John Bonnes

Pelfrey to the rotation, Thompson chosen over Thielbar. I'm officially worried about how Molitor (or his staff) chooses his pitchers. Maybe that "Gardy always does a good bullpen" was a little too true. And FWIW, I don't see a lot about legitimate products in which Stanozolol can be found. It was what also what nailed Olympic sprinter Ben Johnson back in 1988. I wonder just how long Santana has been using it.

Yup - Pelfrey to the rotation and Thompson to the bullpen over Caleb Thielbar (or Mark Hamburger). My #1 concern about Molitor now is going to be bullpen management. I think the concern for May is that he isn't ready, particularly his ability to throw our of the stretch. What a kick in the #%*$. FWIW, I don't see stanozolol as having much in the way of legitimate uses. It was also the drug Ben Johnson was nailed on.

Getting antsy for the baseball season to begin? Then join us Thursday night for a kick-off party at Target Field to raise money for Tix for Tots. John Bonnes, Star-Tribune Twins beat reporter Phil Miller, Twins Director of Corporate Communications and Broadcasting Kevin Smith and Rene Saarigianopoulos of Kare 11 will be talking baseball and answering questions. Enjoy a rich selection of appetizers in the beautiful Metropolitan Club at Target Field, and select a bottle of wine to take home from the "wall of wine." Bid on silent auction items including a suite for a Twins game, the opportunity to throw out the first pitch, batting practice passes, autographed Twins memorabilia and much more. Tix for Tots has been supplying free tickets to disadvantaged youth for events all over the Twin Cities since 2002. Partnering with the Twins, they've provided over 183,050 opportunities for kids to experience the excitement of Twins baseball (often for the first time). I hope you can join us, and help support the mission of Tix for Tots! View full article

Aaron and John talk and/or argue about nearly everything the Twins did in the past week, including demoting Alex Meyer, Trevor May, Aaron Hicks, and Eddie Rosario to Triple-A, choosing Tommy Milone for the rotation, moving an angry Mike Pelfrey to the bullpen, signing Brian Dozier to a $20 million contract, trusting spring training numbers, and what to drink at Mason's Barre. And then they give away a pair of 20-game Twins season tickets courtesy of the Minnesota Corn Growers Association. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click the Play button below. http://traffic.libsyn.com/gleemangeek/Ep_187_Roster_Moves_and_Dozier_Extension.mp3 View full article

I'll say this: I think there are quite a few players to watch. I'll be very interested in watcing Danny Santana this year and Kennys Vargas, even moreson than Arcia. I'll also be interested in watching Trevor May, whenever he joins the team.

