Mill1634

The Minnesota Twins find themselves doubled up in the loss column at the time of this post, at 13-26, and the biggest controversy is whether Yermin Mercedes should be able to swing 3-0 against Willians Astudillo. If that doesn't tell you how this season has gone, I'm not sure what will. I've already wrote about players that we could see traded, as well as ranked all the Twins MLB roster by trade value. I expect many of those moves to be made in July, although some could roll in earlier, especially with all of the injuries around Major League Baseball. When all of these expected moves come around, the Twins are going to have to fill these holes with players from the minor leagues, or possibly by players coming in from the trades. This series will take a look at the players the Twins front office will want to take a longer look at come late July, August, and September in order to put themselves in a position to succeed in 2022. RHP Randy Dobnak Dobnak came into the Twins organization as a feel good story, and even started a playoff game for the Twins. He also signed a 5 year extension this past offseason, which locked in financial security for the former Uber driver, and gave the Twins a cheap depth option for the foreseeable future. However, there is questions around Twins territory on whether Dobnak is an MLB starter, or more of a long man. With expected trades of JA Happ and Michael Pineda, and the likely DFA or move to the bullpen for Matt Shoemaker, the Twins will have plenty of chances to evaluate some of the AAA starters. Dobnak should, and likely will be, the first option to fill the hole. Dobnak relies on pinpoint control over his sinker, and a very good slider to pair with the sinker. In order to be an effective MLB starter, Dobnak will have to develop a reliable third pitch, with the changeup being the most likely. Even if Dobnak isn't a long term starter, he will be on the opening day roster in 2022. LHP Lewis Thorpe Lewis Thorpe is a former top prospect out of Australia, but certainly hasn't met those expectations thus far. The key to Thorpe being a useful arm in the major leagues all rely on his fastball velocity. Last season we saw Thorpe's velocity fall below 90, which was not the norm for him, and unsurprisingly, he got shelled. However, there were signs of hope for the southpaw during spring training, where he said he "refocused mentally and physically" and the results backed it up. Thorpe was sitting in the low 90's during spring training, but that has suddenly disappeared. During Thorpe's two spot starts thus far, he's once again sitting 89.7 MPH on the fastball, and shared that he's going through a dead arm phase. If Thorpe snaps out of his dead arm, and regains his velo, he has a chance at a starter to pair with his very good slider. However, if the fastball velo is only sustainable in short stints, a move to the pen seems inevitable. We'll get an answer on this question during the dog days of the 2021 summer. RHP Bailey Ober As I'm writing this article, Bailey Ober is pitching the first inning of his MLB debut. Ober is a big, right handed arm who stands at 6 feet 9 inches, but doesn't have the velo that matches the body. The Twins drafted Ober in the 12th round in 2017, which is the same draft where Royce Lewis was the #1 pick. The fact that Ober has already made his MLB debut, despite being a 12th round pick, means he's outperformed expectations. Bailey was added to the 40 man roster this past offseason, despite not throwing in a live game since 2019. Ober has four quality pitches, with the fastball sitting in the upper 80's, and the lower 90's on occasion. His best putaway pitch is a changeup, which moves with a lot of armside run. He also features a slider and curveball, but neither project as anything more than an average pitch. Despite the fastball not cracking 90, it has a lot of carry on it which allows him to successfully pitch in the upper part of the zone. With the next wave of top arms coming to Target Field soon in Johan Duran and Jordan Balazovic, Ober will have to perform well to stay apart of Minnesota's long term plans, as he is a starter or bust.

This one was clearly over in the top of the first. What an epic, epic disaster of a game, and a good look into the season. At least that one hurt the run differential so the twins fans/writers hanging onto the “unlucky twins” won’t have it in their favor. This team is absolutely horrible. The lineup has 2 really good hitters (Donaldson, Buxton when healthy) a good hitter (Cruz), and nothing after that. I think AK probably falls into a good hitter as well, but it’s still early and he’s hurt. Arraez is good as well, but not a game changing type of player. Polanco, garver, Kepler, and sano are an up and down roller coaster you expect out of rookie and 2nd year players, The pitching is absolutely horrible, and the depth that many thought they found off the waiver wire of MILB deals are all bad. Not shocking, considering they were available there for a reason, but for some reason we thought everyone was the next Matt Wisler (who is also bad now). It turns out at the end of the day, you get what you paid for, and right now we’re seeing the results of paying for mediocre talent and trying to turn them into average talent

It does not matter who “initiates” the contact if the contact comes within the basepaths, unless you’re diving at a guy or something like that, which he didn’t. It’s on the fielder to get out of the basepaths, hence the name. Rortvedt didn’t do that. A veteran played a rookie like a fiddle. If you’re caught in a rundown, go find contact. High school coaches teach that, not because it’s cheap, because it works if the opponent allows it to. Like I said above, even if he doesn’t reach out, there shoulders are still making contact. Still interference however you want to spin it. take it from a guy a lot smarter than me if you must.

