scottz

I'm aware. He wouldn't, in all likelihood, help in 2013 except perhaps to provide hope for 2014. Is a creative contract possible that is good and fair for both team and player? I don't know. But I wouldn't be upset if they made a fair, creative offer. Obviously, he couldn't be the only pitcher pursued to help the 2013 team.

Actually, I disagree. Unimpressive is a list of in-house candidates where the #1 pitcher listed is a number 3 guy for an average rotation. In my opinion, the 16 players I listed would all be better than what the in-house list would provide. Including the 32 year old formerly known as the 29 year old Fausto Carmona. And as far as discernible hopes...help me out if I'm following you right. The Twins are bad and have no discernible hopes. Therefore, they shouldn't attempt to sign players to try to get better? Players will sign where they a) can get the most, like the area - i.e., family stuff, c) can win. Hopefully, all three of these things. But, like all people, they don't live in an ideal world and don't always get everything they want. Shaun Marcum would be a huge improvement for the roster, but he also spends a fair amount of time on the DL. Would I still like him for 24-28 starts per year? Um...YES. He's not a world beater, but he's WAY better than the in-house options. Brandon McCarthy? Same story. It's not a flawless list, but to call it unimpressive is disingenuous. For if it was a flawless list and therefore "impressive", according to your logic, those guys wouldn't want to play here anyway. The Twins need outside help. They need at least two guys and maybe three from this list. Three is a pipe dream, I know. But two? Or one from this list and a trade that brings an equivalent type of pitcher? That is necessary. Also, if you want to see unimpressive, you should see the list of free agents who I would prefer they do not pursue.

This is a great list if we are trying to figure out who the 4th and 5th starters will be for the squad next year. It is an OK list if we are trying to figure out who the 3rd, 4th, and 5th starters will be for next year. Come on Pipe Dream/3 FA starters! FA's (age) who I would either love or be OK with pursuing (assuming options aren't picked up): Scott Baker (31) - $9.25MM club option Scott Feldman (29) - $9.25MM club option with a $600K buyout Gavin Floyd (30) - $9.5MM club option Zack Greinke (28) Dan Haren (32) - $15.5MM club option with a $3.5MM buyout Roberto Hernandez (32) - $9MM club option Tim Hudson (37) - $9MM club option with a $1MM buyout Edwin Jackson (29) Colby Lewis (33) Francisco Liriano (29) Shaun Marcum (31) Brandon McCarthy (29) Jake Peavy (31) - $22MM club option with a $4MM buyout Anibal Sanchez (29) James Shields (31) - $9MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout Carlos Villanueva (29) But, I hear it is a "thin" FA market.

I do think run differential is important to look at for determining whether a team's record is over or underperforming. Obviously, it isn't the only thing, but go to ESPN or any other site that lists the run differential along with the standings and scroll back historically and it is plainly clear that *in general*, teams with large positive differentials are better, year in and year out. That's not to say that a team with a near-zero or negative differential can't compete, but it is the exception. DPJ chooses to call it luck and that's as accurate as a terminology as any. Call it magic or lightning in a bottle or chemistry or whatever...but it's the exception, and as mike wants win states, he doesn't want hope to be the plan going forward. That said, Nick clearly didn't mean to suggest hope was the path to take, if not in his original post then at least in his follow up responses. Interesting teams you mentioned there as many have strong similarities: most changed managers shortly before their hope-cited seasons. Team, New Manager, Year Manager took over 2012 Orioles, Showalter, 2011 2012 Pirates, Hurdle, 2011 2011 DBacks, Gibson, Mid-Year 2010 2010 Padres, Black, 2007 2009 Rockies, Tracy, Mid-Year 2009 after 46 games (18-28) 2008 Astros, Cooper, Mid-Year 2007 2007 Indians, Wedge, 2002 So of the 7 teams cited - and I'm presuming those were off the top of your head, 5 of them replaced their manager either in the season of hope or in the year before. Sometimes, a new voice can get players to perform better than the old voice. That's not saying that the managers they replaced weren't good. New 2009 Rockies voice Jim Tracy, for example, replaced old voice Clint Hurdle - who later became the new voice for the Pirates. I'm not suggesting that a change at manager absolutely turns the team around; just saying that when teams turn around after struggles, sometimes it is easier to do with a different leader. Finally, I totally agree. I'd feel much luckier with improved pitching. Diamond is not a #1 guy in 2012, nor Deduno, nor DeVries, nor Hendricks, and none of them figure to be in 2013. Pavano is not a #1 guy. A healthy Baker is not a #1 guy. If league average pitching is what is needed, the team needs a #1 and a #2 to go with the #3 (maybe Diamond), #4s, and #5s (the rest) that we have.

