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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    But even on their most likely set of outcomes, they're pretty bad. You might be able to put together a better 1-5 in the AL Central (or any other division you paid attention to) than PECOTA has the last five years. Fans are putting way too much faith into PECOTA (and frankly, any projection system) and acting as if it means a team's FO is doing smart or dumb things. (Not just at TD). Projection systems are so inherently flawed as that their relevance should be called into question. And when someone like Gleeman tries to make PECOTA seem accurate, when he clearly knows better, well, that just pisses me off.
  2. gunnarthor
    PECOTA isn't that good at projecting final placement within the division either, by the way.
  3. gunnarthor
    Yeah, over a few years, it'll be ok. But in any one year, it's more likely to be 6 games off. That's why Gleeman did the 6 seasons instead of the 6 individual seasons. Gleeman is using the fact that PECOTA has been wrong in both directions to obscure the fact of how wrong it usually has been. He's trying to defend PECOTA. But their projections were off, on average, 10 games for the Twins (and if you look at all teams, it's around 6). 2010 - projected 82 wins - off by 12 2011 - projected 83 wins - off by 20 2012 - projected 71 wins - off by 5 2013 - projected 66 wins - perfect 2014 - projected 71 wins - off by 1 2015 - projected 82 wins - off by 12 So they were pretty good at saying the Twins would suck in 2013 and 2014 (big gamble there), were in the ball park in 2012 and no where close in 2010, 2011 and 2015.
  4. gunnarthor
    Well sure, this is just back of the napkin stuff but generally, I think our lineup is better and deeper than theirs - substantially so, actually. I like their front of the rotation more. Bullpens could go either way. But I think we're past a point where we can say they have the better roster "on paper." I just don't think they do.
  5. gunnarthor
    I think last year around this time we added up a bunch of PECOTA predictions from several years and found that they were off by an average of 6 games per team.
  6. gunnarthor
    I'm not sure that's even true, though. I think the Twins have the advantage at most positions now. Although some of that is based on projection since we don't know how some of our young guys will do this year. But I'd rather have Park at DH than LaRoche. I like Dozier and Plouffe over Lawrie and Frazier. Escobar over Saldino. I like our OF of Rosario/Buxton/Sano a lot more than their OF. They have an advantage at first base but even catcher might be a draw. They certainly have a better front of the rotation.
  7. gunnarthor
    I'm surprised he's that high on Gonsalves. Good.
  8. gunnarthor
    Interesting. Did he have any thoughts on Cabbage and Thorpe?
  9. gunnarthor
    I will say that Jose Quintana might be the most underrated good pitcher in baseball. Something about soft tossing 90 mph lefties gets people to underrate them. But he's really good.
  10. gunnarthor
    Sale's good and Rodon will be good but ... man, that's a tough roster to get excited about. I would think they are more likely to win 71 than 90. I wouldn't be surprised if they looked at moving Abreu at some point this season.
  11. gunnarthor
    My guess on how this plays out - in three months, the GOP will have a better idea of the general election match-up. If they have a match-up they like, say Kasich v. Sanders, they simply won't let Obama pick the next Court member. If it's a match--up they don't like or eventually know they'll lose, they'll float something to Obama that they'll approve a moderate - not liberal - justice under him. Unless Obama wanted to give Clinton the honor of picking the justice - pretty unlikely - he'd probably do that.
  12. gunnarthor
    Well, I'm a non-profit lawyer so I rarely enjoyed his decisions but I won't quite jump for glee that he's dead. But I think this fight over his replacement will be really intense. No way does the GOP majority want Obama to put a liberal in his seat and they could pass on every nominee he brings them. It'll be fun/interesting to watch.
  13. gunnarthor
    Some narratives survive despite facts.
  14. gunnarthor
    That's a bit of twisted logic. The Mets didn't have to pay his salary or suffer any punishment at all. They were able to put another person on the roster to replace him, didn't lose payroll or a draft pick. The Mitchell Report - which the league adopted - said that everyone, players and teams, were to blame for the PED crisis yet only players get punished. In the ARod situation, the team was actively rooting for him to be busted so they wouldn't have to continue to honor the contract they signed with him, knowing full well he was roiding when they signed him. The players agreed to this procedure so it's on them but it isn't fair - the players get all the risk while teams suffer no risk and can get (potentially) significant benefits.
  15. gunnarthor
    I'm not sure it's even that simple. It wasn't like he was blind - the ball was blurry sometimes, not all the time. He probably thought he was ok and if he did tell the team, it was probably more along the lines of "yeah, I'm good to go."
  16. gunnarthor
    The thing that bugs me about this is that the team isn't punished - only the players. The Mitchell report said PED use was a league wide problem - players and owners - yet only players get hosed. I hate PED use but Mejia grew up in a dirt poor region of the world and this was his way out - and a way to help his family. Now the Mets will just look for the next Mejia and hope he's better at getting around the testing procedures.
  17. gunnarthor
    Interestingly, the Twins are only ranked 10th in their minor league systems ranking. http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/organization-talent-rankings-list/ Maybe they don't have Kepler and Park in the top 50? I think it'd be strange for a team with 6 or 7 top 100 guys not to be better than #10. Heck, even with 5, it's hard to think there would be 9 systems ahead of the Twins.
  18. gunnarthor
    Well, I really hope he's completely healthy. If he can come back to hit like he did a few years ago, that would be a huge help for us. Plus, it would be nice if he could have a healthy life after baseball.
  19. gunnarthor
    Sounds like we'll have 6 or 7 (depending on Park). I assume the top 50 would have Buxton and Berrios and probably Kepler.
  20. gunnarthor
    http://www.startribune.com/as-always-twins-prospect-walker-looking-to-connect/368566581/ Article is a fun read, his mother might be the best athlete in the family. I don't know if Walker will make it but I really, really hope he does. Fun little quote: "Allen was the hitting coach for Scottsdale in the Arizona Fall League last year, a team with Walker and six other Twins prospects that won the AFL championship. “Adam hit one in a game at our park … there’s a berm that has to be 50 yards behind the left field fence, and he hit it over the berm,” Allen said. “One of our coaches who had been in baseball a long time said, ‘Chad, that might be the farthest ball I’ve ever seen hit.’ “Obviously, with those strikeout numbers, Adam’s still in the process. But if he continues to learn what a pitcher is trying to do to him, and stays aggressive in the zone where ‘he’ likes the ball … “I’m telling you, raw power, the only guy I ever saw who hits ’em where Adam hits it when he gets one was Mark McGwire.”"
  21. gunnarthor
    http://mlb.mlb.com/fan_forum/podcasts/index.jsp?c_id=mlb&podcast=mlb_pipeline
  22. gunnarthor
    I think it's time for an answer.
  23. gunnarthor
    What do others think of LaMonte Wade? I don't know much about him, is his ceiling a solid defensive 4th OF type?
  24. gunnarthor
    I have to agree that Ryan Eades has been an incredibly disappointing pick for us - and he was a Boras client at that. I remember thinking at the time that if we drafting a Boras guy, we must be pretty certain that he'd be good.
  25. gunnarthor
    He's too short.
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