A bit of confusion by a few posters..Andrus most definitely flopped, yes. I don’t think anyone, even him, will argue that. However, it doesn’t matter if the runner falls over or not. Rortvedt doesn’t have the ball anymore, and is still in the basepaths. If any contact is made within the basepaths, obstruction or interference will be called on the defensive player. If he doesn’t fall over, it’s likely delayed obstruction and the play continues to play out, and if he’s tagged, he’s later granted home and a run anyhow. The flop didn’t look good, and certainly caused some confusion, but it doesn’t matter at all in the call. If he doesn’t stick his arm out, he’s still bumping shoulders with Rortvedt, which therefore leads to obstruction. This coming from a (high school) umpire.

The twins have had plenty of poor relief appearances this year, including some out of Duffey. Today was NOT one of those out of Tyler. He came in with the bases loaded and 0 outs. The hardest thing possible for a reliever. He gave up a ground ball that didn’t get to the dirt, a ground ball hit at the 3rd basemen that was then botched by the catcher, who you somehow are still being apologetic over, Andrus did the exact thing every base runner should do and got the call because that is the call in that situation. He flopped, sure, but even if he doesn’t and just runs into him, it’s still the cal. The flop had nothing to do with the enforcement of the rule, and got a lazy fly ball that would’ve been the third out of the inning. Outside of striking out the side, Duffey pitcher that inning to perfection. Being upset at the reliever seems like you’re just doing so because they’ve been bad basically all year, which is fine, but the 5th inning had less than <5% of blame on Tyler Duffey.

The flop was a stupid play messed up by the twins catcher. Sure it was a flop, but never should’ve even gotten to that point. Complaining about it is stupid. Complain about the catcher for not knowing what the hell he was doing. As for Duffey, he did his job PERFECTLY in that situation. Not sure how the two are equally unless you weren’t actually watching the game

And only one was his “fault” (and it wasn’t really, weak ground out) when he came in in literally the most difficult situation.

2 of the worst losses on the season against the A's, starting with the high scoring extra innings affair, and then today. Twins were in absolute control of the ball game, and then the young stud defensive catcher makes a play a middle school catcher would get pulled for. Absolutely and utterly inexcusable, and anyone who defends it or blames it on Andrus for "flopping" needs to get a reality check. It's not about the flop, but that your catcher looks lost under pressure. Get Jeffers up now and don't look back. And then Donaldson drops a tailor made double play in what would've been a no run inning. The at bats were fine, but Kenta and the defense were atrocious today. Another clear example of TSF 2.0.

Strongly, strongly disagree with these rankings. I’ve actually put together my own rankings in the blog section, ranking the top 20 Twins. Arraez is not even a top 3 player in terms of value. He doesn’t have a defensive position (that he’s good at), which makes him a DH with no power. He’s much more valuable on the twins than any trade will return. The rest of the list is fine, but buxton should be higher. He’s hurt, but an MVP candidate when healthy. And that’s backed up by real numbers, not just some rhetoric I’ve made up. I also think Rogers and Cruz are more valuable than Polo, unless he stays hot on this little streak he’s on, which is certainly possible. It is worth noting that the advanced defensive metrics aren’t fans of his at 2nd base.

Garver has an OPS+ of 105, so better than league average. I think he’s hitting fine with room to grow. Sano has obviously been horrible. I agree on Donaldson as I’ve previously stated. I think twins fans undervalue Simmons on the market, but that’s just a personal opinion. There’s a good chance we’ll find out. I strongly disagree that berrios and buxton are behind those three you listed at the top of your message. Buxton has been a top 5 hitter in all of baseball this year and would get a HUGE return. Polanco would get a good return if he stays hitting the way he has the past 15 games, but clubs will want a bigger sample. Berrios easily has more value than Rogers, and it’s not even close. Jose is a top 40 starter and young to be on the trade market. Relievers just aren’t worth that much prospect wise unless you’re a Josh hader or Aroldis Chapman. Rogers is very good, but he isn’t that. As for Arraez, he wasn’t featured in this series as I see absolutely no avenue where he is traded. He I were to rank him, I think I would have him ranked 4th behind Kenta. He’s a very good hitter with a unique skillset in today’s game, but he doesn’t really have a defensive position (he’s bad at 2nd and bad in the OF), and doesn’t have the power most teams want out of a DH. I personally think the value of having Arraez on the team would outweigh whatever you were to get back for him.