Parker gets to take over Casa Del TwinsDaily starting today, but the Twins were kind enough to provide all kinds of pregame excitement. Twins owner Jim Pohlad addressed the media, followed by Twins GM Terry Ryan, followed by the new Commissioner of Major League Baseball, Rob Manfred. Here are some notes from the interviews: Total Flexibility The Twins payroll is in excess of $100M as the they enter the 2015 season, but if the team finds itself competitive, Pohlad would love to see them add players, even if it costs money. “That would be a great situation,” said Pohlad before today’s game, “and there would be total flexibility.” Josmil Pinto Seeking Clearance Twins GM Terry Ryan said that things continue to progress well for Josmil Pinto and he’ll seek clearance to return to game action. He will likely get acclimated in minor league games before joining the club. It doesn’t sound like his concussion will necessarily preclude him from making the opening day roster. Brian Duensing Returns Brian Duensing pitched in relief for the Twins today after leaving a game earlier this week when a comebacker hit him in the thigh. He threw 1.1 innings, got a strikeout and gave up no hits. Same Page Whatever decisions Ryan and Molitor are making regarding the roster, Ryan claims they are “on the same page”. They met this morning and Ryan said of Molitor “He has opinions.” And then added, “So do I.” Milone at Target Field Ryan described Milone’s outing yesterday as “OK” but also thought that the smaller ballpark and wind hurt him a bit. He expects better results in Target Field. “He’s more oriented towards Target Field than some. It’s a nice big ballpark and he’ll have some of those fly balls that go and sometimes they’ll drop at the track,” said Ryan. “I think the ballpark benefited [Phil Hughes] and it will benefit Milone in whatever capacity we’re going to pitch him in.” It might not be fair to look at last year’s stats, as Milone obviously struggled mightily after being traded from Oakland, but Target Field doesn’t appear to have done him any favors. Milone’s ERA in Target Field was 11.57 last year, the highest in any ballpark. The only place worse was Fenway – which yesterday’s jetBlue Ballpark essentially copies. But Ryan’s point about Target Field keeping fly balls from becoming home runs appears true. Milone’s home run rate in Target Field was 0.9 HR/9, which was quite a bit lower than several other ballparks in which he pitched. “None of Mr. Boras’s business.” Commissioner Rob Manfred spoke to the media before yesterday’s game and was asked about Scott Boras’ criticism of the Cubs for not adding slugging prospect Chris Bryant to their roster. That move is widely perceived to be a financial one. By delaying adding Bryant to their roster for a few weeks, the Cubs delay his service clock from starting, meaning he’ll need to wait another whole year to become a free agent. Manfred, not surprisingly, doesn’t think the Cubs are doing anything wrong. “I don’t think that the Cubs decision with respect to Chris Bryant is really any of Mr. Boras’s business,” replied Manfred. "I think the Cubs – I know the Cubs – will make decisions that are best for the long-term competitiveness of the club.” An Answer From Outside? I don’t want to make too much of this because Terry Ryan was specifically asked, but it is possible that some folks from the opening day roster are not yet in the Twins organization. Terry Ryan mentioned that Jason Repko and Hector Corrasco were both examples of players the Twins picked up late in spring training from other clubs. “Right now is about the time that things start to speed up,” said Ryan. “There hasn’t been much action yet. It’s going to start.” If I was going to speculate on what the Twins would look for, it would be right-handed centerfielder who can hit southpaws. But Molitor did praise Shane Robinson in yesterday's postgame talk. He qualifies as a right-handed hitter and is good defensively. But he hasn't hit in the majors no matter which side he faced. Image courtesy of Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports View full article

