Secondary User

Guys....the Zimmerman for Dozier et al. deal was under the assumption that you can extend Zimmerman. No one beileves you make the deal if you don't have an extension in place

The Kia Tigers haven't decided whether they're going to accept the winning bid, and teams are not notified they won until the KBO team decides to accept the offer.

Newest report on MLBTradeRumors has Rangers winning the posting

As a fan who's defended the Twins adamantly over the last four years, this start to free agency couldn't have been any more disheartening. I'm very aware that the gears of major league rebuilds turn slowly, particularly when you look at where the Twins organization was after the 2011 season. I staunchly defended signings like Marquis, Correia, and Pelfrey for two reasons. One, the starting pitching markets in those seasons weren't particularly deep, and two (more importantly), it didn't make sense to invest significant money in contracts that would mostly cover rebuilding years. I stood by the decision to move both Span and Revere in one off season because, even if it hasn't panned out as we had hoped, outfield was considered a position of depth at the time and the organization needed legitimate pitching prospects. I was fine with letting Aaron Hicks get two cracks to be the guy in center field because the team wasn't going anywhere. I have stood by Terry Ryan over and over and over again because I've watched the growth of our farm system turn into one of the best in the league. But to hear the rumors that are coming out in these initial weeks makes me seriously question the acumen of this front office. Justin Masterson is a fine pitching target. He's got a lot of upside and is a great bounce back candidate. Not the flashiest target, but a decent potential move as long as he's not your headliner. But that may very well be the case. Then we start to hear rumors that the Twins (backed by Molitor) are heavily pursuing Torii Hunter as yet another return candidate. After wasting roster spots on the Jasons Bartlett and Kubel last year just to watch them not make it more than 4 months cumulatively, now we are aggressively pursuing a 39 year old outfield who's defense has declined to the point where his metrics rank lower than Oswaldo Arcia. And why are we doing this? Because we want Torii to be a leader. That's right, we want Teflon Torii to be the leader and mentor for our talented young outfielders. And the cherry on top of it all, was waking up this morning to a report on MLBTradeRumors claiming the Twins were interested in soon to be 33 year old Wily Mo Pena. Pena's spent the last three years playing in the Japan, and has showed some of the prodigous power (evidenced HERE) that made him an interesting prospect in his youth, but weighing in at 260, he profiles mostly as a 1B (Occupied by Mauer), DH (Occupied by Vargas), or corner outfield. Is Willy Mo Pena the answer to this team's defensive ineptitude in the OF? Does Terry Ryan actually believe that the Twins outfield defense isn't that bad because they "catch what they get to"? Does Willy Mo fit into this same description? I understand the need to be patient with a farm system, not wanting to block players, and maintaining payroll flexibility so that you can sign young talent to lucrative extensions. But no farm system does it alone, and by their own admission, the organization isn't using their allotted budget. At what point does this team make a significant investment in order to supplement and ease the transition of the young talent? At what point do we start valuing defense? At what point do they stop leaving money on the table? It's early in the off-season (as evidenced by the fact that as I wrote this article, news broke that the Twins won the bid on Hyeong Jong Yang), and this may all be moot in a couple weeks anyway. But the early indications as to who the organization is targeting, particularly when it comes to positional players, are unsettling to say the least

They would have to go through waivers of they were removed anyway

In a debate about the Rule 5 Draft with someone about the Twins not leaving a spot open. I know that protected players has to be declared, but is it a full roster freeze? Can the Twins still remove people from the 40 man to be eligible to draft someone?

Again....I never made an argument for the validity of the stat, only it's placement in comparison to other currently available stats. If you're looking for me to tell you, "Wow, you sure are right about dWAR," don't hold your breath. If you want to sit here and rail against the statistic because one component of it is lacking due to poor data availability, then be my guest.

Let's talk about derailing a conversation and strawmen. At any point did I make a statement about the quality of WAR as a statistic that wasn't comparative? I never said WAR was a great statistic. I even said it was flawed, particularly the fielding aspect of it (I don't see much debate on oWAR). StatCast is going to play a huge role in developing fielding statistics once it comes out and will make dWAR's current iterations obsolete. But until we have access to better data, there's just not a lot to do about defensive statistics. What I did say is that there isn't currently a better statistic out there. At the end of the day, WAR is nothing more than a descriptive statistic. It's not meant to make predictions, it's meant to evaluate how a player performed in a given season. It is the best statistic we have right now at doing so, but anyone who lauds WAR to be anything more (or rails against it for not doing more) is using it incorrectly.

