Not exactly an answer, but here's part of it...I found some of what I was looking for the other day: what's the magic number in MLB?
It's 5. Score 5, and you win more than lose. Score 4, and you lose more than win. Obviously, scoring less than 4 gives you an even worse record.
This data is 2023, but it holds up
https://stathead.com/baseball/inning_summary.cgi?request=1