John Bonnes

The best team and the best player in baseball are coming to Target Field this weekend. You might want to change some plans. The Best Team The Angels have the most wins in baseball with 83 victories. I didn’t see this coming, but I don’t feel too bad – neither did Las Vegas.Vegas set the over/under on season wins for Los Angeles at 86.5, which the Angels could break before they leave Target Field. I stupidly thought that was crazy high. After all, this was a team that imploded last year with only 78 wins after winning 89 games the year before. Their starting pitching ranked 22nd in the majors in ERA. There was talk of firing manager Mike Scioscia at the conclusion of the season, though he hung on. And after making big splash after big splash for the last several offseasons, their winter was deafeningly quiet. This felt like the beginning of a very long death rattle. Nope. The pitching staff completely rebounded , moving up to 9th in the league in ERA. Pair that with an offense that is 4th in runs scored. While the rival A’s received praise for their aggressive trade deadline moves, the Angles not only have established a 4.5 game lead in the AL West, they overcame a 3.5 game deficit in early August to do so. That included a four-game sweep of the A’s last week. The Best Player Speaking of Vegas, Angels centerfielder Mike Trout is now a 1/8 favorite to win the AL MVP Award that has eluded him thus far. That means if you want to bet that Trout will win the AL MVP, you need to pony up $800 to win $100. If Vegas will still take those odds, you might want to mortgage the farm, because it’s a lock. It’ll be interesting to see if the sabrmetric community rallies around him this year, like they did the last two years when he led the AL in Wins Above Replacement (WAR), only to finish second in the AL MVP voting. Because this year he doesn’t lead the league in WAR. That honor belong to Oakland’s Josh Donaldson who has a 6.9 WAR compared to a 6.6 WAR for Trout. Trout may win the award in what has been his worst full year in the majors. There are two differences. First, his batting average has slipped considerably this year. He entered the season with a .314 batting average and is hitting “only” .285 this year. The 40 point decrease from the 2013 has led to a 60 point slump in on-base percentage and OPS, although his OPS is still third in the league. In fact, he is still well-represented across the batting leader boards. Trout ranks 4th in slugging, second in runs scored, first in total bases, fourth in home runs and second in RBIs. He also ranks first overall in offensive WAR, which points us to the other area in which he has slipped….. According to defensive metrics, Trout has taken a step backward in center field this year. In 2012, Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) ranked him as very good in center, and last year he was slightly above average. This year he is below average although Inside Edge Fielding doesn’t seem to agree. In fact, it shows him reaching more “Unlikely”, “Even” and “Likely” plays than he did lat year. Still, it appears he deserves the trophy this year, regardless of whether you’re an old school or new school baseball fan. He certainly deserves the cost of a ticket. I’ll be taking advantage of one of the last good weekends this year to watch an MVP in action. Click here to view the article

