John Bonnes

Download attachment: Safeco_Parrk.jpg Aaron and John talk about what to expect from the trade deadline, Scott Diamond's demise, John reviewing ballparks and beer from his West Coast vacation, criticizing an opposing manager for once, analyzing the Twins' defense, dating by way of pitching matchups, eating money to move Justin Morneau, what to buy from the Metrodome wreckage, golf vs. baseball and the notion of clutch, and time traveling to kill middle infielders.You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Download attachment: firkin2.jpg Aaron and John meet for happy hour at Summit and midst tasting beers review the wisdom behind giving Mike Pelfrey a two-year deal, the impact of trading Ryan Doumit to the Braves and whether Kurt Suzuki will cost Josmil Pinto a roster spot. In between, they taste a Nate Dog, try a firkin, wonder about Danny Valencia's legacy, battle over double-dipping, forecast a move to Uptown and wish Byron Buxton a happy birthday. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]You can listen by clicking below, download us fromiTunes or Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Shields_James-600-361.jpg This weekend is the unofficial start of the Hot Stove Season, because this weekend the MLB General Managers are having their annual offseason meetings in Indian Wells, California. It's not the more hyped "Winter Meetings" that take place next month, but it's still 30 GMs and their assistants, all in the same place, and rumor-mongering galore. Irresponsible, glorious, rumor-mongering. Twins fans have more reason than most to pay attention. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Terry Ryan indicated in his TwinsCentric interview that he intends to be aggressive early this offseason, just as he was last year. Also, it was at these meetings in 2003 that he laid the groundwork for arguably his greatest trade, swapping AJ Pierzynski for Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser. This year, he's not the only one looking to deal. There have been several reports of teams looking to make trades, and in the best possible twist, many have involved starting pitching. Let's roll through a few of them of special interest to Twins fans. The Devil Rays The Rays still are seeking a new their stadium, which means they're still hampered by payroll. Unfortunately some of their starting pitchers are getting a expensive. Even more eyebrow-raising: they are about to lose their center fielder to free agency, and don't have a great replacement. The names that have come up the most are: James Shields Shields has been #1 starter on the Rays, which means he was the anchor to the team with the best starting pitching ERA in the American League last year. He's a 200 IP horse who consistently posts a sub-4 ERA and a strikeout rate that suggests he won't decline any time soon. He'll cost $21M over the next two years, but if you subtract Span’s salary, that’ only about $11 million. There has (justly) been a TON of discussion about the Twins acquiring him, especially after it was reported the Twins inquired about him. Here are the details and discussion. Jeremy Hellickson He's not the pedigree of Shields, but he's no slouch either; he was good enough to win the AL Rookie of the Year in 2011. That also means he's still very cheap and will be under team control for the next four years. Nick wrote about the pros and cons of signing him, and it generated a lot of discussion about what fans could expect. Wade Davis Like a dozen other guys, he was covered in the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook: Playing for a pitching-rich team like the Rays often means that a solid talent like Wade Davis is occasionally the odd man out of the rotation. A former Baseball America Top 100 Prospect, Davis’s spot was usurped by superior talent in Alex Cobb, Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore, pushing him to the bullpen. This was not necessarily a bad move as Davis, similar to the transition Glen Perkins made from starter to reliever, significantly ratcheted up his strikeout rate (from 15% as a starter to 31% as a reliever). His fastball missed a ton more bats and his breaking stuff (a curve and slider) were much more effective in small doses. The Rays have him signed through 2017 at a reasonable amount but his salary will begin to increase steadily. Tampa’s savvy front office will likely want to trade him this offseason while his value is at an all-time high. The Atlanta Braves The Braves are loaded with young pitching, and we previously talked about how their GM is focusing on finding an affordable center fielder. But yesterday, Dave O'Brien, the Braves beat writer, tweeted that the Braves were also sniffing around Josh Willingham. There are at least 8 young pitchers the Braves could offer, ranging from nearly worthless to likely untouchable. We walked through them in this discussion, along with who is likely and not likely with Braves writer Ben Chase. If you're looking for a name or two to tuck away, try these: Randall Delgado and Mike Minor. The Arizona Diamondbacks The GM Meetings produced a bit of a bombshell when it was revealed that the Arizona Diamondbacks would consider moving starting pitching prospect Trevor Bauer. Bauer was the 3rd overall pick in the 2011 draft, and thrived in his first full year, striking out 157 in 120 innings between AA and AAA. He may be a little strong-willed, and he certainly isn't a fan of President Obama, but his talent is undeniable. Unfortunately, the Diamondbacks biggest needs are in their infield, but they did just trade away their center fielder. Currently the plan is to rely on a couple of youngsters to hold down that spot, but there is certainly an opportunity there. Otherwise (or more likely, in addition), some Twins farm prospects could be involved. Needless to say, all kinds of ideas are being kicked around surrounding this rumor. It should be a fun weekend to track this stuff, and it's not unlikely that this weekends rumors will lead to next week's trade. We'll stay on top of the best of the best with some thoughtful unpacking of the possibilities over at Twins Daily. So stay tuned, if you're feeling a little antsy. I know I am. Click here to view the article

