John Bonnes

Download attachment: car-stuck-in-snow.jpg Aaron and John go on a tour of Aaron's new place in Uptown and talk about Matt Garza reportedly turning down the Twins' sizable offer, Pedro Florimon's grasp on the shortstop job, when not to use someone's bathroom, Liam Hendriks' waiver wire tour, investing in a marriage, working from coffee shops, Josh Willingham's future, our survey, mailbag questions from listeners, hanging out at Bar Abilene with Meatsauce, speed dating, and the joys of parking. You can listen by clicking below, or download us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Here's the breakdown: 0:30 – Aaron’s new Uptown Bachelor Pad tour. 6:00 – Getting stuck in the snow 11:30 – Aaron Gleeman = Scott Seekins 13:30 – Coffee shop etiquette 16:05 – Bar Abilene 19:00 – Pedro Florimon 21:30 – Shortstop options 25:30 – Becoming Yankee fans 27:40 – Matt Garza 38:00 – Josh Willingham Wants To Stay 41:20 – Matt Guerrier delay 43:30 – Matt Capps is hurt 45:30 – CC Sabathia 48:00 – Playing basketball 51:15 - Liam Hendriks 53:30 – CenturyLink and bathroom etiquette 1:02:00 – Working from a coffee house 1:05:00 – Modern Marriage 1:17:00 – Uptown Notes 1:18:40 – Speed Dating Event 1:21:20 – Our Survey 1:23:00 – Mailbag Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Target_Field_ASG_US_720.jpg Aaron has the sniffles, so John, Parker Hageman & Kate Butler discuss the Kurt Suzki dilemna, the Twins buy/stand-pat decision, how to rework the home run derby and then play the much-rumored-but-rarely-heard "Beauty and the Beast" version of the Gleeman and the Geek theme song. For the second half, John goes to the Futures Game where he joins Jeremy Nygard and Seth Stohs in reviewing the progress and decline of the top prospects in the Twins systems at the traditional midway point while John tries not to dance to Panic At The Disco. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Target_Field.jpg John and Aaron talk about loving Opening Day at the ballpark and on the couch, the Minnesota Twins' lowest expectations ever, moving Joe Mauer up and Brian Dozier down in the batting order, what to do with Justin Morneau, appreciating the greatness of Johan Santana, bullpen and bench usage issues, finding what you need on Ticket King, exactly how bad the rotation can get, and why baseball is so damn comforting. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.Or just click below: Click here to view the article

Download attachment: top-prospects-04-kohl-stewart.jpg The 2013 Draft is going to be judged almost completely on the ascension of pitcher Kohl Stewart. That’s as intriguing as a $4.5 million bet on a roulette ball, hopping red to black. So much reward. So much risk. So little control. The 100 Word Primer Stewart was last year’s first round draft choice, fourth overall. After signing with the Twins, his first couple of months as a professional did not disappoint. He had the mid-90s fastball. He struck out 24 guys (both as a reliever and as a starter) and walked only four in 20 innings. He made one start in the higher of the two rookie leagues, a level below A-ball. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] He’s high reward, high risk. The high risk is that he’s an 18-year-old pitcher – and there are lots of risks, both developmental and physical, associated with pitchers that young. On the other hand, it's hard to pass up someone with his upside and athleticism, either. They don't come along very often. 200 Words Deeper The Twins have been criticized plenty for focusing on control pitchers without big arms, but with this draft pick (and the $4.5M price tag that went with it) they got the consensus highest upside arm in the draft. Stewart’s fastball supposedly works around 93 mph and can go as high as 97, and he’s still just 18 years old. That’s the good news. The better news is that it’s not his best pitch. Stewart’s slider moves at 80mph, has a hard, late break, and looks a lot like his fastball until it’s too late. And he has worked with a changeup and a curveball, too. But what really gets people excited is that he could become much, much better. He’s very athletic, turning down a scholarship to play quarterback at Texas A&M to sign with the Twins. He’s still considered a thrower instead of a pitcher – an athlete who has never really focused solely on baseball or the craft of pitching. To have someone already be so talented and also so raw – that’s the stuff daydreams are made of. Of course, it’s also the stuff of nightmares. Another word for “raw” is “crude”, which is how Keith Law described him in his prospect rankings this year. He still listed him as #76 overall, though. The 300 Word Question When does the roulette wheel stop? If you listen to Law, not very soon. Law posited that Stewart could be “a good five years away from the majors.” That would likely mean putting in a full year at Low-A Cedar Rapids this year. Then he would spend another year each at Fort Myers, New Britain and Rochester, as well as maybe a repeat year as he irons out some things a la Trevor May or Alex Meyer. Or – shudder – losing a year to an injury like Kyle Gibson or Alex Wimmers. That means waiting until 2018 or 2019. Ugh. I suspect that might induce a little grumbling for those interested in a more Kershawesome path to the majors. When the Dodgers drafted Clayton Kershaw seventh overall in 2006, they also started him in rookie leagues, just like the Twins did Stewart last year. And they started him the next year in Low-A, just like Stewart probably will this year. But that’s where things changed. After dominating Low A for 20 starts, Los Angeles promoted Kershaw straight to AA to end the season. The next years, he began the season in AA, made 11 starts, and was promoted to the majors as a 20-year-old. That’s super-aggressive for any team, let alone the Twins. If Stewart strikes out 134 batters in 97 innings like Kershaw did in the Midwest League, then maybe it’s worth some debate. But given the Twins history, Stewart’s initial condition and a healthy dose of caution, Law’s scenario is far more likely. Put the over/under at July of 2018 for now. And even that much optimism has me looking for wood to knock. The assumption implicit in that estimate is that he makes it at all, which is far from guaranteed. Don’t let it be said that the Twins are not willing to gamble when the opportunity presents itself. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: baby-girl-robe.jpg Aaron and John's take a break from KFAN at Mason's and walk through the Twins various DL moves, review the trade for Eduardo Nunez, convince David Brauer to listen to the Talk To Contact podcast, wonder at the world going bat s*** crazy about Joe Mauer, notice Brian Dozier's power surge, call random strangers "Babygirl," consider surgery on Aaron's torn ACL, and find out how to sell Joe Mauer a car. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Here's the breakdown: 2 Twins Game 4 Torn ACL 14 Rib Tips 18 DL Moves 26 Masons Food 27 Twins Trade 38 Bartlett’s Future 42 Babygirl 44 Trevor’s Defense 46 Aaron’s Stories 48 More Babygirl 56 Talk To Contact Podcast 64 Our Bar 68 Twitter’s Brand 74 Brian Dozier 76 Aaron Hicks 79 Return of Tanya 81 Buxton’s Wrist 83 Where’s Eddie? 84 Lou’s Return 86 Mauer’s Week 91 Mauer Buying A Car 98 Rioting Roommates 101 Hiring Randballstu 103 Why Taxis Stink ~~~ Thanks to the Twins win over the Royals on Sunday, it means that on Monday you can get 50% off a Large or Extra Large pizza when you use the “TWINSWIN” promotion code at PapaJohns.com. Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about how thin the ice is for Ron Gardenhire and maybe even Terry Ryan, trading Kendrys Morales to Seattle, other potential trades before the July 31 deadline, John's rap knowledge, Chuck Knoblauch, Kirby Puckett and the Twins' Hall of Fame, broken clocks being right, cutting Matt Guerrier, and the beauty of mini donuts.You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click on the "play" button below. Click here to view the article

According to Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com, the Minnesota Twins have reached an agreement with free agent starting pitcher Ricky Nolasco. However, the Twins have not confirmed the deal. If true, the deal is likely to be the largest contract the Twins have ever given to a free agent. UPDATE - According to Yahoo's Jeff Passan, it is a four year, $49 million contract, with an option for the fifth year at $13 million (with a $1 million buyout). Nolasco will turn 31 years old in the next two weeks and has spend most of his career with the Marlins. He has posted peripheral numbers (such as a 7.4K/9 strikeout rate and a 2.1 BB/9 walk rate) that suggest he should be better than his 4.37 career ERA. In 2013, while pitching with the Marlins and the Dodgers, he recorded a 3.70 ERA over 199.1 innings between the two teams. Download attachment: Nolasco_Ricky_Dodgers_Un_700.jpg His durability makes him one of the top names on the free agent starting pitching market, a step below Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana, but still in line for a average salary in excess of $10 million. The TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook estimated he would receive a 4-year deal of $52 million. That total would more than double the largest deal the Twins have ever made with a free agent, which was Josh Willingham’s 3-year, $21 million deal two years ago. Indeed, Nolasco represents a significant investment for any MLB team. His contract will likely be one of the top five given to any free agent starting pitcher this year. For those looking for someone that defies the highly publicized "pitch to contact" philosophy the Twins have embraced, Nolasco would be a step in the right direction. His strikeout rate, while being average for major league baseball, will be at the top of the Twins rotation. And among this group of free agent starters, he was third in overall strikeouts last year, only behind AJ Burnett and Ubaldo Jimenez. Finally, the likely length of the contract will mean Nolasco is a Twin until at least 2016 and possibly as long as 2018. He represents a financial commitment to anchor the next wave of Twins prospects to their next competitive team. It's not dissimilar to the 4-year, $36 million contract the Twins gave Brad Radke prior to the 2001 season. In fact, I'll be a little surprised if they don't reference that in relation to this signing when they're ready to talk about it. Click here to view the article

It ain't fancy. It is fun. If you're looking to get together for a lot of irreverent and fun Twins talk, I'd invite you to attend the 4th Annual LAST Hot Stove League Banquet and Charity Auction next Friday night. It's not the fourth annual - it's the fourth annual LAST, because this has been going on for decades now and they keep trying to stop doing it. The image contains all the info (click to enlarge). Download attachment: Hot Stove Banquet.jpg You'll see both The Voice of Reason and I there and we'll probably be taking the party someplace else immediately afterwards. I hope you can make it. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

I saw several tweets yesterday bemoaning the fact that the Twins didn't get Jeff Francis considering he signed a minor league deal with the Reds. I've certainly cast a skeptical eye towards the Twins aggressive stance early in this offseason, especially in the bullpen. But the Francis signing, IMHO, points out the risk/reward of waiting out the musical chairs game that is the free agent market: Download attachment: 1804757-bin.jpg Reward - when the music stops, there can be an awful lot of players anxious to take a seat in your remaining chair Risk - all of those players might kinda suck. (This is not Jeff Francis. But it might be soon.)==> When I look at Francis, I wonder why anyone would bemoan missing out on him. MLB GMs seem to agree - he just signed a minor league deal with a team in which there is no guarantee of a rotation spot. All by itself, that's revealing. But there is plenty of other evidence: 1. His fastball lost a couple of mph and tops out at about 84 according to rotowire.com 2. His k rate was down in the mid 4s last year. 3. He was hit like a pinata at a ADHD kids birthday party last year. I expect that last point is why so many analysts kind of like him - it's almost unfathomable that a guy can give up 220+ hits in 180 innings without some bad luck being involved. That may be true, but there is another explanation - a pitcher can just kinda suck. Those guys get weeded out in a hurry and thus don't impact Voros McCracken's correlation coefficient much, but there is no question they exist. I suspect yesterday's deal reflects MLB's organic weeding process more than it reflects the Twins cluelessness. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Kolek_Tyler_Pitching2_Rinaldi_Orig.jpg Updated 5/24 - While all the previous mocks had the Minnesota Twins selecting shortstop Nick Gordon with the 5th overall pick in the MLB Draft, neither of the two released on Friday did. And the second hinted that the Twins could have some tough (but fruitful) decisions ahead. First, John Manuel released his 3rd mock draft and took things a step farther than he had in Mock 2, when he had high school pitcher Tyler Kolek falling to the Twins but the Twins passing on him to stick with Gordon. This time, they didn't pass: Then MLB.com released another mock draft, but this one was by Jim Callis, who is known as one of the more plugged-in writers in Major League Baseball. He also had the Twins selecting Tyler Kolek, but there really was no decision to be made - Nick Gordon had been selected by the Cubs the pick before. He also hinted that if things break right, the Twins could have their choice between Kolek, Gordon and prep catcher Alex Jackson depending on how the Cubs and Marlins feel about high school players. Photo courtesy of Rinaldi Photos [/hr] Updated 5/20 - Who will the Twins choose as the fifth overall pick in the upcoming MLB draft? Oddly enough, in their latest mock drafts, Keith Law (ESPN.com), Jonathan Mayo (MLB.com), John Manuel (Baseball America) and Kiley McDaniel (Scout.com) all have the Twins picking the same guy. But how each gets to that point is very different. Download attachment: draft-2014.jpg Overview This year’s draft features three high-upside pitchers that are at or near the top of almost everyone’s list. (There were four, by the way, but one needed Tommy John surgery.) Carlos Rodon – College left-hander from North Carolina State that everyone expected at the beginning of the year to be the #1 pick. He’s been good enough to still be, but others have also risen. Brady Aiken – A very polished high school left-hander from San Diego that has risen sharply to be one of the top pitching prospects. Tyler Kolek – A 250-pound high school right-hander with 101 mph fastball who will need to work on his command. Then there are some position players that are perhaps a half step lower, including Nick Gordon – a high school shortstop, Bradley Zimmer – a college center fielder and Alex Jackson – a high school catcher/outfielder. Arms First Two of the mock drafts have those three high–upside pitchers going first, second and third and in the same order. Both MLB.com and Scout.com have Rodon going first to the Astros, Kolek going second to the Marlins and Aiken going third to the White Sox. They vary in their fourth pick. Jonathan Mayo has the Cubs choosing Jackson, who many feel is the best all-around hitter in the class (and some feel might not stay at catcher because teams will want to promote his bat quickly). But Kiley McDaniel has the Cubs going with what many consider the safest pitcher in the draft – Aaron Nola, a right-hander out of Louisiana State. Nola is also a pitcher in whom the Twins reportedly have some interest. But both agree that the Twins would then choose Nick Gordon, who should be able to stay at shortstop throughout his career and has added strength. There have been lots of reports about the Twins zeroing in on him. One question raised by McDaniel is what the Twins do if he's not available – if he’s sniped by one of the teams in front of the Twins, particularly, the Cubs. Another question not raised is whether the Twins might take Jackson over Gordon as in McDaniel’s draft. Close But Not Quite Keith Law jumbles the picks a bit and has Jackson sneaking into the second spot, nabbed by the Marlins. In his scenario, the Astros grab Aiken, the catcher Jackson is grabbed by the Marlins and the White Sox grab the hefty Kolek. That gives the Cubs a shot at one of the three big pitchers – Rodon, oddly enough – and they snap him up. So by the time the Twins draft, the same names are on the board as they were for the MLB.com draft. The Twins still take Gordon in his scenario. An Arm Falls John Manuel, however, sees a scenario in which one of the bigger arms falls to the Twins and they need to make a decision. In his scenario, Rodon goes first, as he has in three of these four mock drafts. The Marlins grab the catcher/outfielder Jackson. Interestingly, Manuel mentions that he thinks the White Sox, who pick next, covet Jackson if he gets past the Marlins. In this scenario, he’s gone, so they take the left-handed prep pitcher Aiken. When the Cubs choose at fourth, Manuel has them passing on Kolek because a 250-pound high schooler officially qualifies as an “outlier,” especially for an organization that prefer’s college pitchers. So they go with Kyle Freeland, a college left-hander who is moving up the boards fast and provides the right mix of upside and risk. (The other drafts have Freeland being taken soon after the Twins, in the seventh or eighth pick.) That leaves the Twins with a big decision. They certainly haven’t shied away from prep pitchers like Kolek. But they have also spent a lot of time scouting Gordon. Manuel lays out the decision: “The Twins have done their due diligence on the top prep arms, and their emphasis on finding velocity in recent drafts could lead them to Kolek. But they’ve also done a lot of work on Gordon, whose middle-of-the-diamond athleticism is too much to turn down.” The Twins once again end up with the athletic high school shortstop, but I don’t think this will be the last time we’ll talk about a tough decision regarding Kolek and Gordon. We’ll update this story as more mock drafts are released. You can also check out the 46-page(!) MLB Draft thread on Twins Daily with several other mock drafts being noted throughout. Finally, you’ll find daily draft coverage on Twins Daily through the 2014 MLB Draft on June 5-7. Previous coverage included: Twins Daily’s scouting insider Jeremy Nygaard gave his Mock Draft v 1.0. Click here to view the article

Last week, I had an interesting conversation with a potential sponsor. It went something like this: Download attachment: survey-robot.jpg Sponsor: We need to know something about your readers. Me: Sure, what do you want to know? Sponsor: Well, who comes to your site? Me: Well, there's Jim, who watches baseball in Iowa and Shane who talks about prospects and we have a guy from New Britain and.... Sponsor (rubbing temples): Let me explain to you the concept of demographics.... So could you all PLEASE take this survey? It would help up out a lot. And I promise, it won't take more than 30 seconds. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