I've been calling the 5th starter outings "tryouts," which sort of implies they count for something. It's not totally clear they do. Tommy Milone had his - probably last - tryout Thursday afternoon. I'll give you the numbers, because some of you might be interested - 5 IP, 3 ER, 6H, 3K, 2 BB. But a more complete summarization was that he pitched like the fairly good version of Tommy Milone. That is not the guy that Twins fans saw last summer, but he's also not going to be anything much better than a back-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. Image courtesy of Image courtesy of Image courtesy of John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports I've been calling the 5th starter outings "tryouts," which sort of implies they count for something. It's not totally clear they do. Tommy Milone had his - probably last - tryout Thursday afternoon. I'll give you the numbers, because some of you might be interested - 5 IP, 3 ER, 6H, 3K, 2 BB. But a more complete summarization was that he pitched like the fairly good version of Tommy Milone. That is not the guy that Twins fans saw last summer, but he's also not going to be anything much better than a back-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. He has four pitches, but his best fastball tops out in the highish 80s. He got a few strikeouts on changeups. He is best getting ahead in the count and you worry about him when he falls behind or is going through the lineup multiple times. He needs to manage a baseball game the way less-talented quarterbacks manage a football game. He needs to not make mistakes. He needs to mix things up. He needs a little luck. And unless something drastic changes, that is who he is going to be. What we learned this spring is that nothing has changed drastically, but he might be good enough to hold a spot in a rotation. And that, incidentally, is still a pretty nice player to have in the organization when the only thing the team gave up is a backup outfielder, and only needs to pay him first year arbitration money. Seeing a performance like this, it is easy to mock the idea that ANY of the stuff seen at spring training should be used in the roster decision-making process. After all, spring training is, by definition, a small sample size. It is a fraction of the available information we have on these guys. Beyond obvious questions like "Is this guy healthy" or "Has something changed drastically" it shouldn't be used to answer many questions. And for the most part, that is the way it works. More than 20 of the available roster spots on the 25-man roster were going to certain guys provided they weren't injured. The remaining spots are either pretty low leverage (like the last spots in the bullpen) or choosing among less than ideal options. OR finding out whether someone is "ready." For instance, the center field competition would have been over had Aaron Hicks (again) demonstrated he is ready for the majors. As late as this weekend Manager Paul Molitor didn't know who the starting center fielder is, which demonstrates that hasn't happened. Entering camp, I wondered if the same wasn't true of Trevor May and the fifth starter spot. But then May got sick and Milone was the one pitching in the major league fields and people started talking about Pelfrey and.... On Tuesday, I thought the three starts by Milone, May and Mike Pelfrey would all be important. Today, I'm wondering if the only one that really matters is that of May. The others are known commodities and their last couple of starts have confirmed that they are known commodities. I also wonder, given that we won't know when Pelfrey will next pitch until tomorrow, that he might already be out of the competition. If all that is true, then tomorrow's start is going to be much more fun to watch, as it truly counts for something. And it is wholly appropriate that it does. Twins Takes Twins lost 5-4 in 10 innings on the road versus the Red Sox. Spring training games often end tied after nine innings but Molitor wanted to see relief prospect Jake Reed pitch. Reed retired the first batter he faced, but threw a first pitch slider to Rusney Castillo which ended up barely clearing the Faux Green Monster at jetBlue field. Milone was relieved by Tim Stauffer, who has drawn a lot of commentary in our forums after my bullpen story. Given that Twins fans are not real familiar with him, it's easy to view him as a soft-throwing failed fifth starter candidate, but that's not the case. He pitched out of the bullpen for the Padres last year and racked up 57K in 56.1 IP as a reliever, and posted a 2.56 ERA. Those are awfully good setup man numbers. His poor camp is mostly a result of his failed fifth starter attempts, but today didn't do a ton to help his numbers. He got two K in 1.2 IP, but gave up four hits, though he was also the victim of a little bad luck. The worst part was that he walked in a run. He's not in any danger of not making the roster and Molitor noted in the postgame talk that Stauffer was throwing harder. But Stauffer might have a slow start this season or be used in lower leverage roles until the Twins see the guy he is supposed to be.Stauffer was pulled after walking in the run and replaced by Mark Hamburger. Hamburger was outstanding again, striking out two and giving up one hit in 2.1 IP. I had him as the odd man out in my bullpen calculus story yesterday, but its worth noting that he has put up far better strikeout numbers than Blaine Boyer or even the hard-throwing J.R. Graham. Hamburger now has 10 K in 9.2IP, versus 5K in 9.2 IP for Boyer and 6 K in 9.0 IP for Graham. I still think the odds are against him, but Hamburger would come north if it was up to me. I want to see more of this kid. I expect we will, one way or the other, later this year. Finally, regarding center field, Shane Robinson started in center field and got a hit in his first at-bat but also struck out twice. Later in the game Eddie Rosario replaced him but didn't have any challenges defensively. He went 0-2 with a strikeout. And finally, Jordan Schafer played left field for the whole game, going 0-4. The Red Sox starter was Wade Miley, a southpaw, against which Schafer has usually struggled. View full article

Stauffer last year as a reliever - 57K in 56.1 IP, 2.56 ERA. He' no your average failed 5th starter.

Lots of talk from him in the postgame talk about using the changeup on which Neil Allen has been working with him. And then Gibson talked a lot about working to improve his consistency by preparing mentally. I don't know if he'll be ableto maintain that, but I do know he seemed very confident today. It was good to see.

FWIW, Everyone seems very optimistic about Pinto. I'll be surprised if he doesn't make the roster right now.And personally, I feel like it will be Herrmann who gets the job over Fryer. I'll be shocked if Rosario is playing left field over Arcia on opening day. Stunned. I will be a lot less surprised if he's the center fielder.

I had forgotten that Milone has an option. If I can, I'll ask some folks about that tomorrow. I'll say that Terry Ryan said that it was a safe assumption that Milone would be on the roster if he doesn't start. He aso said that at some folks were going to need to perform now at the end of spring training when they were under the most pressure, and he could very well have been talking about Milone. I wouldn't judge Stauffer too much on his attempts to be s starter. I think we'll see him in tomorrow's game. Let's see what he looks like as a reliever.