This is a good point and something that could surely happen. I just don’t think the front office is ready to tear down and give up on this year yet, which was stated in an article on the Athletic by Aaron Gleeman a few days ago. I doubt it changed this quickly, but if the Yankees blow your socks off with an offer, I think you have to take it. Just for fun, a few players I could see potentially headlining a deal are Luis Medina, Austin Wells, or Luis Gil (former Twin sent in the Jake Cave deal)

His defense hasn’t been the gold glove caliber that we’ve seen in the past, no, but it’s still above major league average. He also has the reputation for being a very good defender which definitely holds weight around the league. Personally, out of all the expiring deals (Happ, Pineda, Simmons, Cruz, Robles, Colome), I think the best prospect return you see is for Simmons. Big Mike could fetch a better return, but right now I lean Simmons on that group of players.

Another lifeless outing. All in all, I don’t think shoemaker pitched horribly, but he left too many pitches over the zone and the A’s crushed them. How the A’s won today is how the twins beat teams in 2019. Sure stinks to be on the other side of it. Another loss, another day of me questioning when some heat will come on the front office/Rocco/wes Johnson and the hitting coaches. This has been a total system failure. Even worse than 1.0 TSF. If there wasn’t any doubt about it before, it’s gone now. This team is DEAD. Call up Nick Gordon, Dakota Chalmers, Lewis Thorpe, and Dobnak to see what they have so we can make informed decisions on the 2022 roster. Throwing out Derek law, Kyle Garlick (he’s been good, but likely isn’t on the 2022 roster), shoemaker, and Caleb Thielbar do nothing. It’s time for the front office to shift their focus from “winning” to “talent identification, and the sooner the better

Good read. I wasn’t a huge fan of the trade at the time, but I think this is a case where both teams come out as “winners”. Pressly has been good for the Astros, and Alcala is a decent MR with room to grow forward. Celestino is a wild card here, and at the floor is a 4th OF.

Anytning is possible, but with each passing day (and loss) it gets less and less likely. Eventually you have to shift your focus and expectations onto the future, and I think we’re nearly, if not already, to that point. I think Robles will be traded. Same with Pineda. There’s nothing stopping you from trading them and then resigning them if there’s truly interest in bringing them back.

60 day DL

I disagree on Simmons not being overly valuable. He’s not going to get a top 5 prospect from a good system, but he’s going to get a top 10 prospect or two. He doesn’t hit a ton, but like I said he doesn’t have to to have a winning impact on a team. That’s more valuable than most fans realize, I think. After what you and Brock have said on Cruz, I think it may be likely to see him traded, but I seriously doubt it’s to an NL team. There aren’t many NL teams rostering a man who’s hasn’t played in the field in years. I just don’t see it. I could see it to an AL team like I said, but I still lean no.

