John Bonnes

~ Sponsored by Switch My Trip ~ Download attachment: Plouffe_Trevor_face_US_720.jpg From condemnation to redemption. Trevor Plouffe traveled that path over the span of three innings in Wednesday’s win over the Rays. It also appears he may be well along that path in his Twins career. It isn’t often that a player goes from goat to hero in the same game, but Plouffe did Wednesday, and thus wins our Big Switch award this week. Plouffe had the most damaging at-bat and the most valuable at-bat for the Twins – and believe it or not, we can measure these things. Sabrmetrics has come up with a nifty statistic called Win Probability Added (WPA) that never would have been practical in a world before computers. It’s easiest to understand if you start at the back of the acronym and work forward: it measures how much a player ADDS to the PROBABILITY of a WIN. Here’s how it works: ~ The Twins are looking to switchthings around this year. Every week, Metro Transit recognizes a Twins player who successfully switched the outcome of a game for the better. ~ Something like 30 years of baseball games were broken down at-bat by at-bat. Each situation was noted: the difference in score, the inning, the outs, and which bases are occupied. The total number of games that ever had that situation was counted. And then the total number of times the team that was in that situation won was counted. The result is a very precise percentage that indicates historically how likely a team is to win a game given a situation. Let’s use Plouffe’s at-bat in the ninth inning to show you how it works. You can follow along on the Fan Graphs site, which elegantly tracks games this way, play by play and in a summary. When Plouffe strode to the plate in the top of the ninth inning, the Twins had lost a 4-4 lead but were threatening to push the deciding run across the plate. Sam Fuld had opened the inning with a double and had advanced to third base on Brian Dozier’s ground ball. Joe Mauer had been walked to set up the double play. Download attachment: Big Switch Plouffe Fan Graphs.JPG Teams in that situation – tie game, top half of the ninth inning, runners on the corners, one out – had won 69.2% of their games. But when Plouffe obliged with a sharply hit ball to the shortstop that turned into an inning-ending double-play, the scales turned completely. Historically, the chances of winning a game going into the bottom of the ninth tied are only 37.4% Plouffe’s double-play had cost the Twins 32% of Wednesday’s game. But it didn’t cost them the game. Because Casey Fien escaped a bases loaded jam in the bottom of the ninth. He then held the Rays without a hit in the tenth and eleventh innings. Fien, by the way, is the unheralded hero of that game. Nobody contributed more to that win. His heroics also gave Plouffe another chance in the 12th inning. This time Plouffe came through. Mauer led off the 12th with a soft infield single to start the rally. Colabello got the accolades two batter later, finishing off a four RBI night that tied a record for the most RBI in April by a Twins player. But it was Plouffe’s double in between the hits that most helped the Twins win. That knock moved the needle from the Twins having 58% chance to win to an 82% chance. While Colabello provided four RBI and a viral video, it was Plouffe’s double that turned the 12th inning from interesting to inevitable. Plouffe has become far more interesting, too. We’ve seen a hot streak from him before; he hit 13 home runs in the span of a month in 2012. But we’ve never seen this combination of power, average and plate discipline from him before. Most encouraging is that he’s hitting right-handed pitching. Over his career, he’s flashed power against right-handers, but holds just a .232 batting average, including 234 strikeouts compared to just 77 walks. This year? He’s hitting .327 with as many walks as strikeouts (12). Plouffe entered the year with a question hovering over his career: how soon before uber-prospect Miguel Sano takes third base from him? If Plouffe continues to hit like this, the same question exists, but it’s no longer a threat; the way Plouffe is hitting now, his bat would play at just about any spot on the field. From condemnation to redemption – in a game, and maybe in a career. That is indeed A Big Switch. ~~~ Why fight traffic and parking? Say ‘Switch My Trip’for the next Twins game. Metro Transit can provide you and your whole family a train ride to the game. Planning your trip is as easy as clicking on this link. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: MNBlogCon_small.jpg Aaron and John podcast from the MN Blogger Conference and review their preseason over/under picks, talk about Twins payroll, discuss Justin Morneau's chances of returning, miss October baseball games and finally have special guest David Brauer join to talk about where blogging and journalism are going, for good or bad. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Download attachment: handbook-cover.jpg We're VERY happy to announce that we have released the TwinsCentric 2013 Offseason Handbook! If you pre-ordered, you should have already received your email with download instructions. If you haven't - we're sorry, but the pre-sale discount price of $6.95 has expired. It is now full price, but that still means just $9.95 to help the offseason be nearly as much fun (and in the Twins case, probably more fun) than the season. http://www.e-junkie.com/ej/ej_add_to_cart.gif [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]This marks the fourth iteration of our increasingly popular annual offseason guide, and we're focused on making it our best yet. As usual, we'll be putting you in the shoes of the Twins' general manager with this jam-packed ebook, providing all the resources necessary to make the offseason fly by. Among the sections housed within, you'll find: [*=left]a foreword by Aaron Gleeman [*=left]a detailed organizational depth chart, [*=left]an in-depth interview with Terry Ryan, [*=left]listings of free agents at every position (including the crowded starting pitching market), [*=left]various trade targets, [*=left]reviews of the other teams in the division, [*=left]essays on hot offseason topics, and [*=left]tons more. It's all delivered with the signature analysis and snark you've come to expect from the TwinsCentric goofs, and with a much-improved visual presentation. (Just check out the accompanying example to see what we mean.) We're confident that it will be the best baseball investment you’ll make this year. Still a little leery about buying an e-book? We get it. How about a free sample? For those who are interested, download a sample of the 2013 Offseason Handbook now. We’re confident you’ll see what we’re talking about. http://www.e-junkie.com/ej/ej_add_to_cart.gif or DOWNLOAD A SAMPLE Download attachment: handbook-interior.jpg The Handbook is going to be an fun, engrossing, comprehensive read and an indispensable tool for wannabe GMs and casual fans alike as we enter a hugely important offseason. Don't be left behind – click below to order your copy (or copies!) with PayPal or a credit card through our simple and secure checkout process. http://www.e-junkie.com/ej/ej_add_to_cart.gif http://www.e-junkie.com/ej/ej_view_cart.gif Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Dozier.jpg Aaron and John talk about Brian Dozier's demotion to Triple-A, Nick Blackburn's ongoing awfulness, whether the Twins are collapsing down the stretch again, the latest "day-to-day" injury proving anything but, where and when Chris Parmelee will play, KFAN producer Ryan Donaldson's puking story, and preparing for the return to full-time podcasting. Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe andthe podcast on iTunes.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

