUBLE, which will get you 10% off and supports Twins Daily. Whatever your needs, your local ticket supplier, Ticket King, can help.~~~ Click here to view the article

Download attachment: tumblr_l8eexgsw341qa1id2o1_500.jpg I’m having trouble getting into the second round of the playoffs. I don’t really want either the Yankees or the Tigers to make the World Series, which means I can’t even root for the American League. The official team of The Voice Of Reason™ - the Phillies – is also out for the first time in years. But mostly I’m ready for the next act. The offseason. Oddly, I don’t think I’ve looked forward to an offseason this much in years. For starters, it’ll be nice to see what a Terry Ryan can do when he’s in charge right from the beginning. Also, there is at least a 50-50 chance that we see a long-time Twin player traded. We get to (hopefully) watch a rotation be built via the deepest free agent starting pitching market in several years. There is even a Twins prospect already strutting his stuff in the Arizona Fall League. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] (I’ll admit, there are also some personal reasons I’m excited for the offseason too. At the top of the list is Twins Daily. Being able to count on a Twins story every day, and being able to jump read and discuss all the rumors and implications of trades and signings is going to be awesome. Second is Gleeman and the Geek. I really enjoyed getting together with Aaron Gleeman on a weekly basis, throw back some beers and talk baseball for a few hours.) So let’s look ahead to what we can expect…. October 24th – The release of the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook. (Also, the 1st game of the World Series.) The End of the World Series – Eligible players can file to become free agents. (Also, when the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook 30% discount expires.) Sixth day after the World Series – Free agent market opens. Teams can sign free agents. December 3-6 – Baseball’s Winter Meetings, which means plenty of trade talk. December 6 – Rule 5 Draft January 25-27 – Twins Fest If this year is anything like last year, expect Terry Ryan to move fairly quickly. Last year he had almost everything wrapped up by Christmas, signing… Jamey Carroll on November 16thRyan Doumit on November 23rd Matt Capps on December 6th Josh Willingham on December 15th Jason Marquis on December 22nd Joel Zumaya on January 18th There is a man after my own heart. Not only does he make moves fast, but he has the decency to do so on a weekly basis so I can spread them out over winter’s worth of podcasts. Click here to view the article

The Big Picture The Pirates are in first place at the All-Star Break. Oops - hold on. I didn’t say that with the right emphasis. Let me try again. The PIRATES are in FIRST F*$%ING PLACE at the ALL-STAR BREAK.Download attachment: 1306360928-87.jpg Wha? How? That’s a fair question, considering their offense has scored 345 runs this year, 21st in the majors. The answer is that their pitching and defense has been outstanding, resulting in the 5th best team ERA in the league. Why They Will Trade With The Twins For starters, they’re “in a buying mode” according to their manager. And they’re looking for offense. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] You can almost throw a dart and find a spot in the lineup that needs improving. That said, the Pirates leadoff spot has been terrible this year, with a combined .228 batting average and .272 on-base percentage. That OBP ranks 29th in the major leagues. Recently they turned leadoff duties to a guy they just picked up off of waivers. It’s that bad. Denard Span probably wouldn’t play center field in Pittsburgh because their center fielder, Andrew McCutcheon, is having an enormous year. However, left fielder Jose Tabata was just sent down to AAA. He’ll be back because he signed a six-year deal with the Pirates, but there is also right field, where Twins castoff Garret Jones is platooning with …well, its not clear day-to-day that there is a good option for the other half of that platoon. Or that Jones wouldn’t just be better served off the bench. So Span fills a desperate need, improves the Pirates corner outfield defense and does so long-term at a reasonable salary, which is always a factor for the financially strapped Steel City. Why They Won’t Trade With the Twins Lately, they’ve been tied to two much bigger names: Justin Upton of the Diamondbacks and Carlos Quentin of the Padres. But the Pirates don’t seem to match up well with the Diamondbacks, according to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. As for Quentin, the Pirates would probably love to have him bat behind McCutcheon to protect the budding superstar, but Quentin is also a free agent at the end of the year. And there are several other teams in on Quentin, including the Reds who the Pirates are trying to fend off. So it might come down to which the Pirates prefer – big and gone or