It also says that Ryan declared the free agent market as "thin." And there's another thread on this forum dissecting what Ryan is quoted as saying versus what Souhan might be stirring up. I'm saying I wish the quote would be "we're going to be players in every market" rather than "you're going to have to look at all the markets, not just free agency, but trades and waivers and Rule 5s." Of course you have to look at waivers and Rule 5s. But this team just leans way too heavy to trying to find a diamond in the rough as way to fill obvious holes in the rotation for my tastes. Pretend you're going to be in the market to buy an arm. If we had 4 guys penciled in the rotation to rely on for next year, I'd have no problem with the phrasing in the article. But we don't. We have one guy (Diamond) who has nearly a full season of solid history to give us full, unwavering confidence in him. Then, we have Hendriks who has a fantastic AAA resume and one complete game with the big leaguers. Then, we have Gibson and his TJ recovery and his almost certain limited innings. Then we have Deduno and his crazy fastball. Then we have DeVries, or whomever else you want to say is next. I'd love it if all of the guys became the pitchers we want them to be. But it is foolish to go into season after season hoping that this year will be the year everything comes together. I'd like more past performance - i.e., an established repeatedly good pitcher - on the squad. In fact, I'd like two so we can hope with the bottom 3 guys in the rotation, instead of the top 3. And the Twins have some money available, unless they decide that Carl Pavano and his 86 mph fastball is an established repeatedly good pitcher. If that's their evaluation, I'd rather have a turd sandwich with mustard.

Where/when did he say that? Souhan article on 8/29: http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/167784175.html "Ryan was blunt about a variety of subjects. He... * Would consider re-signing pending free-agent pitchers Scott Baker and Carl Pavano. * Doubts he will pursue any elite free-agent pitchers this winter, saying it will be a "thin" market and that he's averse to signing such pitchers to the long-term deals required to land them." and later, "You have to be open to a lot of things when you're looking for starting pitching," he said. "You're going to have to take some risks and you're going to have to look at all the markets, not just free agency, but trades and waivers and Rule 5s. But if you want to do it the correct way, that's going to provide stability over the long haul, you're going to have to draft and develop guys, too. Even when we had rotations that were darn good, we got them from about every avenue. We have to do the same thing moving forward here." ********* My problem with this is that he says you have to look at every avenue, yet he dismisses one of the avenues (free agency) with a hand wave. If we don't sign an upper tier free agent pitcher, we might as well chalk up next year as another sub .500 season, and perhaps another 90+ loss season, unless we get an upper tier pitcher through another source. Given it is unlikely to pick up an upper tier pitcher via the waiver wire or Rule 5, he's pretty much saying the only way we're getting an upper tier pitcher is via trade. In cutting deals, when you let your trading partners know you don't have any other option, that's called "tipping your hand". Can't we at least PRETEND we might throw a few bucks at a quality pitcher?

I'd agree. He was clearly tapping into irrational bull****. Go watch a movie about baseball. I think you'd be better served. Talk about irrational, bro. Bring it down a notch. You know me not. It is my opinion that anyone who doesn't, at a minimum, acknowledge that there is an emotional component to baseball, is to my mind, quite irrational. Or at least a bit out of touch with why any sport is played in the first place. Respectfully, scottz

