That's the Ticket: The Best of The Best

Vegas set the over/under on season wins for Los Angeles at 86.5, which the Angels could break before they leave Target Field. I stupidly thought that was crazy high. After all, this was a team that imploded last year with only 78 wins after winning 89 games the year before. Their starting pitching ranked 22^nd in the majors in ERA. There was talk of firing manager Mike Scioscia at the conclusion of the season, though he hung on. And after making big splash after big splash for the last several offseasons, their winter was deafeningly quiet. This felt like the beginning of a very long death rattle.

Nope. The pitching staff completely rebounded , moving up to 9^th in the league in ERA. Pair that with an offense that is 4^th in runs scored. While the rival A’s received praise for their aggressive trade deadline moves, the Angles not only have established a 4.5 game lead in the AL West, they overcame a 3.5 game deficit in early August to do so. That included a four-game sweep of the A’s last week.

The Best Player

Speaking of Vegas, Angels centerfielder Mike Trout is now a 1/8 favorite to win the AL MVP Award that has eluded him thus far. That means if you want to bet that Trout will win the AL MVP, you need to pony up $800 to win $100. If Vegas will still take those odds, you might want to mortgage the farm, because it’s a lock.

It’ll be interesting to see if the sabrmetric community rallies around him this year, like they did the last two years when he led the AL in Wins Above Replacement (WAR), only to finish second in the AL MVP voting. Because this year he doesn’t lead the league in WAR. That honor belong to Oakland’s Josh Donaldson who has a 6.9 WAR compared to a 6.6 WAR for Trout. Trout may win the award in what has been his worst full year in the majors.

There are two differences. First, his batting average has slipped considerably this year. He entered the season with a .314 batting average and is hitting “only” .285 this year. The 40 point decrease from the 2013 has led to a 60 point slump in on-base percentage and OPS, although his OPS is still third in the league.

In fact, he is still well-represented across the batting leader boards. Trout ranks 4^th in slugging, second in runs scored, first in total bases, fourth in home runs and second in RBIs. He also ranks first overall in offensive WAR, which points us to the other area in which he has slipped…..

According to defensive metrics, Trout has taken a step backward in center field this year. In 2012, Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) ranked him as very good in center, and last year he was slightly above average. This year he is below average although Inside Edge Fielding doesn’t seem to agree. In fact, it shows him reaching more “Unlikely”, “Even” and “Likely” plays than he did lat year.

Still, it appears he deserves the trophy this year, regardless of whether you’re an old school or new school baseball fan. He certainly deserves the cost of a ticket. I’ll be taking advantage of one of the last good weekends this year to watch an MVP in action.