steady and staying. Or Span could be a defensive move if the Reds get Quentin. Or the Pirates could decide one doesn’t preclude the other. It shouldn’t. This lineup needs plenty of help. Conclusion The trade market may sort itself out very late this year as teams take as much time as they can to see if they are “in it” or not. Of the possible fits for the Pirates, Denard Span is near the top of the list. And as you can see below, the Pirates have plenty of pitching. There are reasons for optimism here. Trade Targets Jameson Taillon – RHP He’s a 20-year-old blue chip starting pitching prospect whose numbers (High A - 4.05 ERA and 73K in 86.2 IP) don’t reflect his stuff. Pittsburgh have instructed him to command his fastball rather than striking out hitters with his breaking ball. I’m sure the Twins will ask about him. I doubt they’ll get him, unless the bidding turns fierce. Jeff Locke – LHP Locke had a similar year to Liam Hendriks in 2011. He showed a lot of promise in AA, made just five starts in AAA and then was promoted as a September callup. Not too surprisingly, he was disappointing. This year the Pirates are stashing the 24-year-old left-hander in AAA to be used as major league filler and he’s having a very good year: 2.92 ERA, 84K and 23 BB in 95.2 IP. The looks to me like a middle-of-the-rotation arm that could be ready as soon as the fall, which is a nice fit for the Twins. (But then I still feel the same way about Hendriks.) Thanks to Jeremy Nygaard for this next name... Kyle McPherson – RHP He’s 24, and started the year late in AA because of a shoulder problem, but there is no reason to think he’ll stay there long. He dominated AA the second half of last year en route to being the Bucs minor league pitcher of the year. He’s got a good strikeout rate and excellent control – exactly the kind of guy the Twins would target. Baseball America ranked him as the 6th best prospect in the Pirates system this year. Luis Heredia – RHP A 6’ 6”, 18-year-old, high-upside (his fastball is already in the low 90s) pitcher who is still several years away from the majors and will be limited to rookie ball this year. Stetson Allie – RHP Here’s a wild card – emphasis on “wild.” The 21-year-old right-hander was the Bucs second round pick just a year ago. Unfortunately, his 100 mph fastball doesn’t do anyone any good if it can’t find the plate. Recently, it got bad enough that they demoted him to rookie ball - and had him switch to third base. If the Twins think they can “fix” him, like they did Alex Wimmers, maybe he could be an interesting secondary piece to fill out a trade package. Click here to view the article

"We have holes. And some of it is pitching, and some of it is not. There are other areas we need to address." - Minnesota Twins GM Terry Ryan as reported by Phil Mackey Download attachment: 6.jpg The Twins rotation currently ranks 29th in the majors in ERA and 28th in innings pitched. But Ryan is right – they aren’t the only sore spot that will need to be addressed this offseason. The decision to promote and play Tsuyoshi Nishioka at second base highlights one such area. The Twins rank 29th in the majors in OPS(On Base Plus Slugging) from that position. Even if their best option, Jamey Carroll, had played there the entire season, his OPS would only rank 25th. Similarly, the shortstop position ranks 27th overall. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The Twins are likely to use the rest of the year to further evaluate this offseason’s priorities. They might start be looking at where each position ranks offensively versus the rest of the league: [TABLE=width: 244] [/TD][TD=align: center]OPS [TD=align: center]MLB Rank[/TD] Left Field[TD=align: center]938[/TD] [TD=align: center]2[/TD] Catcher[TD=align: center]822[/TD] [TD=align: center]5[/TD] Designated Hitter[TD=align: center]845[/TD] [TD=align: center]8[/TD] Third Base[TD=align: center]765[/TD] [TD=align: center]11[/TD] Center Field[TD=align: center]718[/TD] [TD=align: center]17[/TD] First Base[TD=align: center]749[/TD] [TD=align: center]19[/TD] Right Field[TD=align: center]692[/TD] [TD=align: center]25[/TD] Shortstop[TD=align: center]575[/TD] [TD=align: center]27[/TD] Second Base[TD=align: center]571[/TD] [TD=align: center]29[/TD] [/TABLE] 2B – Let’s start with the worst and get more optimistic. Most of the damage has been done by Alexi Casilla whose overall OPS is 580, which is one hundred points below his OPS last year and 50 points below his career OPS. He’ll likely get better, if he hasn’t already played himself out of the picture. (Again.) SS – Either you believe Brian Dozier will get better or you don’t. I think he will. He certainly needs to. RF – Even if Ben Revere had all the at-bats here, his 738 OPS would only rank 22nd. However, according to Ultimate Zone Rating, he has also saved another 10 runs with his glove. Using WAR, which tries to include defensive value, he ranks 12th overall. 