Next exit: impasse. The OBP-stat guys look at it from a stats point of view, and I can totally see their view. I love stats myself. The more traditional/older/emotional (RBI-stat) guys look at it from the emotional point of view, and I can see their view as well. I think I land more in the emotional park on this point. You want your best hitter to strike fear into your opponent. If your best hitter is in the on deck circle, you want the pitcher aching to get out of the inning before he comes up. When he steps into the batters' box, you want the pitcher sweating. Mauer is clearly the Twins best hitter. Clearly. But I don't think opposing teams are afraid of him. They are "careful", for sure. But that's a totally different mindset. I think that is what Joe C. was tapping into. And it was mentioned earlier in this thread as well, that situations can and do dictate your approach (except they don't seem to with Mauer - he just does what he does and he's very good at it). I don't think there is a right answer here. But I would absolutely love it if Joe went up there one time and took one, just one, I'm-gonna-hit-this-ball-to-the-moon swing on the first pitch, even if he missed it by a foot and a half. Do what you will for the rest of the at bat. But let the other team know you have it in you. New topic: Do you marry the very cute, very sweet girl who likes to listen to you talk about your golf game or do you marry the super hot chick who is the life of the party and occasionally goes a little crazy if you don't pay enough attention to her. Both love you equally.

If they choose to deal him in the offseason because it is a significantly better return than for other possible trades (i.e., Span), then I'm OK with that. But I don't think it is a foregone conclusion that he will drop off the table in terms of production. He clearly is having a career year from a .SLG angle, but his .BA and .OBP are not outliers. He might drop off from this year, but given that Target Field seems to play to right-handed pull hitters (subjective - I have no stats offhand to back me up), then I have zero problem with them hanging onto him and see where we are at next year's trade deadline. There would certainly be a market for a guy who was "only" hitting .252 (he's only hit for this low of an average once in his career - 2011 in OAK) and 13 HR after 100 games (on pace for 21 over 162 - a career low for non-injured seasons). Also, I loves me The Outfield...so shaddup.

Hardly. His k/9 was 8.9, where k = R/Na.

I haven't written any articles out here, despite my best intentions when I started coming out here. I'd be interested in participating in some form of writers' group, so I'll try to stay in the loop with whatever ends up as the outcome of this thread.

"Tonight, we can count on at least one thing: the fans at Target Field are going to boo a pitcher." If you are talking about Blackburn, I agree there is a good likelihood of that. I'd be shocked if anybody boos Frankie. Why would they? He didn't trade himself.

I guess the question is whether you believe the Twins are taking lesser deals from division rivals to be chummy. I don't see a benefit to that, and I don't think that is what occurred the last two years. It makes sense to me that it is possible that a GM might interact with a division rival GM more frequently because they know each other's rosters a little more than other teams? And maybe to the extent that because you have frequent "contact" (i.e., lots of games versus divisional foes each year) that it wouldn't be a bad thing to be chummy, in general. But again, I don't think any chumminess resulted in the acceptance of a lesser deal.

Oh, I'm not saying there would be a justifiable point. And I'm not saying that Correia would be the point of the trade - there obviously would have to be more to it than that. I'm saying that I could see it happening. Correia wants to be traded. The Pirates will trade him if it makes their team better. Span would make their team better. I can see the Twins saying, "OK, rather than a good prospect, an average prospect and a low prospect, we'll take Correia and an above average prospect." And using 10 starts between now and the end of the season to decide whether they want to offer Correia a 2 year $8MM deal (which, I can totally see them doing). In no way am I justifying it, I'm saying I can see it happening.

Going back a few days, Jayson Stark declared that the Twins asking price was: Morneau (pricey) Span (more pricey) Willingham (it made Stark laugh). After seeing the result of the Liriano trade, I wonder what the Twins are asking for, given that I believe Stark also said that it was certain Liriano was going to be traded. Not that I'd be in favor, but there are a few MLB Trade Rumor headlines that make me think that these other three aren't going anywhere. The Phillies are shopping Pence aggressively, and also still have Victorino. The Indians are open to trading Choo, who would fit the bill of any team looking for a Span-type role. If Span ends up anywhere yet, I wouldn't be shocked if it were Pittsburgh, noting this headline: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/kevin-correia-requests-trade.html. Correia is a free agent after the season, so it isn't like he would be the only piece of the deal, but I can see the Twins liking a guy like Correia (who in my mind, is like Nick Blackburn when he is Blackburn is getting grounders) and trying to sign him to a similar 2 year deal he is coming off with Pittsburgh. Not what they need to do. I have no idea why I'm posting this, other than I saw the headline and got a pit in my stomach: Denard Span to Pittsburgh for Kevin Correia and an above average but not great prospect in high A or AA ball. Your thoughts, twinsdaily readers.