I think I speak for most of Twins Territory when I double-negatively say that I will never NOT want to beat the White Sox. It’s sure nice of them to come back for one last visit, even if it’s just a two-game series. It’s also nice of them to kind of suck. September Sprints and Swoons One can spin doctor this pattern either way, but after 12 years the pattern itself is pretty clear: Twins manager Ron Gardenhire’s teams rise to the occasion when they need to, but fall to pieces just as severely when a season is hopeless.Below are the 12 years of the Gardenhire era. The first column is the year. The second is how close the Twins were to the top of the AL Central when September started. And the last two columns were how they did in September: Download attachment: Gardenhire_Sept_record.jpg With the possible exception 2008, a season in which they finished September under .500 but still forced a 163rd game, the pattern has been consistent. When Gardenhire’s team is within range of a division title, they win games. When they are not, they don’t. That has been particularly true last three years, when the club’s September record has only been 27-55. The Twins entered this month 15.5 games back. That doesn’t bode terribly well for the team. Sox Sliding However, the White Sox are in a similar bind. While the Twins had a rough August, going just 11-18, the White Sox were even worse, finishing the month with just nine wins, including a seven-game losing streak. They entered the month just three games under .500. They exit the month thirteen games under .500 and playing out their second consecutive hopeless year. Hopeless years seem to be a similar issue for White Sox manager Robin Ventura – or maybe much, much worse. The White Sox August swoon is reminiscent of their swoon last September, when they also found themselves hopelessly out of the AL Central race. As bad as the Twins finished 2013, the Sox were actually worse, finishing the month 7-21. But Ventura’s problems could go beyond keeping a second division team motivated. He might just have trouble maintaining a team’s focus for an entire year. Chicago also finished Ventura’s first year dismally, posting an 11-17 record in September and missing the playoffs after starting the month atop the AL Central. You might think a guy with that record might feel a little heat, especially from a fan base as passionate as that of the White Sox. If so, it’s not obvious: instead he’s being praised by local media for getting better all the time. (Too bad his teams aren’t.) ITPS! (It’s the Pitching, Stupid!) The two-game series gives the Twins a chance to tie the White Sox for fourth place in the division after returning from a seven-game road trip against first place teams. But if the Twins want to show any kind of improvement over last year, it’s going to have to be the pitching staff that leads the charge, and that is looking less and less likely. We’ll start with the season-long stats: the Twins overall ERA is 4.56, 28th in the American League. The starting rotation’s ERA is 5.12 and that is dead last. Also, it’s getting worse instead of better: August’s team ERA was 5.51. (Again, last in the majors). The two guys starting against the White Sox – Tom Milone and Trevor May – have combined to allow more than a run per inning, which means they have a combined ERA over 9.00 as Twins. Both should be seemingly fighting for their jobs, but at this point it isn’t clear if they are or not. Neither seems to be in danger of losing his spot this September. Neither one is likely to be someone the Twins will trust enough to ink into their rotation in 2015. So both are as likely to win a spot in 2015 based on their performance next spring as this September. Twins fans may want to view the next two homestands similarly; this is extended spring training. It’s up to you as to whether you want to view that as a positive or negative, but I’ll go with the former. We’re going to see a lot of new faces, build some hope for next year, and suck the marrow out of this wonderful weather we’ve had this summer. If this winter is anything like last winter, we’ll be treasuring these September contests, win or lose. But yeah, it would be nice if we could win some games, too. Click here to view the article

In a shortened show, Aaron and John broadcast live to an enthralled audience at the Minnesota State Fair. They discuss the odd roster move that cost the team Sam Deduno, the miserable year that top Twins prospects endured and then tackle the decisions the Twins will (or should) make in the upcoming offseason. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it atGleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click the Play button below. Click here to view the article

Twins Daily and Vikings Journal break all kinds of rules. But if you just repost your video and tweet it, that'll work.

As part of my ALS Ice Bucket Challenge, I'm challenging all Twins Daily, all Vikings Journal writers and my podcast partner, Aaron Gleeman, to do their own ice bucket challenge. Just videotape it, tweet it and copy me in the tweet. For each one, Chrissie and I will donate $50 in memorial of Bev Benson, my friend Bob's mom, who was afflicted with this terrible disease. For more (and to see me get very cold) check out the video. This is open to anyone who writes on any of the blogs on these sites. For those of you that have already done the challenge, tweet out the evidence and I'll be happy to include you in the donation pool. Thanks, John Click here to view the article

Here’s the latest Vikings Journal Top 10: 1. ESPN suggests that Teddy Bridgewater is already washed up. Bo Mitchell brings some sanity to the party. 2. Should (can) the Vikings trade Christian Ponder to the Rams? 3. Are the Vikings as resistant to analytics as the Twins? 4. Matt Cassel got the nod and it was the right decision. 5. No Juice Podcast co-host Dan Anderson breaks down the Vikings win totals with his best/worst/most likely analysis. 6. Arif Hasan predicts the Vikings final 53-man roster and then finds 53 cut players that could help.7. What’s trending, what’s worth defending and what might be ending? 8. Can Cordarrelle Patterson to reach 1000 yards receving? 9. Adrian Peterson is drinking the purple Kool-Aid. 10. Long interviews with offensive coordinator Norv Turner and defensive coordinator George Edwards. Click here to view the article