~ Sponsored by Switch My Trip ~ Download attachment: Plouffe_Trevor_face_US_720.jpg From condemnation to redemption. Trevor Plouffe traveled that path over the span of three innings in Wednesday’s win over the Rays. It also appears he may be well along that path in his Twins career. It isn’t often that a player goes from goat to hero in the same game, but Plouffe did Wednesday, and thus wins our Big Switch award this week. Plouffe had the most damaging at-bat and the most valuable at-bat for the Twins – and believe it or not, we can measure these things. Sabrmetrics has come up with a nifty statistic called Win Probability Added (WPA) that never would have been practical in a world before computers. It’s easiest to understand if you start at the back of the acronym and work forward: it measures how much a player ADDS to the PROBABILITY of a WIN. Here’s how it works: ~ The Twins are looking to switchthings around this year. Every week, Metro Transit recognizes a Twins player who successfully switched the outcome of a game for the better. ~ Something like 30 years of baseball games were broken down at-bat by at-bat. Each situation was noted: the difference in score, the inning, the outs, and which bases are occupied. The total number of games that ever had that situation was counted. And then the total number of times the team that was in that situation won was counted. The result is a very precise percentage that indicates historically how likely a team is to win a game given a situation. Let’s use Plouffe’s at-bat in the ninth inning to show you how it works. You can follow along on the Fan Graphs site, which elegantly tracks games this way, play by play and in a summary. When Plouffe strode to the plate in the top of the ninth inning, the Twins had lost a 4-4 lead but were threatening to push the deciding run across the plate. Sam Fuld had opened the inning with a double and had advanced to third base on Brian Dozier’s ground ball. Joe Mauer had been walked to set up the double play. Download attachment: Big Switch Plouffe Fan Graphs.JPG Teams in that situation – tie game, top half of the ninth inning, runners on the corners, one out – had won 69.2% of their games. But when Plouffe obliged with a sharply hit ball to the shortstop that turned into an inning-ending double-play, the scales turned completely. Historically, the chances of winning a game going into the bottom of the ninth tied are only 37.4% Plouffe’s double-play had cost the Twins 32% of Wednesday’s game. But it didn’t cost them the game. Because Casey Fien escaped a bases loaded jam in the bottom of the ninth. He then held the Rays without a hit in the tenth and eleventh innings. Fien, by the way, is the unheralded hero of that game. Nobody contributed more to that win. His heroics also gave Plouffe another chance in the 12th inning. This time Plouffe came through. Mauer led off the 12th with a soft infield single to start the rally. Colabello got the accolades two batter later, finishing off a four RBI night that tied a record for the most RBI in April by a Twins player. But it was Plouffe’s double in between the hits that most helped the Twins win. That knock moved the needle from the Twins having 58% chance to win to an 82% chance. While Colabello provided four RBI and a viral video, it was Plouffe’s double that turned the 12th inning from interesting to inevitable. Plouffe has become far more interesting, too. We’ve seen a hot streak from him before; he hit 13 home runs in the span of a month in 2012. But we’ve never seen this combination of power, average and plate discipline from him before. Most encouraging is that he’s hitting right-handed pitching. Over his career, he’s flashed power against right-handers, but holds just a .232 batting average, including 234 strikeouts compared to just 77 walks. This year? He’s hitting .327 with as many walks as strikeouts (12). Plouffe entered the year with a question hovering over his career: how soon before uber-prospect Miguel Sano takes third base from him? If Plouffe continues to hit like this, the same question exists, but it’s no longer a threat; the way Plouffe is hitting now, his bat would play at just about any spot on the field. From condemnation to redemption – in a game, and maybe in a career. That is indeed A Big Switch. ~~~ Why fight traffic and parking? Say ‘Switch My Trip’for the next Twins game. Metro Transit can provide you and your whole family a train ride to the game. Planning your trip is as easy as clicking on this link. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: MNBlogCon_small.jpg Aaron and John podcast from the MN Blogger Conference and review their preseason over/under picks, talk about Twins payroll, discuss Justin Morneau's chances of returning, miss October baseball games and finally have special guest David Brauer join to talk about where blogging and journalism are going, for good or bad. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Download attachment: handbook-cover.jpg We're VERY happy to announce that we have released the TwinsCentric 2013 Offseason Handbook! If you pre-ordered, you should have already received your email with download instructions. If you haven't - we're sorry, but the pre-sale discount price of $6.95 has expired. It is now full price, but that still means just $9.95 to help the offseason be nearly as much fun (and in the Twins case, probably more fun) than the season. http://www.e-junkie.com/ej/ej_add_to_cart.gif [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]This marks the fourth iteration of our increasingly popular annual offseason guide, and we're focused on making it our best yet. As usual, we'll be putting you in the shoes of the Twins' general manager with this jam-packed ebook, providing all the resources necessary to make the offseason fly by. Among the sections housed within, you'll find: [*=left]a foreword by Aaron Gleeman [*=left]a detailed organizational depth chart, [*=left]an in-depth interview with Terry Ryan, [*=left]listings of free agents at every position (including the crowded starting pitching market), [*=left]various trade targets, [*=left]reviews of the other teams in the division, [*=left]essays on hot offseason topics, and [*=left]tons more. It's all delivered with the signature analysis and snark you've come to expect from the TwinsCentric goofs, and with a much-improved visual presentation. (Just check out the accompanying example to see what we mean.) We're confident that it will be the best baseball investment you’ll make this year. Still a little leery about buying an e-book? We get it. How about a free sample? For those who are interested, download a sample of the 2013 Offseason Handbook now. We’re confident you’ll see what we’re talking about. http://www.e-junkie.com/ej/ej_add_to_cart.gif or DOWNLOAD A SAMPLE Download attachment: handbook-interior.jpg The Handbook is going to be an fun, engrossing, comprehensive read and an indispensable tool for wannabe GMs and casual fans alike as we enter a hugely important offseason. Don't be left behind – click below to order your copy (or copies!) with PayPal or a credit card through our simple and secure checkout process. http://www.e-junkie.com/ej/ej_add_to_cart.gif http://www.e-junkie.com/ej/ej_view_cart.gif Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Dozier.jpg Aaron and John talk about Brian Dozier's demotion to Triple-A, Nick Blackburn's ongoing awfulness, whether the Twins are collapsing down the stretch again, the latest "day-to-day" injury proving anything but, where and when Chris Parmelee will play, KFAN producer Ryan Donaldson's puking story, and preparing for the return to full-time podcasting. Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe andthe podcast on iTunes.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