Starting Catcher W-L 2010 Mauer - 66-41 (.617) Butera - 22-24 (.478) Other* - 7-7 (.500) 2011 Mauer - 21-25 (.457) Butera - 30-61 (.330) Other* - 18-32 (.360) 2012 Mauer - 17-25 (.405) Butera - 16-9 (.640) Other* - 12-21 (.364) 2010-2012 Mauer - 104-91 (.533) Butera - 68-94 (.420) Other* - 37-60 (.381) * Doumit, Rivera, Holm, Morales, or Ramos Small sample size likely to blame for Butera's dominance this year, especially when you consider that the Twins are playing better recently than earlier in the year. For example, if you look at the last 19 games caught by any of these 3 categories, Mauer is 10-9, Doumit is 10-9, Butera is 12-7. Still small samples, but less Butera dominance. Factor in that Butera has more frequently caught our "better" pitchers than the others would slant the records to be in his favor. I'll take the long term average and leave Mauer behind the plate.

To answer the question as posed, Span - even though I'm a big fan - for no additional reasons not already stated earlier.

It occurred to me that the question isn't necessarily "are runners directly getting thrown out?", but instead "how often are runners advancing?" So using the same data as above, Span has 332 total holds in 737 opportunities (45.0% hold rate, 55.0% advance rate) while Revere has 98 total holds in 229 opportunities (42.8% hold, 57.2 advance). Again projecting out using their respective opportunities/season rates: Span's 224.0 opportunities/season and hold/advance rates results in runners holding 100.8 times and advancing 123.2 times. Revere's 223.6 opportunities/season and hold/advance rates results in runners holding 95.7 times and advancing 127.9 times. So over the course of a year, runners will advance on Revere roughly 5 more times than they will advance on Span. Depending on the game situation and which type of advance scenario is occurring, that could be very significant, but statistically, it still seems rather small.

I knew I was slacking in my attention to twinsdaily, but this one really got away from me - 6 pages of replies before I got to it! I will reply as one of the vocal dissents on Revere's arm, and I will stick with my assertion that his arm is awful. A noodle, if you will. Even if you won't, I will. I am impressed with what has been done to offset this though, from my subjective viewing. I don't think his arm is any better than last year, but it appears (again, subjective) that he is getting rid of the ball as quickly as he possibly can. Additionally, the infielders (particularly the 2Bers) appear to be hustling out farther and faster than on balls hit to Revere last year to take the cut. The result, I think, has been positive. Stats are always fun, too. I won't define all the 5 baserunning situations that go into these, but they are easily discovered (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reverbe01-field.shtml). Revere (2010-2012) (CF) 145 opportunities, 57 holds (40.1%) league average 2010-2012 45.4% (RF) 63 opportunities, 29 holds (46.0%) league average 2010-2012 46.2%. (LF) 21 opportunities, 12 holds (57.1%) league average 2010-2012 63.7% For comparison, Span (2008-2012) (CF) 539 opportunities, 221 holds (41.0%) league average 2008-2012 45.6% (RF) 128 opportunities, 64 holds (50.0%) league average 2008-2012 47.1%. (LF) 70 opportunities, 47 holds (67.1%) league average 2008-2012 63.9% Items of note: 1) Both Span and Revere register as below average in holding runners from centerfield in their careers. 2) Span is above average at both corner positions, while Revere remains below average. (Though for 2012, Revere is better than the 2010-2012 league average at 48.2%.) 3) Span has 12 "Kills" in his career. That is, he as made 12 direct throw-outs of a runner trying to advance. Revere has 0. 4) Span has 8 other assists that resulted in a throw-out of a runner trying to advance. Revere has 5. 5) Therefore versus Span, runners have been thrown out trying to advance 20 times (by Span or cut-off men) in 737 opportunities (2.7%). Versus Revere, runners have been thrown out trying to advance 5 times (by cut-off men) in 229 opportunities (2.2%). None of this tells us if runners are actually taking advantage of Revere's weak arm and running more against him than against Span or anyone else. I'm not sure there are data readily available there for that, short of going through everyone's stats and calculating the number of opportunities per game. But carrying the Span/Revere data forward, Span has played in the outfield in 533 career games while Revere has played 166 in the outfield. Span's 737 opportunities over 533 career OF games = 1.383 opportunities per game * 162 games/yr = 224.0 opportunities/season. A 2.7% "kill" rate (via himself or cut-off man) means 6 outs per year. Revere's 229 opportunities over 166 career OF games = 1.380 opportunities per game * 162 games/yr = 223.6 opportunities/season. A 2.2% "kill" rate (via cut-off man alone) means 4.9 outs per year. One out difference over a season of baseball. Given that there is likely some error in the tracking of the data, that seems an amount that would be lost in the noise of the data. So Ben Revere has a noodle arm, but it sure doesn't seem to matter much. Forgive me for the data mashing, my wife and kids are out of town and this is the most uninterrupted thought I've had about baseball all season. I got carried away. I would love any comments about this "analysis" though - I was just winging this as I went. scottz