I hope you'll allow me this non-baseball topic on my blog today. We had our last "first-day-of-school" picture today with both kids, as The Chatty Chatty Princess™ starts her senior year and The Boy™ has his first day in high school. It brought to mind TCCP's first day of kindergarten, a day I missed, but documented twelve years ago on my new "TwinsGeek.com" blog with this story: ------------------------------ He didn't feel the gush that everyone said he would feel the first time he held her in his arms. He frowned. "I've never been especially good about feeling emotions." There was excitement to be sure. And a feeling of amazement. But mostly the infant seemed like an infinite puzzle to be pieced together. They had a job to do. She needed to eat. Sleep. Learn she was a part of a family. She would cry from the moment he came home from work, and he would walk around the house with her, showing her the curtains, the flowers, the Kirby Pucket face-on-a-stick; anything to distract her from her exhaustion or hunger for five minutes and then five minutes more. "She was happy before you came home, honest." --------------------------------- Shortly after the colic passed, they watched her roll onto her back. Six eyes grew wide and looked at each other. She immediately began working on rolling the other way. And then crawling. And walking. And talking. Definitely talking. And with each victory, came more self-assuredness. Now they had a new job to do. Limits needed to be set and erased. Challenges needed to made and met. Illusions needed to be poked. Usually, the toughest part of the job was knowing when to hold a hand and when to turn away. When to watch out for her without watching her. It was one of these times that he realized he felt the gush. He hadn't loved her at the hospital. He had fallen in love with her at home. And that was infinitely better. --------------------------------- Yesterday, his wife held her hand until she delivered her to her first kindergarten class - and then she turned away, and walked home. He hadn't gone. He had gone to work, like he did everyday. It was no big deal. It certainly wasn't for his daughter. Just new friends to play with. A new adult to charm. New toys, and art projects and songs to sing. Not so very different than another activity hour at the community rec center. But as he drove to work, he realized he knew better. It was not so long ago. He remembers his kindergarten and Mrs. Manfred. First grade and Miss Oeschlager. His hurry to clear the next hurdle, face the next challenge, race to adulthood. He sees it in her. She can't grow up fast enough. The blessed quandary about when to hold a hand or turn away will be less frequent now. And he wasn't there this morning because it WAS a big deal. So on I-94, he found himself struggling to wipe underneath his glasses, as too few memories triggered too many emotions for his eyes to hold. There was sadness. And pride. And the gush. But mostly there was life's intense taste when one is lucky enough to get a full dose. And he sighed. "I've never been especially good about feeling emotions."

Aaron and John podcast live from the Touch Em All Pub Crawl sponsored by Maestro Dobel Tequila and Three Olives Vodka and speak with a variety of guests about the revival of the Twins offense and hear stories about AJ Pierzynski. They they broadcast on KFAN and talk about Terry Ryan all but saying Ron Gardenhire will be back in 2015 and discuss what they want to see in September including Joe Mauer, Danny Santana, Aaron Hicks, Phil Hughes, Brian Dozier, Ricky Nolasco, Kyle Gibson, Alex Meyer, Trevor May, and Josmil Pinto.You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click the Play button below. Click here to view the article