It’s still early in spring training – early enough so that our eyes could be fooling us from this bright sun thing – but maybe there’s some hope for the Twins bullpen after all. Download attachment: 8-29-09+160.jpg The bullpen has been a sore spots for Twins fans for…wow…how long has it been? This offseason, obviously. Last season, for sure. 2010 was a bit of respite, though there was enough panic to trade away Ramos Wilson for Matt Capps. In 2009 it struggled beyond Joe Nathan and Matt Guerrier. 2008 was REALLY bad up until Jose Mijares was given a role for the last two weeks of September. In 2007…ok…I’ll let you decide where you want to draw the line, but it’s fair to say it’s been a sore spot several times recently. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] It looked to be so again this year, especially when free agent Joel Zumaya was injured which caused some bloggers to lose their cool. (Justifiably, I would argue.) It looked like the bullpen was going to be manned by - let’s make sure I quote this right – “either a member of last year's shaky corps or a waiver or minor-league pickup.” That’s still true. But some of those pickups are producing some surprising results, especially when it comes to some strikeouts. With three spots likely open in the bullpen, three guys – two right-handers and one left-hander – have shined in early contests. Jared Burton was scavenged from the Cincinnati Reds, courtesy of a shoulder injury and a hyperthyroid condition that cost him most of the last two years. That doesn’t change the fact that the 30-year-old right-hander has earned a 3.41 ERA in the majors over 169 innings. “Hits” are not a trustworthy stat in spring training, but the fact that Burton hasn’t given up any in his four relief outings, while striking out four and walking just one at least puts him on the right path. Left-hander Matt Maloney, statistically, looks like the most exciting option. Cincinnati was also kind enough to contribute Maloney to the roster this offseason, though at least it cost the Twins a 40-man roster spot this time. In the majors, Maloney has mostly been used as a starter, but in his relief appearances, he’s struck out 21 batters in 24 innings, with just six walks (albeit 28 hits). This spring he’s dominated, striking out eight in 5.1 innings, while walking just one and giving up just three hits. Those are numbers that can’t be ignored, no matter which inning one is pitching. Speaking of “which inning one is pitching,” Jeff Manship has steadily been working his way from the late innings to the early innings in spring training games – an indication that manager Ron Gardenhire wants him to face better competition. He’s earned it. In his four appearances, he’s struck out six, walked none and given up just two hits. Both times I’ve seen him, his strike outs came on a what Seth Stohs describes as a “spiked slider.’ I have no idea what that mean, but I love the name, and I love the way it ends up at a batters ankles as he swings. Manship has been with the Twins for years, making a few appearances with the big league club, looking mostly mediocre, both as a starter and a reliever. His biggest weakness has been that he just plain gave up a lot of hits. That wasn’t a weakness in the minors, and a strikeout rate in AAA nearing 7 per nine innings – mostly as a starter – indicates he could take a significant step up given the chance to relieve. For instance, Joe Nathan averaged 7.2 K/9 in AAA, also as a starter. Of course, Nathan had that nasty slider – but Manship also looks like he’s got his “spiked slider” and I’ve heard reports of a top shelf curveball, too. (Though, maybe they’re talking about the same thing. It’s hard to tell sometimes.) The point remains: if Manship can stay healthy – and the same goes for Maloney and Burton, knock, knock – the Twins bullpen, on the shoulders (literally) of some washouts and pickups, could look like a strength a month from now. Click here to view the article

Today’s mystery category? Let’s see if you can guess from the clues… Download attachment: baseball-money.jpg "What are the Twins television revenues?" "Why is everybody bitching about a $100 million payroll?" "Why couldn't the Twins sign Prince Fielder?" If you didn’t get it, don’t be too hard on yourself - it’s a little convoluted. The category is “What questions avoid THE question?” In Twins Territory, THE question has been: why did payroll go down $15 million following the second year of a publicly funded stadium? [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]But because MLB teams keep their financial information so private, journalists are limited in the information they can dig up. Since that information doesn’t give the whole story - and because they want to share that information that they’ve uncovered - they find other questions so they can still publish the story. Or, they list what they found, and refer to it generally, but offer few specifics. My pithy intro might suggest I’m being critical of that strategy. I’m not - for two good reasons. First, because these are usually fine questions to answer, and every answer adds a piece to the puzzle. Second, because I‘m about to do much the same thing. On Friday night, in a Q&A session at the end of the Hot Stove Banquet, Twins President Dave St. Peter answered THE question candidly, if generally. He listed 3 factors: 1) The Twins stretched payroll slightly last year, and so the reduction isn't really $15M over last year's budget. The last signing of last year's offseason was Carl Pavano, who signed for $8M. At the time, the Twins claimed they stretched a little to make that signing, and before that signing they were still looking into other players, albeit less expensive ones. So let's assume that accounts for $2-3M of the difference. 