It’s still early in spring training – early enough so that our eyes could be fooling us from this bright sun thing – but maybe there’s some hope for the Twins bullpen after all. Download attachment: 8-29-09+160.jpg The bullpen has been a sore spots for Twins fans for…wow…how long has it been? This offseason, obviously. Last season, for sure. 2010 was a bit of respite, though there was enough panic to trade away Ramos Wilson for Matt Capps. In 2009 it struggled beyond Joe Nathan and Matt Guerrier. 2008 was REALLY bad up until Jose Mijares was given a role for the last two weeks of September. In 2007…ok…I’ll let you decide where you want to draw the line, but it’s fair to say it’s been a sore spot several times recently. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] It looked to be so again this year, especially when free agent Joel Zumaya was injured which caused some bloggers to lose their cool. (Justifiably, I would argue.) It looked like the bullpen was going to be manned by - let’s make sure I quote this right – “either a member of last year's shaky corps or a waiver or minor-league pickup.” That’s still true. But some of those pickups are producing some surprising results, especially when it comes to some strikeouts. With three spots likely open in the bullpen, three guys – two right-handers and one left-hander – have shined in early contests. Jared Burton was scavenged from the Cincinnati Reds, courtesy of a shoulder injury and a hyperthyroid condition that cost him most of the last two years. That doesn’t change the fact that the 30-year-old right-hander has earned a 3.41 ERA in the majors over 169 innings. “Hits” are not a trustworthy stat in spring training, but the fact that Burton hasn’t given up any in his four relief outings, while striking out four and walking just one at least puts him on the right path. Left-hander Matt Maloney, statistically, looks like the most exciting option. Cincinnati was also kind enough to contribute Maloney to the roster this offseason, though at least it cost the Twins a 40-man roster spot this time. In the majors, Maloney has mostly been used as a starter, but in his relief appearances, he’s struck out 21 batters in 24 innings, with just six walks (albeit 28 hits). This spring he’s dominated, striking out eight in 5.1 innings, while walking just one and giving up just three hits. Those are numbers that can’t be ignored, no matter which inning one is pitching. Speaking of “which inning one is pitching,” Jeff Manship has steadily been working his way from the late innings to the early innings in spring training games – an indication that manager Ron Gardenhire wants him to face better competition. He’s earned it. In his four appearances, he’s struck out six, walked none and given up just two hits. Both times I’ve seen him, his strike outs came on a what Seth Stohs describes as a “spiked slider.’ I have no idea what that mean, but I love the name, and I love the way it ends up at a batters ankles as he swings. Manship has been with the Twins for years, making a few appearances with the big league club, looking mostly mediocre, both as a starter and a reliever. His biggest weakness has been that he just plain gave up a lot of hits. That wasn’t a weakness in the minors, and a strikeout rate in AAA nearing 7 per nine innings – mostly as a starter – indicates he could take a significant step up given the chance to relieve. For instance, Joe Nathan averaged 7.2 K/9 in AAA, also as a starter. Of course, Nathan had that nasty slider – but Manship also looks like he’s got his “spiked slider” and I’ve heard reports of a top shelf curveball, too. (Though, maybe they’re talking about the same thing. It’s hard to tell sometimes.) The point remains: if Manship can stay healthy – and the same goes for Maloney and Burton, knock, knock – the Twins bullpen, on the shoulders (literally) of some washouts and pickups, could look like a strength a month from now. Click here to view the article

Today’s mystery category? Let’s see if you can guess from the clues… Download attachment: baseball-money.jpg "What are the Twins television revenues?" "Why is everybody bitching about a $100 million payroll?" "Why couldn't the Twins sign Prince Fielder?" If you didn’t get it, don’t be too hard on yourself - it’s a little convoluted. The category is “What questions avoid THE question?” In Twins Territory, THE question has been: why did payroll go down $15 million following the second year of a publicly funded stadium? [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]But because MLB teams keep their financial information so private, journalists are limited in the information they can dig up. Since that information doesn’t give the whole story - and because they want to share that information that they’ve uncovered - they find other questions so they can still publish the story. Or, they list what they found, and refer to it generally, but offer few specifics. My pithy intro might suggest I’m being critical of that strategy. I’m not - for two good reasons. First, because these are usually fine questions to answer, and every answer adds a piece to the puzzle. Second, because I‘m about to do much the same thing. On Friday night, in a Q&A session at the end of the Hot Stove Banquet, Twins President Dave St. Peter answered THE question candidly, if generally. He listed 3 factors: 1) The Twins stretched payroll slightly last year, and so the reduction isn't really $15M over last year's budget. The last signing of last year's offseason was Carl Pavano, who signed for $8M. At the time, the Twins claimed they stretched a little to make that signing, and before that signing they were still looking into other players, albeit less expensive ones. So let's assume that accounts for $2-3M of the difference. 