After yesterday’s crazy day at Fort Myers, today was considerably more serene. It also served as a deep breath before the last big push for several roster spots. Twins Manager Paul Molitor says he would like to get the roster set by this weekend, so the pressure to perform (or at least not mess up) is high. “It always is in spring training,” said Twins General Manager Terry Ryan. “Especially when you get to the last ten games or so.” I’ve written a lot about the other spring training battles but have stayed away from the bullpen, partly because Nick Nelson covered it this weekend and partly because there were just so many options. But with recent demotions, the bullpen battles are becoming a little more clear – but not a lot more clear. There are just so many factors, and the biggest ones might not be the individual relievers' performance. It might be the performance of the guys trying out for the fifth starter job or whether or not the Twins can make a trade for a Rule 5 pick. Here’s the breakdown: There are seven spots. Four of them are essentially spoken for: 1. Glen Perkins has overcome his oblique strain, so he’s in. 2. Casey Fien is in and seems to have overcome whatever ailed him last September. 3. Brian Duensing was hit by a comebacker yesterday just over the knee on his thigh, but while he won’t pitch for a couple of days, he should have no problem being back for opening day. 4. Tim Stauffer has a major league contract, and while Terry Ryan stopped short of calling him an “absolute lock” in his pregame press conference, he did say he’ll be getting the “benefit of the doubt.” So he’s in. That leaves three spots and they are largely dependent on what happens in the fifth spot in the rotation. At least one, and possibly, two, are spoken for. Mike Pelfrey, Tommy Milone and Trevor May are all competing for that last spot. Ryan confirmed that “is a fair assumption” that Pelfrey and Milone would end up in the bullpen if they don’t win the job, and oddly enough would not say that Trevor May would be sent to Rochester if he didn’t with the job, leaving the option open that he could be in the bullpen, too. However, that chance seems very remote. Your guess is as good as mine regarding the fifth starter job. Everyone seems to be playing their cards very close to their vest. Prior to the postgame conference, I would have handicapped it like this: Pelfrey 1:1 Milone 2:1 May 5:1 But I talked to at least one veteran sportswriter who thought Milone was still in the lead, and it also seemed like there was some confusion whether Pelfrey would get another start with the big league club. Whether that means he’s out of the running or they just don’t need to see any more is unknown. So again, take those odds with much more than a grain of salt. Like, maybe a shaker of salt. Back to the bullpen. Whoever wins could have a major effect on the makeup of the bullpen. Let’s look at the scenarios. What If Pelfrey Wins The Fifth Starter Spot? 5. Tommy Milone becomes the second (or third if you count Perkins) lefty in the bullpen. That leaves two spots in the bullpen. My best guess is they are taken by the right-handers: 6. Blaine Boyer and 7. J.R. Graham Missing out: RHP Mark Hamburger LHP Caleb Thielbar, Aaron Thompson Boyer and Graham are mostly a guess, though they have had great camps. But so have all the guys that are still in camp, so either one could be replaced by Hamburger. It’s also possible that the Twins could decide to still take another left-hander, and Terry Ryan praised both Thielbar and Thompson’s spring earlier today. Ryan also said a few days ago he doesn’t feel strongly about how many left-handers or right-handers are in the bullpen. What If Milone Wins The Fifth Starter Spot? 5. Mike Pelfrey becomes the third right-hander in the bullpen. That leaves two spots in the bullpen. My best guess is they would want a right-hander and a left-hander, so let’s go with: 6. Caleb Thielbar and 7. J.R. Graham Missing out: RHP Mark Hamburger LHP Blaine Boyer, Aaron Thompson I’m in the minority in thinking that the Twins would choose Graham over Boyer. But since Graham is a Rule 5 pick and since Boyer isn’t on the 40-man roster, that’s the way I’m going. I should emphasize – Boyer has really impressed people. If the Twins decide to keep Boyer and send Graham down in this scenario, they would either need to return him to the Braves or make a deal. In the past, the Twins have had some luck making deals with the Braves; that’s how they secured Scott Diamond. That happened very late in spring training that year, on the 28th of March. I’m optimistic that this could happen again. As for the lefties, I don’t know if Thielbar is really in front of Thompson. I think Thielbar will get the benefit of the doubt given his time on the team the last few years. Then today, Thompson pitched before Thielbar did today and Thielbar did struggle a bit, giving up two hits and the winning run (though I think it should have been unearned). However, Molitor emphasized that he didn’t mean to give them a “head-to-head” matchup; he just wasn’t able to use Thompson in the game yesterday, so he made sure he got him in the game today. What If May Wins The Fifth Starter Spot? 5. Mike Pelfrey becomes the third right-hander in the bullpen. 6. Tommy Milone becomes the second lefty in the bullpen. That leaves just one spot in the bullpen. My best guess is they would want a right-hander, so let’s go with: 7. Blaine Boyer Missing out: RHP Mark Hamburger, J.R. Graham LHP Caleb Thielbar, Aaron Thompson Looking at this, it seems that Trevor May is going to need to overcome even more than having an option to send him down and a limited spring training resume due to the flu. Putting him in the fifth spot also squeezes the bullpen that much more. (Oh, and the forecast for his start on Friday has a 90% chance of rain. What’s next? Locusts?) If you want to distill things a little further, it feels like there will likely be two spots in the bullpen and three pitchers essentially competing for it: Boyer, Graham and Thielbar. The key factor might be if they can work a trade for Graham. If so, and May doesn’t win the fifth job, the logjam could be cleared. Image courtesy of Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports View full article