2) The Twins will need to pay more for draft picks then they did last year. Last year the Twins paid about $3M for their top draft picks. This year the Twins will have five picks in the top 75. Thanks to the new collective bargaining agreement, we know almost exactly how much those picks should cost: about $11M. That's $8M plus $2-3M from stretching last year and now the Twins are down ~$10-11M. We have $4-5M left to find. 3) Finally, St. Peter anticipates a drop in revenue. He clarified this a few minutes later when he said that revenues from the ballpark tend to normalize on a per capita basis. In other words, as the novelty of a new ballpark wears off, people spend less on each trip to the ballpark. (By the way, the Twins also revealed during the media luncheon on Friday that they only anticipate about a 4% decrease in season tickets this year.) That makes sense. Since payroll is supposed to be about 50% of the total revenue, a $4-5M decrease in payroll would reflect an $8-10M decrease in revenue. That seems high to me, but not totally unreasonable, especially when St. Peter added that they aren't budgeting for 3,000,000 in attendance this year. (That last note, by the way, could further explain Phil Mackey’s story about Jim Pohlad taking a “wait-and-see” approach. When I read that story, I was outraged: ownership was expecting fans to make a financial commitment but wasn’t willing to make one itself. Reading between the lines, I wonder if the story isn’t a little different. After last year’s disaster, and with so much uncertainty, ownership directed management to use more conservative models for anticipated revenue. The effect is the same, and it’s essentially what Mackey’s sources said, but somehow this infuriates me less.) This shouldn't be meant to imply that I approve, or even completely understand. For instance, I still believe it is pennywise and pound foolish to not invest and additional $2M in backup plans at two especially questionable roster spots. And it isn't clear to me why some of that decrease isn't offset by increases in shared national revenues, which consistently increase for MLB teams. I still haven’t answered the question. But it gets us closer, and leads to some good news/bad news. The bad news is that the Pohlads are not the Ilitchs - they run a business as a business, and not as a charitable organization, no matter how much fun it would be to win a World Series. But it also implies that two of those three cuts should be one-time events. Hopefully so will this payroll reduction. Which may have been the real $15,000,000 question I wanted answered. Click here to view the article

"My gawd - THEY are afraid of US? Really?" That's the thought that went through my head last night when a flame war broke out on Twitter between two local groups that had established a uneasy truce in recent years: corporate media and independent writers, commonly labeled bloggers. The critical topic? Baseball. Download attachment: Printing Press.jpg Or rather, that’s the subject matter about which the involved parties write. The topic was the power of independent writers and the checks and balances from which they are seemingly immune. Concern 1: Independent writers are just fans who benefit from having a very large platform. It's true. Some independent writers have very big platforms from which they can distribute their messages. In fact, yesterday, Twins Daily, a site that hosts independent baseball writers, announced they have drawn 34,000 unique visitors to view half a million pages since they launched five weeks ago. So yeah, they have a hell of a big soap box. But that platform was not handed to them by a media entity established decades before by writers who built up an audience. Rather, the independent writer IS the person who built up the audience. They find themselves free to do with it what they want. Concern 2: Independent writers don't have the same accountability of corporate journalists. It's true. Journalists can be fired for their mistakes, but not independent writers. Know why? Because independent writers never asked to be hired. They are not dependent on pleasing anyone other than their audience. Their livelihood likely isn't even dependent on that. Their audience decides how accountable they need to be, not their corporate masters. Like any writer, if they screw up, they can publicly mocked and condemned. I wonder if they'll be able to handle that? Concern 3: Independent writers don't appreciate the value of Access and the accuracy it brings. It's true. Access can increase accuracy, provided those being interviewed feel like telling the truth. But one cannot have that Access without accepting compromises, whether it be trying to steer clear of a public relations doberman or hesitating to criticize a player whom one personally admires. Indeed, navigating these challenges is the art of journalism. Since the independent writers don't have that Access, they've taught themselves how to live without it and still find compelling content and an audience. In fact, most who have achieved a certain level don't want that Access. They'll trade any accuracy it includes for objectivity, thanks very much. (Incidentally, the people who want the independent writers to appreciate that Access are precisely the same groups that work so hard to deny it: the baseball teams and the journalists.) The bad news is that the concerns are real. The media is damn astute to be nervous about the power the independent writers wield right now. They're popular, they don't give a crap about Access and they're beholden to no one. The worse news is that they helped create them. But I do have some good news for concerned corporate journalists who want to enjoy all those same benefits. It's one easy step away. Just quit your jobs. After you find other income, devise compelling stories which are not fed to you by player or coach quotes, and write independently for several years with no compensation, you might just establish an audience. Then you too can be criticized by the corporate journalists. And feared. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: MLBDraft.jpg Aaron and John talk about Byron Buxton versus Mark Appel versus Carlos Correa, why Monday is the most important day of the Twins' season, first-hand scouting reports on Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, and the Beloit team from special guest Seth Stohs, how Carl Pavano is the new Shannon Stewart, what to make of Francisco Liriano's impressive start, their PickPointz MVP picks, Ben Revere's bunting, and how Aaron looks in a black evening gown. Here are: the podcaststhe rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Download attachment: baseball_money.jpg How low can it go? Not a whole lot lower. According to USAToday, the Minnesota Twins dropped their payroll $18.5M from last year ($112M) to this year ($94M). And while the mantra coming out of Target Field is that “payroll isn’t that important” ask youself: where this team would be with another $18.5M worth of starting pitching? That’s the bad news, but it’s old bad news. The worse (and new) news is that the team is again in last place and attendance is down again. Would that mean further payroll cuts? [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] If it does, there are only so deep they can cut, because barring some trades, a quick-and-dirty analysis shows the Twins are committed to at least a $76M payroll. The back-of-the-napkin details are on the right. Download attachment: 2013 Payroll v2.jpg