2) The Twins will need to pay more for draft picks then they did last year. Last year the Twins paid about $3M for their top draft picks. This year the Twins will have five picks in the top 75. Thanks to the new collective bargaining agreement, we know almost exactly how much those picks should cost: about $11M. That's $8M plus $2-3M from stretching last year and now the Twins are down ~$10-11M. We have $4-5M left to find. 3) Finally, St. Peter anticipates a drop in revenue. He clarified this a few minutes later when he said that revenues from the ballpark tend to normalize on a per capita basis. In other words, as the novelty of a new ballpark wears off, people spend less on each trip to the ballpark. (By the way, the Twins also revealed during the media luncheon on Friday that they only anticipate about a 4% decrease in season tickets this year.) That makes sense. Since payroll is supposed to be about 50% of the total revenue, a $4-5M decrease in payroll would reflect an $8-10M decrease in revenue. That seems high to me, but not totally unreasonable, especially when St. Peter added that they aren't budgeting for 3,000,000 in attendance this year. (That last note, by the way, could further explain Phil Mackey’s story about Jim Pohlad taking a “wait-and-see” approach. When I read that story, I was outraged: ownership was expecting fans to make a financial commitment but wasn’t willing to make one itself. Reading between the lines, I wonder if the story isn’t a little different. After last year’s disaster, and with so much uncertainty, ownership directed management to use more conservative models for anticipated revenue. The effect is the same, and it’s essentially what Mackey’s sources said, but somehow this infuriates me less.) This shouldn't be meant to imply that I approve, or even completely understand. For instance, I still believe it is pennywise and pound foolish to not invest and additional $2M in backup plans at two especially questionable roster spots. And it isn't clear to me why some of that decrease isn't offset by increases in shared national revenues, which consistently increase for MLB teams. I still haven’t answered the question. But it gets us closer, and leads to some good news/bad news. The bad news is that the Pohlads are not the Ilitchs - they run a business as a business, and not as a charitable organization, no matter how much fun it would be to win a World Series. But it also implies that two of those three cuts should be one-time events. Hopefully so will this payroll reduction. Which may have been the real $15,000,000 question I wanted answered. Click here to view the article

"My gawd - THEY are afraid of US? Really?" That's the thought that went through my head last night when a flame war broke out on Twitter between two local groups that had established a uneasy truce in recent years: corporate media and independent writers, commonly labeled bloggers. The critical topic? Baseball. Download attachment: Printing Press.jpg Or rather, that’s the subject matter about which the involved parties write. The topic was the power of independent writers and the checks and balances from which they are seemingly immune. Concern 1: Independent writers are just fans who benefit from having a very large platform. It's true. Some independent writers have very big platforms from which they can distribute their messages. In fact, yesterday, Twins Daily, a site that hosts independent baseball writers, announced they have drawn 34,000 unique visitors to view half a million pages since they launched five weeks ago. So yeah, they have a hell of a big soap box. But that platform was not handed to them by a media entity established decades before by writers who built up an audience. Rather, the independent writer IS the person who built up the audience. They find themselves free to do with it what they want. Concern 2: Independent writers don't have the same accountability of corporate journalists. It's true. Journalists can be fired for their mistakes, but not independent writers. Know why? Because independent writers never asked to be hired. They are not dependent on pleasing anyone other than their audience. Their livelihood likely isn't even dependent on that. Their audience decides how accountable they need to be, not their corporate masters. Like any writer, if they screw up, they can publicly mocked and condemned. I wonder if they'll be able to handle that? Concern 3: Independent writers don't appreciate the value of Access and the accuracy it brings. It's true. Access can increase accuracy, provided those being interviewed feel like telling the truth. But one cannot have that Access without accepting compromises, whether it be trying to steer clear of a public relations doberman or hesitating to criticize a player whom one personally admires. Indeed, navigating these challenges is the art of journalism. Since the independent writers don't have that Access, they've taught themselves how to live without it and still find compelling content and an audience. In fact, most who have achieved a certain level don't want that Access. They'll trade any accuracy it includes for objectivity, thanks very much. (Incidentally, the people who want the independent writers to appreciate that Access are precisely the same groups that work so hard to deny it: the baseball teams and the journalists.) The bad news is that the concerns are real. The media is damn astute to be nervous about the power the independent writers wield right now. They're popular, they don't give a crap about Access and they're beholden to no one. The worse news is that they helped create them. But I do have some good news for concerned corporate journalists who want to enjoy all those same benefits. It's one easy step away. Just quit your jobs. After you find other income, devise compelling stories which are not fed to you by player or coach quotes, and write independently for several years with no compensation, you might just establish an audience. Then you too can be criticized by the corporate journalists. And feared. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: MLBDraft.jpg Aaron and John talk about Byron Buxton versus Mark Appel versus Carlos Correa, why Monday is the most important day of the Twins' season, first-hand scouting reports on Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, and the Beloit team from special guest Seth Stohs, how Carl Pavano is the new Shannon Stewart, what to make of Francisco Liriano's impressive start, their PickPointz MVP picks, Ben Revere's bunting, and how Aaron looks in a black evening gown. Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Download attachment: baseball_money.jpg How low can it go? Not a whole lot lower. According to USAToday, the Minnesota Twins dropped their payroll $18.5M from last year ($112M) to this year ($94M). And while the mantra coming out of Target Field is that “payroll isn’t that important” ask youself: where this team would be with another $18.5M worth of starting pitching? That’s the bad news, but it’s old bad news. The worse (and new) news is that the team is again in last place and attendance is down again. Would that mean further payroll cuts? [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] If it does, there are only so deep they can cut, because barring some trades, a quick-and-dirty analysis shows the Twins are committed to at least a $76M payroll. The back-of-the-napkin details are on the right. Download attachment: 2013 Payroll v2.jpg If the Twins don’t cut payroll at all, that gives them just $18M to put towards acquiring two or three starting pitchers. And if they do? Then you can expect a lot more of what we’ve seen this year: cycling through AAA starting pitchers in the hopes they can find someone who sticks. Because AAA starting pitchers will be all they can afford. I suspect it also means that any fantasies of hanging onto Francisco Liriano. At the very least, it makes it difficult to imagine the Twins offering him a $12.5M one-year contract to make sure the Twins get draft picks as he walks as a free agent. That much liquid payroll can’t be sucked up by just one player where there are so many gaps in the rotation. That is, if there is any available. If the Twins cut payroll again, Twins fans could face the very grim reality of watching a starting rotation that is actually worse that this years squad, which ranks 29th in ERA in the majors. How low can it go? Not a whole lot lower. But low enough. Click here to view the article

Sponsored by Snyder Gislason Frasier LLC Baseball, bourbon, great legal minds and the end of TV blackout rules as we know them. If that sounds like a pretty good night, well, you missed it. I however, did not. So, let's recap.... The partners of Snyder Gislason Frasier (a.k.a. The Law Geeks) - Chad Snyder, Adam Gislason and Mike Frasier - invited me out to share the finer things in life and parse through the broader implications of two class-action lawsuits. The suits were brought by fans against Major League Baseball,[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] the NHL, Comcast and DirectTV -- Garber et al v. Office of the Commissioner of Major League Baseball and Laumann et al v. National Hockey League -- which were consolidated in 2012. The plaintiffs (fans) claim that sports franchises, that should be in competition, conspire to establish territorial TV rights with television distributors. As a result, they can charge enormous fees for people who want to watch out-of-market games. There is no debate about whether this really happens - even MLB admits it - although the distributors claim to be bystanders in this process. In fact, this has been a topic on Twins Daily forums. For instance, Cedar Rapids is about a four-hour drive from Target Field AND the home of the Twins Low-A minor league club, the Cedar Rapids Kernels. But local residents there can't get Fox Sports North on cable so they are not able to watch Twins games that way. They are ALSO officially within the blackout area of MLB.TV, so they can't get those games as an out-of-market option either. The Kernels can't tune into a Twins game, either as in in-market or out-of-market option, in their clubhouse. (But it actually gets more ridiculous for Minnesota's southern neighbors. MLB.TV considers the entire state of Iowa to be "in-market" for SIX major league teams: the Twins, Brewers, Cubs, White Sox, Royals and Cardinals. Iowa residents are at the mercy of the few cable stations that want to extend that far.) But just because it's true, doesn't mean it's legal or illegal. Although the fans’ case against MLB is a unique one, in the past, MLB has killed suits brought against it before they got off the ground using a unique defense – the “baseball antitrust exemption” i.e., unlike most other businesses, federal and state antitrust laws don't apply to them. You may have heard that baseball is a legal monopoly, but that isn't entirely true. The truth is considerably more gray. In the 1920s, the Supreme Court ruled that MLB games were not subject to federal antitrust laws. This ruling was later affirmed in the 1950’s by the Supreme Court, which, to use a football term, punted the question to Congress. Since then, including the Flood case, courts have not shown a willingness to expand on that ruling. And both the NHL and NFL have been shot down when trying to get the Supreme Court to apply the same broad antitrust exemptions applied to them. It looks like MLB didn't want to risk something similar befalling its exemption, because it didn't hide behind that standard defense when the suit was filed in 2012. That may have been because its lawyers aren't sure the courts, including the Supreme Court if it gets that far, will follow the prior Supreme Court decisions this time around the bases. "There are indications that the Supreme Court, as it's currently comprised, might not feel restricted by previous rulings," says Chad. Choosing not to claim antitrust exemption backfired, as it meant the suit was not dismissed and instead has been involved in two years of discovery. Recently, though, MLB claimed that the antitrust exemption "includes its territorial league structure and live video rules." That opens the door for a much higher stakes game, one that could even include a trip back to the Supreme Court. Not that TV rights aren't high stakes all by themselves; between how local television contracts have recently changed the landscape of team revenues AND the rise in profits and valuation of MLB Advanced Media, this suit could radically change a multi-billion dollar revenue stream. However, its effect could go even beyond that if MLB's nebulous antitrust exemption is further defined. One of the last times any official ruling was made on baseball's antitrust exemption, it led to the federal Curt Flood Act of 1998, which helped solidify free agency. The Curt Flood Act changed baseball's business forever, limited MLB's antitrust reach, but also recognized that there was at least some antitrust considerations upon which to reflect. If both sides get to the point where a ruling on the antitrust designation of MLB is challenged, far more than just TV revenues is jeopardized. This is unlikely to happen. "Given what is at stake for both sides, the current class actions will likely end in a settlement," suggested Adam, a common conclusion for these types of suits. "But a settlement will likely include changing how the industry currently works," added Mike. Just what those changes could look like is anyone's guess. Baseball fans in several regions have been victimized by the momentum of the current system. It's likely time for an overhaul. Perhaps this suit will encourage baseball to face the challenge head on. ------ Snyder Gislason Frasier LLC is a Minneapolis-based law firm committed to providing personalized service to their clients while cheering for the Minnesota Twins. Their talented lawyers can help you find innovative solutions to legal issues in many areas, including general business law, litigation, contracts, family law, employment law, and entertainment law. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Mauer_Joe_FirstBase_US_720.jpg Aaron and John review a plethora of weird roster moves, wonder about the impact of Joe Mauer's bat, discuss pineapple sauce with Lindsay Guentzel, endorse Eduardo Escobar, compare John's facial hair to Jack Morris' and interview Aaron's favorite bartender at Stella's. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]~~~ Sunday's win was big because it gave the Twins a series victory heading into a long and difficult road trip. It was also big because it gives YOU 50% off your order from PapaJohns.com on Monday with the promo code "TWINSWIN." ~~~ Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Hughes.jpg Similar to the consumption habits of most Americans during Thanksgiving, the Minnesota Twins are devouring free agent starting pitching at a frenzied pace. On Wednesday, it was Ricky Nolasco. On Saturday, the Star Tribune’s LaVelle Neal reported that they were in agreement with Phil Hughes on a three-year deal. The deal, which is contingent on a physical that Hughes must pass, is a three-year, $24 million contract. Hughes' numbers, both last year and over his career, are underwhelming. He was 4-14 last year with a 5.19 ERA and is 56-50 with a 4.54 ERA for his career. His strikeout rate is mediocre (7.6 K/9 for his career) and he has been hurt by home runs, especially lately (59 home runs in 337 IP over the last two years). But there are several caveats to those numbers that made Hughes attractive to other teams, including the Royals, Marlins and Mets. The Twins have been targeting him since at least July. You may also remember that Hughes was mentioned as part of the package the Twins requested from the Yankees during the Johan Santana trade talks. That's a pretty good place to start with why Hughes remains in favor despite recent struggles. In 2008, the Yankees weren’t willing to trade Hughes for Santana. Read that last sentence again. Actually, let me rewrite it, with the hidden words shown. In 2008 (eight years into their “drought” of not winning a championship), the Yankees (for whom dollars are nothing more than monopoly money) were not willing to trade (21-year-old pitching prospect) Hughes (with all of 72 innings of major league experience) for Santana (who had finished in the top five of Cy Young voting for four consecutive years). That speaks to exactly how highly Hughes was thought of. And it’s not like the Yankees had too much pitching. Their starting rotation was mediocre (16th in ERA in MLB) and their winningest pitcher was Chien-Ming Wang. Santana was exactly the guy they needed, and all they needed to do was swap some prospect for him and pay him, just like the Mets did. But they wouldn’t part with Hughes. Hughes was one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, and was projected to become the new ace of the Yankees staff as early as 2008, starting to fill in for the aging arms of Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens, all of whom were over 35. But a fractured rib derailed 2008 and raised questions about his durability, which we’ll get to later. Part way through 2009 he was moved to the Yankees' bullpen, where he was outstanding, helping the Yankees win their only World Series title of the millennium. He returned to the rotation in 2010, where it became apparent he was a poor fit for Yankee Stadium. Hughes is an extreme fly ball pitcher, and right-handed, which makes Yankee Stadium’s short right field porch his bane. His career ERA pitching in the two Yankees Stadiums is 4.96, versus 4.10 on the road. The difference? He’s given up more than twice as many home runs at home. The hope is that escaping from New York, whether it be the ballpark, the media or the expectations, will allow Hughes to become the pitcher everyone expected five years ago. That hope might be even more realized if his home park is Target Field. Because he was so young when promoted by the Yankees, he will be only 27 years old through the first half of the 2014 season. He’s entering his prime. From a raw stuff standpoint, he’s solid (7.5 K/9 and 92.4 mph fastball last year), has good control (2.6 BB/9) and isn’t afraid to throws strikes (66.7% of first-pitch strikes over the last four years). The biggest concern is his durability. He’s battled some nagging back and shoulder issues, but has made 61 starts over the last two years, throwing 337 innings. Hughes represents a calculated risk/reward move for the Twins. If the move away from NYC works, he has the potential to be a solid #2 starter for the next few years at a relative bargain price. And then he can hit the free agent market as a 30-year-old for a big pay day. If not, the Twins are overpaying a back-of-the-rotation pitcher, an asset of which they already have a glut. There are big numbers on both sides of the ratio, but the Twins can afford the risk and desperately need the reward. It also means the Twins are likely done adding pitching. At least three spots in the rotation are now spoken for by free agents signed the last two years: Ricky Nolasco, Kevin Correia and Hughes. It seems likely Samuel Deduno, who posted a 3.83 ERA last year before being sidelined with a shoulder problem, will also have a spot if he shows he’s healthy. That leaves a last spot for several younger pitchers with lesser track records, like Scott Diamond, Vance Worley, Kyle Gibson and Andrew Albers. Click here to view the article

Twins Daily is not an online newspaper. I know – it sure looks like one. That’s how we fool you. That’s how we draw you closer to the trap. But our stories are just the surface of the water, and if have the gumption to reach out, you’ll find out what’s just under the surface.Start by commenting on a story. I promise – it won’t hurt. Twins Daily has the most respectful, civil and intelligent discussions you’ll find in sports, or maybe on any topic. (We maintain that civility by making you register to leave a comment.) Then check out our forums. Here you’ll be able to learn a lot more about the Twins than just what makes it to the front page. Members are posting links to Twins news stories, blogs, minor league results, farm reports, etc. You can also add to these or ask a question, even start your own thread about whatever topic or story you like. There is also our minor leagues – the Blogs page. You may like some of these stories or you may not, but there is always new content being posted there by some talented writers. And if you would like to try your own hand at writing, you can create your own blog from that page, too. It will appear on the Blogs page, and if it’s a good story, you may find it promoted to the front page alongside the rest of our writers where thousands of Twins fans can read it and comment… and the cycle begins again. See what I mean? Twins Daily isn’t an online newspaper - it’s a community. And you are welcome. Click here to view the article

