USAFChief
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Everything posted by USAFChief
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I would say wins and RBI are fine as measures of what happened. I see no reason to discard either. They should not be used in isolation, and one should keep in mind they are at least partially dependent on the efforts of other players.
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And much younger. Which also shouldn't enter into the MVP debate.
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I doubt that, Bri. It's the hair.
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Beating Vegas: The New York Yankees
USAFChief replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
FWIW, they are projected to have the third best team defense in baseball. So perhaps we should take the over. http://twinsdaily.com/topic/17273-article-a-preview-of-2015-mlb-team-defenses/ -
Agree or disagree with the points, Pos is a hell of a writer. "I'm park adjusted." Man, I wish I could write like that.
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But this is all supposed to relate to runs, right? And there have been numerous posts in this very thread speculating that the reason, say, Franklin Gutierrez can go from average to spectacular and back again is because of those hard to make plays. 50 one year, 25 the next, etc. I believe you might have even agreed with that. So I'm confused. Although I agree on Span!
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Right, and he was credited with making 97.6% of those 206 chances, or 201. That's 5 plays. Five outs, compared to the leader, Markakis, over the course of a season. Two or three fewer outs than the RFers in the middle of that category. He was rated as average or above average on the other 40 combined, right? So we'll be conservative and give him one out back. That leaves us we a delta of between 4 and 1 outs.
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That list defaults to the last category, the 90-100% list. In which case, Hunter's 97.6% is indeed last of 16, and would be a difference of something like 5 or 6 catches from Nick Markakis' 100%. Maybe 3 catches from being middle of the pack. But if you click on the other categories, Hunter ranges from 5th to 9th. Average to above average everywhere else. He would have an extra catch or so and make up the difference. In total, that seems to indicate to me, average.
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Perhaps I'm mistaken...got a link?
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If we choose Inside Edge Fielding as our metric du jour, Hunter is just fine. Maybe even slightly above average in 2014.
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Solidly in a tie for 14th currently. I do have the most possible points remaining though, so I got that going for me. Which is nice.
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And therein lies the crux of our discussion. You and many others take your statement as factual. You might very well be proven correct. To me, your statement requires a leap of faith that I'm not ready to make yet. I don't trust the data collection, and I don't fully agree with the design of the measurement systems. I'm troubled by the fact there are multiple measurement systems out there, and they often don't agree. I believe there is more to defense than just range. I doubt the impact on runs from a corner outfielder is as large as a middle infielder at the major league level. And that's fine. We'll both enjoy watching the coming baseball season, and if we end up at a game together I'll buy the first beer*, where we can argue some more in person. *EDIT: and maybe even a hot dog. But no GD sushi. That doesn't belong at a ballpark...can we at least agree on that?
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Like!
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Test.
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Honest question, because I don't know the answer: Lets say Arcia gets 250 lazy fly balls hit to him in left this year, and every one is hit right to him. He hardly has to move all year, and catches all 250. What would his UZR be?
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Because we can be absolutely positive it's not the measurement system?
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I would, in fact, cite this as a "preconceived notion." The statement is not a "fact." It is the opinion of the author. How does he know this to be factual? He only knows that the measurement system he designed, or advocates, sometimes shows wild fluctuations. It seems to me the default answer for those fluctuations shouldn't be "it can't be the way we're measuring, so defensive performance must vary like offensive performance."
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I think it might be fair to say all sides of this discussion have some preconceived notions about defensive metrics.
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That doesn't sound correct to me. For example, a player with 10 and 5 rights cannot be traded, including through a DFA, so I would assume if there's still a rule preventing trading a newly signed FA, that would also prevent a trade through a DFA. I would assume a player can waive that rule if he chooses, though.
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Fair enough. I will wait for something I trust.
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What IS UZR trying to do? By all means, please include all the detailed math you feel necessary. I think it's fair for me to examine the math, though, and if I think it doesn't add up, to ask for clarification. For example, if you try to convince me that there's nothing odd about numbers that appear odd at first blush, I will examine the use of hypotheticals to explain those odd numbers. Particularly when they are not only hypotheticals, but hypotheticals based on numbers that are themselves at best questionable, at worst complete exaggeration s used to make a point seem stronger.
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Is there still a rule preventing teams from trading FA signees until sometime in June? I know there used to be, not sure if there still is.
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Not if they turn two on the grounder to second.
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I don't think it was one error, but whatever. It seems at odds with the whole "it's science' argument to argue "don't let the math cloud the issue," no? "Maybe this" or "possibly that" are at odds with the entire premise of saber metrics.
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I agree judging defense is difficult for fans. Perhaps too difficult. I think it is much less difficult for team officials--managers, GMs, even players--who spend a great deal of time around the game and probably have a pretty good idea of what good defense looks like. I also don't take on faith that UZR is "the best option currently available." Maybe it is, but how would we know that? Compared to what? Even if I grant that UZR is the best option available, then what? What does that tell us? What should it be used for? If I knew that 20 MLB teams were using UZR to make playing time decisions, I'd take it more seriously.