1B – Parmelee (667 OPS) and Mauer (752 OPS) are responsible for about 40% of the at-bats here. CF – The Twins have only given 15 at-bats to players other than Revere and Denard Span in center field. Those players have gone 0 for 15, which drags down the number about 20 points. 3B – Imagine where the Twins would rank if Danny Valencia and his 522 OPS hadn’t eaten up about 1/3 of the at-bats this season. DH – The at-bats have been split four ways, but Ryan Doumit gets most of the credit. His OPS is 939 as a designated hitter, just 766 as a catcher. C – Not that the Twins two-headed catching monster isn’t working well. They only rank behind St. Louis (Yadier Molina), Milwaukee ( Jonathan LuCroy), San Francisco (Buster Posey) and Philadelphia (CHOOOOCH!) LF – Speaking of monsters, ladies and gentlemen, Josh Willingham, version 2012. Certainly, the Twins pitching has been an issue. But Ryan is correct to not overlook the uneven production from the lineup, too. Click here to view the article

Let's see if Twins Daily can do some good.... Download attachment: Fifteens-Glen3.jpg Next Sunday, the 12th, Twins pitcher Glen Perkins and his wife Alisha are organizing a 5K in downtown Minneapolis to raise money for the fight against cyctis fibrosis (CF). The whole Bonnes family is joining in, so if you would like to run with us at our glacial (or at your own) pace, sign up at their site and then let me know in the comments below and we'll work out a meeting place. For those who can't make it, please consider sponsoring my run. This is the first time the Twins Daily community has tried something like this, but I suspect that with so many members contributing daily to the site, they'll also contribute to such a good cause. My goal is just $150, and I'd rather have 150 members contribute $1 than five contribute $30 so know that whatever you can throw in is appreciated. Please Sponsor John's Cystic Fibrosis Run Here is some more information... [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The Race The race starts at 8 AM at the Metrodome, winds around downtown and ends at Target Field, and "along the course you will learn about Glen's journey from playing college games at the Metrodome for the U of MN to MLB games at Target field. You will climb the ladder up from rookie ball to the big leagues just like this Minnesotan did." You can pick up your race packet that morning starting at 7AM or on Friday or Saturday in St. Paul. The Swag You also get a medal at the end if you finish. You also get a t-shirt and tickets to Sunday's game vs the Rays, too. Finally, if you dress up like a Twins player (wear a jersey?) there will be items signed by Minnesota Twins players given away randomly at the finish line. The Disease Cystic fibrosis is a devastating genetic disease that affects the lungs and digestive system. More than ten million Americans are symptomless carriers of the defective CF gene. It is passed down through families and causes thick, sticky mucus to build up in the lungs, digestive tract, and other areas of the body. It is one of the most common chronic lung diseases in children and young adults. It is a life-threatening disorder. So let's see what we can do. If you can spare a couple of clicks and a few dollars, please sponsor my run next Sunday. If you can make it yourself, even better. Thank you in advance for all your generosity and involvement. I continue to believe that Twins Daily is a community that can do outstanding things. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: 300px-IMG_0635.JPG We interrupt your fun for a gentle reminder…. Twins Daily prides itself on the community of fans it serves, and understands that the forums, comment sections and blogs are central to their participation and the health of the site. We strive for civil, insightful and passionate discourse that welcomes and challenges all our members and readers. As such, comments of this nature are not allowed: 1. Personal attacks or insults towards other commenters, the post author, journalists, teams, players, members of baseball organizations or agents. (You can be critical, but not personal.) 2. Inappropriate language, including swearing and related censor bypass attempts, lewdness, and crude terms for body parts, bodily functions, and physical acts. Overall, we don’t want any language that a parent would not want their kid to see. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] 3. Juvenile comments or extensive use of text message-type spelling. 4. Copying entire stories from elsewhere on the internet. 5. Comments about how you're sick of this topic or it's not newsworthy. 6. No inappropriate avatars or images are allowed. 7. Anything else we deem bad for business. 