Today I wrap up the final piece in my mini-blog series where I ranked the Minnesota Twins roster by trade value, as this season has gone downhill quickly. Things haven't gotten any better, as they've just been swept by the division leading White Sox, and now find themselves down 10 games of ChiSox just 35 games into the 2021 campaign. If things continue to travel down this road, which it seems like they will, the Twins may have the most talent of any seller come July. In part 1, I took a look at players who have regressed or have massive contracts. Part 2 featured some names that carried the Twins in 2019, as well as a few players who will see their contract expire after this season. Today, we take a look at the final 6 players in the ranking. 6. RH DH Nelson Cruz If I was simply ranking the talent on the Minnesota Twins, there is no doubt that Nelson Cruz would be in the top 3, but that isn't what these rankings are. Nelson Cruz is without a doubt one of the top hitters in the MLB, despite being nearly 40 years old. However, he plays at a non-premium position, and there aren't many teams that are in need of a DH. Going through the list of the contenders, you have the Houston Astros who have Yordan Alverez. Cross them off. The White Sox have rookie of the year contender Yermin Mercedes. I don't see it. The New York Yankees have Stanton, the Red Sox have JD Martinez, and the Blue Jays have Rowdy Tellez and a handful of outfielders who can fill in at DH when George Springer is healthy. That leaves me with two teams: Oakland and Tampa Bay. Neither of these teams are known to be big spenders, and I'm not real confident that they'd have DH as their top need come July. I think the most likely scenario sees Nelson Cruz staying put in Minnesota, and reevaluating his options in the off-season, when the NL is likely to add the DH Prediction: Not Moved 5. LH RP Taylor Rogers Taylor Rogers has been one of the best relievers over the past 4 seasons, despite his struggles in 2020, the advanced metrics still love Taylor Rogers. I agree with these numbers. Like any reliever, Rogers is violate and certainly prone to going through a rough stretch, but there aren't many who are prone to this. If the Twins decided to move Rogers, I think he would be the best reliever moved mid-season. Rogers is due for his 4th and final year of arbitration in 2022, and then becomes a free agent in 2023. If the Twins decide that they are simply retooling, I think Rogers sticks around. However, if they decide to commit to a rebuild, I think Rogers is certainly moved. However, I'm hesitant to saying the front office will, or should, commit to a rebuild. This is especially true on May 14th. With an already bad bullpen, trading Rogers would make 2022s bullpen abysmal. Prediction: Not Moved 4. RH SS Andrelton Simmons Andrelton Simmons was brought in on a one year contract to improve the Minnesota Twins infield defense, and he has certainly succeed at that. Simmons has been credited with saving 2 runs in 200 innings at SS, which puts him on pace to finish the year with between 10-12. We know Simmons isn't a great hitter, but he doesn't need to be to have a positive impact on a game. Much like Byron Buxton of the past, who won games despite struggling mightily at the plate, Simmons is the best of the best at his position, and teams know that. Simmons contract is set to expire at the end of the season, and that makes him attractive to a potential buyer. The Twins could negotiate an extension, but I'm not sure I see that, especially with a loaded free agent class at the position. I'm almost certain that Simba will be moved before the July 30th trade deadline. Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers Potential Prospects: RH OF Tristen Lutz (3, AA), LHP Aaron Ashby (5, AAA), RH SS Eduardo Garcia (8, R) 3. RH SP Kenta Maeda Kenta Maeda was one of the best starting pitchers in all of the MVP in the 60 game season, and looked like an absolute steal after being brought over for Brusadar Graterol in the 3-team trade which sent Mookie Betts to LA. However, Maeda has been roughed up in his first few starts in 2021, and doesn't look like the same pitcher we saw last season. The most notable difference between his great year last year, and the struggles this year is his control and command. We saw Maeda dissect lineups by throwing pitches exactly where the catcher was set up, and rarely leaving a hittable pitch over the plate. That has all turned on its head this year, and Kenta looks like the same version LA saw. Everyone knew regression was likely, but I don't think Kenta is this bad. Kenta is a top 3 arm on a playoff rotation, with potential to be higher. Kenta is signed for the next 2 years, but at only 3M per. This is a steal of a deal, and I see no reason for the Twins to sell low on King Kenta. Prediction: Not Moved 2. RH SP Jose Berrios Jose Berrios has been near the top of the Twins rotation for the past 3 years, and has been a top 50 starter every season. He hasn't taken the step from being TOR to an ace that many Twins fans hoped he would, but he's still very, very valuable. Berrios is set for his final year in arbitration following this season, which will likely see him making between 8-10 million. Again, this is a steal for the quality of pitcher Berrios is. We know the Twins have made an offer to extend Berrios contract in the past, but clearly that hasn't come to fruition. I suspect a Berrios extension to be somewhere in the ballpark of 100-110 million dollars over 4 years, which I would offer if I was the Twins. If an extension can't be worked out this offseason, and the Twins are in this same boat next year, it's likely Berrios would be moved at the deadline. However, I see no reason to sell on him now. Prediction: Not Moved 1. RH CF Byron Buxton The list rounds out with one of the most exciting players in baseball with Byron Buxton. We saw Byron take the MVP-level step forward through a month this season, but like years past, Buxton found himself on the injured list. I don't think you can fault Byron for being an often injured player, nor can you blame the Twins. It's simply part of the game. Some are prone, and some aren't. In a similar boat to Berrios, we know a contract extension has been offered to Buxton, but he felt it was too low. Sitting on top of baseball references leaderboard for WAR 35 games into the season, despite only playing in 24 games, certainly isn't going to make him any cheaper. I hesistate to speculate on what an extension for Buxton would look like, as he's likely a player who won't age well as he relies on both speed, and bat speed to be effective. He doesn't draw walks (nor should he, crushing pitches he can hit is better than trying to draw a walk), and he gets hurt a lot. I think the Twins would want an extension with multiple team options thrown in, and I'm not sure Buck would want that. However, it's a season too early to consider trading Byron. Prediction: Not Moved Recap Below I have listed the players that I expect to be traded, as well as who the logical replacement is the rest of the way in what appears to be a "figure out what we have for the future" type of year, rather than a contend for the World Series year. All in all, I expect 7 trades to be made, at least based on these rankings. However, I would be fairly shocked if the Twins traded 7 MLB players off their roster. If I was setting the over/under on such a thing, I would set it at 4.5. Andrelton Simmons - Brewers (Nick Gordon) Michael Pineda - Yankees (Randy Dobnak) Tyler Duffey - Phillies (Edwar Colina) Mitch Garver - Braves (Ryan Jeffers) J.A. Happ - Brewers (Lewis Thorpe) Hansel Robles - A's (Dakota Chalmers) Alex Colome - Giants (Yennier Cano) Note: All prospect rankings come from Fangraphs.