To quote Halsey Hall: “Holy Cow!” It was a big day in Fort Myers with early roster cuts, an exciting win over the Blue Jays, and of course the big Brian Dozier contract. Let’s catch up on all of them, notes style. Twins Make Roster Cuts Innings and at-bats are a very valuable commodity. As split-squad games end and as the regulars need more innings to prepare for the season, that commodity becomes scarcer and scarcer. Image courtesy of Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports To quote Halsey Hall: “Holy Cow!” It was a big day in Fort Myers with early roster cuts, an exciting win over the Blue Jays, and of course the big Brian Dozier contract. Let’s catch up on all of them, notes style. Twins Make Roster Cuts Innings and at-bats are a very valuable commodity. As split-squad games end and as the regulars need more innings to prepare for the season, that commodity becomes scarcer and scarcer. This drives a lot of the cuts that happen towards the end of spring training; the coaching staff just doesn't have room to play a guy, so why keep him in camp? When Stephen Pryor was optioned to Rochester on Monday, Twins General Manager Terry Ryan talked about that. "We had him on the trip [sunday] and he didn't pitch," explained Ryan. "Now it's time. We have to get him going. So we're sending him across the street." The same thing happened today when six more players were removed from the spring training roster. Over the weekend, the Twins needed some extra bodies in camp. They had a split-squad game on Saturday, so they needed to field two teams. On Sunday and Monday they played games in Jupiter and Clearwater, two of the longer road trips they face. A lot of veterans don't go on those trips, so that opened up at-bats and innings for other players. (Incidentally, two people who always DO make that long road trip are the Twins manager and the Twins general manager. Talking to Terry Ryan the other day, he feels very strongly that if he's going to ask the kids to ride three hours across Florida for a game, he should go too, and he says each of the Twins managers since Tom Kelly has felt the same way. Ryan says he has never missed one as GM of the Twins.) So cuts were expected today, and they included relief pitcher AJ Achter, second baseman James Beresford, outfielders Eric Farris and Jose Martinez, first baseman Jose Martinez and catcher Tyler Grimes. You likely don’t recognize most of those names. Only Achter was on the 40-man roster and pitched with the Twins a little last September. Terry Ryan was impressed by Achter this spring, saying ""I think he fared well here," summarized Ryan. “He's behind a couple of other guys but he did a nice job. You'll probably see him through the course of this season at some point, because he's one of those guys that will get down there and get to work." Fifth Starter Notes The Twins revealed yesterday how they're going to handle one more round of "tryouts" for the fifth starter role. The problem was that both Tommy Milone and Trevor May last pitched on Saturday in split-squad games. So both were scheduled to pitch Thursday, but there was no split-squad game. One could pitch in the AAA game, but that would indicate that he was on the outside looking in. Instead, the Twins are bumping May back to Friday. That day's starting pitcher, Phil Hughes, will pitch in the AAA game. So it looks like we'll see May, Milone and Mike Pelfrey starting consecutive games on Thursday through Saturday. That will surely be the last chance for them all to make an impression before final roles are determined. Midseason Form Nick wrote earlier this spring about how much more comfortable Joe Mauer looked playing first base. In today's game, he and Danny Santana turned two 3-6-3 double plays. It was fun to watch. Center Field Competition In the center field competition, Jordan Schafer started in center field and hit his first home run of this spring. It's also notable it came against a southpaw, against whom Schafer has struggled his whole career. Molitor recognized it and talked about it, but thinks Schafer has made improvements against both sides. “The big key for him offensively has been the mechanical changes he has made which has calmed himself down in the batter’s box. It’s a