So I'm going to basically sum up the argument against WAR from the first page without having read the second page. People use WAR poorly and it isn't, therefore we shouldn't put much weight into it. Just because people ignore speed limits and some roads are inaccurately limited (speed too high or low) doesn't mean we shouldn't use speed limits. It means we need to continue to develop our guidelines for how we designate proper speed limits, and then make sure people are using them correctly. No one will make the argument right now that WAR, particularly the defensive aspect of it, is perfected. And if you think people are using the statistic incorrectly, than work to educate them on the statistic. It's far and away the best statistic out there, but like every other statistic, shouldn't be used on its own. Someone said there are better offensive statistics, and I'd love to hear what they are. The eye test does not count. It is almost impossible for one person to watch every player at one position in every game and accurately quantify their performances, let alone all 10 positions (including DH).

You celebrate ecstatically and trade away who you can part with to help keep your farm system strong. The organization has money to spend, and this is one area where their major hang up with big contracts may not be an issue. More often than not, it seems to be years over AAV that is the issue in signing guys. Being only 24, there is a lot greater chance of signing a long term contract in which he is still productive toward the end of it. If they decide to spend their money elsewhere, so be it. But at this point, I think they have enough pieces up and enough close to being up that they should be investing into free agency. Up to this point, I can understand holding back and making sure you keep your payroll flexible. But I think we've reached a critical juncture where you start finding the pieces to supplement your farm

And it's not like Fenway is a pitcher's haven either.

I would consider dealing Sano in a Walker trade......that's about the only prospect I would say that for

Perhaps because, from reports, it appears Pohlad was pushing for Molitor

This is incredible. Thanks Parker. As for having plans that night, I think that joke went over my head

This may be a long shot, but is there anyway a text transcript of this could be made available? I'd love to link quotes, and a text version would be great

Add in that he's improved the last two seasons, and in the minors, has shown the ability to hit for average, so there's reason to believe he still has room to grow

There's a lot of concern about how committed the Pohlad's are to providing a good on-field product. Like you said, every team puts profits as the top priority. I also think that every owner will go out and spend and even take a loss on a single year or two if they can build their brand strength (going deep in the playoffs or even winning a WS) because it will result in a stronger fan base and more profits down the road. I think this is probably the case with the Pohlad's too, but the last time we were in a position to really compete, they were also pushing for a new stadium, and perhaps didn't make the extra moves needed as a way of making the statement "this is why we need a new stadium." Or maybe it was just about not letting the payroll keep going up. If I recall correctly, in 06 and 07 their payroll was pretty high compared to the 50-52% benchmark that they typically set. That all being said, the next 3-5 years are going to be very telling about whether Terry Ryan is/was constrained by a penny pinching owner, or if it was Ryan's conservative nature that kept things contained

Something that people need to realize about Mauer.....his 162 game average over his career for home runs is 14 home runs per 162 games. If you take out his 28 home run season, he drops to 11 per 162. Anyone who's asking Mauer to hit for 20+ home runs a season in Target Field, that's a long wait for a train don't come. But 12-16 is not an unrealistic number, and if that's mixed in with 35-40 doubles (career 39 doubles per 162 games), that is more than enough power from even a number 3 batter if he's hitting .300. I don' think any of these numbers are a stretch

There's a very real argument to be made that Terry Ryan has had very little opportunity to ever be a spender. The Metrodome financial situation made big spending just not a reality. And when he took over after 2011, this organization was already in a bad place, and in need of a rebuild. I would have liked to see more spending through the 2012 and 2013, but I think there are some difficulties in attracting quality free agents that earn big money when they're coming to a team that's rebuilding.

Hardy, mostly. Garza and Bartlett found success elsewhere, Ortiz was a guy we traded for then blossomed elsewhere, Worley is finding success in Pittsburgh, as is Liriano. This is a smattering across the years and the most recent ones aren't blockbusters, but if they pitched as they are now for us, they would be significant improvements. The Gomez > Hardy > Hoey/Jacobson fiasco is really the heart of that comment though

So a general response that keeps coming up is that "Don't spend just for the sake of spending." I get that, but it's not at all what I'm advocating. The way the organization's contracts are set up, they have a ton of flexibility right now. I think it's going to be tough to get a Scherzer or Lester here, but the team has the financial flexibility not only now, but 3-4 years down the road as well, to do so. Although it's not the direction I would go, maybe it's aggressively pursuing Yasmani Tomas. The point is, the organization has come out saying that they have left money on the table in the past. If they continue to do that, it only furthers the fans view that they aren't interested in putting a winning product on the field; a sentiment I don't agree with, but one that will hurt their ticket sales, which in turn hurts revenues, which hurts your ability to put up a competitive payroll and to attract quality free agents. Just because you pay Max Scherzer 150-200 million, doesn't mean he may not turn out to be an efficient use of money. If he anchors the top of your rotation for 3-5 years and then transitions to a solid 2-3 guy toward the end, he can still be a very good investment