8. Spam. (This will result in an immediate and permanent ban.) 9. Alternate (alt) accounts. If you attempt to bypass a moderator ban by creating a second account or if you create a second account whose sole purpose is to incite an argument, all accounts (and your IP address) will be permanently banned from Twins Daily. We invite members to notify us if any comments violate these guidelines so we can take appropriate action, rather than police it (or worse, angrily react) in the comments section. Each comment has a small icon shaped like a triangle with an exclamation point in it. By clicking on this icon, community members can easily notify us of possible violations. Breaking the rules will result in deleted posts and bans. Attempts to circumvent bans will results in all accounts being permanently banned (along with their IP address). Both Twins Daily’s founders and the community consider this policy to be a fundamental responsibility for keeping this community healthy and active. This post will remain visible on the "About Twins Daily" page so it is always accessible. In addition, we’ll feature this story on a semi-regular basis as a reminder. Thank you for your understanding and commitment. Now, back to play time…. Click here to view the article

Brian Dozier turns 25 next Tuesday. Download attachment: red-fancy-xmas-gifts-800-805667.jpg That’s not young for a prospect. This spring he barely made the cut of Baseball America’s top 10 Twins prospects. Above him on that list were Chris Parmelee (who is hitting .203), Liam Hendriks (who is being demoted to AAA-Rochester) and Joe Benson (who was demoted yesterday to AA-New Britain yesterday). He has never hit even double-digits home runs in his minor league career. Prior to this year, he was never a fulltime shortstop in the minors. Anticipation, especially prolonged anticipation, can really skew expectations. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Dozier has been talked about since the middle of last year by manager Ron Gardenhire. At the time, Gardenhire was also desperate for anything resembling a competent middle infielder. If you’re especially optimistic about Dozier’s debut this week, that prolonged anticipation is likely the cause, more so than any promise he’s shown in the minor leagues. Along with his other challenges, he will likely be dealing with inflated expectations. But there may be a bigger challenge. Dozier is likely being rushed. After spending three years navigating through rookie ball, A-ball and AA-ball, he’s had all of a month at AAA. He hasn’t posted particularly impressive numbers at that level: .276 average, one home run and two stolen bases, though he’s shown good control of the strike zone. And it’s not like he’s caught fire recently – he’s hit about .200 over the last several weeks after a hot start. Finally, promoting Dozier now is an odd move financially. Major League clubs will often wait until the first couple of weeks in June to promote a prospect so he doesn’t reach arbitration a year early as a “Super 2”. What does that mean? The short answer is that if Dozier succeeds as a starting shortstop, the Twins will need to pay him a million dollars extra or more per year from 2015 through 2018, just so they could call him up a few weeks early this year. So why now? Initially, the answer seems obvious: in a lost season, why not play the youngsters? But if that’s the philosophy, then why is Liam Hendriks being sent back to Rochester? Why can’t Trevor Plouffe find his way into the lineup? And why not give Dozier another four weeks in Rochester to regain his stroke and lower his future compensation? Instead, the answer seems to be the opposite. Dozier is coming up because things are getting desperate. He’s a lottery ticket, or maybe a more apt analogy would be that he’s a Christmas present that the manager (and maybe the organization) is anxious to open. That’s fun, but it’s worth noting just how often that has backfired on the Twins in the last year. The fast-rising Hendriks made all of nine pitching starts in AAA, didn’t have much success and then struggled in the majors until he was demoted again. Ben Revere spent just a few weeks in AAA where he had trouble getting on base, did the same in extended time in the majors, and is back in Rochester. Chris Parmelee, after a strong September and spring training, skipped Rochester entirely and now has 20 strikeouts and four walks. One might think that with that recent track record, an organization might be a little more conservative in their callups. Instead, the Twins are rushing a mid-level prospect to the majors to help save the season. I hope they (and Dozier) enjoy the moment. But it would sure be nice if this present wasn’t returned. Click here to view the article