The Minnesota Twins were able to avoid the brutal 4-game sweep at home courtesy of their fellow AL Central bottom dwellers, the Chicago White Sox, after a Sam Fuld single in the seventh inning gave them just enough of a cushion for the eventual 4-3 victory. Glen Perkins made it interesting in the ninth, but struck out two to pick up his 25th save of the year. In the minors, a grand slam brought one affiliate a victory, another went into extra innings, and a top pitching prospect made his Midwest League debut.RED WINGS REPORT Indianapolis 3, Rochester 6 Box score Indianapolis scored first and last against the Red Wings in this one, but in between it was all Rochester. Kris Johnson took the mound for the home team, and gave up a couple singles in the first inning to give Indianapolis a 1-0 lead, but after that Johnson was in control until the eighth inning. In five of the six innings in between he faced the minimum, assisted by two double plays. He did not allow a hit from the second inning until the eighth, and for the game went 7.2 innings with three walks and five strikeouts. In the eighth, the Indians managed to string together three singles and two runs before Johnson was replaced by A.J. Achter, who recorded a four out save, his fifth of the year. The Rochester offense was paced by Josmil Pinto, who blasted a fifth inning grand slam to give the Red Wings all the cushion they would need in support of Johnson. It was his fourth home run of the year. Doug Bernier was 3-4 with a run scored, and Danny Ortiz added a solo home run in the sixth inning. ROCK CATS REVIEW Portland 8, New Britain 5 (11 innings) Box Score The Rock Cats scored first in this one, but were unable to score last as the game went into extra innings. In the first inning, a Tony Thomas triple and Eddie Rosario groundout gave them an early 1-0 lead. They then took a 5-1 lead in the fourth after an Aaron Hicks walk, Brandon Waring double, Mike Kvasnicka single, Brad Boyer double, and Jorge Polanco single plated four runs. Unfortunately for New Britain, it was not a lead they were able to hold as Cole Johnson blew the save in the ninth by surrendering a game-tying home run to Keury De La Cruz. Johnson finished the inning and was replaced by Matthew Summers who worked a perfect tenth, before Ryan O’Rourke was knocked around for three runs in the eleventh, and saddled with the loss. Starter Virgil Vazquez pitched seven innings, allowing seven hits and four runs while striking out seven. The offense was led by Jorge Polanco, who went 3-6 with a double and his first AA RBI. Waring was 2-4 with two doubles, Kennys Vargas added a double, and Boyer led the team with two RBI. MIRACLE MATTERS Fort Myers 4, Tampa 6 Box Score In his fourth start since being promoted to Fort Myers, Ethan Mildren was again knocked around by Florida State League hitters. In this one it was eleven hits, two walks, and six earned runs allowed in four innings. Mildren did strike out four. After this game his ERA sits at 7.91 in the FSL. B.J. Hermsen pitched three innings of scoreless relief, and Madison Boer finished the game with a scoreless ninth. The Miracle lineup did get home runs from Dalton Hicks (9) and Mike Gonzalez (8), but it wasn’t enough to keep pace with the Yankees. Adam Brett Walker II and Rafael Valera added doubles to the effort, while Byron Buxton was 1-4 with a walk, RBI, and his third stolen base of the year. The home run for Gonzalez extended his hitting streak to eighteen games, a season high for the Miracle. KERNELS NUGGETS Cedar Rapids 4, Dayton 1 Box score The story in this one was the Midwest League debut of Stephen Gonsalves, who was promoted to Cedar Rapids to take over the spot of his 2013 draft-mate, Kohl Stewart, and it also turned into his first MWL win as he was fantastic. The first batter he faced was sent walking back to the dugout via strikeout, as was the last batter he saw to finish the sixth inning. In between, Gonsalves scattered just three singles and one walk, with four additional K’s to hold the Dragons scoreless in his six frames. He also picked off a runner at first base. The Kernels offense didn’t break through until the sixth inning, but did so in loud fashion as J.D. Williams and Logan Wade slugged solo home runs to put them in front 2-0. They added insurance runs in the seventh after a Bryan Haar triple, error, and Williams double scored their final two runs. Brandon Bixler worked two innings in relief of Gonsalves, and allowed the only Dayton run on two hits and a walk. He struck out two. Dallas Gallant struck out two in a perfect ninth inning to pick up his third save of the year. E-TWINS E-NOTES Elizabethton 7, Johnson City 6 (Suspended) Box Score Elizabethton’s game against rival Johnson City was suspended by rain with one out in the fifth inning, after the Twins had taken the lead with four runs in the frame. Thus far Elizabethton had already pounded out thirteen hits, including multiple hit efforts from Tanner English, Max Murphy, Brian Navarreto, and Austin Diemer. Murphy hit his tenth home run on the season, a solo shot in the third inning, while Navaretto added a triple and Tyler Kuresa doubled. Nick Gordon is 1-3 and was caught stealing for the fourth time. In just 4.1 innings, all batters in the Twins lineup have a hit. Sam Gibbons made the start and lasted just three innings, yielding five earned runs on five hits and three walks. Samuel Clay gave up one run on three hits and a walk in fourth before the postponement. The game is likely to be made up in August when Johnson City comes to Elizabethton, as the Twins travel to Greenville for their game on Monday. TWINS DAILY MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS OF THE DAY Pitcher – Stephen Gonsalves (6.0 IP, 3 H’s, 1 BB, 0 R’s, 6 K’s) Hitter – J.D Williams, Cedar Rapids Kernels (2-3, R, 2B, HR, 2 RBI) MONDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS Indianapolis @ Rochester – Mark Hamburger (2-1, 2.57 ERA), 6:05PM CST New Britain @ Trenton – Pat Dean (7-6, 4.62 ERA), 6:05 CST Clearwater @ Fort Myers – Brett Lee (7-2, 1.92 ERA), 6:05PM CST Cedar Rapids @ Dayton – Aaron Slegers (7-6, 4.49 ERA), 6:00PM CST Greenville @ Elizabethton – TBD, 6:00PM CST GCL Rays @ GCL Twins – TBD, 11:00AM CST DSL D-backs @ DSL Twins – TBD, 9:30AM CST --- Twins took the final game from the White Sox, so you can get a large or extra-large pizza from PapaJohns.com by using the promo code TWINSWIN on Monday. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Willingham.jpg Torii Hunter had 12 or 13 teams chasing after him?!? And signed for two years and $26M? Then how much must Josh Willingham, who hit twice as many home runs as Hunter last year and makes half as much, be worth? I thought of this question on Sunday as I was podcasting with Aaron Gleeman. A quick look at the top free agent outfielders made me even more interested.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Below are the top five free agent outfielders. Let’s go through them as a general manager who is looking for right-handed power in an outfielder. We’ll bold the ones that fit that description…. Josh Hamilton – Left-handed AND ridiculously expensive Curtis Granderson – Not available. BJ Upton – Perfect – If you’re willing to pay 6 years and $90M.Michael Bourn – Great centerfielder, but no power. Nick Swisher – Switch-hitter, quite a bit of power who will likely need a four-year deal. (He also hits better as a left-hander.) Those are the guys that I thought would make more than Hunter this offseason. Compared to them, Willingham – who hit more home runs than Upton or Swisher – looks like a effective but much more affordable and risk-adverse solution. Unfortunately, just below that level are a few names that a general manager could turn to if they miss out on the big names… Cody Ross – Right-handed and hit 22 home runs last year, albeit in Fenway.Shane Victorino – No power. Angel Pagan – Not enough power. Ichiro Suzuki – Not enough power any more. Melky Cabrera – Signed. Ryan Ludwick – Right-handed and hit 26 home runs last year, albeit in Great American Ballpark. Delmon Young – Right-handed and hit 18 home runs last year in Comerica Park. Even though he hit quite a few more home runs in a tougher ballpark, Willingham is not viewed as significantly different than Ross, Ludwick and Young. And all three of those guys will get contracts similar or less than Willingham’s. The Twins took advantage of that perception last offseason when they Twins were able to sign Willingham to his affordable deal. Also, Willingham's defense looks pretty bad, though it isn’t terrible according to metrics like UZR, which says he cost the Twins just 8 runs over the average left fielder. Still, that perception could limit National League teams interest. The bottom line is that if a GM is looking to add some right-handed pop to his lineup, there are some other options. While they might not be as good, they also aren’t going to cost a blue chip prospect and they aren’t going to break the bank. If Twins fans want to see a big return for Willingham, this offseason probably isn’t the best time to trade him, despite the interest there was in Hunter. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Big_River_Brew_Fest.jpg Aaron and John visit a rainy Nordeast Big River Brew Fest and talk about why the Twins let David Ortiz go, finishing the Justin Morneau trade with Duke Welker, East Side Neighborhood Services, Metrodome-like attendance figures, Joe Nathan and Matt Capps going opposite directions, John Sickels Top 20 Twins' prospects, "Singles Night" at Xcel Center, podcast Hall of Famers, the White Sox spending $68 million on a Cuban import, and mailbag questions from listeners. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