Today's the day of Twins Daily's "Touch Em All" Pub Crawl sponsored by Three Olives Vodka and Maestro Dobel Tequila. You're too late for one of the t-shirts or Twins tickets (they were sold weeks ago), but that doesn't mean you can't join us and hang out and talk baseball. You'll also get to witness a Gleeman and the Geek podcast recording in-person, you lucky ducks. Here's the itinerary:We’ll meet up at noon at Barrio Tequila Bar in Lowertown, which also has been awarded some of the best Mexican food in the Twin Cities. They’re hinting at an all-you-can-eat taco special to gear us up for the trip ahead and a raffle for some free pizzas from Papa Johns. Also, Aaron Gleeman has promised to show us videos of his cat. From there we’ll jump on the new Metro Transit Green Line to the U of M and Campus Pizza. There will be more food, drinks and a raffle for DiamondCentric t-shirts. Parker will also entertain us with outtakes from the Twins Daily photo shoot by Twin Cities Business Journal. Our third stop is DiNoko’s BarZia in downtown Minneapolis, home of Chicago Style Deep Dish pizza. There will be yet more specials for the t-shirt wearing crowd and a raffle of four highly sought after Twins Daily Winter Meltdown Pint Glasses. Nick Nelson will impress us all by not rapping. Finally, we’ll end where we did last year – at Mason’s Barre & Restaurant. If you were with us last year or at the Meltdown or at the Home Run Derby party, you know they always take care of us. We’ll also have a very special raffle….. At each bar, you’ll be able to get a stamp on your hand. Anyone who is at Mason’s and has all three of the other stamps will be eligible for a special drawing for two pairs of front row Twins tickets for a game later this year. Finally, you’ll be going to a Twins game with us all where we’ll watch Alex Meyer or Trevor May pitch a perfect game while various Twins players buy us rounds of cocktails*. We spend enough time online or listening to each other on podcasts. It’s time to meet up. Please get in early so we can make sure we see you there. *Not totally guaranteed. Hell, none of this it totally guaranteed. We’ll do the best we can. Click here to view the article

To the writers above - thank you. This has been an incredibly gratifying week. I really hope we all hear more from you.

First, thank you very much for that breakdown. That is much more clear. The question is whether we should be focusing on the first year of those 90 loss seasons or the last year. Unfortunately, for this data, it's the last, which puts the "reubild" out to the end of the decade. I don't feel like that's accurate in this case - there are signs of a steadily improving organization and talent level just below the surface of the majors. But it shows that it ain't easy to bounce back from 90 loss seasons.

I watched that whole game and somehow never noticed who the opposing team was. :-) Thanks.

Sponsored by Ticket King Coming to town are the AL Central leading…..ROYALS?!? Yup. 6.5 game back after the All-Star break, the Royals started their second half by losing their first four games – and have won 17 out of the 21 games since. Combine that with a Tigers team that has gone 2-7 on their latest road trip, and you have Royals wearing the division crown, albeit only since Monday.Leading their charge has been the same unit that has been doing so all year: their pitching. Overall, the Royals have a 3.56 ERA this year (compared to the Twins mark of 4.35) but they’ve been even better since the break, posting a 2.80 ERA over those 25 games. (You don’t want to know how THAT compares to the Twins.) Given those numbers, the pitching matchups look a little better than you might have hoped. Let’s go through them each and figure out which ticket you like the best: Friday – Danny Duffy vs Ricky Nolasco Duffy is the 25-year-old tough luck southpaw with a 2.57 ERA but a 7-10 record. He seems to be good in shorter outings, which is fine give the solid KC bullpen. But the real story here is the return of Ricky Nolasco to Target Field. Twins Territory is hoping that his first half struggles (5.90 ERA and 6.3 K/9) were due to a conceled elbow injury instead of Americanleaguitis. The organization would probably be happy just to confirm that the elbow injury really is just a strain, seeing as he’s still in the first year of that $49 million deal. If you’re looking for the most important game for the Twins hopes in 2015, this is probably it. Saturday – Yordano Ventura vs Phil Hughes KC’s fireballer faces the Twins defacto ace. Hughes had an excellent outing this week versus the Athletics, finally ending the Twins losing streak versus Oakland. Ventura is no slouch (3.45 ERA) but if you looking for the game the Twins are most likely to win, this is your choice. Sunday – Jeremy Guthrie vs. Tommy Milone This is Twins fans first chance to see Tommy Milone pitch for their team in person. If you were distracted at the trade deadline, Terry Ryan absolutely stole this 27-year-old left-hander and his 3.52 ERA from the A’s for Sam Fuld. His initial outing was encouraging, giving up just two runs in six innings, albeit versus the punchless Astros. Milone is not going to be an ace, but he could be a significant arm for the Twins for the next three years. Plus, his ERA is lower than that of any other starting pitcher currently in the rotation. If you’re curious and risk-adverse this is the game to target. If you’re curious and a little more adventurous…… Monday – Jason Vargas vs. Trevor May Twins fans waited a month or two longer than they hoped for May’s promotion from Rochester – and then wished they had waited a bit longer. With two outs in the second inning, May started walking the incredibly patient Oakland lineup and didn’t make it to the third inning, finishing with seven walks in two innings. Things went better in relief a couple of days later, but he still has twice as many walks as inning pitched. Still, he’s just 24 years old and straight-up earned that promotion in Rochester with a 2.84 ERA and 94 K in 98.1 IP. He belongs here, but he’s going to need to show he can throw the ball past some hitters while it’s still in the strike zone. If you want to help a kid who looked like he could really use some support, bring your warmed up and enthusiastic vocal chords to this game. Twins fans need to make him feel at home. ~~~ Wow, Friday night’s Twins tickets are a little scarce, but there are still some nice seats down the right field line. Saturday looks like the budget conscious night; there are lots of cheaper Target Field seats available in the third deck for Phil Hughes’ start. Sunday looks like a great day to work on that tan. Plenty of lower level Twins seats are available to feel the sun on your shoulders. But of all the games, Monday has the best Target Field seat selection. And don’t forget! All of your seats are 10% cheaper and support Twins Daily if you use the code DAILYDOUBLE. Whatever your needs (football is coming….), your local ticket supplier, Ticket King, can help. Click here to view the article