The Big Picture Stop me if this sounds familiar. A team with championship aspirations faces a slew of injuries to their best players. They find themselves last in their division but hope that the players return will boost them back into contention. At the trade deadline they must make a tough decision: stick to the plan or write off a season in a championship era whose window could be closing. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Download attachment: fjFbTCy9.jpg Yep - the Phillies are having the year the Twins had last year. But instead of a fan base of Minnesota stoics, they play in the City of Brotherly Love. You can imagine how pleasant that is. Why They Will Trade With The Twins The Phillies are walking a delicate line. Despite injuries to superstar second baseman Chase Utley, first baseman Ryan Howard and ace pitcher Roy Halladay, the Philadelphia is only six games under .500 and just 5.5 games back of the wild card. They hope to have Utley back on Wednesday, Howard beginning a rehab assignment this week and Halladay returning in the middle of July. If they get healthy, and the Phils simply tread water for the next month, it will be awfully hard for them to give up on the season. Traditionally, the Phillies have had trouble finding good right-handed hitting to offset Utley and Howard’s left-handed bats. But they traded for Hunter Pence last year and he has an 803 OPS and catcher Carlos Ruiz has a (unsustainable) 978 OPS to lead the team. Add in that Juan Pierre is playing left field (and hitting .322) and it’s hard to see a fit for Josh Willingham, though in previous years he would’ve been an obvious fit. But what if Howard can’t come back strong, or if this injury (which has repeatedly defied expectations) looks like it might take more time than just this season to heal? If so, Justin Morneau would be a hell of a replacement for him, and it’s not like his $14 million salary would be much of a problem for the phree-spending Phils. Other options include Ryan Doumit if Carlos Ruiz' ribcage strain becomes a problem. The Phillies setup men – primarily Chad Qualls and Antonio Bastardo - have both been unreliable. If Halladay can’t recover, history suggests that the Phils aren’t afraid to chase high-ceiling pitchers like Liriano. Finally, there is one Twins player that could be interesting even if the Phils decide to pack it in this year. Their center fielder Shane Victorino will be a free agent at the end of the year and the Phillies don’t know if they’ll be able to re-sign him. Denard Span might be of interest as he’s under contract through 2015. Why They Won’t Trade With The Twins The most likely scenario is that the Phils do exactly what the Twins did last year: stand pat. It’s hard to give up on a year when expectations were so high and it’s easy to blame injuries. Plus, management can trot out the great cliché that they’re trading for three superstars just by getting healthy. Conclusion They’re worth watching, to be sure. The Phils have been very aggressive around the trade deadline in acquiring talent, and they haven’t been afraid to trade away significant prospects for the right pieces. But outside of Morneau as a Howard replacement, there doesn’t look like a great fit here. ~~~ Possible Trade Targets Domonic Brown - OF You may have heard this name a the trade deadline in 2011. Or 2010. Or 2009. And now he’s 24. The Phillies have had several opportunities to trust him with a corner outfield spot, and it seems likely they’re never going to have room for him, even though he’s only had 246 AB in the majors. He hasn’t actually done much in the minors in 2011 or 2012 and he’s had trouble staying health (including being out right now with some strained knee ligaments). But did I mention that he’s just 24, and that two years ago he was posting a combine 980 OPS in AA and AAA? Trevor May – RHP May is a possible front of the rotation starter, topping most Phillies prospect lists. But he isn’t an elite prospect because of his struggles with his control. You might expect those issues (4.6 BB/9) to be further exposed as he climbed up the ladder and sure enough, he’s posting a 4.94 ERA this year at AA, albeit with fewer walks. Short of a big deal, he likely isn’t available, but he’s one of several options – Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America both have multiple pitchers in their Top 5 rankings of Phils prospects. Freddy Galvis - SS Galvis made the Phils roster out of spring training, starting at second base, courtesy of Utley’s injury. His year went downhill from there in a hurry. First, he hit .226. Then he fractured his back. And then he was suspended 50 days for testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug. His main asset is a terrific glove. It isn’t clear he has enough offense to be a regular starter – his career OBP in the minors is .292 – and the steroid suspension further clouds that issue. But he’s just 22 years old and has been relatively young for most of his levels, so a case can be made that there is still plenty of untapped potential. Please add your thoughts and trade ideas (and other names the Twins could pursue) in the comments below! Click here to view the article