I blame myself. I do. Heading to the middle of the eighth inning, I’m forced to leave my seat to pick up my kid at 10:00. By the time I walk through the stadium, I’ve heard the roar and see Jamey Carroll standing on third base with no outs and the third through fifth batters coming up. Download attachment: Auto-Transmission-Clutch1.jpg If I didn’t have to pick up my kid in 10 minutes, I SWEAR I would’ve stuck around. I mean – you know me by now. Is there anyone MORE superstitious? Four blocks away from Target Field I say to The Voice of Reason™, “Have you heard a roar yet? I haven’t.” “Nope.” Me: (Heavy sigh.) [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] “Yep.” One can frame this game a lot of ways. I’m sure the Boston papers will frame it as a Cody Ross redemption game. And if the Twins third and fourth hitters would have managed to do anything remotely similar to what one expects from the eighth and ninth hitters, it would have been a different game, and a different column. But they didn’t. And it isn’t. Check that – SO it isn’t. I can’t talk too much about those criticat at-bats. I didn’t see them live. I saw replays of the swings. Apparently, Josh Willingham hit the ball hard but lined out to the third baseman. Joe Mauer swung weekly at an off-speed pitch and grounded out to first base. The at-bat looks worse because of how poor a hit it was – a dribbling play up the first base line. Of course, it was an off-speed pitch. On a full count, one might expect a pitcher to challenge a hitter, but with two bases open, why would he? He threw a 75-mph-pitch that Mauer had not yet seen and that was it. I want to come down on Mauer – I want to come down on everyone after this loss – but I can see what happened. A few more notes about the game… Capping Off A Loss Hey, at least Matt Capps hasn’t blown a Save (capital S) yet - just a game. Is that a cheap shot? Sure, but I don’t mean it to Capps. I mean it to the Twins, who seem to think that once a randome team sprinkles a guy with Magic Closer Dust (capital MCD), they’re forever a different guy. Capps now has four strikeouts in seven innings, which is under the league average, especially for relievers, but about average for him. (Correction: He actually has two strikeouts, which is less than half of his career rate.) To his credit, he hasn’t walked a guy. But he’s given up seven hits, which is about average for both him and your average major league pitcher. And, worse of all for a closer, he’s given up two home runs, which is about three times the average rate for a pitcher. Hey, it’s small sample size. It doesn’t mean much. Except that home runs were Capps’ soft spot last year and have been every year he’s struggled. He basically matched his career averages in all categories last season – except he gave up a couple of extra home runs. Which is what turned him from a below average closer into a really terrible closer. Which one MIGHT have anticipated, if he wasn’t all glittery with that MCD. Oooh, sparkly. The Other Story Minus that eighth inning debacle and a ninth inning home run, here’s what the game story would have included… Gardenhire took a risk I didn’t anticipate with the lineup tonight. Faced with wanting to get Chris Parmelee in the lineup instead of Clete Thomas (for which there should be wild applause), he didn’t take the safe route. Instead, he gave Willingham a rest at designated hitter and gave Parmelee a start in left field. From what I saw, Parmelee didn’t embarrass himself out there, which is REALLY nice to see. I was really happy to see this.But it didn’t pay off. Justin Morneau, who played first base, didn’t get a hit, and neither did Willingham. In fact, according to WPA, they impacted the game the most negatively of any of the Twins. Finally, Parmelee’s only hit came in the ninth, and was too little, too late. Danny Valencia should have been the hero of this game. Taking a 1-2 pitch with 2 outs to deep center? Really? I really hope this is a sign of things to come. Soon. The 6-4-3 double play that saved a run got the whole stadium excited. One can’t say enough about Carroll on that play, but it’s worth noting that the pivot was carried out by Trevor Plouffe. It’s exciting to see him make just a mediocre throw. That was phenomenal. Is manager Ron Gardenhire pulling his starters too late this year? It’s late, so I’ll let someone else crunch the numbers, but Marquis gave up that home run when he was after 100 pitches. It seems like the last week or so, I feel like the starter is having a decent outing, but by the time they’re done, they’ve given up enough runs in their last inning to inflate their ERA. It certainly happened tonight. Of course, part of that might be not having a lot of faith in the bullpen. Capps certainly furthered that concern, but did anyone else note that Glen Perkins didn’t make an appearance in the eighth again tonight? Perkins pitched yesterday, and was apparently unavailable, and that’s looking like a pattern.The thing is, he pitched yesterday when the Twins were already behind. (And then he gave up a run, so the team was further behind.) Just so we’re clear on where Perkins is so far this year: he hasn’t been particularly good, he hasn’t been available on back-to-back days, he has been hurt, and he just got a long-term deal. Everyone got all that? Good. Click here to view the article

Sponsored by Switch My Trip [/hr]Phil Hughes Big Switch pitching Download attachment: Hughes_Phil_Walking_720_Orig.jpg performance on Friday night successfully stared down a three-game losing streak and Justin Verlander. It was also his fourth straight quality start, suggesting that Hughes is in the midst of his own Big Switch. That switch is half of what we thought it would be, but half unforeseen, though maybe we should have expected it. When the Twins signed Phil Hughes this offseason to a 3-year, $24 million contract, reactions to the deal were split, with very little middle ground. The agreement was an easy target for criticism. Hughes record last year was just 4-14 with a 5.19 ERA. In what world did those numbers justify a three-year deal, let alone $24 million guaranteed? [/hr]The Twins are looking to switch things around this year. Every week, Metro Transit recognizes a Twins player who successfully switched the outcome of a game for the better. [/hr] The alternate view boiled down to one hope: like Snake Plissken, Hughes just needed to Escape from New York. Part of that argument was subjective. Hughes was once the top pitching prospect in the minors, the guy that Yankees wouldn’t trade for Johan Santana. He was called up as a 20-year-old, and even now is just 27 and approaching his prime. By all accounts his stuff has been better than his performance. He had faced the brightest of spotlights on the biggest of stages with the highest of expectations as one of the league’s youngest players. All of which could overwhelm anyone. But the other reason to get him out of New York was more objective: Hughes has always been hurt by his home ballpark. In particular, his tendency to give up long fly balls was hurt by Yankees Stadium’s smaller dimensions, especially in right field. For instance, last year Hughes gave up seventeen home runs in Yankee Stadium and just seven on the road. His ERA at home was 6.32, but 3.88 on the road. His record was 1-10 in the Rebuilt House that Ruth Built, but 3-4 everywhere else. Perhaps Hughes just wasn’t made to pitch in the Bronx Bandbox. So far, the home run theory is holding water. Hughes home run rate has dropped 40% to .9 HR/9 from 1.5 HR/9 last year. This year’s rate, by the way, matches his home run rate on the road last year. His 3.92 ERA also almost matches what he had on the road last year. Maybe this success isn’t such a surprise. But there is another change, too. Hughes walk rate (1.3 BB/9) is half of what it was last year (2.6 BB/9) and over his entire Yankees’ career (2.8 BB/9). This is probably also something we might have anticipated, though maybe not to this degree. Pretty consistently, when pitchers have come to the Twins and pitching coach Rick Anderson, we have seen a decline in walk rate. Of course, we’ve also see a decline in strikeout rate, which we’re also seeing with Hughes, from 7.5 K/9 down to 7.0. Still, that’s a trade worth making. Taken all together, there are some reasons to believe that this offseason’s best case scenario is coming true, and we’re watching a Big Switch in a player’s career. If so, instead of being foolish, the three-year deal the Twins signed would be brilliant. Hughes would be locked into a relatively affordable $8M contract through his 30-year-old season. It could work out well for Hughes too – that’s a good age to look for his next big deal, whether it is from the Twins or some other team. The contract, widely derided nationally, is paying off for both sides in the early going. [/hr]Why fight traffic and parking? Say Switch My Trip for the next Twins game. Metro Transit can provide you and your whole family a train ride to the game. Planning your trip is as easy as clicking on this link. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Vavra_Joe_ShakingHands_US_600.jpg Let’s start with this: I don’t care if Aaron Hicks slid or not – Joe Vavra blew the call to send him last night in the fourth inning. This is not debatable. I doubt Vavra would debate it. And even had Hicks slipped into some shiny leather and slid like Kate Beckinsale in Underworld, he was still going to be out. It was not close. It was Vavra's mistake that the announcers should have been talking about. Here was the situation. The Twins lead 2-1 in the top of the fourth inning. Hicks was on second base, which he had easily stolen. Leadoff hitter Brian Dozier was up to bat with one out. He hit a line drive to left field. It appears Hicks got a slow start but was waved home the whole way by third base coach Vavra. It was not close, the throw reached the catcher on a bounce and Hicks was out by several feet. He tried to dipsy-doo around the catcher, looked silly, and was criticized by announcer Roy Smalley for not sliding. And he deserved that. But the the more significant message was delivered by play-by-play announcer Dick Bremer who announced that Hicks was being sent home with (what I would call) surprise in his voice. Because Hicks never had much chance. Making outs is a cardinal sin for a third base coach. (Technically, I forget whether it’s a subset of “gluttony” or “greed”.) But in this case, the story is not to beat up Vavra about a bad call. It’s just to explain the philosophy a third base coach must have, and the math behind why he must have it. And maybe learn why Vavra could risk a little more on this play. The basic rule for a third base coach is if you think there’s a decent chance your runner can get thrown out, stop him. This can be shown mathematically, which I’ll demonstrate below, but it also just makes sense: the value of the extra base, even though it’s tied to a run, is nowhere near the cost of adding an out AND losing a baserunner at 3rd base. Sabrmetrics has provided a lot more precision, and it lends a little extra insight in this case. In this game, because the hitter can advance into scoring position on a throw to the plate, that rule is not quite as stringent. Sabrmetrics, for problems like this, uses something called Palmer and Thorn’s Run Expectancy Matrix. Pete Palmer and Roger Thorn studied 75 years worth of baseball games and found out the average number of runs that scored in basic situations. (By the way, they did this back in 1975.) You can find it here, but these are the relevant numbers: The average team with runners on 1st and 3rd and one out will score 1.088 runs in that inning. That’s what happens if Vavra holds up the “stop” sign. The average team with a runner on 2nd and two outs will score .348 runs in that inning. That’s what happens if Vavra waves Hicks home and he’s thrown out. The average team, with a runner on 2nd and one out will score .699 runs in that inning, PLUS they would have already scored a run, so that’s 1.699 runs. That’s what happens if Vavra waves Hicks home and he’s safe. So if Hicks is sent home and safe, the Twins gain about .6 runs. If he’s out, they lose .75 runs. It doesn’t take a math major (just a good algebra background) to see that Hicks needs to be safe about 55% of the time to break even. If Vavra felt it was a “coin flip” situation, sending Hicks is defendable. (It didn’t look like it was, but given Hicks speed, maybe he had additional confidence.) Now that’s just the base rule. It assumes that there are average hitters and average pitchers and average fielders, etc. In this case there were some extenuating circumstances. For starters, the next hitter was not average. In face, Doug Bernier didn’t have a major league hit and he's 32 years old. He might be more likely to strike out or to hit into a double play than an average hitter, so maybe sending the runner makes more sense. Of course, Joe Blanton is on the mound, and he hasn't been an average pitcher. He might be more likely to give up a couple more hits, so maybe it's a better idea not to send the runner. Finally, batting behind Bernier is Joe Mauer, who is a pretty good guy to have up in a clutch situation, which is probably the best reason to keep everyone from risking that extra out. So in this game, it’s hard to find extra incentive to risk that out. But the decision by Vavra to send Hicks by might not have been as egregiously wrong as it initially looked. (And certainly not as bad as it looked after Bernier’s double.) Third base coaches need to be pretty conservative in general, but as far as picking a moment to be aggressive, this was a pretty good choice. Click here to view the article