If The Twins Are Willing To Trade Justin Morneau This Offseason, There Should Be Options Download attachment: justin-morneau.jpg Last week, as the trade deadline approached, Justin Morneau was featured in the latest trade rumors. That made sense. First, Morneau had been productive and healthy. Second, Chris Parmelee is raking at first base in AAA but shut out in the majors. Finally, Morneau is still owed about $19M for the rest of this year and next. Moving him would give the Twins that much more money to spend on pitching this offseason. No deal was consummated, and it doesn’t sound like one was close, but that doesn’t mean the end of the rumors. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] They’ll flow into this offseason and will likely gain additional steam because this year the crop of free agent first basemen is so bleak. There is no Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols or even a Paul Konerko in this class. The top name? Would you believe the 37-year-old Carlos Lee? Yes, the same Carlos Lee who was already salary dumped this year and then was rumored to be on the block again. He has all of six home runs, but at least he’s hitting .292. Now look into the rest of the void…. Sure, They’re Old, But At Least They’re Hurt. Lance Berkman He has just 75 at-bat this year because he’s been out the last two months after knee surgery, and that was following a previous stay on the DL for a calf injury. There will be serious concerns that his 36-year-old body can’t take it any more. Aubrey Huff Similarly, Huff is 35 years old and has only has 61 at-bats this year (and is hitting just .148) because of several DL stints which include an anxiety disorder and knee tendonitis. Carlos Pena Ok, he’s not hurt, but he’s hitting .193, so who could tell? He's also 35 years old and still can’t hit left-handers. Like the others, he’s worth a flyer, but who would rely on him for more than that? Bad, But Bad In A Youngish Way Casey Kotchman He’s just 30 years old, but he has never hit more than 12 home runs in his career, is struggling against left-handers and is hitting just .223. James Loney He’s the reason the Dodgers were talking to the Twins about Morneau at the deadline. He’s hitting .257 with two home runs. Two As in two more than I have hitting for the Dodgers this year. The only thing he has going for him is that he’s only 28 years old. They’re Old. They Also Don’t Start. Ty Wigginton All you need to know about the 35-year-old Wigginton is that the only way he’s available is if the Phils DON’T pick up a $4M option on him. That should clarify his value. Eric Hinske Yes, I’m talking about the 35-year-old bench player for the Braves for the lat 3 years. He has not seen 400 at-bats from a team since 2005. Winner: Justin Morneau Morneau, by comparison, is 31 years old, hitting .275 and has 15 home runs. Those numbers don’t justify a $14M salary next year. And if he was a free agent, he would not garner any offers for that kind of money annually. However, he is also the class of that list. If Morneau was a free agent, right now it looks like a two-year deal (for maybe $16M?) would not be out of the question. A three-year deal might be in play. If he and his agent insisted on a one-year deal (to increase his value for another run at free agency), a $9-10M deal might not be out of the question. But more important than the numbers is simply supply and demand. This offseason, the supply of first basemen who can be a middle-of-the-order presence for a competitive team is limited. In fact, it could be just Morneau. If Terry Ryan decides he is willing to trade Morneau – either to make room for Parmelee or to free up $14M in cash – there sure should be some desperate teams out there. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Greinke_600_321.jpg Aaron and John talk about Aaron's "healthy" new look, discuss next year's middle infield, tell listeners how they can get a free audiobook, and review the expected free agent starting pitchers and give Aaron's choices, John's choices, and the Twins probable choices. Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes. Click here to view the article

Twins Daily is very excited to announce that you will now find our minor league coverage on Pioneer Press' website TwinCities.com. Twins Daily wants to reach as many Twins fans as possible, so we've always shared our content. You may have discovered us through one of our existing agreements with StarTribune.com, KFAN.com and ESPN.com. The Star-Tribune (and particularly Howard Sinker) was one of TwinsCentric’s earliest supporters. KFAN.com posts a story from Twins Daily every week, broadcasts Gleeman and the Geek, and will be broadcasting MLB draft coverage at 9:00 this Thursday night with Seth, Jeremy and myself hosting. And ESPN.com designated Twins Daily as a member of its Sweet Spot Network before Twins Daily even existed. Download attachment: Logos.jpg But our agreement with the Pioneer Press will be our most extensive partnership yet. First, it’s going to bring more attention to our independent writers, which hasn’t been an easy option in the past. You’ll see all our minor league stories, including those contributed by other bloggers, on the left side of the TwinCities.com's main Twins page. Second, this is just the start -– there should be even more integration coming. Finally, everyone we’ve met from the Pioneer Press is an enthusiastic partner. They have been very supportive and complimentary of Twins Daily’s content and community, and aggressive in getting this implemented in a hurry. We would like to thank Twins Beat Reporter Mike Berardino, Vice-President of Marketing Lori Swanson and Sports Editor Tad Reeve for their optimism and working hard to make this happen. We’re very excited to see where working together takes us. We will to continue to grow new partnerships and expand existing partnerships with media that are interested in our independent and in-depth Minnesota Twins coverage. We don’t (and will never) believe in charging for our content –- baseball is our religion, and evangelists don’t charge admission. The Pioneer Press gets that, and we’re grateful that they’re willing to share our obsessive minor-league coverage with their audience. We hope we all enjoy the benefits it brings. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: ron-gardenhire.jpg The Twins set their coaching staff today, adding Bobby Cuellar, Tom Brunansky and Terry Steinbach to the coaching staff and clarifying the roles of Scott Ullger, Joe Vavra and Rick Anderson. Rick Anderson will keep his role as pitching coach, and holdovers Joe Vavra and Scott Ullger will take over third and first base, respectively. Newcomers Cuellar and Bruansky, both of whom coached in AAA-Rochester last year, will become the new bullpen coach and hitting coach. Finally, Steinbach, whose inclusion was not previously rumored, will be the bench coach and work with catchers. Manager Ron Gardenhire will continue to be the manager of the Twins, though his contract with the organization expires at the end of this year. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: catcher.jpg There has been more and more talk lately about catcher framing, which is the ability of catchers to impact the runs scored in a game by garnering strikes from pitches outside the strike zone. My initial skepticism around it has largely been due to the huge impact it can have. For instance, last year the difference between the best pitch framer (Jonathan LuCroy) and the worst (John Buck) is estimated at 50 runs. That's a five win difference. That's hard to believe.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] But today I wanted to look at different aspect: its predictability. That is, if a catcher is good at framing in one year, can we reasonably assume that he'll be good at it the next year? One way to look at this is to look at all catchers and how they did from year to year. If they did well one year, did they do well the next and vice versa? (I wondered about this because I was looking up Kurt Suzuki's framing numbers. They're usually been negative, but there have been some positive ones sprinkled in. I wondered how common that is.) There is a neat little statistical gizmo to do this called a correlation coefficient. A correlation coefficient examines two sets of numbers and gives back a number between -1 and 1. 1 means there is a perfect correlation, like between the temperature in Celsius and the temperature in Fahrenheit.-1 means there is a perfectly negative correlation, like the amount you spend in a month and your checking balance.And if it's 0, that means the numbers have no correlation, like Joe Mauer's batting average and the migratory penguin population.You can find the results of my study here. The bottom line: there is a lot of predictability. The runs per season had a correlation of .76, which is high. But the correlation on pitches per game is even higher .82. So catchers who have had a large positive effect end up continuing to do so. Unfortunately, most of the Twins who will play catcher this year didn't have a large positive effect last year. In fact, none of them did: Kurt Suzuki: -9.1 Josmil Pinto: -4.3 Chris Herrmann:-4.6 Eric Fryer: -0.8 I didn't choose that order to emphasize the negative. I chose to list them in my predicted order of innings caught. It's almost as if the worse they are at pitch framing, the more likely they are to play catcher. And this is where John starts rubbing his temples. And yet, that still might be better than last year. Because last year Joe Mauer was average (0.4) and Ryan Doumit was horrendous (-15.9). Still, it appears the new catching corps may not do the Twins revamped pitching staff any favors this year. ~~~ Since I'm sure you might want to do something like this yourself (and really, why wouldn't you - YEAY MATH), I thought I'd spell out the steps. 1. I pulled all the data I could from this great site and pasted it into a spreadsheet. It has all the catcher framing data from 2013 through 2007. 1b. I forgot to mention - I also limited the study to catchers with at least 3000 "samples" in a season which I assume are pitches. 2. I added one column to that data: "Prev Yr." You'll see why in a minute. 3. I imported that spreadsheet into an Access DB twice, once as a table called "Following" and another as "Previous". 4. I created a query joining those two tables, joining fields First Name, Last Name and "Prev Yr" from following to "Year" from the Previous field. I pulled the Names, Years, Per Game and RAA fields from each table. 5. Copy and paste the results from the query back into an Excel spreadsheet. 6. Use the "Correl" function to compare the values in the two "Per Game" and two RAA" fields. Ta Da! Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Wedding_Cake_Baseball.jpg Aaron and John talk about Joe Mauer moving from catcher to first base, being sponsored by another Twins podcast, the Twins' odds of actually signing Ricky Nolasco or another big-money free agent pitcher, recapping Dave Chappelle's marathon show at First Avenue, Jason Bartlett rejoining the Twins, Hebrew school reunions, Pedro Hernandez' 2014 ERA, Twitter beefs, John breaking his toe, and Aaron getting married. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Download attachment: DSC07370.JPG You know how in between innings, sometime the mascot comes out with a pneumatic gun and shoots t-shirts or hot dogs or whatever into the crowd? Have you ever seen him shoot out pizzas? Want to know why? Because there’s a lot better way to give away free pizzas. By now you’ve noticed that the Twins and Papa John’s have teamed up to offer 50% off pizzas using the ‘TWINSWIN’ promo code the day after a Twins win. What you don’t know is that Papa John’s is also giving away a few hundred pizzas this year to the Twins Daily community. And in a far less messy manner than having TC launch them out of a potato cannon. We’re going to start giving them away with this story. We’re going to give away 10 pizzas to Minnesotans who comment on this story, with the rules below. But as I am wont to do, I‘m going to make a broader heartfelt point. Hang in there. Pizza’s on its way. Twins Daily believes in the power of community. We believe we’re stronger as a group than we are individually, which is why Parker, Nick, Seth, Brock and I ditched our individual sites to make Twins Daily. We further recognize that this community is stronger because of all the individuals making contributions to it – writers, moderators, commenters, editors, contributors, supporters AND sponsors like Papa John’s. Furthermore, we believe that gifts like several hundred pizzas should support efforts to build that community, and to reward those who continually do so. Download attachment: papa_johns_logo.jpg Today, let’s work on getting people to join the community. To enter, just leave a comment below with a) your favorite Twin and your favorite kind of pizza. Unfortunately, the codes are only good for MN Papa John’s stores; apparently this potato cannon also has its limits. But if you win one and want to give it away to a friend in Minnesota (or a fellow Twins Daily member you want to honor), that’s fine. We’ll let it run through the weekend and then pick 10 participants randomly and send the winners a promo code for a free large, 2-topping pizza from Papa John’s. I’d like to thank Papa John’s for their sponsorship, and I’d like to thank our members who cooperatively work to make this a community which adds a great deal of satisfaction and enjoyment to our lives. Now get after it. The pizza party starts now. (Sans the pneumatic potato gun.) ~~~ Also, since the Twins beat the Blue Jays in the first game of Thursday's double-header, you can get 50% off a L or XL pizza from PapaJohns.com if you use the 'TWINSWIN' promo code. ~~~ Click here to view the article