On a day-to-day basis, Twins Daily talks Twins, but what fuels Twins Daily is Community. That’s what I (and most of us) find even more rewarding than our baseball obsession. That’s true of other sports, too. I don’t know how many times The Voice of Reason™ and I have gone out to watch a sporting event just because we wanted to be in a crowd. These are the memories that stay with me, good or bad. Downtown in ’91. Joe Carter’s heart-breaking blast in a South Street bar. The Vikings taking a knee with friends in our basement. The North Stars grinding their way to the Stanley Cup Finals as I worked at William’s Pub. Sam Cassel getting hurt in 2004 as my friends and I shook our heads.The moment makes them memorable, but so does the shared sense of community. THAT is what I really value about sports. That is why “we cheer for laundry,” as the cynics say, but they miss the point. It isn’t the laundry that is important. It’s the “we.” That’s why we’re launching VikingsJournal.com today. We believe in sports. We believe in community. We believe in we. And I think you’re going to find the same excellence, love, passion, intelligence, independence and civility that define Twins Daily, only we’re going to bring it to the most popular sport and the most popular team in the state, the Vikings. So please stop by today and check out our excellent writers and comment on our forums and encourage the football bloggers and try and win yourself one of a couple dozen free pizzas. In the new reality, communities don’t hoard their members. They share their passion. If football is a passion of yours – or if community is passion of yours – stop by. We’ll welcome you all over again. Sincerely, John, Brock, Seth, Nick, Parker, Bo, AJ, Arif and Joe --- Speaking of pizza, the Twins won yesterday so Friday you can get a 1/2 price large or extra-large pizza at PapaJohn.com using the promo code 'twinswin'. Click here to view the article

Since you have the data, let me as a slightly different question. Of teams that lost 90 games in a season, what percentage made it to the playoffs after 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, etc.? So, for instance, say we look at the teams that lost 90 game in 2010, 2011 and 2012: 24 Teams had 90 losses in those 3 seasons. Of them, 4 made it back to the postseson the next year. That's 25%. 18 of those teams have had up to two years to bounce back, and of those, 5 have (that includes those that bounced back in 1 year). That's 28%. 12 of those teams have had up to three years to bounce back, and five of them have (again, including those that bounced back in years 1 or 2). That's 42%. BTW, among those teams that haven't yet, there are Washington, the Royals and Seattle, all of whom could do it this year.

I see you're posting a lot of short entries in your blog. In general, short posts like this will get a lot more response in the forum than in your blog. If you want to shoot me an email at John At Bonnes dot com I'll be happy to walk you through how to do that.