I could be a Pirates fan. Believe me, I know all that implies. As a middle-aged Twins fan, I've felt Pirates fans' pain, albeit in lesser doses. I can sympathize with the hopelessness and even apathy that sets in after years of mismanagement. Watching the supposedly competitive Bucs yesterday didn't inspire me to join them anytime soon.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] If you're wondering what the "traditional" Twins philosophy - pitching, defense and maybe a little hitting - looks like in the NL, look at the Pirates. I'm sure the announcers focus on the pitching and defense, but it's hard to get past just how inept that offense is. But I could be a Pirates fan, just because of PNC Park. I last visited PNC a couple of years ago when we sat with friends in the upper deck. I came away thinking I had found the best new ballpark in the majors, and maybe second to only Wrigley in my heart. That was reinforced last night. Last night we had much, much, MUCH better seats - 2nd row down the first base line just past first base - and they cost us just $34. (That's one of the other perks for being a Pirates fan - the cost for everything is quite a bit lower.) Like I said, they were great seats - actually a little below field level - but I think I might have liked the upper deck seats last time just as much. Why? Cuz this is the view from the upper deck. It helps that Pittsburgh is a beautiful city, which I did not expect before visiting. It is classic big steel, defiantly proud of its heritage, jutting its chin out at our expectations. The ballpark leverages that too, closing the adjacent riveted bridge that leads to downtown to everything but pedestrian traffic and independent vendors. The result is an urban ballpark plaza that also happens to cross the Allegheny River. My friend Bob joked about just how scenic the ballpark was and how the architect must have reacted to seeing the site. "It goes where? And I can turn it anyway I want?" He or she must have felt like they had died and gone to heaven. But give the Pirates some credit - they didn't screw it up, and it would have been easy enough to do. The ballpark works because center field doesn't have any bleachers, allowing the city and river to bleed into the park. I'm sure at some point adding a 10,000 seat tourniquet occurred to the bean counters. Not doing so proved prescient, because the Pirates aren't selling those seats anyway. The park was about half full last night. It felt a little like looking into the Twins future. That's bad news for us payroll trackers, but sure makes for a nice intimate ballpark experience. I enjoy the packed energy that is currently at most Twins home games, but I think I'll also like the camaraderie that comes from a smaller more interested crowd. I sure did last night. Download attachment: PNC Park.jpg Click here to view the article

Download attachment: target+field.jpg sponsored by Ticket King C’mon, you can admit it – it’s fun to hate the Yankees. Let go of your stoic Minnesotan demeanor for one minute and confess: you enjoy watching those pampered Gothamites get their come-upance. If they want to act like a bunch of fancy-pants in their own stadium, surrounded by stockbrokers and thugs (and stockbroker thugs), that’s their business. But when they come to our quaint little ballpark, some plain talk should inform them that they can leave their overstuffed wallets in the locker room. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] And you’re probably just the person to do it. Here are the Twins tickets you need to do the job. Section 126 – Down the left field line. I’m not ready to let go of the Phil Cuzzi call yet. I’m not that big. I’ll admit it. If you’re like me and history repeats itself, you’ll be right there to see for yourself that it’s a fair ball. And perhaps point to the big freaking divot in the ground. Section 14 – Third base And since this time the Phil Cuzzi clone will need to be the 3rd base umpire (this isn’t a playoff game, so there won’t be an outfield umpire, as in Cuzzi’s case) you can verbally let him know that your friends in Section 126 saw the whole thing. Section 128, 129, 229, 230 – The left field bleachers Because you never know when the Yankees may bring back Chuck Knoblauch. It makes as much sense as trotting Vernon Wells’ undead corpse out there. (By the way, Wednesdays are $1 hot dog nights.) Section 113-115 – G, H & J – Legends Club behind home plate It’s sad, but many home plate umpires are intimidated by pinstripes. From your perch above home plate, you’re in the perfect position to remind tonight’s ump that he’s man enough to overcome his insecurities. (Or, if he’s not, to suggest the nearest local optometrist.) Section 214 – Upper deck, behind home plate These Minnesota Twins tickets are just below 2 Gingers Pub where Sue Nelson, the Twins organist, plays. She’s a lovely and gifted lady, and super-friendly to boot. But she may be tempted to play one of several New York anthems while the Yankees are in town, like Frank Sinatra, Billy Joel or Frank Sinatra. Gently let her know you don’t approve. Section 233, 234, 235 and 236 – Over the bullpens Please don’t tell Mariano Rivera he sucks, because he really, really doesn’t. In fact, if you really want to help out the Twins, tell him how much you LOVE retirement. Talk up the trips abroad and the time you have to get that “honey-do” list done. Maybe buy him a gold watch. Sections 7, 8, 9 & 10 – The Champions Club behind home plate At several hundred dollars for one of these Target Field tickets, you can bet some of these will be snapped up by big New York money fund managers rooting for their beloved Bombers. If you’re feeling gentle, encourage these fellows to go for fourths at the luxurious buffets that are comped. It shouldn’t take too much coercing to slip them into a fat cat food coma. Feeling more aggressive? Loudly proclaim some totally false insider trading information. Section 11, 12 & 13- Right behind the Yankees dugout Usually this would be a prime location to let Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez or Mark Teixeira know what you think of their play – and maybe their moms. But the Yankees have grown a little old and fragile this year, so those three are being replaced by Jayson Nix, David Adams and Lyle Overbay. It’s enough to almost make you feel sorry for them. (Heh. Not really.) Click here to view the article