more controlled swing and seeing the ball a little bit longer, but still having enough bat speed to catch it up front.” Eddie Rosario pinch hit for Schafer in the bottom of the ninth with the winning run on second base and drove him in with a single to left-center field. “He’s a guy, for me, that likes those moments,” revealed Molitor after the game. “He’s not intimidated. He watched the guy. He knew he was throwing a lot of off-speed pitches. He kept it in the middle of the field and delivered.” Molitor also talked a little bit about Rosario’s defense in center field. He recognizes Rosario isn’t the best option there defensively, but sounds like he’s comfortable with Rosario as a center fielder due to everything else he brings to the table. “I think he’s more comfortable in center and left than right,” said Molitor. “He doesn’t have the speed of [Aaron] Hicks or Schafer, but I think the fact that he understands the pitch-to-pitch importance, and with how he’s progressing his game - offensively and on the base paths and defensively - he’s obviously good enough to play out there, we think.” That said, Rosario hasn’t played in center field since Thursday. From this morning’s lineup, it looked like he would play center field in the later innings, but he didn't, only coming into the game in the bottom of the ninth. For what it's worth, Molitor sounded like he was much happier with his center field options after today's game than he sounded this weekend. The Veterans Get Into The Act, Too Besides getting a lifetime’s worth of financial security, Brian Dozier also got a home run on his first pitch today, giving the Twins an early lead. Later, as the friend to whom I was talking was disparaging the Torii Hunter signing, Hunter deposited a hanging off-speed pitch into the bleachers. Ouch Brian Duensing was hit in the thigh by a comebacker in the seventh inning and had to leave the game. “That’s something that is going to tighten up very quickly, so I had to get him out of there,” explained Molitor. “I think he’s going to be fine. He’s going to be a little sore.” The Game Oh yeah, there was a game that the Twins won 6-5 in the bottom of the ninth after blowing the lead in the top of the ninth. There were a lot of highlights, but there were also several times when they went into full-blown Keystone Cops mode. In the regular season, this would have been a thriller. In spring training, it just looked sloppy. One Last Dozier Note If you’re looking for a recap of the Dozier contract, start here, but I could do a whole second story with all the talk there was after the press conference. Instead, I’ll limit myself to one conversation I had at the end with Damon Lapa, Dozier’s agent. It deserves to be transcribed and published in its entirety, and if I have time later I will, but I wanted to touch on one point specifically. I asked about the possibility of the Twins getting an option year on one of Dozier’s free agency years, because I sensed Dozier’s side really wanted to hit free agency on time. Q: How dead set against an option year in free agency were you guys, or was that something that was somewhat on the table, but it just didn’t work out? A: You never say never. I think you look at anything in the context of the entire offer. So something in the back of the contract that would function as a team option – you don’t strictly rule it out, but you look at it in the totality of everything that is being offered. And in this case, through our discussions back and forth, this proposal just made sense not to attach anything to the back end. But as far as the future, you have to look at every negotiation and the player’s particular situation.” When someone says “You never say never” I usually means “damn near almost never.” So to me that translates as: “If we were going to give a team option for a year of free agency, then we weren’t going to be giving big potential savings.” Personally, I feel the Twins made the right choice. I would rather get Dozier a little cheaper for the next few years than get an option on him when he’s 31 years old. Better to cross the bridge when one comes to it. And for what it's worth, it doesn't sound like Dozier or Lapa are opposed to looking at that in the future. View full article