Sponsored by Ticket King [/hr]Download attachment: Abreu_Jose_Back_US_720.jpg Traditionally, a White Sox visit to Minnesota would be just what the doctor ordered for a struggling Twins team. Hopefully it will be again. The Twins are limping home after a 3-6 road trip and on a five-game losing streak, after losing in particularly gut-wrenching fashion on Thursday. But now they’re back in Target Field, playing on a warm summer weekend (with minimal rain forecast for most of the games) against a White Sox team they haven’t seen since early, frigid April. The White Sox are doing their best to help our boys out. For the second weekend in a row, the Twins are facing a division rival without seeing the opponent’s best pitcher. White Sox ace Chris Sale, who has a 2.20 ERA (that is not a typo), threw six innings yesterday so despite a four-game series, the Twins will miss him. (Or more accurately, it’s likely Sale that misses the Twins: he has a career record of 5-1 with an ERA of 2.42 against them in six games.) The Hot Ticket Remember last year when 27-year-old Andrew Albers blanked the Royals for 8.1 innings in his major league debut? That wasn’t just fun because Albers did well. It was fun because Albers wasn’t supposed to be here; there was almost no chance of him finding his way to The Show before the season started. The Twins are hoping to have lighting strike again on Thursday. Yohan Pino will be making his major league debut as a 30-year-old. Pino is also not supposed to be here, but the Venezuelan has been toiling between AA and AAA since 2007. This year is actually his second go-round with the Twins. He was a pitcher in their farm system until he was 25, when he was traded for Carl Pavano shortly after the trade deadline in 2009. Since then he has served time with Cleveland, Toronto and Cincinnati before returning to the Twins this year. His numbers in Rochester have been outstanding, no matter which ones you like. The traditionalists like the 9-1 record and the 1.92 ERA. Stats guys might be more impressed with 61 K in 61 innings, and a nearly 4:1 K:BB rate. Those numbers are even more impressive considering his “stuff” is considered less than pedestrian. He relies on a mid-80s fastball and a killer changeup. So you have the chance to see something special on Thursday: a guy who shouldn’t be here, with stuff that nobody thinks should play in the majors, could finish writing a dream story in his major league opener. Alternately, everyone could be right and he and his dreams could be crushed. You want drama? Go to a ballgame. A Legal Cuban Import The White Sox starting pitching ranks just above the Twins in ERA (27th overall) but their offense has been reborn since last year’s 29th ranked finish. This year they rank 8th, and a big part of that is their new slugging first baseman Jose Abreu. Abreu was signed out of Cuba this last offseason to a six-year, $68M contract, which is no small commitment to an unknown. It was the largest-ever contract given to a Cuban free agent – and it’s looking like a bargain. Abreu already has 19 home runs despite having an injury in May, and is slugging .596. Hitting right-handed, he’s actually been better against that side than against southpaws, and has shown no signs of slowing down as the league adjusts to him. The White Sox have essentially replaced Paul Konerko with Jose Abreu and not missed a beat, which is terrible news for the Twins, who haven’t had that kind of consistent power in the middle of their lineup since Justin Morneau’s relatively short-lived peak years. This will be Abreu’s first visit to Target Field. I wish I could say you better see him now of you might miss him, but he looks like he’s around to stay. Target Field Speaking of Target Field, in a pregame update with reporters last week, Twins GM Terry Ryan said that it looks like Target Field isn’t depressing home runs like it was in its opening year. A quick glance at the statistics shows he’s right. The Twins and their opponents have hit 56 home runs in games at Target Field. On the road they have hit 57. That’s a little misleading. The Twins have only played 32 of their first 69 games at home. But Target Field is certainly not depressing home runs the way it was early in its existence. [/hr]Tickets look tight for Thursday night's game, but there are 10 tickets right behind the Twins dugout if you want to welcome Johan Pino to The Show. Friday your ticketcould also get you a Harmon Killebrew 1965 All-Star Game bobblehead. If you want a closer view of Jose Abreu, there are lots of seats down the right field line on Saturday. And if you would rather get a home run ball from him, there are six sections in left field with some availability on Sunday. All are an even better deal if you use the promo code DAILYDOUBLE, which will get you 10% off and supports Twins Daily. Whatever your needs, your local ticket supplier, Ticket King, can help. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Craps_shoot_600_321.jpg In the latest Gleeman and the Geek podcast, Aaron Gleeman and I argued, as we are apt to do. Among the questions raised was one that stuck with me: what is the goal of baseball’s regular season? Certainly, it is to make the playoffs, but beyond that, is there an advantage to posting a high win total? The answer to that question influences the path one thinks the Twins should travel this offseason. The AL Central champion had only 88 wins last year, the lowest amount for any division. It is not unlikely that could happen again next year. It is not unreasonable to suggest that even coming off of a 66 win season, by piecing together even a mediocre rotation, the Twins could improve to a mid-80s win team. But is that good enough? Or does a team need to win 90+ games to be taken seriously as a champion? To be honest, I have no idea. Aaron and I have gone back and forth on it throughout the year and again on Sunday night. On the one hand, it makes sense that a better team (one with more wins) would be favored versus a worse team. (Vegas certainly thinks so.) Furthermore, over several games, that advantage would could be more pronounced. On the other hand, it’s often said that playoffs are random. There are certainly enough counterexamples of underdogs who have held parades at the end of October, including this year. It occurred to me today that this is something we can test, and it may provide a pretty definitive answer. Best of all, it isn’t that difficult to do. Here’s how…. (Warning: high level stats discussion coming.) One sabrmetric tool used a LOT is called a correlation test. A correlation test compares two sequenced sets of data and sees what kind of relationships the two sets of data have. It is by using correlation tests that sabremetrics can definitively say that OBP or SLG is more important than BA, because it more closely correlates with the runs a team score. It is also by a correlation test the we know that xFIP is a slightly better predictor of future ERA than ERA is. We’re going to use it to compare wins in the regular season to series wins in the playoffs. Here is a link to the data. It’ll consist of all the playoff teams from 1996 through 2012, along with their playoff series wins and also their regular season wins.* We’ll run a correlation test on those two sets of numbers, and the test will return a value somewhere between -1 and 1: The closer to 1, the more regular season wins translates to playoffs success. For instance, comparing temperatures in Celsius to temperatures in Fahrenheit would have a correlation of 1. Not only does one go up when one goes up, but it goes up or down proportionally the same.The closer to -1, then regular season wins would have a negative correlation to playoff series wins. For instance, comparing how much I cumulatively spend to my checking balance would have a correlation of -1. The higher the amount I spend, the more my checking balance goes down.The closer to 0, the more regular season wins and playoff series wins just aren’t related. If I were to compare the total wins of a team to the numbers of migratory monarch butterflies for each city, I would expect the number to be close to 0. The two sets of data mean nothing to each other.So what do you think it will be? Take your guess, before I do the work. I’m guessing a fairly small correlation, somewhere around .25, which would be similar to the correlation that SABR folks use to conclude that pitchers can’t control if balls in play are hits. (Off to enter data and do the math….) Wow. The answer is actually quite a bit lower than that. The answer is just .07. Winning more games - being a 95 game winner versus an 85 game winner – affords a team almost no advantage in terms of advancing in the playoffs. If I wanted to drive home just how random this is (and I had a little more patience) I could compare the series wins to other ridiculous pieces of data for each team and find one that had a higher correlation. I’d venture to bet that one of these four items would have a higher correlation: team batting average, team errors, average height, or total letters in the names of all the players on 25-man roster. That’s how ridiculously low this correlation is. To me, that means that success in MLB isn’t qualitative - it’s binary. Either a team makes the playoffs, and thus has a pretty even chance to win a championship, or it doesn’t. To give extra credit for wins is akin to giving extra credit for something like team batting average or how many ex-Twins they have – you might find it interesting, but that doesn’t mean it is important. It also suggests that if you think the Twins can win the AL Central next year, then a complete overhaul might not be in order. A team does not need to be razed and rebuilt and win 95 games to position themselves to be a champion. Indeed, it earns them almost nothing at all. They just need to be good enough to get into the postseason, even if it’s in a poor division. ~~~ *(Three geek notes about the data I used. First, I did all the teams since the wild card began. Second, I skipped 1995 because they didn’t play 162 games, and since I was using win total instead of win percentage, that would have produced skewed data. And finally, for 2012, I only used the two wild card teams who won their playoff wild card game.) Click here to view the article