~ Sponsored by Switch My Trip ~ How big of a switch do you want? A game? A week? A team? A career? Our winner this week, Chris Colabello, represents all of the above. His bases-clearing double in yesterday’s 10-7 win over Cleveland rescued a game that was deteriorating fast for the Twins. And that was his second best performance of the week. Download attachment: Colbello_chris_handshake_US_600.jpg His best was three days earlier, when the Twins were trying to bounce back from a disheartening extra-inning loss, avoid being swept by the dreaded White Sox and win their first game of the 2014 season. That’s when he drove in six of the Twins ten runs in a 10-6 win. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] ~ The Twins are looking to switch things around this year. Every week, Metro Transit recognizes a Twins player who successfully switched the outcome of a game for the better. ~ A week that could’ve ended 1-5 is now 3-3. A team that had serious questions about their offense is now one of the top scoring teams in the majors. And their cleanup hitter is a 30-year-old rookie who was nearly sold to a South Korean team in December. Hollywood would turn down this script as too saccharine. Three years ago, Colabello wasn’t playing with an affiliated team. He was playing in the Can-Am league, an independent league similar to the league in which the St. Paul Saints play. As a 28-year-old he joined the Twins AA club and impressed. Last year as a 29-year-old he tore up AAA, earning a promotion to the majors as a very old rookie. That’s already a Disney movie. But cue the foreboding music, because after he was called up, Colabello fell flat. He started out 1 for 11. He bounced around a .200 batting average finishing with a .194 mark. He went to the Dominican Winter League where he was hitting just .190 when the opportunity arose to join a South Korean team. Colabello had every right to embrace that destiny. It was reported that he could have made upwards of a million dollars in salary overseas. With the Twins, he would be limited to about half of that – and that was only if he made the team, which was looking questionable. Joe Mauer was moving to first base, Colabello’s natural position. The Twins had signed Jason Kubel to be their designated hitter. Colabello was a long shot to make the roster even if he was hitting, which, of course, he wasn’t. The simple fact that the Twins were willing to sell his contract overseas spoke volumes about their evaluation of his future. But Colabello turned down the chance to go overseas. He started hitting early in spring training and never stopped. He leapfrogged several other candidates to make it onto the Opening Day roster for the first time as a 30-year-old. And through the first week of the season, he leads the team in RBI, total bases and OPS (on-base plus slugging). How much bigger can a switch get? ~~~ Why fight traffic and parking? Say ‘Switch My Trip’for the next Twins game. Metro Transit can provide you and your whole family a train ride to the game. Planning your trip is as easy as clicking on this link. Click here to view the article

For years, it's been clear that the Twins belong to Joe Mauer. It's nice to to get a little divine confirmation. Download attachment: mntwins.JPG Late last night news broke that Joe's Mauer's wife, Maddie, is pregnant with Twins. (Oops. I meant "twins." The capitalization has become a habit. Though I suppose it is possible that she could be pregnant with future Twins. Gotta love those Mauer genes.) According to Joe, everything so far is "so good." Yes, yes it is Joe. For all of us. Let the "extra-base power" jokesbegin! Of course, Joe's not the one who gets to carry not one, but two human beings inside himself for the next couple of months. Maddie might want to approach the next eight months with the same attitude Denny Hocking did when his wife had twins. When someone pointed out to him that he was the first franchise player to have twins while playing for the Twins, he replied "At least I don't play for the Sixers." [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] I'll be honest, this news has put a little hop in my step today. first, because it is the most Minnesotan story ever. For most of the rest of the nation, if the news broke that a ballplayer was going to "have" twins, they would have assumed they looked like this: Download attachment: twins.JPG Nope, not in Minnesota. We assume two overweight, overly-friendly guys, shaking hands over a river. (Maddie can be happy she isn't carrying THAT for the next eight months, too.) I also love that the Twins franchise player is having twins. Three years ago, when I reviewed that $23 million per year contract that Joe got, I didn't think of this as a possible benefit. And if this news came down today and Mauer was a Yankee or a Red Sock, I'd be a little bummed. It would have been just one more log on the "We're Minnesotans and we can't have nice things" bonfire. I'm a little tired of watching that thing burn. Instead, the more ethereal of us can talk ourselve into this being a positive omen. The Baby Jesus having twins? Our favorite Twin having twins just about the same time that the Twins are themselves being reborn? That's GOT to be good, right? I can get a little carried away. Why not? It's spring. The time when a young man's mind wanders to love, and baseball, and babies. And Twins. Er, twins. Oh, hell - TWINS. Click here to view the article

The Minnesota Twins traded Francisco Liriano to the White Sox tonight for infielder Eduardo Escobar and left-handed pitcher Pedro Hernandez. Liriano was scheduled to start Sunday's game versus the Cleveland Indians. Brian Duensing will take his turn in the rotation.Download attachment: Francisco-Liriano.jpg Neither prospect the Twins received is highly, or even semi-highly, regarded. Escobar was not in Baseball America's list of the White Sox top 10 prospects prior to the season. He was #7 on Baseball Prospectus' list, but is listed as a 2-star (out of five) prospect. Escobar is just 23 years old and has spent this year in the majors with the White Sox. It's not clear why; it appears he have two option years left and it's hard to make a case that he's earned that promotion. Last year he hit .266 with a .303 OBP in AAA. In fact, his career OBP through all the levels of the minors is just .315 and he's struck out 100+ times in his last two years. Not too surprisingly, he's hitting .195 in the majors, albeit in just 92 plate appearances. Pedro Hernandez also did not not make Baseball America's top 10 and ranked 15th on the Baseball Prospectus list. He's pitched at three level this year: 12 starts in AA, two starts in AAA and a single major league start. But he's clearly been rushed through AAA with just six starts. He's 23 years old. He fits the stereotyped Twins pitcher - good control but not dominating stuff, or at least dominating as measure by strikeouts. His career minor league average is 7.4 K/9, which is below average. This year in AA he posted a 2.06 ERA - but also struck out just 37 batters in 68 IP. That's a lower rate than even Nick Blackburn had in AA. Hernandez has also never pitcher more than 116 inning in the minors or had more than 18 starts. He has been used as a reliever several time throughout the minors. However, he has shown outstanding control with a K to BB ratio approaching 5:1, although that has suffered as he has made his way up the minor league ladder. I've made the mistake several times of leaping to conclusions about lower level prospects that Terry Ryan has targeted who have turned out far better than I might have hoped. Jason Bartlett and Alexi Casilla both some to mind, and I'm sure there are more. But at first glance, it looks like Liriano was traded to a division rival for two C prospects that might fill needs but are long shots to have any long-lasting impact on the organization. Click here to view the article