You're right. I'll adjust that. I worded it poorly. I meant that he is in his fifth year.

Also some notes from the press conference and stuff after: The question about Polanco was raised a couple times after the conference. Rob Antony's response is that Polanco is no guarantee - remember, they thought Dozier was going to be a shorstop, so things don't always work out the way they think they will. And, of course, that's where the fact that there is no no-trade clause is important, too. This contract, assuming Dozier continues to perform, could be an asset instead of a liability in trade discussions. Also, talking to Damon Lapa, Dozier's agent, it sounds like hitting free agency as a 31-year-old was VERY important to them. Any attempt to delay that was going to require some big adjustments to the deal to include that.

The easy answer is they have a LOT less leverage. At this time next year, assuming Dozier has a year similar to last, he's making close to $4M in guaranteed money for 2016 and already has a lifetime of security locked up. He isnt willing to give nearly as much as a discount on years two and three, if a deal even happens. In fact, I can' see a deal working out unless it inlcludes free agency years.

The Minnesota Twins announced today that they and second baseman Brian Dozier have signed a 4-year guaranteed contract that will pay Dozier $20 million guaranteed through the 2018 season. The deal buys out Dozier's arbitration years but not any of the years in which he will be a free agent. Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports The Minnesota Twins announced today that they and second baseman Brian Dozier have signed a 4-year guaranteed contract that will pay Dozier $20 million guaranteed through the 2018 season. The deal buys out Dozier's arbitration years but not any of the years in which he will be a free agent. The contract makes sense from both sides. Dozier gets $20 million up front, as opposed to having to work on year-to-year agreements over the next four years. He also gets a significant bump in salary this year. The Twins take on the risk of Dozier, who had a breakthrough season last year, severely regressing or getting injured. In return, they should see overall savings in future years compared to what Dozier would have received in arbitration over the next four years if he continues to play at a fairly high level. Dozier's .242 batting average last year disguised an outstanding year. His patience at the plate led to a .345 on-base percentage and he powered out 23 home runs, all while playing a middle infield position at an above-average level. His OPS last year was fourth among qualified MLB second baseman, above that of better known names liks Chase Utley and Dustin Pedroia. He's certainly shown no sign of regression this spring, as he is hitting .462. The contract pays him $2 million dollars this year (as opposed to $590,000) and then $3M, $6M and $9M in his three years of arbitration. It is an inexact science to estimate exactly what future arbitration awards would have been, but for any starting player, those values are on the low end. And for player who is an all-star, they could be very low. For instance, Pirates second baseman Neil Walker, who had similar production to that of Dozier last year, is making $8M in his second year of arbitration - and he lost his case. compare that to the $6M that Dozier is now guaranteed. Correction: Walker's 3rd year of arbitration wa $8M, but it still compares to Dozier's 2nd year of arbitration, because both are in their fifth year of service time. Walker was a Super-2 player, so he was able to reach arbitration a year earlier. Plus, the average arbitration awards tend to go up from year to year because they reflect the free agent salaries at the high end, and those values are also increasing significantly under the new collective bargaining agreement. The trick with a lot of these contracts, and particularly with this one, is how long the deal should be. Dozier's case is a little unique in that he is old for a player entering his 3rd year; he's 27 years old. That means he won't become a free agent until he is 31 years old, which is often on the downside of a player's career. So it is of questionable value to guarantee money out that far. Often when a team signs a deal like this, it is to guarantee that they buy out a free agent year or two for a player who will hit free agency in their 20s. This deal ignores that option and strikes a different balance. It runs exactly the same time frame at whcih the player would have been under team control, but it gives enough potential future savings to take on the risk of guaranteeing the money. As with any deal, both sides probably wish it were a little different. Dozier's side likely wishes it was for more money or had another guaranteed year. The Twins side likely wishes they would have made it for a little less money, or had a team option when Dozier reaches free agency. But it looks like a solid, thoughtful agreement for both sides. View full article