Fair enough. I flew off the handle a bit there. Son got immunizations today and it's been rough, and I definitely took it the wrong way. My bad

Birdwatcher: Wow....that is extremely condescending. For you to sit here and label me a casual fan when you know absolutely nothing about me is just hilarious. I've been a firm backer of the rebuild this team has undergone. I've watched the organization moves knowing that they just weren't in a position to compete, and backed most of their decisions. I've staunchly defended it over and over and over again because I do follow the minors very closely, and have been able to see the what they're building, and I'm very excited about it. But I also look at the situation the organization is in beyond the minor leagues. They have been WAY under budget in payroll, and that's particularly important to note when this year Dave St. Peter was on record saying they attempted to add even more to the payroll to meet the budget that they themselves have set. I'm not advising the organization to make an all-in move to win now or go home. I'm not saying sell the prospects because I need to see this team win now. I'm advising the organization to use it's resources, like it has admitted to failing to do so, and make a move to supplement everything else they're doing. Not taking advantage of the large amount of unallocated payroll just because their farm system has been performing well is cutting off your nose to spite your face, and it's exactly the type of "self satisfaction" that Jim Pohlad believes haunted the organization in the late 00s and led to the down turn in the early 10s. But instead, you take the opportunity to gaze down pretentiously on the people you think who just don't get it like you do, rather than reading the actual letter. You take the words written and fit it to your own little "Other fans are just too stupid to realize the truths that I see" narrative to make yourself feel smarter than everybody else.

Gil4, this got too long to quote your message, but this is in response to you. First off, let me start off by saying Buxton is basically off the table. If the right package for Sano came up....it would have to be quite a package though. I'm not advocating spending for the sake of spending, I just think the organization is in an advantageous position to go out and seriously pursue a top end starter. Who's looking to get huge arbitration raises or extension in the next 3-5 years. Buxton and Sano won't be up until AT LEAST half way through 2015, which means they'll likely miss super 2 cut offs, meaning they're arbitration eligible after 2018. Plouffe if he keeps progressing, but with Sano looking at 3rd base, he may become expendable anyway. Dozier, possibly. HR numbers always play well in arbitration, but he's still one year from even starting arbitration. Santana won't qualify until after 2016 and Vargas not until after 2017. Eduardo Escobar hit super 2 this year, and Arcia will likely hit super 2 after next year. As for whether we're there right now, see my above post that mentioned the Dave Cameron Podcast. There is not as far away as it used to be But none of these guys stand to make monster numbers in arbitration unless they make big steps forward (Santana is interesting, because the general thought is that he way outperformed himself this year, so we'll see where he settles). But if 2-3 of these guys see the progress that would facilitate big arbitration numbers, then this team's offense is going to be world series caliber and a big investment in a starting pitcher would probably pay off in the form of playoff appearances. And on top of that, most of these guys do have highly touted prospects behind them which could open up avenues for trading MLB talent to restock the farm and keep payroll reasonable while you reload internally and not see much of a dip in performance. And don't forget, that as Buxton and Sano come into arbitration after 2018, Mauer's 23 million comes off the books. So to answer the question of who I would go after, I would absolutely be offering Scherzer/Lester 200 million, and possibly even 100million over 5 years to Shields. This team has a lot of young and affordable talent already up here, and the means of reloading down the road if they get too expensive. I don't think they have to look to move prospects in a Shields-esque trade, because we have the payroll flexibility coupled with a nice free agent pool that they should be able to find a fit without parting with a prospect. As for whether we're "there" yet, take a look at my comment above about the DAve Cameron post. "There" is not as far away as it used to be

I think Minnesota has a more veteran core (Plouffe, Mauer, Hughes) with enough young talent (Arcia, Santana, Vargas, Escobar, Gibson, Dozier) already here, and some poised to come through in 2015(Meyer, May, possibly Rosario after a hot fall in Arizona) with the Pièce de résistance being Buxton and Sano full time in 2016 likely. The beautiful thing about the Twins situation, is that they have waves of guys that will be moving through. Dave Cameron had was on a podcast on Fangraphs, talking about how the second wild card makes mediocrity more beneficial. With that extra team getting in each year, and basically being a coin flip from the actual playoffs, it means that you don't have to plan your team to be around 93-95 wins to ensure a playoff spot. 88-92 is very reasonable playoff contention now, and it starts to eliminate the need for that "timing" of bringing all the prospects up at once.