There is no question that umpires have biases. The question is whether we want them or not. A couple of years ago I reported on a book that I was reading titled Scorecasting by Tobias J Moskowitz and L. Jon Weerthem. This writeup is going to copy a lot of that story. The book is similar to the book Freakonomics, except that it focuses exclusively on sports. If you have an iPad or iPhone, you can download the first chapter for free – and just that much changed forever how I watch baseball. The chapter is about a bias that umpires have because they are, with the possible exception of Joe West, human. And humans are far more willing to forgive an error of omission over an error of commission.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] That is, we are more willing to forgive an error caused by doing nothing over an error caused by doing something. And thus humans are for more willing to commit an error of omission over an error of commission, because it gets us into less trouble. I’ll give an example from the book: “In a well-known psychological experiment, the subjects were posed the following question: Imagine there have been several epidemics of a certain kind of flu that everyone contracts and that can be fatal to children under three years of age. About 10 out of every 10,000 children with this flu will die from it. A vaccine for the flu, which eliminates the change of getting it, causes death in 5 or every 10,000 children. Would you vaccinate your child?” Most parents opted to NOT to vaccinate their child, despite it halving the chances of their child dying. The thought of doing something to the child which would cause his or her death was worse than the though of doing nothing and doubling the chances of death. The same bias is statistically apparent in umpires when it comes to calling balls and strikes and now I can’t help but notice it. In 2007, mlb.com installed the pitch f/x equipment in all the ballparks, providing data on 2 million pitches, including 1.15 million called pitches. Suddenly we could see from data how accurate umpires were in calling balls and strikes, and whether there are any circumstances that made them less accurate. It turns out there are. A ball that is in the strike zone is called accurately by an umpire 80.2% of the time. But that number dives if there are two strikes on the batter (and it isn’t a full count). Then, a ball in the strike zone is called a strike just 61.3% of the time. He’s almost twice as likely to mistakenly count a strike as a ball. Again, don’t forget – we KNOW that these are really strikes from the f/x data. The same thing happens the other way on pitches outside the strike zone on three-ball counts, though it’s not quite so drastic. A pitch outside the strike zone is called a ball 87.8% of the time, but if there are three balls (and it’s not a full count) it’s only called a ball 84% of the time. The reason? Because calling strike three or ball four ends the at-bat. It’s active – it affects the game far more than giving the batter and pitcher another pitch to resolve the at-bat themselves. The incentive is toward the error of omission rather than that of commission. Incidentally, this is most apparent on borderline pitches. Over all counts, a borderline is called a strike 49.9% of the time – almost literally a coin flip. But with a 2-strike count (again not a full count) it’s called a strike just 38.2% of the time. And with a three ball count, it’s called a strike 60% of the time. The percentages become even more extreme on 3-0 and 0-2 counts. This may be a bias that we, as fans, want to reward. For the first time, I thought about whether or not I really want to take that kind of call out of an umpire’s hands. Don’t we want someone who prompts the batter and pitcher to resolve their conflicts themselves? Even if it might not be a perfectly accurate call. Download attachment: umpire.jpg Click here to view the article

Third baseman and non-roster invitee Sean Burroughs reported to Twins spring training camp yesterday and apparently took some time to talk to reporters, as you'll find him in numerous stories today. That's not surprising.Download attachment: burroughs.jpg Burroughs is a good story - a Little League hero who rose to prize prospect, flamed out in 2007, fell into a life of substance abuse and returned to the majors as a bench bat last year. For now, it's a happy ending. For Twins fans, it has a chance to be happier still, because Burroughs has positioned himself to be in the right place at the right time. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]I was asked today how the Twins were the lucky team to sign someone with Burroughs’ upside to a minor league contract. The answer is a bittersweet one to Twins fans. Burroughs likely signed with the Twins because a lot could go wrong at the hot corner this year. Last year, a heap of unwanted attention was piled on Danny Valencia's defense, and when one plays for a manager like Ron Gardenhire, that's no small problem. But there was also the fact that the right-handed batting Valencia has simply not hit right-handed pitching, posting .242 batting average and just a 654 OPS in 660 plate appearances. For comparison, Nick Punto’s career OPS is 652. Considering right-handed pitchers account for 2/3 of the at-bats an everyday starter faces and suddenly Valencia’s future as a full-time player is in doubt. Enter Burroughs. Burroughs bats left-handed. Coincidentally, when speaking of Burroughs, Gardenhire specifically praised two areas in which Valencia has struggled: defense and clubhouse impact. ESPN 1500’s Phil Mackey asked Gardenhire about Burroughs and passed along the following quotes: It's unlikely last year’s third base responsibilities would change by Opening Day. But it's not totally crazy to think that Burroughs could find his way onto the 25-man roster. Two bench spots might be in play. Luke Hughes' status is up in the air given his shoulder problems. Burroughs could replace him, especially if he shows he can fill-in at second base in a pinch. And the Twins have enough redundancy at catcher, shortstop and center field that Gardenhire could use that last roster spot for a bench bat instead of a bench glove. But whether he makes it right now or not, this story isn't over. We don't know the plot twists that will take place yet this spring or summer, but there is plenty of opportunity for all involved to live happily ever after. Click here to view the article

The trade deadline is a significant event in Twins Daily’s calendar and now that it’s over, I thought we might give an update on how the community is faring.Download attachment: huddle.jpg We have 1923 registered users and 963 of them have contributed at least one post to the site.We have 2209 threads with 40,120 posts. Each month, the number of posts has been increasing by 24%.133 members have tried blogging and produced 1342 posts.Over 150,000 unique visitors have stopped by the site since we went live just over five months ago.On trade deadline day, we set a record for activity with 45,000+ page views. What’s more, on Friday we will pass our 3 millionth page view. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]We (actually, Brock gets all the credit for this ) have also rolled out a new mobile version of the site that we hope will help you keep in touch with the community even when you have to be away from your PC. I hope you’re all as thrilled with the scale of what is happening and are committed to making everyone feel welcome. The goal of this site was to make it easier for Twins fans to find great independent Twins writers and thinkers, regardless of the background and baseball beliefs. We’ve now reached 150,000 fellow fans who have read your posts and blogs three million times. So THANKS for continuing to share your passion and make this community an inviting baseball oasis. Please think about sharing it with friends or even strangers who are as passionate about the Twins as you are. Passions are best when they’re shared. And PLEASE don’t hesitate to share your thoughts/suggestions about the site in our Questions About Twins Daily forum. Blogs You would think we might be happy with 133 member blogs and 1342 posts. We are, but I believe we can do more - that there is a lot of hidden talent out there. So in our forum I’ve opened a thread talking about the establishment of a Twins Daily Writer’s Club. If you’re interested in writing more, please check it out and let me know of any ideas you might have. Click here to view the article