Lots of players do different things for different reasons. A pitcher strikes a guy out and points to the heavens, a batter crosses himself before stepping into the batter's box, and PJ Walters writes his baby's initials in the dirt. Beyond that, Wade Boggs ate chicken for every pre-game meal and ran in as close to the same pattern as possible out to 3rd base every time. Turk Wendell ballet-leaped over the foul lines, chewed black licorice on the mound, and brushed his teeth between innings. Ozzie Smith tumbled and flipped his way out to shortstop, you may recall. Which leads me to this point...who cares? Let the man honor his daughter. If MLB decides it is distracting to the game or the opponent, they'll tell him to stop and he'll honor her in another way. Why anyone at uni-watch.com (or uni-corn, uni-brow, or uni-cycle.com for that matter) is bothered by this is silly. "How dare someone act differently than I, uni-watch user, think they should! Clearly, the only reason he's doing this is for reasons I define!" Simpleton thinking.

I hadn't thought of this before, but if Oliveros throws in the low to mid-90s with a hard slider, is he someone the Twins could possibly think about as a closer in a couple of years? I had no idea he could get it up there with into the mid-90s.

I'm going to second this. I really enjoy reading these. Thank you!

I think these moves and prior moves (Diamond coming up) are public admission by the front office that the Willingham, Carroll, and Marquis band-aids on the knee did nothing to stop the bleeding from the wrists and jugular that is the lack of major league talent in the system. However, it still doesn't tell us a thing about what route they are planning to take for the future. If Span gets traded, we'll know it is a complete re-build with a focus on a Sano-led 2016 team, and I'd expect that they would try to shop Willingham as well, and probably Morneau if he ever got healthy and started swinging. If trades of our few major league assets don't happen, that means they still think they could turn it around in 2013/2014 with well-placed free agent acquisitions (requirements: 2 front end starters and perhaps a 3B). If it's 2016, what the roster will look like is anyone's guess. If it's 2013, C - Mauer 1B - Morneau (if healthy) or Parmalee 2B - Carroll or Casilla SS - Dozier 3B - FA help or Carroll LF - Willingham CF - Span RF - Mastro or Komatsu or whoever "wins" the job in 2013 spring training. SP1 - FA SP2 - FA (I'd prefer this not to be Pavano, but rather they make a run at someone on the market, but they may argue for Pavano if they can get him on a club friendly 1 year FA deal...maybe $6MM) SP3 - Blackburn SP4 - Gibson SP5 - Hendriks or Diamond or Walters or DeVries I don't know about you guys, but that sure doesn't look like something the Twins would do (2 FA pitchers and a FA 3rd baseman), and even if they do, unless the FA pitchers are a 1-2 combination of James Shields and Anibal Sanchez, I don't know that THAT team competes either. The only way this team is competitive 2014 or earlier is through free agent acquisitions. If that isn't their plan, everyone had better start wrapping their heads around 2016 as a target.

I don't know what it would take, but I would love to have him here. Unfortunately, the Angels depth is OF and that is likely the Twins depth as well. Parmalee would have to get sent down. The more I think about what it would take, I'd rather take whatever minimal assets we have and try to convert them to pitching. I do like Trumbo, but I don't know if it is a good fit overall given all our needs. It probably depends on if the pricetag is "cheap". There, I have answered the question SO clearly, and all the Twins problems are solved. Because of those two brief, well-thought out and clear paragraphs above.

I agree. They need to know exactly what they have with Plouffe - give him 30 starts in a row in RF and evaluate after. Thomas should ride the pine during this time or be replaced by Mastroianni or really, anyone else. There's no value in having him hold down a roster spot.