Download attachment: buxton_byron.jpg With the second overall pick in the 2012, the Minnesota Twins selected high school outfielder Byron Buxton out of Appling County High School in Baxley, Georgia. In doing so, they chose one of the consensus most talented prospects, but one with his share of risks. Buxton’s athleticism has earned comparisons to Eric Davis, Matt Kemp and even Willie Mays. (Read that last sentence again.) He is blessed with speed that is among the top seen in a prospect and an arm that has hit 97 miles per hour when throwing from a mound. He projects to stay in center field. He’s dominated his competition, and shows all the physical traits of a natural hitter who should add power. Like most first round picks, he is not without risks. Even again sub-standard competition, he only hit three home runs in his senior year. But he shows significantly more power in BP and in a home run Derby in Wrigley he hit the last row of the left field bleachers with one blast., finishing second in that competition. He is obviously far away from contributing to a big league club and the Twins as an organization are more starved for pitching talent than hitting talent. Opinions vary slightly on the top talent at the draft, but nearly everybody had him listed as a top three position player and most listed him at #1. Also, there is almost nobody who doesn’t believe he has the highest upside of anyone in the draft. At the very least, the Twins chose one of the most interesting players available. For more on Buxton, check out this summary of him by the Houston Astros blog Crawfish Boxes. For a more entertaining read, including a few mind-blowing non-baseball examples of Buxton’s athletic ability, check out this Sports Illustrated story. Click here to view the article

Aaron and John visit Rye Deli on the same day the offseason ends and discuss what we want to see from the 2014 Twins, what to expect from the pitching staff and how to start their own bar with zero experience. Download attachment: tumblr_lwc0mtikOJ1qllv4co1_500.jpg You can listen by clicking below, or download us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Here's this week's breakdown: 2:00 - Aaron’s moving update 3:30 – Brunch 4:20 – Players in the best shape of their life 8:00 – John & Aaron’s public speaking schedule 14:00 – John meeting Aaron’s Mom 17:30 – Twins claiming LHP Brooks Raley 24:30 – Underrating and overrating Derek Jeter 37:20 – Rye Deli owner David Weinstein tutors John & Aaron on how to start a restaurant/bar with no experience 44:30 – What’s important for the Twins 2014 season? 59:40 – What can we expect from the starting rotation in 2014? 1:05:00 – Valentine’s Day 1:12:00 – Mailbag 1:29:00 – The first kiss 1:31:30 – Parker’s Second Chance Video Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Morales_Kendrys_TerryRyan_JB_720.jpg Aaron and John talk about the Kendrys Morales signing, Josmil Pinto's future being in flux, John's amazing dance moves at the KFAN party, Jason Kubel being let go, Nick Gordon and the Twins' draft picks, when to cut bait on Kevin Correia, trolling the Joe Mauer waters, wedding dock collapses, mailbag questions from listeners, and when not to get married for money. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Click here to view the article

Comments have been pretty negative about yesterday’s decision to grant Ron Gardenhire a two-year extension and retain the Minnesota Twins coaching staff. And that’s not just on the Twins Daily forums; check out stories on the Minnesota Twins Official site for some real vitriol. Twins fans are upset. Download attachment: Gardenhire_Ron_Pensive_600.jpg A lot of those comments are rhetoric, which has the advantages of being powerful, entertaining and fairly obvious after a third year of futility and an especially brutal September. But rhetoric is also often logically dubious. One side will claim Gardenhire should be fired for three straight 96+ loss seasons. The other claims he should be retained for six division titles. Both are results which managers probably influence, but so do a lot of factors, like talent. Beyond the rhetoric, there are plenty of concerns regarding Gardenhire’s performance history. One of the biggest is whether a rebuilding organization can entrust a youth movement to Gardenhire and his coaching staff. Certainly, that was a problem this year. Aaron Hicks was a disaster. Chris Parmelee wasn’t much better. Trevor Plouffe stagnated offensively and maybe even regressed defensively. Only Brian Dozier – a player Gardy publicly lobbied to be promoted – ended up overachieving. That raises the question of how many past players really grew under Gardy’s tutelage. Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, certainly, but they were always viewed as “can’t miss” stars. Jason Kubel probably didn’t have quite the career we expected, but there was the injury. Michael Cuddyer certainly developed, but it took him several years to shake the “underachieving” label. And the generation before developed mostly under Tom Kelly, breaking through largely in 2001 before Gardenhire took over. Similarly, there are questions about the development of the pitching staff under pitching coach (and former Gardenhire minor league roommate) Rick Anderson. Both Gardenhire and Anderson have been widely lauded for the development and handling of their bullpens, and this year’s group was no exception. But the organization is floundering largely because its rotation is among the worst in major league baseball and has been for three straight years. Again, questions arise about how successful this coaching staff has been in developing starters. Brad Radke carried a heavy load for several years, but he came up under Kelly. Johan Santana shined, but the turning point in his career is universally acknowledged to be when he perfected a changeup taught to him by AAA pitching coach (and current Twins bullpen coach) Bobby Cuellar. Kyle Lohse improved after leaving. More recently, Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey both were serviceable for a time, but never took the final step to be consistently excellent. Nick Blackburn followed the path of Carlos Silva, looking like a true success story but regressing back to a dismal finish. Finally, Francisco Liriano is starting tonight in the Wild Card game, resembling the pitcher we were waiting for him to be – the year after he left the Twins. It seems odd to ask whether a coaching staff that had a decade of success can develop young players, because a decade of success almost demands that they be able to do so. But looking at past examples, and especially looking at recent failures, the question is there. At least from the outside. It must not be for Terry Ryan. Because yesterday’s decision essentially entrusts Gardenhire to oversee the final developmental steps of a farm system widely viewed as one of the best in baseball. Beyond all the rhetoric about wins and losses, that is what yesterday was about. And perhaps that is why so many are upset. Click here to view the article