The Big Picture In the hyper-competitive NL East, the Braves are 4.5 games back of the division leading Nationals. But they’re also just one game back of the second wild-card spot, which happens to be shared by division rival New York Mets. Atlanta is reportedly searching for a top starting pitcher. That’s unusual ground for them – just last year they ranked 4th in MLB in ERA – but some injuries and regression by youngsters have them looking for rotation help.Download attachment: mike-minor.jpg [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Why They Will Trade With The Twins The Braves are somewhat like the Twins right now, with two solid starters – Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson – followed by a whole lot of finger-crossing. They’ve been linked to just about every possibly available starting pitcher on the market already. That includes Francisco Liriano. Braves scout Jim Fregosi (which are four words that should get ’93 Phils fans a little worked up) was at Sunday’s game, though he claimed the Braves weren’t interested in Liriano. But the best reason they match up with the Twins isn’t because of what they need as much as what they can offer – young pitching. One of the guys struggling in their rotation right now is 24-year-old left-hander Mike Minor, who is sporting a 6.20 ERA. But last year he struck out 99 batters in 100.2 inning in AAA, and almost matched that 1:1 ratio in 15 games in the majors. There are at least two other major-league-ready young pitchers that could be available for whoever can provide a high-end starter. Why They Won’t Trade With The Twins Pay a lot of attention to this next paragraph. Or don't, since I suspect I’m going to be repeating it in a lot of these profiles. It looks like there could be an awful lot of awful good starting pitchers available at the trade deadline this year. Yes, there could be a lot more “buyers” than “sellers,” but there are fewer buyers with the will or need to make a big trade for a starting pitcher. The Brewers are rumored to be fielding calls for both Zach Greinke and (if he gets healthy) Shawn Marcum. The Phillies have started calling teams about Cole Hamels. The Cubs will certainly listen to offers for Matt Garza. Liriano probably slots behind all of those guys and maybe among some other names like Seattle’s Jason Vargas. However, one thing that Liriano does have going for him to facilitate a trade to the Braves: he’s left-handed. Atlanta hasn’t indicated they have a preference, but the Nationals team they’re chasing is hitting just .233 vs southpaws this year, 3rd worst in the majors. Conclusion There are a lot of other teams that would like to add Liriano to their rotation, and there are a lot of other pitchers that could help the Braves. But the Twins and Braves make a good fit both in terms of what is given and what is received. Don’t be surprised if rumors surrounding these two teams get louder as the deadline approaches. Possible Trade Targets Mike Minor – LHP He’s just 24. He’s left-handed. He has very little service time. He was the seventh overall pick in the 2009 draft. And he has struck out 192 in 209 IP in the majors. But he’s sporting a 6.20 ERA this year (5.34 career) and is giving up WAY too many home runs. Sounds like an awfully good fit for Target Field. It’s a little hard to believe the Twins could get him straight up for Liriano, but perhaps they could include their own prospect to balance out the deal? Randall Delgado – RHP Here’s another one of the Braves promising pitching prospects that is struggling in the majors this year. Delgado’s problem this year has been control and that’s never been a particularly strong suit of his. But he’s just 21 years old and was rushed to the majors with only four starts in AAA. He also has 569 Ks in his 538 innings in the minors and a fastball that averaged 92.4 mph last year. Julio Teheran – RHP He’s one of the top pitching prospects in the minors with mid-90s stuff – and yet the Braves are looking for outside help? Yep. He’s just 21 years old. His strikeout rate in AAA doesn’t jump off the page and his brief callup last year (5.03 ERA w 10K and 8BB in 19.2 IP) was underwhelming. But again – he’s one of the top pitching prospects in the minors. And he’s in AAA. If the Braves don’t want to suffer through his growing pains, I know a team that will be happy to. A few more… Sean Gilmartin - LHP Stop me if this sounds like someone the Twins would like. Last year’s first round pick by the Braves projects as a middle of the rotation starter with outstanding control. The 6’2” southpaw is currently in AA. Zeke Spruill – RHP Also in AA, the 6’5” right-hander is positioning himself for a midyear promotion to AAA. With 63K in 98 IP, he doesn’t have outstanding stuff, but his control could make him a mid-rotation starter. Carlos Perez – LHP Only 19 and only in A-ball (again) and he’s not exactly thriving there. But he’s got a 90mph sinker that, if he can harness it, could rocket him up the ladder. He sounds a little bit like Liriano, actually. Arodys Vizcaino – RHP The 21-year-old fireballer rocketed through the organization to impact Atlanta’s bullpen last year. Unfortunately, it looks like that is his future, and it’s a future at least a year away as he was shelved for Tommy John surgery this March. Click here to view the article

I’m not particularly fond of how Minnesota treats its sports stars. The Puckett-like love affair is rare. More often, we pick nits. Kevin Garnett doesn’t score enough, or isn’t clutch enough. Joe Mauer doesn’t hit for enough power or doesn’t show enough leadership. Fran Tarkenton can’t win the big one, Harmon Killebrew is too quiet, Rod Carew is self-absorbed … the list goes on and on. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Download attachment: fans_boo-425x277.jpg (There are forces at work here that are slicker and far more powerful than subjective analysis. It feels like it has to do with the human need for entertainment, or drama, or our self-identity forcing us from one side to the other to find our niche. I have to believe some bright person has studied this – the ebbs and flows of fame in a celebrity culture. If anyone knows of any books on this, I’d love to hear about them.) I’ve defended Mauer consistently throughout his career. Most recently, it was an ongoing topic on the Gleeman and the Geek podcast for most of this offseason. The last time I wrote extensively about fan reaction to Mauer was just before his breakout 2009 season, in a story titled “I Was Promised Superstar.” If you have a minute, I think it’s worth the click. It recaptures the Mauer debate four years ago, and it’s funny how it has changed and how it hasn’t. What hasn’t changed is the “health” debate. That was a concern eight years ago, and it’s a concern now, though the early returns this year appear positive. Whatever preparation or medical treatments Mauer has undergone are paying off, but I wonder if the important change wasn’t one of philosophy. Prior to this year, there was a “Iron Horse” stubbornness about how often Mauer should play catcher, certainly fromh Mauer and possibly with the organization. Catching wears down a player. (In fact, we studied how that hurt Mauer’s performance a couple of years ago.) This year, he’s playing every day, but “resting” at first base and designated hitter. And the overall results have been good. The other debate that might benefit from a change in philosophy is the “power” debate. It seemingly went away in 2009 when Mauer hit 28 home runs on his way to the AL MVP award. It came back in 2010 when the Twins moved to Target Field and opposite field home runs became the stuff of fairy tales. In 2009, most of Mauer’s power was opposite field home runs. He’s hit just 14 home runs since the move to Target Field, and only two within its confines. To change that trend would require pulling the ball, a change that the uber-patient Mauer seems reluctant to even attempt. It’s also worth noting that while it’s fun to cite “Games Played” statistics and what he’s batting with runners in scoring position, the overall impact numbers like WPA show that the fans know better than stats. Mauer hasn’t had a particularly positive impact on games this year. Friday night’s game (in which he demonstrated some power with a double and triple) was what finally lifted him to an impact above “historically mediocre.” If you’re wondering why fans have booed Mauer, that might be explanation enough. He generated enormous expectations, cashed in on those enormous expectations, and in what should be his prime years he isn’t living up to them. Add to that a reluctance to change his philosophy, whether it be pulling the ball or swinging at a first strike. Finally, he’s also the face of a franchise – another role which he signed up for and for which he is richly compensated – which appears to be exiting its golden era. Add that up, and you get frustration, and frustration, not ignorance, is why fans boo. Click here to view the article

Even just looking back at the last 10 or so stories, I find several worth featuring. Download attachment: hope-08-600-b1.jpg Remember, if you're not checking out the blog page, you're missing a lot of up-and-coming independent baseball writers. This weekend's entries had a common theme: hope. Looking for some immediate hope? James Richter has it for you, and shows we have pretty short memories. Looking for more hope, but maybe a couple years down the road? Jim Crikket looks to Iowa and the latest series that top prospect Miguel Sano just had. If you're willing to look further in the distance (and much further away), Jnygaard looks at Puerto Rican prospects that the Twins might target in the amateur draft. Finally, if you're looking for hope in the unlikeliest of places, how about in Luis Perdomo's beard? Click here to view the article

Download attachment: baseball-in-snow.jpg Aaron and John talk about braving the blizzard in the name of podcasting, Anthony Swarzak's horseplay, Scott Diamond's setback, the Twins' pitching curse, Joe Saunders choosing "dollars and years" somewhere else, where the Twins' farm system ranks, reaching 500,000 downloads, bad mug shots, The Voice of Reason's evil twin, Lifetime Hockey's annual camp, and drinking vodka like water. Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe andthe podcast on iTunes.Or listen by clicking below....[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Tickle Me Pink.jpg Aaron sips a pink libation. John begs their listeners to take a quick survery for recruiting sponsors. Then they chat about whether Sam Deduno belong, whether the Twins can and should re-sign Scott Baker, how one characterizes the starting pitching market, Liam Hendriks first "W," the MLB television deal and what it means for the Twins payroll, the switch from Beloit to Cedar Rapids, and honors bestowed by Baseball America on some Twins prospects. Then they answer mailbag about the Minnesota Twins and compare blogging to podcasting. the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe andthe podcast on iTunes.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Download attachment: outfield_k_strikeout_signs_610x.jpg Aaron and John talk about once again rooting for the worst team in the league, why Francisco Liriano is like religion, what defines an "A" or "B" prospect in trade talks, how passing on Mark Appel makes even more sense now, celebrating our 50th episode, Matt Capps' return, Carl Pavano's non-return, Aaron's refined drinking habits, and a whole bunch of mailbag questions from listeners via Twitter. Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe andthe podcast on iTunes.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