I’m about as low as Jake cave as anyone is, but I don’t get the Keon Broxton love from so many fans. He’s a far worse hitter than Cave is, and he’s clearly not a long term answer in the outfield. I’d much rather see whitefield, Celestino (he’s hurt and not ready, no need to rush him anyhow), or just sticking with cave. This seems to be a lost year, and bringing up a 30 year old with a below <.700 career OPS is not beneficial at all. also, Miguel sano is not able to be demoted. He’s out of options, and he’s over 5 years of service time, so even if he has options, he could refuse an assignment to the minors.

I agree that the white sox will get better in the next 2-3 years, but that doesn’t mean that the twins should just fold and call it a day. There is enough individual talent on this team, and prospects either already up, or on the brink that I think that they can retool and make something of a mix of current players, prospects they’ve developed, and players they target in trades or free agency. With the new CBA coming up, it is very likely that we some form of expanded playoffs that we saw last year, in which I would give the twins a very good chance at making in 2022. I do agree that they front office needs to change their mold of players they target and go for more electric arms like alcala in the bullpen, and diversify the lineup with a mixture of power and OBP guys. The good news it that AK is a great average hitter, and Larnach isn’t a boom or bust hitter like sano or garver. Lewis should be a 5 tool player as well. Add in Arraez and Polanco, and you have a more well rounded lineup than the bomba squad. I do think that an extension on berrios should be given, assuming it’s around 100-110 over 4 years. I’d sign that and not blink. Buxton I hesitate to give huge money to because of the injuries, and think they should consider a trade for young MLB ready talent. it will be interesting to see what type of player the twins draft in a few months, as we’ve seen them target power college hitters. I’d like to see them take a bit more of a toolsy player, but it’s clear they have their type.

Not entirely sure what you’re getting at, but I’m mainly speaking before the team breaks north outta ST. of course he isn’t saying, hey go sign alex colome, let Matt wisler go, etc. but he certainly does have a say on final roster construction and things like “hey, we might want to go sign another Tyler clippard part as I don’t think Stashak is the answer.” Things along those lines he has a say on. Not the final say, but a say nonetheless.

Tbf, the 2nd walk was a really bad call and most definitely a strike, and had a chance to be a strike em out throw em out, and instead resulted in none. Leaving in Pineda was the right call there, result or not. I had zero issue with how Rocco managed this game (which is a rarity for me in this young season). However, if you think Rocco is just “getting who he gets” you’re fooling yourself. Rocco doesn’t have the final say on players on the roster, but he certainly does get a say on it somewhat.

Time for some heat from writers/bloggers/beat reporters on the front office, Rocco, Wes Johnson, and the hitting coach. A team simply cannot regress this hard 35 games into the season with no heat on them. I don't think Rocco should be fired, nor should anyone in the front office, but I do think a change, especially on the hitting side of things, would be welcome. The Mets fired their beloved hitting coach after not getting the results they wanted. The Twins coaches should not be immune to this. I've said it the past few days, maybe even weeks, but this team simply isn't very good. Almost every single player outside of Buxton, Cruz, Donaldson, and Polanco as of late has regressed. Time for someone inside the organization to take some blame and accountability for things, and it starts with Rocco saying something other than "Yeah, these guys are really battling but aren't getting the results we want. It'll come around eventually." Show some fight. Please.

I'd be fairly shocked if either Berrios or Buxton are moved, unless the FO is fully committing to a full blown rebuild, which I seriously doubt with Larnach/AK/Lewis this close, or already in the major leagues, and Duran and Jordan not far behind.

The little sliver of hope that many of us were holding on to coming into this series is gone. Of course there is plenty of season left, but it’s clear the difference in these two rosters is significant, and that’s without Chicago having 2 of their best hitters. I would also say that the twins had the starting pitching advantage in game one, and tonight was a wash, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at the scores. At least colome has been decent as of late I suppose, get that trade value up above nothing. Congrats to Larnach on his first hit. At this point, I’m hoping the positive from this season is that AK, Larnach, and a few other prospects we haven’t seen yet give me reason to believe in next years squad.