If the Twins don’t cut payroll at all, that gives them just $18M to put towards acquiring two or three starting pitchers. And if they do? Then you can expect a lot more of what we’ve seen this year: cycling through AAA starting pitchers in the hopes they can find someone who sticks. Because AAA starting pitchers will be all they can afford. I suspect it also means that any fantasies of hanging onto Francisco Liriano. At the very least, it makes it difficult to imagine the Twins offering him a $12.5M one-year contract to make sure the Twins get draft picks as he walks as a free agent. That much liquid payroll can’t be sucked up by just one player where there are so many gaps in the rotation. That is, if there is any available. If the Twins cut payroll again, Twins fans could face the very grim reality of watching a starting rotation that is actually worse that this years squad, which ranks 29th in ERA in the majors. How low can it go? Not a whole lot lower. But low enough. Click here to view the article

Sponsored by Snyder Gislason Frasier LLC Baseball, bourbon, great legal minds and the end of TV blackout rules as we know them. If that sounds like a pretty good night, well, you missed it. I however, did not. So, let's recap.... The partners of Snyder Gislason Frasier (a.k.a. The Law Geeks) - Chad Snyder, Adam Gislason and Mike Frasier - invited me out to share the finer things in life and parse through the broader implications of two class-action lawsuits. The suits were brought by fans against Major League Baseball,[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] the NHL, Comcast and DirectTV -- Garber et al v. Office of the Commissioner of Major League Baseball and Laumann et al v. National Hockey League -- which were consolidated in 2012. The plaintiffs (fans) claim that sports franchises, that should be in competition, conspire to establish territorial TV rights with television distributors. As a result, they can charge enormous fees for people who want to watch out-of-market games. There is no debate about whether this really happens - even MLB admits it - although the distributors claim to be bystanders in this process. In fact, this has been a topic on Twins Daily forums. For instance, Cedar Rapids is about a four-hour drive from Target Field AND the home of the Twins Low-A minor league club, the Cedar Rapids Kernels. But local residents there can't get Fox Sports North on cable so they are not able to watch Twins games that way. They are ALSO officially within the blackout area of MLB.TV, so they can't get those games as an out-of-market option either. The Kernels can't tune into a Twins game, either as in in-market or out-of-market option, in their clubhouse. (But it actually gets more ridiculous for Minnesota's southern neighbors. MLB.TV considers the entire state of Iowa to be "in-market" for SIX major league teams: the Twins, Brewers, Cubs, White Sox, Royals and Cardinals. Iowa residents are at the mercy of the few cable stations that want to extend that far.) But just because it's true, doesn't mean it's legal or illegal. Although the fans’ case against MLB is a unique one, in the past, MLB has killed suits brought against it before they got off the ground using a unique defense – the “baseball antitrust exemption” i.e., unlike most other businesses, federal and state antitrust laws don't apply to them. You may have heard that baseball is a legal monopoly, but that isn't entirely true. The truth is considerably more gray. In the 1920s, the Supreme Court ruled that MLB games were not subject to federal antitrust laws. This ruling was later affirmed in the 1950’s by the Supreme Court, which, to use a football term, punted the question to Congress. Since then, including the Flood case, courts have not shown a willingness to expand on that ruling. And both the NHL and NFL have been shot down when trying to get the Supreme Court to apply the same broad antitrust exemptions applied to them. It looks like MLB didn't want to risk something similar befalling its exemption, because it didn't hide behind that standard defense when the suit was filed in 2012. That may have been because its lawyers aren't sure the courts, including the Supreme Court if it gets that far, will follow the prior Supreme Court decisions this time around the bases. "There are indications that the Supreme Court, as it's currently comprised, might not feel restricted by previous rulings," says Chad. Choosing not to claim antitrust exemption backfired, as it meant the suit was not dismissed and instead has been involved in two years of discovery. Recently, though, MLB claimed that the antitrust exemption "includes its territorial league structure and live video rules." That opens the door for a much higher stakes game, one that could even include a trip back to the Supreme Court. Not that TV rights aren't high stakes all by themselves; between how local television contracts have recently changed the landscape of team revenues AND the rise in profits and valuation of MLB Advanced Media, this suit could radically change a multi-billion dollar revenue stream. However, its effect could go even beyond that if MLB's nebulous antitrust exemption is further defined. One of the last times any official ruling was made on baseball's antitrust exemption, it led to the federal Curt Flood Act of 1998, which helped solidify free agency. The Curt Flood Act changed baseball's business forever, limited MLB's antitrust reach, but also recognized that there was at least some antitrust considerations upon which to reflect. If both sides get to the point where a ruling on the antitrust designation of MLB is challenged, far more than just TV revenues is jeopardized. This is unlikely to happen. "Given what is at stake for both sides, the current class actions will likely end in a settlement," suggested Adam, a common conclusion for these types of suits. "But a settlement will likely include changing how the industry currently works," added Mike. Just what those changes could look like is anyone's guess. Baseball fans in several regions have been victimized by the momentum of the current system. It's likely time for an overhaul. Perhaps this suit will encourage baseball to face the challenge head on. ------ Snyder Gislason Frasier LLC is a Minneapolis-based law firm committed to providing personalized service to their clients while cheering for the Minnesota Twins. Their talented lawyers can help you find innovative solutions to legal issues in many areas, including general business law, litigation, contracts, family law, employment law, and entertainment law. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Mauer_Joe_FirstBase_US_720.jpg Aaron and John review a plethora of weird roster moves, wonder about the impact of Joe Mauer's bat, discuss pineapple sauce with Lindsay Guentzel, endorse Eduardo Escobar, compare John's facial hair to Jack Morris' and interview Aaron's favorite bartender at Stella's. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]~~~ Sunday's win was big because it gave the Twins a series victory heading into a long and difficult road trip. It was also big because it gives YOU 50% off your order from PapaJohns.com on Monday with the promo code "TWINSWIN." ~~~ Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Hughes.jpg Similar to the consumption habits of most Americans during Thanksgiving, the Minnesota Twins are devouring free agent starting pitching at a frenzied pace. On Wednesday, it was Ricky Nolasco. On Saturday, the Star Tribune’s LaVelle Neal reported that they were in agreement with Phil Hughes on a three-year deal. The deal, which is contingent on a physical that Hughes must pass, is a three-year, $24 million contract. Hughes' numbers, both last year and over his career, are underwhelming. He was 4-14 last year with a 5.19 ERA and is 56-50 with a 4.54 ERA for his career. His strikeout rate is mediocre (7.6 K/9 for his career) and he has been hurt by home runs, especially lately (59 home runs in 337 IP over the last two years). But there are several caveats to those numbers that made Hughes attractive to other teams, including the Royals, Marlins and Mets. The Twins have been targeting him since at least July. You may also remember that Hughes was mentioned as part of the package the Twins requested from the Yankees during the Johan Santana trade talks. That's a pretty good place to start with why Hughes remains in favor despite recent struggles. In 2008, the Yankees weren’t willing to trade Hughes for Santana. Read that last sentence again. Actually, let me rewrite it, with the hidden words shown. In 2008 (eight years into their “drought” of not winning a championship), the Yankees (for whom dollars are nothing more than monopoly money) were not willing to trade (21-year-old pitching prospect) Hughes (with all of 72 innings of major league experience) for Santana (who had finished in the top five of Cy Young voting for four consecutive years). That speaks to exactly how highly Hughes was thought of. And it’s not like the Yankees had too much pitching. Their starting rotation was mediocre (16th in ERA in MLB) and their winningest pitcher was Chien-Ming Wang. Santana was exactly the guy they needed, and all they needed to do was swap some prospect for him and pay him, just like the Mets did. But they wouldn’t part with Hughes. Hughes was one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, and was projected to become the new ace of the Yankees staff as early as 2008, starting to fill in for the aging arms of Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens, all of whom were over 35. But a fractured rib derailed 2008 and raised questions about his durability, which we’ll get to later. Part way through 2009 he was moved to the Yankees' bullpen, where he was outstanding, helping the Yankees win their only World Series title of the millennium. He returned to the rotation in 2010, where it became apparent he was a poor fit for Yankee Stadium. Hughes is an extreme fly ball pitcher, and right-handed, which makes Yankee Stadium’s short right field porch his bane. His career ERA pitching in the two Yankees Stadiums is 4.96, versus 4.10 on the road. The difference? He’s given up more than twice as many home runs at home. The hope is that escaping from New York, whether it be the ballpark, the media or the expectations, will allow Hughes to become the pitcher everyone expected five years ago. That hope might be even more realized if his home park is Target Field. Because he was so young when promoted by the Yankees, he will be only 27 years old through the first half of the 2014 season. He’s entering his prime. From a raw stuff standpoint, he’s solid (7.5 K/9 and 92.4 mph fastball last year), has good control (2.6 BB/9) and isn’t afraid to throws strikes (66.7% of first-pitch strikes over the last four years). The biggest concern is his durability. He’s battled some nagging back and shoulder issues, but has made 61 starts over the last two years, throwing 337 innings. Hughes represents a calculated risk/reward move for the Twins. If the move away from NYC works, he has the potential to be a solid #2 starter for the next few years at a relative bargain price. And then he can hit the free agent market as a 30-year-old for a big pay day. If not, the Twins are overpaying a back-of-the-rotation pitcher, an asset of which they already have a glut. There are big numbers on both sides of the ratio, but the Twins can afford the risk and desperately need the reward. It also means the Twins are likely done adding pitching. At least three spots in the rotation are now spoken for by free agents signed the last two years: Ricky Nolasco, Kevin Correia and Hughes. It seems likely Samuel Deduno, who posted a 3.83 ERA last year before being sidelined with a shoulder problem, will also have a spot if he shows he’s healthy. That leaves a last spot for several younger pitchers with lesser track records, like Scott Diamond, Vance Worley, Kyle Gibson and Andrew Albers. Click here to view the article

Twins Daily is not an online newspaper. I know – it sure looks like one. That’s how we fool you. That’s how we draw you closer to the trap. But our stories are just the surface of the water, and if have the gumption to reach out, you’ll find out what’s just under the surface.Start by commenting on a story. I promise – it won’t hurt. Twins Daily has the most respectful, civil and intelligent discussions you’ll find in sports, or maybe on any topic. (We maintain that civility by making you register to leave a comment.) Then check out our forums. Here you’ll be able to learn a lot more about the Twins than just what makes it to the front page. Members are posting links to Twins news stories, blogs, minor league results, farm reports, etc. You can also add to these or ask a question, even start your own thread about whatever topic or story you like. There is also our minor leagues – the Blogs page. You may like some of these stories or you may not, but there is always new content being posted there by some talented writers. And if you would like to try your own hand at writing, you can create your own blog from that page, too. It will appear on the Blogs page, and if it’s a good story, you may find it promoted to the front page alongside the rest of our writers where thousands of Twins fans can read it and comment… and the cycle begins again. See what I mean? Twins Daily isn’t an online newspaper - it’s a community. And you are welcome. Click here to view the article