If the Twins want to sign Francisco Liriano to an extension, it will need to be in the parameters of what Liriano will make on the free agent market this winter. But its hard to know even roughly how much he’ll command. Partly that’s because of his mercurial performance. But that problem is compounded by a free agent class that is unprecedented in pitching depth.Download attachment: liriano.jpg It starts with two 28-year-olds, right-hander Zach Greinke and left-hander Cole Hamels that are both better than anyone in last year’s class. They both could reach nine figure deals with yearly salaries that approach $20M per year. But the really remarkable variable about the free agent class is the next level. There is a glut of “potential” star pitchers and Liriano falls into that class. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Anibal Sanchez – The Marlins right-hander is just 28, and has thrown 195+ innings with a mid 3s ERA the last two years. He looks similarly strong this year. Shaun Marcum – The Brewers 30-year-old right-hander has a 3.56 ERA over the last three years and has averaged about 200 innings the last two of years. But lately he’s shelved with a sore elbow. Jake Peavy - The 2007 Cy Young winner has been injured a lot the past several years, but has finally regained his form with the White Sox with a 2.96 ERA (and 101 K). Colby Lewis – the Rangers right-hander who has struck out 455 batters and in 500 innings over the last 2.5 years – but who is now out with “forearm tightness”. Dan Haren – After posting an ERA of 3.08 over the last two years with the Angels, the 31-year-old right-hander struggled this year. He recently admitted he’s had lower back pain all season and may find the DL. His performance over the last couple of months may determine if the Angels pick up his $15M option. Ervin Santana – Like Liriano, Santana has had good years and bad years. The last two, where he threw 451.2 innings with a 3.65 ERA were very good years. This year, where he has a 5.12 ERA is not so much. He’s not even 30 yet. Liriano, who currently has 5.40 ERA and 76K in 76.2 IP slots in somewhere among these pitchers. He’s probably been the least consisten, but he’s also one of the youngest. He has never posted the inning totals that these guys have. But he’s also the only left-hander in this group. Finally, it’s also worth noting that I haven’t included a slew of other pitchers, some of whom might even be more enticing to teams looking for “inning eaters”: Kyle Lohse, Joe Saunders, Randy Wolf, Carl Pavano, Kevin Correia, Derek Lowe, Carlos Zambrano, Fausto Carmona and Daisuke Matsuzaka. So how much could Liriano expect, provided he continues to be effective? The guys I bullet pointed above could all expect multiyear offers for $10M+ per year any other year. Injuries and late season performances could change that. So could the depth of the market. Liriano would likely be on the low end of that group, but his age could be a factor in allowing a longer-term deal. Three years and $27M “feels” about right. But there are a ton of unknowns. If some teams really want a left-hander, he could go higher. If the market dries up after the first half dozen guys sign, he could go lower or for fewer years. Plus, there is his performance in July through September. If he wants to cash in now and avoid all that, one would think the price of an extension might be a little lower. But there is another lesson here too. The Twins, should they choose to spend some money, have a historically deep free agent class to rebuild their rotation. While the focus is likely to be Greinke or Hamels, there is a lot of value in that next tier – someone is going to fall out of that group and get a lower contract than we anticipate. And there are a lot of other average pitchers (such as Pavano) who might find themselves standing without a chair when the music stops. If the Twins choose to try and extend Liriano, they place their bet early. It might make more sense to wait until the market sorts itself out and be aggressive later. Click here to view the article

sponsored by Ticket King Download attachment: Cabrera_Miguel_Sliding_US_720.jpg Your first place Minnesota Twins? Not yet, but with Detroit coming to town retaining a one-game lead, you could be hearing that phrase as early as tonight. In fact, if you don’t hear it Friday night, you might need to wait a while, because the Tigers are bringing out their big guns for games two and three. Granted, it's a pitifully low standard, but a game for first place, even in April, allows a guy to fool oneself that it means something. That’s my #5 reason to grab a great seat to tonight’s game at Target Field . But there are more: Download attachment: AL Central Standings 2014-04-24.JPG #4 – Get ‘Em BEFORE They’re Hot The Tigers scored the second most runs in MLB last year. This year they’re 27th on that list. Read that last sentence again. To be sure, they had some defections from their lineup, starting with Prince Fielder, who was traded to Texas for Ian Kinsler - but Kinsler really replaces Omar Infante, who signed with the Royals. The Tigers also lost Jhonny Peralta and then lost his replacement, Jose Iglesias, for the season with stress fractures in both of his legs. Their team OPS is almost 50 points lower than they finished last year. But that OPS is still 732, which is slightly higher than the Twins 730 OPS, and would be good for eighth in MLB. Detroit’s real problem is that they have only hit .212 with runners in scoring position. Coincidentally (or not) that also ranks 27th in MLB. That’s not likely to continue. A team that’s hitting .265 overall (6th place) is likely to see their clutch hitting progress to the mean, and with it, their offense. A turn against the Twins starting rotation might be just the thing to spark them. So I'm getting a ticket for Friday, before the Tigers get hot. #3 – Avoid the Aces The Tigers have a hell of a poker hand, getting dealt three aces in Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez and Justin Verlander. The latter two will take the hill on Saturday and Sunday vs. Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson. I like a challenge as much as the next guy, but criminy…. Friday night’s game is a little more reasonable. Kevin Correia, who is the heavy favorite to win “Twins Man-crush Who They Will Angrily Justify Re-signing To A Stupid Contract This Offseason” Award, will face Rick Porcello. Porcello is no slouch – he’s sporting a nifty 3.15 ERA this year – but he also hasn’t won a Cy Young Award or ERA title yet. I’ll choose the game he starts. #2 – Sun > Rain I wouldn’t mind seeing Verlander pitch on Sunday, but there is no guarantee that we would see him pitch. Paul Douglas is describing it as “Cloudy and Soggy. I’ll take the highs of 65 on Friday and Saturday instead, thank you very much. #1 – The Offseason In Minnesota Is Long Download attachment: Fur Bomber Hat.JPG No, I’m not talking about the fact that the Twins season has basically been over by mid-August for the last three years. I’m talking about the insanely long and bitter winter, when wearing a Twins cap for any extended period of time leads to your ears CLIMBING INSIDE OF YOUR HEAD TO BEAT YOU ABOUT THE BRAIN REPEATEDLY. The Twins have a solution and it’s being given to the first 10,000 fans who show up to the Friday night game where the Twins take back the AL Central, however briefly. We’ll see you there. ~~~ It seems like Minnesota agrees with me. You're going to want to get your tickets early, because tickets are scarce for Friday's tilt, with the cheapest being $19 at TicketKingOnline.com. Saturday, you'll find a lot more, with tickets starting at $12, with plenty on the lower level. Or, if you're a gambler by nature (or happy to come back later in the year for a possible rainout) you can find tickets for Target Field on Sunday for just $7. Plus, if you use the promo code DAILYDOUBLE, you’ll be supporting Twins Daily and get 10% off. Whatever your needs, your local ticket supplier, Ticket King, can help. ~~~ Click here to view the article